The mid-week polls so far are below:

SavantaComRes (25th-26th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(nc)
YouGov/Sky/Times (25th-26th) – CON 43%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 13%(-3), BREX 4%(+1)
ICM/Reuters (22th-25th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1)
Kantar (21st-25th) – CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 3%(+1)
Survation/GMB (20th-23rd) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(+2), BREX 5%(nc)

Taken individually, almost all the changes in these polls are within the margin of error (Kantar is the only exception). However, looking at them as a group there is a clear trend, with every poll showing a slight drop in Tory support and a slight increase for Labour. Taken together it’s clear there’s been a slight narrowing of the race though, of course, that still leaves a Conservative lead between 7 and 11 points. As usual, it is almost impossible to ascribe specific causes to this.

As well as the standard polls this week, YouGov published their MRP model. MRP is a method of using a large national sample to project shares at smaller geographical areas – in this case Parliamentary constituencies. By modelling how different demographics vote in seats with different characteristics, and then applying that model to each constituency, the MRP model produces vote shares for each individual constituency and, via that, projects seat totals for each party. Famously the YouGov MRP model projected a hung Parliament in 2017 when most people expected a Conservative majority.

The model this time is less surprising – it projected national vote shares of CON 43%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%, BREX 3% (so very much in line with YouGov’s traditional polling), and seat numbers of Conservative 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Liberal Democrat 13. This represents a Conservative majority of 68, much what we would expect to find on those shares of the vote (though the detailed projection is interesting, with the Conservative gains coming largely in the North and the urban West Midlands, with notable gains in West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Stoke). Full details of the MRP model are here.

Finally this week, we’ve seen what is only the second Scottish poll of the campaign, this time from Ipsos MORI. Topline figures with changes from the 2017 election are CON 26%(-3), LAB 16%(-11), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 44%(+7). Tabs for that are here.


724 Responses to “Midweek polling update”

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  1. Valerie 12.22pm

    I’m sure there’s some leftwing echo chambers where they appreciate your highly partisan opinions which make no attempt to add anything to the psephological discussion.

    This site isn’t employed to run therapy sessions for Valerie AFAIK.

  2. @John33
    ‘ As a ‘ man of god’, I find it laughable that you think you have the right to lecture people on morality and decency, when you support a party that has waged war on the worst off in our society. The type who votes Tory on the Thursday, then volunteers in the soup kitchen on the Friday. I loathe such hypocrisy.’

    I could not agree more. Personally I have always had a problem with churchgoers voting Tory – it seems inherently unchristian to support policies which bring misery and suffering to the less fortunate in our society – and elsewhere. That was particularly true of the Thatcherite ‘Me Me Me!’ approach to the world , and I found it difficult not to sympathise with those who saw her as an AntiChrist figure. Johnson is clearly a morally degenerate character – completely devoid of any sense of inherent decency.

  3. Don’t play your best striker on a plastic pitch!

    I think the Tory strategy is the most common one for the Party in power and in the lead; you have more to lose in a debate than gain so why take the risk.

    There is a risk in being seen to be running scared, but that has to be measured against letting the other side get in too many hits!

    Johnson isn’t good at detail and gets flustered under pressure and waffles so a debate on the details of a specific and contentious issue like climate change carries particular risks.

    Likewise it’s clear from the questions being asked on Johnson at press conferences and the style of the Sturgeon and Corbyn interviews what Andrew Neil would go on; honesty and integrity, public and private!

    How many affairs and how many kids, laying down in front of bulldozers and dying in ditches, Boris Island Airport and a Bridge to France, Pillar boxes to comparing cars to women!

    Johnson has to many vulnerabilities and to many years as a journalist and columnist have left to many hostages to fortune!

    Protect your candidate and your lead!

    Peter.

  4. My above post was in relation to Bantams post at 12.36pm

  5. @miserable old,

    You are missing the point. This is a site to discuss polling, not to call the PM names. If you don’t understand that you shouldn’t be here. This site used to be great but it’s fast becoming like any social media hyper partisan ten a penny platform.

