It is the eve of the election and I’ll be rounding up the final call polls here as they come in.

YouGov already released their final call prediction last night in the form of their updated MRP projection. The voting intentions in the model were CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. As an MRP, it also included projected numbers of seats, with the Conservatives winning 339, Labour 231, SNP 41, Liberal Democrats 15, Plaid 4 and the Greens 1. Fieldwork was the 4th to the 10th, but the model gives more weight to the more recent data. The full details of the model are here.

ICM also released their final poll yesterday, with topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was conducted Sunday to monday, and full tables are here.

Opinium‘s final voting intention figures are CON 45%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 2%, GRN 2%. The Conservatives have a twelve point lead (though in their write up Opinium point out that this is because the Tory shares has been rounded up and Labour’s share rounded down, so before rounding it was actually an 11 point lead). In recent weeks Opinium have tended to show the biggest leads for the Conservatives, so this reflects a slight narrowing since their previous poll. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday, so would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story on Monday. Full tables are here

BMG‘s final figures are CON 41%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%. Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and doesn’t show any change since BMG’s figures last week.

Panelbase‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%, GRN 3%. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday so, like Opinium, would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story (though unlike Opinium, Panelbase don’t show any tightening since their previous poll). Full tables are here.

Matt Singh’s NCPolitics have conducted a final poll on behalf of Bloomberg. That has final figures of CON 43%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. Their full tables are here.

There was also a poll by Qriously (a company that does polls in smartphone adverts, who is a member of the BPC). Fieldwork for that was conducted Thursday to Sunday, and had topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 30%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 4%. Details are here

SavantaComRes have final figures of CON 41%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday. The five point lead is the lowest any company has given the Conservatives during the campaign, and would likely be in hung Parliament territory (though ComRes have typically given some of the lower Tory leads). Full tables are here.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 44%, LAB 32%, LDEM 13%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday. The twelve point lead is unchanged from Kantar’s last poll, though the Lib Dems have fallen a little. Full results are here.

Deltapoll‘s final poll CON 45%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was also Monday to Wednesday. Full results are here.

Survation published their final call overnight. Topline figures there are CON 44.5%, LAB 33.7%, LDEM 9.3%, BREX 3.1%. Their poll also included an oversized sample for Scotland, to provide seperate Scottish figures – they were SNP 43.2%, CON 27.9%, LAB 19.8%, LDEM 7.3%. Full details are here.

Finally, Ipsos MORI published their final call in this morning’s Standard. Their final figures are CON 44%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, GRN 3%, BREX 2%. Full tables are here. (And, since people always ask – Ipsos MORI publish on election day because they partner with the Evening Standard, who publish at lunchtime. As you’ll know, it’s illegal to publish an exit poll until after voting stops at 10pm. However, it’s perfectly legal to publish a poll that was conducted before voting began)


3,032 Responses to “Final call election polls”

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  1. OLDNAT

    Thanks again, very cross email winging it’s way.

  2. @PrincessRach

    “Listening to the PM I had to wonder if we actually have a conservative govt, I’ve never heard a PM sound so old labour. Apart from the tougher sentences of course. But saying is one thing, doing is another”

    ———

    Well typically it would have been liberals who would disfavour old labour, rather than Conservatives. Old Labour being rather traditional now, Conservatives might be expected to be comfortable with it, now that the Liberals within the Conservative party have been ousted.

  3. Carfrew
    “You are including occasional contributors there. On some days, there might just be Colin, Howard and Pete B, say.

    And there will be a variance of opinion between them, so they may well not agree on all things so often have to act alone. Pete B is no longer a conservative, for instance. ”

    Thanks for the support. I would say that I am generally conservative, though socially liberal in some areas. It doesn’t mean I automatically vote for the Conservative party though. Indeed I may not have done since 2010 though can’t remember every local election. There are days when I feel a bit beleaguered but I’ve got a thick skin. The main thing that annoys me is when I try to make a joke or lighthearted remark and it’s treated as some kind of manifesto.

  4. Pete B

    Political Compass is located in a considerable range of polities, so the questions vary, as well as the suggested locations of parties on the graphs.

