There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

YouGov and Opinium both have Labour clearly ahead (in Opinium’s case that’s confirming the lead in their previous poll; for YouGov it’s the first Labour lead since the election. They come after a ComRes poll last week showing the parties equal and an Ipsos MORI poll that also had a five point lead. While there will always be some volatility in individual polls, looking at the average across all of the polling companies it now looks as if Labour have moved into a small lead.

Back in the summer the Conservatives had a consistent lead averaging around five or six points – since then Labour have been chipping away at it. The most obvious explanation is the generally negative perception of the government’s handling of Corona and Boris Johnson’s leadership, married to the generally positive public attitude towards Keir Starmer.

Despite the timing I would be cautious about reading too much into the impact of Labour’s internal battle and the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn – while the polling certainly suggested that it had boosted perceptions of Keir Starmer, that increase was largely among Tory voters. In reality, most of the daily soap opera of politics doesn’t have a noticeable impact on voting intentions (especially if it is so rapidly pushed off the front pages by events across the Atlantic) – my guess is that this is more just the continuation of a trend that has been apparent for months, which happened to reach the crossover point in this past fortnight.

Does it matter? In a predictive sense of course not – there are years until MPs have to face the electorate. In terms of it’s impact on politics? Of course – it strengthens Keir Starmer’s hand in internal party fights if he is the man who put Labour back ahead. Equally, it weakens Boris Johnson if he is no longer seen as a popular election winner, something that was once his main selling point to the Tory party.


4,182 Responses to “Labour moves ahead in the opinion polls”

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  1. oh Kier Starmer…

  2. Not seen that headline for a while….

  3. TW

    copied from previous thread…….it does conclude with thoughts of the battle with KS. :-)

    TW

    THanks.

    I’m not an expert on UK Gilt yields but hasnt the 2020 fall been from a flight to safety? What happened to equity prices last spring?

    And demand can’t be infinitely flexible if , as Bailey said, BoE had to save Sunak’s Pandemic response emergency funding from a market freeze up. last April..

    There is a lot of interesting stuff on the prospects for Public Finances ST Times today.

    The self imposed BoE limit on QE is again quoted as leaving maybe £100 headroom. So essentially BoE can soak up the deficit funding this year , which will be mostly pandemic response, and then either they have to increase their limit of proportion held-or Sunak is again exposed to real market sentiment for the Levelling Up funding. ( not to mention the health care & social care spending emerging from pandemic lessons).

    So I return to a scenario in which just as BJ gets started on spending money for his social & economic plans , he loses the zero borrowing cost & buyer of last resort ( only resort last April !!) provided by QE .

    And this against a background of 100% X GDP Debt levels. IFS said it will need £43bn pa in tax rises to stabilise at even those altitudes. You dont get that sort of loot unless you tax a lot of people.( and thats before the prospect of real world interest rates appears over the horizon)

    So I can only repeat my previous sentiment that we are moving to an era of tax rises to fund the restructuring of shattered economie & shore up health & social care.

    As I said , this presents the Conservative Party with big problems-both internally & in a bidding war for votes with the Labour Party. How do the Tories cope with being just another tax & spend option for voters?. What distinguishes them from the people who usually offer that stuff , the Labour Party ?

    As an aside I am shocked at the vitriol on almost every page of ST Business Section addressed to this Government. And this doesn’t just emanate from critics of Lockdown 2 . There is a 2 page piece on the relationship between “wealth creators” and BJ & co. Its not a comfortable read.

    And there is B Day to come And then Jo Biden.

    !!

  4. The tendency of trends in UK and US politics to be linked is easy to overstate, but nevertheless I wonder if Biden’s victory will have an effect on this side of the Atlantic.

    The sweeping from power of one silly-haired populist may not in itself affect VI over here, but the spectacle of a disgraced, discredited and boorishly sulking lame duck thrashing around, combined with talk of a new start and a better, fairer, more inclusive way of running things, might.

  5. ‘So I can only repeat my previous sentiment that we are moving to an era of tax rises to fund the restructuring of shattered economie & shore up health & social care.’

