Polls tonight

I’m at a meeting tonight, but there should be two or three new polls to discuss. First there is the regular YouGov/Sun poll at 10pm. Secondly the full results for the Populus poll for the Searchlight Educational Trust, covering issues like the far right and attitudes to immigration and nationality, which has got quite a lot of coverage in the last day or two, is actually being put up on their website here at 9 o’clock.

Finally – and unconfirmed at the moment – if ComRes stick to their normal timetables we should get their monthly telephone poll for the Independent tonight. Last month they were showing a nine point Labour lead (34, 43, 10).

I’m not around, but as ever feel free to use this thread to discuss the polls as they appear.

34 Responses to “Polls tonight”

  1. Survation Poll (the Barnsley Central one).

    LD 2010 voter: Lab 43%, Undecided 34%, Ukip 11%, LD 6%, Other 6% (sample size 35).

    Con 2010 voter: Con 55%, Undecided 33%, Ukip 10%, Lab 2% (40).

    Lab 2010 voter: Lab 78%, Undecided 17%, Ukip 3%, Con 1%, LD 1% (185).

    Feb 24-25 poll: Lab 66%, Con 13%, Ukip 9%, LD 6%, Other 5%, BNP 4%.

    2010 GE: Lab 47%, LD 17%, Con 17%, BNP 9%, Ukip 5%, Others 5%.

  2. Does anybody have any further details about the Survation Poll? Looks suspect to me, given that’s a very small sample size going off the 2010 voting figures.

  3. @ Anthony

    A poll about immigration being released whilst you are away… this’ll be ‘fun’. ;-)

  4. Hi Anthony and Amber,

    Might come out of lurking then ;)

  5. @Amber and Sue Marsh

    Behave. Just because the leader is away doesn’t mean he hasn’t left anyone else in charge.

    On second thoughts…

  6. I can confirm there is a ComRes poll due for official release at 10.

  7. @TGB

    But it’s a phone poll :( And a Comres one at that :(

  8. Raf,

    Do the phone one’s bugger yellows? I cant remember the difference between them…

    I suspect you’ll be on 13% with ComR so chin up! :)

  9. Who’s going to snip the partisan mice while the cat’s away?

    Sue, where have you been?

  10. TGB

    I’d rather a reliable 11%, than an unreliable 13%. Phone polling has had its day. Maybe John Curtice should try text polling :)

  11. Sergio- Have been practising world domination.
    Hello everyone :)))

  12. Raf.. if ICM are 18.. and YG are 10/11… ComR are sure to be 13… or thereabouts..

  13. For anyone interested in exploring some of the academic basis for multiculturalism, this radio programme discusses work on social identity from the 1970s:

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00yw6km/Mind_Changers_Henri_Tajfels_Minimal_Groups/

  14. Eoin

    Yes, quite probably. But a 13% from Comres wouldn’t mean a great deal. The Lab/Con difference might be interesting, but only if it shows a marked change (Lab+5 or Lab+15).

    OT: I meant to ask you.why Irish Labour is so keen to play second fiddle to the neo.Liberal Enda Kenny.

  15. Raf,

    irish Labour are a bit like the Liberal Democrats, they mostly like to pretend to be left wing :)

    But also, the blueys both in the case of Cammo and Kenny are lighter than your normal blue… so it is a bit more bearable…

    And the final reason.. the other option is so deeply unpopular ROI Labour/ Liberal Dems never really had a choice.

  16. Sue – should I take offence that you’ll only come back when I’m not here? ;)

  17. Wow, you guys really are poll junkies.

    @ Sue

    I’m glad to see you back. :)

  18. Anthony – It was the polls, not you not being here, lol

    Haven’t been able to get your site up for ages though – all month in fact – were you having a refit?

  19. So we still don’t know who Populus asked.

  20. Three days after, and still no final result in seats from Eire. STV is certainly complicated, but the whole thing is reminiscent of India!

  21. Sue – don’t know why that was. The site should have been working fine all that time (certainly the regulars have all been here ;) )

    http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog doesn’t work as an address anymore, but the main http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk address always will.

  22. Oldnat – nope, the report is up (and makes for very interesting reading – segmenting the population in terms of their attitudes towards immigration), but the actual Populus tables aren’t. I expect they’ll go up on Populus’s own website tomorrow.

  23. Virgilio

    I was looking up the differences between the Irish counting methodology and ours.

    Turns out that the Irish chose not to adopt the STV Rules for manual counting to give effect to the Weighted Inclusive Gregory Method of transferring surpluses, with candidates’ votes recorded as integer values.