    The statistical basis of allocating people/parties to points on the graph has never (to my knowledge) been satisfactorily explained, so it may be no better than a Readers Digest Quiz!

    _____________________________________________

    For anyone genuinely interested in understanding the Scottish Government’s strategy re indy, I recommend reading today’s statement on “Scotland’s Right to Choose” – but with a historian’s perspective.

    Specifically, that means asking “Which audience(s) does the content and style of the document suggest it is being addressed to?”

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-right-choose-putting-scotlands-future-scotlands-hands/pages/12/

  5. @ ProfHoward

    They still exist. During the election I didn’t want to give a link (I think MOG asked) because it felt to me like the cesspit might migrate over there with all and sundry talking up their own candidates chances and generally lower the quality (I did say it could still be found on an archived post from AW for anyone willing to make the effort)

    Don’t mind so much now and it’s not like it is that much different to the main forum on a better day.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/

  6. Thanks SHEVII.

  7. @carfrew – “And it isn’t victimhood.”

    I never said it was. I expressly excluded your comments.

    @TOH – “That is truly delusional!”

    You may think so, but that would be incorrect.

    Think Trump (and Boris) as they rage against the media, think the Incel movement, think the alt right Great Replacement theory, think Brexiters and the liberal elites.

    Perceived victimhood really is a big thing among the right wing in 2019, on a global basis, and on many different levels. Perhaps you need to get out more?

  8. TOH: I have forgotten most of my chemistry long ago but retain my deep interest in some aspects of botany and am a serious birdwatcher.

    OK, so my example should be someone who goes on a birdwatching site to insist that he’s seen a pelican in a field in Nottinghamshire. Or a botanical recording site to insist that Japanese Knotweed should be called English Knotweed as it’s native.

    That in itself is quite interesting. Could the pelican possibly have stowed away on a ship? Escaped from an aviary? Be an effect of global warming? Or is it a wind-up or delusional?

    Could the second poster have discovered knotweed remnants in a peat deposit dating back 10,000 years?

    If the poster refuses to elaborate, saying in effect, take it or leave it, the interest will die down and he won’t be taken seriously. Especially when the next week he spots a hummingbird in Hampshire.

    What I’m trying to say is that many of your political points are interesting, and worth exploring further, but only if you’re willing to share your reasoning. You won’t do that. For instance, you’ve said that you feel more at home in South America than across the Channel (or words to that effect). That’s very interesting. Is this preference for remote foreigners a cause of your antipathy to the EU, or an effect, or nothing to do with it?

    And your Danish daughter-in-law, whose vote you have shared with us. You’ve hinted she supports your views; is she then in favour of Danxit?

    Those are just examples. There must be lots of interesting stuff lying behind your opinions. We could have some illuminating discussions from which we might both learn. I really do want to understand what lies behind brexiteer and europhobic thinking, and so your apparent espousal of both makes you very interesting. As you say, there have been many such interesting discussions on UKPR. I’ve learnt a lot from them. They wouldn’t have happened if all anyone did here was baldly state their opinions.

  9. “Thanks again, very cross email winging it’s way.”

    He keeps believing, and they keep letting him down.

    Didn’t Einstein say something about the definition of stupidity?

    :) [Joke]

  10. ON
    “The statistical basis of allocating people/parties to points on the graph has never (to my knowledge) been satisfactorily explained, so it [Political Compass] may be no better than a Readers Digest Quiz!”

    I’ve always thought so, but at least it’s a consistent way of comparing folks’ positions. Better than random prejudice. A bit like polls. The absolute position doesn’t matter so much as the relative position.

  11. Referendum Bill passed Holyrood by 68-54 today. It prescribes all the procedural aspects for any referendum to be ordered by the Scottish Parliament.

    It becomes law in 4 weeks unless the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament in this area is challenged by UK Law Officers or the SoS for Scotland and is referred to the UK Supreme Court.

  12. A new series of articles from Tim Harford, a.k.a. The Undercover Economist

    http://timharford.com/articles/cautionarytales/

    You can also listen to them as podcasts.

