There is an ICM poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures are CON 38%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 21%(+3). Changes are from ICM’s last poll at the start of March.

There’s a drop in Conservative support and a boost for the Liberal Democrats – the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday so this is too early to be the result of coverage from the Lib Dem conference. The Conservative lead has dropped to 7 points in a similar trend to that we’ve seen from YouGov over the last week, though their overall figures are different (YouGov has Labour higher, ICM have the Lib Dems higher).

ICM also asked whether people trusted Gordon Brown or David Cameron more on various issues. Cameron was narrowly trusted more on the economy (by 3 points), education (by 7 points) and the NHS (by 2 points) (though the gap has narrowed since the same questions were asked in January).

Later tonight there should be a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times and possibly (I’ve had no information about it, but may be due this weekend) a ComRes poll.

70 Responses to “ICM show 7 point Tory lead”

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    I agree with Sue – there’s a surprise ;-)

    Lots done but its now time to update policies to meet the much higher expectations of today’s parents.

  2. Hi AL J

    It is very exciting. I’m turning cartwheels. AR are truly an Alternative Reality compared to everybody else.

    :-) BTW – I’ve created a spreadsheet for your Prediction Game if Anthony lets us keep it going. I downloaded all the posts from the thread & have 136 posts with percents. Ave is C 38.01 L 32.2 & LD 20.4 (not much change from yours when it closed) :-)

  3. Posts deleted when I was being neutral and suggesting that a hung parliament, might not be a bad idea.

    The polls reflect that roughly a third of the electorate may actually want a hung parliament.

  4. Amber

    That’s amazing. I was wondering if I should try to get my data to you –but you beat me to it lol. I’m impressed. The %’s look remarkably steady. Well done. ;-)

  5. Hi AL J

    I am dancing! Where YG leads, others polls are following. YG next week 3 – 0 gap, maybe? Other polls 7 – 4 gap (except AR of course)?

    President Obama’s campaign via unions will begin working in the marginals? That would really get the complacent CONS frit ;-)

  6. Biggest trend at the moment seems to be Others gaining at the expense of the Conservatives. I’m assuming this is UKIP rather than BNP or Greens.

    (that’s odd, I couldn’t enter the “captcha code” at first)

  7. Sue Marsh and John B Dick. Thanks for trying to explain the inexplicable.

  8. Amber
    lol ;-) Me too

    **President Obama’s campaign via unions will begin working in the marginals**

    I’ve heard something like this before. I haven’t kept up properly – please can you explain what it means?(unless it’s a secret) ;-) Thanks

  9. Pete B

    I agree totally. I think if the Conservatives sounded a bit more upbeat about the economy (i.e. told everyone that all would be fine, no one would have to pay for the recession (i.e. lie like Labour and the Lib Dems) and concentrated on other key areas such as the justice system Immigration and the benefits system (which are all a complete shambles), they would have a lot more success with the electorate. Even the Tories’ election slogan about change is wrong because, by their nature, people are averse to change. It just shows how the Tories are not taking advantage of Labour’s clear incompetence in ruling this country.

  10. Last ComRes was on 28th Feb Con 37 Lab32 LD19

    I guess the next ComRes will be tomorrow since it wasn’t tonight. My prediction for it is (stick my neck out a bit).

    Con 36 Lab 33 LD 20 ;-)

  11. @ AL J

    President Obama’s election team is helping Labour.

    They have passed on to Labour their grassroots campaign tactic. Any union member who is pro-Labour can register to campaign on Labour’s behalf. They are given the contact details for other union members – especially if they are in a target marginal.

    The union campaigner can then call the union member(s) on their list. The campaigner knows their common union membership will give them a talking point before they move on to discussing politics & voting intentions.

    It gives union members (voters) the opportunity to be listened to by their union & have their views taken into account – as well as being asked to support Labour.

    The CONS have nothing to match it. It could be a winning strategy that will give people the motivation to vote rather than staying away because they’re bored &/or disillusioned with politicians.

  12. Hi AL J

    Consensus seems to be that there won’t be a COMRES this weekend.

    Maybe they’re holding off until next week to have more impact.


    NHS cuts are already happening. Labour will protect the NHS no more than anyone else.

  14. @ PETE B

    NHS cuts are already happening. Labour will protect the NHS no more than anyone else.
    Voters are smart enough to appreciate the distiction between protecting the NHS budget & protecting the NHS.

    Cameron has made protecting the NHS budget a central plank of his spending pledge. It hasn’t impressed the voters. Either they don’t believe him or they think there is potential for efficiency savings in the NHS.


  15. Amber

    Thanks for that explanation. It sounds well organized and certainly a winning strategy. With so many people involved it’s bound to have a major impact on the campaign and eventually the polls. I read somewhere that people are more likely to vote for a party if they are contacted. The polls are closing – I see no reason to think it won’t continue. Fascinating when you think where things were just a few weeks ago.Without sounding over excited – I am lol ;-)

    ComRes not out this w/e. I wonder why they would hold it! Does it hide some unexpected news? It’s got me intrigued – again.

  16. Pete B

    You should make clear which of the 4 NHS systems in the UK you are referring to.

  17. @Daivd 8-38pm…


    I still think it’s around 9%, maybe more



    Tories by around 20 seats..

    IMHO.. ;-)

  18. To me if I were Cameron a lot of my main focus would be not on so much on HOW we are going to get out of this MASSIVE mess but moreover who put us in it and HOW….! THAT is what I would be hammering home, the fact we shoul;dn’t be having to go through all this anyhow. Whilst Lab and Lib criticise Tories for their lack of policies I don’t see either of them coming up with anything either. And why should the Tories give anything away at the moment when all Brown and co do is rehash them and steal them anyway….?

    Just a thought…

  19. I’d suggest that Craig’s constribution controvenes rules of mpartiality on this site, and to a lesser extent Dave’s

  20. Gareth – you say

    “I wrote a witty and perceptive post then it disappeared.

    What would George Orwell say?”

    He’s too busy thanking his lucky stars he changed his name to say anything!

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