We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. Turncoat

    You’re in a very, very small minority!! Polls have shown that Tory Remain votes are, roughly, split this time 60%-70% still with Con, c.25%-30% moving to LD and then the tiny remander either not voting or Labour.

    Adam

  2. I thought the BBC had ruled out a Johnson/Marr interview and then would you believe it…pretty feeble.

  3. ChrisLane1945, where art thou? You haven’t been cookied or cached away from us, have you? An honourable 2-2 draw between United and Villa at Old Trafford tonight and our first visit since 2009 that hasn’t ended with defeat. Villa shaded the first half and United the second, but a draw was a fair result by all accounts. Grealish’s opener for Villa well is worth watching on MOTD tonight, I’m told by youngest son who was at the match. Grealish is a seriously talented footballer and a joy to watch. Good to see the Villa playing United again. Like old times.

    @Turk/Adam

    Corbyn is guilty of soft-pedalling with instances of anti-semitic comments on the far Left in Labour, but he’s no anti-semite himself and, belatedly, is cracking down on it much harder now. I don’t think anti-semitism is rife in the Labour Party, nor do I think Islamophobia and other forms of racism are rife in the Tory Party. I’m guessing there are racists and boneheads in all political parties, although the antisemitism saga within Labour has been weaponised as an issue by Corbyn’s enemies in the media and megaphoned constantly as a stick with which to beat him. He’s been foolish to allow it fester.

    As I’ve said before it really is a silly own goal by Corbyn and Labour. As I know well, it’s a party with many Jewish members, MPs and voters and, until only 4 years ago actually had a Jewish leader. It has never threatened, nor ever will, any race or creed when in government. The party contains thousands of wonderful anti-racist campaigners too. It’s being traduced by its enemies and Corbyn should have nailed it long ago.

  4. The anti semitism arguments are really about Palestine v Israel.

    Nearly all (obviously not all) the accusations are complete drivel, especially the politically motivated Board of Deputies and latterly Boris’s best pal, the Chief Rabbi.

  5. Adam,
    “In 2017 Con had a leader who wasn’t known well at the start to the wider electorate but became an increasing liability as the campaign went on and became a subject of ridicule by the end”

    Not wishing to engage in pantomime, but May continued to be popular after the election (so her support certainly didnt crash), and the stories about her during it seem to have mirrored those about Johnson now. For example, both sending stand-ins to debates.

    Adam,
    “In 2017, Corbyn and his questionable past wasn’t known to the majority of the electorate”

    Corbyn had been attacked hugely by his own side, never mind con! Corbyn’s alleged terrorist connections, plus support for anti-israeli groups was a long standing criticism. There have been long standing attempts to equate criticism of the policies of Israel with being antisemitic.

    ” Labour’s might be vaguely similar but their position is undermined by firstly having oscillated wildly over the last two years and by being a policy which neither Leave nor Remain voters like. ”

    They havnt oscillated. They have always fence sat. The 2017 manifesto saying they would negotiate but not accept a bad deal is pretty much the line they have maintained throughout. Leave have argued that the result of a referendum must be respected for democratic reasons, leading to labour taking their point and stating they will hold another precisely so that democracy is respected. No doubt leave fear losing it having won the last, while remain would prefer a straight cancellation of Brexit. But labour has stuck to a middle path.

    Whether this has alienated leavers, well they werent going to support labour anyway. As to remainers, they might be sulking, but in the end labour is offering remain, if it is the democratic result of a second referendum. So they are offering remainers what they want. Most of all, remainers have no choice. There is no other party they can vote for (in most places) in order to deliver remain.

    Labour’s stance might well alienate remainers from labour in the longer term. But right now it offers them their best chance for what they want.

  6. Good posts turncoat. I like the cut of your gib.
    You see We women know how to behave. Pity there aren’t more of us in this testosterone soaked cesspit::~)

  7. Turncoat

    “if you really want to stop [X] the only way to do so is to vote [Party Y]” is really just the election slogan pushed by every party – and blatantly untrue.

    There can be a number of ways to stop [X], if that is a strategy being pursued by a particular party. You chose the example of Brexit and Lab/Con marginals. In such seats, I wouldn’t disagree that voting Labour is likely to be the best way to prevent the Tories having an additional MP to vote for their strategy.

    In other constituencies, with different political dynamics, voting Labour might be a really stupid thing to do instead of voting for Party Z, who has a chance of ensuring that a Remainer wins.

    While every party repeats the same meaningless trope that “in your constituency, vote for us – no matter how pointless that is”, that often isn’t backed up by actual campaigning and fielding only paper candidates. Of course, in marginal seats, those paper candidates will still get some votes that would be better cast differently.