  13. Colum Eastwood made a great maiden speech for the SDLP. An eloquent speaker indeed.

  14. @Alec

    “I never said it was. I expressly excluded your comments.”

    Indeed you said summat about a “lone stand fighting… the tide of derision”, which of course is entirely different.

    As it happens, there wasn’t much derision, indeed not a great deal of challenging of the argument about the way trade deals can circumvent democracy, it was more a complaint that I hadn’t given more stick to the Atlanticists or tried to find solutions.

    Which was a bit disorienting, a bit like raising the alarm about a raging inferno you just spotted and them berating you for not putting it out and then putting some other fires out as well before warning them.

  15. @Pete B

    “Thanks for the support. I would say that I am generally conservative, though socially liberal in some areas. It doesn’t mean I automatically vote for the Conservative party though. Indeed I may not have done since 2010 though can’t remember every local election. There are days when I feel a bit beleaguered but I’ve got a thick skin. The main thing that annoys me is when I try to make a joke or lighthearted remark and it’s treated as some kind of manifesto.”

    ——–

    I voted Tory once, as it happens. And regarding jokes, I think if you add (joke) in brackets, it’s ok. (That’s what Alec does, and even Somerjohn has never taken issue with it and he’s a stickler for politeness).

  16. Alec

    Perhaps you need to get out more?

    I’m out more than I’m in except in the winter month and i suggest i travelled far more and to more countries than you have.So i think that a rather childish comment

    “He keeps believing, and they keep letting him down.”

    As I often say, happy to wait and see.

    The fact that I lobby my MP quite often just demonstrates that I try to use what little power the ordinary voter has to get the outcome I want rather than just moaning, as the LoC has been doing since the election.

    I am happy to ignore your rather purile attempt at a joke.

  17. @Alec

    “Didn’t Einstein say something about the definition of stupidity?
    :) [Joke]”

    ——

    If you can prove that Einstein said it, which seems to be rather in question.

    But maybe we can deduce it for ourselves. What do you know about his thinking that means he’s likely to have said it?

  18. @Somerjohn

    “What I’m trying to say is that many of your political points are interesting, and worth exploring further, but only if you’re willing to share your reasoning.”

    ——

    I’ve sometimes wondered, are you a Liberal? Just wondered about your reasoning etc.

  19. @PETE B

    Interesting ancedote…..

    @SOMERJOHN

    I think that we confuse Brexit with Rightwing. For example JONESINBANGOR’s view of Brexit is very much different to that of THE OTHER HOWARD.

    TREVOR WARNE collective as it is has even argued that they are Cobyn-lite advocates but again which is again close to how I suspect JONESINBANGOR would view politics (LoC)

    The point is Brexit as combined people who have adamantly opposite views of where brexit should take us allied because brexit is seen as either a catalyst for something else or because of a common euro-scepticism. PETE B as another person who some might characterise as RoC and an brexit supporter has said he never has voted for the Tories I believe to

    So I think there is a lot of nuance, and I have seen during my time on this site people change their views on austerity, and spending in marked fashion as an example.

    I have also found it interesting as the one occasion when a set of people proffered why they supported the invasion of Iraq. What was scary was that it crossed those that could be classed as LoC and those that could be classed a RoC.

    For me it is interesting to find out why you believe X. Often the why is more a interesting

  20. @Somerjohn

    “As you say, there have been many such interesting discussions on UKPR. I’ve learnt a lot from them. They wouldn’t have happened if all anyone did here was baldly state their opinions.”

    ————

    Well that might refer to the more agreeable stuff. You know, where, say, I can chat to folk like Howard about stuff where instead of pursuing disagreement, we can discuss something more positive, like music or conservation where one isn’t constantly trying to constantly prove them wrong or poorly motivated etc.

  21. Somerjohn

    I am ending the conversation now, I think we are boring the others on this site and we have had the same discussion so many times. Just accept that I will continue to post the way I do and if you don’t like it, don’t read my posts.You see I really don’t care if you think it makes them of less value.

