The mid-week polls so far are below:

SavantaComRes (25th-26th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(nc)
YouGov/Sky/Times (25th-26th) – CON 43%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 13%(-3), BREX 4%(+1)
ICM/Reuters (22th-25th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1)
Kantar (21st-25th) – CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 3%(+1)
Survation/GMB (20th-23rd) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(+2), BREX 5%(nc)

Taken individually, almost all the changes in these polls are within the margin of error (Kantar is the only exception). However, looking at them as a group there is a clear trend, with every poll showing a slight drop in Tory support and a slight increase for Labour. Taken together it’s clear there’s been a slight narrowing of the race though, of course, that still leaves a Conservative lead between 7 and 11 points. As usual, it is almost impossible to ascribe specific causes to this.

As well as the standard polls this week, YouGov published their MRP model. MRP is a method of using a large national sample to project shares at smaller geographical areas – in this case Parliamentary constituencies. By modelling how different demographics vote in seats with different characteristics, and then applying that model to each constituency, the MRP model produces vote shares for each individual constituency and, via that, projects seat totals for each party. Famously the YouGov MRP model projected a hung Parliament in 2017 when most people expected a Conservative majority.

The model this time is less surprising – it projected national vote shares of CON 43%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%, BREX 3% (so very much in line with YouGov’s traditional polling), and seat numbers of Conservative 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Liberal Democrat 13. This represents a Conservative majority of 68, much what we would expect to find on those shares of the vote (though the detailed projection is interesting, with the Conservative gains coming largely in the North and the urban West Midlands, with notable gains in West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Stoke). Full details of the MRP model are here.

Finally this week, we’ve seen what is only the second Scottish poll of the campaign, this time from Ipsos MORI. Topline figures with changes from the 2017 election are CON 26%(-3), LAB 16%(-11), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 44%(+7). Tabs for that are here.


724 Responses to “Midweek polling update”

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  1. BT says – I was actually responding to another comment and simply took his point a bit further.

    Re- Norwich North . Chloe Smith has to be favoured to hold the seat for the Tories even on the basis of the apparent narrowing of the national polls. In 2017 Labour selected – at the last minute – a NHS doctor as its candidate. At the outset of that campaign – on the basis of the massive Tory poll leads – he was expected to lose by 12,000 – 15,000 votes. In the end, he did very well and reduced the 2015 Tory majority of 4,500 to a tight 507. Despite his strong performance, that candidate was not even considered for selection – because he was of the wrong gender. I am not prepared to vote for a Gender -vetted candidate – hence my Green vote. Last night an attempt was made to emotionally blackmail me in a local pub, but that will not succeed – and I certainly require little psephological advice from others!

  2. The case fro Brexit is really getting quite bizarre. Leading pro Brexit thinktank the IEA says of the new state aid rules:

    “Current state aid rules already stifle our economy, by allowing government interventions – in special circumstances – to give support to struggling industry. Extending these rules, by allowing government to use taxpayers’ money to prop up industries that have no future, would be to move swiftly in the wrong direction, crippling the emergence of new and innovative businesses that our economy relies on.”

    And of the new buy British policy –

    “A ‘Buy British’ policy is pure protectionism, and it comes with heavy costs.

    The Conservatives are showing little understanding of the benefits of free trade, let alone the benefits of Brexit.”

    The intellectual incoherence of the Tory offer is woeful, although there is of course, a simple explanation that will resolve these competing forces: these promises are just more l!es.

  3. Looking forward to the week ahead I can see two things having major influence on the final full week of campaigning.

    1. Panorama interview about with alleged victim of andrew on Monday. Will probably dominate news until Wednesday.

    2. Trump sticking his ear in. CON seem to be really worried about this and BJ isn’t going to meet him.

  4. New poll from Panelbase

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-1)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    via @PanelbaseMD, 27 – 28 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 22 Nov

    Seems to confirm the two point move to Labour and timed after Corbyn’s bad day so some comfort for Labour posters.

  5. Lets not forget that the Panel Base poll is just ONE poll. We need to await other weekend polls before deciding whether the Tories will get a bounce from the Manifesto they launched on Sunday.

    According to Prof Curtice it takes a few days for the “pub chat” and “workplace chat” about a manifesto’s ideas to seep into peoples consciences and VIs.