    Still, that’s how parties operate within the foolish FPTP system that the archaic political system of the UK insists on clinging to.

  8. Crossbat

    Agree that the vast majority of the Labour party arent anti-semitic and that its only a small minority. Its pretty damning though that Jewish MPs felt like they had to leave – thats a very strong action which they took and wouldnt have taken lightly.

    Adam

  9. TURNCOAT

    Re your comments on racism in the political parties. I suggest we who post here are all self-opinionated political geeks. Surely what matters on this issue as on all others is how the majority of voters see it.

    The latest Deltapoll has some polling on Islamophobia in the Conservative party and Antisemitism in the Labour party. The main findings were as follows:

    Conservative Party is Islamophobic 39%
    B Johnson is Islamophobic 23%

    Labour Party is antisemitic 65%
    G Corbyn is antisemitic 42%

  10. I cannot believe Richard Burgon was sent to do the debate tonight!!

  11. Adam,

    Perhaps I am in a small minority – who knows? But it very much depends on how you define a “Tory Remainer” and which constituency they are in.

    What is a Tory remainer: Somebody who voted Tory in 2017? One who voted Tory in the last three elections? A lifelong Tory voter? Answers on a postcard…..

    The reality is, supporting Boris in 2019 then clearly party allegiance trumps any views on Brexit – so the EU position would be rather soft. However, in many LAB/CON marginals the fact is that a vote for LD is a protest vote that will simply allow the CON candidate to come through the middle. Of course in safe CON / LAB seats where a LD vote won’t make a difference to the result then it doesn’t matter how you vote…..

  12. John33 –

    Agreed. I don’t like his politics so am naturally coloured against him, however he comes across to me as a repulsive, angry individual. I’d have thought they’d send someone who might appear more grown up, like Starmer

    Adam

  13. Adam

    It was more in relation to his general lack of competence. I can only hope nobody is watching!

  14. Sam @ 6.15 pm

    I have no further info on East Lothian, but thanks for yours. I will report any more insights from my son, but wasn`t expecting a phone call just yet after the ELothian Athletics team have had a long day at the Emirates.

    I do see on that Tactical Voting link posted upthread that it is a difficult one-off seat, and that the site is advising to vote Labour there.

    Thanks too to several posters who advised those faced with messages on the non-availability of UKPR to clear their cache. I do notice that happily we help each other here irrespective of political outlook.

    So could I add for those like me weak on managing the basics on our laptops, that clearing caches might remove passwords from signing-in procedures. So have the latest ones available to get back into favourite or needed sites.

  15. @Adam

    “Its pretty damning though that Jewish MPs felt like they had to leave – thats a very strong action which they took and wouldnt have taken lightly.”

    It is, although Berger and Leslie had ideological objections to the direction of travel Labour was taking under Corbyn and I think their departure to the Lib Dems and Change UK became a bit conflated with the antisemitism row within the party. They were soul mates of Umannu and were probably on their way out of the party anyway. Berger was vilified disgracefully by elements of her local party, but only a few of those were antisemitic attacks as far as I’m aware. One antisemitic attack is one too many, I accept, but most of her opponents were criticising her political position, nothing else.

    Ian Austin, not Jewish himself, banged the antisemitism drum loudly about Corbyn, but he too was an ideological refugee from Labour. He’d floated off to the right and, I think, may have been using the antisemitism card a bit opportunistically. Another man who was leaving anyway, I suspect.

  16. @Adam

    “…as a repulsive, angry individual”

    Whatever your views about Burgon’s politics, that’s a rather unpleasant ad hominen attack on him, isn’t it?

    Repulsive????

    Good grief.

  17. Turncoat,
    “A Tory majority will pretty much guarantee that we leave the EU on Jan 31st. Anything less will keep the possibility of remaining or a much softer Brexit on the table.”

    I am personally sceptical whether it is practical to leave by jan 31. A decent majority would allow con 5 years to sort things out, so a delay is entirely possible. Another broken promise really wouldnt matter in the long term, especially if it minimised brexit chaos. As to whether we ended up with a soft brexit, a big conservative majority tells us nothing about what a final deal might be, soft or hard. Johnson’s deal gained support because it leaves this open.

    Adam,
    “You really don’t think Labour has a problem with anti-semitism?!? Why have various Jewish MPs left the party?”

    It has a problem with perception, but with reality of it -no. Why have a lot of people left the party (and a lot more joined)…because of the policy of its leader. Which to the point includes being critical of israeli occupation of neighbouring countries. A longstanding israeli defence against such criticism has been to accuse the accuser of antisemitism.

