Sky News are reporting tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times as having topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc). There is clearly no significant change in the voting intention, and YouGov now seem to be showing lead of around 4 or 5 points, down from a week ago when their lead seemed pretty consistent at 6 points.

UPDATE: Looking at the rest of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll, the public think that the Conservatives are far more likely to cut spending on frontline public services by 50% to 14%. However, they also think the Conservatives are more likely to increase taxes (by 37% to 26%). The implication is that people think the Conservatives are more likely to actually cut down the deficit… but that this is not necessarily a political plus!

With Samantha Cameron about to join the campaign trail, there was also a question asked whether she or Sarah Brown would make the better Prime Ministerial consort – 29% said Sarah Brown to 25% for Samantha Cameron.


439 Responses to “YouGov Sunday Times poll – 37/33/17”

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  1. Looks like the UKPR polling average is a pretty fair reflection of where we are right now.

    Are these numbers correct? PB is reporting slightly different figures.

  2. Sky and PB reported different figures – could you check?

  3. Someone said bookmakers are always right ——-not
    quite true.
    Two points– punters not bookies determine odds
    and in the last close contest they were very wrong
    Polling Day 9th April 1992 Tory win majority 21
    Wm Hill 8th April 1992 -Labour 1-4 Cons 5-2 LD 200-1

  4. ICM 7% Conservative lead, You Gov 4%.

    Most importantly they both show the same trend.

    This starts to cast doubt on the validity of AR polls which show a different trend and vastly different figures. However before we draw a more concrete conclusion we need to see more polls from different companies with similar trends to ICM and YouGov .

    Regarding soft TV interviews. I think they were the solution for Gordon Brown, a substantial politician who needed to appear more human. I don’t think think they are the solution for David Cameron, a ‘humanised’ politician who needs to appear more substantial.

  5. The YouGov and ICM polls are virtually identical, if you take in the “Disloyal Labour” element. Labour goes up and LD goes down. Hence, Tories remain the same.

    This, of course, is the weighting that is attached to 2005 recall.

    I do not know how ICM weight. Do they do by “past recall”. In which case, I suspect, they do not adjust for “disloyal Labour”. Can anyone enlighten please ?

  6. Bookies just before the ’92 election had the Conservatives at 7-1 for an overall majority.

    I remember because I took those odds and made a nice amount on it.

    Moral: don’t assume bookies always know best.

  7. anthony

    Are Labour 33 or 34 please your heading and body rext still contradict

    Have you been drinking?

  8. What is going on ?

    pb have 38/34/17

    This thread has :-
    37/33/17

    AND/OR

    37/34/17

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Big John – “Have you been drinking?”

    Hey come on, its Saturday night. We should all be drinking.

  10. Very confuzzled about the true figures.

  11. An average of 5.5% excludong BPIX and AR.

    Quite firmly in hung parliament territory

  12. Would Sinn Féin take their 5 seats just to keep the Tories out?

    My own hunch (and this is my field of expertise) Yes!

    There is nothing incomatible about the pragmatism of Adams and taking the oath Dennis Skinner style.

    His constituency would just about stomach it.

  13. The most recent poll from each of the 10 pollsters average 38/31/19 (though the Populus 40/30/20 is rather old now).

    All are within margin of error of this figure except Angus Reid (26 for Labour) and Opinion (16 for Lib Dems).

  14. The Tories are losing support, because people are worried that their lack of experience, will prove to be a disaster if elected. Even the newspaper columnists that are generally supportive of them are questioning whether Cameron has made sufficient arguments to back the ‘time for change’ agenda.

    If Cameron and Osborne start to win the argument about immediate spending cuts and tax increases to deal with debt, then I can see the poll gap increasing, as people start gaining a bit more confidence.

    As it current stands I believe the 4%-6% gap is probably about right. I don’t see this changing until after the budget.

  15. R Huckle

    With vince cable arguing against early spending cuts you need not worry

  16. Hi AL J

    It is very exciting. I’m turning cartwheels. AR are truly an Alternative Reality compared to everybody else.

    :-) BTW – I’ve created a spreadsheet for your Prediction Game if Anthony lets us keep it going. I downloaded all the posts from the thread & have 136 posts with percents. Ave is C 38.01 L 32.2 & LD 20.4 (not much change from yours when it closed) :-)

  17. It is starting to look very much like the election battle will now be over largest seat count, not gaining a majority. And even then, government might not come with it.

