We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. OLD NAT
    Mea culpa

    I meant to say “one of the reasons I come to this site.”

    I am interested in reading comments from those who have different opinions; but not when they are offensive, pedalling a party line, of interminable length or ungrammatical. These days, posts I read are few and far between.

  2. I received my first election leaflets of the campaign today about a week too late as I have already postally voted.

    Anyway, thank you Labour, Green and one independent!

  3. NICKP

    Calm down old chap.

    You have no idea “what I want”.

  4. Over the last few days there has been a bit of discussion from (mainly male) posters regarding the WASPI compensation issue.

    They might like to have a read of this – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/02/weve-been-robbed-women-pension-age-vote

    As with all such articles, it’s much more anecdotal than science based, but the anger is palpable. It isn’t just the fact that this happened and many were severely discomfited by the changes; it’s also that Johnson has made sympathetic noises and then turned his back on these women. That’s never a great look.

    For those who still think that these people were given 15 years notice, you really need to look in more detail at what actually happened. The changes were legislated in 1995 to come into effect in 2010, but any reasonable government would have conducted an effective, personalised communication exercise immediately to ensure everyone affected knew what the new circumstances were. This never happen.

    A large number of women were only told of the changes a year before they expected to retire. Many women never received notification. This resulted in many people making irreversible decisions in what they assumed were there last few years of working, which meant they were unable to react when they heard the news.

    Given the jobs market for women in their early 60s and the inherent difficulties faced by this group of people within the workplace, a little more care is needed when dismissing their case, I feel.

  5. In DaWN (the English constituency with the highest remain vote) the Lib Dems have stood aside for Green co-leader Jon Bartley. So, in theory, this should be promising for Greens to get a good 2nd place (especially as the leave vote is split 3 ways and none of the leave parties seem to be campaigning here).

    But talking to voters I found the same attitude as in 2017 – “We really like the Greens, but we have to vote Labour to stop the Tories”. Lots of scepticism by remain voters about the Labour position on Brexit, but their dislike of Corbyn is less than their dislike of the Tories. It seems that voting behaviour becomes very tribal at these elections, even though the EU elections showed quite different voting patterns (Labour came below the Lib Dems in DaWN) – and in a very safe Labour seat.

  6. Coiln

    “You have no idea “what I want”.”

    And yet, you know what the “country is crying out for”. At least I am basing my speculation on some sort of evidence.

  7. Bantams,
    “They’ve c*cked up big time with the revoke policy,”

    Why do you say that? I dont see it myself.

    1) they have from the start been a remain party, more remain than labour. Being remain is not an issue for their voters, but being leave would be.

    2)FPP acts against small parties. Wherever libs sit on the remain spectrum, they have to have a policy which could result in remain. But aside from that, I dont see why it much matters. For a remainer with a choice of lib or lab, in general the obvious answer is to vote lab, because they are the best placed remain party to win in most seats. A lib vote is very likely to be a wasted vote.

    3) The irony of the libs position is that the best advice to someone who likes lib policy is probably to vote labour. Which of course doesnt help the prospects of the lib party, at least not right now. But one day brexit will be over, and at that point they want to be as well placed as they can be.

    4) If brexit goes ahead (con win), lib will be well placed to support rejoin. If lab do not go rejoin, then libs will have a USP worth +10% in the polls. In this outcome they win big time. If lab go rejoin, then at least libs will not be losing all the rejoiners to lab. At that point, other issues might start to matter.

    The thing is, libs have no power to help themselves right now. If there is a big issue and lab and con are on opposite sides, then voters are best advised to pick one of the big two. Libs chance comes if the big two agree on most things, but libs can offer something unique. That might be as basic as ‘not one of the big two’, who are becoming seriously disliked by many voters, and I fancy this is something of how they succeeded in 2010. But they then blew it by aligning with one of the big two.

    The opportunity for small parties to break through comes if they have a unique policy, the obvious example is UKIP/BxP. But even then, one of the big parties my steal their idea. Thats how it is for BxP and for libs. I also think the day of the greens is yet to com, but similarly whether they become a political force will depend on how much the big two are able to steal their policies. Both big parties might have difficiulties with the implications of green policies, but labour today talking about reducing train fares is stepping their way. Looks as though lab might have in mind to stay ahead of that threat.

