Two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers. Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday had CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 6% (report here). Opinium in the Observer has CON 39%, LAB 42%, LDEM 5% (report here).

I expect rather more attention will be given to the poll from Opinium as the Labour lead is the first we’ve seen since July 2019. We’ve had a couple of polls showing the main parties neck-and-neck in recent weeks (there was another one yesterday from Redfield & Wilton, showing them both at 40%). Looking across the various polls it is clear that the two main parties were heading towards roughly equal levels of support and, therefore, normal margin of error was going to spit out a Labour lead soon enough.

The question is what impact this starts to have upon the political environment – assuming the pattern continues – voting intention polls this far out have little predictive value (4 years to go!), but do have an influence on how the parties are perceived to be doing by their own supporters, their own MPs and the media. It helps Keir Starmer to be seen as a winner, who has put the Labour party back into the lead. It risks doing the opposite for Boris Johnson, especially given one of his selling points to the Tory party was his popularity with the public.


5,657 Responses to “New voting intention polls from Opinium and Deltapoll”

1 110 111 112 113 114
  1. @ CARFREW – If actual infections were 40k a few weeks back and daily deaths is now average 200 then IFR = 0.5%

    That is a rough rounded number and is irrelevant to how many folks (or % of folks) get C19. If daily infections rise to say 80k we’ll start to see 400 average daily deaths, etc (assuming that IFR is about correct)

    NB I really dislike showing a single IFR as it should be shown by demographic and ideally split out between genuine “community” infections with Care Homes, etc shown separately.

    So unclear why you mention S-usceptibles or why “It’s possible lockdown itself might create some additional susceptibilities?”

    I certainly agree with “the virus is spreading to places that didn’t get it as much last time, I.e. it missed some of the susceptible last time”

    with the obvious places being schools, unis and a lot more workplaces that went into max lockdown in Spring but have stayed open this time.

    London had the earliest, highest and shortest wave1 but other than SW most of England had a comparable Wave1 adjusting for factors that are the same this time (eg due to commuters working from home, socio-economic factors, etc then SE will have a lower ‘R’ than NW ‘ceteris paribus’ on enforced and voluntary social distancing + personal hygiene)

  2. Here’s a list of secessionists for people to scroll through!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession

    Peter.

  3. Well, bad news on Covid from UK and europe generally, but worth noting that India and Brazil are both well on the downward slope, with lowere death rates now than the UK. India in particular is coming out of the epidemic with a relatively small number of deaths (even allowing for under-reporting). Perhaps it has something to do with a population that is young, thin, and spends a lot of time outdoors. But I’ve given up trying to see patterns these days!

  4. @Oldnat

    “Hence, the claim by Westminster that “Holyrood was the strongest devolved Parliament in the world” was totally true – because there were no other “devolved Parliaments”!”

    Other than the Senedd and Stormont.

    #pedant

  5. Looks like Gibraltar has made its own deal with Spain, to keep the border .

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-gibraltar-free-movement-spain-boris-johnson-b1374145.html

    The last remnants of Empire are slipping away.

  6. Statgeek

    I’m afraid you are out-pedanted. At the time of that claim, Wales and NI had Assemblies, not Parliaments.

  7. Interesting to see that voters have already cast over 50% of the total votes counted in the 2016 US election.

  8. @ OLDNAT – Gibraltar. A bilateral side deal according to your link or did you attach the wrong link?

  9. @Oldnat

    I call your pedant, and raise you a hair-splitting quibble. :p

  10. Peter Cairns

    I guess those descriptions could be ascribed to original UKIP.

    As much as I disagree with Scottish/Welsh separatism, I don’t think SNP/Plaid are malign.

  11. Statgeek

    When listening to a Tory politician talking about Scotland, both pedantry and quibbles need to be deployed.

    Their modus operandi is to engage Bardolini’s Law

    https://apoorvupreti.com/brandolinis-law/

    or the Gish Gallop

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

  12. @TW

    “So unclear why you mention S-usceptibles or why “It’s possible lockdown itself might create some additional susceptibilities?””

    ——

    You indicated that you were surprised the IFR hadn’t fallen more. I was just suggesting a couple of reasons how that might happen. E.g. if people become newly susceptible to having a bad Covid experience. If Lockdown means they haven’t had treatments for other things, if people have put on weight etc…

    …Then the death rate might not fall as much.

