The mid-week polls so far are below:

SavantaComRes (25th-26th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(nc)
YouGov/Sky/Times (25th-26th) – CON 43%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 13%(-3), BREX 4%(+1)
ICM/Reuters (22th-25th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1)
Kantar (21st-25th) – CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 3%(+1)
Survation/GMB (20th-23rd) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(+2), BREX 5%(nc)

Taken individually, almost all the changes in these polls are within the margin of error (Kantar is the only exception). However, looking at them as a group there is a clear trend, with every poll showing a slight drop in Tory support and a slight increase for Labour. Taken together it’s clear there’s been a slight narrowing of the race though, of course, that still leaves a Conservative lead between 7 and 11 points. As usual, it is almost impossible to ascribe specific causes to this.

As well as the standard polls this week, YouGov published their MRP model. MRP is a method of using a large national sample to project shares at smaller geographical areas – in this case Parliamentary constituencies. By modelling how different demographics vote in seats with different characteristics, and then applying that model to each constituency, the MRP model produces vote shares for each individual constituency and, via that, projects seat totals for each party. Famously the YouGov MRP model projected a hung Parliament in 2017 when most people expected a Conservative majority.

The model this time is less surprising – it projected national vote shares of CON 43%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%, BREX 3% (so very much in line with YouGov’s traditional polling), and seat numbers of Conservative 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Liberal Democrat 13. This represents a Conservative majority of 68, much what we would expect to find on those shares of the vote (though the detailed projection is interesting, with the Conservative gains coming largely in the North and the urban West Midlands, with notable gains in West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Stoke). Full details of the MRP model are here.

Finally this week, we’ve seen what is only the second Scottish poll of the campaign, this time from Ipsos MORI. Topline figures with changes from the 2017 election are CON 26%(-3), LAB 16%(-11), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 44%(+7). Tabs for that are here.


724 Responses to “Midweek polling update”

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  1. First?

    This MRP stuff is making elections boring.

    Oh for the unpredictability of individual seat swings to make for a lively election night!

  2. Excellent well-argued piece, AW.

  3. Plenty still to play for all parties.

    I do think the Labour “tell them what they want to hear” strategy on Brexit is very disingenuous and won’t work. In fact, it’s likely to backfire.

    Scotland and North East Wales will be very interesting.

    Not surprised the MRP model shows Ceredigion staying PC. Ynys Môn will be tight.

  4. Yep. Will be interesting to see whether the polls over the next 48 hours show any impact of Corbyn’s car crash interview.

    The 7%-11% range above was more like 8%-12% a week or two back and it’s possible that it could have moved back given how poor Corbyn was.

    There hasn’t really been a game changer in this election as yet and whilst that interview could cause large changes, it could stop any momentum from building

  5. Something went wrong in above post

    Meant to say ‘probably won’t cause large changes’ rather than ‘could cause’ (took out a negative and didn’t proof read!)

  6. @ADAM

    My hunch is that it won’t make a blind but of difference. I don’t think people expected him to come across well on any of the issues covered, but we’ll see. I was incredulous at the beginning of the first week of the campaign – the Tories were mired in issues of all sorts yet, not only did they not slip back in the polls, they went up. I can only assume that people pay far less attention than we like to imagine.

  7. Anyone know how often YouGov will be updating their MRP predictions?

  8. @Adam

    My guess (and that’s all it is, and I accept it may be based on wishful thinking) is that tonight’s ice cube wil have more resonance than Corbyn’s car crash. I think more people will be worried about percieved cowardice than about antisemitism.

    Nonetheless, I agree with Batty that Johnson now has little choice but to avoid Andrew Neil. Given where we’ve reached, it’s better to be viewed as a coward than as an indecisive probable-coward not on top of his brief in a grilling.

    If they’re clever, Labour could turn a longstanding trope on its head here. I’m not sure I can remember an election in my substantial lifetime when the Tories haven’t used the line “would you trust Labour with national security?”; this time Labour can use “would you trust a coward with national security?”.

  9. John33

    “I can only assume that people pay far less attention than we like to imagine.”

