Recent voting intention figures continue to show a moderate Conservative lead of between 6 and 9 points. Voting intention polls published so far this month are:

YouGov/Times (5th Aug) – CON 42, LAB 36, LD 8
Redfield & Wilton (12th Aug) – CON 43, LAB 36, LD 9
Ipsos MORI/Standard (4th Aug) – CON 45, LAB 37, LD 6
Survation (3rd Aug) – CON 44, LAB 35, LD 8

While the media narrative around the government’s handling of the Corona outbreak has turned far more negative, the polling suggests the public are still quite evenly split. So in the latest Ipsos MORI monitor 42% think the government have handled the outbreak well, 40% badly.

Keir Starmer continues to poll positively. His satisfaction rating from MORI is plus 22, by 38% to 24% people think he has what it takes to be a good PM. In YouGov’s regular “best PM” question Starmer led Johnson by 34 to 32% last week – the first time the Labour leader has been in the lead since a single poll straight after the 2017 election. Starmer apparently polling more positively than Labour is an interesting dynamic. MORI have (or used to have) a nice tracker question asking if people like the leader, like the party, both or neither. Over the last couple of decades people have consistently liked the Labour party more than they’ve liked its leaders. I don’t think they’ve asked it yet of Starmer, but all other other polling suggests we may find ourselves in the unusual position of having a Labour leader who is more popular than their party. A different question is to what extent this is because Starmer appeals to the public more than his predecessors, and to what extent it’s a sign that the Labour party’s own brand has been tarnished.

Immigration has started to sneak up the political agenda again, presumably on the back of coverage of migrant boats in the English Channel. YouGov’s weekly tracker on the most important issue facing the country has immigration spiking up 9 points to 29%, though health, the economy and Brexit remain the dominant issues. The Ipsos MORI issues index shows it significantly lower – up 3 points to only 9% – but the fieldwork for that is a little older (conducted 31st Jul-5th Aug), so may have concluded before the story really hit headlines.

The week there was also a new YouGov poll of Scotland. Voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament election next year were SNP 57%, CON 20%, LAB 14%, LDEM 8% for the constituency vote, SNP 47%, CON 21%, LAB 14%, LD 7%, GRN 6%. Translated into seats this would likely give the SNP a solid overall majority despite the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system.

That would increase the chances of another independence referendum in the near future. The same poll found that by 44% to 41% people thought there should be a referendum in the event the SNP win a majority, and that as things stand people would vote yes. 45% of people they would vote yes, 40% no. Removing won’t votes and don’t knows, that translates to Yes 53%, No 47%. Tabs for the Scottish polling are here.


4,856 Responses to “Polling round up – August 2020”

1 95 96 97 98
  1. OldNat

    It depends who are the 200 (at JP Morgan).

    There are discussions going on in the financial services sector about relocating head offices from London – but it is far from clear (mainly for legal/regulatory reasons). Judging from one major consultancy firm (that got into the financial markets, so a large proportion of the revenue comes from this) and one investment bank – both moving the European head office from London to the Netherlands – it is a warning sign.

    However, it depends on the dependence on Europe, China and the US on further developments for any business involved (so very divers). If the regulatory framework doesn’t change – the moving out will accelerate. If it changes, then the question is the direction. So, for example, it is unlikely to affect FX, but there could (not would) be massive implications in investment banking specialising in below 5% investment in cross-border businesses (but it would be for deals over 5%).

    One thing (and yes, I cannot disclose the source) – several major finance related companies offered voluntary redundancy or secondment in the Netherlands – supposedly (!) for making room for staff from London.

    However, I think it is a more medium term process and although Brexit affects it, it is not a trigger. Knowing some of these companies, they wouldn’t go down a crisis track.

    Yet – the position of those 200 are terribly important.

    [sorry for the cloudy explanation]

  2. There is certainly huge concern in W London.

    One borough PH director has written:

    “Coronavirus cases in this borough and across London are continuing to rise. We must work together to bring these numbers down, control the spread of the virus, and continue to protect people who are vulnerable to severe symptoms of the virus. These vulnerable people will be members of our family, our friends and our neighbours for whom catching the virus could be serious and need hospital care. We must not allow a return to the high numbers of people in hospital we had between April and May – with your help we can avoid this.

