An update on YouGov’s Welsh Assembly polling for ITV earlier in the week. YouGov now also have the regional figures on their website here, so along with the constituency figures we already had, the full figures are:

Assembly constituency vote: CON 20%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, Plaid 22%
Assembly regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%, Plaid 20%

By my calculations I reckon on a uniform swing this would result in Labour 28 (up 2), Plaid Cymru 12 (down 3), Conservatives 11 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (up 2).

Labour should win Clwyd West and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives would get back a seat in North Wales on the regional vote at the expense of Plaid. The same would happen in Mid and West Wales, with the Conservatives losing a constituency but getting it back at the regional vote, again at the expense of Plaid. In south Wales Central, the Conservatives would lose 1 regional seat to the Lib Dems, in South Wales East Plaid would lose one to the Lib Dems.

Voting intention in the referendum on law making powers for the Welsh assembly stands at YES 48%, NO 34%.

26 Responses to “YouGov/ITV Wales poll – UPDATE”

  1. If Labour cn pick up another couple of points they could get a one or two seat overall majority. This is excellent news for all in Wales but not so good for the coalition.

  2. Not followed it too closely but my impression is that the coalition in Wales has been working well anyone have an opinion on that.

  3. With the massive Labour history in Wales, if this is the best they can do, in the light of the present Tory/Lib cuts, they are finished. Next thing you know, Newcastle will be a Tory stronghold.

  4. A moment of personal sadness.
    This is roughly the system we should have where people feel that a local as well as party system is desirable. How I envy the Welsh and Scots and how it makes me feel as though i am living in some ruritanian electoral wilderness.

  5. This is good news for Labour. They currently have no leader and the ConDem cuts have not yet taken effect. Once these two situations are in place, Labour will bounce back!

  6. This poll confirms, that with Labour falling off the cliff nationally recently,
    The torys are now resurging ahead and in Landslide territory!
    Exciting Times!

  7. Wales don’t matter anyway .. It’s only a field with a few houses around but a lotta sheep.. Bahhhhhh!

  8. Poll Prediction;
    C 44 Lab 29 Lib17

  9. It does seem that Wales would like to get what Scotland has, while Scotland wants a little more.

    Is this a slippery slope? Is it bound to lead to independence by salami slice?

  10. Oh look, do my eyes deceive me or is that a YouGov 38 I see?

    Look! Over there, on the right. 30th July.

    Con 42
    Lab 38
    Lib 12

    That’s got to be worth a thread surely?

    Sure, I know about the MOE stuff, but that is a trend continuing for Lab and Lib.

  11. ‘Falling off a cliff’? ‘Best they can do…’?

    This has Labour GAINING seats.

  12. Labour 28 seats – back to their 1999 level, down from the 2003 count (but with a higher share of the vote)?

  13. @Wayne – “This poll confirms, that with Labour falling off the cliff nationally recently…”

    That’s right Wayne – falling off a cliff and gaining votes. Do you have a date to go along with your 44/29/17 prediction? Notably you are now predicting a significantly lower Con score than you were a couple of weeks ago.

    @Roland – your last post was a bit odd. I’m tempted to dismiss it as humour, but with you I’m not so sure.

  14. Alec – I’ve been replying to you on the other thread!

  15. Anthony – Are there tables for the latest YouGov? I’d love to see them

  16. I dont agree with the comments that this poll is bad for Labour. At an assembly election Labour have always lost votes to Plaid and 40% would be a good score.

  17. Nobody should wish for the swings ‘n roundabouts PR system operated in Wales.

    Labour are resurgent; they will benefit in the longer term from not having “London Labour” in power at Westminster. This was a millstone round Welsh Labours neck for years. Plaid/cons/Libs all blamed “London Labour” for funding shortfalls while Welsh labour were left as half-hearted apologists.

    Both Conservatives and Liberals will lose votes and seats at the Assembly but the question is will Plaid lose votes.