  8. @NICKP 4.05

    “My prediction is still Labour most seats if polls stay the same – and if the polls are within a couple of points by election day, a Lab majority.”

    Can you please explain how you have arrived at this conclusion?

  9. Today’s ICM poll plugged in Electoral Calculus, plus numbers from the most recent MORI Scotland poll, gives seat prediction

    Con 312 (-6)
    Lab 253 (-9)
    Lib 16 (+4)
    SNP 47 (+12)
    PC 3 (-1)
    G 1
    NI 18

    which is well into hung parliament territory again.

    Whilst obviously this isn’t definitive, and I’ve picked a recent poll at random, and there are substantial uncertainties, it shows a Tory win is by no means a foregone conclusion.

  10. CHARLES STUART.
    Good Evening to you; we shall soon see.

    SAM.
    Good Evening to you from a now cold Bournemouth East.
    I think that when Jeremy Corbyn was being arrested for his part in the solidarity demonstration at the trial of the man who killed Anthony Berry MP at the Brighton bomb, no one expected him to become party leader. The same thing, IMO applies to his wreath laying with Black September members, the platforms he shared, his reference to Hamas as friends, the cartoon he ‘liked’ and his appearances on Iran TV.
    His opponents have exploited some of these events.
    He was party leader when he laughed and joked with the Momentum member who was very rude to Ruth Smeeth at the Lady Chakrabarti presentation.

  11. NICKP
    My prediction is still Labour most seats if polls stay the same – and if the polls are within a couple of points by election day, a Lab majority.

    That’s a brave prediction

  12. Regarding the possible different treatment of Corbyn and Johnson, one thing i would consider is the Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe case. Away from the immediate direct effect on Nazanin herself, i think it is surprising that there has not been much comment on the wider effects of Johnson basically blurting out that a British national (well, dual citizen) accused of acting against a state was lying. Surely there is a case that an individual disclosing such information should be dismissed from any position where they handle sensitive information? ‘If it was Corbyn..’ can seem a bit of a tired phrase but if Corbyn had done the same thing then certain newspapers would have never shut up about how much of a threat to national security he is, etc, etc.

  13. Am I the only one wondering what DaWN is?

  14. LambethGreen

    What possible point would there be for the Greens to take Lab votes in South London?

  15. NICKP: ‘My prediction is still Labour most seats if polls stay the same – and if the polls are within a couple of points by election day, a Lab majority.’

    You can get 20-1 or better at the bookies on a Lab OM.

    If you think that might happen, I suggest you hoover up all spare money and whack it on – a £2100 return for each £100 bet.

    At that rate, you might even be able to ride out the next five years of Corbyn and McDonnell turning the UK into Venezuela Mk.2, and not have to worry about waiting five years for delivery of your Trabant equivalent from the single UK nationalised car manufacturer (strikes permitting).

  16. DaWN=Dulwich & West Norwood

  17. @Crossbatt11 It is an honour to be coupled with you by Fred. As I hope you know, I always read your posts with pleasure, and not least for the zest for life and its details that they often display. And actually the attack may do me no harm. I seem to be getting the reputation of being a bit of a goody-two-shoes in this site and the accusation of (I assume) prejudice makes me more interesting.

    On the particular issue, my experience with my Jewish friends is that almost to a man or woman they are very critical of the Israeli government. They are also, however, very conscious of the existential threats to Israel’s existence. As a result of this and of their personal experience of antisemitism they are very quick to interpret criticism of the Jewish state as hostility to Jews. For their part non-Jewish friends who go to Israel get very upset by the sight of the wall and they along with stay at home Labour ones who dislike Trump find it very easy to get angry with the Trump’s friend the Israeli government. And from there things easily get personal.

    @Jim Jam thanks for calling me courageous. I am not sure who the resident expert is so my courage was sadly inadvertent.

    @ Old Nat – I am glad I have deceived you into thinking that I am not daft. My daughter makes no such error. When I confessed to my latest demented act she simply responded ‘But dad you have always been like that’. So I will quote you to her in my defense.

