Sky News have released a new YouGov poll of Labour party members and affiliated supporters for the leadership election. First preferences for leader stand at STARMER 53%, LONG BAILEY 31%, NANDY 16%. While on these figures Starmer would narrowly win on first preferences anyway, if you reallocate Nandy’s votes the final preferences would be STARMER 66%, LONG BAILEY 34%.

Compared to the previous YouGov poll conducted in January Long Bailey’s support is almost unchanged, while Nandy and Starmer are up 8 and 7 points respectively, presumably largely due to picking up the preferences of those who previously supported Jess Philips or Emily Thornberry. This is the first poll to include voters from affiliated trade unionists – Starmer’s support is slightly higher among affiliates than full members, increasing his lead slightly.

Looking through the demographic breakdowns Starmer leads among all age groups, among both men and women, and across all regions (though his lead is bigger in the South than the North, and bigger among older members). The most notable demographic difference continues to be in terms of social grade, with Starmer only having a lead of 4 points among C2DE respondents. The other interesting, if not wholly surprising difference is by length of membership – those people who joined the Labour party during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership are more likely to support Rebecca Long Bailey, those who joined before 2015 or have joined since the 2019 election are far more likely to support Starmer.

The poll also suggests a clear winner in the deputy leadership contest. First round preferences are RAYNER 47%, BURGON 19%, ALLIN-KHAN 13%, BUTLER 12%, MURRAY 9%, with RAYNER likely to pass the fifty-percent mark once Ian Murray’s votes are redistributed. Redistributing all the votes would give a final round of RAYNER 73%, BURGON 27%.

Full tables are here.

1,735 Responses to “YouGov poll of Labour members shows Starmer & Rayner ahead”

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  1. robin,
    “5,000 ICU beds.
    10% of cases requiring hospitalisation (possibly an under-estimate)”

    no. that’s if at risk groups catch it. the government will be banking on the very large majority self treating at home. I saw a news clip from Italy showing people being treated in a warehouse…but if you looked they were completely fit enough to look after themsemselves. I’d assume they were in some sort of quarantine.

    But as I said, whether this strategy works or not, the only way brexit can proceed is if the epidemic is over in the uk and there is no chance of a recurrence. if excess people do end up dying, they will have fued in the cause of brexit. and statistically for once, the risk reflects the likelihood to have voted for brexit.

  2. “And what else do we have to do when we’re in lockdown?”


  3. From the Telegraph…

    Boris Johnson puts industry on war footing to equip NHS for coronavirus battle ahead

    Manufacturers will be asked to make their production lines available to help deliver ventilators to hospitals

    Edward Malnick,
    14 March 2020 • 10:00pm

    “Boris Johnson is putting British industry on a war footing to help deliver the equipment that the NHS needs to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

    In an unprecedented peacetime call to arms, the Prime Minister is asking manufacturers including Rolls Royce and JCB to transform their current production lines to help produce ventilators as part of a “national effort” to tackle the virus.

    As ten more patients in the UK died from Covid-19, doubling the current death toll, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, declares in an article for The Sunday Telegraph that “our generation has never been tested like this”.

    He urges the country to pull together like it did during the Second World War, and says firms “cannot make too many” ventilators – which the Government will commit to purchasing.

    Last night Unipart Group, which currently manufactures precision parts for the NHS and has been in urgent talks with the Government about producing ventilators, revealed that it already had “a lot of talented people already working at a great speed on this.”

    The intervention came amid a race by Governments across Europe to purchase ventilators following warnings that current stocks will fall far short of the numbers needed to help patients who fall critically ill.”

  4. “Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, announced that they would publish the computer modelling on which the Government is basing its response to the outbreak, following demands for independent experts to be able to analyse the data

    Julian Jessop, a senior forecaster, warned that Britain is facing a 6 per cent drop in GDP in the coming months – the size of the fall in an entire year during the financial crisis.”

  5. I’m not claiming to understand all the issues regarding coronavirus and all its implications regarding peoples lives the economy.


    after reading all the posts on it I’m tending to side on the TREVS argument more.
    I want this thing over personally (ie if I’m getting it then get on with it so I can get on with life). Though it does scare the cr*p out of me as I might not come out the other side (I’m pretty sure I’m not in one the at-risk groups, just me being a coward)

    I don’t like sticking up for a Tory government (and there 10 years of underfunding the NHS is coming to bite them on the ar**), I hate them, but this has to be really hard for them to know which way to turn if even experts can’t agree.