  6. @Trevs – “– ??!??! My job?? Errr… my name’s not Boris mate. Jog on ;)”

    I did say it was a joke, but I would be genuinely interested in your take on these announcements. Do you think they are serious, and do you think there would be conflicts with other stated aims of Brexit?

    I think I can guess your response, as to be fair, you aren’t an advocate of the pure free trade mantra, but it’s the conflicts with ther promised aspects of Brexit where I think there could be problems.

  7. @PROFHOWARD

    I can’t recall anything from the manifesto which is likely to gain any attention.

  8. Mr Sunak, who is known to me, will perform well.

  9. @PROFHOWARD

    I think AW posted about the differences between the weekday and weekend polls. Weekday seem to have lower leads. Weekend have much larger.

    May be therefore difficult to detect perhaps only a 1 point drop in lead may be significant perhaps??

  10. However, if anyone has still not read Gerard Lyon’s[1] book:

    “Clean Brexit: Why Leaving the EU Still Makes Sense – Building a Post-Brexit Economy for All”

    Then kindle version is the price of a decent pint (in a London pub)

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Clean-Brexit-Leaving-Building-Post-Brexit-ebook/dp/B075422X53

    I’m not agreeing with everything he says but close enough to the Collective’s views.

    PS The original (from before the EURef) was better IMO as this “update” was more about hoping Mayb0t wasn’t as useless as she turned out to be.

    [1] Yes, he is BFF with Boris ;)

  11. Me

    “According to Prof Curtice it takes a few days for the “pub chat” and “workplace chat” about a manifesto’s ideas to seep into people’s consciences and VIs.”

    John 33

    “I can’t recall anything from the manifesto which is likely to gain any attention.”

    I think there was 50,000 extra nurses, a new fund for tackling potholes, and an increase in the NI contribution threshold.

  12. The nurses thing has worked against them. The NI contribution has too as it is only £82 a year. There just isn’t enough there in my view to inspire people. I was surprised by the manifesto.

  13. “I think AW posted about the differences between the weekday and weekend polls. Weekday seem to have lower leads. Weekend have much larger.”

    Yes, we might expect to see a widening of the Tory gap, come the weekend, if other effects are absent. So we can’t attribute it to the ideas in the Conservative Manifesto that Mr Johnson launched on Sunday.

  14. It was certainly a safe manifesto which I believe was the point from CON. Maintain their poll lead without shaking the boat.

  15. John33

    I noticed that on BBC QT there was a person asking about the bizarre maths behind the 50,000 figure, so it has caught the public discussion but in a bad way.

    However – perhaps Dominic Cummings has calculated that the bizarre maths will get everyone talking about the extra nurses, so that when they go and vote they remember the extra nurses.

  16. @Profhoward

    Of course any drop to the weekday 7 point lead on Saturday night will cause major alarm bells to start ringing at CCHQ.

    What is particularly interesting is yet again the MRP and traditional polling don’t agree. In 2019 however it seems they are predicting the opposite of 2017.

  17. Or may do depending on whether this closing of gap continues…..

  18. Fat Ron 1.35pm

    Yes, I agree.

  19. On 50,000 nurses yes cut through and soundbites are how the vast majority of the population receive their news.

  20. Zach

    Yes that is true about any drop in the lead.

    I thought people said that the MRP and traditional polling WERE agreeing this time, but hadn’t last time.

    As it happens I think there is a lot of scope for “modelling error” with MRP especially in seats with tactical voting, since this is quite hard thing to model. People are giving it more credibility than it deserves, just because it did well last time.

    Its possible that MRP just got lucky last time, a bit like a stock picker gets a good reputation because he happened by chance to pick a good set of shares.

  21. Regarding the 2017 Yougov MRP, I recall my constituency (Enfield Southgate) was showing “Lean Labour” throughout the campaign and Labour surprisingly gained the seat on a 9% swing. They are predicted to retain the seat this time around. Neighbouring Chipping Barnet (Theresa Villers seat) which won by a narrow majority is showing as “Tossup”.

    Both of these constituencies (and many others in the SE) are very Remainy so showing essentially no swing to the Conservatives.

    The demographics of the predicted CON gains in the north are very different which could significantly affect turnout weightings and the reliability. Furthermore, in many of these seats there is much deep seated hatred for the Tories dating back to the 1980s, which shouldn’t be underestimated. It is one thing saying you will vote in a particular way but when push comes in the to shove you may return to back to your comfort zone or not vote at all. Incumbency advantage may also come into play.

