Tonight’s YouGov voting intention has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. This is the lowest Liberal Democrat level of support recorded since straight before and after the resignation of Menzies Campbell, back in 2007. I’m slightly wary about focusing too much on extremes in polls, almost by definitions they are likely to be outliers, nevertheless, the downwards trend in Lib Dem support is there, slow but relentless.

337 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 43/38/11”

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  1. MIKEN

    “He is IMO charismatic, articulate and pragmatic.”

    That is so.

    And even after I have listed all the things I came to dislike him for-despise him for even ; he still deserves your description.

    I was never embarrassed that he was my Prime Minister either-annoyed/frustrated/insensed-but never embarrassed.

  2. Mike N,

    Never mistake being out of sync with the rest of your party as pragmatism. Think about it… what did he ever compromise on? If I joined UKIP I would overnight be viewed as pragmatic. Why? Because policy wise I was prepared to take the UKIP party on a merry dance. Please dont make me list the zillions of things TB will never compromise on.


    A brief article in reference to a point discussed long ago. This police find happens on a fairly regualr basis. I know because this is where I grew up.

    h ttp://

  3. Richard in Norway “…a used car salesman”

    Reminds me of DC when before a party conference prior to the GE he claimed he is a salesman.

    In a way, selling yourself and your party’s beliefs/targets is essential. Before TB Lab had no one to compare or combat Maggie. I think we’d have to go back to Harold Wilson. Being able to connect easily with the voters and convey hopes and aspirations and inspire them to vote for you and your party…there are few who have those skills.

    Colin “I was never embarrassed that he was my Prime Minister either-annoyed/frustrated/insensed-but never embarrassed.”


  4. Eoin

    I understand what you’re saying, but by ‘pragmatic’ I mean that TB understood that the public needed to see that the party had changed. Removal of Clause 4 was an essential part of that change.

    Although I respect people who are passionate in their political beliefs IMO unless you’re in power you cannot deliver and fulfil aspirations etc. I value pragmatism highly in our leader(s).

  5. I’m going dark now.

  6. Hmmmm, Amber, I am watching BBC2 through your eyes and I don’t like what I see very much.

  7. I’m back home after the first day back at school for the new year. The talk is dominated by “cuts”, they have made the entire cleaning staff redundant, slashed the teaching assistants and cut out the school canteen in favour of “grab and go” because it was making a now unsustainable loss, amongst other staff and this is even before the CSR.

    On the vote match test I got

    DM 27%
    EM 59%
    EB 65%
    DA 72%
    & AB 80% ok I made that one up.

    On William Hague it is a nothing story based on the fact that he shared a room with his aide whilst campaigning, note room not bed. Felt sorry for him divulging so much of his private life unless it was a cynical public sympathy ploy

    On TB Aaaargh enough said!!!

  8. @ Eoin

    I try to read the Telegraph intermittently, they seem anti-everything at the moment. Not sure where it comes from, for example the expenses crisis was almost as big a disaster for the Tories as for Labour. IMO they hyped the whole affair out of all proportion. They even seem to be giving the tea party movement some positive coverage…

    Much as I find the Mail distasteful it can be a good barometer for populism – the last Government seemed to pander to Dacre et al quite a bit.

  9. It’s all down to Cameron’s baby!

    Here’s the evidence!

  10. Michael V,

    Yes I agree with you. Populism is not an oxymoron. As tateful as some populism is, it is what it is and you have to try and respect it.


    Your scores were very close to mine :)

  11. We’ve had Cash for Questions and Cash for Peerages. Now it’s Jobs for Jobs.

  12. @ Martyn

    Why are you using Australia as a good example of AV in action? The Greens got 11+% of the national vote and how many seats did they win? One. The same as what FPTP delivered our Greens, who got 1%. In fact it makes it that much harder for smaller parties to gain seats, because they need to be in the top 3 for it make any effect (a 2nd preference to the Greens here in the UK for example, will be useless in most constituencies as they’ll be already disqualified early on), and even then they’ll need 50% – something Caroline Lucas may not have achieved, and something very few minor parties can guarantee.

