There are three new polls tonight, and they all show a post-budget swing towards the Conservatives.

YouGov/Sun: CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1)
ComRes/Independent: CON 37%(nc), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1)
Opinium/Express: CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 18%(+3)

YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has a 7 point lead, up from 5 in their Sunday Times poll and equalling the highest they’ve had the Conservatives this month. ComRes show the Conservatives unchanged, but Labour dropping two since the end of last month. Opinium have a ten point Conservative lead.

The changes themself are not massive, but every poll since the budget has shown a trend back towards the Conservatives. There seems little doubt that the budget has shifted things back towards the Tories a bit. The question now is whether it lasts, or whether it is just a brief downwards blip for Labour that will pass as new events (like the Conservative tax announcement or whatever coverage tonight’s Chancellor’s debate gets) take over the political news agenda.

UPDATE: Lib Dem figure from Opinium corrected (you’ll have to wait till tonight for tonight for it to get corrected in the sidebar)

508 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Opinium show Tory lead growing”

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  1. @John TT

    Adh Mor A chara,

  2. It does seem that Bob Crowe WANTS to cause problems that’s for sure. That will only work in the Tories favour you would believe.
    Does Crowe have a vendetta against Brown or is it just against Labour..?

  3. @polly,

    You hit the nail on the head. he has been maneouvreing this for half a decade……

    A detrimental impact on Labour’s campaign will not deter him….

  4. “To avoid any confusion- I am an Irishman ”

    I think we all realise that Eoin.

    And whilst I for one have no desire top delve more into the troubled waters of what & whom, people in your island believe themselves to be-I feel that john tt was inviting you to broaden you horizon a little.

    He does it to us all from time to time ;-)

  5. @Colin,

    I have sure aint I talking to the likes of you :)

  6. my prediction for tonight is
    Con – 37
    Lab 32
    Lib – 20

  7. @ POLLY
    “It does seem that Bob Crowe WANTS to cause problems that’s for sure”

    Yes -it does Polly.

    I have been posting for a while that the more vocal unions who are taking & planning action now, are but a sign of things to come.

    Labour are afloat financially because of a few unions in particular.

    He who pays the piper , eventually calls the tune.

    If Cons win they will face this head on.

    If Labour win it will produce huge stresses in their coterie of MPs.

    I don’t fully understand, though why it is starting now.

  8. “I have sure aint I talking to the likes of you ”

    ….translation please Eoin ;-)

  9. Polly I think it’s Crow

    Train drivers are on £30,000 -40,000 nowadays.

    They think Crow is great.

  10. Colin
    RMT nothing to do with labour party nowadays but that would of course not stop Press saying otherwise

  11. I was just pointing out that the Tory message on National Insurance does not make any sense within their wider campaign themes, and that Osborne lost the Channcel 4 debate and that it may affect the up coming polls, and probably will. There is nothing partisan about that, I have also critised Labour adn the Lib Dem in previous coments.

    Then again, it seems on here that any criticism of Tory is partisan, but it is fine to criticise Labour and the Lib Dems. Tad bit hypocritical.

  12. “RMT nothing to do with labour party nowadays ”

    No-of course Howard.

    But they seem to be willing to play their part in this current “show of strength”.

  13. Eoin – and may your lum always reek my friend ! (that stolen from my Scots wife!)

    Polly ticks – the attitude yo try to describe is the same as the bizarre attitude of the other extreme (ie, get out of Europe, ablolish income tax, ban immigration etc)

    The problem with trying to ascribe extreme attitudes to the other side is that the voters believe the ascribers as little as they believe the politicians. So Spin is Spin. Whatever side the coin you are on. And it stinks. The central issues are dealable.

    An out-going Govt may well suffer because of a weakening mandate (ie time-elapsure), but who on earth believes that an in-coming Govt will be in a position to improve industrial relations in the same way that one could improve foreign policy? No chance. A Labour spring of dicontent will if you are right lead into a Summer Autumn and Winter of complete catastrophe

    THe best thing all potential winners can do electorally is to encourage talks, not brinkmanship. So why does Cameron want to encourage a “all management to the pumps” approach to fight off the pesky workers?

    Everything DC should be saying (promoting Individualism and the US society (where US = ME + NEIGHBOURS + TIME + SKILLS + HELP FROM GOVT IF NECESSARY) is being drowned by something that doesn’t feel right to too many voters.

    Colin – Respect! Thanks and apologies for any previous rancour.