  6. In an attempt at injecting a little humour…

    Apparently a Professor of Religion at a US evangelical university has analysed Pres Trump’s behaviour and character against the ‘nine banners’ of the Antichrist and concluded that so far he has ticked eight out of nine boxes.

    We should all be very afraid…

  7. I am surprised at the latest poll, I had thought with the last few days bad press re the Andrew Neil interview and the Chief Rabbi allegations it would have dented Labour in the polls. As it is, this is the sixth poll on the trot where Labour has closed the gap
    It is a very slow movement but with 13 days left all to play for

  8. If you reduce the CON lead by 1% for a BXP correction and put it onto LAB. Really are now bang on hung parliament territory.

  9. Was that Chicken Boris or his dad who just did that long Q&A?

    Anyway.. moving on. Tonight’s race, the 7pm from Cardiff.

    The going is called as firm-hard, so let’s look the form:

    Sunak (CON) – Weanling. Wild card. Might crash at the 1st hurdle, might win. 10-1

    Long Bailey (LAB) – Filly. Has done well on the flats in 1:1s but fist time in a Grand National. Expected to do well. 3-1

    Tice (BXP) – Stallion. Quite likely he crashes into Sunak and knocks them both out. Possible a newbie to Remainers but you’ll like this guy (for all the reasons CCHQ will be fearing he does well), 5-1

    Sturegon (SNP) – Mare. Seasoned race horse. odds-on favourite. Evens

    Some “also rans” who will out for a test run, getting in some useful training for the next GE.

    Best hope for Leave is a Cameron-esque 7-way cluster bore ache OR Robinson loses control or likes the sound of his own too much OR Tice pulls up at the first OR Berry wins.

    Who knows Sunak might even win it, but this is more about not f**kng up than winning tonight.

  10. Graham – you seem to be another one who wants to use this site to massage your bitter feelings.

    After all, I could be saying to you and Valerie and all that the current Labour leader is someone with a long history of rubbing shoulders with terrorists and our enemies whilst decrying our allies; that he is one of the most dishonest politicians I have ever met; also – ironically given your comments – that it frightens me to think such an anti-Christian man could become our PM; and further I am positive his economic policies will send the country badly bust and, consequently, hurt the poor he claims to speak up for the worst.

    We all no doubt believe our own opinions of these respective candidates for PM – I certainly do on the above – but how does it help this site to dive into this sort of stuff?

    The trouble is, some of you socialists seem to think – possibly quite unconsciously – that your ‘truth’ is the only one and quite unchallengeable, whereas actually many of us don’t accept your caricatures of the Lab leader, the Con leader or anyone else.

    Being passionate/terrified about your cause doesn’t justify this on this site.

    Shall we all calm down now?

  11. I am also wondering about SE seats where LAB came 2nd in 2017 but still with enough LD votes to squeeze. These could certainly be in play….

  12. Zach,

    Keep taking the pills Zach. With maths like that you have to be a Limp Dem.

  13. TW

    I think Tice successfully exposing Labour’s position on Brexit in particular would actually suit Cons nicely, rather than the contrary.

  14. @Ric

    “Some of the partisan comments on this site, largely from Labour voters are absolutely disgraceful. Is there any moderation? Isn’t this about polling?”

    Great comment on polling, thank you.

    @[email protected]

    “You are missing the point. This is a site to discuss polling, not to call the PM names. If you don’t understand that you shouldn’t be here. This site used to be great but it’s fast becoming like any social media hyper partisan ten a penny platform.”

    ‘Fast becoming’… sorry, where have you been the last few years?

    I’ve said many times before the site needs moderation (of myself included). I can only presume the advertising revenue has jumped since the referendum so that’s not happening.

  15. In fact one of the BBC correspondents picked up on this. Why was BJ in Cornwall very defensive move if you are heading for a healthy majority…

  16. Crazed though it might appear to some of us on its policy merits, I think it’s the Lab WASPI pledge that is continuing to move polls in their favour – perhaps not as much as if the ‘car crashes’ hadn’t occurred, who knows.