    “The rise in numbers has coincided with the easing of lockdown restrictions, the start of the school term, of working-aged people returning to their workplaces and people socialising. Similar to the national picture, the majority of our cases are working age adults aged between 20 and 50. As of Wednesday 16 September, there were 88 people who have had a confirmed positive test in the last seven days, and this number is increasing even though access to testing is proving to be a challenge.

    “Our rate is still below the figure where a local lockdown would be considered, but it is one of the highest rates in London. None of us want to see more restrictions in place, we need to be able to carry on our daily routine, keep our children safely in school, and support our shops and local businesses. We can all play our part to help keep the borough open for business. Unless you are exempt, please wear a face covering when you’re inside public spaces or out and about and can’t maintain a 2 metre distance, and remember to wash your hands regularly for 20 seconds. We have beautiful green spaces in our borough, but it is crucial that you don’t meet up in groups of more than six people, unless they are from your household or social bubble. Don’t be the one to break the rules they have been imposed to address rising infection levels and you can be fined if you are found to be breaking them.

    “If you develop symptoms of the virus, please immediately self-isolate and book a test. If you cannot get a test, please be responsible and self-isolate – this is really important. The national testing programme is struggling to manage the high demand for Covid-19 tests. It’s important that if you don’t have symptoms, and have not been advised to take a test that you don’t book one – tests need to be prioritised for people who are symptomatic. I know this is frustrating for everyone.

    “I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the majority of residents who have been following the guidance, and shown so much resilience and community spirit throughout this crisis. Let’s continue to work together to keep the borough safe.”

  3. Alec,
    “Correcting the rubbish you keep churning out is a thankless task, and one that I’ve largely given up on, but now and then I think I should keep my hand in.”

    Perhaps then you could address what is maybe the central point I have been observing over the last couple of days.

    There continues to be no evidence of rise in the south of England. In particular the SW, but the SE too. That there is a gradation of incidence from approx south to north across GB, which is rather the inverse of the cases we saw in the spring.

    Where cases were highest then, they are lowest now. It is evidence significant immunity was created in the spring.

    Recent data from Sweden showed the start of a rise in cases there too, just as numbers were rising across europe. But then it collapsed again. The most likely explanation is it hit the immunity ceiling in Sweden and was stopped.

    The data for SW has just a suggestion this already happened there and pethaps has happened in SE too.

    I think both Sw and SE have benefited from the epidemic arriving last year, so they had a head start on immunity. But that too illustrates this is a self limiting disease, and we can explain why because of pre existing immunity. Least effective in the old as is always the case.

    An epidemiologists on news night just now confirmed there is dissent amongst experts who do not agree a process of exponential rise has begun, but rather it is equally likely case numbers are rising because of relaxed restrictions but will stabilise again at a higher baseline. That may come about because we already have significant immunity in the north as well as the south.

    There are still no figures distinguishing people in hospital who are sick with covid from those there because they are sick with something else but happen to also have covid. This applies to every single alleged covid death to date.We have hardly any decent information about the prospect of more covid deaths, except that right now they are well within acceptable norms.

    There is frankly no evidence covid deaths will ever rise above levels seen in the spring. Considering the cost of lockdown and the fact this is not so very much above what is normally entirely acceptable, it is becoming clear lockdown was never justified. A repeat is equally not justified, especially since with the immunity bought so far it will be milder.

    Sweden stabilised it’s epidemic with much fewer restrictions, fewer deaths, less cost, generating more immunity We could have done that and should now.

    It is time to stop accepting this bungling approach which had cost lives and money both of which could have been avoided.

    lockdown was a horribly expensive mistake which must stop.

  4. Laszlo

    Thanks. My uninformed guess had been that while not disruptive of the London (and thus UK) economy on its own, it could be an indicator that basing so much of the economy on such a volatile sector, for which choice of geographic location may be desirable, but not essential, may not have been the cleverest strategy.

  5. “I Think Dido will be remembered; but for the wrong reasons.”
    @Lady valerie September 18th, 2020 at 10:00 pm

    Well now that I have seen it here I’m afraid that from now on her name will always have an extra L.

