We have the usual glut of polls in the Sunday papers, with new figures from YouGov, ComRes, Opinium, BMG and Deltapoll. Topline figures are below:

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), BREX 3%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, and changes are from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 43%(nc), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(-2). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the start of the week (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 46%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes are from last week (tabs)
SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph – CON 43%(+2), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, changes are from their mid-week poll (tabs)
BMG/Independent – CON 39%(-2), LAB 33%(+5), LDEM 13%(-5), BREX 4%(-1). FIeldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday, changes are from last week.

Polls in the last week had been consistent in showing a small decrease in Conservative support and a small increase in Labour support, marginally reducing the Tory lead. While these polls aren’t quite so uniform (Deltapoll show the lead steady, ComRes shows movement in the other direction… though if you consider ComRes carry out two polls a week, their lead compared to a week ago is actually unchanged), most still show movement in Labour’s favour.

There remains a significant difference in the overall size of the lead, varying from just six points in the BMG poll to fifteen from Opinium. It is hard to put a specific figure on what sort of lead the Conservatives need to secure an overall majority – it obviously depends on exactly where they gain or lose votes – but as a rough rule of thumb it is probably somewhere around six or seven points. That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.


537 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. If Boris is happy to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, as he now says, he should not have prevaricated. That has been immensely and unnecessarily damaging.

  2. Repeat:

    Just to remind people about polling for 2017. There’s a few here – me included – who have been trying to work out where in the last polling “cycle” we currently are compared to last time.
    Forget that – let’s compare the latest polls to the last published polls before the 2017 election:
    Con 2017 Labb 2017 LD 2017 Con now Lab now LD now
    BMG
    46,33,8/39,33,13
    Comres
    44,34,9/43,33,13
    Panelbase
    44,36,7/42,34,13
    YouGov
    42,35,10/43,34,13
    On this evidence Lab has already made up the ground, don’t you think?

  3. Is Labour catching in the marginals or just piling up elsewhere?

  4. AW

    “That means at the moment the vast majority of polls are still indicating a Tory majority, but there is no longer that much room for further tightening.”

    That is interesting.

    But I think it is often a feature of polls that they revert back to the incumbent government in the last few days – is that still the case?

  5. Opinium
    43,36,8/46,31,13

    Can’t find Savanta or Deltapoll from 2017

  6. Good to hear that Mr Johnson said he is happy to be interviewed by Mr Neil in the interview with Mr Marr. It will be important for the BBC to follow up on that as Mr Johnson says a lot of things that do not turn out to be as he said.

  7. NickP

    It is iteresting how similar they are but the Lib Dems seem to have more votes now than last time and the brexit less. So that means the votes are distributed differently and the brexit people are falling in line with Mr Johnson. That makes the northern seats hard to keep for Labour.

  8. I liked how Mr Gardiner dealt with Mr Neil, by bringing in his own notes to the interview and being on top of the detail. It worked quite well. Also Ms Sturgeon was very good also because she could counter Mr Neil with detailed knowledge of various reports. She knows her stuff and was able to tell Mr Neil that he got some things wrong in his question. Full marks there!

    If you are prepared to do your homework and if you pay attention to detail then you can respond.

    Mr Johnson being interviewed by Mr Neil is like a student coming in to class who has handed in a hastily written essay after a night out drinking in the town. The very way he responds to questions, by deflecting and making a joke, is remarkably juvenile.

  9. profhoward

    not convinced – some of that LD vote might switch still but more importantly the missing 5% of votes in 2017 that showed up to vote Lab – I assume they will be around again this time.

  10. Nick P:

    Don’t you think that they’ve adjusted methods to capture that missing 5%? They say they’ve learnt from that I think.

  11. well that consistent 13 for the LDs in 2017 polling turned into an actual 7,

    And the persisent c35 for Lab became 40.

    So we could just presume 5% of current LD polling will vote Lab – hopefully tactically rather than in every constituency.