    You denigrate the anti-Lib Dem reason, but it makes perfect sense: the only party who’ll actually benefit from AV is the Lib Dems, because of their third position and their centrist appearance helping them pick up a lot of 2nd preference votes from both Labour and the Tories – which presumably they knew and so wasted their one chance to gain electoral reform on this piss-weak alternative. As a leftist the last thing I want our politics to become is more centrist. Besides it’s debatable how ‘centrist’ these Orange Bookers are, and I for one don’t feel like strengthening a party who I can no longer trust.

  13. @ Eoin

    I think our position on the politicl compass were fairly similar too, Economically left wing but leaning more socially conservative. My impression is that of the male candidates the Miliband’s are the most socially liberal.

  14. Graham BC,

    Yes I would agree. On family and societal matters I am quite conservative. I suppose AB fits best with that.

    I am certainly not hip and cool with it, in the sense that DM is. Our society is broken.

  15. Eoin

    Thanks for that link.

    It didn’t produce anything via Google.

  16. i’ve just been reading extracts from TB’s book

    i can feel a rant coming on

    i think i’ll go for a walk

  17. I have to say it: a masterclass from Blair on Andy Marr just now.

    It was like being back in 1995-6 and realising that the Tories were extremely burnt toast.

    Things that stand out (for me at any rate):

    * The (continued) threat of a medieval imperialist Islam’ism not just in the middle east but around the world: a threat that has to be fronted up now rather than shrunken from. Because- if the latter- we will pay with more blood and treasure 20-30 years down the line.

    * Public Policy that is rooted in the future and not the 20th century (‘traditional values in a modern setting’ basically)

    * Avoiding the rhetorical trap of ‘Tory cutters Lib collaborators’

    * Asserting that ‘holding the centre ground’ is about Cameron copying us not us copying them

    * That Labour has “a historical choice” today: to repeat the mistakes of the past and transition- if only rhetorically- to the left and therefore choose to lose one perhaps two more elections. The choice we have made before. Alternatively- to push Cameron back towards his base by being the centrist agenda setters ourselves rather than allowing Cameron and Clegg- however disingenuously- to claim this role for themselves.

    I actually think Blair would be happy with AB or DM. But it’s not his choice it’s for current Labour members.

  18. Political memoirs are best read a decade after everyone involved has been out of office. It’ll save your blood pressure.

  19. Eoin please could i ask with the greatest respect what you mean when you say that our society is broken?

  20. EB 43
    DM 56
    EM 56
    DA 63

    Well well. EB is actually my first choice and DA my last.


    When I first came across this site about 18 month ago, a Tory majority of 70+ seats looked likely. There were a lot of Right leaning posts and at times it seemed to me like an extension of Conservative Home.
    I think things ebb and flow. I’m sure there are many Righties waiting in the wings, although, interestingly, we gals all seem to be of the Left. :-)

  21. This is getting complicated. The Tories are claiming that TB supports their economic policies. Presumably they think that’s a good thing.
    So Tories now think that TB was a good PM? Or just his economic policies were good? Economic policies which of course were controlled by Gordon Brown. So they now like GB too?
    To confuse matters even more, all the Labour candidates on the other hand are falling over themselves to distance themselves from TB and his policies. But they are also distancing themselves from GB too. Who is supposed to be the antithesis of Blair. Or something.
    I’m confused.

  22. @ Julian Gilbert

    “So Tories now think that TB was a good PM?”

    You’d only have to watch DC’s toe-curling farewell speech to TB in PMQs to get the answer to that ;)

  23. Here are my scores, belatedly..

    DM 65%
    EM 54%
    EB 53%
    DA 38%

  24. “As a leftist the last thing I want our politics to become is more centrist.”

    Craig, that is natural enough, but it does nothing for your argument against AV, except as a partisan one. Martyn and I have explained the natural justice postion of supporters of the Bill. Nobody claims AV is any form of PR but merely a fairer FPTP, the last P being 50%.

    If NC had been offered a referendum on PR he would have course have jumped at it but the scowling Labour negotiating team would not countrenance it.

