Foreign Polls – Israel
One of the new additions I asked about in my user survey (I’ll give more results soon, at the moment it’s still open for people who haven’t filled it in yet) was whether people wanted to see more foreign polls here to fill the gaps between British polling figures.
Obviously UKPollingReport is always going to be 99% about British polls, but to fill some of those gaps between polls being released I’m going to occassionally look at the polls in upcoming elections in other countries, so looking in the 2009 calender, that means places like Germany, Iceland and, to start off with, Israel.
Israel goes to the polls on the 11th February, an early election called after the failure of the new leader of Kadima, Tzipi Livni, to form a government. The outgoing Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, led a coalition mainly consisting of Kadima, Labor, Shas and – from 2006 to 2008 – the hard right Yisrael Beiteinu.
The polls since the election was called in October are shown below. You’ll probably notice that the figures often sum to more than 100 – Israel has a famously pure version of proportional representation, a nationwide list system with a threshhold for representation of only 2%, and since share of the vote translates directly into seats it is the norm for polls to show projected seats, not percentage vote. There are 120 seats in total.
| Kad | Lab | Likud | Shas | YB | JH | Mtz | UTJ | Arab | ||
| Panels | 26/01/09 | 22 | 15 | 29 | 11 | 16 | – | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| Channel 1 | 25/01/09 | 22 | 17 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Teleseker | 23/01/09 | 24 | 16 | 28 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Dahaf | 23/01/09 | 25 | 17 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Globes | 22/01/09 | 21 | 15 | 32 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 22/01/09 | 24 | 15 | 30 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Gal Hadash | 22/01/09 | 25 | 15 | 35 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 21/01/09 | 22 | 14 | 30 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Channel 1 | 20/01/09 | 21 | 15 | 33 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Panels | 19/01/09 | 24 | 14 | 30 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Survey 10 | 18/01/09 | 26 | 14 | 29 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 18/01/09 | 23 | 15 | 31 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Teleseker | 16/01/09 | 26 | 17 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Globes | 15/01/09 | 22 | 16 | 33 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Panels | 15/01/09 | 27 | 15 | 29 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Reshet Bet | 15/01/09 | 21 | 15 | 28 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Dialog | 15/01/09 | 25 | 16 | 29 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 14/01/09 | 26 | 16 | 28 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 12/01/09 | 28 | 13 | 33 | 8 | 13 | – | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Channel 1 | 09/01/09 | 22 | 16 | 31 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Panels | 08/01/09 | 27 | 15 | 31 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Gal Hadash | 08/01/09 | 27 | 15 | 33 | 10 | 10 | – | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Globes/Radius | 07/01/09 | 27 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 07/01/09 | 25 | 17 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Survey 10 | 07/01/09 | 27 | 16 | 31 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 05/01/09 | 28 | 15 | 31 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Smith/Jerusalem Post | 02/01/09 | 23 | 15 | 29 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| Teleseker | 02/01/09 | 28 | 16 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 01/01/09 | 27 | 14 | 30 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| Globes | 01/01/09 | 22 | 12 | 38 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| Dialog | 01/01/09 | 27 | 16 | 32 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 29/12/08 | 29 | 14 | 29 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| Survey 10 | 28/12/08 | 28 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Teleseker | 26/12/08 | 30 | 11 | 29 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 25/12/08 | 27 | 11 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| Reshet Bet | 25/12/08 | 23 | 14 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Dahaf | 25/12/08 | 26 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| Dialog | 25/12/08 | 26 | 11 | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Globes/Radius | 24/12/08 | 23 | 9 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 24/12/08 | 25 | 11 | 31 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Panels | 22/12/08 | 29 | 10 | 28 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Teleseker | 19/12/08 | 30 | 12 | 30 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 18/12/08 | 30 | 10 | 29 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 17/12/08 | 25 | 10 | 29 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Channel 1 | 16/12/08 | 21 | 12 | 39 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| Panels | 15/12/08 | 27 | 13 | 31 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Teleseker | 11/12/08 | 28 | 12 | 31 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Panels | 11/12/08 | 28 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Reshet Bet | 11/12/08 | 21 | 15 | 35 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Channel 1 | 10/12/08 | 23 | 11 | 36 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| Dialog | 10/12/08 | 27 | 12 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