  17. NeilJ .. the tory vote is rock solid though .. always 41 /42 % .. labour is pinching one or two percent off the lib dems .. but that wont be enough. At 13 % or so in most polls i’m not sure they can fall any further and must be down to their lowest base of support now who will vote with them come hell or high water. Also it wont do any harm to the tories if it closes a bit and seems not to be a forgone conclusion. May stop some of the ex labour voters who are lending their vote to Conservatives for this one election only (and I’m sure a lot are doing it for only one election) from drifting back because it looks to be all over. I’m not sure this is like 2017 quite .. JC got a lot of momentum from those set peace outdoor rallies in the sunshine where he filled the places with union activists and the like. Cant really do that in December where its dark at 4 o clock and freezing cold or pouring with rain everywhere. .

  18. Zach

    I’m not convinced at all that BJ is heading for a majority, let alone a healthy one. . .

    But either way, he had to visit the S-W at some point. A few seats could be marginal, plus swing voters don’t like being taken for granted.

  19. The trevors,
    “The “story” of what was “missed” in this GE will only be known post 13Dec but so far, and excluding MoE and “house effects”/etc, the polls, the models and the MRP are all more or less aligned.”

    Yes, they are aligned and so we can probably say they reflect the position of voters last week. leave have mostly aligned behind con, and their total of voters is probably as high as it is going to get.

    The question is whether remain will come together behind labour. There are only indirect hints at this from the polling. How well can you ask people what their view will be next week after they change their mind?

    Tonybtg,
    “after the total plane crash (there’s a new one for ya) ”

    Buzzed around making noises, and then dived?

    Carfrew,
    “the block of ice did actually show up for the debate.”

    And never said a word off message.

    Carfrew,
    ” you can use it to cover base load when it’s dark, no wind etc.”

    I rather expect a thorium reactor would be as horrendously expensive as the designs being built now. I dont think running up the reactor is the issue, but that you might build a very expensive plant with a 30 year lifetime, and then it spends 25 of those in effect shut down.

    Jonathan Stuart brown,
    “It matters a great deal to morally decent people. The majority of people who have voted Labour over the decades or might consider doing so this time, are morally decent people.”

    Yougov found 50% of people agreed with an antisemitic statement. Does that mean half the british population are indecent? Or maybe you mean the indecent ones vote conservative, and the decent ones labour? Who do you reckon the indecent half vote for if you think the decent ones vote labour (which you just said)?

  20. @neilj

    im not surprised – the anti-semitism stuff is already baked in and was unlikely to sway anyone who cared enough – its not like there were any new allegations. The interview ? well most people dont watch these outside of politics “fans” – and certainly not many people who are undecided . Yes – the slew of negative headlines in the papers will have cut through – but its just adding to an already enormous pile of anti-corbyn headlines.
    Yes – i think corbyn has become a negative for the labour party – but im not sure there’s anymore mileage in that.
    Does the same apply to johnson? quite possibly – but there may be more mileage for labour in attacking him then the tories bashing corbyn – especially in stopping trad labour voters voting tory cos of brexit.
    I think what may be happening is remainers are starting to coalesce around labour seeing as joe swinson has failed to fire up the “middle ground”- plus possibly the effects of late voter registration by younger people.
    I think the balance of probability is somewhere between a small tory majority and hung parliament with tories biggest party. Labour have cause to be slightly less pessimistic than two weeks ago – and tories will no doubt be increasingly worried that its another 2017.

  21. Come on folks, the personal insults against other posters, and the partisan insults about politicians you personally don’t like are childish and boring.

    Facts and analysis are the only interesting things.

  22. “Shall we all calm down now?”

    Yes, we should. I was out of order earlier on and I apologise to anyone who may have been offended. We all have our deeply held personal views and this isn’t the best place to air them if we wish to engage in constructive discussion and learn from each other’s insights. I promise the UKPR brethren that I will do better going forward and refrain from making comments which are too personal or a reflection of my inherent bias. Wish me luck!

  23. @ARTAIR

    Totally unnecessary. However I missed type SW not SE.

    Truro and Falmouth 2017

    CON win by under 4000 from LAB
    LD have 8000 votes. Only 800 UKIP.

