Sunday Polls

I was up in Scotland at a wedding this weekend, so wasn’t around to herald the arrival of ComRes’s latest poll for the Independent on Sunday last night (I had set a Sunday poll discussion thread to automatically appear for you all… but it didn’t. Such is life!)

Anyway, topline figures from ComRes were CON 41%(-1), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 18%(nc). Other parties remained on 16%. While the Conservatives have shifted slightly in the rounding, this is essentially showing no change in support at all since ComRes’s last poll at the end of July. As suggested by YouGov’s poll last weekend, the row over the NHS doesn’t seem to have had any effect upon party support.

On the specific issue of the NHS, ComRes asked if people agreed or disagreed with the statement “The NHS would be safer under Labour than the Conservatives”. 39% of people agreed, but 47% disagreed (I would, however, be slightly wary about drawing the conclusion that Andrew Hawkins of ComRes did that this means Labour have lost their advantage on the NHS. We can tell that 39% think Labour are better on the NHS, but that 47% don’t necessarily prefer the Conservatives as someone who thought both parties were equally bad could also disagree with the statement).

ComRes also found 65% of people agreeing with the idea floated by Compass that there should be a “high pay commission to curb excessive pay and bonuses”.

There was also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday. The Mail on Sunday reported the topline figures as CON 36%, LAB 24%, LDEM 17%. The changes since the last BPIX poll back in May would be Conservatives down 6, Labour up 4 and Lib Dems up 2, with others presumably remaining on 23% (it wasn’t made clear in the MoS).

Other pollsters have shown support for others falling significantly since then, so this seems somewhat anomalous. Mike Smithson has raised the question of whether these figures were re-percentaged to exclude don’t knows or not. If not, the figures obviously wouldn’t be comparable… but without the tables we can’t tell.

20 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

  1. Are BPIX polls somehow unreliable and, if so, why?

  2. Anthony,

    Up in Scotland and you didn’t come to visit… I am hurt.

    Where was it?


  3. Andy – they are not presently members of the BPC, and have rarely provided tables, so it’s not possible to double check things like whether don’t knows have been excluded in the way you could for ICM, for example.

    Peter – Edinburgh, though I’m in Glasgow next weekend :)

  4. Anthony,

    “Edinburgh, though I’m in Glasgow next weekend”

    From the sublime to the ridiculous…..One week a luviee, the next a weggie.


  5. Peter,

    If I recall correctly, you are on the Black Isle, so it’s a big diversion – even from Inverness !

  6. Paul,

    The Black Isle isn’t a long way from Inverness, its beside it joined by a bridge with a dual carriageway. In fact its not even an island, its a peninsula….

    Still as my knowledge of English geography is abysmal I can’t complain.


  7. Again Comres is polling considerably lower for Labour than Yougov!?

    The 24% from Comres is bang on target with my expectation. I fully expect Labour to get between 22 and 26% at the GE. I think that by October more people may be converted to this expectation.

    I can’t see ‘others’ gaining 16% at the GE, that would 3 times more than they gained last time! Much more likely is 6 to 10%

    The Cons seem likely to win between 41 to 44%

    If they all perform to what I consider to be their best then the Lib Dems will be left with 20%. But if they perform at their worst then it is just about conceivable the Lib Dems could gain 31%

    The Lib Dems performance at the GE I find most difficult to predict, partly I suppose because I WANT them to do well. For now I predict that the Lib Dems will gain somewhere between 20 and 28%

  8. I beg your pardon ‘others’ gained 6.86 last time. I think they must do better this time – probably somewhere between 7 to 11%. This would leave the Lib Dems on 19% as the worst senario and 30% as the best.

  9. If the majority of Labour MPs suddenly come round to the view that they may be heading for less than 28% and/or 209 seats as Foot received in 1983 I wonder what their reaction might be? Maybe just remaining silent and waiting for it all to be over as quickly as possible is the most likely one.

  10. philip jw- that would mean labour would be in third place if the lib dems made 30% and maybe the third party as well this would be a shock if it happeed and would bring in a new earer of govenment in the united kingdom and one that could see labour fade into nothing this to me would be the best result and i think looking at the polls we could see a shift towards the tores after the conferance season maybe only 4 or 5% but that will give the tories a boost in the polls and the lib dems could well be up this could make for an intresting election night if all the results are not being counted the next day!!!!! which thay should never be all votes should be counted on the night.

  11. I think that predictions of the Lib Dems achieving 30% of the vote are somewhat rosy to say the least. The battle-lines are clearly drawn between the Conservatives and Labour, they are the ones prepared to slug it out.

    As far as I can see the Lib Dems are coming across as indistinct. Nick Clegg certainly does not behave like the leader a major opposition party and potential PM. It’s almost as if by chance they achieve the balance of power in parliament that they don’t want to offend either of the two larger parties. To emerge as the main opposition party or even governing party, the Lib Dems must begin to behave like one.

    In any case, no polls since 2003 have even hinted that the Lib Dems can achieve a result in the high twenties or low thirties. It appears that the polls over the last number of months have been fairly accurate in showing a large Conservative lead with Labour suffering a humiliating defeat next year and the underpreforming Lib Dems trailing in third place and down on their 2005 vote share and seat total.

    Forget about the PR argument and their relatively even levels of support across the UK; the Lib Dems aren’t supported by the people because they don’t appear to be up to the task of leading the people.

  12. I am assuming Philip was being a little tongue in cheek suggesting the Libdems might gain 30%, or even 28%. I think a realistic range for the Libdems is 18% – 22%. Labour are very likely to do better than the 24% they are on just now. Much as I would love to see Labour on 24 come the election, I think they are more likely to be around 27/28%. I would put the Conservatives on 42% – 44%, while others are likely to score around 10% or just under.

  13. Neil,

    I generall agree with your predictions albeit, I think the tories could reach 42-46%

  14. Andy,

    Considering that Labour has been consistently below 30% since Easter – and only two polls have shown them as high as 28% – I would be surprised if there are that many Labour MPs (outside Brown’s inner circle who seem mired in denial) who are confident of winning much more than 28%.

    On the other hand, the impression is indeed that many are just keeping silent and waiting for it all to be over. But not as quickly as possible. Most seem happy to hang on until May to collect their pay and perks until retreaating to the dole queue.

  15. Anthony,

    PB are reporting a megrahi poll although it doesn’t say who conducted it. Sample is just over 1,000.

    It does however show that the Tories are the party least likely to support release or the original conviction, while LibDem supporters are the most likely to support the release and most likely to question the conviction.

    So I suppose nothing you wouldn’t suspect.


  16. The difference between these 2 polls is striking; Comres, pretty much in line with other recent polls – Tories above 40, Labour languishing in the 20’s and the Libs below 20. The surprise is BPIX who are totally out of kilter with the other major polling organisations. Can anyone offer a rational explanation for this, or would it be wise simply to dismiss the Mail on this occasion?

  17. Presumably the Others in this poll is a UK wide figure and includes SNP, PC and the NI parties. This figure in the 2005 election was 10% and there’s no reason to reject the possibility that it will increase a little in the next election.

  18. Labour down 2 in latest Guardian/ICM poll
    Tories ahead of Labour on health so the recent happenings have not helped Labour
    More Liberal voters prefer a Tory government to Labour so possibly Labour will suffer from tactical voting
    Let’s face it – Labour are finished in government for a while at least
    Full figures Tories 41 (nc ) Labour 25 (-2) LibDem 1(+1) Others 14 (+2)

  19. Correction – Labour has dropped to a 3 per cent lead on health


    And SNP/PC up 2% (polling done the weekend after MacAskill’s release of Megrahi)