  12. Would be interested to hear from the informed, noble and honourable contributors to this site as to how electoral calculus works. This is in the light that despite most polls showing Labour closing the gap yesterday, today the overall majority of the Conservatives has increased from 22-34

  13. sorry my last poll was wrong – the persistent 13& is Lib Dems current polling. They may not actually switch to Lab at all.

  14. Does anyone have any detail aboutnthe turnout weightings across the different models and how this contrasts with 2017?

  15. “I liked how Mr Gardiner dealt with Mr Neil, by bringing in his own notes to the interview and being on top of the detail. It worked quite well”

    Barry Gardiner was excellent in that interview for precisely the reasons you say.

  16. The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 42 – Con 345 Lab 215 SNP 46 LD 20

    Forecast here:
    UK-Elect Forecast December 1st 2019

    Details as CSV file here:

    UK-Elect Forecast Details December 1st 2019

    This reflects the small but noticeable swing from the Tories to Labour in most recent opinion polls.

  17. @ Thomas

    “Is Labour catching in the marginals or just piling up elsewhere?”

    That old question. Dunno. Let’s try a variation. Are the Conservatives piling up votes in their safe seats now?

  18. Neilj, if you scroll down their site there’s a new article that tells you….

  19. @BEDKNOBS AND BOOMSTICKS
    Neilj, if you scroll down their site there’s a new article that tells you….

    Cheers, will have a read

  20. I’ve updated my own model to the latest You Gov.

    Con 352 (+34)
    Lab 208 (-54)
    SNP 45 (+10)
    LD 22 (+10)
    PC 3 (-1)

    Vote Share

    Con 40%
    Lab 31%
    LD 14%

  21. @profhoward and brexit party votes. The brexit party are not standing in any of the conservative held seats but are standing in most of the rest. Looking at the latest yougov the brexit party votes come from 3% of CON 2017 and 2% of LAB 2017. If the brexit party weren’t standing then we don’t know for sure how they would vote (its possible a lot may go to WNV) but, on the basis of yougov, it would seem likely that a lot would go to the conservatives so the brexit party standing is likely helping labour at the moment in their marginals.

  22. It seems, from the Marr interview, that Johnson will in fact now sit down to be interviewed by Neil. What kind of strategy is this? This has gained quite a lot of attention now and the viewing figures will be much higher!

  23. I struggle to understand the obsession which some people have in trying to compare this GE to the 2017 GE, and specifically in applying behaviours last time to what might happen between now and the 12th.

    Granted 2017 GE was only 2.5 years ago but the circumstances are quite different – different Con leader, known Lab leader this time, different policies on both sides, and even just the water under the bridge in the last 2.5 years.

    There’s always the danger in trying to learn the wrong lessons – looking back at the previous event and assuming that that time was the benchmark and all future similar events should happen the same way. I think that’s happening now, or alternatively people are trying to find ‘evidence’ to support what they want to happen, rather than considering facts and working out what is more/less likely to actually happen

  24. @Frosty

    I must say that I take the opposite view.

    The Brexit Party is keeping people’s mind focused on Brexit and Labour duplicity on the issue.

    Hence the party drafting in Lavery to try and big up the pretence.

    Remember that even a small majority puts Johnson in an infinitely better position than beforehand.

    Labour need to be taking a number of marginals from the Tories. I think it’s quite clear they are in retreat and struggling to keep what they already have. If the Lib Dems go flat on polling day, it’s a big win for Boris Johnson.

  25. @Adam

    I would politely suggest that LOC voters are desperate for 2017 to repeat (ie the sharp closing of the polls) just as ROC voters are for it not to repeat.

    Can 2017 happen again?

    It might, it might not. If you know the answer with certainty, go visit a bookie with a wad of cash!

  26. @NickP
    ‘I thought they were 42.4% and 40.0%?’

    Those were the UK vote shares. With the exception of Survation the pollsters give us GB data – and for 2015 that ended up Con 43.5% Lab 41%.

  27. 2017 – not 2015!

  28. @John33

    Polling companies have generally returned to using self-declared turnout likelihood (though in different ways), rather than trying to “correct” for the gap between self-declared and actual, after the companies that did that the most ended up way off in 2017.

