We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. @Bantams

    Clear your cache (browsing history)

  2. @ Sam

    Corbyn will vote in a “second” referendum but still won’t say which way he will vote.

    Sooner or later Corbyn will be judged unfit for office …. or anything. When?

  3. @Andrew Myers

    I agree. The cold water on dreams of a Corbyn rally has to be the fact that we assume that the polling profession have adjusted their models for the unexpected voter behaviour from last time.

  4. you are in for a bit of a shock…

  5. I don’t know what it’s like up north or west but round here the hordes of Corbynista are out on a charm offensive

  6. Well not actually round here, but towards Croydon and London anyway

  7. @ JonesinBangor

    Done, thanks.

  8. @ProfHoward

    It’s simple maths. Using the 2019 Colchester local election data there was a total of 43,000 votes or 2,500 votes/ward. Give the winner 50%, that’s 1,250 votes. Taking median life expectancy as 83 years and voting from 18 means median voting life is 65 years, so 38 years is 58% of median voting life. and therefore only 42% of those voting in 1981 would still be alive to vote now (or about 500 votes in total).

    I would have to go back to the actual 1970s results to get a more accurate estimate, but it’s clear we are only talking about a few hundred people.

    @CMJ

    I have said before on this site that I think that Swinson’s decision to go for Revoke that the Party leadership pushed through conference was made because she feared being outflanked by Labour. Had Labour gone for 2nd Referendum and campaign for Remain at their conference the following week then she would have nowhere to go, having alread refused to back Corbyn under any circumstances.

    That said, it was still a bad decision and the culmination of a series of bad decisions. Even back in 1983 with the SDP/Liberal Alliance almost level-pegging with Labour they still only managed just over 20 MPs. 326 MPs was a fatuous claim.

  9. NickP

    You’re right that labour polled much better than Lib Dems last time around, but that was in a context of Lib Dem collapse, local pro-Corbyn enthusiasm, and a poor lib dem candidate. Historically, The lib dems have often run Con pretty close in the constituency – in 2000 they were within a thousand votes of winning; Add as impressive a candidate as Dr Wollaston into the mix, and you’d think they have a chance (as the bookies do). Labour have no chance.

  10. With all the attention on Labour and a surge/not surge, we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that it’s the Lib Dems that present a potential threat to many Con seats.

    National polling and received wisdom suggests Lib Dems have blown it and will once again be the cinderella party, but some experience on the ground tells a different story.

  11. @NickP
    ‘One of the problems with Corbyn is that her demonisation of Corbyn (and Johnson) meant that on the ground there was no way any tactical deals could be done.’

    Which came first, Swinson saying she couldn’t work with Corbyn, or Corbyn refusing to discuss tactics and making it quite clear that Labour would fight all 633 seats with no pacts, formal or otherwise?

    It does take two to tango, and I have not seen any realistic prospect of the Labour hierarchy being willing to work in any way with other parties (including Greens and PC as well as Lib Dems) at an electoral level.

    A good example is raised higher up the thread – Labour will never win Totnes, so why are they fighting it hard? There are dozens of similar seats all over southern England that Labour are still fighting but may take them away from the Lib Dems.

    The LDems are fighting paper campaigns in all but their (roughly) 100 target seats… admittedly these include Wimbledon, Putney and Kensington, which seems to be the main Labour bone of contention, however two of these three seem to me to be pretty logical (I don’t get Putney, I will freely admit; and I would personally have preferred that the LDems laid off Kensington as well despite the logic).

  12. LeftieLiberal

    Yes, it’s simple maths about the actual number of people from the 1970s left who might have voted for Russell but he carried with him left wing credentials, attracting people who might otherwise vote Labour and he seemed to have the best chance to beat the Tories, which indeed he did.

    However, the collapse in the LibDem vote for reasons we all know well meant that the left completely deserted him and the LibDems in Colchester.

    It still remains the case that in 2017, Labour received over twice as many votes as the LibDems, 18,888 to 9087 35.3% to 17%. With Labour just 5677 votes behind the Tories.

    To encourage people to vote tactically for the LibDems is more or less guaranteed to hand the seat over to the Tories as, of course, being so close, Labour are not going to give up the seat without a fight. Unless, of course, people on the ground have more sense and see that it is really a Tory/Labour fight.

