YouGov’s latest poll for the Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, GRN 5% – the first time that the Conservatives have lost their lead in a YouGov poll since Boris Johnson became leader. Opinium also put out a poll showing the parties neck-and-neck at the end of August, though there most recent poll has the Conservatives ahead again. Other recent polls have also showed a narrowing – Redfield & Wilton had 2 point Tory lead this week, Survation 2 points and NCPolitics 4 points earlier in September.

To some degree this isn’t really a surprise. The Conservatives no longer have the advantage of a more popular leader, with Keir Starmer consistently getting higher approval ratings than Boris Johnson. The “rally round the flag” factor – the tendency for people to support the government at times of national crisis – has now vanished, and public opinion is increasingly critical of the government’s handling of the corona outbreak. In YouGov’s tracker the proportion of people thinking the government are handling corona well is down to 30% (lower than any of the other countries tracked). The question may perhaps be why the Conservatives aren’t doing worse?

Part of that may be the underlying factor of Brexit. Boris Johnson was elected primarily on a platform of delivering Brexit – it is still seen as one of the most important issues facing the country, and the Conservatives still have a solid lead on delivering it. There is also still a lack of confidence in the Labour party – while Starmer is seen as a potential Prime Minister, people still appear to have very little idea what he stands for (the YouGov poll today contained questions asking what issues people cared about the most, and what issues people think the Labour party and Keir Starmer himself cared about. The latter returned an overwhelming Don’t know). Only 28% of people think that the Labour party looks ready for government, and they have negative trust ratings on issues like the economy, Brexit or defence & security. While Starmer’s leadership has had a good start, the Labour party has a way to go.

Either way, at this stage in a Parliament the importance of less is less predictive (after all, there are probably years to go), and more the impact on party morale, and how the parties are percieved. Remember, one of Boris Johnson’s main selling points to the Conservative party was that he was popular with the public. He was the Tory who could reach parties that other Tories could not. What becomes of him if Labour pull ahead and the Tory party realise that he isn’t popular anymore?


1,317 Responses to “Labour and Conservatives neck-and-neck in latest YouGov poll”

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  1. First?

  2. Polling wise it is interesting times.

    If there were an election tomorrow, Labour would do very well indeed. Of course, there won’t be one.

    The knives are undoubtedly being sharpened for Boris, and I’m afraid he boxed himself in with Brexit. He’s going to need more than a JCB to get him out of the legal hole he’s in. BRINO beckons with a few concessions on fish and immigration, although the illegal immigrants will still be coming after Brexit.

    Labour look competent. The Tories anything but.

  3. @JIB

    I agree. At the moment nothing is going right for CON, and they don’t really have any vote-winning policies to change that story. Apart from Brexit of course, but it’s hard to imagine that is going to deliver short-term benefits to the country at large – more likely the opposite.

  4. Very interesting analysis, Anthony. I tend to agree with much you have said, though, I maintain the Conservatives have the advantage of a seemingly infinite degree of loyalty from the core demos – and the advantage of having nearly half the electorate to themselves.

    Starmer has an advantage of being able to coalesce the other section, but I contend the numbers still do not add up for him. He needs to go for RoC voters to form his coalition.

  5. @CBX

    Don’t you think that once Brexit is ‘done’ on January 1st some of these 40% CON are likely to drift over to a seemly more competent pair of hands?

  6. The cost of Brexit to the UK economy has exceeded the International Space Station (ISS), according to new research – and it continues to rocket.

    A report from Bloomberg Economics estimates that Brexit has set Britain back to the tune of £130 billion and is likely to top £200 billion by the end of the year.

    Getting brexi t done may by new year be a millstone around the Spaffer Cummings regime that they can’t pass the buck for.

  7. Forgot to mention: a 38 – 42% split would make LAB the largest party according to Electoral Calculus.

  8. CBX
    Blair managed the necessary plurality three times and would have achieved absolute majorities each time without winning a single seat in Scotland.
    The combination of an inept government of snake oil salesmen and the likely consequences of brexit even if some sort of anaemic trade deal is cobbled together could lead to a Starmer led party having similar electoral advantage.