    Since there is again a 10 point gap between companies in the estimate of the Con lead, however, someone is going to be getting it wrong this time too.

  29. @Norbold (from last thread)

    In fact, Bob Russell was a former Labour Party member and took a lot of support with him who must have reverted home in 2017.

    Bob Russell left Labour when the SDP was founded in 1981. So that’s some 38 years ago. You could equally well have made the same comment about Vince Cable, which merely illustrates that many of the old SDP came from the Labour Party. There won’t be many voters in Colchester now who were voting for Bob as a Labour councillor in the 1970s.

  30. I would think that some of the contributors will have dropped off this site because they don’t have a clue to how to reset there dns cache.
    I include myself I have no idea how to reset my IPad ,phone is okay didn’t need resetting.

  31. “There won’t be many voters in Colchester now who were voting for Bob as a Labour councillor in the 1970s.”

    Why not?

  32. Neither Marr nor Johnson did well in that interview.

    Sooner or later Johnson will be judged unfit for office …. or anything. When?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-said-britain-poorest-chavs-losers-criminals-addicts-burglars-2019-11?r=US&IR=T

  33. There isn’t much in those comments I’d disagree with to be honest.

    They essentially zero in on a fundamental fault-line between left and right.

    Working class voters won’t necessarily be put off Johnson by such opinions. They more than anyone know there is truth in what he says.

  34. John 33 “It seems, from the Marr interview, that Johnson will in fact now sit down to be interviewed by Neil. What kind of strategy is this? This has gained quite a lot of attention now and the viewing figures will be much higher!”

    I think he said I’m happy to be interviewed by any Andrew, I suspect this will now be spun- “I was interviewed by Marr, I don’t see the need to be also interviewed by Neil”. I’d be very surprise if Johnson will agree to a Neil interview OR if BBC press for one.

  35. “Working class voters won’t necessarily be put off Johnson by such opinions. They more than anyone know there is truth in what he says.”

    Like coppers “know”, I suppose. Probably why they fit them up but let the posh boys off with a caution.

  36. Sam: Sooner or later Johnson will be judged unfit for office …. or anything. When?

    Well, judging by his quotes you linked to, Johnson thinks a good many of his countrymen are a bit slow on the uptake. So his answer to your question would probably be, “too late to stop me winning.”

    But if, in fact, this does become a factor before Thursday week, then the interesting question is: where will current Con VI that finally concludes he’s unfit, go?

    I guess it could go four ways:

    * Nowhere, because they think a mendacious, lazy, incompetent Tory who’s unfit to govern is better than a Corbyn, or:

    * To LDs because they are an unthreatening alternative. Especially for remain-inclined cons. Or:

    * To WNV. Or:

    * To Labour. Seems unlikely, but since the indications are that many Lab voters, especially in Mid/North heartlands, have switched to Con, then in theory at least they could switch back (if not fixated on brexit).

  37. Sam

    The problem people have in judging Johnson’s remarks of yesteryear is how does a few off the cuff but fairly insulting remarks compare the the oppositions leaders long history of association with known terrorist’s ,coupled with a strong anti NATO sentiment ,whilst presiding over a party who seem to have within there ranks a small but vocal minority of rather nasty racists.

    Your quite right people on the 12 will make a judgement some of which will be based on leadership it will be interesting on what they consider more important.

  38. Some have mentioned Johnson’s 16 tweet thread on the legal aspects of the London Bridge incident.

    The terrible Khan case has highlighted a complicated area of law. There have been many inaccuracies reported about this case over the last 24 hours. Here are the details (1/16)

    That seemed rather un-Johnsonian behaviour, so it’s not surprising that he (or presumably his advisers, since Johnson says he doesn’t “do” Twitter) just nicked it from the Secret Barrister – who is highly displeased with the plagiarism.

    The Prime Minister has basically copied and pasted my blogpost into a thread and passed it off as his own explanation.

    A blogpost which I had to write to rebut the l!es he spent yesterday spouting.

    This is weapons grade sh!thousery.

