Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend.

SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs)
ICM/Reuters (29th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
Kantar (28th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 44%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 2%(-1) (tabs)
Survation/GMB (26th-30th Nov) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(-2) (tabs)

Last week there appeared to be a consistent narrowing of the Conservative lead across all the polls. That now appears to have come to a halt or, at least, there is no obvious sign of it continuing. Four of the polls published this week have shown no sign of the lead narrowing (and the exception – the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain – was actually conducted last week, at a time when other polls were showing the lead falling). Note that the ComRes poll reflects a change in methodology to prompt for candidate names, something that somewhat unusually lead to all the parties falling and “other others” going up by four.

As things stand the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, varying between 6 points from BMG and 15 points from Opinium, with the average around about 10 points. It is hard to be certain what sort of lead the Conservatives need for a majority (it depends on swings in different areas and how they do in the different battlegrounds), but a reasonable assumption is somewhere around 6 or 7 points, meaning that the BMG and ICM polls that show the smallest leads are in an area where an overall majority would be uncertain. All the other polls point towards a Conservative majority.

We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


877 Responses to “Midweek polling round up”

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  1. Nicky Morgan on Newsnight.

    ‘There will not be additional checks or any kind of paperwork or anything like that when goods travel between GB & Northern Ireland.’

    One less l!ar she’s not standing

  2. @ PTRP – Did you even bother to read the piece on Macron’s unilateral tax? Clearly not.

    As for “I think you stopped (making predictions) because you kept being outflanked by events”

    yeah, whatever :-) :-)

    I’m aware the REMTARD never understood “plausible scenarios” and I think your now on about 3 yellows. If you can’t be bovvered to even read my posts or links then save yourself to effort in replying.

  3. Re: Comres

    Twitter is awash with rumours that this Comres poll is not directly comparable to the previous Tory +10 one. In the latter Comres showed voters a ballot paper of candidates standing in their constituency. In this one they did not. It is therefore more comparable to their last non-ballot paper poll, which had the Tory lead at 7.

  4. Conservative leavers:
    Con 92%
    Brexit Party 3%
    Lab 3%

    Conservative remainers:
    Con 63%
    Lib Dem 31%
    Lab 6%

    Labour leavers:
    Lab 56%
    Con 23%
    Brex 13%
    Lib Dem 8%

    Labour remainers:
    Lab 85%
    Lib Dems 11%
    Con 2%

    Deltapoll 28-30 Nov

  5. Electronic submissions aren’t “paperwork” ;)

  6. Leading party by age group:

    18-24: Labour 61%
    25-49: Labour 42%
    50-64: Conservative 44%
    65+: Conservative 62%

    YouGov 2-3 Dec

  7. I saw another poll earlier which I guessed was an outlier, it showed support for scottish independence had fallen by 5 points while support for remaining in the UK had risen 5 points. If it’s not an outlier then incredibly good news for boris and a serious kick in the nether regions for remainers

  8. @TW – indeed, would like to see more of their methodology.

    Re: low lib dem votes in labour leave seats. I am aware of this, The Economist graph i linked to showed that a lot of the projected con gains from lab came from seats where there was a very low lib dem vote. For instance last time in Wrexham the lib dems only got 2.5%. This time i cannot really see that vote going lower, surely there will be a higher number of people than that who will vote lib dem rather than labour eg because of Corbyn – if 43% of remainers vote tactically then 57% do not and, with Corbyn being less popular, maybe the minor parties will get more votes? For all the talk of tactical voting the recent poll in Wrexham showed the lib dems going from 2.5% to 5% and PC from 5% to 10%. We’ll see.

  9. @LEWBLEW

    “They don’t seem to mention their 2017 prediction though, do they. Any idea how close they were, or did they have an off year?”

    It says:

    “David Cameron’s 7-point leads in 2010 and 2015 were big enough for the pendulum to provide a just under two-point advantage for Theresa May going in to the 2017 election. She narrowly exceeded that expectation.”

    So it looks like they got the 2017 election nearly bang on as well.

  10. @RAF – AW’s bit at the start of the thread mentions that the ComRes midweek poll was the first of theirs to show a ballot paper. The ComRes poll previous to that was done last weekend and had a conservative lead of 10% (previous midweek one was 7%)

  11. RAF

    Yes i saw a tweet from Kevin Alcock who says “One thing to bare in mind with Com Res, their 10% lead was on a new methodology replicating the ballot paper in the specific constituency, this is on their old methodology, which would only be a 1% reduction in the lead.”

    So in effect not statistically significant.

  12. Are there any figures for how many people tactically voted at the last election? I did and i know a lot of other people did too.

  13. This tweet by Michael Deacon suits TW

    “Gordon Brown created austerity. Tony Blair tripled homelessness. Ramsay MacDonald invented athlete’s foot. Anything. Just say anything, and see if it catches on.”

  14. @PRTP – “I think you stopped because you kept being outflanked by events…”

    You are quite correct. @Trevors were once upon a time very keen to predict lots of things, but they started to go all squiffy about it as events unfolded.

  15. I wonder if YouGov’s MRP updates are being held back because they would otherwise be wonderful guides to tactical voting?

