I’ve written over the YouGov website about the latest YouGov polling on how the government are handling the corona outbreak here.

Polls across the board show that the public have a generally negative attitude towards how the government are handling the outbreak. The attempt here is to look under the bonnet a bit about why, and which parts. In that sense people seem to rate the government’s handling of the coronavirus in economic terms seems to be a little better than perceptions of how they are combating the virus itself. However, the very lowest results are on perceptions of the level of organisation – just 20% think they appear to be in charge of the situation, only 17% think they have a clear plan.

Full article is here.


1,991 Responses to “What people think the government are getting wrong about the Coronavirus”

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  1. TA-RA!

  2. In Johnson/Cummings world the public and local and devolved
    government is irrelevant to any decision making process, if indeed any such process other than implementing Cummings’s latest brain-fart exists.

    Their only function is to implement the regime diktats

  3. Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    There’s no sign of tightening. Also no sign of widening. We have 34 post-debate polls, and the average change is … 0.1 points toward Trump.

    httpshttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321227450991464452/photo/1://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

  4. Rafael Behr stating the obvious:

    “Rishi Sunak’s ambition is on a collision course with Boris Johnson’s ego”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/27/rishi-sunak-ambition-collision-course-boris-johnson-ego-tory-party

    Rishi also stating the obvious and in doing so continues to build his brand and support base:

    “Rishi Sunak: The north needs a way out of Covid lockdown”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-north-needs-a-way-out-of-covid-lockdown-says-rishi-sunak-qsvwkhqd2

    Maybe Burnham has the “magic bullet” answer tho: shut down Tescos (what is with LAB folks and Tescos?)

  5. TW
    “(what is with LAB folks and Tescos?)”

    A clue might be that the founder of Tesco was Jack Cohen,

  6. @PETE

    Slight tightening according to BBC poll of polls, but STATGEEK says these are not reliable (for reasons which I didn’t understand): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53657174

  7. Great article and polling from AW but it’s worth taking a look at the x-breaks to see how partisan some of the issues are (and why Rishi will wait)

    EG. Q1: “Thinking about how Boris Johnson has responded to
    coronavirus, which of the following comes closest to
    your view?”

    76% of CON’19 think “He has made mistakes, but has done as well as he reasonably could have done given the circumstances”

    Only 15% think he’s done a “bad job” with 7% thinking he done a “good job” (net 8% bad). So vast majority are giving Boris a ‘pass’

    where as for LAB’19 then 77% think “He has done a bad job and made crucial mistakes that could have been avoided”

    with only 21% giving him a pass and only 1% thinking he’s done a good job.

    Sadly I think the question that might turn CON’19 is “Ensuring people who catch the coronavirus receive the best healthcare?”

    Where currently 80% of CON’19 (net 69%) think UKGE have done ‘well”.

    If, more likely when, the staffing issue means NHS is overwhelmed (at least in a regional sense) then folks might ask why we built and then mothballed the Nightingales but didn’t ensure we had the staff capacity to run them along side a “full service” NHS.

    Bottom of p4 in the tabs asks about N-S divide and the regional x-breaks on that are as unsurprising as it gets.

    If there was a clear objective set of criteria on “local lockdown” approach, specifically why/how/when you enter/exit each Tier then it might get more support and that would probably lead to increased compliance and less of view in the North that the South is being treated better than they are.

    PS Rishi might wonder what else he is supposed to have done given the polling on protecting jobs, economy, etc?!?

    PPS I’d like to see some polling questions on whether folks want to see more lockdown measures or stricter enforcement of current measures. Also questions on whether they think stricter measures would work unless/without stricter enforcement.

    Maybe one for Burnham and ask if folks want devolved Mayors to have the legal power to shut down Tesco’s stores ;)

  8. @TW

    ‘folks might ask why we built and then mothballed the Nightingales but didn’t ensure we had the staff capacity to run them along side a “full service” NHS.’

    Folks already know the answer to that: 10 years of CON cuts.

  9. Good Morning all.
    Thank you Anthony for all your work here.

    On TESCO: there was a big controversy about housing in Westminster by a former Tesco luminary.

    TREVOR.
    Thank you for your post at 11.48. BTW our own Tobias has told the local paper that he regrets the way he voted on the ‘Give Us Daily Bread’ motion.