  13. @Danny

    “But you cannot just let patients pile up in hospital because there is a risk they have become infected. Their personal risk just continues all the time they are there!”

    ——

    Yes, that struck me rather forcefully while in hospital nyself. They are not ideal places to be. They are full of ill people!

  14. @Danny

    “as to your last point, Id say it is obvious there are uninfected people in the north getting it now at a faster rate than in the spring. So there is certainly some reservoir of uninfected which is likely to differ across the country. The silver lining might be if these people are mostly children/students recently released into circulation. So they are unlikely to include many at high risk.”

    ——–

    Yes, it would be useful to map things geographically and in relation to how much infection an area had last time. It’s not just about the number of new infections, but where they occur.

    If we are getting a load of new infecyimdin places already hit hard previously, that’s different from infections in places relatively spared previously.

  15. new infecyimdin places = new infection in places

  16. @Danny

    “What does bother me is the average stay in a care home is only 18 months. So after 18 months, you die. People moving to one are very high risk of death from all causes. This implies there is a pretty quick turnover in such places, and in one year 2/3 of the residents would be new. Assuming they progressively weaken while living there, any surviving since march are now 7 months further into their 18 months life expectancy and so must be more susceptible to any illness now. So the at risk population must have recharged to some extent.

    This latter risk would not have existed had we allowed the epidemic to terminate naturally in the spring, these extra people have been placed at risk by lockdown.”

    ——

    Yes, you have argued before that as time passes, some people’s vulnerability to Covid can increase.

    And yes, as you further point out, delaying the burning out of Covid via Lockdown might leave these new people exposed to Covid.

    But I’m some way off myself being clear that letting Covid rip would solve the problem. We have let the flu rip rather, and even with a vaccine, people still too often die of the flu.

    Different folk bring different persiectives to the table, from herd immunity to splitting the herd, to track and trace, to trying for eradication or elimination, to holding out for a vaccine, to more sophisticated lockdowns etc.

    I’m kind of majoring on reducing the vulnerability.

  17. The Guardian may not be to the taste of all, but this is an excellent analysis of the dilemma facing rishi Sunak in his ambition to succeed Johnson.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/rishi-sunak-s-ambition-is-on-a-collision-course-with-boris-johnson-s-ego/ar-BB1arDcj?ocid=msedgntp

  18. TW

    This is the wrong calculation for the capacity of the NHS as it ignores the constraint that determines the capacity (particular ward, bed number, nurse number, consultant number, etc).

    Then you have the question: can the constraint broken. If yes, then something else becomes the constraint. If no – can it better managed?

    The trouble is the notion of constraint – what is the level?

    I actually don’t think anyone has been bothered looking at it because it is a good excuse for any mistake.

    So, the capacity is defined by the constraint, but nobody is looking at it, instead we have expedition (which means lower efficiency and higher cost).

  19. @Trevs – when you attack someone, accuse them of ly!ng and talking bullsh!t, it’s always best to make sure you actually understand what they have said.

    It’s also important when you quote people, that you don’t cut the quote and miss out important information.

    So, when you take my quote – “case rate has been running at the equivalent of 145/100,000 per week. That’s close to the UK average, and just under half of Newcastle’s current rate”

    and cut out the bit that preceded it – “Over the four days from the 19th – 22nd, while is largely still in the provisional period,…… the case rate has been running at the equivalent of 145/100,000 per week”

    you just end up looking a bit of an angry dick.

    I won’t mind if you want to apologise when you say “So your post was total fabricated BS – something you seem to think folks don’t spot despite the facts being so easy to check”, although I have to admit to some amusement here that you, er, failed to check my facts.

    Thanks for the prediction though. I think the SW looks like an area to watch. Hopefully they can jump on this increase and avoid my fears of a 300/100,000 case load by the first week of November. I’ll be very happy if you are correct and my fears prove unfounded.

  20. Alec,

    “you just end up looking a bit of an angry dick.”

    Surely that hasn’t just dawned on you!

    Peter.

  21. Peter
    I’ve really no time for the concept of nation states they are in general just an artifice to divide people. Further division seems a bit superfluous imo.

    Nothing against those who hold a different opinion.