  16. Highest Labour polling since April?

    Is this true?

  17. Anecdote I know, but my mother – absolutely not a Corbyn fan – who has always been solidly liberal, is voting Lab in her Lab held, possibly marginal seat. Quite surprised at this, as I would have thought she wouldn’t flip, but Johnson has done it for her.

  18. Alec

    Labour held up really well from June 2017 – Late April 2019. It was the failure to move position on Brexit which saw Labour nose dive.

  19. So the ComRes poll which showed Con lead of +6 (-4) is on old methodology.

    The one for Sunday Telegraph on new methodology shows con lead of +8 (which is -2)

    Confused? Me, too!!

  20. Based on information from last month so labour may have narrowed the gap since then but apparently the below report has been published today. Not sure there is that much there in to shock people who have followed the various constituency models. Interesting that it says that Labour were slow to pick up on the threat to them in leave seats and had been thinking they would be on the attack more.

    There is a suggestion that Putney has seen a significant swing to labour since the analysis was done. Labour being in third in East Lothian is interesting.

    https://www.dataprax.is/65-battleground-seats-for-labour

  21. @Alec:

    I think Johnson has run a campaign designed to reinforce the “can’t trust Johnson” line of attack.

    He started with the “They said I couldn’t be trusted and wanted no deal, and look at that” approach. I know many Remainers think the deal was just a worst version of May’s, but that is another debate. The point is that he and those he employed set about running a campaign designed to give lots of material to throw at him on the trust angle.

    As soon as the Welsh uplift cam in a couple of weeks ago, I said that Corbyn had this in the bag.

    Corbyn’s main problem was cold he repeat the idea in 2017 that his government wouldn’t be so bad after all. The Welsh poll suggested that the Labour heartlands would buy his promises.

    All he then needs is LibDems buying the idea that he is going to behave like a caretaker PM (they will repent at leisure on that one) and the rest takes care of itself.

    Enfranchise foreign residents, 16 year olds and eliminate steps against voter fraud and he has every hope of winning the next election.

  22. Grieve, Gauke, Soubs, Ashfield chap, East Devon lady and the mighty MRLP are gutted by the new ComRes poll

    The “others” were looking good to win loads of seats in their last one (well the few that they were standing in anyway) but now are into deposit losing territory.

    What did they do in the last few days to ruin their chances ;)

    note the ;)

  23. Turk,
    “While were on the subject of honesty perhaps you could answer in return if you think Corbyn is telling the truth over the NHS being sold of to the US.”

    Since you ask, I think johnson has been proven to have a different versions for every audience. To reduce this to farce, he does not seem to have died in a ditch.

    I dont believe Johnson wants to sell off the NHS to the US, but if he needs to get an improved trade agreement with the US, there is little else we have to offer. I think a more likely outcome in the end will be no trade agreement with the US. But that too contradicts statements made about expected outcomes. I think, as with May, some of these contradictions unwind if the final relationship with the EU is a soft Brexit, and I think all roads lead that way. In the end, the only way to get an improved trade deal with the US is to join the EU.

    The Other Howard,
    “You still don’t seem to understand Brexiteers.”

    Do you mean the 25% or so of the nation who voted leave, or the half of those (maybe) who feel strongly about it?

    Even if the entire 25% stick with leave, the other 3/4 of the population might decide they would rather be in. The leave problem is that it is a huge change which can be carried forward by ideological belief, but only for those who do believe.

  24. Goar

    “So the ComRes poll which showed Con lead of +6 (-4) is on old methodology. The one for Sunday Telegraph on new methodology shows con lead of +8 (which is -2)”

    I suppose taken together there is a consistency in terms of change – one can say there is a change of the lead of on average -3.

  25. “eliminate steps against voter fraud” = “abandon voter suppression moves’

  26. Britain Elects:
    CON 41 (-1)
    LAB 33 (+1)
    LD 12 (-)
    BRX 3 (-)
    GRN 2 (-1)

    ComRes 4-5Dec

  27. The latest Savants ComRes poll show no statistically significant difference compared to the previous Dec 04 poll. Both the Conservatives and Labour moved within the MOE.

  28. Britain Elects now posting a far more sensible set of ComRes figures which eliminates the overlap of dates,

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 04 – 05 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 03 Dec

  29. Britain Elects have cleared up the confusion:

    Note to clear up the confusion re: today’s @SavantaComRes polling, one showing Con +8, and one Con +6:

    Con +8 published by a newspaper (FW: 04 – 05 Dec); Con +6 published by ‘Remain United’ (FW: 02 – 05 Dec).

    The one published by Remain United did not prompt candidates

    Queen Gina being a bit naughty? Fair play ;)

  30. The +8 one prompted for candidates; +6 didn’t, according to Britain Elects.

  31. I’m totally lost now! My understanding was that the methodological change was done due to expectation of high tactical voting. Is this not the case?

  32. @Turk – “While were on the subject of honesty perhaps you could answer in return if you think Corbyn is telling the truth over the NHS being sold of to the US.”

    I think the point that you are struggling to get is that, putting aside the partisan knockabout, the issue really isn’t whether you think Johnson is going to sell the NHS to get a trade deal. The central point is how is Johnson going to get a trade deal without selling the NHS.

