We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

1 2 3 4 5 6 11
  1. @John33

    Simple rule applies… “don’t feed the trolls”.

    There are some posters in here with opposing political views to me who I read with respect (such as Colin, NeilA, JonesInBangor). Others (no names, no pack drill) are trolls, best ignored.

  2. John –

    On the previous page you said that I must have been in a coma at the time of the last election. I think therefore its difficult for you to attack my comment on Burgon as ‘juvenille or mind – numbingly base and uninformative’.

    To the best of my knowledge, I’ve never made any comments about individual posters on here.

    I don’t see that calling Burgon a cretin is any worse than lots of comments from others…nor of your comment about me!!!

    Adam

  3. @Profhoward

    Thanks for such a detailed account – much appreciated.

    @MOG

    Thanks. I am not sure it is trolling, more not making the effort engage sensibly in discussion. I don’t mean to appear self – righteous either; I let myself down the other day when I called Turk a twat. I regret that and was pulled up on it by someone. In absence of AW regulating posts, we need to hold each other to account more to uphold the standard, as best we can!

  4. @Adam

    You’re right. I think I believed it to be humorous st the time rather than an insult, but you make a good point. Apologies.

  5. I think its great to see politicians such as Rebecca Long Bailey and now Richard Burgeon who come from state schools being put forward. Rishi Sunak from the Tories is a very charming person, and i think a decent person, but he has all the advantages of going to one of the UK’s absolutely most expensive boarding schools. As did Mr Farage. In fact, during the debate, Mr Sunak actually tried to portray himself as rising up in a meritocratic system – he claimed he was the product of meritocracy – but I think a person with a Winchester College education cannot really claim that.

  6. No problem. Apology accepted!

    I guess there are no polls are out this evening are there?

  7. @ Charles

    I know Burgon from politics in Leeds, nuff said! I also know George Mudie his predecessor from Leeds East, someone I get on very well with.

  8. @Adam

    I honestly don’t think “in a coma” was meant as a personal affront. It was a way of saying “it was everywhere – noone could have missed it”.

    I happen to agree, by the way, that Corbyn’s unusual views on foreign affairs were largely priced in this time around. What seems to maybe having more impact is the left-wing manifesto, in that he’s seen as “red” more than he was. Of course, that’s a double-edged sword and may win as many votes as it loses (as of course is the idea).

    The one thing I haven’t really seen him taken to task for yet is the the ethics of non-means tested payouts – which seems to be a big part of Labour’s offer. Under his plans, comfortably off people will be getting a whole lot of free stuff (including, for some women, tens of thousands of pounds) and the idea that this is all going to come from bankers and the super-rich is fanciful in my opinion.

    But then, maybe he has been broached on this and dealt with it. I confess I have avoided / been unable to follow a lot of the campaign this time around for various reasons and largely rely on the BBC website and UKPR to keep me abreast of events.

  9. Adam

    If you were to read Anthony’s policy you might note that just because others post comments that you think are inappropriate, that does not justify your doing the same.

    As to your “whether you agree with Farage or not, he’s a very good public speaker”, I’m happy to agree with you.

    He enunciates clearly, pronounces an appropriate range of vowels and consonants, and speaks loudly – very, very loudly.

    I tire of public speakers who can’t be heard at the back of the room.

  10. The conventional wisdom seem to be that if the Con lead over Labour falls below 7% an OM becomes doubtful.

    However, it seems to me (and CB may be thinking similarly) that the actual vote shares matter as much.

    With 42/35 the Tories would lose few seats to the SNP and LDs and as such the 2.5% swing Lab-Con would deliver enough Lab seats; even if the swing is only 1/1.5% in Tory targets due to BXP standing they get 15 or so on UNS.

    Similarly at 39/32 the Tory losses to SNP and LDs are more likely to be sufficient to balance the Lab losses but even then some tactical voting would be required to get enough LD gains from Cons.

    My view, therefore, is that 7% would till yield a Tory OM and that the gap needs to close to 5% to be sure, 6% would be tight depending on actual vote shares.

    FWIW, I think CBs 41% low side is overstated as firming up DKs will reduce to the Tory VI down automatically and I think a 40% vote share on GE day, or even a tad lower is realistic. Whether Lab can reach 34% is another matter but 40/34 is certainly possible, maybe even 39/34.

