We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. Interesting use of language from Farage, referring to “that Swinson girl”. It’s almost as if he’s trying to be deliberately provocative in a way that might encourage remainish Tories to support the libs in tricky constituencies but might be worrying about a “vote Tory get Nigel” sense.

    Alternatively it could be he’s just being his normal charming self. And I speak as one of the liking-Swinson-less-as-I-get-to-know-her-better brigade.

  2. TOH,

    No extra borrowing is required for Labour’s rail policy. The money is to come from Vechicle Excise Duty, already hypothecated by the present government for a road-building fund. Labour are simply planning to switch the money from road to rail.

  3. @THEEXTERMINATINGDALEK

    To be fair to Swinson the expectations that are on any LD leader to have that breakout moment Cleggomania style are immense. So she was sort of set up for failure from the start. Also of the main Westminster parties she is the least experienced in leading a national campaign. Standing on so many stages next to a veteran of GEs such as Sturgeon her inexperience is bound to show.

    Though the main flaw in the LDs campaign isn’t her – its their ‘extreme’ position on Brexit which doesn’t actually allow them to position themselves in the middle ground.

  4. One of the big success of the Conservative campaign has been to position itself as a new regime – and avoid focus on the past 9 years distancing itself from its record. Inadvertently Labour has assisted in this by producing too many plans, consequently for focus on the future has meant more focus on Labour’s plan whilst all Johnson has to do is make a couple of comments in support of the current zeitgeist for more govt spending and an end to austerity.

    I would say the basic Tory strategy is virtually identical to last time, but their implementation of it is significantly imporved.

  5. (Cathing up as I read the previous day’s stuff)

    @Oldnat

    “He enunciates clearly, pronounces an appropriate range of vowels and consonants, and speaks loudly – very, very loudly.
    I tire of public speakers who can’t be heard at the back of the room.”

    Not me. I’d like nothing more than be able to go to sleep when Farage starts talking. In some ways this also ties in to the ‘cesspit’ and trolls theme. Politicians of this type, the one’s that talk big and deliver little are making a mockery of the system. Whether its Trump, Boris, Farage or whoever else, they do tend to be big on buzzwords and very very small on detail.

    On other matters, I will not be clicking that link regarding the persecution of protestants. I for one have never been persecuted for my religious or non-religious beliefs, so little point, and even less point in filling up my cache with that URL. I am resigned to a world of shame, as I avoid all web links to religious ‘authorities’. Strangely, I can happily chat to anyone of the clergy, regardless of their leanings. Perhaps the real clergy don’t take a part in the web side of things…

    In other news, as I type, I hope that Mrs Statgeek will soon return with a New Licht Cheese Burgher and a large fries.

    @CB11 / Fred

    The former is generally enlightened (his voting intention and his preferred football team is his own fault :D ), and the latter we do not know. I know which one I prefer so far. Nuff said.

    @Trigguy

    “Yes, 7! What is the point?”

    Nice. Margin of Error of +/- 37% points.

  6. Typo: “Catching”…I know no one called ‘Cath’ and see no reason to use her as a verb. :D

  7. @TOH – re borrowing ever more cash, apart from you getting it wrong on the rail issue (see @Hal above) you really ought to bear in mind the IFS assessment that the deficit would be higher under the Conservative plans if they fail to secure a trade deal by the end of next year.

    Given Johnson’s promises, most people see this outcome as inevitable.

    Unless of course, you’re telling me Johnson isn’t telling the truth?

    :)

  8. “JOHN33
    Out of the following, who do you trust the most to tell the truth?”
    Johnson (Con): 27%
    Corbyn (Lab): 20%
    Sturgeon (SNP): 14%
    Swinson (Ldem): 12%
    Don’t Know: 27%

    Staggering!!”

    Not as staggering as you think,

    For sometime now I have believed that BJ is a freakishly fortunate politician, because mud doesn’t seem to stick to him or certainly not as much as it does to others. He seems to have a winning way with many who come into contact with him. Something not always appreciated or recognised by most on this board. For that reason I believe he will pull off a win.
    I think Trump will win re election as well for similar reasons.
    I may be wrong, but this is what comes across to me when i see them in action

  9. Redrich
    Points taken re Swinson, although if I were living in a constituency where the libs were second I would find it extremely difficult to vote for them due to her voting record in the coalition, but if truth be told would probably don the Toynbee nosepeg and cross my fingers while doing it. Umunna and Lee don’t help.