  9. Tony

    Nope. Culture. Brexit is part of it – a nice exemplar, but doesn’t explain whole element that Labour is perceived to represent a segment of the community many feel are distant to them. The old flaws on Conservatism are being turned on their head and Labour is seen as the Bourgeoisie party. (See Goodwin, Ford et al)

    I also can see Sunak being leader before next GE (Boris is clearly ill) – but by stepping down, won’t be deposed. Another thing: lot’s like politicians breaking things up and shouting down opponents. If your life is crap, someone appearing to give it to the system is appealing. If Boris get’s a new deal, he will be seen as a winner – he wins by not following the rules.

    Competence is in the eye of the beholder. Many thought Corbyn competent. Boris is good at elections but bad at policy; I suspect Starmer the opposite (and perhaps Sunak, too).

  10. Steve

    Starmer is not very good outside metropolitan areas. He wins the Lib Dem, Green and Labour votes; but will struggle with social conservatives – old Labour voters are social conservatives. Economic conservatives (but social liberals) like me would tolerate, but not vote for him.

  11. CBX
    That may be true I’ve no idea if it will remain the case however picking up a significant share of green and lib dems votes would most definitely secure a fair number of provincial towns for labour.

  12. @CBX

    Well, we shall see. I agree that CON will jettison Johnson if his competence figures don’t improve.

    I can imagine Starmer morphing slowly into a Tony Blair type figure who WAS able to appeal to social conservatives. He gradually pulled them along a more liberal route. Don’t forget: 40 years ago there was huge majority for hanging – which has now disappeared; ‘culture’ is not permanent.

  13. There is a degree of irony that a comprehensive school working class lad from Paddington should be seen as the representative of the bourgeoisie while a private school educated multi millionaire investment banker is perceived (by some) as having the common touch.

  14. Steve

    No. Quite the contrary. It vote stacks. The Conservative VI share has barely declined, but Labour’s has risen. The Conservatives have only fallen below 40% since the calling of the last election once. And that was the first weekend in December.

    The opinion polling between then and now for Conservatives has barely changed. A little down on GE, but roughly where we were at first week of December. Let’s face it, with all that is happening – that is remarkable.

    Labour needs to win other demos. In seats with lots of metropolitans Labour wins already. In those it does not, it splits it from Lib Dem vote helping Con through centre. They need to take votes from blue pile into red.

    Tony

    I disagree actually. I think Boris will go, but NOT be deposed. Thatcher’s knifing left quite the mark. Winners are allowed leeway, losers are not. Boris is an electoral winner, until proven otherwise. But he is ill….

  15. Fun fact
    Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise and Kier Starmer are all older than Nigel Farage.
    All that ranting xenophobia certainly ages you.
    Now back to the sun lounger.
    Kalo apogevma!

  16. “There is a degree of irony that a comprehensive school working class lad from Paddington should be seen as the representative of the bourgeoisie while a private school educated multi millionaire investment banker is perceived (by some) as having the common touch.”

    September 19th, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    ———

    Well, to offer one everyday explanation, those closer to the underclass might trust those they perceive as upper class more, because those a bit lower down are closer to competing with the underclass and might be keener to keep them there.

    And they will look at the policies on immigration and how the bourgeoisie favoured lower income immigration, while the others favour upper tier immigration, and other policies like if the bourgeoisie previously favoured ramping up house prices out of reach of the poorer, and tuition fees and ATOS etc. etc. and maybe conclude there’s something in it.

  17. “because those a bit lower down…”

    = because those a bit below the upper class are closer to competing with the underclass.

  18. Carfrew

    I went on a tour around Italy in 2004. I spoke to regular Italians then about Berlusconi. What they said was: “he was richer than all the other politicians combined, but not a snob; the rest are snooty and look down on us”.