  24. @RIC

    I asked for grounds for your assertion, and received in response a mouthful of invective.

    I rest my case.

  25. John33

    Good for you. :)

    I don’t pretend to be blameless in case it wasn’t clear to anyone.

  26. @BT

    Yes of course but it was interesting that the BBC picked it up. Can’t remember who it was might have been Chris Mason?

  27. @BT SAYS…

    “Ok, at least we now disagree whilst understanding each other.”

    ——-

    Sure. In fact, I think it might be a good idea to have additional debates where parties do send specialists on the topic under discussion. But for a leaders debate – where we might want to check out a leaders’ abilities across the board, under stress with less time to prep – and when the “specialist” was a last-minute ambush not giving time for others to do likewise, there are issues.

    Like they might have sent someone better at interviews than TM during the 2017 elections, but it was useful to know about any bot-like nature, and if Boris has flaws on climate or other things then it would be useful to see them now, before we give him another five years.

    (Tories are used to trying to get others to take the heat for the leader though. That’s how they used Clegg in 2010-2015. I still can’t believe he fell for it, and for so long).

  28. @ Peter Cairns (SNP)

    “How many affairs and how many kids, laying down in front of bulldozers and dying in ditches, Boris Island Airport and a Bridge to France, Pillar boxes to comparing cars to women!”

    Let’s not forget his labelling of gay men as “tank-topped bum boys” and his gaffe which sent that poor woman to Iranian jail during his chaotic stint as Foreign Secretary.

  29. It seems that the BBC have declined the Conservative request for Johnson to appear on the Andrew Marr show unless he agrees a date for his Andrew Neil interview.

  30. Millie,
    “Bad decision by BJ not to attend the Ch 4 debate”

    That depends how badly (or even well) he would have performed. His pulling out suggests someone on his team thought non attendance was better overall, and therefore it was the right decision.

    Valerie,
    “And Conservatives are happy with that”

    I’m not entirely sure they are. The conservative leader was somewhat forced upon them by the BxP.

  31. @miserable old,

    No invective at all. There are several recent posts that are just partisan (invective..if you like the word). We should be discussing polling. This goes for any political persuasion but for whatever reason seems to be more Lab supporting on here. The site is much better without people name calling the PM. It’s pointless and adds nothing.

  32. “It seems that the BBC have declined the Conservative request for Johnson to appear on the Andrew Marr show unless he agrees a date for his Andrew Neil interview.”

    This would be the right thing to do. The BBC are in a very awkward position here.

  33. @ Jonboy re yr 11.30 post: “One anecdote from here in Bristol East. In one particular street in 2017 there was a forest of Labour flags in the gardens – almost every house had one. I drove past last night and there was not a single poster to be seen. This may not mean much, but it could just be an indicator that this Labour constituency has become marginal again.”

    In my local area (a marginal seat) there are very few blue or red posters. I think there were more at GE 2017.
    I’ve had leaflets from the Lab candidate but nowt from the others.
    This GE has something of an unreal feel.

  34. We may disagree on here whether the Chief Rabbi’s main motive was spite or fear, but we probably all agree the timing of his intervention was planned.

    From the POV of damaging Labour’s polling, this timing was a mistake IMO. Also, as others have said, views on this are probably fairly baked in although it made sure the topic wasn’t getting overlooked I suppose.

    However, it prevented Corbyn getting more of a grilling on his tax and spending plans – Neil did challenge him on this, and some other commentators spoke of it, but it got completely overshadowed by the anti-semitism stuff – which was actually a huge plus for Lab.

    I’m quite sure whilst many voters don’t quite think all McDonnell’s plans are achievable, they have no idea of the extent of spending / borrowing it involves, and the possible implications on the economy of this, or that many lower income people will also pay more tax as well as the top 5% (as Corbyn has admitted now, very vaguely).

    I make no comment myself on whether Lab’s plans are desirable, though I am of the opinion that the more people know of them, the fewer people will think they are and support them – hence why Chief Rabbi may have let Lab off the hook, at least thus far.