    Cleggmania dissipated before polling day, which is usually forgotten but continues to haunt the Lib narrative. They’d do well to remember it since their insistence on running presidential campaigns since doesn’t seem to have worked very well. The main problem they seem to have is that with such a very small pool of actual MPs to choose from the focus on the leader is even more inevitable than for the larger parties. Sturgeon is a seriously heavyweight leader and has earned respect regardless of whether one agrees with her or not, the Greens and PC aren’t going to break through and know it, and Farage is Farage.

    The Libs are therefore in the invidious position of needing to run a presidential campaign without an impressive candidate to fill the role, and no matter how much they state that black is white that’s not going to change at this election, which means they will face the same difficulties at the next until events conspire to allow them a bit of a breakthrough.

  10. Good afternoon from a warm, sunny and cold Bournemouth East by the sea.
    CROSSBAT11. Thank you for your morning greetings about Villa.
    Like United and Labour, Villa are too strong to die but too weak to win.
    IMO.

    The polls seem to be pointing to a Con win, but are too optimistic about Lib Dem figures, I think.

  11. @ ChrisLane1945

    I disagree with you about the Lib Dems. I think that their vote share is underestimated by the polls but more importantly that they will pick up seats that the polls have missed.

    I am a Conservative but I think that there are a lot of Conservative seats vulnerable to efficient Lib Dem targeting. I still think that the Conservatives will win more Labour seats than expected, hold more Scottish seats than expected and lose more seats to the Liberal Democrats than expected. I suspect that if there were no losses, the Conservatives could win a landslide but with losses to the Liberal Democrats will either have a modest majority or fall just short. In essence I think that seat churn will be greater than at any election since WWII.

  12. Brave Charles to disagree with our resident LD support level expert, smiley thing.

  13. I have read John Harris’ article which CB11 comments on upthread.

    Yes, it is hard reading for remainers. No doubt if and when Brexit happens this will remove some of the animosity from those who felt the referendum should be implemented, and those who support Brexit for non-economic reasons.

    I think there will be others who will not be so satisfied. Even if Brexit were to bring medium economic benefits – which of course is unknown – imo it is unlikely to restore some of the previous aspects of life familiar to many in leave areas. I am thinking of things like large-scale manufacturing and good-quality jobs.

    It seems to me that automation and the electronic revolution have removed much of the industrial base, and would have done so regardless of our membership or otherwise of the EU.

    Very sad though when you see someone, usually a retired man, who says ruefully that ‘we used to make things’. But wishes are not horses – is that the saying?

  14. @ Bantams

    Your Cornwall advance tickets is a case in point. If the plane is late returning then you lose your ticket entirely and have to buy a new one. Plus whenever I do these bookings getting a single off peak ticket (non advance) is the same price as an off peak return so the advance have to be available for both legs.

    So it might be that advance tickets aren’t available for the return leg (they won’t be for certain busy times of day) and you return ticket is the same price of an off peak return. Everything has to fall into place for advance tickets to work- certainty of the time you are going to be travelling being the key one. I mean it will probably work out for you but plenty of times it has been inconvenient for me or losing the ticket because of change of plans (football match postponed, cat ill and wanting to come home earlier etc).

  15. @ Charles Stuart

    I don’t know how you would define a landslide but I would be surprised if the Conservatives win more than 350 seats and suspect it could be closer to 340.

    The next MRP should be the clearest indication of how things are going but the spread betting markets have come back to around 340 seats this morning.

    I still think the Conservatives will win, but only just.

  16. Another day another bribe from the Labour Party, a few days ago I said there was a air of desperation creeping into Labours campaign it would seem as the latest bribe which didn’t appear in the manifesto appears to confirm my original thoughts.

    It’s not that I blame Labour for the latest uncosted announcement although I believe the money is coming from vehicle tax (rise?). After all it’s easy to promise much harder to deliver but anything to get elected I suppose.

    Over here it’s difficult to judge how the U.K. election is going down with voters from what I can gather it’s a pretty low key affair with the public struggling to believe anything being said by any party.

    Personally I think with such low levels of trust my assessments of a lower turn out than usual could be correct.

    I predicted at the beginning I thought this would be another hung Parliament or a party with a very slim majority I don’t see much happening that would change that view ,neither of the main parties are particularly attractive both suffer from poor leadership.

