There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

YouGov and Opinium both have Labour clearly ahead (in Opinium’s case that’s confirming the lead in their previous poll; for YouGov it’s the first Labour lead since the election. They come after a ComRes poll last week showing the parties equal and an Ipsos MORI poll that also had a five point lead. While there will always be some volatility in individual polls, looking at the average across all of the polling companies it now looks as if Labour have moved into a small lead.

Back in the summer the Conservatives had a consistent lead averaging around five or six points – since then Labour have been chipping away at it. The most obvious explanation is the generally negative perception of the government’s handling of Corona and Boris Johnson’s leadership, married to the generally positive public attitude towards Keir Starmer.

Despite the timing I would be cautious about reading too much into the impact of Labour’s internal battle and the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn – while the polling certainly suggested that it had boosted perceptions of Keir Starmer, that increase was largely among Tory voters. In reality, most of the daily soap opera of politics doesn’t have a noticeable impact on voting intentions (especially if it is so rapidly pushed off the front pages by events across the Atlantic) – my guess is that this is more just the continuation of a trend that has been apparent for months, which happened to reach the crossover point in this past fortnight.

Does it matter? In a predictive sense of course not – there are years until MPs have to face the electorate. In terms of it’s impact on politics? Of course – it strengthens Keir Starmer’s hand in internal party fights if he is the man who put Labour back ahead. Equally, it weakens Boris Johnson if he is no longer seen as a popular election winner, something that was once his main selling point to the Tory party.


4,183 Responses to “Labour moves ahead in the opinion polls”

1 79 80 81 82 83 84
  1. CHARLES.

    Do you discount the possibility of UK voters EVER electing a government with your “values” ?.

  2. In today’s completely unenforceable covid restrictions laws.

    “People in Wales to be banned from visiting high-Covid areas in the rest of UK”

    Given that people’s movements aren’t traced , how the hell would such a move be policed without utterly disproportionate use of resources.

    Answer it won’t be and can’t be.

    Irrespective of if it makes epidemiological sense or not there’s no point in making something illegal when you don’t know if the “crime” has been committed without someone voluntarily telling you that they’ve done it.

    Let’s be a bit more adult shall we and ask people not to travel to an area with high infections not pretend you can force them not to.

  3. @TW

    ‘“Its consultation will also look at further elements of animal welfare in transport”

    Yes, well there has been a ‘consultation’ for more than 20 years on whether to fully investigate the British State’s involvement in the murder of Pat Finucane.

    The British State murder it’s own citizens? Never!

  4. @SOMERJOHN

    Yes, the figures were from the HoC research report.

    They are the right figures and certainly if Glyn Davies was still the Montgomeryshire MP, we’d have heard more on this.

    It does indicate a Conservative party that is putting animal welfare first. Personally I’m supportive, but it has serious consequences for upland farmers. Probably help the rewilding and tree planting agenda. Growing trees under subsidy will probably be more profitable than rearing sheep.

  5. “and the EU definition of a banana took 20,000 words”

    It was cabbages, and it doesn’t of course. That particular myth first surfaced as a fabricated critique of the US gov in ww2. The same sheep like repetition happened then as well, just easier with modern media.

    If we’re being reminded of urban myths though I can’t help but be reminded of the quote einstein never said about insanity. People keep voting for simple fantasies of ‘getting stuff done’ and annoyed when it doesn’t transpire and solve all the perceived ills of the world. Not entirely sure why people are getting their hopes up this time

  6. @Colin

    Not sure I like the double quotes round values. I was taught that these were ‘scare quotes’ and implied my values are not values at all!

    To answer your question, I doubt if any government will ever represent my views exactly any more than they are likely to represent yours or those of TOH. A problem on UKPR is that most of feel compelled to support our own side even when we suspect they have got things a bit wrong.

    What I think people are having to struggle with is the role of the nation state in their affairs. Covid, I think, has shown that when push comes to shove there is actually no alternative to massive state intervention. By contrast, the push towards public austerity and the privatisation of public services was in a way a punishment for sin and the failings of some public services, left wing politicians, and unions in the run up to Thatcher and beyond. Blair, I think, inherited the distrust to which this gave rise, And now we are suffering again from the consequences of relying on the likes of SERCO and hollowing out our public health services. On these matters I don’t expect any government to ‘get it right’ but I am hopeful that one will be elected that gets it more right than at present.

  7. @Steve – “In today’s completely unenforceable covid restrictions laws.

    “People in Wales to be banned from visiting high-Covid areas in the rest of UK” ”

    This may appeal to your former law and order persona, but I’ve just written to Spaffer about this very issue.