    Inflation will come in a few years as well which will ‘diminish’ the impact of the debt. The Magic Money Tree / Modern Money Theory may be correct of course , if so then the debt is not a problem

    The Conservative Party has lost the ‘economic credibility crown’ with its Covid responses and Brexit and will take a longtime to get it back, if ever. We now have two spend parties…

  6. TobyEbert

    “Yes, they could have done much better, especially in tackling inequality, but they have achievements to their name which CON would never have even thought of.”

    ————

    You are telling yourself they didn’t make things worse, you just think they could have done more economically. You said before that the poverty indicators mean it wasn’t too bad.

    But the poverty indicators don’t capture what really happened. Under New Labour worsened dramatically, notably with utilities and house prices and competition for low-waged jobs from immigration.

    Benefits were used to compensate somewhat, taking the edge off the poverty indicators, but overall, the situation had dramatically worsened.

    Where before you might have been able to survive on a low wage, now you’re dependent on benefits to pay your housing costs. Your low wage lowered further by immigration, you need more benefits.

    Aspiration to own your own home and escape, gone, good pensions, gone, chance of getting to a good school catchment diminished because can’t afford the property, chsnce of a good career, gone, and yiu cant afford to heat your home…

    But little of this is captured in poverty indicators. And this is without considering ATOS, tuition fees etc.

  7. @Jack

    “Inflation will come in a few years as well which will ‘diminish’ the impact of the debt. The Magic Money Tree / Modern Money Theory may be correct of course , if so then the debt is not a problem”

    Forecasts I’ve seen put UK inflation at 1% for next couple of years (to my surprise). More serious might be interest rates (forecasts are higher here than rest of Europe) and growth (less than ROE)

  8. @TobyEbert

    “Blair/Brown: House of Lords reform, Supreme Court, Scots and Welsh devolution, peace in Northern Ireland, Bank of England independence, increased funding for NHS and education, minimum wage, Human Rights Act, Freedom of Information Act, civil partnerships, child poverty reduced, Sure Start, Tax credits”

    ———-

    If you’re a Liberal, then you might be happy with that prospectus.

    Even the NHS and Education funding went hand-in-hand with opening up schools and NHS to more of the private sector… transferring taxpayer funding to the private sector via PFI, opening schools up to the private sector etc.

  9. One key message from Anthony as I interpret his piece is beware overlaying your favourite theory for cause and effect on correlation; very tempting when one feels strongly about the specific cause and hope others feel the same way affecting perhaps their VI choices.

  10. Somerjohn.

    Nobody with any sense can claim Trump has been swept from power.
    Given the size of the voting population it’s been a relatively close run election with almost half the electorate voting for Trump.
    He has been replaced by the candidate I voted for Biden but only because he wasn’t Trump. The likelihood of Biden bringing the country together is remote just like the U.K. over brexit ,this is a divided country and old sleepy joe is not about to change that regardless of his fine words.
    We can only hope that the Republicans don’t retain control of the senate or the Democrats are going to find it difficult to pass through any major reforms and given Biden will be 82 in four years time it’s unlikely he will run again which starts the two parties equal and I would not be surprised to see Trump or a family member run again in 2024.

  11. A very sensible analysis of what it all means for the UK – https://bfpg.co.uk/2020/11/biden-victory-uk/

    Better than having Trump there, but no sudden rush of closeness.

    To my mind, for more relevant to UK prospects than who sits in the White House is the small matter of what our foreign policy objectives are.

    Largely because of Brexit, and also because of the lack of any real clue about an overall long term strategy within No 10 apart from being in political campaign mode, we don’t really seem to have a foreign policy.

    We have the slightly bizarre ambition of becoming a Pacific Rim nation, via the CTPPA, which is probably about as close as we currently have to a working foreign policy plan, but we aren’t ever going to up sticks and live in the Pacific region.

    Our long held ‘Transatlantic Bridge’ idea has held pretty much unchanged since WW2, and although it was grossly overstated at times (like, the Americans really did talk to the French and German governments without us needing to interpret) there was no question that the US wanted the UK to play a role within the EU.

