YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). This means that both Angus Reid and YouGov are suggesting a boost to the Lib Dems from the first day of the campaign, though realistically these things could just as easily be normal sample variation.

It also drops YouGov’s Conservative score down well below the 40% point. Assuming that sticks it suggests their boost from the budget and the initial endorsement of their NI position by business leaders last week has subsided…or that the bank holiday weekend just produced some rather Toryish samples. We’ll never know.

In the other questions in YouGov’s poll, people were most likely to think that David Cameron had the most impressive campaign launch, but asked which party’s campaign was most impressive so far the Liberal Democrats came very narrowly top.


118 Responses to “YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/19”

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  1. I think it is interesting that a 1p rise in NI which is being complained about by 30 or so men yet very little debate over the rise in fuel duty, alcohol and tobacco. Do the 60 million or so people that have to pay for these rises not count. Anyway not trying to sound partisan just an observation.

  2. Anthony – thanks. Didn’t realise that, but it’s still an interesting finding as it might suggest it’s not such a sure fire winner for the people they needs to convert.

  3. @Ian Bailey,

    So, in a nutshell, old fashioned class war? Dislike people for being much richer than you?

    There are ways of making profits without employing people. A company could move their production overseas, sack all their UK staff, and thereby avoid paying employer NI contributions altogether. Wouldn’t stop them making profits – quite the opposite. If you want business to pay more tax, increase the taxes on their profits not on the total number of staff they employ.

  4. Paul(BrownOutin2010)

    You’ll find a Q&A session with Andy Morris from ARS on PB:

    Closest I can find is in response to this question:

    How much is the low Labour share explained by the non-past vote recall adjustment? Surely not the 5-6% we are seeing difference between AR and the others?

    by Jon C February 18th, 2010 at 2:15 pm

    29 – as every company uses a different false recall adjustment it is impossible to be precise but I would say 2-3%

    by Andy February 18th, 2010 at 2:47 pm

    Even on that basis, 2-3% is unexplained. But all the new internet pollsters have Labour lower. Might suggest panel make-up is a factor. They were all recently put-together.

    YouGov’s panel has been around a lot longer.

  5. @Pete B

    What evidence do you have for that?

    In any case, whilst this issue is partly about prejudice it is also about a potential Home Secretary suggesting it is OK to break a law he voted for. It also makes Camerons’ case that the Tory Party has changed much more difficult to believe.

    Of course there are people who will agree with him, some may even live in London and work for the Media (Mail and Express spring most to mind).

  6. May I be permitted to answer Martin Williams’s post? I cannot claim to be an independent voter – my support for Labour is well known – but I don’t quite understand why it can be thought that only the Liberal Democrats don’t sling mud, only the Liberal Democrats are addressing the issues as you suggest. All I hear is Nick Clegg saying both the other main parties are bad for various reasons; there are plenty of negatives and knocking copy as well as positive reasons to vote for him. He gets quite shouty too when he is making these comments. I’m not saying he’s any better or worse than Brown or Cameron in this regard; but I don’t think that the perception that only Clegg is addressing the issues is true at all.

  7. But isn’t the reason Labour themselves haven’t made more of the Grayling incident the fact that those behind the scenes have the suss to realise that the majority of the British people away from the middle class liberal-left would see Grayling’s comment as one in the eye for the type of interfering political correctness that people loathe about Labour?

    And therefore with the potential to become another own goal (hot onthe heels of the disatrous 80s posters) if pushed and not quitely forgotten…

  8. In my experience the internet is not a big thing among working class people in southern cities, this sounds like a fleeting statement and to a certain extent it is but I have found in my experience 25-40 year old males in the south of England do not spend time at home online answering surveys on politics.

    I’m sure this is similar in some Northern cities although places like Liverpool and Newcastle are very well represented in cyberworld.

    The internet forum as good as it is cannot possibly produce a reliable data set as the degree of skew will be too great (e.g. bias toward middle class intelligent desk based types) too likely to vote tory or others and must require a mammoth weighting exercise in order to produce a representative sample.

    WRT YG 37 33 19 if the earlier this week ICM CON +4 was an outlier it no longer is and therefore must be included in UNS calculations. If that is the line of best fit we are using then AR and OPINIUM must be discounted or shaved when calculating the rolling means.

    That is how quickly we could go from +10 to +5
    include MOE and a good debate performance from GB anythings possible (vice versa)

  9. apologies i meant YG 37 32 19

  10. @Barnaby Marder

    Agree with you. Nick Clegg has been engaging in some very negative campaigning for quite a while now.

  11. A call for calm again. The polls have narrowed slightly, and it’s obvious now that the 10% YouGov Tory lead of two days ago was an outlier, but there’s nothing here that it isn’t really just daily statistical fluctuation and, as Anthony rightly says, we have to await trends emerging over weeks, not days, before anything particularly definitive can be read into them.