    Being a Tory I would plum for Johnson not because I like him ,my view of him has always been negative ,but because I believe the policies of Corbyn/McDonnell would be disastrous for the economy and jobs and leave future generations struggling under a huge burden of national debt which would stifle future investment in the U.K.

  17. @Fred

    He seems to have a winning way with many who come into contact with him.

    From those who do come into close contact with – eg former colleagues, personal relations etc its the reverse. As one person who has has said, anyone who thinks Johnson is a good bloke obviously doesn’t know him. Johnson has the big advantage of the right-wing press, which praise him and denigrate his opponents.

    Its more those who don’t know much about him who fall for his charms (and he does have many) – his appeal has well worn off in London where I suspect overall the Tories will lose seats. Like Trump, he is exploiting the emotional pull of (English) nationalism, exploiting frustration form the left behind sections of society in the old industrial heartlands, but neglecting to admit his support and role in the previous regime / establishment.

    In general terms he is following the approach taken by Trump – and it seems to be working.

  18. @TOH

    ‘Millie
    “The apparent resilience of the Tory vote is surprising, given a decidedly lacklustre campaign.”
    See my post above. The voters polled see it as much better than Labour or LibDems cam;paigns.’

    Your stats do not conflict with my observation. The Tories have run a lacklustre campaign, but people still apparently think it is better than Lab and the LDs…!

  19. Charles Stuart
    “I think that seat churn will be greater than at any election since WWII.”

    It’s possible, but very hard to pick up from National polls. I’d like it to be true, but do you, or anyone, have any evidence for this?

  20. My postal vote came at the weekend. I normally vote in the booth, but I’m tempted to swich to postal vote permanently, seems so much easier.

    This made me to look at postal votes and their impact.

    At GE 2017 18.2% of voters registered by post, with 85.2% turnout – vs 65.9% in person turnout. Thus ~22% of votes cast were postal.Source Electoral Comission

    The postal vote % seems to be rising (registrations 16.4% in 2015, 15.3% in 2010) and has always had a higher turnout c.83-5%.

    The rise in postal seems to be because of he Representation of the People (England & Wales) Regulations 2001, making postal vote available on demand.

    Scotland has a high use of postal votes – I guess because it is so rural compared to England.

    I expect this trend to continue with postal votes maybe 24% of the vote at GE 2019.

    However that still leaves 76% of votes to be cast on polling day, I think somtimes UKPR perhaps overstates the postal vote issue – maybe we are an overweighted sample of postal vote users as we are more politically engaged than average. A late swing on 11th Dec could still turn the result.

  21. Bantams
    “Both he and Boris should be looking at the underlying reasons why they are so distrusted.”

    Possibly because they’re both politicians? I think there was a survey a couple of months ago that found that politicians were ranked below used car salesmen in the trust stakes.

  22. @ Turk

    “Another day another bribe from the Labour Party”

    It seems clear that the Labour strategy was to have something big to announce every day – I think they did something similar last time. So I don’t think it’s desperation, it’s just what they planned from the start.

    However, there are (at least) three problems with this strategy. Firstly, the law of diminishing returns. Secondly, tied to the first, is that for many people will become increasingly sceptical as the promises mount up. And finally, it doesn’t fit well with a manifesto released half way through the campaign. It might perhaps be better to reveal the manifesto policy by policy day by day and only release the whole thing near the end, but this might be seen as a little bizzarre.

    Difficult to say if it’s working or not, changes in the polling are slow and difficult to tie to any particular event.

  23. Redrich,

    The quote about Johnson was from Max Hastings, writing about him here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain

    It does seem that a large section of the population have no idea what Johnson is like, but it isn’t hard to find plenty of published material about him. However I think the truth is that many don’t care as long as he delivers their fix of racial superiority.

    The problem is that brexit won’t pay any bills. It is driven by the need to cover up an empty agenda in most other policy areas and find a wedge issue that will divide labour support.

    What’s the next populist trick when brexit is “over” or has ceased to be useful for the Conservative Party?

  24. @Pete B
    Ipsos Mori do a poll.
    Journalists rank low, also bankers, estate agents and advertising executives.

    Doctors & Nurses ranked highly also teachers.

    Now imagine a journalist turned into a politician running for pm, perhaps supported by a banker turned politician for chancellor…..

  25. @HAL

    People are selective in the published material they rely on – especially on topics such as Brexit (personally illustrated to me by a conversation I had with my barber in relation to what most economist thought would be the impact of a hard brexit – it got quite heated).