    It left a mark on me. I think Boris/Farage et al seem like themselves – “they might not be like me, but they are who they are and are not afraid of it”. It is why gaffs rub away: they don’t take it seriously and laugh it off.

    If Boris had eaten the infamous bacon roll, he’d have been a hero; it proved Red Ed to be “weird”.

  19. I see the “Boris is ill”mantra is being trotted out again. At the same time 5he right wing press is turning on him and buyer’s remorse being expressed by people who realise that Johnson’s performance as PM is exactly what you would predict it to be from his career.

    Matthew Parris – never a Johnson supporter and who predicted his premiership would not last a year – has delicious opening line to his latest piece in the Times. Quoting an American politician who said of a political opponent “Like a rotten mackerel by moonlight, he shines and stinks”,Parris says Johnson’s shine has gone.

    Also in the Times today, a report that Johnson complaining that he is underpaid and finding it difficult to survive on his £150,000 a year. A friend says that, horror of horrors, he does not know how he can afford a nanny.

  20. And if you recall Oldnat s post of a link, concerning how some of the poorer may see things…

    …some have wondered why poor people might vote for Brexit, and the possibility of an economic hit.

    Well, if you’re on a few zero hours, you don’t have such a great deal to lose.

    The more bourgeoise, might have more to lose. And if the bourgeoise have been voting in support of policies to worsen things for the poorer, it’s not irrational for the poorer to vote to make them suffer some pain too.

  21. BBC reporting that Johnson has refused to call a COBRA meeting over the weekend despite requests from the Welsh and Scottish governments.

  22. cbx1985,
    “The opinion polling between then and now for Conservatives has barely changed. A little down on GE, but roughly where we were at first week of December. Let’s face it, with all that is happening – that is remarkable.”

    No its not remarkable. Not after 5 years where brexit has utterly dominated politics and still does. Conservatives block vote is the leave block vote and will remain solid until brexit is clearly a success sure to endure or clearly a failure to be reversed.

    Why would leavers desert con now? To the extent they do it will imply other con policies have become very objectionable. Or brexit is already not meeting expectations.

  23. It’s conceivable that casually xenophobic working class voters might have voted for the get brexit done party because of some belief that this would free up opportunities for them and more significantly their remain voting grand children as it would free them from foreign competition.
    How’s that going?

    Similarly it’s undeniably true that the party that has spent the last decade dismantling social , educational, health and financial support for the poorest did pretend that this wasn’t them.

    They’ve been sold a packet of l!es.

    The whole real point of Brexit has never been about sovereignty. It has always been about trying to damage a largely successful supranational organisation and the opportunity for currency manipulators to make more money. Those who caused the World’s banking crash and were rewarded with huge public bailouts now want to help themselves to even more off the backs of ordinary working people. It’s worth reminding the public that these people do not produce anything. They don’t care if the UK is in the EU as they will simply relocate inside it like the Leader of the HOC and leading brexi t campaign financiers. Over the last ten years, the Tories have ably assisted them by their transfer of state assets such as schools, the NHS, and utilities to the private sector.

    It will become evident that those who voted for this administration have plenty more to lose , none of which has anything to do with imaginary bourgeoisie policies of the opposition.

  24. “it’s conceivable that casually xenophobic working class voters”.

    This is Labour’s cultural issue in one sentence. Those voters think Labour people think they are bigots. They don’t like the people they think they are bigoted. They vote for people who tell them they are not.

    The working classes stick together, but are a little more direct than Metro voters. Issue is the way to win the Metro vote is diametrically opposed to that of working class – and aiming at them loses the other.

    The Tories spectrum is easier as old school Conservatives have more in favour with working class old Labour (but social conservative) voters. There is paths to unity, where as Starmer needs to pick the old or the new vote. At GE19 they picked new.

  25. The Times tweets:

    “On the personal front sources say Johnson is complaining about money. He is still supporting four out of his six children, has been through an expensive divorce and had his income drop by more than half as a result of fulfilling his lifetime ambition.”