    Antisemitism is unfounded criticism of jews intended to cause them harm as a group. Criticism based on a legitimate grievance is not antisemitism, but it might well cause a supporter of the state of Israel to resign.

  18. Crossbat.

    Yes, repulsive = extremely unpleasant or unacceptable https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/repulsive

    Have a look at some videos of his speeches etc on YouTube!

    Adam

  19. @ The Other Howard,
    Of course those figures are unsurprising….the media is dominated by the Tory press. And perception is reality. But that doesn’t change the facts that Johnson has a track record of making offensive remarks about minorities.

    @Oldnat,
    I think we’re broadly in agreement, however, as Boris claims that all Tory candidates have signed up to his WA the only way to prevent Brexit at the end of Jan is to vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the conservative one. It is true that there will be conservative remain-y candidates who will want to influence a closer relationship with the EU but for some that will be too little too late.

  20. Johnson’s lies to the BBC on the Marr Show have received little comment.

  21. It seems unwise to consider “anti-Semitism”, “anti-capitalism”, “anti-European” (or possibly “anti-{or pro-} any other bloody thing”) without having an eye on the international political interests that may be in play, as well as the individual bigotry that folk will have.

    For example, Con, Lab & LD all have “Friends of Israel” groups, who are well funded by the state of Israel.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_lobby_in_the_United_Kingdom#Friends_of_Israel

    Labour and SNP both have “Friends of Palestine” groups (though I doubt they are funded by the Palestinian National Authority).

    Right wing US foundations fund right wing “think tanks” in the UK to pursue their political objectives.

    Russia deploys extensive digital resources to destabilise “Western” regimes, I understand, and presumably China does too.

    Just as the UK tries to influence events in the rest of the world, to its advantage, other states and interests do the same here.

  22. @Norbold

    Why should anyone support the Lib Dems in Colchester? The fact that you ask this question shows what a good one it is. And it applies not just to Colchester but to other constituencies where Labour came second in 2017 such as Wimbledon.

    The site itself gives two reasons a) as has already been pointed out the Libdems have held the seat in the past (from 1997 to 2010 when the had 48 percent of the vote. They lost it in 2015 dropping 20 percentage points and then dropped a further 10 percentage points in 2017 thus coming below Labour. The second reason given is that the Libdems had a swing towards them of around 7 percent in the recent council elections when they had 26% of the popular vote as against 35 per cent for the conservatives and 18 per cent for Labour.

    My own feeling is that there are certain seats where Labour are never going to win and this sad fact has to be accepted. Essentially these are seats where anyone who is going to win has to take votes off the conservatives. The examples of constituency polls posted by Nick P and Frosty show the potential for this. In one the Libdems appeared to have taken 13 points off the conservatives and 11 off Labour.

    The contrasting effect where the Libdems switch to Labour appears to be less dramatic – there was one where Labour had climbed 5 percentage points most likely because of Libdem switching. I suspect this effect is reduced because a) Libdem tactical voting was very strong last time and b) they now contain a coalition of Blairites and Conservatives who have lost their natural home and these are not going to vote for Corbyn.

    All that said, we cannot expect Labour activists who have managed to come second in difficult seats and have had their full of what they perceive as Lib Dem dirty tricks to accept the advice of these sites. The fact of the matter, however, is that if their advice was consistently followed, I suspect that labour could, even now, become the largest party. That is my hope and why if i were living in Colchester (I did once live in the Witham constituency) I would vote Lib Dem. And that’s not because i don’t want Labour to do well. It is because I would believe it is the only way they can.

  23. Whether you agree with Farage or not, he’s a very good public speaker. He’s the biggest danger for Con at the moment

  24. @Adam


    Whether you agree with Farage or not, he’s a very good public speaker. He’s the biggest danger for Con at the moment”

    Given he is not standing against any of their MPs, I’d be interested to know how you come to that conclusion?

    Personally. I’d say he’s their best get out the Brexit vote activist.

  25. A friend of my brother’s travelled down from Durham last year to attend the funeral of Max Levitas, a 103 year old East End Jew who fought against Moseley’s fascists in the Battle of Cable Street in 1938.
    Sitting quietly at the back was Jeremy Corbyn.

  26. Jones

    Just watching the debate on ITV at the moment which he’s on. My reason for saying he’s the biggest danger for Con is just because Brexit party are more likely to take votes off Con in marginal seats. I think prospective Con voters are more likely to swtich to Brexit party than other parties. This debate is giving him a platform.

    Adam

  27. I think Labour’s decision to field Long-Bailey and Burgon in the recent multi-party TV debates confirms my view that they’ve concluded they need some attack dogs in the field over these last 10 days of the campaign now as they try to get up to that 35-36% VI that might deny Johnson his minority.

