Wednesday night polls

There are three new polls tonight. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 19%(nc). Labour are up one point, but there is no significant change. Last week the Conservatives had a lead over Labour of about 4 points with YouGov, this week it seems to be consolidating around 6% or 7%.

Secondly we have a new poll from Angus Reid. They have topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 28%, LDEM 22%. I have not put changes since their last poll since Angus Reid seem to have made a significant change to their weighting, essentially using micro-geographical weighting. Most pollsters weight their sample by region – Angus Reid’s new weighting uses about 140 geographical units based on similar Parliamentary constituencies. Clearly this poll shows a smaller Conservative lead than their previous poll, but at present we can’t tell if that is due to a change in sentiment, or the change in weighting.

Finally there is a new Harris poll for the Metro. This has topline figures of CON 37%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 19%(+2) – implying a significant drop in their strangely high figure for others. The poll was conducted between the 23rd and 29th – so most, but not all, of it was conducted after the Budget.

314 Responses to “Wednesday night polls”

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  1. Repubs = Repugs – excellent!

  2. I simply do not understand your moderation policy. As far as partisanship goes, I’m not even close to being a major offender and my contributions are very few in number compared to the likes of Eoin, Bill Roy and others. Yet once again I’m in premoderation while others are merrily partisaning away.

    Pointless exercise and a waste of everyone’s time.

  3. Bill Roy – “…Brown uses statistics that cannot be compared, Blair appears on the scene, the NI increase is taxation on jobs, and now Mandelson basically calls the best known business bosses in the UK all but idiots. ”

    Firstly, hi.

    Secondly, some possible replies.

    GB’s innaccurate stats may be simply that he forgets or has been given incorrect data. If it’s the latter I imagine he’ll be very angry with his colleagues at no. 10.

    TB entering the fray…still to be seen how this one works out. The upside of it is that TB has endorsed GB who as we all remember squeezed him out of office. Another possible convoluted idea is that people recall TB’s ‘errors’ and see GB in a different light.

    NI increase – perhaps some will see this differently.

  4. James,

    I must admit that I’m a bit mystified – just from your posts on this thread today it is fairly obvious where your sympathies lie, but in my view you haven’t said anything worthy of censure going by Anthony’s rules apart from one very mild comment about the Labour campaign being a bit ragged. There are certainly far worse offenders!

  5. I’ve just done the “which party’s policies most closely match your views” survey on Votematch dot org which I found enlightening. My preferred party came top with a 64% match but the one of the others was at 63% which I found surprising. The third of the 3 main parties came in at 49%.

    Why not have a go. You too may be surprised.

  6. Couldn’t find it Colin – could you be more specific as to where the survey is?

  7. James & Mitz – I predict it to get much better after May 6th, when AW peacetime rules will apply again. i just suspect the moderation queue gets so bunged up that those who should be there get through sometimes.

  8. Colin Green – just done it. My match was 73% Labour.

    The orher two Greens and LDs.

    I’m relieved.

  9. try votematch dot org dot uk instead. Its in the top right corner of the homepage.

  10. MITZ – I simply used the figures available to produce a non-partisan report. Personally I would agree that it is likely that the Conservative support is likely more skewed to England and Wales than even this solution would infer.

    MIKE N – I stand by my comments. I do though acknowledge that the ‘figures’ may have been ‘given’ to GB, but then to make a podcast without having them checked out shows considerable lack of judgement in itself.

    Is it just YG tonight or does anyone know of any other polls declaring?

  11. Done it Colin, and like you the parties I selected came out in the order I would have expected, but probably a little closer together. Interesting exercise.

  12. I must point outhtat in the last you gov poll for Wales the Tories trailed by 8%.

    Sean amde a goos point about England’s swing which will take time to consider but with plaid/Libs/Con and Lab all with fair portions of the electorate in Wales, i am less inclined to believe there will be a 11% swing towards Conservative in that country.

    Consequently if the Tories want a gain of 130 seats- they require proably a 12% swing in England…

  13. Mine came out as LibDem (who need a 10% swing from labour where I live) presumably because of the £10k tax threshold question. Don’t think I’ll be changing my vote on that basis though

  14. Apoligies for Typo “Sean made a good point……………..”

  15. Bill Roy – “…but then to make a podcast without having them checked out shows considerable lack of judgement in itself”.

    I don’t know the particular circumstances, so cannot comment.

    I would be very surprised (shocked!) however if any political party ever set out to lose an election. IMHO, Lab would prefer to win the election and then worry about what happens later.

  16. @JACK JONES,
    “I assume this is because they give a message which does not correspond with your personal politics?”

    No Jack, it’s because they all show too much fluctuation, and a high percentage for others, which realistically won’t be reproduced on polling day, if only because other parties won’t field enough candidates.

    All the pollsters I mentioned (although I meant Opinium, not Populous BTW) have given results at some point over the past few weeks that would have agreed with my personal politics, regardless of my leanings.

    In other words, its was a none partizan observation about polling.