  35. NHS etc

    Maybe LAB are picking up in the polls because of the NHS issue: ‘secret’ discussion with the Americans, 50,000 new nurses who aren’t necessarily new, austerity effect on NHS, 40 ‘new’ hospitals that aren’t new etc.

    Trump is coming here next week. That may also enthuse the LAB (or rather anti-Tory) base.

  36. BT says – I am actually voting Green in two weeks time despite living in the key Tory-Labour marginal of Norwich North.
    Not for a moment do I take the view that all Tories are ‘bad’ and that Labour people are inherently ‘good’ – I certainly loathed Blair far more than Thatcher. Moreover given a choice betwee the 1951 – 64 Tory Government and the Blair Government, I would not hesitate to opt for the former. I had a lot of time for politicians such as Harold Macmillan – Edward Boyle – Iain Macleod. They were ‘good’ men. I cannot say the same about certain Blairites – never mind the likes of Robert Maxwell.

  37. Ric, okay then, Boris is (more)untrustworthy than Jeremy, says daily mail poll.
    That ok?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7704427/Voters-like-dont-trust-Boris-Johnson-according-new-poll.html

  38. @ BT SAYS – I hope you’re correct about Tice tonight but BXP still seem to think they are in the running in LAB heartlands and the polling shows that BXP take at least 2x more from CON than they do from LAB (so if they are 10%ish average in these seats then that is enough for CON to “miss out” on 30+ seats).

    I would have loved CCHQ to have given Tice a free shot at Hartlepool in return for BXP standing down in other seats and perhaps a “paper pact” is going on (not that I’ve heard about it). The guy has charisma and I’m pretty sure is the “brains” behind a lot of BXP’s “contract with the people” (aka good policy ideas in there manifesto).

    Anyway, one to watch in coming days is more details on some of the points Boris made in his speech and Q&A (eg state-aid, etc)

    Blatantly pinching “Build it in Britain” etc from Brown and UK “jobs first” but folks who know my Brexit views will know I’m a bit of Lexiteer so very happy to see Boris take the abandoned Lexit policies as his own ;)

    Some of the Lexit stuff might be “begrudgingly” offered in an attempt to ensure victory in enough LAB Leave seats but we’ve seen the same with ending austerity.

    IE the risk of PM Corbyn has forced CON to “evolve” into what I hope will be a post ne0liberal centre “nativist” party (ordol!beralism as it should be – not the way the Germans do it)

    Of course Boris needs to win the GE first and I’m still hoping for a smallish majority so ERG can stop him turning into a T!T (Theresa in Trousers) AND, AND, AND he needs to lean a few LAB votes every now and then if the 51st lot try to push too hard (some LAB votes will come in handy when we sort out Social Care, etc as well)

    Sounds a bit like wishful thinking I know but I do see the glass as 52% full ;)

  39. I think you are right with regard to the Chief Rabbi. I don’t doubt that that concerns were sincere but they were certainly coordinated, in my view, to inflict damage on the campaign. I personally think it was a grave mistake – not on political grounds but it has politicised the Jewish community and there appears to be resentment and antipathy developing betwern different minority groups, who themselves feel marginalised through their own experiences not getting sufficent sympathy and attention.

  40. Graham

    That’s fair enough, but my point was – when you do think x y or z is the devil incarnate (whosever side they’re on), this isn’t the site to say so unless you’re making a genuine psephological point (you weren’t even attempting to make a tenous point, let’s be honest!).

    Btw, who do you think will win Norwich North, looks like it will be close again?

  41. TW

    But this ‘Brexit take 2x Con vs Lab’ stuff is a) dubious; b) simplistic; and c) not likely to be the case in longstanding Lab seats.

    It’s a mixed picture of course, even in seats that on paper are similar, but I think you’ll find that Brexit Party are taking at least even numbers of Lab votes in Lab seats – plus anyway, if it’s Lab’s ‘farcical’ (using a word Tice might use) position that is exposed, it’s the Lab Leave voters that may swing to BxP more than the Tory ones – even if there’s more than the latter, and even if more of them have gone BxP up to this point.

    Likewise if Tice went all cuddly with Labour in the debate and absolutely lambasted Conservatives, successfully, the converse of the above would be likely to happen.