  26. Scottish and Welsh data fro today pretty horrendous – no denying we are on an upwards trajectory in terms of cases, hospitalisation, ICU incumbents and deaths.

    Scottish today – note the 5.3% of those newly tested…highest I can remember

    19 September 2020
    350 new cases of COVID-19 reported; this is 5.3% of newly tested individuals.
    3 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive.
    9 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19.
    64 people were in hospital with recently confirmed COVID-19.
    24,080 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results.

  27. Like @Hireton and Matthew Paris, I too am somewhat baffled by the ‘Boris must be ill’ meme doing the rounds.

    It’s as if some people actually thought he was ever good at something.

    He wasn’t. He was a serially useless mayor of London, who delivered nothing, but persuaded people he was better for the job than Livingston on two occasions, leaving a legacy of failed projects, undelivered promises and corrupt practices.

    He did the same in the Tory leadership election. Recall those Brexit moderates who were convinced Boris would do a sensible deal, and all those Brexit ultras who were convinced he would do a hard no deal? In the end he did a non-sensible hard deal, fouling up everything.

    Then he repeated the trick in GE2019, fouled up everything since.

    Boris is a likeable fellow – at sufficient distance. Rather than a left/right divide, or a Remain/Leave divide, the real divide is between the people who see through him and those who don’t.

    Some of us knew he was useless as a leader years ago. Others, like @Colin, knew this but naturally hoped for the best that he would rise to the occasion.

    Being Prime Minister offers no hiding place. But I still think there is a strong residual level of support for him from those voters who didn’t see through him in December. People don’t like to admit they’ve been fooled, and the barmy messaging of Brexit carries much weight in their minds.

    I think we need to wait a little longer until the wheels finally fall off the Boris bus properly, but the damage he will do to the country in the meantime is immense.

  28. “Similarly it’s undeniably true that the party that has spent the last decade dismantling social , educational, health and financial support for the poorest did pretend that this wasn’t them.

    They’ve been sold a packet of l!es.”

    ———-

    Yes, that was more of the bourgeois stuff that they had had before.

    They might well conclude they’ll keep getting the rubbish end of the stick, but at least those who were cool with voting for inflated house prices, ATOS, tuition fees, low income immigration, privatisations, a lack of full employment etc. can share in some of it.

    Maybe they’ll be a bit more concerned in future.

  29. I agree with Hireton.

    Johnson had performed as PM exactly as many of us predicted from his behaviour as journalist, London leader, and Tory cabinet minister.

    The BBC and doubtless the other London media very rarely remind us of his mishaps like the London bridge, and his failure as Foreign Secretary to master his brief on the poor wife now imprisoned in Iran.

    It`s simply laughable of Tory zealots to be now spinning that Johnson is ill. That is adding to the material that will be used to condemn these Tory members who by their vote gave the party leadership to BJ rather than Jeremy Hunt.

  30. CBX
    I suspect I qualify as more working class than most posters here it’s the parents and grandparents of working class people that contain a large number of casually xenophobic people.
    You can deny it as much as you like but I suspect we all from personal experience know it to be true.The
    We all have family members who are precisely like that.
    It’s not even a question of party politics it’s a cross party age thing.

    Faux outrage at those identifying the truth is however a issue for all political partisans it’s not confined to left or right.
    But the worst offenders by a country mile are brexitanian nationalists.

  31. Steve

    I don’t actually deny what you say. But what you say means they are less likely to like you. And if they think you don’t like them, they won’t vote for you.

    This is Labour’s issue with them. Whilst it is easy to say “we don’t want their votes”, as some do, it is hard to win an election with that strategy. If Labour placates them, it loses the young vote. If it doesn’t it alienates the former voting heartlands.

  32. CBX

    “This is Labour’s cultural issue in one sentence. Those voters think Labour people think they are bigots. They don’t like the people they think they are bigoted. They vote for people who tell them they are not.”

    ———

    There up is some denial about the harm they visited on people. So they just say it’s racism to divert from it. Or say Tories did it too, which is true.