    That key global function has now disappeared, and with it, a significant source of UK influence. It seems abundantly clear that Biden will now be more engaged with European capitals and will have less interest in London, purely because the UK can no longer present the Anglo-American view in Brussels. There are already signs that Merkel is trying to push Germany into a new senior transatlantic role.

    The classic quip for seventy years has been that Britain lost an empire in 1945 and is still looking for it’s new role. Pre Brexit, we had a role, but that has now gone, and all we are left with is to dream of being an island in the Pacific.

    Strange times.

  12. @ COLIN – Drop in equity prices did/does create a flight to safety (ie drop in bond yields) and along with cuts in base rates that will certainly impact the front-end of the yield curve (up to 5yrs).

    Lower yields in the back end doesn’t necessarily follow but it creates a “double whammy” for pension funds (lower asset values x higher discounted future liabilities = much larger pension fund deficit (or lower pension pot and annuity rate for those on DC schemes))

    We don’t have the counter factual for what would have happened if BoE hadn’t soaked up all the extra gilt supply but my inspired guess is some additional/excess supply in the long end would see 30yr gilt yields rise and that would be a good thing. Hence I don’t think we want, let alone need, BoE to be quite so involved (eg maybe soak up 75%ish rather than 100%?? or move to yield curve targetting (ie only buy back end if/when yield get to say 2%+)

    Anyway, to HMT and post C19 deficit spending. I fully agree we’ll be in a much worse starting point for post C19 than we’d have hoped to be but then so is rWorld.

    Hence my cautiously optimistic (well, at least “less bad”) hope that the whole World reflates the global economy with a “Green New Deal”. If Bailey, Powell, Kuroda, Lagarde and most finance ministers see the same broad answer to the same shared problems then all the Central Banks will continue to be u!tra accommodative until we’re sure of recovery – but for UK that doesn’t mean BoE have to buy every gilt issued, hopefully they allow the curve to steepen and hence the ‘Paradox of Thrift’ issue can partially reverse.

    Biden wants to Build Back Better and so do we. When he/rWorld hike taxes we can nudge them up just a tad as well but not by as much as US or EU and hence we can become more “attractive”, especially to things like Green tech ;)

    The Times has been increasingly anti-Boris for some time but they did really go for him today.

    Can CON get back to GE’19 manifesto promises? Do CON need to be “under new management”? Well GE is some way off and by then it might be Cameron v Miliband type thing (just either side of Centre and the incumbent wins)? A lot of major events between now and then but

    economically liberal + socially conservative = CON HMG

    By GE’24 we’ll have just got started… mid-term blues can be reversed.

  13. @ COLIN – A couple of pieces on why Biden is best CON HMG and certainly not from sources pro Tory!

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/british-conservatives-come-out-for-biden_uk_5f931225c5b63bc74ba655dd?

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/08/joe-bidens-victory-will-be-a-relief-for-downing-street-13557388/

    Also worth going straight to source of Biden’s campaign (next post) – UK and US under Biden have very similar foreign policy objectives from China, to Iran to NATO to “fair trade”.

  14. Turk – Biden has signalled he will be a one term President.

    Harris should be beware as being the perceived front runner is not always helpful.

  15. Turk.

    Sunday Times has a piece today on the deep divisions in US politics & society.

    Amusingly written by P M O’rourke _ but not very optimistic !

  16. TW.

    Thanks. Let’s hope BJ can make a contact.

  17. @TobyEbert

    To summarise… old-style liberalism, where you let the market rip, fell out of favour in the Victorian period, when, despite being the workshop of the world, a quarter remained in poverty.

    The consequent rise in appeal of socialism forced a reappraisal, and the new approach to liberalism was: maintain the inequality, but take the edge off, via welfare benefits.

    This still proved insufficient, so postwar, the more state-socialist approach, was to actively bear down on the inequalities directly.

    Force house prices and costs down with rent controls, lots of house-building etc… force utility bills down via nationalisations, remove the dependence on benefits by creating proper jobs.