    I don’t want to fall out with anyone on here about it, people are dying and by the looks, thousands more are going to die.

  6. My daughter-in-law is a Singaporean and a consultant medical doctor. I suspect the Singaporean part of her identity is the more important influence on her advice to me as an 82 year-old person at risk. This is as follows:

    1) Stop babysitting for your grandchildren and convert all your family, social and business contacts into virtual ones. That gives you the best chance of mental and physical survival.
    2) Carry on walking as it is good for you but have two sets of clothes, one for indoors and one for outdoors. As soon as you come in from outdoors, wash your hands and face, have a shower and change into your indoor clothes.
    3) Have fresh clothes everyday and clean all door handles, taps, light switches and surface with an antiseptic solution.
    4) Totally reverse the disgusting, insanitary habits that you have somehow survived for 82 years and become sweet smelling, and tidy, even if, unfortunately, no one will be there to smell you.

    Well she didn’t actually say the latter – the Singaporeans are very respectful towards the old – but I suspect she felt it. I am not sure how far I am going to follow this advice but I pass it on to those who may be interested..

  7. charles, and anyone else. .

    I would remind everyone that the pass on rate for this disease is only maybe 3. which means someone only managed to pass it to three others. which must be while they are most likely to do so, with some disease but still going about their lives. so even with normal contact, no precautions, it is quite difficult to pass it on.

    sure take extra steps. but it is quite hard to catch.

  8. Danny, if its so hard to catch why such a fuss?

  9. People may be interested in proportions of deaths in different age groups.
    The Italian figures (excluding those under 40) are

    40-49 0.3%
    50-59 0.8%
    60-69 10.4%
    70-79 31.9%
    80+ 56,6%

    These figures are clearly very different from those for the age distribution, and the distribution of those catching the illness and I suspect that they are also different from those for those admitted to hospital (Age is correlated with survival there as well).

    That said, I think that Pete and perhaps even the government are right. The logical thing to do is to take the hit among those people who are going to survive i.e. more or less everyone under 60 unless they have a pretty severe medical condition and do so as quickly as possible. Unless, however we do something pretty drastic about those over 70 our medical services are going to be overwhelmed, and there will be lots of unnecessary deaths, not only among those over 70 but also among many of those under 70 who will not be getting treatment they need. A second strand in this strategy would need to be that carers and NHS staff are protected by all means possible, and a determined effort is made to get them all the equipment they need.


    @”Err, pot, kettle and black?”

    :-) :-)

  11. @Charles – consistent data from Italy also indicates 4 times as many male deaths as female. No one yet know why.

    Sorry about that, but do please follow you daughter in laws advice.

  12. Charles,
    Flippant, I know, but the answer seems to be to stand in the shower for a few months.

  13. @Statgeek – “Maths will not solve any of this. Maths cannot predict if an infected person will walk into Supermarket ‘x’ or ‘y’, or will stay at home. My 74 year old mother, who is probably in the upper end of risk scale is adamant that she’s going on her night out tonight, and will travel to Spain later in the year, come what may.”

    Mrs A dug out an old copy of the New Scientist last week. It was a special issue from last year, dedicated to looking at what science can do and what are it’s weaknesses.

    There was a lengthy and detailed article on behavioural science, which concluded that this is one branch of statistical science that cannot really be described as a true science, because it was so deeply flawed and with limited evidence of a replicable methodology.

    The article cited a number of reasons why behavioural science was not sufficiently robust to serve as a predictive policy tool with specific reference to public policy development. One principle drawback was the variety of character types and how small variations in population make up can radically alter outcomes.

    Patient 31 in South Korea is a perfect illustration of this. A sick woman in her fifties, advised not once but twice by medics to allow them to test her but refused on each occasion. Instead, she attended two religious services as part of a weird cult that believes it’s a great thing to pack the church so it’s standing room only as part of the religious experience.

    She was responsible for anything up to half of the countries initial cases, with over 2,000 individual contacts traced back to her.

    Without one stupid person, it’s quite likely that South Korea would have been on top of this by now.