    I can’t ‘unsee’ that.

  6. oldnat,
    “It’s not all down to the incompetence of UKGE. Obvious though that is.”

    No indeed. Lockdown and testing have throughout been pushed by WHO. It is pretty much their plan most have followed, and it is wrong.

    The reasons for this error include accepting the chinese view on how this epidemic spread in china. It is clear this was impacted by their own propaganda needs. A massive over reliance on testing to define the existence or not of a case, which automatically under reported the extent of the disease while over reporting it’s severity. A dogmatic insistence on eradication of any new disease, refusing to accept that this is no longer possible. A refusal to countenance that in fact we have to learn to live with covid because it is beyond our ability to eradicate, but also because once we have immunity it will not be any more serious than other annual viruses. Living with it is the better option. The fact that we were already significantly immune so the fight was already half won by our own immune systems before it began.

    What was needed was the Swedish approach of working through managing the epidemic. What everyone missed was the fact that our immunity naturally fails in the old, and so this group is uniquely at risk. This observed phenomenon that covid hits the old is itself evidence we are largely immune from the start. its the exact same pattern for all similar viruses.

    What was always needed was extreme measures to protect them alone, while the rest of us catch it as fast as possible so it largely dies out and the chance of someone high risk catching it is minimised.

    I said that months ago. Now I understand better why this is true.

    Sturgeon fell into the trap of accepting eradication is possible and talked about this happening in Scotland. What she and everyone else misunderstood is how tenacious this class of virus is. The only possible hope of eradication is if everyone is fully immune, and while we have enough protection most are quite safe, we are nowhere near that level. It is part of the survival plan of the virus it can exist as a low level infection until an opportunity presents for mass spread. A whole family of viruses exist which can do this. Every summer they continue to exist and spread without us noticing to burst back as conditions favour them more.

  7. YG/Times new poll being tweeted as

    Con 40% (-2)
    Lab 40% (+3)
    LD 6% (nc)

  8. Danny

    You are still an idiot. You don’t even understand the difference between “eradication” and “elimination”.

  9. US polling update

    Nationally, Marist have Biden ahead by 9, down 2 from their poll in mid-August, so another supporting the slight narrowing of recent times.

    In Arizona, Siena have Biden ahead by 9, so that’s another in the “comfortably Dem” column, and continues the complete polarisation between polls finding this state very good for Biden and finding it very close between the two candidates

    Siena also polled in North Carolina, where their Biden lead of 1 point continues the neck-and-neck trend, and in Maine where they found Biden leading by only 2 in the key 2nd Congressional District, in line with the various July polls putting it neck-and-neck and suggesting that yesterday’s remarkable Quinnipiac lead of 9 points for Biden might indeed have been rogue. The lobsters haven’t abandoned him yet @ALEC ;-)

    EPIC-MRA polled in Michigan and like everyone else recently, found it looking comfortable for Biden, with a lead of 8.

    As I should have added yesterday (it was late!) Biden now has a 77% probability of winning the election in 538’s forecast.

  10. Trump envoy warns UKGov that “The Trump administration, State Department and the US Congress would all be aligned in the desire to see the Good Friday Agreement preserved to see the lack of a border maintained”.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1165918/?__twitter_impression=true

    Looks like Gove/Cummings strategy is being brought to heel. I’m reminded of Suez.

  11. Latest YouGov for the Times

    Con. 40% -2
    Lab. 40% +3
    Lib 6% u/c

    So finally Labour have drawn level and will take some encouragement to have hit the 40% mark. You would have to go back to peak Corbyn for such favourable ratings for Lab.

    Who would make better PM?

    Johnson 31%
    Starmer 34%
    Don’t know 35%

    Johnson will be concerned by these ratings.

  12. USA News

    “Supreme Court says Liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died. ”

    If the outcome of the Presidential Election ends up in the Supreme Court …….

  13. @OLDNAT

    Speculating right now with a friend whether Trump could try to nominate a replacement for RBG via a friendly or even a lame-duck Senate.

    I was writing a post about the Senate for here when I saw my US friends start to post streams of angst on Facebook… I don’t know what the impacts of this will be but I suspect it’s going to be far more impactful than who spouts what platitudes about a theoretical UK trade deal.