    I would also suggest I have shared more about myself and how I tick, over the years than most. I did again today, explaining how I found it possible to make people redundant with a clear conscience and no regrets at decisions taken, whilst doing my best to minimise the adverse effects on those affected.

    Finally I notice that you avoided my reference as to the purpose of this site. It is not a debating society, as confirmed in the past by AW. I am happy to continue to fully engage on polling and what the polls are saying.

  22. Somerjohn

    If someone prefers not to justify their stance, leave it at that, but perhaps evaluate them on that basis.

    ToH

    While we agree on some things (and no doubt disagree on more!) I find it useful to see from your comments (as from many others on here) expressions of opinion that I wouldn’t hear otherwise.

    —————————————————-
    I find it helpful in this complex world to see lots of opinions (and give my own). You learn nothing new in an echo chamber.

  23. “I think that we confuse Brexit with Rightwing”

    ——-

    Indeed Brexit can be very left wing, that’s why many in old Labour had issues with it as opposed to the Third Way Liberals who took over Labour. The EU is not left wing, it’s a Liberal project, Free trade, Free Movement etc. whereas Socialism intends to protect against the ravages of free trade.

  24. CARFREW

    You have set me off, I remembered our discussion on the Leningrad Symphony, so relentless!!

    My wife and I listened to it again last Saturday, wonderful stuff.

  25. Carfrew: I’ve sometimes wondered, are you a Liberal? Just wondered about your reasoning etc.

    What’s a Liberal?

    That’s note a (joke), but reflecting the fact that Liberal seems to mean different things to different people. You, I think, see it as more or less neø-liberal.

    I don’t really fit comfortably into any political box. I’m certainly socially liberal. Economically, definitely not neø-liberal. Politically, if the choice is socialist, conservative or liberal, then it would have to be liberal. So, put me down as a pragmatic centrist small-l liberal keynesian europhile who accepts the mixed economy and rejects extremes of either flavour.

  26. OLDNAT

    Thanks, entirely fair comment.

  27. Good Evening all after a productive day of running in the rain, as I prepare to run past Notre Dame in Paris in April on the Marathon.

    on the topic of liberalism and conservative (lower case), the Labour Party used to have many small see conservatives. They were in tune with the workers’ majority.

    The English and Union Flags, Armed Forces, National Pride and Traditions were part of what Martin Pugh calls Tory Socialism in his History of the Labour Party. Well worth a read,

    Chuter Ede, Herbert Mofrrison, Ernest Bevin, Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and Denis Healey epitomised social conservatism.

    Attlee, an upper middle class public school boy, fought alongside working men in the Gallipoli campaign and then worked in the East End of London for decades. He knew that the ‘white working class’ woman and man was generally conservative.

    IMO many of us feel looked down upon by the modern liberal left and it will be interesting to see whether the current Labour Party is able to genuinely connect with its traditional base outside of the cities and the university towns. Somehow I doubt it.

    I think that these people, from whom my parents came, used to see themselves as Labour rather than Socialist and Radical.

  28. Alec

    “As they rage against the media,”

    Really, The only people raging against the media seem to be Corbyn and the Labour party who blame the media and Brexit for the loss of the election.

    I certainly would not say they were RoC would you?

  29. @CARFREW

    That’s a typically liberal, globalist argument, focused on selling more product.

    In the US, the right have issues with all this, they see that the promotion of liberalism by business and politicians as a way of breaking down traditional structures and family units to render people more pliable and willing to buy more product.

    So I thought you would have hears this about L’Oreal. The conflict you describe below is interesting a points back to my Ghettoisation monologue

    The big point of L’Oreal was that they had saturated their market. Black people were not in their sights because they were black. The market for black people was always their. Indeed it was a way for black people to become successful. As I said the view of barbershop/hairshop culture in the US and the even in the UK is something since it is often the one thing a black person could get a loan to start a business for

    L’Oreal broke into a market that was often owned by black people serviced by black people and with products bought by black people. They did so by targeting black people. Afrosheen did not need to get Serena Williams to sell their product it was in the market by word of mouth. L’Oreal saw this and broke into it.