    I tend to assume that most people do pay attention – but only to those matters that confirm their existing beliefs. Contradictory information is easily bypassed in the human mind.

    As always, in elections, the views of those who are set in their ways are irrelevant. Only among those who care enough to think about issues, and for whom a narrative has been developing, but isn’t yet fully formed, will the incidents that excite us political geeks even register.

    But there are enough of such folk to make a difference, and the political strategists who devise election manoeuvres may be wholly inadequate at determining what will eventually influence the narrative that these folk choose to accept.

  10. OLDNAT

    That was exactly what I meant – I just didn’t put it as well as you!

  11. John33

    Or as long-windedly!

  12. I think the assumption in the Tory inner circle is that what worked during the referendum campaign can be repeated again. But asking people for a five year mandate is quite different than the one to deliver Brexit. It will be interesting to see whether it works for them or against them come polling day. Whenever there is a strong expectation in politics, I always get the feeling something else will happen. When do things ever go to plan?

  13. @ EOR

    “Anyone know how often YouGov will be updating their MRP predictions?”

    No, sorry. I’ve already been poking around their FAQs and articles to see if there’s any clues. Last time around, they updated it daily, but maybe they’re saving that for the last week. I’d hope they’d at least update every two days, and we’re almost due that. Although the poll wasn’t released until 10:00 PM yesterday, the datestamp suggests it was ready early in the morning (7:34 AM) and they just let the web pages go live at 10:00 PM. So maybe when we get up tomorrow?

    AW would know, presumably, but he’s not telling.

  14. Why are some people so willing to use cliches at every possible opportunity?

    I look forward to hearing about an applicant for the post of tea lady giving a “car-crash” interview.

    Hard to believe that we are the nation of Shakespeare and Dickens.

  15. @eor

    Last time the mrp model was updated daily using days from the previous week or so. Given the earlier launch this year updates might be a little less frequent initially I guess.

  16. @TRIGGUY, JAMESB

    Thanks both – that’s what I recalled too, and the wording on the page wasn’t inconsistent with it being daily this time as well. But as you both say, perhaps it will increase in frequency as we get closer to polling day.

  17. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    As the Rt Hon James Hacker reminded us, you can talk in cliches until the cows come home!

  18. R&D

    English exceptionalist dugs!

    The nation of Burns, Scott and McGonagall can match you in clichés any time, as can the nation of Thomas, Edwards and Williams as well as that of Wilde, Joyce and Shaw.

    (Though Irish born, Scots resident, McGonagall takes top spot!))

  19. EoR

    Read Shakespeare, and it’s full of clichés – it’s as bad as the Bible!

  20. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    I’ll see you a “car-crash” and raise you a “train-wreck”.

  21. Has there been more polling today?

    Electoral Caculus now have the Tory Overall majority down to 12.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

  22. Going back to Labour’s announcement of a change of direction on Brexit – I don’t think this angle was covered in the discussions here earlier, but apologies if I missed it… isn’t it a bit weird for a party to announce a change to their election strategy, and explain who it is targeted at? I mean, wouldn’t they normally just… get on with doing it differently as they see fit?

    Feels like if you’re in the position of needing to tell people what your strategy is, and even more so needing to tell your target demographic that it’s applicable to them, that you either have no confidence in the effectiveness of your actual communication or you’re pretty desperate to make an impression?

  23. Noswaith Dda from the glorious Ynys Mon/Isle of Anglesey.

    This is a micro-cosm where its Parliamentary, Senedd, and local authority boundary are identical and where there are only 50,000 voters. It is (by tier) Labour, Plaid, Independent. The voters are very aware of who does what at which level and as a result have no qualms switching to who they perceive will do the best for the island (not Wales and certainly not the UK). They also do not tend to favour ‘outsider’ candidates nor candidates who do not speak Cymraeg. It voted to Leave in 2016.

    At parliamentary level Labour – in the shape of Albert Owen (‘Our Albert’), have held the seat since 2001 when they took it from Plaid (long story, all to do with local issues) and Plaid have long since held ambition to re-take the seat. Our Albert is standing-down.

    It was thought that the Plaid-LibDem-Green alliance would see this seat go to Plaid – but it isn’t turning out that way on the ground, here or elsewhere in Wales where Plaid is the Remain candidate.