    (NB CBs 41% maybe current VI not what he thinks is their floor not sure so apologies if I misinterpreted).

  11. “Impunity is privilege but it also depends on connivance. Duckenfield and the South Yorkshire Police thought they could get away with avoiding culpability and smearing the Liverpool fans not only because of their longstanding institutional privilege but because they believed they had the unstinting support of the government following the Miners’ Strike. The apparent rise in impunity in public life over the years reflects widening inequality and the associated rise in relative privilege. Boris Johnson is an extreme example of entitlement, but he is wholly representative of his class, as his own father’s recent patronising comments have made clear. His indulgence by most of the media is simple connivance, and the idea that he would be brought to book by Andrew Neil is wishful thinking (Neil’s loaded question technique prompts evasion in those who value honesty but it’s less effective if the interviewee is happy to lie). His refusal to submit to a grilling is not cowardice alone but the display of his privilege. That the BBC has thrown in the towel today shows that his expectation of deference was well-founded.”

    https://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.com/2019/11/impunity.html#comment-form

  12. Seamus Milne is an old boy of Winchester College, and Oxford … I doubt Winchester would be impressed by being put on a par with Dulwich College …

  13. @Bantams

    Reveal yourself! What do you do in the real world? You in the politics game? I know it’s nosey to ask but I am intrigued to learn!

  14. OldNat

    I guess its a matter of opinion. Personally I don’t think using ‘cretin’ to describe a politician is that bad. Burgon’s interviews with Kay Burley where he has claimed that Labour won the last election are cases which I would use to justify it.

    Again, I’ve never attacked any poster on here I dont believe, nor used profanities, which to me are more indefensible

    adam

  15. @Sam

    Of course, other opinions are available.

    Duckenfield’s acquittal was one of the most predictable outcomes in the history of the criminal courts. Milne is just linking all of his bugbear blanket and trying to smother Johnson with it.

    Johnson has many faults, but none of them have anything to do with Hillsborough, Orgreave or any other popular causes.

  16. Adam I know from AW’s postings that its a lot about a respectful *tone* of discussion as much as strict adherence to the letter of the comments policy.

    For what it’s worth I think calling someone a “cretin” is inappropriate and it is also disrespectful towards people with learning difficulties to use it as a term of abuse.

  17. Linking all of his bugbears into a bugbear blanket..

  18. What grates for me about Burgon is the combination of venom and rote-learning.

    He manages to deliver stock Labour campaign phrases as if they were obscenities being screamed into the face of someone who had just run over his foot.

  19. A quote from Matt Singh you might all be interested in:

    “Note that unlike last time, it’s not YouGov’s plan to publish the daily outputs of its MRP model, although they have promised one more update before the election. “

  20. Adam

    “I guess its a matter of opinion”

    Indeed – but the only one whose opinion actually matters on this issue is Anthony’s.

    You may not care if comments become unavailable on this site, Many of us do, and we also remember (most of the time) that being discourteous to the host is very caddish behaviour.

  21. Hal

    Thanks for that.

  22. ProfHoward

    Again, I haven’t used ‘cretin’ about anyone on here, nor have ever insulted any poster. I don’t believe it also has any links to learning difficulties as far as I’m aware, though I do agree with you that doing something like would be disrespectful to others and would overstep the mark.

    Synonyms are half-wit, idiot, imbecile, moron: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/cretin

    Had I referred to Burgon as a half-wit I cant see anyone would have taken offence!!!

    Adam

  23. “Trump and Johnson are both inveterate liars. They lie when they have no need to, just for effect. To take some recent examples. He told Andrew Marr that the Tories don’t do deals with other parties, when everyone can remember the Coalition government and the DUP. (Marr, as so often with interviewers, let that pass.) Johnson has said that the extra money he has allowed for the health service is the biggest boost for a generation. In fact it is smaller than the increase in spending from Labour from 2004 onwards. There are many like this. He has lied all his life, and been sacked from jobs twice for doing so. He lies about lying! No UK politician in living memory has lied like this.