    Conservatives might be more concerned with what they see as social cohesion, and to hell with the profits of cosmetics firms. As a child of immigrants myself I’m kinda stuck between the two views and going “WTF?!” a lot.

    Again I think it is more nuanced than that. I point to the fact that what is seen as normal, normative. Conservatives think they are normal and everything else is abnormal. How you define cohesion varies. A conservative gay person thinks himself as normal and conservative christian see themselves as normal and the gay as not. You can see the conflict play out in the Tory party when half of the party opposed Gay marriage. Yet their Scottish leader at the time not only availing herself of this but going to the PM may at the time to push for reassurance after the DUP was brought into a C&S arrangement.

    So what is social cohesion? when is difference a problem?
    Does being gay break social cohesion, hell does being an immigrant?

    The scary thing about L’Oreal was actually they believed in a form of social cohesion that basically promoted exclusion. On the one hand it created opportunity for black business or the other for black own businesses to have so little opportunity speaks for itself. The converse is that big and powerful can always trump small

    I understand your WTF(?)

  30. @ToH

    Yes I enjoyed the convo about Shostakovich! I’ve enjoyed reading exchanges you’ve had with others about music too.

    I must get to see some more classical music, I’m usually in the realms of Jazz and funk. A particular regret is that they did the ring cycle where I live a couple of years ago and I regret not going now and taking my partner, who’s never seen the Opera.

  31. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Wellington said this after Waterloo:

    Believe me, nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won: the bravery of my troops hitherto saved me from the greater evil; but to win such a battle as this of Waterloo, at the expense of so many gallant friends, could only be termed a heavy misfortune but for the result to the public.

    He had success, important success too, but he was also filled with regret. My point is there is an absolutism regarding your comment, that I do not share, even if it is the only course of action to affect someone negatively should give at least pause for thought. Or maybe I reading too much into all of this.

  32. @Somerjohn

    “What’s a Liberal?

    That’s note a (joke), but reflecting the fact that Liberal seems to mean different things to different people.

    You, I think, see it as more or less neø-liberal.”

    ———–

    No, that’s a very fair question. There are indeed different versions of Liberalism as BFR schooled me on a while back. The consequences of this are quite significant I have discovered, I’ve been meaning to do a post on it.

    Yes it’s clear you’re not n3o1b, but sounds like maybe more Ordoliberal, the EU variant of Liberalism, where they see the state as having the role of ensuring a level playing field rather than being more active in the market.

    It derives in part from the desire to avoid state involvement on subsidies etc, that they feel helped lead to runaway economic compettion and WW2, a particular worry of the Germans. Another worry of the Germans was of course hyperinflation, which is where the idea of an independent EU central bank and 2% inflation target comes in, something of course which New Labour also embraced as soon as they took office.

  33. Somerjohn

    “So, put me down as a pragmatic centrist small-l liberal keynesian europhile”

    Just how I always imagined you.

  34. The blame game seems to be an interesting concept an somewhat contradictory. For instance Labour tend to get blamed for things which the Tories are actually responsible for. Yet where the reverse is true voters seem to turn a blind eye.#

    Examples are:
    1) Austerity – Local Governments have cut back in many areas due restriction in Government funding. It seems Labour lost support in some Northern areas (Leigh) in part due to the local councils making cuts and the voters blaming the local council rather than the central government. Yet in areas where the Tory Councils made cuts voters continued to back the Tories.
    2) Financial Crisis 2008 – Labour blamed for this with the narrative it was all caused by the economic policy of Labour when it was caused by Sub Prime crisis in US. We know if the Tories had been in power in 2000’s the policies would have led to the same outcome.
    3) Liberalism – Labour as mentioned above get could shoulder from some more old fashioned voters socially conservative voters when the Tories have this element in the party too. The Tories have managed to appeal to voters still in the south which have more socially liberal attitudes whilst appealing to voters in some Northern and midland areas.

    In short the perception is that Tories will be Tories so don’t expect no different. But they see Labour as making promises and then being not much different to the Tories when in power.