    On the previous thread I saw questions about schools and Cooking etc.
    In Key Stage Three (Years 7-9 or Forms 1-3 in old money) the pupils all ‘do’ a mixture of practical subjects, normally on some sort of carousel.
    ‘Food Technology’ is one of them alongside ‘Resistant Materials’ ‘Textiles’ and Art. Then there is normally a GCSE option block or two for these subjects.
    I have been thinking though (and this might put me in a ‘socially conservative’ bracket) that most children learn how to manage the food budget and cooking for families from their parents in the day in-day-out tasks of ‘just managing on tight budgets in a spirit of self reliance.

    Thus I suspect that the Rashford campaign will not have a massive polling impact, since for a start the very poor voters tend not to vote and the people who just about manage are often socially conservative as well.

  10. @ PETE B – Burnham’s journey to the dark side of Far Left populism continues. He possibly sees a route from “King in the North” to “King of the 4 nations” by filling the leadership void on the Far Left of LAB?

    As we know the Far Left are repulsed by working class folks succeeding and if you’re a jew or an ethnic minority they are even more disgusted.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Cohen_(businessman)

    Burnham is an absolute disgrace. Not only does he take zero responsibility for his failure to use his position and devolved powers to stop C19 getting so out of control in his polity but he is now engaging in Far Left populism.

    For sure Boris and HMG have made mistakes (I’d lean to “bad job” in the YG poll question). Boris should have ended the 10days of Gtr.Manchester pantomime sooner (and still needs to ensure the Tier approach is more “objective”) but Sir Keir needs to fully remove the cancer of the Far Left before they rally behind the ‘King of the North” and LAB slips back into the anti-semitic, anti-achievement ways of Corbyn, Len and co.

    Is LAB “Under New Management” or is it ‘same old, same old’?

  11. I did like this from Anthony’s piece:

    “Even fewer people think the Government’s overall approach has been good – although it is not clear that anyone else could have done better”

    Which sums it up really. This will define this Government, a thumping victory last December is now scant consolation while dealing with the biggest crisis since the end of the war and the economic shock to come.

    @TW

    I do not think Burnham is Corbyn left, far too self aware. He’s playing a careful game and Labour are doing well out of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis – on the side of the person on the street.

  12. TW
    You sometimes talk utter [email protected] the first two thirds of your last effort was devoid of even a passing acquaintance with reality.

  13. @ CL1945 – TBC if the schools meals issue has an impact on polling. Folks who vote LAB will fall for the virtue signalling but TBC on CON VI? I did post the deltapoll findings but obviously folks love “free stuff” and want to help kids and “cake” doesn’t always feed thru to polling.

    I know you teach(ed) at a Private School but have you heard of this UKGE scheme?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thousands-of-children-to-benefit-from-free-meals-and-activities

    Sounds like the way to go to me but we need to get rid of Williamson and bring in someone competent with a “can do” attitude. Sadly Boris favours loyalty above all else so we won’t get someone like Hunt but surely it’s time for a reshuffle and Williamson can move back to the whips office or somewhere his narrow skill set might be of some use and not huge damage?

    There must be someone within CON MP ranks who is better than Williamson. I’d suggest there are at least 300+ who certainly couldn’t be any worse.

  14. @ TE – When were the Nightingales built?

  15. ….brand spanking new hospitals, with not enough people to staff them….hmmm.

  16. TOBYEBERT,

    BBC one has Georgia as 5.2+ Trump
    but
    fivethirtyeight has Georgia as +5 Biden

  17. ComRes’s latest poll shows a reversion to the 3 point Tory lead that has been a feature of their polling throughout the past 2 months

    Con 42% ( – )
    Lab 39% ( +3)
    LibDem 7% ( -1)

    SNP, Green, others 12% combined – for some reason, ComRes do not show these in their published figures.

    https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Savanta-ComRes-VI-28-Oct.pdf

  18. @ JIB – For many politicians the ‘ends’ (their own career ambition) justify the ‘means’ (ie their policies and tactics). LAB, CON, whoever.

    Take Boris’s career. MP in a very safe seat, two terms as a devolved Mayor then an “opportunity” came along.