    Personally I think in future years a significant number of voters will regret the day they cast their vote for Johnson, and will take no joy in saying I told you so. Whilst the electorate may very well turn on the Tories in the next election – by then I fear the damage will have been done. ROC pro-brexit posters no doubt feel the opposite and that we are on the verge of a golden age. Time will tell.

  26. @REDRICH

    I agree. The only thing that gives me solace from a Tory victory is that the next few years will be incredibly painful in terms of Brexit wrangling and, if they get a small majority, all the problems between the ERG and the ‘ moderates’ will flare up again a year from now. That coupled with a likely decline in the economy post Brexit and they will get mangled in 2024, in my view. This is only conditional on Labour getting their act together and using the intervening years effectively.

  27. Poll
    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (=)
    BXP: 3% (-1)

    Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec.
    Changes w/ 22-25 Nov

  28. @MILLIE

    Looks like LAB still creeping up and CON static. But I agree with Millie that the LD campaign and leader are so unappealing that they are unlikely to make much headway, esp. in the SouthWest. The problem for LAB is that they probably need the LDs to take some CON seats to achieve a hung parliament.

  29. That ICM poll is bad news for Labour. A week on and they haven’t closed the gap further.

  30. @HAL

    “What’s the next populist trick when brexit is “over” or has ceased to be useful for the Conservative Party?”

    Yes indeed. Of course the previous populist trick was privatisation, whereby the electorate were bribed with their own money. But eventually the money and assets run out.

  31. Some of you with masochistic traits might stagger through this transcript of the Marr – Johnson interview.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/01121901.pdf

    In the course of the interview many of the things said by Johnson are untrue. The BBC did a fact check of the interview which can be found here.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50624056

    The BBC does not say this is a comprehensive assessment of the accuracy of what Johnson said in the interview, merely that these are the most eye-catching.

    What was omitted was the handling of the Usman Khan release which Johnson claims, wrongly, was due to Labour legislation.It is true that Labour’s law change of 2008 created the type of extended sentence that allowed Khan to be released automatically. But Labour had also created a viable alternative, in the indeterminate IPP sentence, which required parole board oversight. Khan was given an indeterminate sentence initially which was changed on appeal. Johnson’s claim that the judges had no choice in 2012 is not true.

    No mention was made of the NI /GB / RoI inaccuracies and omission by Johnson. There will certainly be checks on goods moving from GB to NI and there will be a hard NI / RoI border if the government of NI decides it no longer favours regulatory alignment.

    Johnson’s claim that child poverty has decreased since 2010 is also untrue. This is from the Save the Children website:”Our analysis shows that since 2010, over 400,000 more children in households with children under 5 are in poverty, an increase of over a quarter over this period.”

    I think if I went further through the interview there would be more inaccuracies to be found. I’ll leave that to others.

    The BBC has a duty to inform. It is in the Charter. Yet polling in Scotland shows that 40% of those polled think health is a reserved matter. It suits the BBC occasionally to muddy the water on devolution. What relevance has the performance of the Scottish government on health in a Westminster GE?What can explain Andrew Neil’s attack on Sturgeon during his interview for her government’s performance on health?

    I find convincing the claim by David Timoney that,”Today we have a Prime Minister who was twice sacked for lying during his career but has continued to routinely lie. That kind of impunity requires the connivance of a lot of people.”

  32. ICM poll edges us towards hung parliament. BXP slightly down and Lab slightly up makes it that little bit harder for Cons to take marginal Lab seats; LD holding steady and they are in the hunt for a few Con seats.

  33. John33,

    ICM wont shift around as much as other pollsters.

    They reallocate DKs at a higher rate than anyone else back to the party of choice in 2017 so the movement in other polls from DK firming up wont be as evident with them.

    7% with a week ago would do me from where Labour started if that is the real under!ying position.

    Would mean with newly registered younger voters, pace BMG, that ICM haven’t accounted for (I think) there is a chance, no more, of narrowing to 5% or so by GE day but needs to be with Tories on 41% max as I read it if Lab 5% behind stops an OM.

  34. @TOBYEBERT
    The last giveaway privitisation was run by …. Vince Cable.

    His ‘economic guru’ reputation was shattered the day he published the advisory price range for Royal Mail and was at least £1bn short of what he could have got for it.

  35. Corbyn has long been demonised by the media. One of the links I gave (up the thread) was to an article that looked at the criticisms of Corbyn regarding terrorism. It seems to me that there is nothing to support a claim that Corbyn supports terror or terrorists.