  14. Pass on rate of three?

    So if one person passes it to three people on day one, and they pass it on to three on day two and so on, we get to 10.5 billion on day 22…

    …but only 3.5 billion on day 21, so it’s crucial for uninfected to stay indoors sometime during the first three weeks. :D

    Looking at the wiki page, and omitting countries with less than 500 recorded cases, sorted by deaths to cases percentage (Country: cases; deaths; %):

    Italy: 21,157; 1,441; 6.81%
    Iran: 12,729; 611; 4.80%
    China (mainland): 80,849; 3,199; 3.96%
    Worldwide (138 countries): 157,120; 5,840; 3.72%
    Spain: 6,392; 197; 3.08%
    Japan: 825; 22; 2.67%
    France: 4,500; 91; 2.02%
    United States: 3,043; 60; 1.97%
    United Kingdom: 1,140; 21; 1.84%
    Netherlands: 959; 12; 1.25%
    Diamond Princess (ship): 697; 7; 1.00%
    Switzerland: 1,375; 13; 0.95%
    South Korea: 8,162; 75; 0.92%
    Belgium: 689; 4; 0.58%
    Norway: 1,111; 3; 0.27%
    Sweden: 961: 2; 0.21%
    Germany: 4,585: 9; 0.20%
    Austria: 800; 1: 0.13%
    Denmark: 836; 1: 0.12%

    Of course none of the data and ratios takes into account population, ratio of elderly in each country, and general health. Mrs Statgeek discussed the difference between cases to deaths of UK vs Germany in that list, and that Germany’s over 80s were born or were children during the 1930s, and said people might be of hardier stock due to:

    – parents surviving 1918 flu epidemic, and the depression in Germany
    – being raised with the hard knocks and improved diets of the 1933-1945 era
    – just surviving said era, etc.

    Or maybe there are just less of them due to said era’s events, and possibly the whole East/West Germany issues that followed. Perhaps Germany’s cases are more younger people, and less older.

    Are the elderly in Germany better cared for? Is general healthcare better? Are they more healthy on average?

    Perhaps a better comparison is France vs Germany. Similar cases, although France has 80% the population, but France has ten times the deaths!

  15. I’m 72 and Mrs SDA is 67.

    Under a policy of over 70’s isolating, I have to stay indoors, but Mrs SDA can wander forth. Mmmmmm

    Then we have two hairy dogs (bearded collies), where does living with and/or grooming them come in the disease transmission scene?

    Funnily enough, one of the beardies has mobility issues and to avoid him attempting to climb the stairs Mrs SDA has been sleeping on our sofa bed for the last few weeks, so we isolate at night anyway.

  16. All essential workers (doctors, nurses, police, army, fire, lorry drivers, water workers etc) need to be split into groups of 4 (hopefully voluntarily)

    each group is given the virus one at a time (group one week one, group 2 3 weeks later etc)(most will get it anyway), so that the first group can become a skeleton crew if/when sh*t hits the fan and keep the country running. 2 nd group gets better and skeleton crew gets bigger, and so on.

    Or something like this.

  17. I guess one upside of us old codgers (i.e. over 70s) being told not to go out is that we won’t need so much soap!

  18. Good morning all from a damp and mild Winchester.

    Woooff the panic buying out there is real. Not long back from the main Sainsbury’s store in area and the amount of shopping people were buying was quite astonishing.

    This country would be fooked if it ever came under a military attack. I’m sure our armed forces would be up to the task but the civilian population would simply crumple.

    You see it over Christmas, shops closed for 12 hours and we go into meltdown,

    As for asking the over 70’s to self isolate for up to 4 months….Great idea..It would free up the roads around here (they bloody Sunday drivers with the wee wobbly dog thing on the parcel shelve!!) and would also free up public transport for people getting to work, especially those who use buses as the old buggers get free travel.

    Lock them up I say…Sorry Granny & Grandpa but I need my road space.

  19. @ CHARLES – We are not TOTALLY in the dark but for sure, we don’t know absolutely everything about this specific virus – only an !diot would assume we do and a only a complete and total !diot would try to misrepresent any of the actual experts (eg Vallance and Whitty) who have given us a lot of information on what THEY know about how this virus works.

    However, we do know a LOT and this virus (and viruses in general) and that knowledge will increase as we obtain more hard data. We also do know that maths is the purest science.

    The ‘variables’ that go into the mathematical models are ‘estimates’ – not guesses. The better the estimate the more accurate the model will be BUT several of the variables[1] depend on govt response and how people respond (individually and en mass).

    I’ve explained the MATHS side and repeatedly stated the above and hope that unlike some posters you can see that not everything is black or white BUT that, given the “knowns” that we do “know” we are not totally in the dark.