    Cameron went ‘all in’ for Remain so whoever was the lead figure on Leave had a shot at the throne (altho between Gove and himself they messed it up first time round and we had to endure Mayb0t for a while)

    We know Boris probably doesn’t really believe in Brexit. Beyond wanting tax cuts for the rich I doubt he believes in much. He does however know austerity was toxic and that he needed WWC votes and seats to win GE’19 and become PM (in Autumn’19 he was Remain’s puppet PM, he needed a GE to become King). I doubt he gives a t0ss about WWC, he just wants to be King.

    Now Burnham? I dunno, but if he wants a shot at PM (King of all 7 regions and not just NW) then he’ll need a support base to achieve his personal career ambitions and a lot of time on TV.

    With the Corbyn cohort of MPs sent to the wildnerness of failure (incl. protegies like RLB) then the PLP all love Sir Keir as CON MPs used to love Cameron. However, you’ll know the phrase, when:

    ‘The King is dead, long live the King’

    So for someone with low principles and few beliefs (eg Boris, maybe Burnham?) then it’s just a Game of Thrones and positioning yourself as next in line to become King when you have the opportunity.

    Burnham is already ‘King in the North’ but he can’t make a move on Sir Keir in the same way that Rishi can’t make a move on Boris (JJ quote: the assassin rarely wears the crown)

    Not yet anyway.. until the opportunity to become Chief of one’s Clan and then have a shot at King presents itself then Burnham and Rishi will build their power bases and “bend” their beliefs to do so

    EG I very much doubt Rishi wants to spend anything like the amount he has on C19 but a/ he doesn’t really have a choice, b/ it will help him build his power base. Final quote that will offend the Far Left anti-semites

    “He Who Controls The Money Controls The World”

    PS Jarvis is both an MP and a devolved Mayor. Burnham missed a trick there (put his pride and ego first?) but he’s still young and Sir Keir is unlikey to go unless he has a car crash (and I don’t mean knocking over a cyclist in his SUV) or loses GE’24. Burnham re-elected as ‘King in the North’ and then also takes a very safe seat into GE’24… positioning as “next in line”? Plausible for sure.. I’m not sure how ambitious Burnham really is but I reckon Rishi could run rings round him ;)

  19. Basically that yougov poll is saying the present government in the U.K. has certainly had its problems managing the pandemic but not many people think anybody else would have done any better.

    It’s one of those polls that shows nothing new ,comes to no conclusions and is of little comfort to either of the major parties.

  20. Re: the question on Boris Johnson’s response. This part reads (to me anyway) as potentially a bit of a back-handed compliment.

    ‘he’s done as well as he reasonably could have done’

  21. @ TE – When did Boris become PM? When did C19 first hit? Try

    … Summer’20 wasted not recruiting and upskilling NHS staff to run Nightingales… hmmm

    Ferguson predicted the “wave machine” we are no in so why did Hancock build the Nightingales and then pop them into mothballs over the Summer but neglect to use the Summer to get the staffing issue ready?

    Perhaps see that you have an angle to use here. I’m handing to you on a plate. If you want to apply “sins of the father” you’re only going to preach to the converted.

    Now I hope I’m wrong and we barely need to use the Nightingales but if/when we need to use them extensively then Hancock+ Boris failure to train up the staff during Summer’20 will be an open goal for Sir Keir to shoot at.

    I’ve even given you the ball! Please don’t miss.

  22. JAMES E
    “The Other Howard
    Just highlighting the fact that you’ve made quite a large adjustment to your prediction of the effects of our leaving the EU over the past 3-4 years. Compare and contrast:”

    I did compare and contrast, and I thought considering politically what happened during the years 2017 -2019 I have been remarkably consistent. I made the adjustment to “when we have left” from “while we leave” a long time ago. As far as I can see that is the only adjustment. From experience most forecasters make adjustments as time passes or am I not allowed to? :-)

    Is there a point to this, especially as my main reason for voting to leave was about sovereignty, and as yet we do not know on what final trading basis we have left, and my predictions are based very much on that, as I have pointed out to you a couple of times?

  23. Whilst I welcome the move of Bristol to a higher Tier then Boris+Hancock have made it even more complicated (face slap emoji)

    “Coronavirus: Bristol moves into Tier 1 Plus – but what does that mean?”

    https://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2020-10-28/coronavirus-bristol-moves-into-tier-1-plus-but-what-does-that-mean

    Credit to Marvin Rees for not going through the whole “Pandy-mime” fiasco and putting partisan politics aside to do the right thing for this constituents.