  18. Percy

    I am not in favour of deep cuts until the economy is genuinely in a state of recovery. Even the Tories advisor Sir Alan Budd agrees with this, as does Vince.

    Of course if the government of whatever colour can trim budgets and make changes to tax, without affecting the chances of economic growth, then this would be sensible.

    I like 34% of those polled in tomorrows Telegraph ICM poll would like to see a hung parliament. I am fed up of majority governments bulldozing legislation through on whipped votes, without proper debate and scrutiny.

  19. @ EOIN CLARKE

    Would Sinn Féin take their 5 seats just to keep the Tories out?
    ———————————————————–
    That would cause the biggest row ever. I cannot begin to fathom what Labour’s reaction to this turn of events would be.

    Do you think Labour would support such a move by Sinn Fein?

  20. CON 37 (NO CHANGE)
    LAB 33 (-1)
    LD 17 (NO CHANGE)
    OTH 13

    have checked all on line reports of this yougov poll all show the above numbers

  21. Big John – trying to watch the Hurt Locker on Sky, tried to put the original error right in 10 seconds flat so I could get back to the film.

    More haste, less speed, dammit (now back to the film)

  22. @Amber

    Would Labour or would Brown?

    In august 1981 Tony Benn called for a united IReland. At the time he was the third most powerful voice in Labour.

    Today, I dont think he represents the majority of Labour voters. Thus, I would be inclined to say it would be hard for Labour to stomach.

    If however Brown soldiered out without a formal alliance in parliament eg. a minority gov., would he object to Shinners voting for his policies? Hmm……

  23. Anthony
    The real 15 min report on Ch 4 this week showing a Brit IED team in action for a whole day was more rivetting than the Hurt locker film.
    Ch 4 showed the Brit expertise under a Lab government

  24. 3-5% lead seems pretty steady and another nail in the Angus Reid coffin with ICM’s poll. It’s wide open and i’m growing more and more confident Labour will hold power.

    Do feel however, Cameron and the Cons will get a slight boost (2-4%) with their carefully occastrated McDonald interview due to be aired tomorrow. This however will only be a short term effect – and return to current levels by end of the week.

  25. No ComRes??
    Well that would be good really as we who follow the trend would prefer the ‘others’ (other than YouGov) spaced out – I mean spaced out in day of survey.

    I agree with Percy H about the C4 mine clearance item. I was in a cold sweat myself and I was 10,000 miles away from the poor sods doing it..

  26. Hi Amber

    That’s amazing. I was wondering if I should try to get my data to you –but you beat me to it lol. I’m very impressed. The %’s look remarkably steady. Well done ;-)

    The threads keep moving about tonight – so I’ve posted to you twice ;-)

  27. Youwhat ! are beginning to look like an organisation that can’t be taken seriously.

    Will sell my shares on Monday sharpish.

  28. So skewed is the constituency map, that if Conservatives and Labour each got 36% of the total vote, Labour would have a majority of about 100.

  29. @EOIN Clarke

    Re the shinners taking their seats, I am surprised you think they would, why do you think that ? the whole point of repulicanism is that they don’t recognise the the UK parliamnent as having legitimate authorirty over Ulster (using the word word Ulster deliberately)

  30. A bit worrying comment from Clegg the other day suggests he supports whoever gets the most votes, so those who vite LD to keep the tories out may be in for a shock. I hope he will clarify the LD position before the election.

  31. SF in Dublin, Belfast and London parliaments that would be a thing to see
    Of course if they fielded candidates in Liverpool, Glasgow and Kilburn etc that would put the cat among the pigeons

  32. ‘R HUCKLE
    The Tories are losing support, because people are worried that their lack of experience, will prove to be a disaster if elected.’

    Sez who? People are sick of Labour for all sorts of reasons (illegal wars / ID cards / paranoid police state / ‘economy’; though all they did was do Tory economic policy etc…)

    Nothing to do with Tory inexperience ( I note in Australia that Labour got in at the height of the economic boom; why: time for a change and the opposition had a vision / brand). The probelm is Tory has no new brand, Name one thing that inspires people to change sides and vote for them? The silence is deafening. Samcam? Another million little policy changes like we have just had with labour? Both parties are the same but with minor changes of emphasis really…

    The tories were relying on ‘time for a change getting them over the lectoral line. It’s not worrking. They need to provide a new brand; something radical–perhaps an English Parliament? Am elected Upper House?…

    In my dreams. The more the tories dont come up with something radical the more they seem the same old slash and burn politicians. The more their leads evaporates…

  33. ‘BRYAN COOMBE
    @EOIN Clarke
    Re the shinners taking their seats, I am surprised you think they would, why do you think that ? the whole point of repulicanism is that they don’t recognise the the UK parliamnent as having legitimate authorirty over Ulster (using the word word Ulster deliberately)’

    Good as Ulster is part of Ireland as well.