  14. @danny

    “Is that a big or small contribution? Not counting dependents.”

    Ok so you are just trolling then given you ignored the rest of my post. Shall repeat for clarity: people are born and exist independent of engineering jobs being available thus not necessary to count carbon expenditure of employees in full life costs of energy production

  15. @Carfrew

    I think the big difference is none of us are experts on all these subjects, but some of us like to think they are.

    Some things don’t even require expertise, and yet the self-appointed experts can spend weeks throwing ideas around, achieving nothing.

    Lockdown. Job done. But the experts and their fanatical supporters know better. Aye so they do. Six months later…there was no proper lockdown.

    I’m not against debate, but filling page after page of unreadable, unimportant garbage and turning off the readership isn’t the aim.

    Or is it? Answers on a postcard.

  16. Statgeek

    100% support your 1:38 am. I would have said 1000% but as a statgeek, I thought you might object :)

  17. US Polling update – the Senate

    So for the casual spectators – the Senate is elected in thirds, every two years. As it is made up of 2 Senators from each of the 50 states, regardless of population size, which seats are up for election in which cycle makes a huge difference, likewise whether a seat is up at the same year as a Presidential election or not. (kinda like how council elections in England and Wales can get impacted by turnout if they happen on the same day as a GE).

    If there’s a tie on any vote, the casting vote is made by the US Vice President, so essentially 50 seats gives you control if your party holds the White House, and you need 51 if not.

    Current balance is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (or more technically 45 Democrats and 2 Independents who vote with the Dems anyway and periodically run to be Dem Presidential candidate :-) ).

    So if Trump is re-elected, the Dems need to gain 4 seats net to gain control, and if Biden is elected they need 3 seats net. And there are plenty of articles speculating about 3 or 4 seats they could potentially gain.

    However, one of the Democrat seats is held by Doug Jones, who won a very strange by-election in Alabama against a barely legal Republican candidate, and who seems very likely to lose comfortably against a normal Republican this time around.

    So effectively the Dems need to gain 4 Republican seats if Biden wins and 5 if Trump wins.

    Likely gains;
    Arizona – the polling shows the incumbent Republican trailing consistently, and indeed underperforming Trump in the state

    Maine – the polling is also bad for the incumbent Republican, who has been accused both of being too disloyal and too supportive of Trump

    Colorado – the Republican incumbent is running against a former state Governor and trailing consistently in polls

    So those three are probably good. But then for the fourth, and potentially fifth…

    North Carolina – polls suggest the incumbent Republican is behind, but not by much and this state is going to get a *lot* of time and attention from the Presidential race between now and election day
    Iowa – polls show neck and neck

    After this we’re talking Georgia (polls showing Republicans with a consistent if small lead), Montana (incumbent Senator against a former Dem Governor, could make it closer than usual), and really there isn’t anything else on this year’s map, barring a truly astonishing result somewhere like Kansas or South Carolina.

    So as it stands, this is likely to be an extremely close election. Both sides need to win the one toss-up state if they want to have a chance, and both need to win the next closest one that’s leaning slightly Dem if they want to be sure.

  18. As @OLDNAT posted a little earlier, US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died.

    Whilst it would normally be considered deeply tasteless to immediately speculate on political impacts of someone dying, there tends to be no such grace period in US politics even in normal times, let alone with a Presidential election in just over six weeks.

    (Also she was 87, consistently ill, and clearly trying to outlive the Trump administration, so I suspect she’d have understood the immediate rush to interpret)

    What happens next will be important on two levels. Firstly, it’s possible that Trump could try to nominate a replacement regardless of if he loses in November, or even try to do so before the election itself. This would be incredibly controversial either way, but with a 53-47 majority in the Senate until January it’s quite possible he could go for it.

    Also it means that as @OLDNAT hinted, if the Presidential election outcome itself is contested in the courts, it’s likely to be ultimately heard by a Supreme Court of only 8. This is not, as might be presented in various media tomorrow, a simple case of right v left – rather those who think courts should use common sense and interpret the will of the people have lost their leading advocate, and so those who favour a strict interpretation of the written rules are now stronger.