  17. Just reading about you views on the business leaders and the NI rise/cut

    Come on boys and girls, put your sabres down for a sec.
    “Shock headline : Business doesn’t want to pay more tax”
    “Shock – 7 of the “Business Leaders” are Tory donors”

    I suppose there’ll be 40 in the Times tomorrow who support Darling.


  18. @Sue,

    I agree,

    you will note I have not touched that story with a barge poll… nor did i touch the immigration one yesterday

    there’ll be one f these every day… god love the poor electorate

  19. @SUE MARSH
    I disagree to this extent, they will be 50 and in the Guardian.
    They will be persons from academia who would recognise a profit centre if it rubbed their belly with a live swordfish.

  20. @SUE MARSH
    I should say would NOT recognise a profit centre……………………

  21. Roand – if this country were run as a business, do you think it would be a better place to live, or a much much worse one?

    That’s the question being asked of the voters this time round at the GE, is it?

    The electorate might or might not know what is meant by “less for more” and “big society” and “personal responsibility” and “we’re all in this together”

    In the business world it means everybody working harder for less reward.

    To please the shareholders.

    (Only with UK Ltd the shareholders ar ethe big landowners and multi-multi-millionaires whose wealth is offshore)

  22. EOIN – we could have a little game predicting each day’s “froth”. Tomorrow I think it’ll turn out GB “lied” about how much toilet roll he actually uses and 30 toilet roll manufacturers will “wipe the floor” with him.

    Easter Sunday “Shock, horror, DC HATES CHOCOLATE”

  23. “..hates chocolate but will allow Sam to give little Tony some if he grows into a nice little boy…”

  24. @JOHN T T

    I don’t think anyone is advocating running the country like a business. But how much waste do you tolarate in govt. ?

    For Example, my sister in law got a job recently in the local authority payments department. After 3 days in the job a group of co -workers took her aside and tolde her that she had to reduce her work rate. In one day she had performed the same amount of transactions as 3 people were currently doing in a week.

    Now the question is do you tolerate this ? that department of 24 people could be just as effeicent with 12. So should it ?

    If it was your money ( which it is in this case ) would you pay to have people doing nothing ?

  25. Bill Roy

    I am afraid you mathematics doesn’t make sense. You can’t divide voting intention percentage by population percentage to give a new voting percentage.

  26. @ SIMON K

    And do you honestly think your little anecdote doesn’t equally apply to the private sector? A finance friend of mine was bullied into resigning from a private sector job for exactly the same reason.

  27. SimonK,

    I’m intrigued – what did your sister-in-law do in reaction?

  28. Rod
    I don’t think the fluctuations have been so marked although ‘Others’ has thrown up some larger variances then our favourite MOE due to snaffling from all three larger parties occasionally in one go.

    I agree with you that there is no evidence that the smaller parties will not lose out due to no candidate or perception that he is a no hoper in that constituency. This is of course also the case for the third party (not talking nationalists here) where third party supporters are aware that this is the case.

  29. @Sue,

    people have a choice, they could view things in the minutae or over the mdium to long term….

    The public are wakening up the fact that the election is a choice and not a referendum… that is Wales, Scotland and the North East is rallying around Labour….

  30. Sue

    I’ll accept that and I agree that there will be these kind of stories coming through a lot, but to give some balance to the Tories on here, you must remember NOT to jump on them IF and when they appear and appear to be good for us Labour people…?

    We can’t have it both ways…. ;-)

  31. @MITZ

    She moved jobs….


    no I ma not saying it doesn’t go on in the private sector, I am saying is (IMHO) waste should not be tolerated it should be dealt with. As for the bullying that is equally as bad and a failure of management.

    Bullying must not be tolerated wherever it is found, and the public and private sector are equally as bad. I am a senior manager in my organisation and we deal with bullying severly. That said there have been a number of false bullying claims, these are usually done by the biggest bullies.

  32. Too right Amber. Years ago, I got a summer job while at Uni in the kitchen of a certain well known pizza chain. My job (along with a colleague) was to mix the dough and cut it into suitable portions ready to be made into pizza bases. One day, through working more quickly and efficiently than expected, we ran out of ingredients, so for the rest of that day and throughout the next we cleaned that kitchen so that it was utterly spotless. There was not a single surface, including the floor, that you would have minded eating off without a plate. On the third day, due to a cock up, there was still no flour, so we were sent home, a day’s pay worse off. Essentially, we were penalised for working too efficiently.

    Completely unrelated point – that branch was later closed down and the chain heavily fined because a high proportion of the staff were working in th UK illegally.

  33. Some good news for Labour. New poll from TNS/BRMB:

    C – 38% (-1%)
    Lab – 33% (+2%)
    LD – 19% (NC)
    Oths – 10% (-1%)

  34. I have already posted my tiredness at every little thing being seen as a game changing event that will pummel Brown/cripple Cameron. I have blasted people over the months for so doing. I repeat that I recognise the public dont follow this stuff the way we do, but is this NI thing froth? Well, to me Browns mispeak on immigration is worse, his “mistaken” evidence to Chilcot is worse, but that is just silly old me.
    NI is a tax, it affects jobs, could this mean me? These bosses are saying Labours wrong, perhaps they are. That might well be the reaction. Tune in to this channel and follow the polls.