  39. Hello everyone

    I’v been away for six weeks, but back in time for the weirdest election I’ve known…. Glad to see the debates continuing here.

    A little local gossip: Our present MP, Sarah Wollaston, doesn’t seem to be doing very well in her bid to be re-elected as a Lib Dem. No polls of course, but odds against her are 2/1 (New Tory boy is 2/5 favourite) and labour have manged to convince a lot of my friends that they are the real alternative to Con in this constituency – absolute nonsense, but it’s amazing what people will believe. Previously I’d expected her to win comfortably because she is honest, intelligent and formidable, and has a lot of local support. Perhaps that counts against her!
    My personal feeling, coming back, is that Labour are in for a hammering this time, the lib dems’ campaign is simply awful (we’ve had endless pointless and unconvincing leaflets with big pictures of Jo Swinson, but nothing to inspire us), and “mendacious, lazy, incompetent” Johnson will win by default. Really, really hope I’m wrong.

  40. TURK

    ‘a party who seem to have within there ranks a small but vocal minority of rather nasty racists.’

    No real evidence for this, of course, just a repetition of a Goebbels-style ‘big lie’. Of all the political parties in this country Labour is the least anti-semitic, led by a man with a lifetime’s anti-racist activity.

    Considering you’re clearly a Tory, people in glass houses etc. The Tory Party is overwhelmingly racist and not the least bothered about addressing it. Certainly not while they’re led by one.

    They have the nerve to smear Labour with anti-semitism then put up a statue to a real Hitler-loving anti-semite. Unbelievable..

  41. @PatrickBrian

  42. Labour had more than twice the Lib Dem vote in Totnes last time.

    Of course Wolastin could take half the Tory vote – but probably not. Many, many Tories vote True Blue full stop. Even more so than tribal Labour.

  43. @PatrickBrian

    I wonder if the issue with the Lib Dem campaign is putting Jo Swinson front and centre.

    They seem to have run a presidential-style approach with a candidate, being polite, without the charisma that such a candidate would need to have.

    Also, making it an almost entirely stop Brexit campaign, when it’s clear the campaign has been broader, looks to be a major error.

  44. @Catmanjeff

    I agree with your analysis -Swinson + Remain through an implausible outright victory was a really poorly thought out strategy, made to look catastrophic by Swinson’s poor performance in debates – she seems strangely ill -prepared especially in the debates, with no substance in terms of evidence to back her points.

  45. It was a dreadful interview and Andrew Marr looked unhappy to be doing it.

  46. One of the problems with Corbyn is that her demonisation of Corbyn (and Johnson) meant that on the ground there was no way any tactical deals could be done.

    Say Lab had agreed to pull out of Totens if KD had pulled out of Canterbury – that would have been a tacit admission that Brexit is a real threat to the Country but Corbyn was not.

    Her ridiculous hyperbole (like Umunna’s) left her with nowhere to go to actually support the Remain cause she purports to represent.

  47. Sorry problem with Corbyn should have been problem with Swinson

  48. Checking the MRP with the last election the Seats that are going Lab To Con in Northern England show Lib Dem VI about 7-8% compared to 2-3% at the last election. So movement of about 4%. This is in line with polls showing Lib Dem 5% higher than 2017. The movement is 6% in Don Valley so is this disattisfaction with current MP?
    Maybe the squeeze on LD from You Gov is movement in some of these constituencies. Maybe there is a bit of BXP-LAB, BXP-CON and Con-LD mixed in?

  49. Anyone been having problems logging on, I’ve had to go around the houses?

  50. I was surprised to see poll leads in the teens last night.

    I may be completely wrong but there is little evidence of a dramatic collapse in lead as in 2017. If I recall, all pollsters were showing a drop from the previous week in the equivalent polls.

    I have a hunch that London Bridge and the NATO summit will be in people’s minds as we go into the final week. Call me cynical but we must also be due an intercept of a Russian Bomber off the North of Scotland next Monday or Tuesday.

    My guess is that we will end up close to the next MRP on the 12th.

    I still go with my dream of a few months ago, namely 342/212/28

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