    Part of the ‘alliance’ was that each of the other two parties activists would help the one that was standing. That isn’t happening, probably because the local Lib Dem and Green vote tends to be middle class English and pro-Union and is not particularly minded to help a party that wants independence. Knowing a couple of the plaid councillors and some Plaid party activists(everyone knows everyone round here) I can say they are rapidly becoming very disillusioned, blaming their party leadership for ‘trusting’ two – what they view as – English parties and think – from believing they would get 8 seats a few weeks ago, to now thinking they’ll be lucky if they have 4 and that they have been royally set-up by the Lib Dems and have walked into an ambush with their eyes wide open.

    This seat – which at the start of this was touted as likely to go Plaid, is actually now a straight fight between Labour and the Tories with Plaid a distant third. The Labour Leave vote has gone Tory and there are tory posters in windows in areas that have never voted tory. Because they want Brexit and because the Labour administration in Cardiff is viewed as a disaster and they have a genuine fear that a Corbyn government will be as inept as Mark Drakeford’s in Cardiff. The UKIP/Brexit Party support has also gone Tory.

    Labour locally appears to have taken the bulk of the Lib Dem & Green vote with Plaid making little headway.

    A question for JONESINBANGOR. I hear Hywel Williams (Plaid MP for neighbouring Arfon) is under intense pressure for the same reason – the LibDem/Green vote going Labour, hence why Plaid are sending Leanne wood there.

    As to my allegiances? I always vote Plaid at Senedd and council level, but Labour at UK level since 1975. This election I will be voting Tory.

  24. @Freddo

    “@ROSIEANDDAISIE

    I’ll see you a “car-crash” and raise you a “train-wreck”.”

    Surely nothing beats Andrew Michell’s problems in exiting a downing street barrier being described in the tabloids as “Gategate”

  25. @RAF

    And with a margin of error which has LAB on 304. Do we reckon they just want to be the 2019 of YouGov……. hahahaha

  26. Didn’t know about the new thread:

    @All

    Hearing on social media of folk cancelling their TV Licences over Johnson and Neil non-interview. They think the BBC/Neil knew Johnson wouldn’t show, and it was a Corbyn setup.

    @Freddo (RE: timing of anti-Semitism stories)

    Maybe it was timed to have at the postal voters.

    @Danny

    “broadcasters responsibility is to be impartial to parties”

    Which contradicts what Boris said in an interview when nipped about the debate where only he and Corbyn appeared. He said that it was just for the people likely to become PM.

    So not about parties. He wants it to be about two men.

    @Dandelionwine

    “I find him an uninspired speaker and debater but I consider him competent enough not to say something stupid or inflammatory in a many sided, fairly technical debate.”

    That’s the crux. He is not up on technical details. He prefers to guff and bluster through everything with general impressions, rather than details. He’d get mauled on the details.

    @ProfHoward

    “I think Johnson does poorly with women voters and those who are educated past GCSE.”

    Just for balance, I recently spoke to a woman who hasn’t been educated past GCSE, but nobody’s fool. She runs circles round qualified folk in her chosen field of employment.

    She’s not particularly political (similar to Mrs Statgeek in that regard, and being her friend, that sort of makes sense), I mentioned the potential no-show for Neil’s interview to both of them.

    I paraphrase, but this was the crux of her reply.

    “That’s no surprise, is it? He’s just a blithering verbing noun.”

    I never heard her swear before. It was delightful. :D

    @Bantams

    Scottish Labour loved the BBC in 2013/2014, and they probably still do, compared to other outlets.

  27. RAF

    The EC forecast for Scotland is based on “opinion polls from 19 Nov 2019 to 25 Nov 2019, sampling 2,055 people.” ie the Panelbase and Ipsos-MORI polls.

    For clarity that means they are averaging 2 somewhat different data sets

    Panelbase – SNP 40% : SCon 28% : SLab 20% SLD 11%
    Ipsos-MORI – SNP 44% : SCon 26% : SLab 16% SLD 11%

    I’d be hesitant about making accurate seat calculations from that limited data.