    I think 35-36% is the maximum that can be achieved for Labour in this particular election but if it plays a Tory 41%, their low side VI I think, on December 12th, then it may just be enough to stymie Johnson. Interestingly, the polls are suggesting that Labour are edging ever closer to that magic number now.

    I think we might see Thornberry given a run out soon too. She plainly loathes Johnson and gets right under his skin. She’s not afraid to go below the belt either, as of course is Johnson. Raab likes some bare-knuckling too.

    Fasten your seat belts, ladies and gentlemen! Time for the bruisers has arrived.

    :-)}

  28. Evening all from a very cold PSRL

    Spent the day in central London – you wouldn’t know an election was on. In general I am finding outside of groups of political obsessives, most people remain fairly disengaged.

    I think over the past 2.5 years the electorate’s generally negative perception of Corbin has crystallised to such an extent that it will prove impossible to reverse in the short period of a campaign. Labour’s strategy was based on an assumption that during the reporting rules of an election he would be able to cut through- this doesn’t seem to have happened.

    In all elections parties to a certain extent have to take certain sections of their support for granted. What I find really surprising is Labour seem to have take their trad base in the midlands and North for granted and underestimated their willingness to not vote Labour. All the evidence seem to point to this being driven by anti-Corbin sentiment. Given the Tory’s strategy for this he were obvious I am a bit perplexed why Labour seemingly not focused on this group.

    I am convinced this election will be decided by the extent loyalty the Labour brand keeps sufficient numbers of there voters on side.

  29. “This Prime Minister (& Home Secretary) are both lying to us#Marr”

    I don’t understand why the Tories don’t employ @Pete B (perhaps they do). He has an excellent skill of cutting words out of a quotation, make a sentence of the bits that plainly says the opposite than the quotation, and then people engage with his fake quotation.

    Simples!

  30. Crossbat

    Yes, 35%-36% would start to get into nervous territory for me. Their average from the 5 polls last night was 32.6%, the average from the 5 midweek polls was 32.4% so personally, I’m hoping that the apparent flat-lining continues!

    Adam

  31. Adam,

    You have to compare like with like. Looking at the recent polls compared with the same one a week previously gives:

    YG C=, L+4
    OP C-1, L+3
    BMG C-2, L+4
    CR C+1, L+1
    PB C=, L=2

    The momentum is very much with Labour (Ha!) but whether this continues we have to wait and see, of course. Even if it continues at the same rate, it only takes us into hung parliament territory. Colin’s investment portfolio should be safe.

  32. Whoops, PB is L+2.

  33. Hal

    Appeciate different pollsters have different methdologies etc – I was more just trying to bucket them together on the basis of when released – also if you take enough polls, they vagaries will start to be ironed out.

    Lets see whether they break out of the 31-34 range over the next few days. Its not obvious that anything has happened over the last few days to move things, so changes more likely to come from people starting to tihnk about which way to vote given the GE is almost upon us.

    Adam

  34. Laszlo
    Please stop the ad hominem attacks.

  35. Won’t some people have already voted by post? Do the pollsters ask this, or take it into account in any way (e.g. by estimating how many voted this way last time)?

  36. @ Crossbat11

    That’s exactly what Burgon is! The 4 day week is only an aspiration now! I’m planning to go to the moon, might take a wee while. I’m off into the garage now with the plans I drew up on the back of an envelope.

    Well done at Old Trafford by the way! Deserved better! Leicester keep chugging on, doing a Liverpool today.

  37. Redrich,
    ” Labour’s strategy was based on an assumption that during the reporting rules of an election he would be able to cut through- this doesn’t seem to have happened.”

    Surely labour’s strategy is based upon FPP electoral system, which means if you want to stop brexit, you have to vote labour.

    If we had proportional representation, libs might now be ahead of lab and on target for 150-200 seats. While BxP would be doing maybe 100-150. SNP might be doing 50-100, what with stray votes from England. Greens would get some. Very very different.

  38. Richard Burgon is useless with a capital U!

  39. Not sure even Diane Abbott would have done as badly as Burgon this evening. Utter cretin. Amazing that Labour selected him for this

  40. Interesting ending from Jo Swinson – clear call for people voting Tory that in many seats Lib Dems are the only challenger. Seems to have switched away from attacking Labour.

  41. In 2015 and 2017 there was a lot of discussion in UKPR of bookies odds. Nothing at all this time, and for a good reason: at no time in the last 18 months has there been any value in the markets.

    Last time I put my tenner on a hung parliament at 7/1 when the election was called. Not been tempted this time at all.