  34. I’ve recently been reading a book by John Ross entitled “Thatcher and Friend’s, the Anatomy of the Tory Party”. and it contains some very interesting insights into why, at a time of unpredcedented unpopularity for Labour, the Tory vote share, as predicted by recent polls, has stagnated in the upper 30s. Here are some of the more interesting passages: –

    “Taking Tory victories after the immediate post-World War II period the Conservative percentage of the vote was 49.6% in 1955, 49.4% in 1959, 46.4%, in 1970, 43.9% in 1979, 42.4%, in 1983, 42.2% in 1987, and 41.9% in 1992. This trend would imply a further Tory fall, to slightly above or below 40% at an election held in 2010…………”

    “The analysis presented here of the trend of the underlying social decline in Tory Party support has been factually vindicated by the results in six general elections, over a 26 year period, since it was written. It continues to explain the latest opinion polls and by-election results. Its consequences are clear. The Tories, a party in long term decline, cannot by their own efforts win the general election. Labour can merely lose it. Labour need not worry about the attractiveness of Tory ideas – they have been shown by real elections not to be attractive……”

    “However evidently the disintegration of Tory support, and the consigning of the party to almost a decade and a half in the political willingness after 1992, was not a surprise in such an analysis. Nor, therefore, is the current confinement of the Tory Party, in what is a good period for it, to the low 40s in the opinion polls. Such figures are not accidental, nor can they be easily reversed, but are part of the long term falling trend of Conservative social support……”

    We clearly live in very interesting times.

  35. In March, Con leads
    YouGov average 5.1
    Non YouGov average 7.8
    Overall average 6.2
    YouGov and AR are 2 opposite extremes
    Average without YouGov and AR 6.8
    Likely range in round numbers 4 to 8.
    By Andy Cooke Seat Calculator (politicalbetting)
    Con seats range 301 to 360.
    Con has largest party or majority

  36. I’m sure the Labour boost has come mainly from the growing economic confidence ratings plus the sense that Cameron has been drifting somewhat while Labour have sharpened up on both policy and presentation. The budget is going to be very interesting – the last two financial set pieces have both hurt Labour but there is a chance that this time people expect the numbers to be bad and so it might be a bit more neutral.

    The reporting of politics and polls in itself could start to have an impact. The Tories are big proponents of the ‘nudge’ theory, where people react to more subtle forms of communication. A classic form of nudge is to give people a sense of what most ‘normal’ people are doing, as this makes them more likely to follow suite. While Labour was ‘hated’ it’s not surprising people didn’t want to vote for them. Now the media narrative is ‘shrinking poll lead’, ‘more woes for Cameron’ etc. According to nudge theory, this in itself is more likely to make people consider supporting Labour. It would be something of an irony if Cameron was ultimately foiled by the application of a trendy new theory of social dynamics he tried to make his own.

  37. WMA 37:32:18 but due to rounding the CLead is still 6.

    It’s pretty clear that the fall in the CLead has stopped over the last 2 weeks. Remains to see what happens next.

  38. @JACK

    Northern Ireland politics is dreadful.

    I shouldn’t have posted. That dreadful place, beautiful in sight deadly in hindsight………

    Yes Ulster is part of Ireland, the North of Ireland.

  39. @Nick,

    That’s all very erudite, but frankly I think the Tories’ problems in 2010 have more to do with the credit crunch and George Osborne than any kind of tectonic shift in their place in politics.

    All democratic countries have a strong right of centre party. In almost all of them that party rules for at least a significant proportion of the time. If the Tories truly are in terminal decline, their standard will be taken up eventually by some other party.

  40. @Jack – “Am elected Upper House?… ”
    Read the Sunday Telegraph – Labour is apparently about to propose an all elected Senate, with reportedly 400+ fewer members than the present Lords. Trumps Cameron’s pledge to reduce MP numbers to ‘cut the cost of democracy’ [ho ho]. I think you are right in many ways – there was an opportunity for a radical and clearly defined opposition to sweep into power and mash a stale Labour party. Cameron basically dithered and stayed obsessed with image based politics and Labour has meanwhile rediscovered some of it’s raison d’etre, although I wouldn’t blow trumpets about that just yet.