  13. With what might be an election won or lost on fine margins, no political party can afford to alienate demographic groups, particularly ones who are influential and media-savvy. Here’s an interesting take on gay voters and how Johnson may be alienating them.

    Not surprising if you once referred to them as “tank topped b*m boys”,

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/boris-johnson-ignore-lgbt-voters-conservatives-gay

    I know, it was a bit of a giggle, and no doubt got some sniggers in certain quarters (I think it was a dig at Peter Mandelson at the time) but it’s sometime difficult as a journalist and a man of letters to escape one’s past. Dare I say, this may be another example of past jokes coming back to bite Johnson in the b*m?

    Cameron deliberately courted the gay vote in 2010 and 2015, much to the chagrin of his socially conservative base, many of whom fled to UKIP. Those voters back on board now, I guess, with Johnson as leader.

    :-)}

  14. With what might be an election won or lost on fine margins, no political party can afford to alienate demographic groups, particularly ones who are influential and media-savvy. Here’s an interesting take on g*y voters and how Johnson may be alienating them.

    Not surprising if you once referred to them as “tank topped b*m boys”,

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/boris-johnson-ignore-lgbt-voters-conservatives-gay

    I know, it was a bit of a giggle, and no doubt got some laughs in certain quarters (I think it was a dig at Peter Ma*delson at the time) but it’s sometime difficult as a journalist and a man of letters to escape one’s past. Dare I say, this may be another example of past jokes coming back to bite Johnson in the b*m?

    Cameron deliberately courted the g*y vote in 2010 and 2015, much to the chagrin of his socially conservative base, many of whom fled to UKIP. Those voters back on board now, I guess, with Johnson as leader.

    :-)}

  15. Election maps have done a current polling comparison against this time in 2017:

    Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:

    CON: 42.6% (-2.1)
    LAB: 32.9% (-2.1)
    LDM: 13.3% (+5.1)
    BXP: 3.5% (-0.9)*
    GRN: 2.9% (+0.9)

    *Changes w/ UKIP vote share.

  16. This was posted by Jim Waterson of the Guardian this afternoon:-

    “There is no sign that Boris Johnson will agree to an interview with Andrew Neil before the end of the election campaign, with both the BBC and the Conservatives simply saying that negotiations are ongoing.

    With little over a week until polling day, the prime minister has still not set a date for his one-on-one interview on prime time television, despite every other party leader agreeing to take part.

    On Friday the BBC insisted it would not allow Johnson to appear on its flagship politics programmes until he had agreed a time to sit down with Neil, only to relent following the London Bridge terror attack on the basis that the country should hear from its prime minister during a time of crisis.

    Johnson duly appeared on Sunday’s edition of The Andrew Marr Show, where he insisted he was “perfectly happy to be interviewed by any interviewer called Andrew from the BBC” but there is still no confirmed date for the programme, with only a handful of potential slots available before polls open next Thursday.”

  17. Using Election maps polling averages Electoral Calculus comes up with:

    CON 345
    LAB 234
    LIB 17
    Brexit 0
    Green 1
    SNP 31
    PlaidC 4
    UKIP 0
    Other 0
    N.Ire 18

  18. 3.5 million people registered to vote in the last few weeks. The majority of these were young (under 35). Will the polls have reflected this surge which was considerably larger than in 2017?

  19. @BANTAMS

    But electoral Calculus are currently predicting a CON majority of just 34.

  20. @BFRON

    IMO the reason LAB are reluctant to do an official deal with the LIBDEMS is that their current rhetoric and past performance in the coalition shows them to be more likely to join/support a CON govt than a LAB one.

  21. @ tobyebert

    I wasn’t using Electoral Calculus’s data, I used the Election Maps data just released this afternoon. I put their data in Calculus and it kicked out this seat prediction. SNP looks low but I’ve heard from a LD friend in Scotland that the Tories are showing very well in private polling and may gain 2 to 3 SNP seats. We’re hopeful of gaining at least 1 seat so fingers crossed.

  22. @BANTAMS

    Yes I realise what you were doing, but AW warns us against using polls and data that we would like to believe in rather than taking them as a whole group.

  23. @Norbold

    The latest UKElect is showing Colchester as:

    Con 24037 Lab 15966 LD 12133 Grn 1413

    So it is far closer for second and third than 2017 when the Lib Dems were still suffering from the Coalition. Labour’s refusal ever to do deals with other parties (not just with the Lib Dems) will come back to bite them.