    I did, though, put a tenner on Leicester City to win the league at 125/1 five weeks ago (an hour before they thrashed Southampton 9-0). They’re now 20/1. (*smug grin*)

  42. I thought both Mr Burgon and Mr Sunak did well. To be honest I think they all did well in terms of the debate.

  43. @Bantams & Adam

    Respectfully, I won’t rely on your judgements on his performance due to partisan bias, particularly the use of the word ‘ cretin’. Can anyone else offer a more balanced critique? The wife wouldn’t let me watch – she is at the end of her tether with my politics currently!

  44. @ profhoward

    Were you watching the same program?

  45. I think on the whole Mr Burgeon should be happy that he was able to tie Trump and the NHS together – I think he did that very effectively.

    The progressive candidates were able to link Trump and Johnson together in terms of their attitudes to Muslims, women, and the LGBT community.

  46. @ John33

    LOL. I should have been watching Dark Materials but the BBC went on the blink for 10 minutes so I continued watching the debate. Will catch up on the dust tomorrow!

  47. “Not sure even Diane Abbott would have done as badly as Burgon this evening. Utter cretin. Amazing that Labour selected him for this.”

    Although new to this site, I have been an avid reader for a few years. The main reason was that, largely, UKPR is above the sort of low – grade nonsense that plagues Twitter and comments sections on other media. None of us can help our political bias but we can at least make an effort to frame it in a way that isn’t juvenille or mind – numbingly base and uninformative.

  48. Generally I thought it was a non-event.

    Sunak, who I like, came across surprisingly plastic in the pre-prepared bits but better in the open debate.

    Farage, who I dont really like, started well but then his defence of Trump’s comments about women started things going wrong for him.

    Accept that I don’t like Burgon so that would influence my views on his performance.

    The most interesting thing I thought was the Plaid guy regularly going after Labour

  49. @Bantams @Adam He didn’t appeal to me and he clearly doesn’t appeal to you. But then I find Johnson so abhorrent that I can’t understand how he appeals to anyone but he clearly does. Fact is that Burgon went to Cambridge which is usually a mark of reasonable intelligence, comes from Leeds, and was the first person to go to university from his family. So perhaps he is a sign that Labour is starting to give a proper priority to its ‘northern heartlands’.

    For my money Nicola Sturgeon was far the best performer and started to outline as needs to be done the kind of policies a labour government might be able to get through if Labour became the biggest party.

  50. John33

    The ITV questions were actually quite good for Burgeon.

    For example the one on Brexit asked whether any of the parties had a policy on Brexit that could bring the people and the union together – that was perfect for Mr Burgeon because Labour has as its brexit position one of having a unifying position.

    Then there was a whole question devoted to Mr Trump. The Welsh PC leader, Adam Price, quoted Mr Trumps famout “grab em” line… and used the p word. This added a lot of excitement and I think was Farage’s and Mr Sunak’s weakest moment as they both defended Trump.

    Then the question on the NHS was very heavily linked to the problems of Trump and privatization. Here Ms Sturgeon and Mr Burgeon were a good partnership. It’s clear that the social democratic values of Ms Sturgeon and Mr Burgeon lined up here against Mr Farage and Mr Sunak.

    On the economy, again Ms Sturgeon was able to point out that her tax policies, that raise the rate for top earners, was a fair way to do things – something that was helpful to Labour which has a similar policy.

    Ms Swinson was able to come across well on most points and I think put in a pretty solid performance.

    The debate started off with a focus on the issue of terrorism. Here Mr Burgeon made the point that there was a need to invest in police and fire public service etc. Mr Sunak was quite political here claiming that the early release was due to a Labour policy that the Tories had since reversed. Mr Burgeon said this matter should not be politicised in this way and disputed Mr Sunak’s version.

    Mr Farage was quite strong to begin – with a tough line on terrorists etc – with but lost his strength as the debate proceeded because he was fored into defending Mr Trump by Mr Price. Mr Price was particularly good at challenging Mr Farage on some of the things Trump had said.

    The green leader (Sian Berry) was I think good but didn’t get that much time.

    There was a question about whether people would use the Nuclear button. I think Mr Burgeon made the reasonable point that its not a great type of politics for people to try to out-matcho each other in terms of how willing they were to press a button and kill millions of people. He made clear that he is opposed to nuclear weapons but that Labour believes in renewing Trident. Mr Sunak, Ms Swinson, and Mr Farage had been quite quick to say they were willing to use it in the right circumstances.

    I think the debate was well run and there were no obvious losers or weak performers but there was a clear dividing line between the values of the different parties. In that sense I think it was helpful to viewers.

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