  18. carrod

    your usual pathetic last paragraph from the “book of feeble minded attack lines” provided to idiots

  19. Why do I think Lab will get most seats? The polling is better than last time (when Lab got close), Johnson is going to drive a few Tories away at the last minute and bob’s your uncle

  20. The most recent ICM poll was conducted between 29th Nov – 2nd Dec, so between 14 – 10 days out from the election. I’ve just been looking over the polls from the last election, and by coincidence ICM also released a poll at the same time in 2017. That was conducted on the 26th – 29th May (so 13 – 10 days out from the election).

    2019 Con 42% (+1) Lab 35% (+1) LD (13% (-) Con lead 7%
    2017 Con 45% (- 2) Lab 33% (-) LD 8% (-1) Con lead 12%

  21. @Alec
    ‘Two points of note for that ICM poll:

    1) The is the first poll from anyone to show Labour on 35%.
    2) The ICM poll ten days out in 2017 had Con 45% Lab 33%.

    A 7 point margin is much better than a 12 point gap, for Labour at least.’

    I agree with the first point. A 35% vote share would be a creditable result which would easily exceed the 31% achieved by Ed Miliband in 2015 and matches the 35% polled by Kinnock in 1992 – indeed it is just 1% lower than the 36% managed by Blair in 2005.
    Your second point in relation to ICM’s data in 2017 needs to be seen ,however, in the context of subsequent methodological changes.Throughout that campaign ICM produced big Tory leads – reflecting significant changes made to compensate for the 2015 polling debacle. In effect , ICM overcompensated and had a poor 2017 election in terms of outcome v final poll prediction. Those changes have now been reversed, and it would be incorrect to compare the 2017 and 2019 data on a like for like basis. – or to do so would generate false comfort.

  22. Talking of the desire for a ‘centrist politician’ I wonder how Labour would be doing if they were led by Yvette Cooper or Keir Starmer, offering a second referendum with a choice between Boris’s deal and remain, campaigning for Remain, and suggesting a programme with about half the spending commitments of JC.

    I think they might be winning.

  23. NickP

    I wish I shared your optimism :-)

  24. @CAMBRIDGECOL 4.46

    Interesting comparison – has the methodology changed significantly between the two polls? If not then maybe NICKP is on to something……

  25. HAL

    “Whilst obviously this isn’t definitive, and I’ve picked a recent poll at random, and there are substantial uncertainties, it shows a Tory win is by no means a foregone conclusion.”

    I’ve not seen anyone post that a Tory win is a foregone conclusion other than in their MOG forecasts on here, of course it is not certain. We still have 9 days to go and “events” may happen that change things significantly one way or the other.

    Similarily why is ICM or BMG correct, and Deltapoll and Opinium wrong?

    We just don’t know.

  26. Not singling anybody out but the tone has been relatively civil for most of the day – please can we keep it that way.

  27. NICKP

    You predicted Lab most seat with Polls as they are-what “evidence” do you have for that?

    You said “I think what you want is more Thatcherism – and hence more inequality, social division and increased wealth disparity” You have no evidence for that either.

    Can we agree on this evidence based statement?-You want a Corbyn Government & I don’t.

  28. @PeteB

    Possibly you are; the clue is in the poster’s name.

  29. MILLIE

    I agree

  30. @ Trigguy Bonjour Tristesse

    I wouldn’t mind if the site closed down. The internet is a wonderful thing & all that jazz, but boy one can waste so much time!
    It would presumably be devastating for the dozen? posters who have posted virtually every day for a decade or more.
    But the Brexiteers, & indeed Momentum, tell us it’s healthy for systems to receive a profound shock: chaos theory thrown at us from both ends, Ha bl–dy Ha.
    Well if it’s true for systems, it’s true for individuals as well. People can find another bridge to shelter under. We must move on.
    The shock needed is probably PR. The FPTP system has served this country ill.

    I won’t come on again if the Tories get their expected majority. What for: to read the jubilation of the Tories & the SNP, the unholy alliance that forced the election.
    And then the inevitable return to interminable & incestuous posting on Brexit proceduralism, the EU trade treaty minutiae, & the Scottish Indy ref thrown in: I shudder at the thought.

  31. Colin

    Couldn’t agree more I’ve done my own straw poll in the U.K. of two new voters (my grandchildren) both at university ,both of whom see the Green Party as the way forward. Needless to say I’ve cut them out of my will :-).

    Glad to see you back thought you might have fallen foul of web sight glitch. I must admit I didn’t have a clue how to get back in ,fortunately one of our farm hands son (12) sorted it in a couple of minutes so muchas gracias Alejandro.