    “Dear Spaffer”, I said. “This business of people from one tier nipping over to another tier for a Scotch egg just won’t do – but don’t worry, because I have a cunning plan.

    “All you need to do is pass an emergency law that requires everyone in public to be face painted according to their tier. Keep it to a simple Red/Amber/Green traffic light system (you know – like the ones on the Brexit preparedness briefings you can’t be @rsed to read). Green for tier 1, amber for 2 etc.

    “All the police then need to do is round up all the reds in a green area and bingo, you can pay off the national debt with the fines.

    “This is so simple, even your lot could handle it? Just don’t put Grayling on the case. Anyone but him. Even Hancock might understand this one.

    Yours,

    Alec”

  8. Cook it at home or see it in your local gastropub[1] from next year…

    https://www.olivemagazine.com/recipes/whole-roasted-megrim-sole-with-caper-parsley-butter/

    Yum! New Year’s resolution for 2021. Buy British. Nouvelle cuisine, try something novel.

    [1] Added bonus for pub owners or those on a budget is that it’s as cheap as chips but folks will think it’s ‘fancy’, it even sounds a bit exotic. I’d serve it with creamy mash and local seasonal veg rather than chips and mushy peas tho. £16.95 in pubs in the home counties so I hear but yet to see it in local Tescos.. yet.

  9. Beef liver is good source of Vit.D ;)

  10. @ Peter Cairns

    True re internal animal movements but I guess we could think about doing that as well?

    Not sure the scale of the issue as to how far most animals would travel- certainly doesn’t seem appropriate for them driving down motorways.

  11. @Shevii – animals can travel long distances.

    We found this out during foot and mouth, when a local outbreak was found to have dispersed to multiple regions after a big market in Carlisle within hours.

    Had live animal movements been restricted to a few tens of miles, or better still, contained within a single geographical region prior to a quarantine period, the disease would have been containable.

  12. As far as I can gather, the export ban affects only England Wales.

    Not sure about NI Ulster and implications for Scottish and Eire exports through England and Wales via Dover.

    A lot of these exports end up beyond the EU as far as Middle East etc.

  13. Charles

    Thanks

    @”Not sure I like the double quotes round values. I was taught that these were ‘scare quotes’ and implied my values are not values at all!”

    I don’t understand what that means. My intent was to indicate the values which you specified as yours in the post to which I responded. To ensure no doubts about which “values”.

    In that post you wrote ” I suspect my views accord more with the EU than the government.” as a reason to remain a member of EU.

    So the implication was that eitjher this government or one like it would be in power in perpetuity in UK.

    Hence my question. You have answered by saying @” I doubt if any government will ever represent my views exactly any more than they are likely to represent yours or those of TOH.”

    Which of course is usually true in a representative democracy . So I wonder even more why you think that membership of the EU guarantees a government with “your values” in UK?. Perhaps you think of it as a backstop , overiding the worst excesses?. Is that how you see the EU?

    Re you @”the push towards public austerity and the privatisation of public services was in a way a punishment for sin and the failings of some public services,”

    What makes you say that? Did you not believe that Osborne cut spending to reduce the deficit?. I dont ask if you thought that the right option-I guess you didnt. But to believe that he did it as a “punishment” is bizarre to me. A new concept I have not read before.

    RE @”when push comes to shove there is actually no alternative to massive state intervention”

    Your phrase “when push comes to shove” implies a meaning of-at times of crisis or fundamental change.

    If that is your meaning can you say in what respect this government has not responded with “massive state intervention” ? I would have thought that it is manifest.

    As to the future -post pandemic- do you detect no indicators from this PM that he wants significant State Intervention in the regional economies?

    Your post gives me the impression of someone living in the memory of a past which you disliked , not having noticed that it has changed beyond recognition -in the direction you seek.

  14. @alec (and others)

    “Behavioural change in response to pandemics is something that has been noted for centuries. Leper colonies, voluntary isolation (Eyam in the Black Death) flight from urban areas, etc etc.
    Humans always respond to identified epidemics and adapt behaviour, whether effectively or not.”

    If people are interested in the history of epidemics and western society this Open Yale lecture series is excellent:

    https://oyc.yale.edu/NODE/156

    There is no need to take the mid term or final exams!

  15. @ COLIN – No need for humility when you can play the victim card

    “Germany is victim of early COVID-19 success, RKI chief says”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-rki/germany-is-victim-of-early-covid-19-success-rki-chief-says-idUKKBN28D1FD

    ‘prevention paradox’?!?

