The mid-week polls so far are below:

SavantaComRes (25th-26th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(nc)
YouGov/Sky/Times (25th-26th) – CON 43%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 13%(-3), BREX 4%(+1)
ICM/Reuters (22th-25th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1)
Kantar (21st-25th) – CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 3%(+1)
Survation/GMB (20th-23rd) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(+2), BREX 5%(nc)

Taken individually, almost all the changes in these polls are within the margin of error (Kantar is the only exception). However, looking at them as a group there is a clear trend, with every poll showing a slight drop in Tory support and a slight increase for Labour. Taken together it’s clear there’s been a slight narrowing of the race though, of course, that still leaves a Conservative lead between 7 and 11 points. As usual, it is almost impossible to ascribe specific causes to this.

As well as the standard polls this week, YouGov published their MRP model. MRP is a method of using a large national sample to project shares at smaller geographical areas – in this case Parliamentary constituencies. By modelling how different demographics vote in seats with different characteristics, and then applying that model to each constituency, the MRP model produces vote shares for each individual constituency and, via that, projects seat totals for each party. Famously the YouGov MRP model projected a hung Parliament in 2017 when most people expected a Conservative majority.

The model this time is less surprising – it projected national vote shares of CON 43%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%, BREX 3% (so very much in line with YouGov’s traditional polling), and seat numbers of Conservative 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Liberal Democrat 13. This represents a Conservative majority of 68, much what we would expect to find on those shares of the vote (though the detailed projection is interesting, with the Conservative gains coming largely in the North and the urban West Midlands, with notable gains in West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Stoke). Full details of the MRP model are here.

Finally this week, we’ve seen what is only the second Scottish poll of the campaign, this time from Ipsos MORI. Topline figures with changes from the 2017 election are CON 26%(-3), LAB 16%(-11), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 44%(+7). Tabs for that are here.


724 Responses to “Midweek polling update”

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  1. @ Several

    “Also of course there was the very late surge for Labour ”

    I think we should study this common statement about 2017 more closely. Yes, the final polls were suggesting about 36% for Labour, and the final count gave about 40%. But the polls had actually been suggesting 36% for a week or so on average, there was no particular change in the polls towards the end.

    So the question is, was it a late surge between the last polls and the 8th June? Or were the polls just wrong and underestimating Labour? I’d suggest the polls were wrong, and they’re probably wrong now, though not necessarily in the same direction.

  2. I see Electoral Calculus have now upgraded their forecast of a Con OM from 12 to 22 seats, following the latest polls.

  3. @JonesIB

    Thanks very much. It’s all very interesting

  4. “Johnson is a extraordinarily divisive figure,…”

    Remarkable, really, that we are hearing this kind of thing now.

    Back in June, Johnson was seen as a winner who could connect with non Tory voters, who had won twice in Labour’s London fiefdom, and who represented the liberal, one nation strand of Conservatism.

    Now he is an untrusted. divisive….

  5. @ Charles

    I think the time for an Alliance between the Lib Dems and Labour has long gone.

    The fallout of this election will probably be the end of both parties in their current form.

    The battle for control of the Labour party really is going to be monumental! If a Corbynite wins the labour leadership, then I see mass defections out of Labour and a new centrist party formed. Better get it done early in the Parliament.

    I see the Tories, once Brexit is done, being quite pro-European on a “quid quo pro” basis again. Back to a common market relationship.

    If the Lib Dems just stand still in this election, and lose a couple of seats like Brecon & Radnor, then where they go is very uncertain. 2010 coalition was a huge mistake for them, but then we wouldn’t be talking about Brexit now!

  6. I note the London Bridge attacks are being very politicised now.

    Massive offensive from BoJo on Twitter re sentencing laws.

    JC on Sky who are soundbiting that he does not necessarily think terrorists should serve full sentences. Interesting attitude

  7. I have posted much to much on this site of late, so this suggestion is the last one till at least this evening.

    I think that for democratic and tactical reasons the Labour party should issue a brief two year update to its manifesto stating what it would do in two years in the totally unlikely event that it does not win outright and has to put through those parts of its manifesto which can gain the assent of other parties. In this period:

    it would avoid the economic disaster of a Johnson Brexit which will either involve a no deal Brexit followed by long years of negotiations with the EU and united states or a humiliating climb down to the EU followed by long years of negotiations with the EU and United states. This can only be done by negotiating an off-the-peg Norway type deal with the EU and then putting that to a confirmatory referendum.