    That is the distinction that matters, along with the fact that if the Supreme Court is tied on a case then it’s considered a No Result – there’s no casting vote and the verdict of the lower court that referred the case to them in the first place stands as it was. So ff the election is contested, which courts any challenges come through could end up mattering more than what the Supreme Court thinks.

  19. @Statty

    Some have more conviction than others, but then that doesn’t just apply to science. Some for example think they are sufficiently expert on politics and economics to pronounce on Independence and maintain it’s the best course of action.

    Or Remain/Brexit. Personally I find both rather hard to call and am amazed at times at the certainty of others.

    But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t air their ideas and subject them to scrutiny.

    It is quite often those with an activist streak, campaigning for a particular thing, not really putting it up for debate, acting like they have expert certainty, who ironically complain about others putting their ideas forward. It gets in the way of the campaigning of course.

    And if you are campaigning, it’s easier to project that onto others, that they are just selling a position, when they might be doing something different: swapping ideas and developing a position, gaining more understanding.

    For me, with an educational interest, I find it fascinating to see people’s different views and arguments, the info. they share, the way things develop. You can get a lot out of it whether they are expert or not.

  20. @EoR

    I think Trump would be on very thin ice, even with a judicial bias, if loses the popular vote and the electoral college.

    My current hunch is that he loses both, and he needs to significantly increase his total to the mid 60 million votes to beat Biden.

  21. Just a few covid figures based on statistics.
    World wide mortality continues its slow decline which commenced in August.
    The UK hospitalization rate hasn’t doubled in the last week as suggested elsewhere it’s risen 15%.
    Deaths in most countries remain low there is a worrying trend particularly in Spain and France, still substantially lower than at earlier peaks, but which doesn’t appear to be the trend in their neighbours such as Italy and Germany.
    The only country in Europe with initially high rates that continues to see a fall in cases is Sweden.

    I’ll leave it to others to argue over why.

  22. According to the Guardian ; “A £200m contract to implement Brexit checks on goods in the Irish Sea has been won by a consortium of companies led by Japanese company Fujistu.”

    Further evidence that Johnson will be signing the deal and the hot air that was generated over the recent bill was pure posturing.

  23. @Statty

    Also, since it also seems to bother you, and maybe some others too, I know it can be difficult to accept that some may be able to turn their hand to a range of things, but it is what you might expect. Because a big part of the point of doing science is that it can let you solve a range of problems.

    If you do chemistry, then you can apply that to a range of things, from batteries to the biochemistry of immunology. You’ll have done some stats too, which can be applied to various things. Same with studying engineering. You might consider everything from renewable energy, to the fluid dynamics behind the transmission of Covid.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7429142/

    Because of the maths, it’s also not hard to also take in economics, as I did at Uni. I hadn’t studied it before, but once someone showed me how to write an economics essay, it wasn’t hard to do some of the PPE essays. It uses a lot of the same maths – partial differentials and so on. Also, because a lot of logic is involved, discussing things with the lawyers was ok too. And with the philosophers, discussing the philosophy of science.

    But there are limits. Like, there’s no guarantee scientists will be much cop at languages, or with people, or with painting etc. etc… and many other things. Doesn’t mean you’ll be much cop at writing, cricket, drama, graphic design, allotments, management etc. Also, maths and lab work have enough differences that one can be rather better at one than the other. (Thus, you tend to see the science types sticking to things within the orbit of the transferable skills of science. There’s a lot they tend to leave alone).

    But computers may be easier, and so on. Trouble is that online, proof can be limited. People may think it’s just words. In the real world, once you see someone tangibly solving a range of practical problems, it’s a bit different.

  24. @Statty

    Another example: the Black-Scholes equation that won an economics Nobel, and ushered in the realm of financial derivatives, is based on the heat equation used in maths and physics.

  25. A very detailed and rather long analysis of the current Brexit position and where it will end up. The analysis suggests that we may still end up with a very modest trade deal, soured relations with the EU, a slowly declining economy and angry Brexit supporters who will continue to inflame the debate, partly out of conviction and partly to ensure the votes they need. This is his optimistic prediction! His less optimistic prediction is that we get no deal at all and all of the above but to an even greater degree.