  24. @Tonyebert
    I think there is some truth on what you say in terms of Labour’s perception, although I also think that it is almost inconceivable that the LDem membership would agree to another coalition with the Tories.

    However I also think Labour are still of the conviction that they are a national party that can fight every seat to win.

    However harsh it may seem, there are a swathe of seats (probably 200+ across the UK) that they will not win even in their most landslide years, but many of these are vulnerable to a centrist alternative to the Tories.

    The picture is further muddied currently by the two largest parties being led by politicians who (regardless of the rights or wrongs of these views) are absolute Marmite – loved by their supporters but loathed by a significant proportion of the electorate.

  25. An academic study into the demonisation of Corbyn

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGQU-3decVQ

  26. Bantams

    “I’ve heard from a LD friend in Scotland that the Tories are showing very well in private polling and may gain 2 to 3 SNP seats. We’re hopeful of gaining at least 1 seat so fingers crossed.”

    I hadn’t previously noted that you were Lib Dem.

    I don’t have pals with access to private polling so can’t comment on yours, but usually, if polling by a party is favourable, they can’t wait to get it into the public domain, so the existence of such polling might be a little suspect.

    Obviously, we won’t have any indication of such movement until polls are actually published, but 31 seats for the SNP would also suggest that SLab will retain all their existing seats, while the SNP lose 4 – NE Fife to your party has always looked like a distinct possibility : 3 more losses to the Tories?

    I detect some wishful thinking in your camp.

  27. Douglow.

    By saying antisemitism in the Labour Party is a big lie made up by other parties ,quite neatly demonstrates
    my point. Thanks.

  28. “The Independent understands the footage was filmed recently and features members of the elite 3rd Battalion, Parachute Regiment.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/soldiers-corbyn-shoot-target-practice-army-mod-kabul-a8852156.html

  29. nazir afzal
    ?
    @nazirafzal
    30 years working in criminal justice
    Half that time at Chief Officer level
    Having overseen prosecution of perhaps a million cases
    Worked with dozens of ministers of all parties
    I have never felt need to say this:

    This Prime Minister (& Home Secretary) are both lying to us#Marr

    23K
    10:04 AM – Dec 1, 2019

  30. Turk – I agree with your post. The notion that Lab don’t have a problem with anti-semitism is so absurd that I can’t believe anyone would suggest it

  31. Adam,
    “Granted 2017 GE was only 2.5 years ago but the circumstances are quite different – different Con leader, known Lab leader this time, different policies on both sides, and even just the water under the bridge in the last 2.5 years.”

    Sorry, I dont get that at all.

    Last time a new con elader, this time a new con leader.
    Con called the election both times to get a majority to get brexit done. Had a hard leave program both times. Both con leaders then and now arent coming up to campaigning expectations.

    Labour leader was widely disliked, then and now. Lab policy was to negotiate a good deal for leaving, but not support leaving unless there was a good deal. Now its to negotiate a new deal, and then decide (this time by ballot) if it is good enough to leave. Dont see whats changed.

    May talked about softening austerity. Lab talked about significantly rolling it back. Same now. Con attacked lab for economic incompetence, and its leader personally for all sorts. Libs were always remainish. Ukip vote collapsed and transferred to con.

    What ellse? The percentage of remainers amongst voters has increased, which one might suppose disfavours con. The slow tide of voters aging and being replaced has moved on a little, with the average age of con voters continuing to rise, as they fail to attract the youth vote. Something which slowly difavours con and leave.

    Water under the bridge….3 years of failing to deliver brexit, and 9 years of austerity with critical shortages in care services becoming more apparent. No clear recovery from the 2008 crash despite more than 10 years passing, mostly under con rule. if there need to be changes to policing or immigration, shouldnt they have been done by con by now? Sounds like water under the bridge should favour lab.

    Opposed, yes, Corbyn lost his novelty value, but whoever was lab leader would be under character attack, consistent normal pattern.

    Jonesinbangor,
    “Remember that even a small majority puts Johnson in an infinitely better position than beforehand.”

    May started with a small majority….

  32. Jonesinbangor,
    “The cold water on dreams of a Corbyn rally has to be the fact that we assume that the polling profession have adjusted their models for the unexpected voter behaviour from last time.”

    i asked a few days ago if anyone knew to what extent this did happen. I recall we talked about in the debriefing months, but I dont recall pollsters made big changes.