    [1] Specifically the R0. Which is better seen as “E”xposure to the virus (which can be influenced) and “p”robability of transmission (where the basics like hand washing are so important)

    @ OLDNAT – “Herd” immunity was always a terrible term and Vallance is not a politician. Whether or not it was a “goal” it is the eventual mathematical outcome once you move from “contain” to “delay”. COLIN gave the maths info a few days back but its fairly easy to find on google I’m sure (although clearly not everyone in interested in the maths, fortunately Vallance is!)

    If folks think we can put the genie back in the bottle then they need to be honest about what that would mean – specifically how we get back to ‘contain’ via contact tracing given the likely number of actual cases we now have, how long lockdown measures would need to last and what the broader implications would be (eg how many businesses are going to go under, the mental health issues of isolation measures, would people adhere to lockdown (and what consequences if they don’t) etc)

    It’s easy to say someone is WRONG but any alternative plan has is reliant on a host of assumptions that Vallance+co have clearly considered. Within the ‘flexible’ plan announced almost two weeks ago different measures will be applied when the time is RIGHT.

  20. Shut Up & Keep Out of Sight!
    @ Oldnat
    “Any word about England, or does that have to wait till someone pays the English Education Secretary to write an article?”

    G. Williamson has read yr post & gives you the same advice as he did to Putin. “Shut up & go away!”. Cummings has probably told incompetent ministers like Williamson & Patel to “Shut up & keep out of sight”..
    There is something to be said for confining the day-to-day commentary to certain key ministers.

    As in the 2008 when Brown & Darling, those two marvellous, incomparable, & revered Scottish politicians, acted as a twin dictatorship during the banking crisis.

  21. Silliest Headline on Social Distancing

    “If coronavirus has a silver lining, it should be the return of the bow and the curtsy.”
    Danial Hannan, a right-wing, arch Brexiteer, as if you hadn’t guessed!.

  22. I’m hearing full lockdown is coming wed. Army on the streets? Probably just rumours but it would be nice if the government got a handle on rumours straight away.

  23. Further evidence that the UK Government needs to get a grip on its communications strategy

    No 10 sources ( Cummings ) have been using Peston ( principally) to trail information about the UK Government’s approach including “herd immunity” and imminent isolation of the over 70s etc. Hancock has now denied that “herd immunity” is part of the strategy and says that isolation of the over 70s will be considered in the future.

    Hancock said yesterday that the UK Government was discussing with Rolls Royce the repurposing of its facilities and supply chains to produce ventilators. Rolls Royce say they have had no discussions.

    The UK Government should stop trailing information anonymously to selected journalists and replace it with clear, factually correct open briefings which clearly state what people should and should not be doing now.

  24. @ CARFREW – We will certainly take an economic hit. That aspect of the challenge we face is to ensure it is a “V” type hit.

    This is obviously very different to the financial crisis but if we could bail out the banks and 100% of the bank deposits of the rich then we can certainly ensure viable businesses get the help they need to get through this.

    Of note, then clearly the peak and length of the distribution of the actual virus impact will be a bit of a mirror image (with a time lag) of the economic impact – specifically a measure of GDP.

    In aggregate of course, some business will need more help than others (eg airlines) and a few won’t need any financial help at all, although they might need some extra resources and experience a “hangover” type effect at a later date (eg toilet roll or ventilator manus)

  25. PETE
    I’m hearing full lockdown is coming wed. Army on the streets? Probably just rumours but it would be nice if the government got a handle on rumours straight away.

    If the virus is that bad and more and more office workers are being told to work from home then if it’s bad enough for us who work in an office environment to work from home then what about those who are on 8.21 an hour working in shops being told to come into work?

    60k office worker told to work from home…Goes into supermarket on way home…sneezes over worker on 8.21 an hour..He/she falls ill..Worried about paying billts etc so still comes into work.

    Meanwhile 60k office worker sitting at home tapping away at a computer drinking wine has no care in the World..

    If some parts of the workforce are being told to stay at home then we all stay at home and let the armed forces with all the protection gear on look after us all by door to door food & supply deliveries.

    For 8.21 an hour I would be telling my employers to go f##k themselves if I found out those at head office were told to stay at home.

  26. @ CHARLES – Vallance + everyone involved in the research effort to understand MORE about COVID-19 will be following the data.

    This site is a bit out of date on the sample size of ‘demographic’ data but does show that we “know” a lot about this virus already:

    “Separating (segregating) the ‘herd'” is a terrible term I admit but clearly even from the ‘capacity’ side then keeping the more at risk demographics away from the ‘main’ herd makes obvious sense.