    Their own vote dropped by 10,000 at the GE and although they blamed the high profile Leaders television debate for this there is some evidence in a poll before the televised debates that Plaid was suffering from the “IWJ effect”. Ieuan Wyn Jones insisted on being the front man for Plaid and he bombed!

    Plaid has been in power with Labour this term but at elections they are bitter and vitriolic in their opposition to Labour. Look at the previous yougov poll that compared voting intention of Plaid GE voters with their intention to vote in the Assembly. Plaid are visceral tribal voters; they hate the coalition in Wales and will sit on their hands.

    Alongside this the tone of Plaid has changed; “The Chosen One” is away in America and in his absence Plaid has reverted to a “Culture and language” pressure group. This is losing support in South and East Wales.. particularly the bitter Welsh Medium Versus English Medium schools battle being very publicly fought in Cardiff is making people think again about Plaid.

    I predict a majority labour government after the Assembly election.

  18. Anthony’s predictions show how objectionable any list system is. If the Conservatives put their candidates in seats they are on track to lose from individual constituencies at the head of their “top-up” lists, ordinary voters will in effect be denied their right to throw out an AM who for any reason they don’t want to see re-elected.

    I am an interested observer, because of past involvement, in the provision of English and Welsh speaking schools in the Canton area of Cardiff. But I hardly think it should have major implications for the result of the whole Welsh Assembly elections. Knowing the local community and the schools concerned, albeit not recently, there will indeed be heated debate. The re-arrangement of school provision is always an emotive matter. But I would be surprised if in this case it shifts more than handfuls of votes.

  19. I’m surprised to see Plaid down, as I see no obvious reson for this. I also think the LDem vote is quite high, considering their collapse UK wide. I can’t see them getting 8 seats at all. Of course, with all the cuts the con vote should also be down by next May. I think there will be a swing from both the conservatives and LibDems to Plaid and Labour. Plaid Cymru could have 16-17 seats, with Labour close betwen an overall majority and being slightly short of one. The conservatives could easily drop down to 10ish and LDs 5 or lower. Based on the last GE, Trish Law will probably lose her seat.

  20. Glad to see my Consituency of Cardiff North will stay Conservative. Pembrokshire wont be lost, in the GE it was a massive Labour to Tory swing, Labour will get a larger share of the vote in its strong holds in the S.Wales Valleys I personaly can see the Tories actually gaining some, on the lines of the GE result. People haven’t forgoten about the dredful Labour govenrment yet, the places which turned Tory in the GE the Assembly seats of those places will either be Tory gains or Tory holds.

  21. Don’t forget Labour had it’s worst GE election result in Wales in it’s history. The Tories actually came first here in the Euros. I don’t believe these yougov and ICM polls. Labour will probably get 35% at best with the Tories around 25%. My prediction:)

  22. Frederic Stansfield/Richard.

    Will the furore over WM schools provision have an impact on the Assembly vote?

    The reason why it seems to be having a negative impact is the wide publicity which the Treganna/Lansdowne decision had. Plaid threatened briefly to bring down the coalition on the strength of Carwyn Jones decision thus they put themselves squarely on the side of what appeared to be an affluent and influential group of parents (including a fair smattering of Luvvies, Meeja big wigs like Ashok Ahir and infamous language protesters like Dr Simon Brooks of “Colonists out” fame)

    Meanwhile Rhag, the welsh Medium Schools pressure group funded by the Welsh language Board broadened the argument and controversially claimed that Carwyn had deliberately attacked the Minority Language fraternity.

    Neil McEvoy, the local councillor and Plaid leader on the council fell foul of just about everyone but when the smoke cleared it became evident that Carwyn Jones had made a reasonable decision.

    The anti-Labour, anti English Medium vitriol was already out there however and with the Whitchurch schools problem bubbling away and a growing awareness that the Plaid/Libdem council is throwing unjustifiable wads of money at middle class WM schools there is growing realisation that Plaid is not the “Socialist” party it tries to pretend to be.

    There will be growing rancour over the Assembly Powers referendum and I expect Plaid to lose votes in the melee.