  22. If this is true, I think the polls might shift a bit. From the Daily T

    The Telegraph
    @Telegraph
    The West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner says officers will enter homes and separate households if necessary

  23. Tonight`s BBC 4 documentary on the lawlessness in much of Highland Scotland for two decades after the Union, is a good predictor for what could well happen after Jan 1st 2021.

    Bandits, rogues, like Rob Roy McGregor were very active, and not controllable by the government. The Scottish people were very hostile especially after Hanoverian George became GB king. The simmering discontent of many clans and Jacobites ended in bad bloodshed in 1745/46. This time it could be Ireland`s turn.

    Neil Oliver may not be ONat`s favourite TV personality, but I thought Andy Twaddle, a good producer, kept him nicely in check.

  24. Davwel

    Probably an error for Sturgeon to drop the Highlands and Moray [1] into Level 1 then – much less those Norsemen in the Northern and Western Isles!

    [1] Moray was one of the counties terrorised by Jamie Macpherson – of rant fame. One of the charges he was hung for was “being an Egyptian”, so Douglas Ross’s main ambition has a long history locally.

  25. JIB,
    “The psychological game is very important in maximising intelligent immunity. Aka don’t bl**dy catch SARS-CoV-2.”

    As I said, I fancy I had it last year. For all i know, I might have had it several times over since with negligible symptoms. The japanese data suggest their population was probably infested with it, but they somehow managed it so very few got severely sick even if they were almost all infected several times over.

    The Trevs,
    ” If actual infections were 40k a few weeks back and daily deaths is now average 200 then IFR = 0.5%”

    No. You made some implicit assumtions. You assumed everyone else was at risk of catching it and had the same risk as those known to be infected.

    Two big confounders we dont know the answer to. If 95% of the population, or 99% pr 99.9% had enough immunity before it arrived here to ensure they do not get a severe case, then the at risk population was only ever 5%, or 1%, or whatever number. None of that prevents an epidemic taking place amongst the 5% or 1% or 0.1% and causing the deaths we have seen. Interspersed with another epidemic amongst the ones who were only ever destined to have a bad cold, ranging down to no symptoms whatever.

    The internatonal deaths rate in different countries is nowhere more than about 0.1% of the total population. So I suggest there is no evidence at all that more than this proportion of the whole population was ever at risk of death.

    From this ceiling, actual deaths have varied depending on how well individual countries have managed treatment and isolaton of the high risk people.

  26. @DANNY

    ?”carfrew, The Japanese study which found half with antibody on the one hand says they did something right to prevent deaths,?but on the other hand all measures they took failed to prevent spread.?What they might have done is encourage low dose spread.”

    ??October 26th, 2020 at 9:48 am

    ——-

    Yes, this is kinda where I stand on it. The low deaths could be due to a variety of things, including better treatment, better shielding, better distancing, less obesity, more vitamin D, more cross-immunity from colds, more TB vaccine etc.

    And the better the protection, the more you can let the virus do its thing.

    I don’t think we are close to that level of protection.

  27. @Danny

    “The karolinska/ Swedish study which reported 30% t cells reactive to covid in old blood had something to say about previous studies having found something depleted but they considered this was in fact part of a operating immune response and they said why. At the time didn’t note the details.”

    October 25th, 2020 at 12:46 pm

    ——

    Ah, that’s useful to know, thanks for the heads-up Danny.

  28. Danny

    ” I fancy I had it last year. For all i know, I might have had it several times over since”

    Supporting evidence for your claim has been published by Imperial College

    “Our analyses … align with the view that there are chronic cognitive consequences of having COVID-19,” the researchers wrote in a report of their findings. “People who had recovered, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits.”

  29. And while we are on the subject, from the Telegraph…

    Exclusive: Second Covid wave forecast to be more deadly than first

    Boris Johnson comes under pressure for new lockdown, with Number?10 expecting lower but longer ‘peak’ in virus deaths

    By
    Laura Donnelly, HEALTH EDITOR and Gordon Rayner, POLITICAL EDITOR

    27 October 2020 • 9:30pm

    “Downing Street is privately working on the assumption that the second wave of coronavirus will be more deadly than the first, with the death toll remaining high throughout the winter.

    An internal analysis of the projected course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring but remaining at that level for weeks or even months.

    It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.

    “It’s going to be worse this time, more deaths,” said one well-placed source. “That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again.””