  16. Does it mean horses, racing or otherwise and breeding stock of all types can’t be exported?

  17. @ SHEVII (2:47pm) – We are.

    UK was also one of the first to ban whaling and whale products back in 1973/86 although for folks worried about how they’ll get two Wales in a car then you can still use the M4 – and you don’t even have to pay a toll anymore, although the pubs will all be closed again by the weekend :(

  18. TW

    I think he is spot on.

    But Nabarro told us all how Europe failed , last month.

    Reported in Germany by DW as follows :-

    “In Asia, meanwhile, the numbers are relatively low because “people are fully engaged, they take on behaviors that make it difficult for the virus,” said Nabarro.
    “They keep their distance, wear masks, isolate when they’re sick, wash hands and surfaces. They protect the most endangered groups.”

    Nabarro also said Asia did not relax restrictions prematurely. “You must wait until case numbers are low and stay low,” he said. “Europe’s reaction was incomplete.”

    It is the way we live. Valuing our “freedoms”-ie My freedoms-not Yours. Failing to accept personal responsibility for the infection and death of others. Old people die anyway.

    It has been a disaster of our own making.

    And if you want to see it writ large-watch CNN , where the Land of The Free is walking straight into an apocalypse

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-who-warns-of-covid-19-third-wave-says-europe-failed-to-learn-from-asia/a-55690325

  19. Other great news from the ban on live animal transport.

    Trump will not be allowed into England or Wales as the ban will also cover ‘Orang-u-tans’ ;)

    Scot.gov might want to copy CON HMG to ensure he’s also banned from visiting his golf courses in Scotland.

  20. TW

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/18/why-united-states-cant-defeat-coronavirus-covid/

    In this quote from the above , I believe you can change “American/s” to “European/s” & it is still a true statement .

    “But another factor contributing to national denialism may be the sheer prosperity and safety of modern American life. Americans are simply not used to the idea that what’s happening on the news might change their daily life. In countries where a political or natural disaster radically altered life within living memory, such as China or Vietnam, people were psychologically prepared for the impact of the coronavirus—for the idea that today’s headlines might mean your life will be different tomorrow.”

  21. Alec

    Failing Grayling would use invisible ink.

  22. @ COLIN – There are certainly cultural differences between ‘East and West’ countries and it’s not just about one’s own life but the ‘individualism – collectivism’ differences

    https://www.hofstede-insights.com/product/compare-countries/

    Also the ‘libertarian v autocracy’ approach of govts (eg in China, S.Korea, etc you have to have the ‘app’ and you will be quarantined which actually means you’ve had more ‘freedom’ versus the ‘West’ where we’ll shut down the economy and lockdown people but only ‘request’ folks download app and self-isolate if asked to – what one might call the ‘libertarian paradox’ :<

  23. TW.

    Agreed.

    Thanks for that link. Will have a play.

  24. I’ve seen several reports on how unsure and unprepared companies that move food from GB to NI are for the complications post Jan 1st, to the extent that 40% of food and drink suppliers will stop trade to NI.

    That raises the possibility of shortages in NI. But what puzzles me is that none of these stories consider what I’d have thought is the likely consequence. The obvious thing for food retailers and processors in NI to do is, surely, to switch suppliers to the RoI? Goods will come in from there free of cross-border hassle, as before.

    People might have to get used to some different brands, and supermarkets might have re-source their own-brand goods and rethink their logistics, but there should be some offsetting cost reductions from the elimination of ferry costs.

    I don’t think this will be particularly significant in economic terms – certainly not to GB – but I wonder if the psychological impact might be considerable in NI. For unionists, it might seem an uncomfortably real-world severing of links with the mother country. I don’t know NI well enough to do anything more than speculate.

  25. YG article and poll on vaccine prioritisation. Pretty close to the stated ‘plan’ but with extra categories (eg premier league footballers are last, even below politicians)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/12/03/who-should-be-prioritised-covid-vaccine

    They do include police, teachers and transport workers and I’d agree that they should be placed on the ‘list’. Supermarket and other ‘essential’ workers as well perhaps? If we obtain higher confidence on a highish % of sterlisation benefit then I’d ‘nudge up’ folks in ‘high contact’ jobs – especially the ones they cover in the poll.

    Some of the prioritisation might juggle around due to logistic issues (see earlier post on split of #1 and #2 into a and b) and I’m certainly not going to adopt an ‘armchair expert’ on the issue

    It is good to see public broadly agrees with the priority list – that will ‘help’ will uptake and hopefully folks being ‘patient’ as, on this issue at least, HMG have a ‘plan’ and folks approve of it.

