Cameron set to win

There is what really amounts to a Conservative leadership exit poll in tomorrow’s Telegraph. It was conducted between Thursday and Friday and over 80% of Tory members polled told YouGov they had already voted – the actual turnout may well be lower than this since CCO’s turnout figures won’t take into account situations like members who died (i.e. on CCOs turnout figures they’ll count as a member who didn’t return a ballot paper, however dead people are very unlikely to fill in YouGov surveys saying they didn’t vote) and ballots lost in the post.

The figures for members who have voted are David Cameron 67%, David Davis 33% – unchanged from the last YouGov poll of Conservative party members. Taking those people who told YouGov they were still intending to vote makes no significant difference. Cameron led in every single demographic split, though his lead was greatest amongst younger members.

YouGov’s poll of the last Conservative leadership contest was precisely correct. This one won’t necessarily be as bang on as that in 2001, a poll of 661 party members has a margin of error of about 4%, so we could be looking at actual splits between 63/37 to 71/29, but either way, Cameron has won the election and is going to be the next Tory leader.

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