    It will end austerity and concentrate on the key areas of education and the NHS both of which are currently on their knees

    It will negotiate arrangements with Scotland which the SNP want short of independence and along with that look determinedly at the regional inequalities and links between regions that need to be reduced or ironed out (e.g. in my view it would be much better to improve rail links between Liverpool, Hull, Edinburgh and Glasgow than spend all this money moving commuters from Birmingham to London). In this way if there is to be a new referendum the people of Scotland will have a viable choice between a genuine devo-max with the advantages of a co-ordinated infrastructure as against go it alone.

    It will seek to end the injustice to the wasp women (backed by the SNP)

    After 2 years it will turn to the more controversial and costly parts of its agenda and if it cannot gain backing for these there will have to be a new election.

    The effect of this would be to make it clear to people what they were likely to get if they vote for one of the remain parties and remove the perceived threat that they might be sleepwalking into Venezuela. It would also get a bit of the ‘100 days’ boost that politicians in the past have tried to get and that Johnson is trying to gain for himself through his ‘oven ready’ remarks.

  8. I have to disagree with Anthony on the cesspit comment.

    While the server appeared to be down last night (apparently clearing your cache solved it- maybe Anthony switched servers or something) I was stuck with getting info from twitter and Political betting and glad to find this back again. Most of the political betting issues are the reverse order of posts and also the tendency to have quotes taking up the bulk of many posts so it is difficult to follow conversations.

    I get we don’t uphold his high standards and it is disappointing that some key posters (Rogermexico for one) have disappeared with no-one to replace them but it is still a good site and we are much better behaved and more on topic than CIF.

  9. @ Alec

    “Back in June, Johnson was seen as a winner who could connect with non Tory voters, who had won twice in Labour’s London fiefdom, and who represented the liberal, one nation strand of Conservatism.

    Now he is an untrusted. divisive….”

    Alec, unfortunately for Labour, we can say exactly the same about the Corbyn – McDonnell leadership.

  10. @DAVID CARROD
    I see Electoral Calculus have now upgraded their forecast of a Con OM from 12 to 22 seats, following the latest polls

    It was giving the 22 figure yesterday morning, before the latest polls

  11. @Shevii

    We don’t often mention it, but I think we should bear in mind that as well as being one of the UK’s best psephologists, AW is also a former Conservative Party councillor.

    I am sure that the general decline in the tone of the debate – from all sides of the spectrum – is a big part of his disillusionment with this place. But the overwhelmingly hostile (c.f “evil, lowlives etc”) commentary about the party that he is actually a member of probably turns his stomach as well.

    I hope that rather than switching off comments altogether, he perhaps insists on user registration instead – that would help with some of the worst of it, and would make blocking people simpler.

    I will certainly miss this place if it goes, although less than I would have a few years ago, and the decline is unquestionable.

    As to alternatives, as an online gamer I would recommend a Discord channel. Purpose built for groups of like-minded people to communicate, and very easy to modify and use for uploading images, video clips and other media. You could have a thread on it, locked to the admin, where AW’s blogposts are placed (along with any other source that the admin thought were worthy of following – although you could also have seperate threads for each of those sources). You could also easily provide sub-channels for individual discussions or subjects (Scottish politics, perhaps?). Plus there is integrated voice support that is very simple to use – if anyone fancied actually chatting for real.

    Plus it can all still remain anonymous (gamers very rarely use their actual name online – usually a preferred “tag” of somekind).

  12. @ Charles

    “What it needs to do is to ensure that the LibDem vote is ‘lumpy’”

    You are right, I was being simplistic for brevity. In the end though, if people were to vote more tactically, there are larger numbers of constituencies where the tactical vote goes to Lab rather than to LibDem, so the overall effect is a swing from LibDem to Lab.

  13. Is Andrew Marr trying to emulate Andrew Neil?

  14. AW is quite right to comment on some of the more partisan and unfriendly posts on here.

    I hold my hand up and accept that I have been guilty of this from time to time.

    However, people are partisan when it comes to politics and we just can’t help seeing things in the light of our own beliefs and values, and we comment in a similar way.

    Compared to other sites I find UKPR a mostly courteous place to read and comment on the cut and trust of political debate.

    Thanks to all those on here who share my own beliefs and values.

    But perhaps more importantly, many thanks to all those on here who strongly disagree with me. There is nothing more valuable than having ones own prejudices challenged in a coherent and constructive way.

    It is perhaps more useful to read twenty posts that disagree with me than twenty that do.

  15. GOAROUNDNOW

    @”Is Andrew Marr trying to emulate Andrew Neil?”