  14. Geraint
    Ain’t it all a blooming shame

  15. @Eoin: ‘The British population, however, I feel would reject PR for a GE’

    It all depends on the circumstances. There would be no referendum on PR without at least two-party agreement. Currently neither Con nor Lab supports either PR or a referendum on PR, so it would take some remarkable circumstances for that to change, eg LD 31, Con 28, Lab 25, leading to Lab 267 seats, Con 220 seats, LD 132 seats (under UNS). Such circumstances – and their implications – would then strongly influence the electorate’s decision on PR.

    @ Howard, Polly – I think that only an extremely unlikely GE outcome like the above would ‘compel the referendum’ (on PR, not simply AV). Given the non-extraordinary sort of no overall majority that current poll figures would produce, neither Con nor Lab would have to give an inch on a PR referendum, and therefore neither would.

  16. Hello everyone: :o

    My prediction for tonights YouGov —-wait for it ——-

    Con 40

    Lab 29

    LD 20

    There now hows that for wishful thinking :o

  17. The RMT and Bob Crow are not affliated with the Labour Party, and haven’t for a very long time.
    Bob Crow is a Communist member I think, and he stood at the EU election for the No 2 EU; Yes to Democracy party.

    Bob Crow doesn’t care who wins the election, he hates Labour and the Tories equally.


    Yes it is, especially when people seem to over-react at the slightly provocation…..oh!

  18. Colin
    RMT doesn’t give a d*mn. This has been going on for months and they will try for their members a lot of whom are going to lose their jobs with efficiency savings, Er, proper savings not political ones!

    I have seen no evidence of poll movements due to labour disputes for yonks.

  19. On a personal level the National Health Care seems wrong to me.

    a) It’s just England
    b) The NHS was fair enough as we can all get sick
    c) My parents – late 80s, my wife’s parents – mid 80s – my wife’s sister’s husbands parents -mid 80s – all are enjoying living in their own home bar slower and sleepier. My mid 80s neighbour lived in her home till the week before she died… And so on. Why the assumption that we all need care? Nanny state again… If this is a problem then that’s what tax is for; or not getting involved with illegal and immoral wars… Why do we need Trident? Why two aircraft carriers? Politicians may well think we are stupid but new needs can be paid for by cuting in other areas. This New Labour idea is dumb

  20. @ johntt

    “Respect! Thanks and apologies for any previous rancour.”

    A pleasure-no probs.

    “Individualism and the US society (where US = ME + NEIGHBOURS + TIME + SKILLS + HELP FROM GOVT IF NECESSARY) is being drowned by something that doesn’t feel right to too many voters.”

    This is beautifully expressed.
    The minimalist symbols in your brackets are what I believe.
    It is what Cameron believes-I honestly think so.

    What is he saying that is “drowning it out” ?

  21. So when all is said and done can anyone see Labour being re-elected with a majority…? Or even being the biggest party ?
    Just interested….opinions?

  22. @Polly Ticks

    No Polly not at all

    [snipped – AW. Mark, I only just took you off pre-moderation. More like that and you’ll be back on it]

  23. Wolf MacNeil – The AV referendum will be in the Labour manifesto (I think). It’s not a great leap from an AV referndum to a referendum that offers three choice (AV, PR + one other – with a NO option to preserve the status quo), and such a leap would presumably be required by a LibDem party that held the balance of power in a hung parliament irrespective of its number of seats

    Pro-EU parties would prefer something that gets the UK closer to the EU to the status quo.

    Having said that, I can’t see Brown pushing the idea in the campaign as I believe he thinks he’ll go on and on….

  24. How high will vince take the libs tonight?

    @Colin- I cant possilby think anyone who could broaden my horizons more………………….. ;)

  25. @ Polly – ‘can anyone see Labour being re-elected with a majority…? Or even being the biggest party?’

    Chance of a majority now very slim, but the electoral system still gives them quite a chance of being the largest parliamentary party.

    I wouldn’t like to put a figure on it at this stage, because it all depends on factors outside Labour’s control – the debates, the strikes, the Tory, Lib Dem. Plaid and SNP campaigns, etc, etc

  26. Jack
    Appreciate your views on issues but what is the electoral significance or did you forget that one?i

  27. Polly
    I agree with Wolf but there seems to be a resilence around what we have now does there not. The mystery is how we got here from Con 42 Lab 25 in a week or two it seemed.

  28. It is widely accepted that PR increases the number of parties represented in parliament.

    To form governments, centre parties have to deal with extremists…

    Romano Prodi had to deal with the communist party….

    with these facts in the public domain, the population would reject PR.