  23. @J H Jones
    I live near the problems with Whitchurch schools, the Lib Dem/Plaid council in Cardiff which is trying to destroy perfectly good schools in the area to build new welsh medium ones is frankly disgusting. There is no need, my local Conservatives are campaigning to stop the proposals and you can see the fury amongst the people in the area with the amount of signs up along the roads in Cardiff North. These schools in Cardiff North do not need replacing and are coming out with perfectly good grades. The other big issue is Llanishen resevior, the Conservatives are campaigning to stop Cardiff Council destroying that. The new Tory MP Jonathan Evans of Cardiff North is head of protecting reseviors in the UK, he spoke to the commons about it the other day, video can be seen on youtube. Now the populer Labour MP is gone in Cardiff North I can see the Labour vote sinking here futher, it’s a very middle class seat and many voted for Julie despite their heart being with the Conservatives, I was worried that Cardiff North would go back to Labour next year in the assembly after the GE result but thinking of local issues, I doubt it.

  24. The results are very similar to last motnhs, obviously being monthly its harder to see patterns, but I wouldnt be suprised if the result was similar to this poll. However on the seat side. No way will the Lib Dems get 8, I think theyll get 6 like before, in many ways the electoral system in Wales really works against them. (See last assembly election and the one before that, on uniform swing both times they were predicted 8, and got 6)

    @ J H Jones
    I think IMO the Lib Dems and Rodney Berman have probably taken the main impact of any negativity surrounding Cardiff School closures, and I think we should remember Cardiff does have major surplus problems in many areas, that in these tough economic times surplus places need to be purged.
    According to Vaughan Rodericks Blog Julie Morgan may stand in Cardiff North next year. Very Intresting seat to watch indeed.

  25. First of all, it’s important to separate the actual numbers of votes in the Westminster election from those in the Cynulliad election. The two are different in terms of dynamic, and particularly in turnout. Thus, I wouldn’t look for crumbs of Tory comfort in Carmarthenshire W and Cardiff N, for example. The Tory majorities in both are pretty slender and won’t stand up to even a minor resurgence for Labour now that the “London Labour” factor is probably gone.

    It’s hard to see Labour losing any of the FPTP seats they won in 2007, given the election took place in the last days of a very unpopular Blair, which led to that “London Labour” slogan alluded to by an earlier poster.

    There are possible, even likely, Labour gains in Clwyd W and Carmarthenshire W (although the latter is an especially interesting and hard-fought three-way marginal with the Tories, Labour and Plaid all within 1% of each other).

    Don’t forget that Labour has won 31 of the 40 FPTP seats at one Assembly election or another. The really interesting seats, therefore, will be the ones which stand between Labour and 31 FPTP seats at the same time, so that means the real ones to watch are the other five which Labour won in 1999 or 2003 but not last time: Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent, Aberconwy, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Cardiff N.

    The other big question: how will the Liberals fare? Kirsty Williams is probably safe, but Lembit Öpik’s defeat to the Tories in Montgomeryshire may be repeated with the equally headline-weary Mick Bates, and who knows about Cardiff C (with Jenny Randerson standing down and the Liberals in a “toxic” – Tim Farron’s word – coalition in London)?

  26. Matt. Mc Evoy has adopted too high a profile over the Cardiff Schools Debacle. Plaid will take a hit as a result. Lib/dems will also suffer but because of the Westminster Coalition. The answer to the schools problem (Both EM and WM schools have increasing pupil numbers) is many more Dual stream schools instead of creating tiny WM schools.

    A Welsh Medium school (the smallest is just 20 pupils) attracts a suplement of over £21,000 per year. A small school (fewer than 150 pupils) gets £32,000 in addition to all normal funding. This means that a pupil going to the smallest WM school is worth £2,650 more than a pupil in a normal sized EM school.

    Ysgol Melyn Grufydd meanwhile gets £42,655 for being Welsh Medium and a small school’s allowance of £32,000 as a Small School despite having 393 pupils!

    People are beginning to notice these things.