    I’d have preferred clarity on current tiers and more areas, like Bristol, moved to Tier2 but now it’s out there then Tier 1+ should be applied far more widely. We don’t have time for “pilots” and p!ssing around – stop “dither and delay” and get it done.

    Also formalise the Tiers criteria. Jarvis, Khan and now Rees have gone out on a bit of limb backing CON HMG approach but they and other Mayors need clarity on not just how/why they’ve gone into a higher Tier but how/when they can move back to a lower Tier (fairly low move for Bristol but I reckon they’ll formally be in Tier2 soon, although maybe “fear” of that is enough to do the job on ‘adherence’ in Bristol?)

  24. @CHRISLANE

    I support kids being taught to cook. It’s a useful and enjoyable skill. But IMO it’s an RoC displacement activity to think that teaching some kids to cook will by itself solve childhood hunger/poverty.

    Poverty is just not having enough money to live on. So the poor need more money. So probably the rest of us will have to pay more taxes. IMO, it’s worth it.

    TW – sorry, you’ve lost me.

  25. “Whilst I welcome the move of Bristol to a higher Tier then Boris+Hancock have made it even more complicated (face slap emoji)”

    Have they? This tier 1+ thing (which doesn’t actually seem to mean a great deal on the detail) appears to be a relatively local concoction.

  26. The latest Savanta/Comres confirms the recovery of the Tory numbers to 42% which will please CCO after the October 14th poll showing 39%. How well the Tory numbers are holding up seems quite remarkable.

    I think that CHRISLANE1945 got it right the other day with his post on poling when he said that the voters don’t yet think labour fit for Government, while not liking the present Government.

  27. Thanks Anthony. Great to have something from you again.

    So-

    Only around a third of people think the government has handled things well-as for France, Spain, & USA .

    That figures given the numbers. How does the Italian Govt. get 60% ?-and what is the rating in Belgium?

    63% think they havent protected public health well enough-but 50% think they havent protected the economy enough.

    Go figure?

    50% BJ did as well as he reasonable could in the circumstances.

    As good as it gets I reckon !

    20% ish think Starmer would have done better -economy & pandemic.

    Strengthens the 50% opinion above-and maybe informs the overall VI balance.

  28. COLIN

    “As good as it gets I reckon !”

    Indeed I am amazed considering the continual media attacks.

  29. @TW

    I’m sure Burnham has ambitions to be PM one day, but you know what the Labour Party are like. Look how long they tolerated the incompetent Brown, and never made a move on him. Starmer is pretty safe and is pretty untarnished at this time. He will be leading Labour at GE ’24.

    There is lots of other talent in the Labour ranks who will be equally ambitious, Jarvis just one of them.

  30. The Other Howard

    Had to laugh when I read your latest post addressed to me.

    Your “adjustment” has the effect of turning the point when we ‘leave’ the EU from one where you predicted rising investment and GDP growth to one where you now acknowledge economic damage.

    It’s not so much an “adjustment” as a complete volte face.

  31. The Trevor Bot is in full reality denying hate mode today.

    If Burnham is a far left populist where the hell does make Johnson?

  32. TW

    I’m sure it use to take 7yrs to train a doctor and 3yrs to train a nurse. Given that the pandemic is global and therefore demand for trained staff high in all countries, maybe you could tell us what would be the point of needlessly manning Nightingale hospitals in the summer when they weren’t even used at the height of the pandemic.

    Exactly where did you think Handcock was going to get those extra staff to man the Nightingale hospitals anyway apart from what he did do, to appeal for staff that had left to return. And as currently hospital admissions are a fraction of those at the height of the pandemic why would you want to separate out highly qualified staff from normal hospitals were they will be treating not only Covid patients and place the in a Covid only hospitals.

    Nightingale hospitals were built based on the rather wild numbers produced by sage at the start of the pandemic when figures of 250,000 patients were being banded about and the government was indeed following the science. However along with a lot of the hysteria over Covid those figures proved to be dramatically wrong.

    Yes infection rates are rising in the U.K. however the mortality rate is lower and it’s still true to say those most likely to die have a average age above the national average for death in the U.K. and that 95% of people who contract Covid will survive.
    If any of us developed a serious illness in life such as cancer or heart disease those odds of a 95% survival rate would seem pretty good.