  41. @NICK HADLEY

    Utter tripe.

  42. Would Gordon Brown try to let Sinn Fein in to prop up his government? The reason why it might disgust some apply equally for letting Sinn Fein have any power in Northern Ireland. So, that pass has already been sold, morally speaking.

    I am sure Gordon has thought about it, and I am sure Peter Mandelson has pointed out that it would create bad headlines at a time when they are managing to control the grid fairly well. A minority labour government would doubtless find a way to deal with the problem later.

    It is just that Sinn Fein were intransigent over the oath, and Betty Boothroyd was equally forthright. John Bercow is not made of similar material, so it is best to count Sinn Fein in, albeit that it might take a month or so to do the necessary changes.

  43. Saltfordman – “YouGov and AR are 2 opposite extremes”

    Only in the sense that they are the min and max (though a trimmed average is no bad thing).

    You’re own figures show YouGov’s lead is only 1.7% off the average excluding YouGov and ARS.

    ARS on the other hand is 6.2% off this average.

  44. Bryan C
    If I post about your last, the following remark

    ‘utter tripe’

    does that impress you as much as yours did me?

    A reasoning would have been helpful.

  45. @ Nick Hadley – that is totally fascinating. That pretty much coincides with the period that the SDP were formed. The combined Lab/Lib vote has been a huge majority when combined and surely points to a more liberal, centre left society. That would support the steady drop in Con support – they are being squeezed

  46. Bryan Combe – you crack me up

  47. @Nick Hadley
    “Taking Tory victories after the immediate post-World War II period the Conservative percentage of the vote was 49.6% in 1955, 49.4% in 1959, 46.4%, in 1970, 43.9% in 1979, 42.4%, in 1983, 42.2% in 1987, and 41.9% in 1992.”

    Much the same pattern is shown by Labour post-war victories.

    1945 48.9
    1950 46.0
    1964 44.1
    1966 48.0
    1974 Feb 37.2
    1974 Oct 39.3
    1997 43.3
    2001 40.7
    2005 35.3

    Not quite such a regular pattern, but still a drop of about 13% since the first post-war victory (and indeed from 1966)

  48. @Bryan Coombe

    Not utter tripe at all. This country has become a steadily more “left of centre” one for decades now. Not all of this support has gone to Labour, but to the increasingly LOC groups.

    The Tories are now on 38% or so, with UKIP taking a further 4%. The rest of the vote — at least 55% excluding NI — is divided among Labour, Liberals, Greens, Nationalists and the BNP. All of these (including the BNP, to the eternal disdain of any educated left-leaning person) are leftist in their economic policy (I discount the social aspect as the authoritarians are pretty much spent as a legitimate political force, thank goodness).

    With this being the case, the only thing that is giving the economic right any chance of government at all with FPTP is the fact that the Tory party have not fractured in the way the left have.

    The right is in the minority, and this is reflected both in the polls and the “unfair” allocation of seats (which in reality are still unfairly biased toward the Conservative party).

    This is why the Tories are so afraid of PR. It’d be a cold day in hell before they got a sniff of power in their current form.

  49. I am so looking forward to seeing the Portillo type expressions post 6th May. GB should go to the country now never mind waiting for the budget. The Tories are nervously awaiting defeat.

  50. Apologies Howard

    “Taking Tory victories after the immediate post-World War II period the Conservative percentage of the vote was 49.6% in 1955, 49.4% in 1959, 46.4%, in 1970, 43.9% in 1979, 42.4%, in 1983, 42.2% in 1987, and 41.9% in 1992. This trend would imply a further Tory fall, to slightly above or below 40% at an election held in 2010…………”

    Trying to project what would happen in 2010 in the context of the 1950s 60 s or 70s is like trying to compare who will be no1 in the BBC charts. Really desperate intellectual reasoning.

    “The Tories, a party in long term decline, cannot by their own efforts win the general election.”

    Parties adapt and change, even if they may not win today they will spring anew and differently to adapt to the landscape. May not even seem to be Conservative by todays standard.

    “Labour can merely lose it”

    Well there is the old adage “govenments lose elections oppositions don’t win them”

    Or i prefer Sam Allardyce today Spurs didn’t win we lost by our defending.

    Funny that becasue we still got three points.

    I could go on and on and on

    UTTER TRIPE

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