ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 36%(-3), LDEM 16%(+4). This is the first poll to show a Conservative lead since March, which was also ICM.

In contrast Populus’s monthly poll in the Times has figures of CON 34%(-5), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), a big drop in Conservative support, and their higher Labour lead since, er, March.

I will do a bigger round up later on when we have all the polls from tonight. We still have YouGov for the Sun at 10pm, and a ComRes poll for the News at Ten (though that does not have voting intention).


49 Responses to “Contrasting polls from ICM and Populus”

  1. Well the only consistent so far is a slight gain in LD support. Could just be a coincidence, but I suspect not. I’m more surprised that the tories are dropping, I thought their support was pretty much consistent. Where are their lost voters going, UKIP/Others?

  2. The ICM poll result is very strange, I prefer to trust Yougov, I’ll wait for that to come

  3. Populus: Blue 34% (-5 from 39%), Red 39% (-1 from 40%), Yellow 11% (+2 from 9%), Grey 16% (+4 from 12%)
    ICM/Guardian: Blue 37% (nc from 37%), Red 36% (-3 from 39%), Yellow 16% (+4 from 12%), Grey 11% (-1 from 12%)

    TGB is holding this up as pro his LALA (and I think he’s right) but it’s an incomplete picture – as ever, you have to include the others.

    Regards, Martyn

  4. Have to admit to great surprise at the ICM numbers. -3% for Labour just doesn’t ‘feel’ right. Even if the hacking scandal wasn’t happening, there has been sufficient bad news on the economy to suggest Labour would hold, if not advance a little. Populous is more in line with the immediate news, but we just need more polls to find out the real position.

  5. I could imagine that a small sigh of relief was heard over the cheese and biscuits tonight wherever AW is dining. The Populus poll brings us back to somewhere near normality. It’s the trend that counts anyway and will be interesting to se if the LD surge :-) at a couple of points is confirmed as consistent in the YG poll.

  6. Populus’s 16% for ‘others’ is high. What’s UKIP/Green?

    P.S. Clearly to go up in the polls the LDs should continue to do absolutely nothing – which, of course, is the safest thing for all of us. :)

  7. alec

    “Have to admit to great surprise at the ICM numbers.

    -3% for Labour just doesn’t ‘feel’ right”

    In the political blogosphere perhaps…… ;-)

    To give the much maligned Rawnsley some credit- he predicted in his column yesterday that (though he was performing extremely well) EdM was unlikely to see any immediate/ medium term poll gains.

    For that we need the policy review and for him to work on his likeability amongst non-politicos.

    @Martyn

    As for LALA?? That’s just a load of LALA and- amusingly- was almost immediately contradicted by the Populus poll :D

  8. “I said I wouldn’t post, but here goes.
    Taking a single poll as gospel is a dodgy proposal – I find it hilarious when partisans of all stripes go bananas over single polls. (That isn’t meant to be a dig at the LDs, I find it funny when there’s an outlier positive to Labour and Labour partisans go bananas).
    Weighting the ICM poll against the previous month gives –
    Con 37 (+0.6), Lab 37.2 (-1), Lib 14.3 (+1.1)
    Tories have been trending upward since January, Labour have been down, up and now down again, Libs have been trending down since January except for the latest poll.
    So I would say the latest one is a bit of an outlier – but we’ll see next month.
    If Libs are up next month with Lab down, I’ll call it a trend.

    (Sorry for the repost, just thought some might be interested in actual poll numbers..)

  9. Lib Dems being happy with 11%. Wow.

  10. Tingedfringe (and D Smith)

    Taking a single poll as gospel is a dodgy proposal – I find it hilarious when partisans of all stripes go bananas over single polls. (That isn’t meant to be a dig at the LDs, I find it funny when there’s an outlier positive to Labour and Labour partisans go bananas

    Good post if a trifle harsh on us LDs.

    A week ago a number of posters were attending our funeral, and dancing on our grave.

    So for the previous YouGov, and current Populus and ICM poll which indicate we are rising from the ashes ( and picking up a few points as well) warrants a banana or two perhaps

  11. Also from Times’ Twitter:

    Has your opinion of Ed Miliband post hacking gone up or down or unchanged. Up: 14, Down: 20, Unchanged 61

    Has your opinion of David Cameron post hacking gone up down or unchanged. Up: 4 per cent. Down 39 per cent. Unchanged 55 per cent.