  28. @Zach

    Look at this Twtter comment from Electoral Calculus seeming to suggest that the Tory UNS lead (on EC) of around 10% is booster by around 4% by the Brexit pullout in Tory seats.

    Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) Tweeted:
    @RockboltG Hi Rich. Good question. But the Con lead is less impressive than it looks because of the Brexit partial stand-aside. If that hadn’t happened, the Con lead would be only about 6pc which only just enough for a bare majority. https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1200067807414824960?s=20

  29. Where do people think we are?
    I thought a few weeks ago that Jo would be the fresh face who would get a 2010 Nick Clegg VI boost AND corner the hardcore Remain support.
    It seems the more Jo has been on TV, the more people have disliked her. The Lib Dems are tied to her.
    Remain support seems to have taken November off. Maybe they were overdue a holiday after relentless intense campaigning since June 23rd 2016. If they have taken December off as well, then the Tories should do very well.
    If not, maybe not.
    I can still see Brexit getting 1 in 4 of the seats they contest. If They had contested all the seats, then the Tories would have lost lots of support in the West Midlands. Maybe Labour would have lost it as well. But the Leave vote would have been divided.
    The Leave vote so far seems to be trumping other considerations.
    If Labour get really thumped, then I hope that the decent Labour posters on this site can put it down to the anti-Semitic infiltrators. Hopefully they can expel them all and relaunch in the locals next year. And put up a really credible alternative government next time.
    Anti-Semitism can land anywhere at anytime. The Conservatives, Brexit and Lib Dem could be next. They should not feel smug nor superior. Prior to 2016 I could not think of Labour and anti-Semitism in the same sentence.
    I do not think there is much enthusiasm for the Conservatives because they have been very poor in the campaign and held Number Ten and Eleven, the Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary office for nine years.
    An exhausted team may beat a poor team in an FA Cup Final. But it does not make for a great spectacle.
    Boris could still blow it. He may still need Brexit and Unionist support to govern.
    Corbyn could have won this. If he had two decent weeks, then he still could. At least the biggest party.
    The SNP – ask Old Nat.
    If Jo Swinson cannot score in Scotland and among women, then she is not much of an asset. I did not anticipate this being the case.
    Will the Lib Dems get desperate enough to try to side line or remove her in the next days? This is my equivalent of counting corners at football matches because the game is so dull.
    Whatever your political persuasion, they have all seen much better frontbench teams (Old Nat will correct me on the SNP).
    Polling is still big, it was the politicians who got small.

  30. (Clean) Humour is always welcome in elections – https://twitter.com/milneorchid/status/1200109185792385025

  31. @OldNat

    “OLDNAT

    RAF

    The EC forecast for Scotland is based on “opinion polls from 19 Nov 2019 to 25 Nov 2019, sampling 2,055 people.” ie the Panelbase and Ipsos-MORI polls.

    For clarity that means they are averaging 2 somewhat different data sets

    Panelbase – SNP 40% : SCon 28% : SLab 20% SLD 11%
    Ipsos-MORI – SNP 44% : SCon 26% : SLab 16% SLD 11%

    I’d be hesitant about making accurate seat calculations from that limited data.”

    That’s a fair point. The Scottish element of the poll is not likely to be reliable at this stage.

  32. @OLDNAT

    I was thinking about this earlier – as well as the two recent Scottish polls having noticeably different SLAB results, am I right in remembering that the YouGov cross-breaks you track were showing a different result for them again, something more like 12%? Or am I mixing up the parties on that?

  33. @RAF

    Thanks. That is the main issue with headline figures. Error bars people.

    With BXP out I normally take 1-2% off CON and transfer it to LAB. Certainly makes traditional polling a whole lot closer than MRP. Andrew Neil correctly pointed out at lunch to YouGov the model is only as accurate as the underlying algorithm.

    When people say that MRP correctly predicted a hung parliament they are only half right. Certainly it did predict a hung parliament but they were wrong in the number of CON seats. Their prediction had TM out of number 10.

  34. “If Labour get really thumped, then I hope that the decent Labour posters on this site can put it down to the anti-Semitic infiltrators.”