  32. @Millie

    You do need to factor in the impact of 2-3 years of character assassination in right wing media aimed at Cooper. Her husband was continually attacked in the press – leaves politics and fairly soon afterwards free of the negative press the public get a more balanced view of him and he becomes a virtual national treasure.

  33. Is the BMG adjustment for increased 18-25 voter registration a too positive adjustment for current Labour VI?

    Lots of additional 18-25 year olds have registered to vote, Yes

    An overwhelming majority of these would vote Labour and relatively few Conservative, Yes

    So on the surface this adjustment is sensible, Yes

    Generally 18-25 year olds tend to be more mobile and need to re-register more often anyway.

    For 18-19 year olds this will be their first GE and they will need to register to vote for the first time. However, a significant minority may already have been registered in May (predominantly at their home address) motivated by an anti-Brexit view for the European Elections than otherwise would have been in May 2017.

    The big difference this election is that it takes place on 12th December. Almost all university students will go home for Christmas. Terms end on the 13th at the latest. Many students will start going home before then. This has presented students with a new problem; many now need to be registered to vote in two places at the same time to be assured of using their vote in the most effective way.

    There are 2.3 million students at university. How many of these extra voter registrations in 18-25 year old group are as a direct result of them now being registered twice for legitimate reasons compared to that same grouping in May 2017?

    How many of these 2.3 million student voters are being counted twice when BMG make their new adjustments?

    There may be slight over correction in overall Labour VI with the new BMG methodology compared to other polls IMHO.

  34. I believe (as I’ve said before on this site) that the polls were wrong last time because there is about 5% of voters who pollsters can’t find – and last time they showed up and voted Labour and I can’t think of any reason why they won’t this time.

    So if Lab get within 5% in the polls – they are ahead on the night.

  35. TURK

    Thanks.

    I got messages saying UKPR had gone to a different server & was reconciled to relying on AW’s Tweets for Polling info.

    Then I just did a fresh Google search for UKPR rather than using my bookmarked link-and bingo. My bookmarked link still doesn’t work so I Google afresh for this site every visit.

  36. The ICM poll suggests that a Tory majority is the most likely result now. A 7% lead in 2010 failed to deliver a majority for Cameron , but that was in the context of the LibDems winning more than 55 seats. Current polling evidence suggests the LibDems will struggle to exceed 20 seats.On that basis a 5% lead might well be sufficient to produce a small majority for Johnson.It looks as if Labour needs to creep up to 37%/38% without the Tories rising further. Can the Libdems be squeezed further back to circa 10% to Labour’s advantage?

  37. The ICM poll suggests that a Tory majority is the most likely result now. A 7% lead in 2010 failed to deliver a majority for Cameron , but that was in the context of the LibDems winning more than 55 seats. Current polling evidence suggests the LibDems will struggle to exceed 20 seats.On that basis a 5% lead might well be sufficient to produce a small majority for Johnson.It looks as if Labour needs to creep up to 37%/38% without the Tories rising further. Can the Libdems be squeezed further back to circa 10% to Labour’s advantage?

  38. Colin your last statement is a truism – your previous, “the country is crying out for…” was a lazy Woodrow Wyatt-ism.

  39. Again, loooking at the Survation poll published last night, that was conducted between 26th Nov – 30th Nov, so between 16 – 12 days out from the election. They also released a poll a similar (though not identical) time in 2017 election. That was conducted on the 26th – 27th May (so 13 – 12 days out from the election).

    2019 Con 42% (+1) Lab 33% (+3) LD 11% (- 4) Con lead 9%
    2017 Con 43% (-) Lab 37% (+3) LD 8% (-) Con lead 6%

    Interestingly it was the next Survation poll in the sequence in 2017 (so conducted between 6 – 5 days out from the election) that suddenly narrowed the gap to 1% (Con 41% (-2) Lab 40% (+3).

  40. Colin

    I (and most others) had the same, if you clear out the cookies on your browsing history that will fix it.

  41. I suspect the polls now for Con & Lab are exactly what they were in 2017 – LD is higher which will probably lose Con more seats than Lab

    Don’t forget that Scotland also slants the polling as Lab gets squeezed up there.