    Has your opinion of Nick Clegg post hacking gone up down or unchanged. Up: 4, Down 27, Unchanged 65.
    ——————————————–
    I’m reposting this, provided by Tristan Perry on the other thread because I think it is interesting.

    EM -6 for being seen as opportunistic by Dems & a pain in the @ss by Tories.

    DC -35 ouch! but he’ll get a lot of chances to rebound from it.

    NC -23 for not getting in ahead of Ed M? Or for being too supportive of Labour from a Tory perspective?
    8-)

  12. Populus weighted against previous month –
    Con 36.1 (-2.1), Lab 39.4 (-0.2), Lib 10.2 (+0.4)

    Libs have been on 11 (except previous poll) since February. Cons on about 36 since Feb (except previous poll). Lab on about 39 since Feb (except previous poll).
    So for Populus ‘no change’?

  13. “So for the previous YouGov, and current Populus and ICM poll which indicate we are rising from the ashes ( and picking up a few points as well) warrants a banana or two perhaps”
    I think for the LDs – and I’m honestly trying to be non-partisan here – is that they’re in the tricky position as far as their association with the Tories.
    Go too anti-Tory and gain voters but risk the coalition.
    Go too pro-Tory and hold the coalition but risk the voters.

    Tough choice to make – LDs can’t afford a GE now, but they can’t afford not to distance themselves before they’re viewed as too intertwined.
    Hope that’s fair.

  14. @Rob

    Oh, are you two arguing again… :-)

    TGB opines that if you add together the Red and Yellow scores, the sum is reasonably constant. I agree, but I think it’s artefactual. I think the real story is not the RBY values, it’s the others, who are consistently high for this stage of the electoral cycle.

    Regards, Martyn

  15. @ Tinged Fringe

    I find it funny when there’s an outlier positive to Labour and Labour partisans go bananas
    ————————————-
    I like going bananas when Labour have a good poll. It’s fun & it makes me happy. :-)

  16. Now all you poll veterans

    Is this sort of disparity a sign of voters making up their minds? A sort of flux before a sort of group decision?

    Maybe so much is happening so quick that many people (us partisans excepted) can’t decide WHAT they think, exactly.

    A sort of “wait and see” wild fluctuation.

  17. Taking the ICM at face value, it appears that the furore may be hardening support in the Tory heartland. There’s a certain inevitability to this, an almost siege-like mentality that takes over when “the other sude” goes directly for their King, without so much as an opening gambit.

    And, while it may not quite leave us in the polldrums, it undoubtedly has done little more than preach to the converted on both sides. Stalemate.

    As for the LD’s, a shift in enphasis to coalitional confrontation since local election day is reaping a handsome dividend.

  18. ALEC

    “there has been sufficient bad news on the economy to suggest Labour would hold, if not advance a little”

    Does bad economic news =Labour VI gain?

    Not convinced-not for a few years yet anyway- was not aware that the Labour economic record had disappeared from the public perception just yet.

    …………….another thought…………in so far as the average voter absorbs international economic news-what might they perceive as the major factors at present?:-

    USA- jobs still a problem-borrowing beginning to prompt credit risk questions-politicians arguing over total government debt levels.

    Eurozone-Chaos-Greece, Ireland & Portugal being bailed out-Italy cutting government spending drastically-austerity the order of the day-unsustainable debt servicing costs & public disorder…..? failure of the Euro.

    UK- Do we seem in fact to be better off than much of the above?

  19. MARTYN

    ” but I think it’s artefactual”

    It usually is over there :-)

  20. Amber

    “I like going bananas when Labour have a good poll. It’s fun & it makes me happy”

    Bless :-)

  21. How interesting…..both polls showing a significant recovery by LDs. Not quite what one would have expected.

    Might we be seeing economy + strikes + News Int (the three biggies of the past month) adversely affecting both Con and Lab to the benefit of LDs? There is a sign in there of disaffection with both Con and Lab.

  22. Tinged Fringe
    ‘Tough choice to make – LDs can’t afford a GE now, but they can’t afford not to distance themselves before they’re viewed as too intertwined.
    Hope that’s fair’

    Yes.