    Then governments post-oil crisis unwound this and replaced it with the more liberal situation where opportunities for owning property, having proper jobs etc. are replaced by insecure and expensive renting, and zero hours jobs and a dependence on benefits, with much less chance to escape via good career, owning your own home, good pension, the ability to have enough disposable income to save etc.

    This possibly goes beyond the liberal approach of maintaining the inequality by using the state to take the edge off via welfare etc…. this went beyond liberal, to where the state actually assists in creating the inequality. The state assists in ramping up house prices via interest rates, taxation policy, QE etc., and in lowering wages via immigration, and favouring the current elderly with triple lock etc.

  18. The Labour Party lost the 2017 GE by a significantly lower margin in popular vote %age terms than Trump is losing this Election.

    My guess is that Biden will be less Partisan than the May (with DUP votes) Government was, partly due to the likely Senate numbers but also as he seem more genuinely bothered about uniting his Country.

  19. @Carfrew
    You keep highlighting immigration as the main cause of suppressed wages, however I believe studies in this area have generally concluded that it has had little influence. I don’t want to get into a fight over this, but I’m concerned you miss the main cause as a result.

    I would suggest a far more potent force suppressing wages has been the emasculation of trade unions and other worker combinations (trade associations etc) – power in the workplace has swung strongly to employers, except in the occasional; case of individual employees who can raise a grievance, with all the accompanying stress involved.

    Trade union pressure used to maintain living standards for whole strata of the workforce, and the removal of that balancing force has allowed the increase in relative returns to capital over labour that we have seen in the last forty years.

    That impact is – I think – less pronounced in, say, France or Germany than the UK because they retain workers’ councils with real power to influence pay across many professions and trades.

    I don;t think that really affects your overall thesis, it’s just a nuance…

    And thanks for using small ‘l’ liberal rather than big ‘L’ – I do appreciate it!

  20. @ COLIN – Lets hope Boris leaves it to Raab to make first and all contacts with Biden administration ;)

  21. TW.

    Even better.!

  22. Jim Jam

    Yes, that’s true. Biden has won by about a 3% margin.

    It’s still a sobering thought that a swing of only 0.4% or 0.5% would have handed the electoral college to Trump, by turning Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona to him.

    In other words, Biden needed to win the popular vote by a little over 2% – or the best part of 3 million votes.

  23. @BFR

    Nick P raised similar concerns in the previous thread. You’re both right, I wasn’t giving an overall analysis of what bears down in wages, I was just highlighting the bits New Lab might be responsible for, since the issue was to what extent Labour might be considered progressive, an idea Toby seems to bring up from time to time and I thought this time I’d comment, since my ideas have been developing on the matter.

    The emasculation of the unions largely occurred before New Lab (though New Lab may have acted to reduce union power within their own party).

    These days, my focus is more on how parties and ideologies get co-opted, whether socialism, liberalism, conservatism etc…. and not sure what’s the best fit ideology for the situation we have been living under recently: state-sponsored inequality.

  24. More somewhat encouraging COVID stats:
    – 20,582 new cases, leaving the seven day average at 22,443 versus 23,016 last Sunday.
    – Patient admission numbers still increasing, but the weekly growth has slowed to 8.5%; the total hospital population appears to be peaking well below the peak reached in the spring.
    – Deaths still increasing but the rate of weekly growth has slowed to 28%

    Small shoots, but it is better than the alternative…

  25. @Carfrew

    I don’t always agree with your posts but state-sponsored inequality sums up perfectly UK PLC.

  26. “state-sponsored inequality”

    It’s true – taxpayer money is targeted at people like Dido harding and Serco and G4S (and previously Carillion) – there isn’t even a real pretence that it is to provide any service any more, it’s just basic embezzlement – and wages are low but board level reward is high but no company ever ever suffers for not doing the bl00dy job they are being paid for

  27. This thread was introduced on the premise that there were three new opinion polls to consider.

    A brief glance at the Scottish crossbreaks doesn’t give much of a coherent picture – other than the SNP being well ahead of the other parties (ranging from 43 to 54%). Conservatives range from 16 to 25; Labour from 13 to 17; LDs from 0 (!) to 6.