    No

  16. @JONESINBANGOR 9.58

    I think that the perceived misgivings of the Corbyn-McDonnell leadership have been priced in long before the campaign started.

    Alec’s point is that Boris was recently elected as PM and many had high hopes for his leadership capability which perhaps aren’t living up to their expectations.

  17. @Neil A

    Funny you should mention discord….

    https://discord.gg/RQN68s7

  18. BoJo on form – I would say

  19. @ TURNCOAT

    I genuinely don’t think Johnson will last that long as PM.

    He will win this election sure enough, but the Tories will soon have other ideas. Sharp knives on those backbenches, and lots of enemies.

  20. GOAROUNDNOW

    @”BoJo on form – I would say”

    Yes-that’s the problem.

  21. @colin

    Hi

    Problem in what way?

  22. @NeilA

    So, you’re a gamer. I hope you don’t spend as much time playing as my oldest son used to do!

    You make some interesting point about Anthony’s politics maybe playing a part in his general disillusionment with this site, but I’m happy to grant him rather higher tolerance levels than maybe you are in terms of accepting the expression of alternative political views! If you’re instead talking about abusive comments being made about his preferred political party, then I’m in agreement with you but surely someone as normally balanced and fair as you, will accept that the abuse has sometimes flowed in opposite political directions.

    I expect if Anthony was a former Labour councillor he may well have had his stomach turned too by some of the comments directed at Labour figures on this site. This isn’t yaa-boo whataboutery, just a statement of fact.

    To improve the general behaviour and standards on UKPR we must direct our censures and lectures even-handedly.

  23. Alec,
    “Perhaps I would be slightly more worried if I were a Conservative right now though. They are clearly well ahead,… ”

    Lots of people seem to be saying con are ahead. But I just looked at the latest yougov linked and was quite shocked at how small is the support for con…at least to justify a claim they are well ahead.

    The raw results are con 31%, lab 25%, lib 10% BxP 2%.
    Comparing to the previous survey, thats -2 con and +1 lab.

    Then we have 13% dont know, and 9% will not vote. The WNV are equally divided in terms of past vote. Since some did vote before, they may still vote this time, but presumably are likely to vote about equally for all three of lib lab con.

    However, the DK are stacked in the lib and less so lab former Vote column. So one might expect they will break for a remain party.

    Libs still on 10%, greens 2%, SNP 3%. Bxp on 2%. So thats a further 15% voting for remain parties as opposed to 2% for leave parties. If everyone transferred to the optimum brexit candidate locally, then thats leave 33%, remain 41%.

    Conservatives have clearly seen their best hope is to divide the remain vote. The result will depend on whether it comes together. Really no change since the start of the campaign. Just as much likelihood of a con loss of overall control now as at the start.

    As I mentioned before, giving figures including Scotland is probably depressing the true labour share in England, which is where the election will be decided. SNP are the clear favourite in Scotland and their 3% vote share is wholly geograhically divided. (whereas eg green is likely to be evenly spread). Which means SNP will get lots of seats in Scotland for 3%, while green would be lucky to get 2. (a fair representation for 2% would be 13).

    Its true con will also do badly in Scotland, but in leave/remain terms SNP represent an effective remain vote in Scotland, and reflect strong support for a socialist party there. So arguably their share should be added to labour if the aim is to see how socialist remain are doing compared to plutocrat leave. If you do this, then the two big parties are actually very close in national vote share.

    However there are still a lot more voters on the remain centrist position whose votes will be largely ineffectual unless they change them tactically. Mostly this means libs voting lab, but also some residual BxP who should vote con, and in a few cases lab who should vote something else remainish.

  24. Andrew Marr is a nice bloke but he is totally lightweight. Has no skills to control the interviews he is conducting and fails to lin people down with forensic questioning. Andrew Neil may not be everyone’s cup of tea but he is ruthlessly prepared and on top of his detail. It has been nothing short of a disgrace that the BBC have failed so badly in this election in ensuring parity with all parties. They were already unpopular with Conservatives and now losing friends quickly from everywhere else.

  25. I think Marr did OK but he’s not Neil.

    Neil would have basically told Johnson to stop waffling in generalities and tell him that he is asking the questions and expects Johnson to answer them.

    Anyway, on polling :-)

    Does anyone know when we can expect to get an update on the Yougov MRP?

  26. The tone here is a lot more civil since yesterdays Great Outage.

    Also, a few people seem to be missing. Has AW banned them?

  27. Marr’s style plays to BJ?s strengths……allowing him to stray off topic and run the clock down with waffle and clichés.