    Alec might like to read the piece and has the stamina for it. The Trevors might like to skim if and cherry pick nuggets for their idiosyncratic position. Brexiteers will not like this piece and are generally advised not to read it.

    https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2020/09/blockades-mythical-and-metaphorical.html

  26. @Danny – “There continues to be no evidence of rise in the south of England. In particular the SW, but the SE too. That there is a gradation of incidence from approx south to north across GB, which is rather the inverse of the cases we saw in the spring.”

    Well except that London is approaching the critical list and @Millie gave us all some interesting details about how the SW dd not have many cases last time around, yes, I guess you have a point.

    Spouting total rubbish I’m afraid. It’s coming back to the south. Iran is on their third wave.

  27. ‘@JimJam

    Charles sounds like typical DK/WNV most of which returns home at GEs in the end

    I agree. But it depends a bit on what happens. My connection with them is through the accidents of national service and they are a basically public spirited group who have done well as doctors, lawyers, senior executives, civil servants etc. They are all fanatically anti-Brexit and those of them who were actually members of the conservative party have resigned. (If this is happening on on a wide scale the party will purge itself without the need for Cummings). if Sunak takes over from Johnson they will go back. If Johnson hangs on they certainly won’t and two have already joined the LibDems.

  28. @ON

    Thanks for the further research.

    What a load of codswallop Johnson carries in his bawbag.

    (Thanks to the former pupil in whose book I found a similar description of my learned disquisitions on the Latin tongue)

  29. jamesb,
    “Ok so you are just trolling then given you ignored the rest of my post. Shall repeat for clarity: people are born and exist independent of engineering jobs being available thus not necessary to count carbon expenditure of employees in full life costs of energy production”

    Go ask a roman who bought and sold slaves to build his engineering projects. The human input to something is every bit as much a cost in resources as steel or oil. That it might not be being counted just shows how difficult it is to really properly cost things. The UK has maybe 40 million people available to provide work and every one had a carbon cost in creating them and maintaining them.

    Consider instead a construction company owning digging machines. Could build a sports centre or a power plant. Do we discount the carbon cost of this work on the power plant because it might instead have been used to make something different?

    Carfrew,
    “. You might consider everything from renewable energy, to the fluid dynamics behind the transmission of Covid”

    There have been one or two studies about physical effects of masks which have been used to claim they are effective in stopping spread. I always thought this was far too complex for a simple physical explanation to justify or not effectiveness in reducing transmission. Your link indicates others think it terribly complex too.

    It’s a situation which I think better approached from the opposite direction, looking at under what real world situations people really catch covid. Unfortunately that has not been studied either! (although the swedes seem to have applied this principle in trying to devise their restrictions and to develop realistic measures based upon what is just enough rather than adding extra margin when in doubt))

    I have always thought the threshold effect, whereby people need a minimum dose to become infected is extraordinary, but also totally confounds any simple model about travel through the air. If the threshold might be 1 virus or a billion, transmission losses might be irrelevant. Somewhere in between, the interaction between what is just enough to infect and how precisely virus gets attenuated on the way comes to matter. But even then getting the right dose may benefit you, and this might be more not less.

  30. Alec

    I suspect you are right some probably most countries will see a second wave. Bit of a misnomer if their first wave was at for example the level in Greece with case count maximum of around 300 per day equivalent to around 10% UK maximum and deaths in low single figures, the second wave they are currently experiencing is much the same as the first.

    But let’s accept that it’s likely that most countries that saw a substantial number of cases the first time will or already have their second wave
    An example would be Spain with a significant increase in mortality to around 15-20% of the previous peak. The largest increase by some way of any country incidentally.
    However despite repeated hysteria about 12000+ cases a day, compounded by Spain’s own method of number presentation the actual number of cases per day has nearly halved in three weeks.
    Presumably this will be reflected fairly soon in mortality rates.

    If that’s what a second wave is going to look like in the U.K. I would hope the response wouldn’t be to tell us all to hide back under the beds again as it’s disproportionate and probably too late to make any difference anyway.

    Back in Greece at the moment still no cases currently in Corfu so the hysteria levels are a magnitude lower.

  31. @Danny

    “Lockdown and testing have throughout been pushed by WHO. It is pretty much their plan most have followed, and it is wrong.”