    LDs cannot afford an election because we have still not recovered from ‘tuition fees’, and in addition we are still saving up our pennies.

    Until the various inquiries indicate any serious misdeeds, it would be quite wrong to distance ourselves from the Tories.

    We do not need to distance ourselves from Murdoch and others as they never invite us to their dos anyway. I would not mind 5 weeks on a health farm, except I would have to pay.

    The local elections did damage morale and a few favourable polls will give us quite a boost.

    Perhaps 11% is not great, but the 16% was as exciting as unexpected. It is a reasonable mid election score for us in normal times. These are not normal times, as we did shoot ourselves in the foot over tuition fee promises and by forming a Coalition Govt we have lost some of the usual protest vote support.

    So the dilemna may not be as big as you suggest. I suspect that Nick will give his support to DC while remaining silent on unproven asccusations. Vince will do the same, except with a big smile on his face.

  23. The Metropolitan Police said that Alex Marunchak -a former NoW journalist , had been employed as a Ukrainian language interpreter with access to highly sensitive police information between 1980 and 2000.

    Scotland Yard said it recognizes “that this may cause concern and that some professions may be incompatible with the role of an interpreter” and the matter will be looked into.

  24. Henry,
    I didn’t mean ‘close to the Tories’ over hackgate. I meant ideologically close to the Tories.
    I think hackgate will be over soon, as far as the public are concerned.

    Almost all of the lost 2010 LD voters, as far as I can tell, are left-wing – being too close to the Tories, by being centre-right, will keep them away.

  25. Colin

    Not to mention Spain

    And because of prudence (we must have caught it when Gordon threw it away), we are not paying the high interest rates on our massive debts, which these other countries have got to pay.

  26. @Henry, Tinged Fringe
    It does appear, for the.moment at least, that NC has DC by the, erm…collar!

  27. Tinged Fringe

    “I think hackgate will be over soon, as far as the public are concerned.”

    I don’t think so.

    You will have to wear ear plugs, switch your TV off & stop reading the papers to escape the rolling reporting on all the enquiries & reviews which are now in train or in the pipeline.

    And I think Hackgate will morph into Metgate as they all start revealing their findings.

  28. HENRY

    Indeed.

  29. I would also suggest that these polls are a dose of cold reality for those recently auto-eroticizing over the rhetorical skills of “Lazarus” Miliband in sticking it to The Man.

    I’ll say it again – the public are not interested in this.

  30. Tinged Fringe

    Almost all of the lost 2010 LD voters, as far as I can tell, are left-wing – being too close to the Tories, by being centre-right, will keep them away.

    I do not think the student vote is recoverable because of Tuition fees. IMO our best chance is to back the Tories tough decisions, but to ensure that DC does a few u turns on some harsh decisions, which show our benevolent influence.

    I think few activists would contemplate a GE in the near future.

  31. I agree with Tinged on the LD dichotomy. I do see a possible ditching of Cameron, but, as so often in the past with Con, it will come from their own ranks. I see that as unlikely too. The poll performance has to go under 32 for that to happen, IMO. I doubt if tonight’s pollsters’ average for Con will be below 35 so dream on, those hoping for a palace revolution..

  32. Colin

    And so who do you think will be left with egg on their face (political party wise)

  33. On Jonathen Rees’ CV alone there is enough to keep the NotW saga going until 2015.
    And that’s before the focus shifts to connections between politicians and everyone’s favourite search engine… what have you all been searching this evening…?

  34. This is weird:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/18/mystery-bag-bin-rebekah-brooks

    Apparently somebody dumped a computer and stuff in a bin near Brooks’s house. Odd.

  35. After a couple of rough days, it quite pleasant on the site at the moment, with rather polite posts, and numerous good points raised.

    How long will it last?

  36. HENRY

    “And so who do you think will be left with egg on their face (political party wise)”

    Depends on your timescale :-)

    Short term -If DC has a good day on Wednesday-egg for ED

    If Coulson lied to DC-a whole chicken farm for Dave.

  37. @Colin

    Oh lord, I may have used the wrong word. I didn’t mean to imply that TGB’s figures are made-up (they obviously aren’t). What I meant was adding R+Y together and noting that they’re constant is true but may not be meaningful, particularly when you realise that R+Y+B+G=100% always. But I may be wrong.