| Dahaf | 10/12/08 | 24 | 11 | 31 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 01/12/08 | 25 | 6 | 33 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Gal Hadash | 01/12/08 | 26 | 8 | 35 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Channel 1 | 25/11/08 | 25 | 7 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 20/11/08 | 28 | 9 | 33 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Reshet Bet | 20/11/08 | 23 | 8 | 34 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| Dialog | 20/11/08 | 28 | 10 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| Dahaf | 20/11/08 | 26 | 8 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Gal Hadash | 13/11/08 | 28 | 11 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Smith/Jerusalem Post | 31/10/08 | 27 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Dialog | 30/10/08 | 31 | 10 | 31 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Gal Hadash | 30/10/08 | 30 | 13 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Channel 1 | 28/10/08 | 32 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| Teleseker | 27/10/08 | 31 | 11 | 29 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Dahaf | 27/10/08 | 29 | 11 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Maagar Mochot/Channel 2 | 24/10/08 | 31 | 12 | 29 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Since early in November Likud have been leading in the polls. The election period has obviously been dominated by the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, but this has not helped Kadima. Instead the parties that have benefitted since Israel began bombing Gaza on January 27th have been Labor, lead by the current Defence minister, Ehud Barak, and the hardline Yisrael Beiteinu.
It looks very likely that Likud will emerge the largest party, a big turnaround from the last election in 2006 when they were pushed into fourth place after the split in the party that formed Kadima. Naturally, it doesn’t necessarily follow that Likud will be able to cobble together a coalition that wields a majority in the Knesset.
(And my apologies for any strange translations of pollsters’ names, since many came via me putting Hewbrew text in the google translator :) )
In addition to Israel, I’m very interested in the German polls leading up to the election later this year. It always seems to be a close run thing as to whether the Christian Democrats can form a government with the Free Democrats (which is their first choice of coalition partner). At the last election they jointly polled 45%, which was just short of the 47% or so that’s needed to form a government.
Nice to see some foreign poll data Anthony. Very good idea in my opinion.
On the Israel election, can anyone give me an idea of what the main parties stand for. A brief heads up on Right/left, Hawkish/Dovish leanings would be great for one who has very little knowledge of politics there.
Looks like they have to have fairly broad coalitions in order to govern effectively too?
If the electorate thinks they have killed enough Palestinians Likud should be OK. If not Netanyahu wins. Not good news that the Turks have accused Israel of mass murder in Gaza.but judging by what’s on the Israeli right-wing sites they don’t care. I believe Netanyahu is a friend of Gordon Brown.
Thanks Anthony – it’s a real struggle finding this sort of polling data without knowing where to look.
Ivan – judging by recent events, perhaps hawk/eagle would be more appropriate than hawk/dove?
The most recent poll (today) shows the continuation of a slow but discernible shift to Kadima from Likud. As the dust (literally) settles after the Gaza Conflict, it will be the perception of right wing voters as to whether the conflict was a success which will determine if Livni stays in power.
The polling data definitely supports Likud as the largest party. I would be very surprised if Likud didn’t form a ruling coalition with YB and the right wing of Kadima.
Wolf – Bibi is the leader of Likud, I think you meant Kadima in the first half of your sentence.
Reuters is reporting an 11 point conservative lead in the latest YouGov poll – 43/32/16
http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKTRE50S79W20090129
Anthony
Thanks for your correction. Apparently the Labour Party ( did Golda Meir used to be their leader?) are making ground promising a tough approach to the Palestinians.. Not many votes for a LibDem type party under extreme PR.