    A consequence of that is you cannot trust a word he says. When he and his ministers say that the NHS will not be part of any trade negotiations with the US, it means nothing. Brexit puts the UK in a very weak position because the political costs of walking away, while the costs for the US are zero. So of course the NHS and things that affect the NHS will be part of any trade deal.

    When he says that he will get a trade deal with the EU in just a year he is lying. It is just not possible given the reasons the Conservatives want to leave the EU. So voters will have to decide which lie he will choose: to break his undertaking not to extend the transition period or to leave with no deal.”

    Wren-Lewis does not mention what was said about trade between GB and NI or the Queen’s speech. A torrent. Will it be fact-checked – perhaps by the Conservative party?

    https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/

  24. Anyway, the fact that we are having this conversation is a good thing. It makes us all more conscious of what we say on here. UKPR has been invaluable to me over recent years and is a brilliant source of information, both statistically and as well as the deep knowledge some posters on here possess. It is a bit of a treasure and would be sorely missed.

  25. Hal – I read somewhere a second MRP on 10th or 11th.

  26. @ Jim Jam

    There’s a big MRP on the 12th :)

  27. WRT polls tonight, looking at the last two weeks there was a Survation one for Good Morning Britain released either very late on Sunday night or early Monday morning.

  28. AW

    How much would we have to pay for daily MRP updates?

  29. Adam

    I don’t want to be the self-appointed policeman of the rules. I think AW just wants a fairly polite level of discussion above all, but also one that is more about polling and not about which party is better. I am sure we can manage that even if sometimes we need to discuss what we should and shouldn’t say. I’ve not myself noticed anything bad in your style. There are some others i think do go over the line so I don’t see you as an offender at all in general even if on the specific word “cretin” I think that’s probably best avoided.

  30. Frosty when are you expecting the GMB one?

  31. NEIL A

    Your reference to Milne when referring to my post is incomprehensible. I made no mention of it. It is irrelevant what Timoney says about Duckenfield or Orgreave. The point remains that Johnson uses his position to be dishonest aided by the connivance of the media. You make no reference about the substance of the post.

    And today a l!e about child poverty.

  32. RE: the Labour antisemitism thing, not poll related, but since it’s been discussed here. Here is an article detailing the statistical and other evidence of the extent of the issue, which some people might find enlightening.

    https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/article/check-evidence/

  33. @CrossBat 11 I’m afraid I’d always assumed that loyalty to the leadership was the reason for the exposure of Long Bailey and Burgon in these debates. If Labour wanted to be well represented they’d have sent Thornberry…..

    Adam Price going after Labour is hardly a surprise; in all of PC’s marginals except Ceredigion Labour are the main opposition and more strategically he’s after Labour votes in 2021 in the next Welsh general election. That doesn’t mean PC MPs won’t generally vote the same way as Labour at Westminster but the rivalry and enmity is deep in the way it can only be between parties who are after the same voters

  34. Trump and Johnson are both inveterate l!ars. They l!e when they have no need to, just for effect. To take some recent examples. He told Andrew Marr that the Tories don’t do deals with other parties, when everyone can remember the Coalition government and the DUP. (Marr, as so often with interviewers, let that pass.) Johnson has said that the extra money he has allowed for the health service is the biggest boost for a generation. In fact it is smaller than the increase in spending from Labour from 2004 onwards. There are many like this. He has l!ed all his life, and been sacked from jobs twice for doing so. He l!es about l*ing! No UK politician in living memory has l!ed like this.

    A consequence of that is you cannot tr*st a word he says. When he and his ministers say that the NHS will not be part of any trade negotiations with the US, it means nothing. Brexit puts the UK in a very weak position because the political costs of walking away, while the costs for the US are zero. So of course the NHS and things that affect the NHS will be part of any trade deal.”

    More examples from today’s interview.

    https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/

  35. @Grichal

    That’s a very interesting piece of research you’ve shared there and I thank you for it. It offers a welcome counterweight to the mainstream media groupthink treatment of the issue.

    I notice now that Richard Burgon is not merely repulsive, he’s a repulsive cretin too. Be Gods, time to get out of here.

    Goodnight and Match of the Day can’t come soon enough. Villa on first too!

  36. @Sam

    My apologies I saw the post following yours and thought it was attributing the quote to Milne. Other than that I am not sure why you think my comment didn’t address the substance of the post?