    The question has to be, were the polls wrong, or did people change their views at the last moment. There was a steady trend of labour doing better, and polls reflected it. The final polls were generally the most accurate, but every poll has a lag and some voters would have decided pencil in hand.

    What will be different is polls this time are normalised to the 2017 result instead of the 2015 result. Which however implies a built in error favouring con, because we know voters have died off and been replaced, disproportionately favouring remain. But if samples are normalised against 2017, then that automatically eliminates any correction for voter turnover.

    Since we know the conservative supporters are aging, it is possible a similar effect took place from 2015-2017 and 2010 to 2015, where the normalising mechanism pollsters favour is introducing a bias because it fails to correct for this long term change in voter makeup. Or to put it another way, there might have been a built in overestimate of con in 2017 but there is another one now in 2019.

  33. I notice that in the above polls the ‘Other’ vote (which includes SNP and Greens) varies from 4 with Deltapoll to 8 with Yougov and Opinium. Obviously it’s very difficult to be accurate with such small numbers, but it does suggest another source of variability in the polls.

  34. Re: SNP on 31 seats with electoral maps figures put into electoral calculus – looking at the breakdown they have all 4 seats being lost to Labour. Not sure how they figure that one out.

    Using the national and scottish predictors (with the scottish predictor using an average of the last 2 scottish polls) gives the SNP 45, taking 6 of labour’s 7, and 4 off the conservatives

  35. @Pete B

    Variation on the SNP vote is very limited in national polls.

    They tend to poll at about 4% overall.

    @Frosty

    I currently get Scotland as follows:

    SNP 45 (+10)
    Con 8 (-5)
    Lab 1 (-6)
    LD 5 (+1)

  36. A few observations on what I’m hearing on W London doorsteps.
    1) Just like in 2017 the Lab DKs who were very prevalent before the election announcement are making their mind up, mainly for Lab. But they are slower than last time.
    2) The tactical voting squeeze is, or appears, much more effective than of yore. Here the obvious tactical vote is Lab, and avoiding immediate Brexit and Johnson as prime minister are the main determinants
    3) I find little enthusiasm for either Johnson or Corbyn. The opposite, in fact.
    4) I am certainly meeting angry Brexiteers – almost all elderly male WWC and often former Labour voters. But they are not widespread.
    5) We do not see Momentum campaigning in this constituency. They probably don’t think it’s marginal enough (one of their main beefs after 2017 was that the party hierarchy was too timid and defensive and they believed we would have won a majority had the party sent people to target gains rather than defends. Possibly right with hindsight). They may be busy in Uxbridge and Chingford – good luck to them if so!
    6) There is a perception that Central Office are less effective with many experienced people hvaing been booted or having booted themselves.

    I am beginning to dream of a hung parliament (and perhaps another n years of the current torture)

  37. TURK

    Your comments are quite frankly lowering this site into the “Cesspit” that AW was referring to. Please try to maintain some balance in your arguments.

    Boris Johnson’s article using offensive metaphors about Muslim women was only last year when he clearly had his eyes set on the keys to number 10. I’m not aware of Jeremy Corbyn making similarly derisory remarks about traditional Jewish attire.

    I work for a charity and if I were to make such remarks in the office I would almost certainly be summarily dismissed.

  38. Danny
    “What will be different is polls this time are normalised to the 2017 result instead of the 2015 result. Which however implies a built in error favouring con, because we know voters have died off and been replaced, disproportionately favouring remain.”

    Interesting point. Counterbalanced perhaps by voters becoming more conservative as they age?

  39. Danny

    A lot has changed since the 2017 election.

    In 2017 Con had a leader who wasn’t known well at the start to the wider electorate but became an increasing liability as the campaign went on and became a subject of ridicule by the end. This time, whilst you personally might not like BJ, a lot of people do and he does have charisma.

    In 2017, Corbyn and his questionable past wasn’t known to the majority of the electorate but he personally had a good campaign. Now, his links with the IRA, Hamas are widely known as are his problems with anti-semitism and hence why polls show his as the most unpopular leader of the opposition ever. His personal ratings could barely be worse, hence why various Labour MPs haven’t been putting his face on campaign literature.