    Obvious really. I should have thought of that. :-)

  24. Virg,

    We’re Irish, we like to take our time about these things…

    SF will get 2 more.. Wicklow/Laois…

  25. We Irish like to keep simple matters complicated…I’d say and vice versa but that may complicate matters unecessarily.

  26. Survation sound like a polling company sponsored by the Salvation Army….so its results may apply to the next life rather than this….

  27. India though uses FPTP though I think. When I was in graduate school (for a whole semester), I wrote a term paper on their 2004 election. The reason it takes so long to count there is because the country is so large and the electorate is so massive that with current technology, it would be impossible to have everyone vote on the same day. So the election is divided up (I forget whether people know about the election results before the last election takes place or if they’re barred).

  28. @OldNat
    Thanks for the update
    We Greeks/French/Italians as well. Thanks for the update too. My final prediction is FG 75, LAB 37, FF 19, SF 15, ULA 5, OTHERS 15. (Of course my comparison with India was a benign joke, I have profound respect for both Ireland and India for what they represent culturally in the world).

  29. C36%, L43%, LD10% -25%Approval

  30. @ Eoin

    “We’re Irish, we like to take our time about these things…”

    It takes the state of California nearly 4 weeks to completely finish counting its election results. The precinct results are usually completely counted all on election night or by the next morning. 4 weeks (not all the counties take that long but it takes basically that long for the final stragglers of the 58 to finish up). But the count of vote by mail (or absentee) ballots and provisional ballots takes an exceedingly long time. This is rather annoying when an election is close. So a few days for the Irish is nothing. :) You’re quick by comparison.

  31. Anthony – I just kept getting a dead page saying you were going to do updates.

  32. Sue,

    I had similar problems getting the rather strange message ‘Sorry, but you are looking for something that isn’t here’. In my case I had the /blog page rather than the main page in Favourites.
    Then when I chanced upon a link to ukpr it had gone multi-coloured – well, it had actually gone red.

  33. The Searchlight Educational Trust poll makes for interesting reading.

    It divides each respondent into one of six categories: I, a white Englishman who is very happily resident in the town of Southall, would undoubtedly fall into the “Confident Multiculturalist” group. This is the most extreme liberal/progressive segment on issues relating to race and immigration.

    Interestingly, it is also the smallest of the six groups – at only 8% of the electorate. Actually, given the fact that I earn my daily crust by pushing leaflets through people’s letterboxes, this presumably makes me a “DE”: only a bare 5% of my social class are designated “Confident Multiculturalists”.

    On the other hand, DEs appear to be over-represented among the most culturally right wing segment – the “Active Enmity” group.

    Overall, however, the report finds that social class is not, on its own, a useful predictor of where people are likely to stand on issues of race, culture and immigration: a variety of other factors, including happiness and confidence about the future, seem to come into play – as does whether the respondent is a graduate, post-graduate or neither.

    On a more general note, the report states that “social class has lost much of its importance in determining voting behaviour”. This is certainly true if you compare the ABC1 vs. C2DE crossbreaks on a voting intention poll from the 1980s to a similar one today. Why should this be?

    I would contend that it is largely because of the very “cultural” issues highlighted in the SET poll: attitudes to things such as race, immigration and religious minorities – and I would add other things such as gay rights and perhaps crime and punishment to that list – tend to cut across class lines.

    People these days probably vote more on these sorts of values issues than they do on the old criteria of class identity, industrial relations and trade union rights (which may have been more important in the days when the UK had a much larger industrial working class).

    Would it be correct to say that a similar electoral realignment has already taken place in the U.S.? Poor southern states with large blue collar voting blocks – such as West Virginia and Arkansas – have moved firmly into the Republican column in recent presidential election cycles, and this has happened largely because of attitudes towards such things as abortion or race. Meanwhile, affluent liberal north eastern states like Vermont and Connecticut, despite being fiscally conservative, have trended in the opposite direction.

    The SET poll does highlight a strong association in the electorate’s mind between the Labour Party and minority ethnic groups, for example 45% of lost Labour voters consider that “the Labour Party most want to help immigrants and non-white Britains”.

    Such perceptions are bound to be causing a shift in voting patterns in this country (and, dare I say it, would probably account for some of the apparent loss of Labour strength in the outer London/Essex borders?).

    Overall, an excellent poll by Populus and the Searchlight Educational Trust. I’ve barely skimmed the findings. Well done to both!

  34. Old Nat . you are lucky, my Pensioners haircut is £7.00. As to buses, it is a ‘voluntary’ benifit only of real benifit if you live in cities or larger towns.

    WhAT no one has mentioned, those of us who live off the interest of our investments are in real hardship. My income is less than a five % of what it was a few years ago. I sometimes wonder, I keep the house at 12 degrees and flush the loo only twice in 24hrs