    No, they’re experts. You’re anything but, and wrong on almost all your pet topics.

    You’re now obsessing with Sweden. It is has a higher recorded rate than the UK at 8500 infected per million compared to 6000 here.

    We will see what happens won’t we Danny.

    At least you realise herd immunity hasn’t happened. Wrong there again weren’t you?

  32. JIB

    Don’t want to get into your debate with Danny but currently the infection rate per 100000 is 15 per week the UK is 30. Mortality rate is currently averaging less than 1 a day.
    Here’s today’s data the ecdc does a 14 day rolling average half the figure for the UK system of measure.

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

  33. Alec,
    “Well except that London is approaching the critical list”

    You side stepped the central point I was making and instead chose to attack a different one. If your oponents central point is unanswerable, deflect to something weaker?

    I summarised it for you:
    “Where cases were highest then, they are lowest now. It is evidence significant immunity was created in the spring”

    We might have started this with 30% immunity and now be on 60%. The model that covid is a virulent disease but one to which we mostly already have immunity fits well with the facts. Such a change in starting conditions however enormously affects conclusions about future behaviour, like how many might die. It explains why modelling has been wrong.

    Government seems to be proceeding on an assumption we are something like 10% immune whereas it might be more like 90%.

    We will not know that unless we do what Sweden did and tolerate a high level of cases. The only way we have at the moment to assess immunity is when it dies out naturally.

    That’s what the low case numbers in the south are showing – immunity.

    But what critical list are you talking about? Some arbitrary level chosen because it was a bit below the maximum incidence at the time it was selected? levels now are maybe x100 below the peak. Having a million cases at one time would still require a whole year to get through this and is too slow. Our target needs to be higher than that, especially if your pessimistic estimates of immunity are right.

    I think we have significant immunity, you dont. But either way the Swedish approach is right. If you are right it just means we wasted six months and must begin again.

  34. @Danny – ““Where cases were highest then, they are lowest now. It is evidence significant immunity was created in the spring”

    No, I didn’t sidestep this. I told you it was total [email protected]

    Why are you incapable of understanding simple statements, let alone evidence?

    My own area had high cases in April May. We’re now back into partial lockdown, because we’ve got high cases. I understand that you will never grow up and learn to understand data from a more objective viewpoint, but please don’t accuse other posters of sidestepping issues.

    You are the master of that.

  35. @Danny

    “You side stepped the central point I was making and instead chose to attack a different one. If your oponents central point is unanswerable, deflect to something weaker?”

    What a rogue you are! You present such a chimera of mad ideas, nobody can possibly answer them.

    I noticed you wrote this as well; “but also because once we have immunity it will not be any more serious than other annual viruses. Living with it is the better option.”

    How can you possibly write such preposterous garbage. You have no idea how serious SARS-CoV-2 would be if it became an established annual endemic disease.

  36. Two articles in my Times today terrify.

    One on the horrendous virus developments in Spain , and the. Regional & National government incompetence there.

    One in the alleged physical & mental state of Boris Johnson.

    I do not want these two world’s to coincide in this country.

    I can hardly bring myself to listen to him now as CV19 comes back down from the North in my direction.

    Hand over now Boris and do the country a favour.

  37. The 40/40 from YouGov will be especially encouraging for Labour, given that YouGov has tended to produce the highest Tory leads of any pollster in recent months – whereas Opinium has tended to produce the lowest.

    Averages for all polls since the start of June 2020:

    Opinium: 3.7 % Av Con lead (12 polls)
    YouGov 6.7 % Av Con lead (10 polls, including today’s )
    The Rest: 5.7 % Av Con lead (33 polls )

  38. Good morning all.

    It’s been a while to say the least, but I have occasionally looked in. Since the 2019 election, and Covid,

    What a time it is. Events since Brexit have been a deluge of events that are radically transformative politically, socially and economically. All the traditional landmarks that we all use assess where are have been trashed and ripped up.

    Maybe all these transformation will work out for the better in the end – it’s work in progress.

    I hope everyone is well and healthy, and have managed to deal all these upheavals in a positive way.