  33. The Other Howard

    2 quotes to illustrate what I mean:

    “once we have left I expect investment and GDP growth to boom such that the short term downsides to our economy will be forgotten in very short time. ”TOH 30/3/2017

    “If you check back, or if you ask Charles or Alec you will find that they will confirm that I have always expected an initial economic hit from leaving the EU” TOH 27/10/20

  34. Headline in the Telegraph:

    “The Covid continent: France on the brink of shutdown, rebellion in Italy and lockdown light in Germany”

  35. With regards to school cooking – CDT is not a useful subject where real cooking is taught. There is very little actual cooking done it’s all about planning and fulfilling OFSTED criteria in this subject. For example my son’s GCSE food cooking main subject was that it took a term to teach, plan and show how to cook one cake!

    That wont solve the cooking / food aspect of modern society.

    What is needed is old fashioned Home Economics for 12 months for all children in Years 7 – 9, basic home maintenance for 12 months and 12 months to teach touch-typing as data entry will provide many jobs. But that is too logical so will never happen.

    And there also needs to be a recognition that schools need not provide hot meals at lunch. Perfectly nutritious lunches can be provided by rolls / sandwiches / fruit all of which could easily be made at home.

  36. Another headline…

    “Forecasts of an even deadlier second Covid wave prove that lockdowns do not work”

  37. As Colin points out, the UK public appear to be more dissatisfied with their government’s response to Covid than any other nation with the exception of France. They started off as it happens pretty satisfied and as their high hopes were dashed, they have only to a fairly minimal extent transferred them to Labour. This suggests to me that Boris benefited from a sense that he was not your average politician and therefore did not suffer from lack of trust in politicians in general. Now he has disappointed, it is a hard job to get the trust that effective politicians require.

    Incidentally there is an interesting uptick in the perception of the US government’s handling of Covid from 32 percent approval to 39 percent in the past few days. Is that a reflection of Trump’s recovery or Trump’s support. In my anxious state, I noticed this but hope it has not significance whatsoever.

  38. @TURK

    ‘Exactly where did you think Handcock was going to get those extra staff to man the Nightingale hospitals’.

    Indeed, there were a huge number of unfilled posts in the NHS by 2020 – the result of 10 years of CON cuts.

  39. @ TURK – Firstly do you agree there is no point having 5,000+ extra beds if we don’t have the staff to cope if/when they are filled up? If not, stop reading now.

    So, yes, I fully appreciate it takes many years to train fully qualified nurses and doctors. However, it takes less time to upskill specific part-trained available resource for limited roles.

    Here’s a link from 30Mar:

    “(cabin crew being paid furlough) Support workers will work alongside experienced clinicians, changing beds, doing other non-clinical tasks and helping doctors and nurses working on the wards”

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/airline-cabin-crew-to-join-nhs-nightingale-carers/

    We barely used the Nightingales in Wave1 so didn’t call on that offer. Just think what additional training we could have provided cabin crews, many of whom already had some basic training? Upskilling and x-training current nurses and doctors, etc.

    Instead we paid the vast majority of that resource furlough over the Summer so they could work on their tans and now we’re reopening the Nightingales (NW open from today) we can’t staff them and operate a full service NHS as well (see M.E.N. link from earlier about Gtr.Manchester situation)

    COLIN has recently posted info and I’ve posted NHS hospital activity on bed usage in Spring and through the Summer. I would suspect that along with a load of empty beds we had the trained and experienced clinicians available to help train up the help that we’d probably need in the Autumn – not as fully qualified nurses and doctors but trained up enough to do a lot of the very specific jobs that could really help in times of capacity “surge” (not dissimilar from how the Army runs the TA as first call reserves – giving them some top-up training and money)

    Now, maybe, a lot has been going on being the scenes and we didn’t waste the Summer but as we start to use the Nightingales then we’d bl00dy better well have the staff to cope otherwise LAB will have an open goal to aim at and have a field day with:

    “I Know What You Didn’t do Last Summer”

    PS It does appear some areas did make some use of the Nightingales:

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/09/are-the-nightingale-hospitals-being-used-how-many-built-13395246/

    PPS The other “gap” is the “Covid Wardens”/community police officers (see Tier 1+). Nightclub bouncers is perhaps a bit too obvious and simplistic but again a load of people paid furlough when we could have trained them up for some very specific jobs ensuring C19 rules were being adhered to.