  26. And today’s jingoistic tw*t award goes to Gavin Williamson.

    Step up Gavin and collect your prize of a all brexitanian made suppository

  27. @Somerjohn – from the BBC NI Economics and Business correspondent –

    “Logistics UK’s @Freight_NI
    tells the NI Economic Conference that we expect announcements shortly from supermarkets that they’ll shift production of a proportion of some own brand goods to Ireland to enhance island-of-Ireland supply chains/ mitigate sea border issues.”

    It’s called ‘re-shoring’.

    :)

  28. Reports that the UK has at last recognised reality and has made a significant move on LPF provisions.

    That’s interesting, because the Sun has just done this – https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1334498818180648960/photo/1

    It looks like the optics of the deal are being prepared for the British public. Interesting that the Sun is saying ‘it must be fish’. Nothing on states aid, LPF, enforcement etc etc.

    Has the cave in started?

  29. @ Hireton 3.03pm

    [email protected] [email protected] 1347-1351.
    Eyam` s [email protected] 1666.

  30. I got moderated on an extra sentence about the alarming increase in Covid cases on Deeside.

    Strange.

    Hence my mis-spelt words, in comment on Hireton

  31. Reports that deaths from Alzheimer’s have dropped dramatically this year.
    Given that around a third of deaths in care homes are of individuals who sadly have dementia it perhaps indicates that the excess deaths figure for the year may well not be as high as anticipated.
    If you die from covid19 then you can’t die from something else.
    Having had direct experience of those suffering with advanced dementia I think it’s safe to say which might be the less distressing way to go for the victims and their families.

  32. So shops reopened yesterday and a large proportion of our Tier 3 villagers went off shopping in Tier 2 Nantwich, across the border in Cheshire.

    And this lunchtime the Chair of the Cheshire village WI, to which Mrs SDA belongs, knocked at our front door to deliver a Christmas goodybag which her WI is giving to all members. Mrs SDA pointed out to her that she lived in Tier 2 and we are in Tier 3 and her response was that she never thought about that.

    Doh!

  33. quick thought about covid fatality rates, and those who once said that covid is no more lethal than ‘flu.

    Seasonal flu normally has an IFR of around 0.1%.

    We’ve had nearly 60,000 confirmed covid deaths. As a proportion of the UK population, that’s 0.1%, rounded.

    So if we assumed that 100% of the population has contracted covid, that would mean that it is as lethal as flu.

    But we all know that we are nowhere near 100% infection.

    Another myth thankfully put to bed by the numbers.

  34. Alec: It’s called ‘re-shoring’.

    Good spot! It seems the obvious thing to do.

    I find trying to understand and snticipate the fallout from brexit really fascinating. It’ll be the biggest, fastest, most far-reaching shock to the UK economy that any of us are likely to see in our lifetimes. A real-time experiment in economics that will be played out in front of our eyes, with political and social consequences that are impossible to anticipate.

    Which may be just the scenario Cummings was hoping to produce. Having lit the blue touch paper and ensured it was smouldering along nicely, he’s retired to a safe distance to enjoy the show.

  35. Alec

    It’s not totally clear what proportion of the UK population has had Covid, but the figures released by the ONS towards the end of the first wave were around 7%.

    It seems likely that this is now 10-12% or so – in which case the IFR in the UK would be a little under 1%.

  36. @Colin

    I need to be careful when writing to you. Points where we agree, easily get seen as points of disagreement.

    The distinction between (say) ‘validity’ and “validity” is (to me) the one between the validity someone talked about and so-called validity, i.e something that is not valid at all. Most people don’t make this distinction and there was no reason to suppose you do. i was trying to share a joke.

    On your second point, all treaties reduce sovereignty in some respects. An American style treaty might require us to open parts of the NHS to private competition, allow Philip Morris to sue us for putting smoking warnings on our cigarette packets, accept their welfare standards for our animals and so on. Post the EU we are not going to be in a strong negotiating position with potential partners and I think that the ‘moral hazards’ (a term we may not use in the same way!) of our past deal with the EU are less than those of the deals we may have little choice but to accept.

    I don’t believe that Osborne’s austerity was solely motivated by beliefs about the public sector. I do, however, think that he wanted a ‘smaller state’ and that he saw an opportunity for getting it. Hence the balance he chose between raising taxes and cutting services.