  35. PROF HOWARD

    The NI Health Service is the worst performing of health services in the UK. On the other hand, the professionals who head the Service wish to follow the path of Scotland, the best performing health service in the UK. That means addressing health inequalities and the redistribution of power, income and wealth.

    I was under the impression that Edwin Poots accepted that. Now, it seems it is much more a matter of structural reform that is needed which I take to mean saving money.

    Such structural change (assuming it happens) is likely to happen while Ireland is restructuring its own health service. The Irish and NI services overlap. People in the North are regularly referred to Dublin for heart surgery. People in Donegal frequently use the A and E service in a Derry hospital.

    Meanwhile, in NHS England this is happening.

    https://www.itv.com/hub/the-dirty-war-on-the-nhs/2a5959

    I doubt if many in NI are fully aware of all these influences on NI ‘ s health service. It seems to me that addressing health inequalities is the most important influence. Scottish research concludes 40% of its health budget is spent on interventions that are avoidable and that addressing health inequalities will both improve the health of the population while reducing costs.

    The greatest threat to the NI health service is the stealthy, increasing move towards a two tier system in NHS England which will tow all the devolved health services in the same direction.

    What do you think and what are you hearing from NI contacts?

  36. @Statgeek
    @Somerjohn

    “So, put me down as a pragmatic centrist small-l liberal keynesian europhile”

    Just how I always imagined you.”

    ——–

    It’s not so clear that Liberalism is centrism though. I’m not sure any of the parties or ideologies are that centrist. But of course that needs explaining too.

  37. PTRP

    “The converse is that big and powerful can always trump small ”

    Generally the case, but if “the small” organises itself well, and finds allies, it can outflank the “big and powerful” if its allies are even bigger and more powerful!

    History abounds with examples of that – though Ireland is the most recent that comes to mind.

  38. I think I’ll have a drink.

    Miniver Cheevy, child of scorn,
    Grew lean while he assailed the seasons;
    He wept that he was ever born,
    And he had reasons.

    Miniver loved the days of old
    When swords were bright and steeds were prancing;
    The vision of a warrior bold
    Would set him dancing.

    Miniver sighed for what was not,
    And dreamed, and rested from his labors;
    He dreamed of Thebes and Camelot,
    And Priam’s neighbors.

    Miniver mourned the ripe renown
    That made so many a name so fragrant;
    He mourned Romance, now on the town,
    And Art, a vagrant.

    Miniver loved the Medici,
    Albeit he had never seen one;
    He would have sinned incessantly
    Could he have been one.

    Miniver cursed the commonplace
    And eyed a khaki suit with loathing;
    He missed the mediæval grace
    Of iron clothing.

    Miniver scorned the gold he sought,
    But sore annoyed was he without it;
    Miniver thought, and thought, and thought,
    And thought about it.

    Miniver Cheevy, born too late,
    Scratched his head and kept on thinking;
    Miniver coughed, and called it fate,
    And kept on drinking.

  39. @Matt126

    You’re right, Labour didn’t cause the sub prime crisis, but they were a bit naive in not realising a banking crisis could happen and making more provision for it, now that we had deregulated the banks.

    And yes, Tories under Cameron were rather liberal too. Indeed Osborne self-described as a social and economic liberal.

  40. SAM

    NI’s NHS system is seriously in crisis. In fact there is an “emergency” situation now.

    I don’t know a lot about the reasons.

    One of the current issues in the NI NHS is that salaries for nurses and other professionals are falling back because of there being no government. It seems that you need to have a government in place to keep salaries in place with inflation. There is currently a strike on from health workers and is has very strong public suppoprt (and my support).

    I think that the NI system has not had the same reforms as the English NHS so is more like an old unreformed NHS.

    Ministers have avoided taking difficult decisions. There have been no end of expert consultations on what reforms are needed in particular closing some hospitals and these decisions have not been taken.

    There are also concerns about how cross-border cooperation will be affected by brexit.

    In short, its a big worry, and the Conservatives getting into power of course makes it an even bigger one.

  41. Sam

    Thanks for the poem – new to me.