    Another link examines the negative focus of the press and media on Corbyn.

    “Our analysis shows that Corbyn was thoroughly delegitimised as a political actor from the moment he became a prominent candidate and even more so after he was elected as party leader, with a strong mandate. This process of delegitimisation occurred in several ways: 1) through lack of or distortion of voice; 2) through ridicule, scorn and personal attacks; and 3) through association, mainly with terrorism.

    All this raises, in our view, a number of pressing ethical questions regarding the role of the media in a democracy. Certainly, democracies need their media to challenge power and offer robust debate, but when this transgresses into an antagonism that undermines legitimate political voices that dare to contest the current status quo, then it is not democracy that is served.”

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/media-and-communications/research/research-projects/representations-of-jeremy-corbyn

    The other link I provided was to an Independent article about soldiers in the Parachute Regiment using a photograph of Corbyn as t4rget practice. As we have seen in Northern Ireland the “othering” of people can lead to their m*rd3r by others, including soldiers.

    Corbyn and Johnson are not treated equally by the media. That has an effect. That is one reason why Johnson is seen by some as a better PM than Corbyn. My view is that he is unfit.

  36. Jim Jam

    Thanks. That is useful. I guess we need to consider the efficiency of tactical voting also but I am guessing this is incredibly hard to measure when everything is so fluid and people are waiting to see where we are nearer polling day.

  37. Here is a comparison of the polling average with “This Time” in 2017. Both Lab and Con down exactly the same, 2.1%.

    Libs up 5.1, Green up 0.9, BXP down 0.9 (compared with UKIP).

    No reason yet to think the result will be any different.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1201161147333980171

  38. TURK

    @”Being a Tory I would plum for Johnson not because I like him ,my view of him has always been negative ,but because I believe the policies of Corbyn/McDonnell would be disastrous for the economy ”

    My position too. I’m in a safe Tory seat so could abstain as some sort of protest at this abysmal GE. But doing anything to encourage or facilitate a Corbyn/McDonnell administration is out for me.I could never forgive myself.

    My own -limited & anecdotal -impression of “how its going” over here is that the younger generation are desperate for Corbyn to win , incensed as they always are at life’s injustices.The shine has come off Magic Grandpa a bit-but they still buy into it all I think.

    My generation is pretty depressed at the leadership options on offer & generally apathetic about the current Political Class as a whole.

    One interesting snippet. I know of a group of what might be called the Brahmin Left. -Liberal , Intellectual Socialists who seem to be exhibiting some disenchantment with JC. Now this is surprising to me because the official version of things is that Corbyn has moved Labour away from the traditional ” Northern” working class towards this very group-urban ; London based.

    My own son is in this category & he seems to be considering a Green vote.

    So to me it is no surprise if these Polls continue to move towards NO OM.

    The country is crying out for sensible Centreist Politics with a Statesman like Leader

  39. I think the ICM poll is good for Labour despite the deficit compared to Cons still being 7%. Reaching an average of 35% GB-wide gives Labour a fair chance of getting a hung parliament.

    We simply don`t know where the extra 1% added to both Lab and Cons in the past week has come from – maybe stacked-up in certain constituencies, or maybe the result of tactical shifts.

    My wife and I have had to do a tactical shift in the past week, and the resulting postal vote is now in the letterbox. If a polling company had rang us earlier, our voting intention would have been different, and it could well be again if they ring after Dec 12th.

  40. “The country is crying out for sensible Centreist Politics with a Statesman like Leader”

    Actually, the polls tell us that nobody much wants your definition of a “centrist” . And who do you consider statesmanlike? Thatcher? Blair? Cameron?

    I think what you want is more Thatcherism – and hence more inequality, social division and increased wealth disparity. But just because you want it, doesn’t mean everybody else is crying out for it.

  41. My prediction is still Labour most seats if polls stay the same – and if the polls are within a couple of points by election day, a Lab majority.

  42. JIMJAM
    “Not really; actually more voters see it as the best campaign (31%) the %ages are not a rating.”

    Fair enough, but it still makes my point.

    Hal

    Fair enough to you too. I had assumed just another unbelievable promise on top of the current crazy manifesto. I committed the sin of not bothering to read the detail.

    Alec
    “you really ought to bear in mind the IFS assessment that the deficit would be higher under the Conservative plans if they fail to secure a trade deal by the end of next year.
    Given Johnson’s promises, most people see this outcome as inevitable.”