  30. So theyre suggesting the death rate might be lower, but goes on for longer…

  31. carfrew,
    ” We have let the flu rip rather, and even with a vaccine, people still too often die of the flu.”

    there is no known way to prevent it. We introduced flu vaccines for those most at risk, but they still die. Fewer, but the numbers we have now.

    if you immune system is packing up, a cure which relies upon the abilities of your immune system to stop a virus is ultimately bound to fail.

    Flu vaccine for the elderly is just trying to prod their collapsing immune system back into life a bit. Covid vaccines will have the same problem, ultimately least effective at helping the ones who have or will die from covid.

  32. @Danny

    “there is no known way to prevent it.”

    ——-

    Well, aside from the arguments in fabour of eradication, track and trace etc…

    …then if you’re right, then the critical thing is the level of protection.

    Otherwise the argument becomes about people dying due to lockdown, or due to letting it rip under cibditions of inadequate shielding, protection etc.

    It’s not a great choice. The critical thing for me is to try and make the method of dealing with it more and more irrelevant, by upping the protection and general health more and more.

  33. conditions

  34. @Danny

    “if you immune system is packing up, a cure which relies upon the abilities of your immune system to stop a virus is ultimately bound to fail.

    Flu vaccine for the elderly is just trying to prod their collapsing immune system back into life a bit. Covid vaccines will have the same problem, ultimately least effective at helping the ones who have or will die from covid”.

    ——-

    There is a significant difference between chronological age and how much you have aged physically.

    The more we can get older people healthier, the more we can get close to death rates like Japan, and not just for Covid.

    Additionally, if there are fewer people with health issues requiring screening, it’ll be easier/cheaper to provide shielding.

  35. CL1945

    In 1991 I stayed with a friend in Belfast and the police searched the house at 2:30 in the morning (they searched every house in the street). I am sure it affected voting intentions.

  36. Steve,

    So just exactly how would you organise the world other than people grouping together by choice!

    Peter.

  37. carfrew,
    “The more we can get older people healthier, the more we can get close to death rates like Japan, and not just for Covid.”

    Thats all great for giving people more good years of life. Problem is, if you stave off decline for ten years, it just hits ten years later. ‘More or less’ touched on this, saying similar numbers were dying in deprived and rich areas, just those in the deprived areas were ten years younger (or whatever it was).

    That might be an argument that whetever the japanese got right, it wasnt simply keeping people generally healthier, but something specific helping against covid.

  38. Peter
    I’ve had this conversation before with a fellow SNP contributor.

    I really don’t want to again.It’s such a different world view that there’s little meeting of minds.

    On an world scale it essentially means no borders, no restrictions on movement other than consistent with safety and to prevent criminality. World wide issues should be addressed world wide.
    Locally of course communities and areas should organise to respond to local needs and if this involved communal affiliation that’s fine.

    Now as I don’t expect to become world organiser any time soon and very much doubt that nations and nationalists will see the error of their ways,imo,the best that can be done is the most internationalist approach within the parameters of nation states.
    The European union is an example of such, which is one of the reasons why the parochial English nationalist insistence on leaving it is so dismaying.
    Another would be a beefed up United nations with genuine authority to act pan nationally based on need.

    Dividing existing nation states into smaller and smaller political constructs seems to me of no advantage at all to anyone.

    I fully accept mine is a minority view.

  39. @Danny

    “That might be an argument that whetever the japanese got right, it wasnt simply keeping people generally healthier, but something specific helping against covid.”

    ——-

    Yes, if you keep someone generally healthier, they may have more protection against Covid as a consequence. Whether it’s Vitamin D biasing against cytokine storms, lack of obesity affecting number or activation of ACE2 receptors, more cross-immunity etc.

  40. Fun fact for the day.
    Two weeks of food vouchers for 1.4 million children would cost. the same as a day of” Eat Out to Help Out. ”

    Instead the Spaffer Cummings regime hit upon the alternative.

    “Save a quid and starve a kid”

    I think fundamentally the conscience and decency of the British public is high.
    Shame none of them are in government.

  41. Carfew.
    You may well be right.
    But given that Spain has the highest life expectancy in the world, decent public health services and plenty of vitamin D you might expect a similar result.

    Who the f knows any more.

  42. @Steve

    From the WHO profile…

    “Intercountry comparable overweight and obesity estimates from 2008 (1) show that 62.0% of the adult population (> 20 years old) in Spain were overweight and 26.6% were obese. The prevalence of overweight was higher among men (67.7%) than women (56.6%).”