    But from the point of view of the poor person, it remains rational to retaliate. It looks like Tories now may have seen the problem, but of course we don’t really know.

  33. @Carfrew

    Well, if you’re on a few zero hours, you don’t have such a great deal to lose.
    ————————————————————————————————–

    My memory of the Brexit voting patterns was that the less it was likely to cost you he more likely you were to vote or it. The retired and those close to retirement were most enthusiastic, the majority of the unemployed were similarly minded. The employed people who favoured Brexit were those like plumbers and plasterers who felt that were in competition with foreign workers or were having their income held down by their competition. Managers, university educated people etc who were presumably more likely to have good jobs tended to be against Brexit as were the young whose employment prospects it threatened.

    So yest, one element in Brexit was that it offered a free hit to those whose job prospects it was unlikely to damage.

  34. @Charles

    “My memory of the Brexit voting patterns was that the less it was likely to cost you he more likely you were to vote or it.”

    ———-

    I wasn’t trying to explain the whole Brexit voting pattern. I was just offering a rationale why some poor people might have been prepared to risk an economic hit.

    There will be some who don’t think there will be a hit, some who voted for Brexit for different reasons including possibly the reason Steve gives etc.

    Also, it wasn’t just about Brexit, but offering a possible reason why some might have switched to Tories, or might favour upper classes at times.

  35. Alec
    ” In the end he [Boris] did a non-sensible hard deal, fouling up everything.”

    I sometimes wonder if you live in a parallel universe. You are absolutely certain about things in the future, yet seem not to be aware of the present – i.e. the deal is still being negotiated.
    ——————————-
    Charles
    Not everyone is motivated purely by financial self-interest. Many people do not like being governed by what they see as a remote power. e,g. UK voted to leave the EU, many Scots want to leave the UK, and recently I believe the Shetlanders are getting restless because they don’t want to be ruled by Scotland. This is a common pattern around the world over the last few decades – e.g. break up of USSR and Yugoslavia and even rumblings that people in some US states (e.g. California) may want to leave the USA. Admittedly that last one does seem unlikely at the moment.

  36. @Carfrew

    I wasn’t trying to explain the whole Brexit voting pattern. I was just offering a rationale why some poor people might have been prepared to risk an economic hit.
    ————————————————————————————————–

    i know! And I was trying to illustrate one respect in which I thought you were right!

  37. Two London Mayors and one GE (so far) – doo dah, doo dah ;)

    Not bad for a blustering baffoon ;)

  38. CBX
    Fortunately I don’t have to square that circle.
    But For what it’s worth simply because someone might be inclined to be casually xenophobic doesn’t mean that they can’t be persuaded to overcome an irrational inclination.
    It’s of course politically expedient for any political party to pretend there are other motivations.

    Because in general even racists don’t like to be called racists and get the hump when it’s pointed out.
    So best not to.
    We’re not trying to win votes here so we can be a tad more honest.

  39. CBX

    “Starmer is not very good outside metropolitan areas. He wins the Lib Dem, Green and Labour votes; but will struggle with social conservatives – old Labour voters are social conservatives. Economic conservatives (but social liberals) like me would tolerate, but not vote for him.”

    You may have missed it, but I’ve found that the evidence from Opinium’s cross-breaks suggests the opposite (please see the last couple of pages in the last thread).

    Opinium provides analysis by seats which are Con 2019 gain, Con Hold and Lab hold. This shows both main parties doing better in each other’s seats than in those they currently hold – with the Con Hold seats averaging an 11% swing to Labour. Admittedly, this is just sub-samples, but for the Con Hold sample, it is 500 respondents x 5 polls.

    There is also analysis in Opinium by types of seat : City, Town and Rural. These show Labour 4 points ahead in the cities, a fraction of 1% ahead in the Towns, and 13 points behind in rural seats (this is an average of the last three polls). While I’m not sure what these figures were in GE2019, it looks encouraging for Labour, particularly in the towns.

