Ipsos-MORI’s monthly poll has also been published and is up on their website here. Their topline figures, with changes from their last poll in mid-December, are CON 40%(-3), LAB 32%(+6), LDEM 16%(-4).

It’s a big shift back to Labour, but to some extent it seems to be a correction from a rather outlandish poll in December, which had showed the Conservatives at 43% when everyone else had them near 40% and Labour down in the mid 20s. This 8 point lead is the smallest of all the January polls so far, but only by a point.

On other questions MORI found Gordon Brown’s net approval rising to minus 26 and David Cameron’s dropping to plus 3. Nick Clegg retained the most positive net rating on plus 16. Sadly MORI don’t appear to have asked an economic confidence question – it would have been interesting to see if there had been an increase in economic confidence on the back of the country leaving recession.

The fieldwork was done between Tuesday and Thursday, which seems to be a slight departure – previously I think MORI did their telephone political monitors over the weekend, hence the long gap between fieldwork and publication when it appeared in Sunday newspapers.

This gives us one post-recession poll showing no change, and one showing the gap narrowing. Don’t worry, there’s more to come over the next week.

9 Responses to “Ipsos MORI show lead Tory narrowing to 8”

  1. 74.In the past year MORI has given us Conservative leads of;

    And now;



  2. You have to wonder about polls flailing about to this extent (and to a degree about MORI at any time).

    if it is anywhere near an election result then David Cameron isn’t going to have much of a majority. If nobody mentions “Europe” for a bit this might be okay.

  3. Telegraph apparently suggesting YouGov has the Tory lead down. Anyone got details?

  4. BBC newspaper review saying the Conservative lead in the Telegraph/YouGov poll is just 7%. Would be the smallest Tory lead with YouGov in a NON tracker poll since the Obama summit in April 2009;


  5. Reuters figures are 38/31/19 so change since last YouGov – -2/nc/+1 so all MoE stuff.

  6. Daily Telegraph YouGov survey; Conservatives 38% (-2% on last month), Labour 31% (+1%) and Lib Dems 19% (+2%).

  7. All more grist to the mill that shows since November the Tory lead being remorselessly (if very slowly and by small amounts) reduced…also in a week when more information on Tories approach to economy has been available (“expect austerity from us”; “if it means a double-dip so be it”)

    **The last 6 polls (excluding- obviously- the poll from space cadets AR) now give us**

    Con = 39.7
    Lab = 30.2
    LD = 18.7


    at UPR Tories 2 short (first time I have *ever* seen that at UPR since I started using it……….)

    at EC (not using their TV option) Tory majority of 10


  8. Ipos-MORI have had some….interesting polls as of late. But this, along with the YouGov poll (especially the YouGov poll) must give Labour some hope. Personally, I don’t believe the Tories will get a safe majority, either it be a hung parliament, or a slim majority for the Tories.

  9. This (and the other one which shows a 7% lead) put Angus Reid in perspective.