    @Colin

    I suspect the Boris is waiting for the conclusion of Brexit at the end of this year. Given events and his health, I’m not surprised he’s spent as PM.

    I think when PMs are that worn out, for the good of the their own health and the country, stepping back is the best thing to do.

  39. Correction

    Good morning all.

    It’s been a while to say the least, but I have occasionally looked in. Since the 2019 election, and Covid, it has been a big time of reflection.

    What a time it is. Events since Brexit have been a deluge of events that are radically transformative politically, socially and economically. All the traditional landmarks that we all use assess where are have been trashed and ripped up.

    Maybe all these transformation will work out for the better in the end – it’s work in progress.

    I hope everyone is well and healthy, and have managed to deal all these upheavals in a positive way.

    @Colin

    I suspect the Boris is waiting for the conclusion of Brexit at the end of this year. Given events and his health, I’m not surprised he’s spent as PM.

    I think when PMs are that worn out, for the good of the their own health and the country, stepping back is the best thing to do.

  40. CAN

    Nice to see you here again.

    I hope you are correct.

  41. Next PM odds (ranges):

    Starmer 5/4 to 2/1
    Sunak 5/2 to 10/3
    Gove 6/1 to 10/1
    Raab 12/1 to 16/1
    Hunt 14/1 to 22/1
    Patel 16/1 to 30/1

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

  42. It seems like the right wing press have been turning on Johnson this week so could be a reason why we have this neck and neck poll.

    As yet, the appointment of their chum (Dido Harding) hasn’t quite come through yet in terms of tabloid populism. A Cummings in opposition would have been all over this linking failure of an individual to government policy.

    It was a job that she might possibly have had the expertise to run given she has run big organisations in the past, but clearly was not an expert in this field and has failed to anticipate fairly obvious things such as demand for testing rising due to schools and the rest of the economy re-opening. Sage had a list of R number increases due to different loosening of restrictions so very predictable and should have been planned for either by more tests or by prioritising certain groups (only now being considered when the plan B should have been ready to roll out at the first hint of trouble).

    Radio silence on whether the contracts with private companies had any penalties for failing to reach targets on testing or tracing.

  43. Hello Catman!

    Missed your green input and stats etc!

    Hope all is well (and that maybe the homeschooling has been handy during lockdown?)

  44. @Carfrew

    Hi :)

    From our personal family perspective, as a family who home-schools and keeps ourselves to ourselves, lockdown was no major trauma at all.

    Also, I now work from home three days out of five, so have reduced my commuting miles and subsequent pollution from about 375 to 150 miles.

    I’ve gained back about 6 hours a week I used to spend sat in traffic on the M62.

    That’s a positive !

  45. @ CMJ

    Nice to see you back. You’ll be pleased to know that since you’ve been away I’ve finally found a vegan cheese that actually tastes like cheese- ironically Morrissons own brand! So the one thing I was missing has now been sorted but I had to apologise to the wife because when she ordered it I’d told her it was waste of time and money because none of them are any good :-)

  46. It is now time to admit that Covid is causing serious havoc to the economy – and certain parts in particular like hospitality, travel and city life – and we have no idea when or how the havoc will end. If it does.

    We do not have the capacity to deal with Covid and even the best Brexit at the end of this year, let alone a WTO type Brexit.

    We need a Brexit extension of at least one year whilst we see how Covid develops.

    But that is too obvious so Johnson won’t do it…

  47. Jack
    Two years was on offer in march.
    Flat out rejected by the Spaffer Cummings regime.

  48. @Catman

    That’s good to hear. It looks like homeschooling is gaining in popularity now since Covid, but you’re ahead of the curve!

  49. Alec,
    “My own area had high cases in April May. We’re now back into partial lockdown, because we’ve got high cases”

    nowhere in the uk has high cases now. If you had the same as now in april, then it wasn’t high then either.

    Are you making the mistake of believing official cases numbers?

    Steve,
    “Two years was on offer in march.
    Flat out rejected by the Spaffer Cummings regime”

    That because after a year of covid the public mood would have been to cancel brexit.

  50. @Danny

    “Are you making the mistake of believing official cases numbers?”

    You genuinely do have a superiority complex. Worrying

1 95 96 97 98

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)