    However, where I am *definitely* right is the ongoing surprisingly large values for the Greys (the lumped-together “others”) . Her’s my latest pwetty graph for the Greys in this part of the electoral cycle:

    h ttp://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/5930137404/in/photostream

    ICM’s 11% is a big number for the Greys, and 16% is a very big number, particularly when you consider there are no upcoming elections. This is a particularly big seam and if Red or Blue can find a way to co-opt UKIP, Greens, or the various nationalists, the 2015 election is theirs.

    Is it Virgilio who keeps pushing a Red-Green alliance on this board? He has a point… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  38. What time frame were the two polls conducted over, dear poll-geeks?

    My gut feeling is that ICM is an outlier, if only because I honestly can’t see anything that will have damaged Labour much lately. If anything, one would have guessed that Miliband taking up the Liberal anti-Murdoch banner would have solidified support from former LD floaters.

    I think the knock-ons of the hacking will have a detrimental effect on the government regardless – morale in the police must be cripplingly low, if the Sun gets dragged in then the government lose a major publicity asset (similarly with most of the other tabloids that could potentially get pulled in, since I believe that they split heavily in the govt’s favour). Even if the public isn’t interested in the story in its own right, it damages the government I think.

    It will be very interesting to see which poll (if either) YouGov backs up…

  39. @james ballie

    “guessed that Miliband taking up the Liberal anti-Murdoch banner would have solidified support from former LD floaters.”

    That’s one explanation.

    Another one is a proportion of LD to Lab defectors rediscovering Mijneer Clegg; another one is red to other defection as the scandal has reminded voters of Labours closeness most recently under Mr Brown.

    I’m sure AW will put up the sampling dates: I’d be interested to know them as well- it is an important piece of analytical information- almost as much as methodology and sample size.

  40. I’m expecting You Gov to be more or less the same as it’s been for days…but we’ll see.

  41. Fieldwork for ICM was Friday to Sunday. The Times don’t mention the fieldwork dates for Populus, but the normal pattern for Populus/Times polls is also the Friday-Sunday, so I expect the fieldwork period for the two polls was identical.

  42. YouGov/Sun results 18th July CON 37%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APPROVAL -27

  43. Latest YouGov/Sun results 18th July CON 37%, LAB 42%, LD 9%; APPROVAL -27 FULL RESULTS

    POLLDRUMS !!

  44. YouGov/Sun results 18th July CON 37%, LAB 42%, LD 9%

    So no boost in LD support tonight. There has been a decisive shift in 2010 LD vote back from Labour this week giving a 1 point increase in average VI but nowhere near the 16% we had earlier this evening.

  45. All to play for on Wednesday.

    Wonder what’s the best way to follow the Westminster shenanigans tomorrow at work?

  46. @james ballie
    Miliband has been in peoples living rooms far more than usual. Perhaps ICM is not the outlier. The delivery and supergeek persona could have put many people off. Others, with better memories perhaps remember words like, Whelan, Blunkett and Mandelson x2. They would then think that the pot was calling the kettle [email protected]

  47. “Does this snippet not show the eternal arrogance of the left ?”
    Does this snippet not show a teensy weensy bit of partisanship beyond what’s really necessary here?

    I mean, clearly Labour’s economic record, which was very debatable in terms of for example regulation and failing to balance budgets, will continue to be a factor. I think it’s worth noting two things though; that the left doesn’t only include Labour, (greens, social liberals, me, as three examples). Two, my suspicion is that Labour’s record is fading in people’s minds; at some stage the government are going to have to start taking progressively more responsibility for their own decisions. I don’t think the “because of the terrible legacy we were left by the last government” excuse can last five years with the public at large.

  48. Also, apologies for doublepost:
    “The delivery and supergeek persona could have put many people off.”

    YG on Sunday I believe had Miliband up several points and positive overall results on his handling of the hacking crisis. This wouldn’t tally with him putting people off more, I don’t think.

    It’s possible that the Liberals have regained some support given that Clegg also gained a bit and the anti-Murdoch agenda has long been a liberal ideal, but nevertheless I don’t think his upward move was enough to pull a 3% shift of votes off Miliband who was still 10-20 points above him overall.

  49. @Colin
    “And I think Hackgate will morph into Metgate as they all start revealing their findings.”

    ….. which will all have a big bearing on AC/DCgate!