  22. @PROFHOWARD

    I think Old Nat got this right yesterday. What strategists aim to achieve and what actually happens are often two very different things. The game plan is clear, but I am starting to doubt whether it is going to work for them.

  23. @ProfHoward

    The closing of the gap (if continued) the polling would indicate a hung parliament as opposed to a healthy CON majority with MRP.

    That of course is using UNS which is not useful. The age of the swingometer is dead.

  24. Point of order, this is the third poll since the launch of the Conservative Manifesto, the other two are

    CON: 41% (-1)
    LAB: 34% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-2)
    BREX: 5% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 25 – 26 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 32% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (-3)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (-2)

    via
    @YouGov
    , 25 – 26 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 22 Nov

    Okay the first two were conducted soon after the manifesto launch, but they would have been done in the full glare of the publicity surrounding it.

  25. Zach – ok. Thanks for explaining. Puzzling, that but I suppose you’re right about UNS.

  26. NeilJ

    Ok, so it looks like the ideas in the Conservative Manifesto have not brought an immediate bounce. Lets see what the weekend polls say (adjusting for the effect Zach mentions about weekend polls tending to have a higher lead for Tories).

  27. Then there is this issue that mrp did ‘well’ last time. The whole point of MRP is surely to accurately predict seat numbers. Whilst it did give a hung parliament the major failing was that it predicted a hung parliament which had TM out of power. Traditional polling makes no assumptions as to seat numbers it therefore it is correct as long as the proportion of votes are correct. It is for ididots like use to over interpret

  28. I think MRP and polling are broadly in agreement.

    What the MRP data told us, was that though the headline was a large Con majority, this was based upon a significant number of seats that are very tight. Small swings, have a big impact on the numbers of seats won by respective parties.

    This election is on a knife edge. It could return a solid Con Majority (70+), or it could actually be quite close as to who is the largest party.

    The key variables are (IMO):
    – Will opinion continue to move to Labour?
    – Role of tactical voting
    – The Trump impact (I have no way of predicting what the impact could be!)
    – How many traditional Labour leave voters can hold their nose and vote Conservative?

    If it does return a hung parliament, it is difficult to see how Johnson can carry on, but equally it is unclear if Swinson would support Corbyn. The price of power for each party could depend on toppling their leader . . . .

  29. @Zach

    The problem with a manifesto that doesn’t shake the boat is that Brexiteers won the election precisely because people wanted the boat shaken. What are benefits for poor northern towns from the Conservative manifesto? Extra nurses are not going to revive these towns or stir the hearts of men who’ve lost their communities to ruin. The tory manifesto seems to say Brexit is enough, but I doubt this will ring true to many.

  30. At least we are back on polling and away from that lair Johnson and Communist Corbyn……just adding some brevity :)

  31. Purely anecdotal, and I’m dahn south after all, but conversation in the office, trains and even on the street is about politics all of a sudden (doesn’t usually get a mention) and it is pretty pro red and dare I say surprisingly enthused – even if it is only enthusiasm to give Johnson the push.

  32. MIKE N: ‘The polls published at the weekend will be important. I am hopeful that another hung parliament will occur.’

    Why on earth would anybody wish for that outcome?

    We’ve had what is effectively a hung parliament for quite a while now, and all it results in is endless squabbling between the various factions, with no real decisions being taken and nothing getting done. If that continues, the EU may well lose patience, and kick us out without a deal anyway.

    There is a straight binary choice in this election, and despite the many flaws with both main parties and their leaders, voters have to go one way or the other.

    So it’s either give the Tories an OM, so that they can ‘get Brexit done’ and move the country forward, or put Labour in charge and we’ll see if they can bring about the ‘real change’ they are promising.

    Any other outcome is a disaster, and would probably mean another GE in March, which the general public need like a hole in the head.

  33. “What is particularly interesting is yet again the MRP and traditional polling don’t agree. ”

    I don’t think that’s really true.

    In 2017, YouGov’s MRP was very much in line with their conventional polling. This averaged a 5 point Tory lead in the last 3 polls before election day compared to the 4 point lead in their MRP . It just happened that YouGov’s polls in 2017 generally showed Labour doing better than almost everyone else.