    EG During the Summer I had a week in Westward Ho! The restaurants employed bouncers to ensure folks complied with social distancing – not because it was a legal requirement back then but because the SW took C19 seriously and being a tourist hotspot it wanted to stay open and avoid being a C19 hotspot.

    What did they do in Gtr.Manchester during the Summer? Why did they not get C19 under control? Why is Burnham now trying to blame Tescos?

    I know what Burnham didn’t do last Summer. He didn’t use his devolved powers and position of authority to do what other parts of the country did.

  40. @CHARLES

    Incidentally there is an interesting uptick in the perception of the US government’s handling of Covid from 32 percent approval to 39 percent in the past few days. Is that a reflection of Trump’s recovery or Trump’s support. In my anxious state, I noticed this but hope it has not significance whatsoever.

    On the US covid fromt, the uptick I believe is real because of ywo things. Forstly there is admission that codis is real and the fact that there is now a advocating of wearing a mask. I would expect that would be seen as a positive for some that support Trump and thus a reason to say he is handling it better

    Just like I would argue that if Johnson U turns on FSM he would get an immediate uptick in confidence in policy since those that think that his policy is wrong but otherwise support him would have a reason to feel calmed

    The real problem is like some policies there is no way out that a choice has been made how do reverse it? or perhaps the real question is can you reverse it?

    This can be applied to policies such as Iraq, brexit and COVID

  41. @ JIB – If you read my first reply you’d note I stated Sir Keir is safe until after GE’24 (unless he has a car crash before then)

    If LAB fail to win GE’24 then its common practise for LAB leader to resign and a new one is elected.

    So for now becoming “next in line” is the objective for anyone in the Red Team who wants to be PM one day.

    LAB have a process to elect a new leader. One I’m sure Burnham is aware of given Corbyn, with the backing of Far Left unions and membership, won in 2015.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Labour_Party_leadership_election_(UK)

  42. @COLIN

    63% think they havent protected public health well enough-but 50% think they havent protected the economy enough.

    Go figure?

    In comparison to iraq one could argue that nvading Iraq was a bad idea and that we did not invade iraq such as we get a good outcome

    I would be one of those that would argue that we did not protect the economy well enough because of our response to the CIVID crisis was poor

    You could do a monumental f#@k up and peopel still think well we are where we are. In the same way that we have had a clear majority thinking that brexit was a bad idea for many they are giving a factual analysis of the situation in their view but again does that means that they are full blown rejiners or remainers but that the fact that sh!t happened and they lucked out.

    The point is as with everything we are where we are. In certain situations you can do a reversal of policy and right the viewed wrong (FSM comes to mind) it others it is a clusterbouarch and no matter what you do your original decision makes any other decision moot. The damage is done.

  43. “Had to laugh when I read your latest post addressed to me.
    Your “adjustment” has the effect of turning the point when we ‘leave’ the EU from one where you predicted rising investment and GDP growth to one where you now acknowledge economic damage.

    It’s not so much an “adjustment” as a complete volte face.”

    Well I cannot understand how you arrive at that conclusion.

    “once we have left I expect investment and GDP growth to boom such that the short term downsides to our economy will be forgotten in very short time. ”TOH 30/3/2017”

    Exactly, I was expected a short term economic hit to our economy (short term downsides in the above) once we have left followed by investment and GDP growth We left on the 31st January this year, over the next couple of years I am expecting an economic hit followed by investment and GDP growth hence my view that 2030 would be good time for a review. That depends on how we leave. My forecast was predicated on leaving in line with May’s Brexit rules, we don’t know the outcome of current negotiations yet.

    “If you check back, or if you ask Charles or Alec you will find that they will confirm that I have always expected an initial economic hit from leaving the EU” TOH 27/10/20.

    Again, exactly, try asking CHARLES, he has always acknowledged I have been quite clear n this.

    I asked what you point was, clearly it was to make what I would call a “smart a*se comment like your opening sentence. Well you have clearly got it so wrong I am the one laughing since I rather suspected that was your motivation..