    Cutting services was made easier by the distrust of public services that began under Thatcher and continued under Blair. My use of the phrase ‘punishment for sin’ was not intended to imply that the government was setting out to punish anybody but rather that at the time Thatcher entered power things had genuinely being going wrong in local government and we should acknowledge that, I similarly tend to regard both Trump and Brexit as the wrong response to genuine problems that need to be addressed.
    =======================================================
    ‘Your phrase “when push comes to shove” implies a meaning of-at times of crisis or fundamental change.

    If that is your meaning can you say in what respect this government has not responded with “massive state intervention” ? I would have thought that it is manifest’
    =======================================================
    i agree it is manifest. We might argue about the way it is done but there is no doubt that a conservative government has responded to a public crisis with a massive and very expensive state intervention. In my view they had no alternative and in essence they did the right thing. I only wish they had done it more efficiently and the reason for their incompetence was partly austerity and its effect local public health provision.
    ======================================================

    ‘As to the future -post pandemic- do you detect no indicators from this PM that he wants significant State Intervention in the regional economies?

    Your post gives me the impression of someone living in the memory of a past which you disliked , not having noticed that it has changed beyond recognition -in the direction you seek’
    ======================================================

    I agree. I think that insofar as he has principles Boris Johnson would espouse the ‘one nation conservatism’ to which I was exposed when growing up. My difficulty is that I don’t think that he has worked through coherent policy on anything – even Brexit – so although I think the pendulum may be swinging back towards a recognition of the value of the state, I don’t think anyone and particularly not Boris have a clear idea of what this should mean.

  37. Somerjohn – 5.17

    “It’ll be the biggest, fastest, most far-reaching shock to the UK economy that any of us are likely to see in our lifetimes.”

    Really? Some of us still remember 1980, when Margaret Thatcher’s economic policies started to take hold. I spent the spring of that year (four months) in Germany and came home to a country I didn’t recognise. My parents were living near Chester back then, and tens of thousands lost good jobs in the Borth West of England because of Thatcher’s inability to see that ‘market forces’ are all very well, but if you’re the only govenment enforcing them overnight then your industrial base collapses.

    Will the new Brexit year do something similar, and on a wider basis? Perhaps the South the of England will experience something of what others suffered forty years ago. We shall see.

  38. An examle of how small countries can sometimes be more effectove – https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

  39. North West. Apologies.

  40. CHARLES.

    Thank you. I will use single inverted commas in future.

    I would still like to understand why you think the EU but not a future UK government will guarantee your ‘values’.

  41. Interesting new poll
    Britain Elects Retweeted
    J.L. Partners
    @JLPartnersPolls
    ·
    16m
    NEW: JL Partners poll of 500 voters in 45 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in 2019 (North and Midlands) for
    @Channel4News
    Change w 2019

    CON 41 (-7)
    LAB 47 (+8)
    LDEM 3 (-2)

    On uniform swing, CON lose 36 of the 45 seats.

  42. Link to the tables for the above poll
    https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/red-wall

  43. Some interesting findings in the above about why people are switching, including a lack of faith in the leveling up agenda, Cummings trip to Barnard Castle and the handling of the Coronavirus Virus
    As usual Johnson seems to be a drag on support with Sunak being popular

  44. Neil J,

    Encouraging for Labour but as I have posted before when other polls have suggested Labour better in Tory 2019 gains then across the UK this is not surprising as more first time Tories will be genuine DKs in and saying so in surveys.

    Informs my view why Starmer is right (subject to a surprising detail) to abstain on the trade deal with the EU should it come; it is not as if voting against achieves anything beyond grandstanding. Worse still voting against might get no deal if some enough Tory Spartans did the same.

  45. I should have said Thanks Neil for posting.

  46. @JimJam
    Informs my view why Starmer is right (subject to a surprising detail) to abstain on the trade deal with the EU should it come; it is not as if voting against achieves anything beyond grandstanding. Worse still voting against might get no deal if some enough Tory Spartans did the same.

    Agree

  47. NeilJ

    J.L.Partners poll.

    The only thing interesting in that poll is how it’s got the nerve to call itself a poll in any sense of meaning of the word poll.

    Of course I suspect that the owners of channel 4 tv would consider it a gold standard in polling.

  48. Alec

    Obviously medical intervention will reduce the impact but I seem to recall that Iceland has tested the entire population and overall has produced a current mortality around 0.3% of those testing positive which is of course significantly higher than seasonal flu but around 15 times lower than the 1918-19 pandemic.
    Of course the covid pandemic isn’t over yet.

    To be fair apart from the terminally thick like diaper Don I don’t think anyone with a brain has suggested it’s not more dangerous than flu but the age specificity does mean that for the under 40’s the difference is marginal.

1 79 80 81 82 83 84

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)