    This year, YouGov are showing a slightly higher Tory lead than most other pollsters, and are currently at the top end of the range of 7-11 point Tory leads. So I’d say that it’s YouGov whose polls are in a different place to 2017 rather than anything to do with MRP.

  34. @planky

    There is certainly something to be said for brexit fatigue being the same as get brexit done fatigue. It would seem that is the CON answer to everything and it seems from audience responses that this is wearing thin.

  35. @DAVID CARROD

    “MIKE N: ‘The polls published at the weekend will be important. I am hopeful that another hung parliament will occur.’

    Why on earth would anybody wish for that outcome?”

    Since the probability of a Labour OM is vanishingly small, I would imagine that many remainers (or even soft brexiteers) may want that outcome as it makes a 2nd ref more likely. Furthermore, it may appeal to remainers that are not keen on on a Labour OM and a hard-left program being implemented.

  36. The (un)popularity of Corbyn has been baked-in to Lab VI for a long time. And to some extent, ditto for Johnson and Tory VI.

    But the next week is a crucial period. If the Johnson ‘popularity’ declines further (e.g. ‘cowardice’, deceit) I think the gap in VI between the two parties will narrow. Events, events.

    The Con manifesto was, well, vacuous. But it’s emptiness (and potential deceit re nurses) might lead some to think that another Tory govt will change nothing.

    Then there is the trade deal dossier, and the NHS ‘revelations’ (amongst other things).

    Earlier this week, Dom Cummings send a bat signal. Why?
    Johnson senior is evidently giving his son support. Why?
    Tory VI seems to have plateaued.
    What response are party activists getting on the doorsteps?

    I suggest there is deep concern at CCHQ about the way the campaign is going and BJ’s performance.

    It may all mean nothing, of course.

    Event, events…

  37. David Carrod
    I would very much like a Lab OM, or biggest number of MPs. But I’m also realistic (most of the time).

  38. With the Conservatives losing control of the narrative will Cummings be looking for a cat on it’s ninth life-)

  39. Question: going back, has there always beem a sharp divide on age demographic with regard to VI? Or is it a fairly new phenomenon?

  40. John33 it might have been there but has really changed in size.

  41. mike n

    It might be in my delusional head, bet there does seem to have been a change in mood where I am – positively keen to get to the polls and vote Lab

  42. “If that continues, the EU may well lose patience, and kick us out without a deal anyway.”
    @David Carrod November 29th, 2019 at 2:19 pm

    That will never happen. The EU works by agreement. The Commission wouldn’t do it. It could only come from the European Council. And Germany, which doesn’t want us to leave, would put pressure on any member state to prevent it.

    They see it as an internal matter, plus we have 3 million of their citizens. That’s yet another reason for them not wanting us to leave.

  43. Shooting incident on London Bridge ongoing!

  44. So I’ll ask again. If we have a hung parliament then can a Remainer explain how that leads to Remain (via a 2nd ref)

    Please state the rough seat numbers per party and how each party in the “Remain Alliance” will agree to the terms of the others (bonus kudos if you go into the LAB internal factions)

    Please also state the process and lead time issues (eg who is writing a letter to Michel (Tusk replacement), FTPA issues, etc)

    I can tell you who does want a hung parliament – Farage!

  45. @MIKE N

    Whilst I don’t disagree with your statement on LD dislike of Corbyn I do believe this will weaken if they see that LAB is the only way of stopping Brexit.

  46. On the previous thread I reported not being to find the Coatbridge prediction “Toss-up Lab” on the hexagon map.

    I have looked again today, thinking that the MRP might have been updated on the precedent of 2017 daily changes.

    There has been no update, but I see now that the hexagon map has an error in that Coatbridge is shown blue (Con lean) despite the predicted Con vote being just 16%.

    I wonder if other people have found graphical errors in the hexagon maps in their regions. I am NOT doubting the MRP.

  47. @Bantams

    It sounds gang related, going by the early reporting.

  48. @TREVOR WARNE 2.41

    The conservatives have no natural allies left so anything short of about 320 seats makes it virtually impossible for them to get their WA through. If they are in the 310-320 range they might be able to get support subject to a confirmatory Ref. Fewer than that then they may struggle to to form a government at all and we’re in to a labour-led “rainbow coalition” territory – in which case a 2nd Ref highly likely.

    Labour have campaigned on a 2nd ref ticket (albeit on their deal).

  49. The Met Police reporting a number of people injured.

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