    The questions then are “for how long” and with what “consequences” (many of which we can at least anticipate in advance and where possible take pre-emptive measures)

    NB Someone mentioned universities being on the ‘capacity’ list y’day and in that regard then possibly the idea is more along the lines of an ‘isolation town’. Cocoons can be individual or clusters – but you can’t break the cocoon (you’re either inside it or outside it)

    PS It is a balancing act for govt to release all the ideas they might have and when to release the info. You want the “right” level of “awareness” (not mass panic buying etc, but enough ‘fear’ to ensure folks at least wash hands and stick the advice they are getting)

    It’s difficult to shut down some of the utter rubbish or misunderstandings when MSM, etc go for short headline quotes and often deliberately seek to misrepresent what has actually been said – so often better to not give out “possible scenarios, if/when we get to that point” (eg the possible scenario that over the Summer then unis might be a good place to set up ‘isolation towns’). Please note that is NOT a prediction in any way – it is just an awareness of the issues (from the potential demand and supply constraint side)

  27. Apparently Mexico is asking Trump to hurry up with the wall.

  28. New Thread !!

  29. AC
    Your faith in the UK armed forces is touching but at full strength there are just 190,000 of them. With overseas deployments and forces that need to remain in post, I’d say that at max you’re talking 100,000 available, maybe substantially less as they’d be getting infected too.

    That’s a 650:1 ratio to the population. Not really helpful, except maybe in hot spots.

    By contrast the NHS has 1.2m staff, a ratio of 54:1. Though whether that includes the extra nurses that aren’t really extra isn’t clear.

  30. If a few airlines go out of business, that should lead to increased fares (less competition) which will lead to fewer people aimlessly flying round the world, which will lead to less emissions and carbon. People can get used to video conferencing and virtual holidays around the world, with one of those headsets on.

    If there is a silver lining, that is it.

    And before people get carried away about deaths from the virus, a couple of facts.
    99% of us who are age 65 now will be dead anyway, inside 30 years. Flu and pneumonia kills thousands every year and nobody bats an eyelid and thousands die on the roads every year and nobody proposes banning cars, or closing motorways.

    So we do need to retain some perspective.

  31. pete,
    “’m hearing full lockdown is coming wed. Army on the streets? Probably just rumours but it would be nice if the government got a handle on rumours straight away.”

    so is that one soldier for every ten streets?

  32. “Before people get carried away about deaths from the Black Plague, a couple of facts. The average life expectancy for a mediæval European was about thirty years. That means that everyone who died from the plague would have been dead in a few years anyway. So we do need to retain some perspective.”

    I wonder if self-important know-it-alls ever listen to what comes out of their mouths?

  33. The UK strategy has clearly moved from let’s not scare the horses and spook the economy to a rapid realisation that only containment and eradication will be acceptable.

    As the rest of the world is doing.

    This has been on the cards for years. A sneeze in London / Beijing / New York is carried across the globe in a few hours by our obsession with travelling in flying inoculation chambers.

    Antiviral therapy hopefully offers hope for the worst affected, but needs to be hand in hand with rapid testing.

  34. @JIB

    I think this was obvious form the get go. My parents are from Sierra Leon and they have suffered ebola and that was deadly across all age groups. I think that the head of WHO who was insisting on testing tracing and isolation had the strategy correct after all they deal with these thing consistently and continuously.

    I personally was surprised that the idea of herd immunity came up. Just in voke Godwins Law the black death was a key example of herd immunity those that had it survived were fine but it meant that there was lots of people that had it and died

    As many people on this site are retired and often in the high risk groups but would suffer the triage of not getting a ventilator relying on that specific approach was in my mind madness (dare I say close to invading Iraq)

  35. @JIB

    I think this was obvious form the get go. My parents are from Sierra Leon and they have suffered ebola and that was deadly across all age groups. I think that the head of WHO who was insisting on testing tracing and isolation had the strategy correct after all they deal with these thing consistently and continuously.

    I personally was surprised that the idea of herd immunity came up. Just in voke Godwins Law the black death was a key example of herd immunity those that had it survived were fine but it meant that there was lots of people that had it and died

    As many people on this site are retired and often in the high risk groups but would suffer the triage of not getting a ventilator relying on that specific approach was in my mind madness (dare I say close to invading Iraq)

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