    Finally, the small amount of London-specific polling suggests that the swing there is smaller than for the rest of England. R&W’s London poll a week or two ago put Labour 21 points ahead, a swing of 2.5% since GE2019. Wider, GB polls are currently suggesting a swing of 5% for England as a whole.

  40. @Charles

    “i know! And I was trying to illustrate one respect in which I thought you were right!”

    ———

    Apologies Charles, I should have thanked you for that useful info… I was worried about it being a Brexit thing and was a bit distracted trying to sort out car issues for my partner.

    On the plus side I discovered she could beam her satnav position remotely to my iPad. Who knew?

  41. @PETE B

    ‘many Scots want to leave the UK’.

    This is not really a good example for the case you are putting: many Scots want to leave the UK because they want to stay in EU!

  42. Thanks AW interesting write up. The latest YouGov obviously not good for BJ in particular and the Tories generally although like CBX1985 the 40% still seems rock solid to me. Clearly the lead has dropped and is probably no more than 2-3%.

    Somewhat surprised we have still not seen a Labour lead which I as expecting this weekend. Ignoring the obviously partisan comments on these pages this is clearly a difficult time for the Government so no great surprise in current polling.

  43. @ JAMES E – good analysis of the x-breaks on last thread. I would however note overall “loyalty” of CON and LAB VI (from GE’19) is very high and LABs main gain has come from snaffling 40%ish of LDEM’19

    It is plausible that DK and LTV is causing some of the issue, eg

    – Corbynites in Safe LAB seats less keen on Sir Keir
    – Fiscal discipline zealots in Safe CON less keen on the new blue team
    – marginals won by CON in GE’19 voted to Get Brexit Done and some are back to not bovvered

    So I’d caution use of the term “swing” as there is only a small % of direct CON – LAB “flow”

    However, for sure CON will need to ensure GOTV for GE’24. LAB can retake seats if CON’19 abstain en masse.

    “Level up” will IMO be the key test – the North remembers

  44. Pete B – and others

    Re Scots wanting to leave the UK

    One of the things which I believe many people fail to appreciate is the degree to which the Scots have sought counterbalances to the power of England for most of the past 1100 years. Apart from a temporary alliance during the period of the Reformation (c. 1550 – 1690), Scotland has been seeking counterbalances to English power since before the Norman conquest of England. Whether it be the trade alliances with the Hanseatic Ports and the Low Countries, the Auld Alliance with France, the Empire (which was British and a delicate counterbalance to Englishness, and in which the Scots did pretty well) or the European project, Scotland has sought to avoid being dominated by its big neighbour.

    Now the most recent counterbalance, the EU, has been removed. Therefore something new will have to be constructed (or something old resurrected) in order to maintain Scotland’s cultural and political distinction from England. The Devolution Settlement is too fragile (especially under the current UK political situation) to be a long-term solution.

    Of course, Shetland might seek ‘independence’ from Scotland: but as part of which political/economic grouping? Denmark (Faroes) or Norway/Iceland?

    The question for Scots is whether Independence per se is sufficient, or whether Scotland needs to ally itself with a big partner to counterbalance England – thus the wish on the part of many to rebuild the European alliance (rejoin the EU).

    It seems to me that most people south of the Border fail to appreciate the need for small nations to have allies to counterbalance their big neighbours. Perhaps the next few years will bring that need home to an increasingly ‘small’ (in world terms) England.

  45. Steve,

    “We all have family members who are precisely like that.”

    Speak for yourself!

    I don’t, working class childhood, working class wife, both from second third generation working class parents from Yorkshire, Scotland and both sides of the Irish border and not a single racist or xenophobic in my family!

    Peter.

  46. Peter Cairns
    Lucky you.

  47. @pete B – “I sometimes wonder if you live in a parallel universe. You are absolutely certain about things in the future, yet seem not to be aware of the present – i.e. the deal is still being negotiated.”

    Well now, let’s just remind ourselves – who was it who recently told us that the deal that he himself negotiated and signed, after promising the nation that it was a great deal for the UK, then turned round and said that it was a deal that would break up the UK could never be accepted?