    I know that crossbreaks are not a very good guide, given the low numbers involved in all the ‘regions’, but surely you have to question the methodology of any company which cannot find a single Lib Dem in Scotland!

    As for Joe Biden, I think there is only one word which BJ needs to concentrate on: IRELAND. I am sure that Leo Varadkar and Micheàl Martin will be happy to welcome Joe to his mother’s homeland, and help him understand how things stand, before Joe comes to London – after visiting Berlin and Paris first, of course…….

    :-)

  28. Turk: Nobody with any sense can claim Trump has been swept from power.

    My post was about the polling implications in the UK, not a comment on the US election itself.

    My use of ‘swept’ was a reference to the rather undignified kicking-and-screaming, tail-between-the-legs nature of Trump’s departure, not the size of Biden’s winning majority.

  29. Alec 3.29

    Thanks for the link to the BFPG. My own view is that it is it is a trifle over optimistic, but we shall see as the months go by.
    I fear that the UK has done itself so much damage with Brexit that it will not be seen by Biden – or any future US Administration for that matter – as anything like as important as it was just a few years ago. The world is changing all around us – and the UK is no longer sitting at the top table. We voted to walk away from that in 2016.

  30. Early term Blues.

    After GE’10 then within a year CON had gone from their 7.2% lead in GE’10 to being 7%ish behind (ie swing of 14%+)

    Deja vu all over again?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010%E2%80%932012)#2010

    LAB got to a 10% lead in late 2012 (mid-term of HoC 2010-15) yet came back to win GE’15

    Leaders issue? Well from Ipsos Mori long-term trackers Thatcher and her HMG plumbed depths below where Boris and current HMG are now (twice) but she came back to win two additional terms (against Foot and the Kinnock), slides 10 and 11:

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/political-monitor-september-2020-coronavirus-slides.pdf

    Also worth a look is slide 13 that shows Sir Keir is about where Kinnock was at same time into his tenure as LOO.

    I’m not predicting the future or claiming Boris will even be CON leader into GE’24 but early and mid-term Blues are certainly nothing new for CON PMs or HMGs and the “honeymoon” shine for a new LOO might wane.

  31. @John B

    I disagree that the UK is so diminished by Brexit.

    A sensible Brexit and continued access to the single market is of course something we need, but the UK remains a massively important player in terms of security, finance and regional influence.

    The EU can move forward to political and fiscal union, effective implementation of which will actually be beneficial.

    Clearly some of the extremists in the Johnson Government need reining in, and I think some grievance remains with Johnson and his Churchill bust gaffe.

  32. @John B

    I’m sure Joe Biden knows who Timothy Parry was and who supported an unrepentant advocate of his murder.

  33. JIB
    Of course you do.
    Let’s have a look at how our leader is perceived by the incoming Biden administration.

    “So #shapeshiftingcreep is trending on Twitter in the UK, a reference to the British prime minister, Boris Johnson.

    Let me explain.

    There are serious jitters in the UK over the future relationship with Washington, with Johnson seen as Donald Trump’s closest personal transatlantic ally. As the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, reports, some of Biden’s allies – not official aides – have made clear their hostility towards Johnson.

    After Johnson finally congratulated Biden on Saturday evening in a fairly bland statement, Tommy Vietor, a former Obama press aide, launched a brutal takedown on Twitter.

    “This shapeshifting creep weighs in,” Vietor wrote, replying to Johnson’s tweet. “We will never forget your racist comments about Obama and slavish devotion to Trump.”

    The UK prime minister had previously suggested that Barack Obama’s “part-Kenyan” heritage made him remove a bust of Britain’s wartime leader Winston Churchill from the Oval Office out of “dislike of the British empire”.

    Who would have thought past rac!sm directed at the last democratic president and undermining the GFA by breaching international law , with an incoming president of Irish ancestry might have adverse consequences.

    While it’s possible that the Biden administration may differentiate between the UK and it’s village idiot government it’s the village idiot government that will be representing us.

  34. JIB

    “A sensible Brexit and continued access to the single market is of course something we need…”

    Even with No Deal we’d have “access” to the Single Market, as every country on Earth has. But given the UK’s red lines, it it clear (and has been since at least 2017) that we are forgoing the benefits of the Single Market for the sake of not being bound by the ECJ.