  44. One of the features of the regional based covid response is the way that restrictions are applying to specific areas. The simplicity of an ‘all in this together’ time limited circuit breaker lockdown is obvious, as is the counter that it means some areas with current low levels of case numbers get caught up in the disruption.

    The flip side is the local approach, which introduces a bewildering array of states of alert, with the hoped for gain in a flexible response being alleviating the blanket disruption.

    One of the areas of complexity is the metrics by which areas are placed into restrictions, and this is where I think a lot of the confusion, irritation and potentially loss of support comes in.

    County Durham was placed in what effectively became tier 2 restrictions back on September 18th, when LG Inform confirmed cases were showing a weekly rate of 48/100,000. The restrictions have largely failed, as the area is now at 307 (up to the 22nd) although there has been a slight downturn of late, probably due t the unwinding of a big student spike.

    Today, there is apparently discussion about Bristol going into a newly invented Tier 1+ category, because of rising infections. Bristol is currently running at 322/100,000 (again up to the 22nd), so already just about as high as Durham ever got, but still sitting in the lowest risk category. And this, when Durham was moved into higher restrictions when the rate was less than a sixth of the rate in Bristol now.

    There may be valid reasons why Bristol hasn’t yet moved into higher tiers – perhaps this is a specific outbreak that has now been isolated, but on the raw data, it’s really not that difficult for folks to appreciate that the rapid application of the tiers onto many northern areas a long, long time ago now, does jar somewhat, when a far slacker approach seems to be the norm for other areas.

    This is probably part of an evolving strategy (oops – forget I said ‘strategy’ with this lot…) but it demonstrates how difficult it is to adopt a regional approach and still maintain public acceptance and understanding.

  45. @TREVOR WARNE

    I think you miss the point of the nightingale hospitals, thy were never supposed to be front line ICU style beds. they were for in triage sense for the walking wounded. Those that needed care but were expected to make a full recovery. They still required nursing staff and the problem was that there was not any so they could not take many patients

    https://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/health/nightingale-hospital-does-not-have-enough-staff-report-suggests-1-6622300

    The wasy but was building the hospital the hard task was staffing it. The NHS has gone for an approach that pretty much allows for the growth in patient numbers by essentially posponing other critical care, how long can they keep doing this is one of the issues which we have to contend with.

    I am not against the idea of the nightingale hospitals but I don’t think that there are many people that just need a hospital bed, if they are in hospital they need to be administered therapeutics and the like and that needs qualified staff. Cabin crew would not add value and I suspect the reason why it was never done was because people looked at it and decided that it was better let it slide

    It is the kind of greenlight thinking that should never get out of the room as it were but did

  46. @Charles – some balm for your troubled brow – https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/

    A string of polls in midwest states showing towering Bidden leads, coinciding with record levels of covid cases.

    Individually, the polls would be dismissed as outliers, but with at least one such remarkable poll in each of these states, that may signal something a little more defined.

    And in Texas, nearly as many people have already voted as voted in the entire 2016 election, with several days of extended hours voting still to go. A number of networks are calling Texas a toss up now. If Trump loses there, he’s toast.

  47. Just under 25,000 cases, 1,200 admissions, and 310 deaths.

    Another set of worsening figures.

  48. @ TW

    “If LAB fail to win GE’24 then its common practise for LAB leader to resign and a new one is elected.”

    Common practice for which party?

    There was no such office as Labour Leader until 1921 (until then chair of the Parliamentary group)
    Ramsay McDonald did not resign after losing in 1924, he left the Labour Party to form the National Government whilst Prime Minister;
    Arthur Henderson was, essentially if not in name, a caretaker leader;
    George Lansbury did resign after the 1935 election.
    Clement Atlee was leader for four years after losing the 1951 Election and resigned after the 1955 election;
    Hugh Gateskill after losing in 1959 stayed on until he died;
    Wilson did not resign after losing in 1970, but resigned in office;
    Callaghan and Foot both resigned after 1979 and 1983 but not until some time had passed;
    Kinnock did not resign after the 1987 defeat;
    Blair resigned in office;
    Gordon Brown resigned after an election defeat as did Milliband, but Corbyn did not.
    I detect no pattern!

  49. An interesting poll but surely what was needed was a 4 nations or at least GB nations poll with a properly weighted sample for each one.

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