    They didn’t have the guts to put it to the British people which, to his credit, DCat least is on AV, even though he disagrees with it, (but clearly not too fanatically).

  25. @ Julian

    No need to be confused. The Tory Party has become the Tony Party – Cameron’s team are all Blairites.

    And they are all ganging up on Gordon Brown because it gives them a common ‘enemy’. This cements their little ‘love-in’, regardless of whether it is logical or not. ;-)

  26. Amber – I hardly dare post on DM now, but you mentioned earlier that you’d enquired about the Movement for Change programme and the Future Leaders.

    I found no selection process whatsoever. They seem keen for as many people to take part as possible.

    I did have a few emails go astray – there doesn’t seem to always be a join up between the leadership campaign people and the M4C people, but once they got my message, it wasn’t rationed in any way, everyone who wants to gets to do it.

    I found it very helpful and would like to discuss the programme, but I’m aware that too much damage has been done on this site to have a balanced discussion on DM.

  27. Good evening Neil. I am afraid I typecast you earlier as probably scoring the same as I. But I was right it seems.

    My point was that this is why DM will strike fear into the opposition (including NC).

  28. @ Sue

    Hmmmm, Amber, I am watching BBC2 through your eyes and I don’t like what I see very much.
    People change – & not always for the better. 8-)

  29. I barely recognised him Amber.

  30. Sue
    It’s a pity that we can’t do ‘side posts’. I would love to hear your thoughts on M4C as I belive it is opinion-related and thus suitable for this site. Anything that might affect the polls is interesting to me, even that people want to string up the cat woman.

  31. @ Howard

    Lib Dem negotiating team were sure their destiny lay with Cameron and Osboune, however, the last throw with Labour was for *legislation* on PR not a referendum. That demand did give rise to scowls.

    and while I’m about it…

    @ Eoin – David Miliband has stated he is willing to serve in the shadow cabinet under another leader.

  32. @ Sue

    I am not anti-DM. Note my comment to Colin earlier – I think DM would like to go back to 1997 & start the third way again.

    That is not a bad idea. If Blair had remained committed to the third way, there never would’ve been factions within the Labour Party.

    Channel 4 leadership discussion was good to watch. I think the Labour Party is in good shape. 8-)

  33. @Howard

    There seems to be a desire for Lib Dems to blame their membership of the Coalition on Labour’s ‘scowling negotiating team’. Certainly this is the line my Lib Dem MP is trotting out in his leaflets.

  34. Evening Howard,

    Although DM seems to fit my politics best, I don’t think I could bring myself to actually like him. He delivers his lines with such an odd demeanour. The person he reminds me of most is John Redwood. A great team member perhaps but not really leadership material.


    There is an element of exculpation perhaps with the LibDems blaming the Labour negotiators, but there is also a fundamental point underlying that.

    For a Rainbow Coalition government to have been even a possibility it would have taken a degree of commitment, skill, tolerance and compromise on behalf of the negotiators that it would have made the current Coalition look like a sportsman’s bet.

    If I was on the LibDem team, I would have wanted to see 100% full-on determination to succeed from Labour before I would have even considered a proposal. Five years of persuading Salmond to play ball without paving the streets of Glasgow with gold would taken a near-miracle to achieve.

  35. valerie

    the dems are hardly going to blame themselves, that would be politically foolish

    but i agree to an extent that it may be unfair

    neil A makes a very good point

    i would also point out that dems are a little wary of labour they feel that they have been let down before

  36. @Sue Marsh – “I hardly dare post on DM now…”

    Read a reference to “… the reinforcing and punishing verbal bombardment that introverts receive…” today.
    Not that I see you as particularly introverted, or easily intimidated. ;)

  37. Neil A
    I am struggling with the notion of John Redwood being a ‘team member’. In fairness you did not connect 100% your two sentences, so perhaps I have made 5 from two and two.
    I always thought JE was a member (the sole one) of the JR Party.

  38. JE s/be JR deary deary me.

  39. “Certainly this is the line my Lib Dem MP is trotting out in his leaflets.”
    wrote Valerie. Must be right then!

