New Harris/Metro poll

There is a new Harris poll in this morning’s Metro. The topline figures are CON 35%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 17%(-1). Others are up to 20%. Changes are from Harris’s previous poll and are well within the margin of error.

The Metro, for some unknown reason, have chosen to draw comparisons from the poll before that – perhaps because it makes it look more dramatic. They claim this poll shows support for the main parties being hit by the fuss over the fake lobbyist sting, which is rather tenuous given that the fieldwork was conducted between last Wednesday and this Monday (so two thirds was before the story broke) and that it doesn’t actually show any notable movement from the previous poll.

Anyway, I have also had a look at the tables for the poll, so have some more details of Harris’ method. Unlike most other UK pollsters, they do start out by asking people whether they are registered to vote and excluding the 4% who say no and 3% who are not sure. They also use a squeeze question on people who say they are undecided, and while they ask likelihood to vote using a verbal scale, I don’t think they actually filter or weight by it.

On weighting, Harris use age, gender, education, region and internet usage (obviously all users are online, but some people are more online than others – this is their way of controlling differences between “fast responders” and “slow responders”). Education is unusual, as is the absence of social class as a weighting variable. Finally Harris weight by their own “propensity scoring” – a figure they have calculated themselves to deal with the differences between people who join online panels and take surveys, and the majority of people who do not. It is based on attitudinal, behavoural and demographic characteristics and calculated by comparing the online sample to a representative face-to-face sample, and weighting as appropriate.

270 Responses to “New Harris/Metro poll”

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  1. Oh that pretty 34 is back

  2. With Labour 10 seats short of an overall majority

  3. I cant believe all this kerfuffle about ‘hung’ parliaments; try looking at Scotland Wales and NI where it has worked either as minority or coalition govts. Then try looking overseas where it has also worked well in many countries. Even try was it Belgium or Netherlands with basically no govt at ll for 6 months and no-one missed it.

    Just imagine the joy of not having another million policy changes to implement for no point… it’d be wonderful… (Anyone note all the Ministerial change of names under Labour that achieved exactly nothing but cost £1 billion pounds….and that’s what I mean. WE don’t need another govt introducing another million policy changes and a ton of paperwork to achieve exactly nothing. Basically any policy for education / health / defence will be quite ok so long as we get given time to implement it. Nothing really is terribly bad in this country which requires change after change… It’s just that politicians believe that frenetic policy changes are needed. I’d vote for someone who said for every law implemented a law must be removed. For every policy implemented in a Dept a policy must be removed…

    For example– education policy; all teachers must get a C at English and Maths and pass a literacy and numeracy test at the end of PGCE. Why? Either a C at GCSE shows you to literate and numerate or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t then change GCSE.The other test was a stupid imposition and a waste of time. And why numeracy for say art and drama teachers? They actually dont need it? And why English for literacy? Why not as an ‘either Literature / history / RE? The extra tests at the end are examples of the way stupid waste of time and waste of money paperwork has crept into society…

  4. Deary me, if that poll turned out to be true on the day the Tories would rip each other to pieces.

  5. Expected better than this for Labour – where was Osborne in the response to the chancellor?

  6. Oh gosh!

    I’m speechless ;-) for a mo.

  7. It’s like The Hare and the Tortoise ;-)

  8. So we’re all hearing the same +2 poll this evening? Seems a little out of place to me but reinforces the narrowing of the polls as seen with ICM and Op.

  9. need to get the number for Australia House. Emigration looking distictly possible

  10. Woodsman lol

    Please don’t say that – it already feels like the longest election ever – but I am enjoying it ;-)

  11. Adrian, if you do feel the need to go can you remind Paul Daniels that he promised to naff off 13 years ago.

    I’m still waiting.

  12. Goodness me. That is interesting. That is low even for YouGov. We will need to watch the developments over the next few days to see if there is a genuine trend. Too early to say at the moment. Certainly there should be not the tiniest hint of gloating from any Labour supporters until the actual votes are counted.

  13. YG are the only pollster putting a Labour anywhere near 34%.

    The two extreme pollster are AR/YG. The actual lead is somewhere in between. 5-7%

    Labour are only 1% less popular than 2005 GE, that is frankly ridiculous.

    IPOS-MORI poll found only 69% of Labour supporters from 05 will stick with them this time. And just under half are dissatisfied with GB. So 3 out of 10 will not stay with Labour.

  14. Barnaby
    I think you’re right -it’s time to keep our nerve and fingers x’d ;-)

  15. General Election 2005 Result Lab 36 Con 33 LB 22
    General Election 2010 Result ? starts to look much the same!

  16. @SIMON

    “The actual lead is somewhere in between. 5-7%”

    How do you know?

  17. There is one simple element for me at the polling booth: Democracy? Tories. State control – more and more of it? Labour. Small parties? The latter by default. This is a crucial election. Titanic and deck-chairs come to mind with the present regime. Some of the electorate are fast asleep to the reality.

  18. Through my job in advertising I have often work on parterships with the Metro and have used Harris to provide campaign results.

    They are dirt cheap and their work reflect this, typically its online surveys sent out via internet pop ups and done on mass. I very much doubt we can trust their work.

  19. Purely for my own amusement I have calculated the average poll scores from Anthonys “latest voting intention panel” so we have

    You gov 4.28 %
    Others 8.25%

    Hmmm…… one says hung parliament others says Tory Majority. And please no talking of MOE.

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