Rather a big if…

There is a new ComRes poll of Labour councillors in England and Wales out today. This is fair enough in its own terms, a respectable and apparently well conducted poll of Labour councillors, and shows that amongst Labour councillors David Miliband is a more popular choice than his brother for Labour leader. The BBC though has rather overinterpreted it…

“The ComRes poll for Daily Politics suggests the contest would go to the full four rounds of counting, if the results of interviews with 265 councillors in England and Wales were replicated amongst Labour members across the country.”

Yes, if the views of Labour councillors in England and Wales were representative of normal Labour party members (including those in Scotland) then indeed it would go to all four rounds, and David Miliband would win. That is, also assuming that members of affiliated trade unions and Labour MPs and MEPs voted the same way too. That is rather a big if though, and there is no particular reason to think Labour councillors are representative of the wider Labour party. It does also assume that none of the campaign since mid-August has had any effect, as the fieldwork is a month old.

868 Responses to “Rather a big if…”

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  1. amber

    there is a scottish song i really like it’s called “The great white sheep” do you know it

  2. How about “Donald where’s yer troosers”? I used to enjoy listening to that on the gramophone when I was young.

  3. Roland – @SUE
    “Food prices, there is your Labour advance in the polls,
    also fuel prices. Not these silly side issues that the public could not give a fig about.”

    Isn’t politics bizarre Floyd. DC cannot control the price of wheat , yet you are quite right that this will be bad for him. He CAN control Coulson, and I truly argue he should, but you’re also probably right that it won’t mean a fig.

  4. Colin – I may have missed some of the debate, but yews I’ll explain to you.

    The house officer forced to work 72 hour shifts that wrote me up for 1000mg of pethidine instead of 100 and very nearly killed me. It happened every day back then. I actually had a doctor fall asleep mid conversation on my bed once!!

    Of all the professions that should adhere to the WTD doctors would be top of my list.

  5. @oldnat
    aahh, thanks, you’ve just taken me back 30 years. Won the Leng Medal at primary school for singing ‘a mans a man…’

  6. Italy is without question a man!!

  7. Amber @ John Fletcher
    Oh how the socilists hate the word freedom.
    Freedom from exploitation
    Freedom from poverty
    Freedom from ill health
    Freedom from homelessness
    Freedom from needless war & strife
    Yes, socialists hate the word freedom.

    Oh how I love your posts Amber, you save me so much typing time.

  8. Sue
    “Freedom from needless war & strife”

    I take it you don’t class Blair as a socialist then?

  9. @sue
    ‘Italy is without question a man!!’

    In Europe though it is the most matriarchal society.
    All men defer to their mamma even though their image And posturing suggests otherwise.

  10. Hooded Man – How funny, I nearly went back and added “Though a man with an Oedipus complex that worships the Madonna!!

  11. @sue
    that would have worked perfectly…..

  12. “Freedom from exploitation”

    The Right accept this Freedom.
    But It is subordinate to Freedom of Choice.
    Poverty, ill health and homelessness are choices too.

  13. Just away to bed.

    On today of all days can’t not mention it …

    ….watched the Flight 93 film.

    The bravery of those people was humbling.

    They gave their lives to save lives-whilst their captors gave their lives to take more lives.

    That’s a big difference.

  14. @ Colin

    A fitting place to finish this thread. The courage of those people was truly heroic. To sacrifice themselves for the greater good by their own decision; not to wait & hope for somebody else to do something. I can only hope never to face such a thing – but if I do, to find inspiration in their example & not be found wanting. 8-)

  15. @Colin
    “We debated to a standstill I think-no blood on the floor.”


    At 6.06 pm you gave a reply to Amber, and you referred to 2003. I’m unsure whether the reply concerns the WTD.

    The UK working time regulations were introduced in the UK in 1998. The previous Con gov dithered over giving effect to the WT Directive as they did not like the working hours aspects being brought in under the ‘guise’ of health and safety.

    If I was terse in my responses to you, I apologise.

    Anyway, enough of this – I have work to do.

  16. Mike N,

    You were not terse to me. But I could tell you thought your knowledge of the matter was unappreciated or argued by those with less knowledge on the matter. Intellectual fustration it came accross as. I can spot the symptoms ;)

  17. @JOHN B DICK
    I do not claim that the very evident anti English feeling in Scotland, which has grown drastically over the last 30 odd years is due to voting intentions.

    A non sequitur than.

    However as I have stated time and again the Thatcher years coincide with greater dislike of England/The English.

    The fact that you say it frequently does not maket so.

    Others, (it may have been you)
    [it was]

    have said on this board that Conservatism is seen as an alien politics in Scotland.

    One cannot be a real Scot and a Tory, so be it.

    That’s cybenat talk, not me.

    But let us not try to pretend there is any good reason to keep the present arrangement alive due to mutual respect or “friendship”.


  18. OldNat

    If change there is to be, the ConDems should restore the verse:

    Lord, grant that Marshal Wade
    May, by thy mighty aid,
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush
    And, like a torrent, rush
    Rebellious Scots to crush.
    God save the King

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