  35. @Turk – “Nobody with any sense can claim Trump has been swept from power.”

    Au contraire, it is literally true that Trump has been swept from power. It was a healthy margin, several states flipped, including places like Georgia and (probably) Arizona, which are significant gains.

    The Republicans though, have not been swept from power, and therein l!es the difference. Down ballot Republicans _outperformed_ Trump – that’s what you should be looking at, I think.

    @JIB – “I disagree that the UK is so diminished by Brexit.”

    There is a debate to be had about the extent of this, but there is no doubt – UK influence and power is lessened by Brexit.

    @BFR – re the encouraging direction of travel for covid, while the dates don’t coordinate fully, there has been little comment on the 9.1% fall in testing numbers in the last set of stats, while cases are only down by 2.5% (weekly figures).

  36. Good evening all from a jubilant PSRL – good to see our comrades across the pond literally dancing in the streets.

    On the topic of Johnson and US/UK relations going forward, it may be too early to jump to conclusions as to how it will pan out. Inter personal and close working relations between presidents do not necessarily align to domestic left/right political affiliations. The most famous Irish American president Kennedy, had a very close personal relationship with the patrician Tory Macmillan. Attlee and Truman never got near the level of relationship FDR and and Churchill had. In recent history there is the example of Blair and George W Bush. All of these relationship were forged largely out of circumstance and the ability to work together – so one should not simply discount the possibility that the relationship could be constructive and close.

    Conversely, Biden and the Democrats have the same basic opinion of Boris Johnson and his cabinet as the LOC posters on this site, so it will an uphill struggle for Johnson and his team. Raab did not make a good impression in Washington with Democrats who saw him as a lightweight and was dismissed as coming across like a used car salesman. When Johnson rocks up to meet Biden he wont be seem as a trusted ally like Merkel will, but as the opportunist that he is. That doesn’t mean that Biden wont do business with him, in fact Biden will want to in order to ensure the GFA is kept too. What is does mean is that British influence and access in Washington is likely to be diminished in DC as long as Johnson is PM or until he can prove himself to be both useful and trustful.

  37. Trevor,

    I have been making similar points for a few months.

    Labour will have an average lead of circa 5% next May, maybe, if some events going against the Government, closer to 10%. They will then enjoy average lead of over 10% imo for much of 2022.

    This is the typical trajectory that we see and does not make them favourites in 2024 by a long shot.

    The big difference to then 2011/3 period to now is that Cameron was consistently ahead of Milliband as best PM. What is not different is the Tory lead on economic competence.

  38. When Clinton lost in 2016 it was reported as a disastrous result for her and the Democrats. Well Trump’s defeat will be by a similar margin in seat numbers and is a bigger defeat in sheer voting numbers. So why is this being reported as Trump not being swept from power?

    The Republicans may/may not hang onto overall control of the Senate. We will find that out in January. Even if they do there will be the mid term Senate races in two years time by which point Trump’s appalling handling of Covid 19 will be a matter of public knowledge. He is also likely to be facing numerous law suits. He is likely to remain damaging to the GOP for a number of years.

  39. @JamesE

    I mean continued tariff free access.

    Tit for tat tariffs would be a mutually damaging exercise.

  40. @ JJ – I’d suggest folks consider “what is priced in”. EG Ipsos Mori expectations for economy, etc.

    The bar of public opinion has been set quite low and if/when it turns out not as bad as folks think it will be then maybe a CON bounce (mostly from DKs and whatever Farage have snaffled back). TBC…

    Of course if a/ Boris does capitulate or b/ the low bar is not low enough then maybe a/ Farage peels off more CON VI and/or b/ we see more direct CON’19 to LAB VI

    PS I was guilty of a bit of “mix and match” on the Thatcher era and Cameron era but it’s been a “good” time be a new LOO.