  35. Votematch
    You need to read the individual ‘match’ report at the end. I am apparently nearer to UKIP (within one point!) than Labour but looking at the report, they misunderstood me greatly! If someone says to you ‘should such and such be reduced by 10%’ and you say ‘no’ that could mean that …….. I don’t have to go on do I? Also, one could agree with something very half-heartedly, but there was no room for nuance apparently.

  36. Amber

    The trouble is Amber, we are all paying for the public sector, like it or not, therein lies the difference….and a huge one it is too…

  37. Polly Ticks – You’re right. I suppose human nature means I’m happier to delight at a story bad for the Tories. i TRY not to, but your point was no doubt a valid one.
    For the balance you rightly talk about, shall I post the link to what Ken Clarke thinks of the NI cut?

    No better not I spose…… ;)

  38. Sue – yes please post the link.

  39. @Roland,

    The tax itself is substantive and very relevant. It is precisely what campaigns should be about and I applaud it.

    But the Darling, Mandy she said he said stuff- well that is waffle… I am also inclinded to say that whatever Stuart Rose thinks of it is also waffle. Of course employers are not going to back tax rises….

    the merits of the actual policy vis a vis cuts stimulating growth should be the focus…

    if Darling’s vat cut a while back was to stimulate growth then I do not see why an NI cut cant do the same…

    My persoanl views on tax cuts should not be relevant to the discussion, which is why I have not aired them,

  40. Is the NI saga not really a tax cut, just NOT a tax increase….? Anyone ?

  41. Polly,

    thats the type of point that ruins the debate…

    the merits of the policy rather than the precise definition are whats important

  42. Polly Ticks – despiet how it has been portrayed in parts of the media, it is both (it seems)!

    The Cons have said they will accept the 1% increase annaounced by AD – so there is no reversal of it.

    Hoever, the Cons say they will alter the structure of the thresholds and limit thereby giving a reduction in the NICs payable.

    One of the implications uncoupling the existing structure is that the income tax higher rate threshold is no linger linked in law to the upper earnings limit for NICs. Thus, at some later date, a Con gov could uplift the higher rate threshold and generate tax reductions for those who pay tax at the current higher rate of 40%.

    The existing structure prevents this occurring.


    The trouble is Amber, we are all paying for the public sector, like it or not, therein lies the difference….and a huge one it is too…
    Yes – but the debate is whether the private sector is more efficient than the public sector – not would it be nice to live in a waste free society.

    Also – as Mitz says – efficiency often is not rewarded in either sector for those at the bottom of the employee ‘food chain’.

    And isn’t “profit” a waste of tax payers’ money?

  44. Has anybody asked Mr M&S how many NEW jobs he guarantees to create if GO reverses the NIC hike?

    Can I have Mandy’s job ;-)

  45. Profit a waste of tax payers money ? isn’t that where most of the tax revanue comes from which pays for the public sector ?

    Thats borderline commie….

  46. Mike N – That would make me a screaming hypocrite. Another of my pet hates is when a Con posts a link from the Mail or Telegraph to prove their point!!

    The quotes I was referring to were in the Mirror!

    Can’t find it on their website, so you’ll just have to buy a copy of today’s paper.

    It’ll be worth the 40p ;)

  47. Where’s Salty when you need him? Someone else will have to point out that this new TNS/BRMB poll is within the MOE and so neither good nor bad for anyone…

  48. Polly T
    The NI ‘debate’ took place last December (PBR) but at least one on this list thought it was new. Then GO said he would not like to see it occur in 2011 but could not promise to turn it around ‘within a parliament’. That is still the case as Mike N points out. The change of threshold that he now promises could be changed yet again if he takes power and in any case, in order not to be accused of U turn, he could always change another part of the tax arrangements to claw back anything he liked and I should be amazed if he did not, given the policy on reducing the debt..
    I have scoured the media reports from December and no significant remarks were made other than from a few academic economist types and their main body of opinion was that it was not half enough to deal with the deficit.
    It’s just how they report it now – see TV fuel increase vox pop reports and that is now one third of that originally proposed and could be altered again in the ’50th day budget’ or any other budget you could dream up.

    It will go on like this for another 35 days -groan!

  49. SimonK

    WRT finance or payment sections -I have worked for several – both private & public sector. The difficulty I always found was the work didn’t come in as a steady flow. There would be very busy periods and very quiet ones.
    Deadlines would have to be met, so after a say 2 weeks of frenzy there would be one week of steady (ish) work and a few days of calm.

    I wouldn’t describe the quiet days as ”wastage” – and we did diversify / changed job descriptions when required. We have to be very careful to know the circumstances before making claims of waste.

    The only quiet job I ever had was working in a shop on Saturdays whilst still at school -bored me to tears because they put me in the hardware dept. :-)

  50. Amber/Polly – There was a debate on another thread a few days ago. It seemed that the outcome was that 20-22% of workers are employed by the public sector yet they are responsible for 52% of GDP.
    I queried it at the time, but if it was indeed true, then surely that means we have the most productive public sector in the world??????

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