    I do not understand Labour. They had a chance to swing it. Offering a referendum on PR would have swung it and the nationalists would have also come on board. We know a substantial influence in Labour knows that PR is just and this was the moment to grab the chance.

    We know there isn’t a cat’s whisker to put between Labour’s CSR and the one we’ll see from Con Lib.
    AD told us so ages ago.

    So reform is where it’s at politically.

  40. As an aside I’ve just read William Hague’s statement, and it’s a very sad state of affairs when someone is forced into discussing very personal details of their marriage because of malicious nonsense espoused by an idiotic blogger.

    I’m not at all convinced by talk that DM will be a Blairite. I would prefer a more centrist approach but believe I may be dissapointed, whoever gets into power. We’ll see though, no need for pessimism yet!

  41. @ Howard

    “We know there isn’t a cat’s whisker to put between Labour’s CSR and the one we’ll see from Con Lib.
    AD told us so ages ago.”

    From all the reports I have read we’re talking about £35bn + in additional cuts – a little more than a whisker, one might argue!

  42. Maybe if Labour had been met with Lib Dems who were generally interested in a rainbow coalition one might have occured but NC CL and CH had set the course, the make up of the negotiating team shows this, mostly right leaning Dems, Clegg wanted a tory coalition

  43. Maybe if Labour had been met with Lib Dems who were generally interested in a rainbow coalition one might have occured but NC CL and CH had set the course, the make up of the negotiating team shows this, mostly right leaning Dems, Clegg wanted a tory coalition.

  44. Michael V

    Yes-deperately sad in the circumstances. Politics is a dirty game.

    I’m not convinced either-but he is as close as TB is going to get.

  45. Ann,

    Sorry for the late reply.

    I believe the UK is a place where far to many people are lonely. I am not a politician and never will be but if I was it would be no.1 in my manifesto. I know a lot a lonely people and spend too much time fretting about them. The state is great but it is faceless. We need some human to human contact and the state does not provide that. When you deal with the state you deal with professionals (extremely useful and indispensible) but they are not your friends. nor can they be for if they are they would get the sack.

    Old people should not fear death. They should not have to sell their home so someone can wipe their butt. Young people should know if they ace exams they will get the financial help they need to get a degree. I have seen far too many good students miss out on agrade or two due to a part time job. Hard working people should not have to join a ten year housing list or live with mum and dad. I interviewed one woman who or her marriage night slept in the same childhood bed she grew up in. (she concieved three of her children in it). A society that cannot look after the old, our students and families starting out, is not fit to call itself a society. Added to that we have faceless and nameless neighbours. We have churches and we have chairities that want to help but do not know who to help since they have so little of the anecdotal data that used to alert them to the needy. High rises were abuse is hidden and flats that rotate its tennant half a dozen times a year. I could go on and on but I am sure I am boring you at this point.

  46. Gov. approval is atrocious. We are seeing some fluctuations these days. Probably requires a couple in a row to make head nor tail of it.

  47. eoin

    the state is not completely faceless or inhuman

    i know from own experience that there are many wonderful social workers out there doing their best to make a difference(don’t laugh, they are good people)

    they had a scheme when i was a teenager where they found responsible people to befriend troubled youths. it certainly helped me

  48. Richard,

    It is always good to hear of a good news story. We are trying something at Queen’s at the moment where we ask the students to befriend a local pensioner. Piecemeal I know but your right – every success is one less Societal outcast.

  49. I have some sympathy, Eoin, but only up to a point. There is something about your story of a woman who couldn’t afford to leave home having three children that sort of answered it’s own question, really.

    I don’t necessarily think it’s always the “state” or even society at large that’s become faceless. I think the way some people’s lives have gone has isolated them from the people around them. Policy may have had a hand in the way people’s lives have gone, I accept, but there is truth in the old American adage “You’re never too poor to pick up your yard”.

  50. Eoin,
    Thank you for your detailed and sensitive response.I appreciate the points you are making but there are many good things in our society as well,as i am sure you appreciate.However we must always strive to improve and go forwards.

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