Despite the report in today’s Telegraph, which managed to publish ICM’s polls from a couple of week’s back as a brand new one, there will not after all be another ICM poll on the mayoral elections. That means YouGov’s “morning-of-poll” effort is the only one left to go before the results on Friday.

18 Responses to “One more London poll to go”

  1. It’s so exciting, the tension is mounting. Politics is actually interesting again.

  2. Hmm. I don’t live in London. And my local council is not having an election….

  3. Just seen the news about Kate Hoey. Will this have a significant effect? I am surprised that she has allowed it to be known BEFORE the election. She must be ‘confident’ of a Boris win otherwise she will look very stupid on Friday morning and her standing in Labour party will be that of a leper.

    Just noted that elections next year are for County Councils in May and Europe in June. Is this correct or can they be moved to happen on the same day? If they can’t be moved it would be interesting to see the effects of turnout as the second election would occur after nearly 8 weeks of various campagining

  4. looks like the Kate Hoey comment was a typical last minute Tory trick. She has refuted the comments by Boris and Cameron in the Guardian

    Will be interesting to see what You Gov come up with on thursday, since their polling has been so at odds with everyone elses.

  5. Adrian @ 3:37 pm:

    Dear heart, where have you been?

    Hoey’s political leprosy has been so well advanced, to the extent that bits have been dropping off for some time. Her relations with her Constituency Party screech with the strain: alas! many in Vauxhall fail to share Catharine Letitia’s high and self-basting opinion of herself and her political talents.

    The fox-huntin’ bit didn’t help (chairing the Countryside mob — which is pledged to unseat Labour MPs — while possessed of an inner-city seat: hardly left-brain stuff), especially when she signally declined to condemn a huntin’ assault on a fellow MP. She’s considered dodgy on things African. Forty years on, nobody has quite worked out how this Young Ulster Unionist miss could flit and flirt to and fro among the Belfast marxists (all six of ’em).

    And the lurve-affair with Johnson (or, rather, the hate-affair with Ken) — which is the root of the matter — is nothing new.

  6. Malc,
    If this is the case, why has she not been de-selected in the past?

  7. So its OK for Gordon to gather all around him from other parties in his big tent, but its somehow not OK to let Kate advise Boris down at City Hall.

  8. Yes – it’s close now – the tension mounts !!

  9. Anthony,

    I assume YouGov are making you work harder in the run-up to the elections. The extra discussions are fun, especially given the extra leg-room for sniping. [Be quiet, Billary may be about! ;) ]

    If not, are your bosses trying to increase productivity?

  10. Anthony – what happens inside a polling organisation when you’re consistently producing polls which are at odds with the others being produced?

    Is there checking and double checking (which I’d assume happens anyway)? Do people look to tweak or question methodologies? Or look at reasons why? Or prepare their resignations in case it is that far out (and put the champaign on ice if you’re right). Or do you just all get on with it confident in what you do?

    Oh, one other question I have as a pollster which is better:

    The results are in and say they’re roughly Boris 51/Ken 49.

    This means that YouGov predicted the result but were outside their margins of error, MORI got the result wrong but were inside theirs.

    Publicly it’s getting the result right but surely as statisticians the important thing is the accuracy of your predictions?

  11. Tension is indeed mounting. I have a one-way ticket on standby in case Boris wins…. ;)

  12. Interesting questions Jon H.

    There is certainly going to be considerable entrail examination after the real results appear.

    Ken has issued a Press Release today with this headline :-

    “Evening Standard/YouGov plan new flawed poll to seek to influence election on Thursday.”


  13. Anthony , Is the detailed data from the 2nd mruk poll available online ???

  14. This by-election should be Conservative. The Nantwich area and the national polls should deliver it for them by around 5-7%. They will struggle to hold the seat in a General Election though – even if they poll strongly, Labour is fairly likely to reverse the result by around 2,000.

  15. I’ve posted in the wrong thread above – meant to be the Crewe and Nantwich by-election section.

  16. The Guardian is really putting the boot into Johnson in tomorrows edition. It’s very narrow partisan stuff, very offputting in a supposedly intellectual publication.

  17. I bet the Guardian’s hatchet job won’t be anything like as effective as Simon Heffer’s job in the DT yesterday. Bet that’s lost Boris a couple of thousand votes.

  18. Where is the last YouGov poll for the Mayoral election?