  42. TOH,

    “Similarily why is ICM or BMG correct, and Deltapoll and Opinium wrong?”

    – I don’t claim this at all. Opinium for example will give a Tory majority. I’m just pointing out this conclusion is not shared by all recent poll results.

    Robbiealive,

    I’m quite looking forward to getting back to brexit minutae. This general election thing is a big distraction.

  43. @ Millie

    I think the one thing the polls are telling us is that in the WWC towns voters are switching from Lab to Tory in fairly high numbers and these are the seats that Labour is possibly going to lose. I honestly don’t believe anything more remain from Labour (and your scenario for remain does sort of do that) has any chance of winning back those voters. Corbyn has walked a fine line and found other issues to encourage those voters back into the Labour fold.

    I accept all the criticisms of Corbyn (well not all of them but you know what I mean) but I can’t see the result would have been any different under any other leader. Maybe more Tory remain would have switched over to Labour with a non threatening Blair type middle class policy but that would have been in the wrong places and the Labour leave areas would have been more at risk then they are now.

    The Tories have found a way to eat into some of the Labour vote over Brexit which would not have happened for an other reason.

  44. I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory!
    Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.

  45. TED

    Yes-I tried that, but my bookmarked old link goes to the previous thread to this. Actually there is still a conversation proceeding on that thread dated today.

    UKPR now seems to have spawned two parallel universes , neither of which is aware of the other.

  46. @Millie i agree. Labour might also be winning if it had Nicola Sturgeon as leader. This is why I think Labour should announce what it would do if it was the main party but did not have an overall majority and within the first two years. Inevitably this would focus on those elements on which all the ABT parties are agreed. This would, I suspect, be a moderate and popular version of what most people see as necessary and would not like Johnson’s deal risk severe damage to the economy. Although I don’t think any of the other parties are up for a deal with Labour (or vice versa), I suspect that their influence on Labour would be widely perceived as beneficial.

  47. @ Colin

    “UKPR now seems to have spawned two parallel universes , neither of which is aware of the other.”

    I’ve been in phone and video conferences like that.

  48. Millie

    Maybe but consider that with a different leader labour would still have problems with northern leave voters and perhaps bigger problems. Another thing is the extra 300,000+ members that corbynism has attracted to the party, that’s a lot of £4 a month membership fees + donations, also a huge increase in the ground game both online and in the physical world.

    Offsetting that is a slightly more sympathetic press, corporate donations and greater support among MPs

    Also considering the amount of upheaval we have had recently it seems that what a lot of people want is change, is there really a space for a ‘no change’ candidate?

    Do I think labour would be doing better with for eg Angela Raynor or laura Pidcock as leader, possibly. AR would be attacked for her social class and her accent but generally the media would be slightly less hostile. Labour party membership would fall by about 50,000 I’m guessing as AR would be seen as a less radical leader. AR would play well in the north but less well in the south. On balance I guess about 2 points extra in VI

    LP is a more radical option, press equally hostile though im not sure where they would attack, increase in labour party membership quite likely but absolutely no chance of corporate donations (personally I’m very good with that) on balance i think a slight increase in VI maybe 1 point.

    The problem labour has is that if it swings to the centre it loses votes like mine, a traditional non voter(if labour was led by Yvette cooper I wouldnt be voting or giving my money to the labour party) who desperately wants change but if it chases my vote it loses the votes of people who only want a softer status quo. There is a sweet spot, but where it is nobody knows

  49. I wouldn’t underestimate Labour’s ability to mobilise the youth vote when it comes to voting time. It was effective in 2017 and I see no reason why it wouldn’t be now, despite the lack of enthusiasm for a GE in the first place. I expect an improvement on whatever the average polling tracker ends up putting the difference at (sub 9% at this rate, anyway), but whether that amounts to as big a boost as last time is another matter. BMG show a 6% gap and have adjusted for turnout, but ICM with 7% haven’t?

    Would appreciate thoughts on this. First-time poster here!

  50. Graham,

    I agree with your assessment of ICMs 7% producing a Tory OM and not EC as computed by Hal.

    I applied a simple proportionate approach weeks ago to key seats and like you calculate that at current Tory Levels Labour have to get within 5%. However, if the Tories drop to 40% they may need a 6% lead; and at 38% possibly 7%.

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