    As David Henig makes clear, the leaked documents are pretty clear. We might be able to get a trade deal with the US while keeping the NHS and drugs out of the deal, and we might be able to get a trade if we keep food and food standards out of the deal, but there is no chance whatsoever of getting a deal with both of these left out.

    Johnson is therefore ly!ing to us. And if we can’t get a great deal with the US, what price Brexit? Is there any point to this at all?

    This is what you should be getting het up about.

  33. Been out for the day. What’s all this palaver about the ComRes poll. Is the Tory lead down to 6% or 8%? Are they the same polls or different polls? What a blo*dy mess.

    Either way, ComRes now joining the growing list of pollsters getting that Tory lead down into single digits.

    If Opinium tonight shows less than a 20% Tory lead, this election is going to be tight!

    :-})

  34. The differences in the Com Res are odd with Con -1 and Labour -3 when the candidates prompted:

    Does this suggest:
    1) The candidate is not very popular. Normally there is an incumbent bonus. The Voter is unlikely to know many of the other candidates.
    2) The interviewee is a bit disorientated by the list of candidates and goes to don’t know from the confirmed VI

  35. I don’t understand how ‘the NHS’ can be sold? Much of it is already provided by small private firms and always has been – GPs, pharmacists, dentists, opticians etc etc. Does it mean buying drugs from the US? We already do. Does it mean hospitals? I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the companies already providing PFI are American.
    Does it mean ancillary services such as statistical analysis that I used to provide? If so, it couldn’t happen too soon. Most people working there were time servers and very slow and with little initiative.

    I know it’s a nice soundbite but I’d be genuinely interested in what it means.

  36. From The Herald

    “BORIS Johnson likened the confiscation of handguns in the wake of the Dunblane massacre to “nanny confiscating toys” like model train sets and stamp collections, it has emerged.

    In an article for a Canadian magazine in 1997, the future Prime Minister also compared the seizures to “one of those vast Indian programmes of compulsory vasectomy”.

    He complained that an entire past-time was being “exterminated”, and said it was virtually “pointless”.”

  37. I’m sure folks are aware who ‘Remain United’ are and what they hope to achieve (clue: the name)

    Here’s Queen Gina’s last list:

    https://www.remainunited.org/marginal-seats/

    The ComRes data will be the input to a new set of recommendations tomorrow – ooh the excitement!! Will we have a new entry at #1, who is up, who is down? How many in the “it might make a difference” (still 18 or up/down)??

  38. @Crossbat XI

    “Been out for the day. What’s all this palaver about the ComRes poll. Is the Tory lead down to 6% or 8%? Are they the same polls or different polls? What a blo*dy mess.”

    One shows the ballot paper, the other does not. 6% without the ballot paper (-1 from their last non-ballot paper poll); 8% with the ballot paper (-2 from their last ballot paper poll).

  39. Sam
    That quote from Boris makes a lot of sense. The ban hasn’t stopped the proliferation of illegal guns on the streets. Meanwhile a sport has been destroyed.

  40. Savanta ComRes tables are out. ‘Others’ VI holding up fairly well.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Savanta-ComRes-Poll-Tables-S-Tel-8-Dec-2019.pdf

  41. Nuvva one, completely different projection:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    BREX: 2% (-)

    via @OpiniumResearch
    , 04 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 29 Nov

  42. estminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (-)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    GRN: 3% (+1)
    BREX: 2% (-)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 04 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 29 Nov

  43. I find the Scottish and Welsh polls really interesting. Is anyone aware of any polls for just England? Or is there a way of working out an idea of what voting intentions for England alone are?

  44. Opinium poll has 15% Tory lead. 46% VI for Tories and 31% for Labour

  45. Britain Elects

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 04 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 28 Nov

  46. We do of course already have an “Oven Ready”[1] trade deal with US and does of course cover drugs (as agreed by the EU!) – not that it’s in my interest to point the truth out, but it is amazing the ignorance of some REMTARDS who fall for soundbites and can’t spot biased “expert” opinion.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-usa-mutual-recognition-agreement

    MRA+ is the new WTO+ ;)

    [1] I’m aware that is a daft soundbite for the EU “deal” but MRA is a step up from WTO and would IMO be the min. we’ll get (and min. we need) from EU once transition is over.

  47. @Grichal

    Thanks, I hadn’t seen that. Impressive!

  48. The wee Scots crossbreak in that ComRes poll is largely the same as the YG Full Scottish one (+/-1 differences), but for Danny(? who wants to see the English vote shares, ComRes include these. [1]

    Con : 42% : Lab 34% : LD 13% : BxP 4% : Grn 2%.

    [1] Though they aren’t weighted internally to English demographics, the size of the English electorate within GB should make them reasonably accurate.

  49. Tremulant86

    I hadn’t seen your post when I posted the English results from ComRes, but you have them now. :-)

  50. Pete B

    “Meanwhile a sport has been destroyed.”

    Are you referring to the concept as depicted in this film? La Règle du Jeu (Rules of the Game) I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if the answer was ” yes”.

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