    The penultimate verse may apply to many.

  42. Sam

    Do you think that reforms in England’s NHS make it necessary for devolved NHS systems to follow suit? I had thought Scotland and NI had been able to resist those changes.

  43. ChrisLane1945
    “On the topic of liberalism and conservative (lower case), the Labour Party used to have many small see conservatives. They were in tune with the workers’ majority.
    The English and Union Flags, Armed Forces, National Pride and Traditions were part of what Martin Pugh calls Tory Socialism in his History of the Labour Party…He [Attlee] knew that the ‘white working class’ woman and man was generally conservative. ”

    It’s still true to a large extent in my experience. Of course such attitudes were satirised by Johnny Speight in ‘Till death us do part’ as far back as the sixties. I remember being highly amused when Speight discovered that Alf Garnett, (though he made him a Tory) became a bit of a folk hero because he said things that even then weren’t supposed to be said. Speight was most upset.

  44. @PTRP

    “Again I think it is more nuanced than that. I point to the fact that what is seen as normal, normative. Conservatives think they are normal and everything else is abnormal. How you define cohesion varies. A conservative gay person thinks himself as normal and conservative christian see themselves as normal and the gay as not. You can see the conflict play out in the Tory party when half of the party opposed Gay marriage. Yet their Scottish leader at the time not only availing herself of this but going to the PM may at the time to push for reassurance after the DUP was brought into a C&S arrangement.”

    ——–

    Yes indeed, people have different ideas about what’s involved in social cohesion, who is included in that, and indeed it can vary according to the situation. Brexit has churned things up a bit, too…

  45. Matt126

    What the Conservatives have been able to do is to argue that a big reduction in public spending was necessary to deal with the financial crisis, which in fact was not true; higher taxation levels would in fact have been a better policy instrument to deal with the situation in 2010. They used the crisis to impose an ideologically motivated attack on public services and even cut taxes.

    This thread shows some of the negative consequences of that assault on our welfare system – I would strongly recommend it:

    https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1203630790703288320

  46. Prof Howard

    “I had thought Scotland and NI had been able to resist those changes.”

    They have – but the future is likely to be very much affected by the measures in the Withdrawal Bill which take powers over procurement and other matters back to Westminster from Holyrood, Belfast and Cardiff.

  47. SAM
    If it’s poetry night, here are the last 2 verses of one of my favourites ‘The Secret People’ by Chesterton.

    “They have given us into the hand of new unhappy lords,
    Lords without anger or honour, who dare not carry their swords.
    They fight by shuffling papers; they have bright dead alien eyes;
    They look at our labour and laughter as a tired man looks at flies.
    And the load of their loveless pity is worse than the ancient wrongs,
    Their doors are shut in the evening; and they know no songs.

    We hear men speaking for us of new laws strong and sweet,
    Yet is there no man speaketh as we speak in the street.
    It may be we shall rise the last as Frenchmen rose the first,
    Our wrath come after Russia’s wrath and our wrath be the worst.
    It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our rest
    God’s scorn for all men governing. It may be beer is best.
    But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet.
    Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.”

    Capable of various interpretations of course, as most poetry. It could be read as advocating Communist revolution, but I think Brexit is when we finally spoke. I know old-fashioned patriotism is out of fashion but I don’t care.

  48. @Prof Howard

    Imagine if England’s NHS went completely private (regardless of likelihood).

    Westminster governments then need £120 billion less per year, and subsequently they will argue that Scotland can’t get their pro-rata share (£10.5 Billion-ish if just using electorate share – not done the sums).

    So how does Scotland fund its NHS, if England does away with theirs?

    It goes Indy, is the short answer, and it’s the short answer to a lot of scenarios that hang over Scotland’s financing of its public sector, should the Tories decide to reduce public investment (they tend to in the long run).

  49. Thanks Statgeek and Oldnat.

  50. The UK government has now officially written to the Scottish and Welsh governments to ask for legislative consent over a dozen areas where the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill changes devolved powers. What happens if the Scottish government says no ? Do they have a legal veto power over the bill ?

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