    On Brexit, Con now has a clear message, somewhat similar to last time. Labour’s might be vaguely similar but their position is undermined by firstly having oscillated wildly over the last two years and by being a policy which neither Leave nor Remain voters like.

    It’s a very different election to 2017 in my view.

    Adam

  40. According to the Guardian it looks like Johnson is still not agreeing to the Andrew Neil interview in spite of his answer today. He is so much like Trump. How do they get away with it?

  41. Adam,
    “Turk – I agree with your post. The notion that Lab don’t have a problem with anti-semitism is so absurd that I can’t believe anyone would suggest it”

    The problem labour have with antisemitism is that their members and voters are more likely to worry about it than con members or voters. Thus whichever is really the more racist party, or racist at all, labour will have the problem about it.

  42. CMJ

    “I currently get Scotland as follows : SNP 45 (+10)”

    My prediction of SNP 46 to MOG isn’t looking too bad at the moment.

    One to keep an eye on is Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where the SNP have dumped Hanvey, but where the local Yes group have endorsed him after his apology [1], crowd funded his campaign and are campaigning for him, so I wouldn’t wholly discount his chances of taking the seat.

    [1] Don’t know the guy at all, so whether his admission that he was naïve, careless and stupid is enough for the voters, I don’t know. It’s obviously not for the party!

    https://twitter.com/JNHanvey/status/1200143135344603137/photo/1

  43. DAVWEL

    Shall we compare notes on East Lothian?

    I have been in the SNP pop-up shop a few times. Many of the people I met I remember from the Indyref including a former economist.

    Did I mention the Greens are not standing here? A Green friend, David, turned up to do some leaflet distribution for the SNP.

    I attended the funeral of a Labour voting friend, another David in the west of the constituency. I would not underestimate the resilience of the Labour voters.

    That said I was told that Labour support was collapsing here. I saw little to support the claim except the presence in the shop of two Council employees who were changing after years of Labour support to the SNP.

  44. @Adam
    “Now, his links with the IRA, Hamas are widely known as are his problems with anti-semitism and hence why polls show his as the most unpopular leader of the opposition ever. His personal ratings could barely be worse, hence why various Labour MPs haven’t been putting his face on campaign literature.:

    Couple of points to pick you up on. IRA links/ terrorists etc.. and so was antisemitism, although the latter became more sustained after 2017.
    Furthermore, candidates ommitted Corbyn from their leafletting in 2017 also.
    Corbyn’s approval rating was – 42 going into that election and he had to make up a lot if ground. A poll take just after the election had him on +17.
    His net approval reached historic numbers in 2019, when he kept refusing to switch Labour’s position on Brexit and back a 2nd ref – then we was unpopular with his own supporters and has struggled to recover.
    Anyway, I think issues around Corbyn, although problematic, won’t deter people facing a difficult choice from holding their nose to stop Johnson achieving a majority. Just my view.

  45. Sorry, missed a sentence out. IRA/ Hamas were covered exstensively in the 2017 campaign. In all major interviews and with audience particpation as well. Many papers dedicated page after page hammering this home. I can only assume you were in a coma at the time.

  46. It is laughable that Corbyn’s ‘association’ with Hammas was not widely reported in the 2017 election. Just google ‘Corbyn, Hammas May 2017’ and you will get lots of hits.

    One such example here
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/28/jeremy-corbyn-criticised-labour-election-candidates-wreath-laying/

    There are many, many more but if I include them then my post would be held in moderation

    When you look deeper into the background they are not all they appear to be, but that is by the by, they were widely reported

    I seriously doubt such stories this time will have much traction as they are already factored into the voting

  47. Danny

    You really don’t think Labour has a problem with anti-semitism?!? Why have various Jewish MPs left the party? Why have Labour had to kick people out?!! Why do British Jews feel under threat from a Corbyn led Labour Party?

    Adam

  48. I think this election for many is not about whether Corbyn or Johnson runs the country for the next five years but the party positions on Brexit.

    A Tory majority will pretty much guarantee that we leave the EU on Jan 31st. Anything less will keep the possibility of remaining or a much softer Brexit on the table. I am sure that there are many 2017 Tory voters (myself included) that will happily hold their noses and vote Labour. In safe Tory / Labour seats people can afford the luxury of voting with your heart. But in LAB/CON marginals…..if you really want to stop a Boris Brexit the only way to do so is to vote Labour.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas!

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