    Japan in constast has obesity levels of 3%.

    Japan also had the TB vaccination programme.

    It may not just be health, but things like the distancing culture, ventilation culture leading to lower doses. Maybe that needs to be fostered too.

  43. @Steve

    Over 80 percent of COVID-19 patients have vitamin D deficiency, study finds

    Vitamin D deficiency was more prevalent in men
    Date:
    October 27, 2020

    FULL STORY

    “Over 80 percent of 200 COVID-19 patients in a hospital in Spain have vitamin D deficiency, according to a new study published in the Endocrine Society’s Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism.”

  44. @Steve

    Note, that study was in Spain.

  45. @Steve

    So, you can note Spain might have good vitamin D levels, and leave it there. But what matters is the vitamin D levels of those in difficulty with Covid.

    You can note generally good health, but they might stil have notable obesity levels and that might matter for Covid.

    You can note generally good health, but what matters for Covid, might be whether you have cross immunity from a TB vaccine.

    Or maybe a combination of these, plus distancing culture etc.

    Ruling things out on spurious grounds is commonplace. A lot of our experts have been doing it.

  46. @Steve

    Similarly, numerous experts note a decline in antibody levels, and conclude maybe no immunity.

    But they often don’t mention that there’s evidence to suggest very low levels of antibody might still be protective. Or maybe you’ve kept memory cells so you can still reproduce the antibodies quickly. Or maybe you get protection from a different source so antibodies are less important: more NK cells, more T cells, cross immunity from vaccines etc.

    Maybe, as Danny highlighted, the virus is intracellular, tries to hide from antibodies, so they aren’t that important as other defences etc.

  47. Carfew
    Wasn’t ruling out anything.
    As it happens am and always have been a strong proponent for the benefits in relation to improved immune response provided by vitamin D.

    Spain does have an above average level of obesity but it also has the highest life expectancy in the world and has consistently been in the top three for 10 years.

    It seems highly likely that it’s the obesity factor that is so relevant and would go some way to explain the disparity between the rates in the two countries with the highest life expectancies in the world.

  48. Steve,
    “But given that Spain has the highest life expectancy in the world, decent public health services and plenty of vitamin D you might expect a similar result.”

    thats what I mean: In the Uk the rich live ten years longer on average, something like that. They have general and clear health advantages. But it isnt clear this has properly translated into protecton from covid once you allow for poor people dying from covid ten years younger also die from everything else ten years younger.

    The Japanese got something very right specifically about covid. It might be reflected in other difference in what they die from compared to the UK. I remember past health programs discussing rather different patterns of diseases there, and how this has changed as they have become more westernised.

    “Japan in constast has obesity levels of 3%.”

    ‘more or less’ did a comparison with italy based on measured addtional risk due to obesity and said had the Uk had the levels of obesity in italy, we would have expected a few thousand fewer deaths in the UK. Japan sounds rather better yet.

    “Japan also had the TB vaccination programme.”

    Germany has respectably low deaths currently. Not sure if thats a real national immunity score, for example TB vaccine gives a higher proportion safe so the final worst case death toll was always giong to be lower, or whether it was better spread prevention. Here we have the north south divide, where I think people in the north had fewer cases by being isolated, not because they were safer intrinsically, and now they are catching up. I seem to recall there are difference between east and west germany?

    carfrew,
    “Over 80 percent of COVID-19 patients have vitamin D deficiency, study finds”

    But what proportion of the general public also had vitamin D deficiency? (i would not rule out the possibiity it is also 80%, because it is high)

  49. Steve,

    “ I fully accept mine is a minority view.”

    No yours is the majority view, solving global issues together is what international cooperation is about, people organising themselves at a more local level is what nations are.

    The problem is effective action over so many levels on such a large scale with so many divergent views and objectives.

    Nations aren’t the problem they are a symptom of it.

    You seem to think like a bad manager faced with an intractable problem. You think that reorganising management will somehow make the problem solve itself!

    I don’t think creating Scotland as a separate unit in the business is a magic solution to anything, but it will probably just make that bit work a little better by focusing on things It’s good at a bit more.

    That’s a long way from thinking problems will disappear if we have a Corporate culture and everything advocates below that.

    Peter.

1 110 111 112 113 114

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)