    The indisputable trend borne out by the polls since the turn of the year, however, has been an average halving of the Tory lead over Labour. 10-14% in all polls, whatever their methodology, some 4 or 5 months ago, now 5-7% in the self same polls. This is interesting and, if I was a Tory strategist, deeply, deeply worrying. Remorseless trends are difficult, sometimes impossible to reverse, and if they don’t get some wind into their sails very soon, I sense an election that they really should be cake-walking, will slip away from them. As I’ve said many times before, political circumstances have rarely been more favourable for an opposition party at this time in the electoral cycle, and it’s an extraordinary thing that, with only four weeks before polling, that the governing party is still in the game at all. Why this might be so, is open to conjecture, but I’m getting a growing feeling that our friend Mr Cameron is not proving the electoral asset he was once assumed to be for his party.

    Was I the only one who felt Brown’s jibe at PM Questions today, in effect turning Cameron’s jibe about Blair a few years ago back on himself, was quietly effective? “You were the future once”, he said, and didn’t it feel strangely wounding for a man who no longer looks quite as fresh and new as he did some 3 or 4 years ago when he first arrived on the scene?

  12. I do think it’s dangerous to refer to the YouGov 10% as an outlier. It was backed up by other polls. I think perhaps the real Tory lead was about 8 & a half percent, now maybe it is perhaps a point lower.

  13. Someone suggested that it is ‘class war’ or ‘dislike of people being richer than you’ when referring to another contributors point that Chief Exec’s of big business are in effect being selfish by saying they will sack people if the businesses have to pay more Nat Ins.

    As owner of a business established in 1888 and probably considered weathly by some, I do not consider it ‘class war’ or a dislike of richer people that a contributor suggests that it is wrong for business leaders to threaten to cut staff because of higher N.I contributions. The country is in a mess, created by the private sector, the banks. Business needs to pay it’s fair share, unfortunately so must we all in order to secure recovery. If there is no recovery, there will be no jobs to tax and we will be in a spiral of bust similar to the 1980’s and 90’s.

    I recall the head of Tesco and other so called business leaders saying in 1997 ‘ if a minimum wage is introduced it will cost jobs’, what they really mean is ‘i dont want to contribute any more to the economy and if you make me, I’ll cut workers jobs to claw it back’.

    It’s a disgraceful attitude to take and these are not job creaters but rather wealth hoarders.

    This tiresome argument from what apear to be right wing thinkers that any disagreement with business leaders is ‘class war’ or ‘jealousy’ is very fickle. Remember it is these same business leaders who have led the world to the verge of bankruptcy, so please do think that whatever they say must be right because their way of thinking has been proved wrong on many occasions.

  14. Whilst i stil believe that Cameron will win, i agree with Nick Hadley.
    He has been Conservative leader since December 2005 (a full 18 months longer than Brown has been at Labour’s helm) and whilst i still see him as the most energetic campaigner, it does seem like voters feel his message is becoming stale.
    Luckily for him nowhere near as stale as Brown’s dulcet ramblings.

    I really don’t see what Brown can take out of the live TV debates.
    His performance today at PMQ’s was embarrassing.
    When pressed by Nick Clegg on Parliamentary reform, he decided to attack the Tories over Ashcroft.
    It smacked of desperation, if he behaves like that in the debates he definately will be finished.
    As the polls show the fat lady might not be singing, but i somehow get the feeling she’s getting ready to clear her throat.

  15. Have there been any recent polls for Welsh marginals since the beginning of March ?

  16. Sara, there have been very few, way before march! None regarding Welsh marginal at all,
    Irritating isn’t it and frustrating as well! apparently we are not worthy!

  17. Richard (Tatton)

    “I recall the head of Tesco and other so called business leaders saying in 1997 ‘ if a minimum wage is introduced it will cost jobs’, what they really mean is ‘i dont want to contribute any more to the economy and if you make me, I’ll cut workers jobs to claw it back’.

    It’s a disgraceful attitude to take and these are not job creaters but rather wealth hoarders.”

    I wouldn’t detract from single word you say, but its actually worse than that.

    These people are fundamentalist believers in an oversimplified free-market creed. They uncritically accept that there is a direct and simple relationship between raised national insurance costs and loss of jobs from the economy as a whole, because that is what their faith tells them must be true. Several posters here have pointed out different ways in which it is much more complex than that.

    Worse than that, they assume that those whom they are addressing also accept the tenets of the faith and will at once accept their conclusions once it is pointed out by leading elders of the “church” like themselves, and on their authority.

    So I ask you: would you buy shares in companies run by these numpties?

    Growth is generated by new business startups, but mostly by those who grow small businesses into larger ones by constant improvement in the way they do things. Most of the people who do that are too busy with, involved in and and indeed enthused by the progress they are making to bother lecturing us about government policy.

  18. Why are we beating up on the pollsters?? It seems to me that they can’t (or shouldn’t!) manufacture certainty out of a very uncertain electoral situation at present.

    How many of us – short of being hung over hot coals – can say for sure who we are going to plump for on the day? None of the alternatives seem particularly enticing to me personally, even though I had no difficulty with my political allegiance previously!

    penn48

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