    (Roughly speaking)

    Don’t let ‘analysis by spreadsheet’ make you blind to the obvious. :)

  42. Of course this pick up in the polls may be down to LAB stacking support in safe areas. It also could be the case that CON have stacked up support in their areas.

    WHO KNOWS ANYMORE

  43. If the C4 debate was genuinely about the climate emergency then each party should have been free to send their most senior expert to discuss this productively. Johnson and Corbyn are clearly not the climate experts in their respective parties and so were C4 genuinely interested in discussing technical climate interventions / costs?

    Overall I’m a bit bored with the debates, none of which involve much debating. Andrew Neil is devastating at exposing a position’s weakness but sometimes I want to hear a politician explain themselves in full & uninterrupted. I’ve just watched Johnson on Nick Ferrari’s show. Much less adversarial and yet more informative than the others. Much easier to gauge the limit of BJ’s knowledge or interest in a topic where he is allowed to talk himself out on it. He was OK but not particularly impressive. Maybe that’s the case for most of the current lot.

  44. Correction to 1.27 post: “even if there’s more than the latter” should say “even if there’s more OF the latter”

  45. Apparently the organisers for tonight’s debate have fitted airbags to the podiums and seat belts to the chairs.

    Rumours that CON have sent a driverless car are yet to be confirmed ;)

  46. @trevors (and anyone else) – OK – start explaining.

    Your man Johnson has just announced

    – a new state aid regime
    – new public procurement policy to promote local economies
    – a new buy British policy for UK public bodies

    Your job is to explain, in 3,000 word or less, how these announcements fit with;

    1) The new Withdrawal Agreement, in which the full sweep of EU states aid rules will apply across the whole of the UK, if a government policy also covers NI

    2) How this fits with all those roll over trade deals we already have, which – like the Japan deal – open up public procurement

    3) How the most protectionist policies announced by a Tory party for decades fits within the mantra of Brexit allowing more free trade.

    OK – it’s a joke, I know you are a party member, and you don’t write this stuff but this is a serious illustration of how barking mad and illogical everything is on Brexit from the Conservatives.

  47. @BT says…

    Surely the key psephological question is whether Johnson’s demonstrable problems with honesty (from bendy bananas in the 90’s to fibs about hospital building plans to Fiona Bruce on TV last week) is starting to resonate with voters? There are certainly signs that it is.

    Similarly backing out of debates is probably good politics, but it is also cowardly – a brave politician would join any sensible debate available. Again, will the accusation of ‘cowardice’ hit home with voters?

    Johnson has been very lucky in being allowed to operate without the mainstream media making overt and sustained character attacks on him – Corbyn has had ‘anti-semitic’ and ‘marxist’ thrown at him for years; we can all debate the justification, but it is incontrovertable that those accusations have been made, and at length.

    More recently Swinson has been pilloried for being ‘arrogant’ (by declaring herself a PM candidate) and ‘lightweight’. No-one jumped on saying how shocking this was.

    Character assessment move votes – the more so when they are demonstrably based on some form of objective reality (e.g. Boris tells lots of fibs, Corbyn is hard left).

    Surely this is something we should be considering on a polling site?

  48. @ BT SAYS – Well if Tice wants to be let into Tory party after this GE then he’ll know what to say and who to use his best attack lines on ;)

    99% certain if he does that then the ‘usual suspects’ will say he’s a Tory ringer (or a “rig” in horsey folks lingo)

    Fingers and toes all crossed – “all to play for” as they say ;)

  49. @ ALEC – ??!??! My job?? Errr… my name’s not Boris mate. Jog on ;)

  50. The more people see of Johnson the less they like him, IMO. I think he is fast becoming an electoral liability for the Tories. His bluster and bravado approach may have worked well work in the past but now as leader of the Tory party people want reall answers and narrative.

    I think Johnson is struggling, perhaps drowning.

    Over the next week or so his suitability, and trustworthiness, to be PM will be focused on.

    (I expect the Tories will increase the targetting of Corbyn, too.)

    The polls published at the weekend will be important. I am hopeful that another hung parliament will occur.

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