There is a new TNS-BMRB Scottish poll for STV, presumably their last of the campaign. Fieldwork was condicted between April 26th and May 2nd. Topline figures, with changes from the last Scottish Parliamentary election, are as below:

Holyrood constituency: CON 15%(-2), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 10%(-7), SNP 45%(+11)
Holyrood regional: CON 16%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 9%(-2), SNP 38%(+7), Green 8%(+4)

By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the SNP 60 seats, Labour 33, the Conservatives 18, Lib Dems 9 and Greens 8, with Margo MacDonald retaining her seat (STV’s projections are almost the same, with the exception of Margo). Needless to say, this would be a fantastic result for the SNP and a disaster for Labour, but it’s important to note that no other Scottish poll has shown Labour doing even nearly as badly as this.

Of course it may be that we get some more final call Scottish polling tomorrow that shows a similar picture, but until then I’d advise scepticism about a poll showing an outlandish result that was conducted over a double bank holiday weekend. The polls are certainly showing the SNP with a solid lead over Labour, but an 18 point lead? We’ll see.


64 Responses to “Final TNS Scottish poll shows 18 point lead for SNP”

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  1. Just found out on twitter that Paddy Power is now paying out (today anyway) on SNP most seats and Alex Salmond as FM. Astounding before polls open.

    Anyone else get a taste? I got 5/2 on most seats.

  2. @Stuart

    Yes of course I meant ‘W Lothian’, but then I would not have been able to get my little quip about ‘Musclebound’.

    It was all meant to be tongue in cheek anyway, just a little fed-up with all the Scottish Independance chat and thought a bit of frivolity putting an ‘opposite’ point of view was needed.

    Cheers
    ;)

  3. @Denzil
    ‘There are several UK MPs who were born in the ROI and irish and EU citizens can vote in our elections’

    Did you also know that All citizens of Commonwealth countries who have leave to remain in the UK or do not require such leave can register to vote in all elections – local, UK and EU provided they are aged 16 or over (but cannot actually vote until they are 18).

    The last part is relevant when polling. Before acceptiing that the person being interviewed in entitled to be polled, the interviewer should ask not only ‘are you registered to vote’ but also ‘are you old enough to vote’.

    Before the last GE was there not a push by some parties for students of 16+ to get on the register. Maybe some of the disparity in the eventual LD vote% and that expected by opinion polls was caused by some of the LD polled voters being still too young to vote come that GE.

  4. ‘Did you also know that All citizens of Commonwealth countries who have leave to remain in the UK or do not require such leave can register to vote in all elections’

    Under this definition even the ‘Last King of Scotland’ would have been entitled. Fellow from Zambia with a name that sounds like ‘Idi(ot) I’m in, if I recall.

    ;)

  5. Idi Amin – he was from Uganda

  6. @Denzil

    ‘Idi Amin – he was from Uganda’

    So he was, just checking that someone was still awake and paying attention. He could have been on the electoral roll as well.

    Take 10 out of 10 and a big star though. ;)

  7. Frank G

    And just to complete the list of corrections. :-)

    The electoral registers for Holyrood and Westminster are different.

  8. @Oldnat

    ‘The electoral registers for Holyrood and Westminster are different.’

    Genuinely, thanks for that, I did not know, but wondered.

    Genuinely also, do you know if the same rule applies to the Holyrood Roll as to the UK Electoral Roll – namely that ‘All citizens of Commonwealth countries who have leave to remain in the UK or do not require such leave can register to vote in all elections?’

  9. FrankG

    Yes. They are included (if they are resident in Scotland). Also all EU citizens who are resident in Scotland.

    There is no provision for ex-pats to vote in Scottish elections. The electoral roll is only of Scottish residents.

  10. On ex-pats (being one), I can add that some EU harmonisation would be nice, since despite living for 23 years in Belgium (therefore no right to vote back in Scotland) and paying taxes for 23 years, I can only vote in local council and European elections and not in the provincial, regional or federal (national) elections.

    I think it is fair to be allowed to vote in the country you are resident and a taxpayer in and not elsewhere so I’m not arguing for the right to vote tomorrow in Scotland :-)

  11. moraylooninbrussels

    “I think it is fair to be allowed to vote in the country you are resident and a taxpayer in and not elsewhere”

    Seems reasonable. We all have European passports after all.

  12. final poll of polls :
    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/blog/final-poll-of-polls-confirms-snp-lead

    SNP with 59 seats (+12), Labour 42 (-4), Conservatives 12 (-5), Greens 8 (+6), Liberal Democrats 7 (-9), and Margo Macdonald would also retain her seat.

  13. @OldNat

    “I think it is fair to be allowed to vote in the country you are resident and a taxpayer in and not elsewhere”

    Seems reasonable. We all have European passports after all.’

    I think you may have misunderstood the point I hope was being made.

    Cypriots living in the UK are entitled to vote in UK Local, National and EU elections. If they live in Scotland then they can even register for Holyrood elections. UK expats living in Cyprus can register for local and EU elections but NOT National elections.

    After 16 years abroad all UK expats become ineligible for the UK electorial rolls and remain ineligible for Cyprus National elections. That is true for all Scottish expats. The only way to vote Cypriot National elections is to change your Citizenship and come a Citizen of Cyprus. Then if you have children of National Service age then they are called up for 18 months National Service even if they are in the UK studying etc.. Many Scots do NOT want to give up being Scottish and neither should they be forced to do so. Thus they become part of the ‘disenfranchised’, as far as national Voting is concerned. (Of course that doesn’t stop Cyprus from taxing us or the UK from claiming that as we were born in the UK, we must pay death duties etc. on our estates when we die and our wills being dealt with through UK courts and not Cypriot.

    This disenfranchisement happens in several EU countries and Cyprus is not an exception.

    In Cyprus it seems even unfairer, because all Cypriots remain eligble to still vote in Cypriot National elections even if they register for UK and maybe Holyrood ones. Voting is compulsory and there are even plolling stations set up in the UK and in other places such as Embassies. The political parties for Presidential elections even charter planes to fly back their supporters to enable them to vote. If you take this up with the Cypriot authorities they claim it is they who are correct and UK that is incorrect in deleting us from UK electoral rolls.

    So you see it is NOT a level playing field throughout the EU in National Elections. The UK interprets the rules very ‘laxly’ for ‘foreigners’ in eligibility to vote and very harshly against its own nationals on the assumption that other countries will do the same. I can assure you other countries are generally very restrictive about voting in their national elections.

    As for your European passport comment that will certainly earn your a few laughs if you tried to register out here using that. You are not eligible to anything from the Cypriot state, medical, natinal health service, welfare, car registration etc unless you have registered and received a ‘yellow Slip’ form to prove you have sufficient funds annually to prove you and your family will not be a burden on the Cypriot economy. Cypriot ID card only I’m sorry to say and they have stopped non-Cypriots from being eligible any more for these Cypriot ID cards no matter how long they have been out here.

    Sorry but It is neither fair nor reasonable outside the UK world.

  14. New Yougov figures here (posted from twitter) show SNP lead much tighter

    Constituency vote :

    SNP 42% (-)
    Labour 35% (+1)
    Conservatives 11% (-1)
    Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

    Regional list vote :

    SNP 35% (-)
    Labour 32% (-1)
    Conservatives 13% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
    Greens 6% (-1)

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