  41. @JIM JAM

    Your point about Harris being the frontrunner if Biden confirms one term is particularly relevant if the Dems do win the Georgia Senate runoffs. As the permanent casting vote in a 50:50 Senate she’d have people on both sides of the aisle with a vested interest in making her very publicly and definitively adjudicate on certain subjects she’d prefer to hedge on.

  42. As far as the US-UK relations concerned it is possible Biden will have a positive impact over Trump. It means international relations will become less strained between EU-US UK-US Uk-EU. Maybe wishful thinking but EU/UK relations could improve with both EU/UK wanting to impress Biden with less squabbling over the brexit deal and move on from it.
    Also any trade deals with the US for UK are likely to be parallel to EU trade deals with president not wanting to put wedge between UK/EU. Also any deals would be easier to sell without the toxic Trump being involved.

  43. Plenty of polling on “Britain’s influence” as well.

    Recent one from Ipsos-Mori

    “Now Britain has left the EU, do you think its influence around the world will increase, will reduce, or will it stay the same?”

    Increase: 23%
    About Same: 18%
    Decrease: 45%
    DK: 14%

    Net Decrease: 22% (ie another “low bar”?)

    Obviously partisan with LAB VI tipping the above so -ve. CON VI are 39,29,20 (net 19 increase).

    The question might be – how will we measure that? Objectively (eg someone pulls COP26 from UK, we’re kicked off UN security council, leave NATO, etc) or the infamous “perception” that we’ll no longer be 1 of 28 in somebody else’s club and that constitutes a “decrease”?

    Some other good questions in that poll

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/britains-future-relationship-with-the-european-union-tables.pdf

  44. John B

    “surely you have to question the methodology of any company which cannot find a single Lib Dem in Scotland!”

    In 12 Opiniums polls, since 1 July, there % scores for SLD have been –

    4, 2, 0, 2,1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1, 1, 0.

    Over the same period, YG’s 14 polls showed –

    5, 2, 8, 5, 5, 4, 4,9, 4, 7, 4, 7, 3, 5.

    In the 8 Full Scottish polls also held since 1 July, SLD %s were –

    11, 11, 6, 10, 4, 8, 6, 8.

    So Opinium’s sample in Scotland is certainly skewed, though that might be down to a geographic one, rather than another methodological aspect – after all, they are part of that foolish practice among pollsters of trying to sample VI over an imaginary GB polity.

  45. @ JJ – I should explain and source the ‘Economic Optimism’ issue.

    Ipsos Mori (slide 18) has Economic Optimism at -56% (close to the lows of Summer 2008)

    CON (opposition at the time with a fairly new, less toxic CON LOO) were 20% ahead of LAB at the time, a swing of 23% from GE’05

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#2008

    Economic optimism bounced back with the Brown-Darling-King bail-out and the CON lead shrank to 7.2% into GE’10 with CON only managing to achieve a coalition govt from what looked like a “slam dunk” outright majority for CON mid-term for Brown.

    Mid term issues can be Red or Blue. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes. There are some similarities between the GR and C19.

    (I appreciate you broadly agree – just putting some actual polling up and historical data up instead of n=1 “opinion”)

  46. Alec

    As ever you put your own spin on things the truth is in the two states you quote it is likely both Georgia and Arizona are so close that a recount in both states is likely, hardly anybody being swept from power.

    People in the U.K. have got to realise that the media call the winners long before the actual votes are counted. In the states ,there is no such thing as a impartial media they control just about everything including proclaiming who the winner is in a Presidential election before the actual voting is finalised.

    Nobody here thinks Trump has been swept from power most of us Democrats realise it was much closer than expected we went from expecting a landslide to crossing our fingers.

    It’s because of that many think Biden will struggle over the next 4 years not only with congress but with a fiercely divided nation personally I don’t think his the man for the job he’s to old why the democrats couldn’t find a younger candidate is beyond me they should have gone with Harris .

  47. As well as their UK poll, Survation also ran a Full Scottish one. The VI was reported in the previous thread, with its expected very large VI for SNP in all 3 categories.

    I don’t think the indy VI was mentioned (change since their January poll) –

    Yes 47.9% (+2.8} : No 39.7% (-5.1) : Undecided (+3.3)

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