    Surely the article you quote from starts with the acquittal of Duckenfield and then attempts to follow a thread from this to Johnson’s alleged dishonesty via the theme of “impunity”?

    Is that not the argument it’s making? Or the one I am disputing?

  37. @Chris in Cardiff,

    And of course, PC specifically are tilting to be the government of Wales, not the UK. That’s one-horse race, Labour. More than anything they want to be the other horse.

  38. It’s worth noting that JVL are a much maligned group within the Jewish community and they are routinely dismissed as cranks and ‘kapos’ by many. I think being a left wing Jewish person who is supportive of Corbyn, the rights of Palestinians and speaks about MSM narratives and those of senior Jewish figures, can be a very challenging experience.

  39. I haven’t seen Johnson’s interview, but surely the answer “the Conservative Party doesn’t do deals” would have been in response to a question about pre-election pacts? If it was specifically about post-election government then of course it would be absurd.

  40. Sam, about East Lothian

    My son is still thinking it might go to SNP, but the Tories have no chance – their vote will be well down on the 16000 in 2017.

    Leaflets have arriving fairly evenly from the candidates, but not many posters are up.

    However, we didn`t have long to talk – the Hong Kong troubles have caught up with him, and a fire conference largely in a centre is now largely being skyped. So son is having to revise his presentation and perform in 2 hours.` time.

  41. It seems the site has begun to attract party drones as we head towards the 12th.
    Easily spotted they have a preference to put up links to pro party sites as if somehow that proves the point they are making.
    Or they reference a party Leader over and over again mostly in derogatory terms.
    Of course let’s not forget the old cut and past of somebody else’s quote.
    Soon no doubt we will have the usual I’ve supported this party all my life but now I’m going to vote for another party (the one they normally vote for).
    The alternative to this one is to reference a friend or family member doing the same thing.

    These are only my observations and I would be the first to admit at some stage over the years we have all been guilty of the above in some form or other. But it still makes me smile when new people turn up in the last few weeks of a general election and try it on as if we haven’t read it all before. :-)

  42. @Bantams – You are clearly not someone who automatically dislikes his political opponents and i can see that Burgon might be difficult to like. Sunak by contrast is clearly pretty charming. On the evidence, however, neither can be regarded as stupid.but both of them just basically repeated party lines.

  43. Having googled it, it seems the question was about a pact with the Brexit Party. So he didn’t l!e. His answer is simply being taken out of context by people who know better, and who are therefore effectively ly!ing themselves.

  44. @john33

    I’d love it if this site were moderated, but who could be trusted to be neutral volunteers? I think that’s how moderating usually works.

    Delighted you’re able to say twat on here though.

  45. @Adam – “Had I referred to Burgon as a half-wit I cant see anyone would have taken offence!!!”

    Really?

    I think you need to self review.
    We try to do a bit better than that on here, notwithstanding all of us sometimes failing. When we do, a swift withdrawal is usually suffice.

    Have a wee think.

  46. I think Mr Sunak will be one of the candidates in the next Tory party leadership election.

  47. @Turk

    Strange isn’t it… of all the sites on the world wide web I think this is the one with the fewest ‘undecideds’ who might actually change their mind about anything!

  48. @Crichal I find your link useful. Thanks.

  49. Grichal

    Thanks for that link.

    It doesn’t really matter that it isn’t poll related, as matters that affect polling are also legitimate topics on this site – and media portrayal certainly affects the attitudes that result in the VI that polling records.

    I’ve made the point many times on here that “othering” was a good survival mechanism from Paleolithic times onwards, so it is fairly deeply ingrained in the human psyche.

    That doesn’t mean that it should be acceptable in the 21st century. Indeed it needs to be progressively eliminated from what are considered acceptable views.

    That every one of us will hold some kind of prejudice against some other groups in society is inevitable – just look at the tribalism of the left/right divide!

    If humans need some form of tribalism, then maybe only allowing it around sport is the only safe way – that may even be true for Villa fans. :-)

  50. Turk

    “But it still makes me smile when new people turn up in the last few weeks of a general election and try it on as if we haven’t read it all before. :-)”

    How true!

1 2 3 4 5 6 11