  29. I hope it comes down to the argument Polly Ticks. I hope that the electorate listen to what the parties are proposing and decide what it will mean every day of the next 4-5 years. There is a difference between hearing the argument and listening to it.
    The party that convinces the electorate that they have the best proposals will win and I genuinely believe that this time more than any other it could be any of the three.

    I therefore predict a massive LibDem bounce tonight or certainly in the next few days and we really WILL have something to chat about.

    Con 36
    Lab 32
    Lib Dem 25

  30. @polly

    i can quite easily labour getting a majority

    afterall, they just need a couple of more %

  31. @ John TT

    I’d love to think you were right, but cannot believe that a Brown-led Labour Party would feel the need to offer to add the PR option to the AV referendum, in the ‘regular NOM’ circumstances of, say, 290, 280, 50.

    Given utter Tory opposition to any voting reform, Clegg would have Hobson’s choice.

  32. Colin – DC’s remarks on the BA strike were not consistent with what you want him to say about our society.

    Backing the strike-breakers to the extent that he was suggesting (completely ignoring the ballot of members, and the central issues to the dispute). There appeared to be no balance, no appreciation whatsoever of what drove cabin crew Unite members to vote for what they voted for.

    Whatever the merits of the case (and strikes have in the past received poular support – cf Fire-Fighters) – and I agree the Mgmt has its non-negotiables and reasonable case – a leader who promotes the idea of Co-Ooperative work should exude an attitude at all times that is consistent with that.

    As Cicero and others since have said, being known as a man of courage depends on that man doing courageous deeds. Not opportunistic ones (at least not before the Courage label is secure)

    OT, but just trying to define part of what’s stopping DC from sealing the deal.

    Eoin – such a wonderfrul compliment, Colin and I really don’t deserve such fulsome praise as “@Colin- I cant possilby think anyone who could broaden my horizons more………………….. “

  33. Eoin
    On PR governemnets having to deal with extremists
    That really is factual nonsense and I thought you knew better.

  34. Howard,

    Are you forgetting Bruning, Hindeburg’s blunder?

    Itlay have had more than 48 governments since the war……

  35. will be interesting to see the You gov poll this evening. Perhaps a small movement back towards the Government.

    My G E prediction is still for a hung Parliament with Tories and Labour quite close to each other in terms of seats.
    Can’t see Labour getting a majority and also can’t see the Tories picking up 120 seats either, but certainly interesting times ahead.

  36. EOIN – But Berlusconi’s been there for most of it. He’s just got in again, you’ve gotta love ’em

  37. Eoin,
    No so what? Your statement was

    ‘To form governments, centre parties have to deal with extremists’

    Oh no they don’t!

  38. It’s just occurred to me how strange it is that the Sun of all papers has commissioned these YouGov daily polls. I can’t think of a readership less likely to care about them. Can you see the average Sun reader excitedly flicking past page three to see what the latest poll results are? Every day?
    Not like us poll geeks here anxiously awaiting the results. Isn’t it nice of that nice Mr Murdoch to commission these daily polls for us? Must cost him a fortune.
    I wouldn’t imagine anyone here is a regular Sun reader. Am I wrong?

  39. In time they do Howard,

    For what it is worth I favour STV but my personal taste is irrel.


  41. Here I am !!!!!!!!

  42. Labour 34
    Tory 36
    Libs 21

  43. I predict a 5 point lead for the Tories in tonight’s YouGov poll. I think there was undoubtedly a movement in the Tory’s direction, but not as much as yesterday’s poll was suggesting.

  44. 38/31/19 NEW THREAD

  45. Sue,
    is there a name for people who are addicted to opinion polls and get very tetchy if they have not had one for 24 hours?

  46. Polly you were waiting for that -naughty step for you!

  47. @Eoin ‘To form governments (under PR), centre parties have to deal with extremists…’

    So, please name all the extremist parties that German or Swedish or Finnish or Irish governments etc, etc, have had to do deals with in the last 60 years, compared with Mr Mitterand’s deal with the Communists under a non-PR system (2 round FPTP) in the 1980s.

  48. @EOIN
    “For what it is worth I favour STV but my personal taste is irrel.”
    For a moment I thought irrel was some kind of obscure voting method

  49. I don’t think there is one, uniform, eventual outcome for PR systems across all the countries that have adopted them. In some countries it encourages moderation, in others it seems to allow extremists to get a foothold. A lot depends on the political culture of the country concerned I think, which comes from more than just the voting system.

  50. Sweden aside that is fairly straightforward

    google Clan na Phoblachta – on eof its founding memebrs blew up Nelson’s pillar in dublin in the 1950s

    I will return with greek, italian, german examples in time but tonites poll is more pressing :)

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