    Nick Ferrari did a good job of exposing his weaknesses on LBC though.

  28. Jonesinbangor,
    “The WASPI issues is a minor vote winner on one hand for the Labour party,”

    It isnt a sideshow if you are the one retiring 5 years later. More than that though, the whole question of what age we can afford to retire is an open one. We could in principle all retire earlier, we are rich enough as a society to do so.

    It might indeed alleviate some of our problems for care of the elderly, if their children were by then themselves retired and so able to help their parents themselves rather than going to work. Maybe we should have a rather better allowance for people to retire early to help a parent? Is that part of what 60 year old women used to do? My mother and aunt both did.

    “I see the Tories, once Brexit is done, being quite pro-European on a “quid quo pro” basis again. Back to a common market relationship.”

    So you reckon con wil in the end opt for SM+CU relationship.

  29. I wonder if we can use a tennis analogy for Labour’s current predicament in this campaign. I’d say they are 5-2 down in the final set, a break down and with Johnson serving for the match. A lot of tennis players quite often describe this as the stage where their losing opponent is at his or her most dangerous. Inhibitions gone, nothing much to lose and they come out swinging.

    So how could Labour come out swinging and force the match into a tie-break or two games ahead to win situation! Where are the servers weaknesses. Complacency the equivalent of a weak second serve. The server has character flaws maybe and this is their weak backhand?

    I’d say Labour has to go on the attack and wheel out some attack dogs willing to go below Johnson’s belt. From some of the canvassing I’ve done Johnson’s character and persona is a sitting duck that Corbyn’s refusal to go personal has allowed to waddle off into the undergrowth. Will Corbyn change his tack in the final Leaders debate next Friday?

    If he really is swinging in the final set, it’s his chance to put Johnson’s character centre stage over the last week of the campaign. If it tips a few Labour leave voters currently holding their nose over a Johnson vote back into the Labour camp, and fire up some Lib Dem/Labour tactical voting to stop Tory MPs being elected, who knows. I think Brexit and manifestos have run their course now in terms of voting determinants and Johnson’s character is where further juice can be squeezed. Raab went deeply personal on Corbyn this morning and I think Corbyn’s team has to do likewise. The stakes are very very high, are they not?

    Best attack dog in Labour’s team? Thornberry without a doubt. She needs to be wheeled out, and Long-Bailey too.

  30. @Goaroundnow
    I’ll have a pound of whatever you are on please

  31. @Neil A

    While I agree that Discord is ‘great’ for those that like it, for those that do not, it’s not.

    Discord requires 3rd party software. No thanks.

  32. Danny,

    A CU arrangement is not such an unlikely outcome due to the incompatibilities of for example US, Chinese and Indian trade agreements with the EU (and the UK for that matter), in particular on standards. We have a significant trade deficit on goods and to maintain the smooth running of the automotive industry for example, a CU will be a sensible approach to take.

    Agreements relating to services (we are net exporters of these) are less clear cut and a more divergent relationship is more likely.

    I suspect once the election is out of the way (assuming BJ gets a majority), he will go for close alignment for the foreseeable future at least.

  33. Crossbat11,
    “So how could Labour come out swinging and force the match into a tie-break or two games ahead to win situation!”

    I see it more like a bridge where the demolition charges already went off…and nothing happened. Will it continue to stand, or will the whole thing suddenly fall into the water?

  34. @Hal

    Doubt it. I’d guess that those who post (more) with their emotions get easily annoyed at a lack of access, and go elsewhere for a while.

  35. @ TonyBTG

    “Does anyone know when we can expect to get an update on the Yougov MRP?”

    I certainly don’t know, but here’s my guess. I suspect, like last time, they’ll start doing daily updates at some point, probably with about 1 week to go. Say from Wednesday. And they probably won’t update until that point. So I’ll go for an update on 10:00 PM on Wednesay (one week after the first) and daily updates from then. I have more confidence in that predication than anything to do with the election itself.

  36. Just to remind people about polling for 2017. There’s a few here – me included – who have been trying to work out where in the last polling “cycle” we currently are compared to last time.

    Forget that – let’s compare the latest polls to the last published polls before the 2017 election:

    Con 2017 Labb 2017 LD 2017 Con now Lab now LD now

    BMG
    46,33,8/39,33,13
    Comres
    44,34,9/43,33,13
    Panelbase
    44,36,7/42,34,13
    YouGov
    42,35,10/43,34,13

    On this evidence Lab has already made up the ground, don’t you think?

