Tonight’s polls

I am expecting three new polls tonight. YouGov in the Sun (normally at around 10pm, though sometimes Sky News seem to have the figures earlier), ICM in the Guardian (normally a bit earlier – I’ve heard it could be very soon), and there is apparently at least one other, though I haven’t had it confirmed who, where or if it actually exists.

64 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

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  1. That is the highest opinium has had labour

  2. Oh come now Roland, don’t be churlish. You know full well that when the YouGov-biased-to-Labour debate was raging “moderate” reasonable people on this very site said ICM were the Gold Standard over and over.
    Now, one 4 point gap means little, i agree, but let’s not pretend ICM aren’t one of the most eagerly awaited, well respected polling companies.

  3. Sue
    I re-checked as I wanted to be certain. According to Sky, it was at the reception in No10 following the Remembrance service and this is how Mr BeHarry has thanked him for his invitation and special treatment and warm letter of thanks that he recieved from GB (5 months later). Please read it everyone and then never accept at face value anything you read in newspapers ever again (as I do not)

    As I say, an ordinary man used. Yes it is a disgrace so what’s new?

  4. I hate to say it Eoin, but Opinium had Labour on 30 with just a 7 point gap on 22nd March

  5. Wow!!! Howard. My husband said last night that “someone needs to take on the media. They are way out of hand and have more power than the politicians and the people combined”
    Wise words.
    You have truly scared me.

  6. The Guardian says Re ICM

    **Labour and Tory support is now equally solid. Overall, 71% of Labour supporters say they will definitely back Labour while 71% of Tories also say they will stick with their first choice party.**

  7. @Sue,

    Thanks for that! ;)

  8. @Roland


    Lets say 7%….

  9. The reception was a year earlier than that! (2008).

    Oh my giddy aunt. What will they cough up next. As we are on polls, perhaps someone can remind us about who are the most despised members of society. I thought it was the press but if you could remind us many thanks.

  10. “You know full well that when the YouGov-biased-to-Labour debate was raging “moderate” reasonable people on this very site said ICM were the Gold Standard over and over.”

    I’d just try to ignore such comments, Sue. The important thing to remember is that it’s how public opinion is going (represented by such polls), and not what people’s various (incorrect) interpretations are on here, that count.

  11. Beside, if people misinterpret the polls or refuse to accept them, they will probably only be in for a shock come election night anyway!

  12. AW I guess you are mates with Bob Worcester for whom I have great respect despite thinking the poor fellow was no longer with us. Could you ask him if he will kindly comment on my post please? Come to that I should like to hear your view too.

    I can imagine his answer but it would be nice to read to see if he has an angle on how polls could start to predict outcomes instead of just percentages. The marginals polls I found unsatisfying as they were still too spread out. I would have preferred a pollster to take a few marginals and expose any local variances. Another angle is how exceptionally marginals have performed in the past. In other words what was the greatest variation from UNS and with what quantities.

  13. Re-posting from previous thread

    Pink News have published a poll – 1200 respondents following Grayling ‘gaffe’.

    Con: 20% (-5)
    Lab: 28% (nc)
    LD: 29% (+5)

    (change from 1 month ago)

    Official estimate of gay/lesbian population c. 6%
    Advertising co. estimate “almost” 3m people

    Polling started before Grayling comments but ended after. DC performance on C4/Gay News interview thought to be an added factor.

  14. Yougov Con:40/Lab 31/ Lib 18

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