    I have of course seen what the IFS had to say. However surely what matters is what the voters think, not what the IFS thinks or what we geeks think. Looking again at recent polling there is a Deltapoll question.

    “Putting aside any support for a political
    party you may have, which of the following
    do you think would be best for the British
    economy?

    A Conservative government led by Boris
    Johnson with Sajid Javid as Chancellor of the
    Exchequer
    51%

    A Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn
    with John McDonnell as Chancellor of the
    Exchequer
    32%

    This mirrors the answers you get from other polls asking the same sort of question on the economy.

    Alec
    “Unless of course, you’re telling me Johnson isn’t telling the truth?”

    Who know’s? :-)

    FRED
    “He seems to have a winning way with many who come into contact with him. Something not always appreciated or recognised by most on this board.”

    Yes, I’ve noticed that too, I think you are right. I also think that many of the outrageous (to most here) things he says resonate with more voters than us geeks think. An example would be his “letterbox” comment.

    Millie
    “Your stats do not conflict with my observation. The Tories have run a lacklustre campaign, but people still apparently think it is better than Lab and the LDs…!”

    Deliberately low key I think, they remember 2017.

  43. @ JimJam
    Thanks.

    35% in ICM is the highest Lab have been in a v long time? ICM generally give a highish Lab vote?

    Some weeks ago a poster (I’ve forgotten his name I regret to say) kept noting how very & consistently well the Lib-Dems are doing/did do, in local bye-elections over the summer, autumn in & many regions; while the Tories were faltering & Lab slumping.

    Things have tightened v recently, tho sample is small. .

    AW always says, locals don’t mean much at all re GEs, but the figures have been striking in Lib-Dem target areas.

    I wonder if it will be 1983 all over again. Split opposition vote.

  44. Latest ICM reported by Reuters.
    2029 adults polled Nov 29th-Dec2nd.

    Cons 42 (+1)
    Lab 35 (+1)
    LD 13 (-)
    BX 3 (-1)

    No change.

  45. JimR
    “Now imagine a journalist turned into a politician running for pm, perhaps supported by a banker turned politician for chancellor…..”

    Very good :)
    ————————–
    TobyEbert
    “Of course the previous populist trick was privatisation, whereby the electorate were bribed with their own money.”

    Shares in privatised companies had to be paid for, so I don’t quite see how it was a bribe.

  46. ToH,

    Thanks the best for economy are significant imo as is the best PM which I said upthread. These suggest to me that the Tories will comfortably get more votes than Labour; at least 4% more and probably nearer 8%. The gaps on those 2 measures can’t be compensated for by any amount tactical voting, although it (TV) can moderate the advantage which is why an OM is not nailed on.

    Matt Singh has a rule of thumb about a %age advantage on best PM translating to a lead in Vote Share at the GE, perhaps someone can recall exactly?

  47. Two points of note for that ICM poll:

    1) The is the first poll from anyone to show Labour on 35%.
    2) The ICM poll ten days out in 2017 had Con 45% Lab 33%.

    A 7 point margin is much better than a 12 point gap, for Labour at least.

    @Turk – ““Another day another bribe from the Labour Party”

    As part of my instinctive desire to remind folks about how times past on UKPR maybe weren’t so different to the present, I was considering penning an occasional series entitled ‘Common UKPR expressions and What They Really Mean’.

    The first of these was going to be ‘electoral bribe’.

    It means ‘a popular policy or idea coming from your political opponents that you weren’t sharp enough to spot first’.

  48. On a mission to inform, our sad old BBC according to The Times:

    The BBC has withdrawn plans to release a publicity clip of tonight’s Panorama documentary about the Duke of York amid concerns about the sensitivity of the programme.

    The corporation had said it would issue an extract of an interview with Virginia Roberts Giuffre, who alleges she was trafficked to London by Jeffrey Epstein in 2001, when she was 17, and made to have sex with Prince Andrew.

    The duke, 59, has consistently denied the allegation.
    The BBC changed its promotional plans yesterday, with sources saying the decision had been made because of the “sensitive nature of the programme”.

  49. JIMJAM

    “Matt Singh has a rule of thumb about a %age advantage on best PM translating to a lead in Vote Share at the GE, perhaps someone can recall exactly?”

    Has he? If you find out what it was I would be interested. The “economy” and “best PM” have always been main drivers to me of what produces a government in elections.

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