    We really have seen it all before, folks,

  37. @Hal

    I hope ChrisLane1945 is still about because I was rather hoping that, after Villa’s fine win at Old Trafford later today, I’d be able to gloatingly pull his leg.

    Of course, I could now end up with egg on my face and be rather glad he can no longer access UKPR!!

    :-)}

  38. On behalf of Chris Lane I’d think he’d say that he thought the Lib Dem numbers look a bit high.

  39. @HAL

    “The tone here is a lot more civil since yesterdays Great Outage.

    Also, a few people seem to be missing. Has AW banned them?”

    The technical issues are still ongoing. I can’t access this page via a standard “www.ukpollingreport.co.uk” search. I can only do so via clicking on the full blog page link on Anthony’s Twitter page.

  40. RAF – seek out the UK Polling Report cookie and kill it. I’ve been fine since then.

  41. Thanks Nick. I’ll try that.

  42. @NickP

    Thanks for that round up of those 2017 eve of poll opinion polls. I’d been trying to dig those up without success because I couldn’t quite recall how adrift of the final result some were. I remember Survation’s last poll getting it almost dead right, but I didn’t think the rest were as far adrift as they obviously were. Crikey.

    Caveat that they won’t necessarily be that wrong this time, and very different factors are at play in this election, but it does rather suggest that we should all be just a little bit careful about calling this election at this stage on the basis of current opinion polls, electoral calculi and MRP models.

    Interestingly, they weren’t too far out with the eventual Tory figure of 42%, probably overestimating it a bit, but they were all quite a way out underestimating Labour’s final vote of 40%.

    The shy Labour voter may exist after all. Or the legendary late Labour surge. More prosaically, maybe the polls were just a little bit rubbish in 2017 and are so again.

    :-)}

  43. Lots of outages yesterday; not only 6 hours of UKPR, but I also lost Sky broadband between 2.30pm and 8.15, then again from 9 to 10.

    Is this the long-awaited Russian contribution to the election?

    (PS: UKPR refreshing is behaving better today than for weeks!).

  44. crossbat11

    I read a thing after the last election about some west london seats where the Labour incumbent sitting on a narrow majority was convinced he had lost, couldn’t get his known voters out, no enthusiasm for those who would bother. The message at the doorsteps was doom.

    He has no clue to this day who the voters are that showed up and boosted his majority to the 10,000 mark.

    I think pollsters and even old school activists just haven’t got access to a whole demographic of voters and can’t make any judgement on whether they will show up or what they’ll vote.

  45. by the way all those 2017 polls are available on wiki under 2017 general election polling.

  46. I’ve been having a look at the YG crossbreaks (yes, I know…) for the last three polls to see where the changes are. These are

    Last fieldwork: 22nd/26th/29th Nov

    Headline C-L-LD: 42-30-16 / 43-32-13 / 43-34-13

    The main changes to highlight that are maybe above the noise threshold:

    Labour female: 31 / 33 / 38

    LibDem 18-24: 27 / 20 / 12

    Midlands+Wales: 45-32-15 / 51-30-11 / 48-37-8

  47. GOAROUNDNOW

    @”Problem in what way?”

    He talked over Marr in deliberate attempt to evade questioning.

    He laid far too great an emphasis on Labour’s part in the sentencing regime.

    He sought -as he constantly does-to differentiate his administration from the Coalition .

    I believe that these tactics are vote losers-they speak of evasion & dishonesty-the very qualities which he is accused of.

    Marr didn’t help himself by parading his utter disdain for Johnson. I militated against forensic , fact based interrogation.

    This performance by BJ is certainly not going to halt the catastrophic closure of the VI gap with Labour.
    If we get a Corbyn / McDonnell administration I will blame BJ for it, and for the years which Tom Bowers explains will follow.

  48. @Everyone –

    We have cuts/failures/loss of connections.

    Americans have outages.
    And vitamins that rhyme with sh!te.
    And herbs with no H.

    Let’s do this properly.

  49. @CB11

    In your tennis scenario we are two breaks down :)

    I’ve been wondering if some of the hard hitters (e.g. Thornberry) have been kept off the airwaves because they are potential leadership challengers. An effective presence in the election would pose a future threat to the Corbyn project.

    It’s pretty clear I think that the Tories have plateaued, with no more BXP votes to squeeze. But there is still an active squeeze of remainer LD voters. When voters are moving, the polls will inevitably lag behind, especially MRP with a 7-day polling window, so we can’t yet tell how far this has to run. Still all to play for.

  50. alec

    have you gone all UKIP?

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