    @Trevs – “Not bad for a blustering baffoon ;)”

    But that’s the point. Everyone agrees that (so far) he has been good at winning elections.

    The question is for what purpose?

    London has no legacy whatsoever for his 8 year tenure other than a string of expensive failed initiatives and several year setback on house building – one of his big promises left unfulfilled.

    Tony Blair was an ace at winning elections, and got bigger majorities than Boris managed three times on the trot.

    But was he a great Prime Minister?

    Gaining power and using power. there’s a world of difference. Whatever we say about brilliant strategists and political skills, the ability to gain power is largely defined by luck: the circumstance, the opponent, the mood of the nation.

    By contrast, the ability to be a great Prime Minister is almost entirely defined by the abilities of the individual, whatever the circumstances that are thrown at them. I would say Margaret was a great PM (though not my flavour). Clem was the very best. Boris is about as close to the very worst that you could get.

  48. @Pete B
    Not everyone is motivated purely by financial self-interest.
    —————————————————————————————————

    I agree. Some people are, however. Turk, for example, voted against Brexit because of what he saw as the interests of farmers. In other respects I suspect he agrees with you. Similarly it is easier to prioritise ‘not being governed by a foreign power’ if one does not need to jeopardise one’s job by doing so,

  49. @peteb

    “I sometimes wonder if you live in a parallel universe. You are absolutely certain about things in the future, yet seem not to be aware of the present – i.e. the deal is still being negotiated.”

    Really? You told me the other day that I was living in the past because Brexit had happened presumably with the oven ready, wonderful deal that Johnson had negotiated before the December 2019 election.

  50. “Not bad for a blustering baffoon”
    Boris, like Britain, needed pals to win. Boris, like Britain, is fast running out of both. The same goes for Donald. When all you have left is purile football songs, we know the real score. 2-0 to Vladimir, and he hardly had to try. Two blustering baffoons, and one weakened EU buffer to Russia. Doo da etc.

    @Steve
    Here’s how I view Indy Scots vs Brexiteers:

    Indy – “The status quo is crap. Let’s vote for less crap.”
    Brexit – “The status quo is crap. Let’s vote for crap-to-the-max.”

    You can generally distill the reasoning down to 2-3 things for most Indy folk. Away from WM, and back in the EU would be the big two. Indy gives one, and a chance of two. Equally, you can distill the Brexit reasoning down to 2-3 main things. Away from EU and less immigration. The first will probably give a better chance of the second (if you trust the promise of a politician).

    In both cases the first issue (away from WM or away from EU) can be seen as a positive or negative thing, depending on the eye of the beholder. However, the latter Brexit one is less comfortable for many.

    Many in England believe immigration has gone too far. They don’t go into details as to how far is far enough, because they don’t have data or details. It’s a general concept in their head, in the same way the concept of being English isn’t detailed on paper. It’s opinion. Point of view. It’s largely based on preconception, biased media, and the inclination to blame all but themselves for whatever things have befallen them. The unseen ‘them’.

    People are reticent to liken 1930s Germany to Brexit, lest they be accused of words beginning with ‘F’ or ‘N’, and I understand their reticence. It’s all too easy to accuse the other side as being akin to the worst excesses of the 1930s (including Stalin’s lot). However, when a working-class voting population had reached a point of voting for an Eton guy with a track record of failure, you know something’s amiss, and people who read their history start to look slightly worried.

    I should also point out, that the Tory end of the activists and media didn’t hold back on Jeremy being Stalinist or on his supposed ties to the IRA. They don’t care to be too reticent. It’s not uncommon for them to go at the SNP in a North Korean tone either.

    They have nothing of substance to offer, so they bawl and stamp, and throw out every insult they can think of. Then they cry fowl when the other lot do it. They’re kinda sn0wflakey themselves, when you analyse it from afar. Then someone shouts out a football chant in a forum, and we know the real score.

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