    Why do people obsess over this as a relevant factor in VI? It makes not a jott of difference to how people are going to vote.

  35. Also the MRP may end up being wrong because it was created, if you are a LD voter in a LAB-CON switch and you see the result, are you seriously going to waste your vote?

    That is the big question on polling though to what extent does polling reflect opinion? To what extent does it change opinion?

  36. The ups and downs of elections. Council by-election Results tonight:

    Sheringham North (North Norfolk) result: LDEM: 48.4% (-15.0) CON: 43.0% (+17.8) LAB: 8.6% (-2.8)

    Trowbridge Lambrok (Wiltshire) result: LDEM: 57.8% (+25.6) CON: 42.2% (-3.4)

    Try and extrapolate something meaningful from that!

  37. On BBC QT tonight the issue of the NHS did not seem good for Mr Johnson:

    – much derision of their misleading maths on “extra” nurses
    – a very eloquent nurse explaining the problems of the NHS.

  38. EOR

    I make no great claims for the YG crossbreak average that I calculate, but SLab come out lower in that than in the Full Scottish ones above.

    Graham loves the Panelbase one, hates my YG one, and hasn’t commented on the MORI one!

    Who knows? (though the YG MRP poll might be the best guide to the seat count that we have)

  39. Reason that the polls might not be accurate.

    I live in a marginal Watford that has been won by the Conservatives since 2010. Intrestlingly Watford has always voted for an MP who ends up in the government.

    On face value Watford looks like an easy Conservative hold taking into account all of the recent polls.

    However when you look at some pretty unique circumstances there is a way for the seat to be lost.

    The last popular MP Richard Harrington is not running. He has been replaced by an unknown The Labour candidate has been all over the press and social media since 2017.

    Now Labour had a massive swing in 2017 to get within 2000 votes of winning. Initially once the Brexit Party stood down i felt labour and the liberals would cancel each other out. However if you imagine there are usually 20 loyal conservative canvassers in the town. 6 of them are hard core remainers and have refused to get involved. They would never vote Labour but they have decided not to vote at all.

    Furthermore with a majority of 2000 around 3500 new voters registered in the town. 65 percent of them are under 35. The word coming from the door knocking has been the Waspi issue has really hit with the target demographic. Also the town has a large liberal vote, the liberals have had a tactical voted Mayor in office ever since the position was created. But unlike 2017 a large chunk of the Liberal vote are openly stating they will vote for Labour as the only plausible route to remain.

    I am thinking could the vulnerable Labour seats in the midlsnds and North be offset by unexpected gains in the south. Not sure how well the polls are tracking turnout and if they have the youth wrong the margins are very different.

    Will be ceacking open the popcorn for the exit poll as I dont think this is as clear cut as it seems.

  40. @OLDNAT

    To be fair you always caveat your cross-break analysis well. It was genuinely a question about whether I was remembering the number correctly, and not wanting to wade through potentially dozens of pages of comments to the last time you’d updated it, so thank you for clarifying :-)

    Much like with the very limited supply of Welsh polling, it’s presumably hard to know whether what we do get is tracking significant change or is bouncing with random variation around a more consistent underlying picture. Or is going to be amusingly wrong regardless!

  41. MOOSEPOLL

    Thanks – I like hearing these local descriptions of specific constituencies.

  42. Also regardless of whether the Waspi policy is right or wrong I think the Waspi women get a bit annoyed at being told they’re not affordable. As someone who hears all kinds of reasons why University Pension needs to be cut, I can relate to that annoyance.

  43. @RAF

    “Very good, Carfrew. Very good.

    Speaking of the climate change debate, did anyone mention Thorium?”

    ========

    Well I haven’t seen the debate yet, but I’d be surprised if it got mentioned. My concerns do not tend to get much airtime. (But on the plus side I t’s Black Friday…)

  44. @NORBOLD

    Try and extrapolate something meaningful from that!

    if you look at the 95% confidence on the Yougov results you get a a range that matches those results

    I think there is 130 seats which are marginal where the success or failure will not match any view of uniform swing. each will have a different flavour and thus would be much harder to predict moreover the success or failure will be at the margins.

    I keep point to trump winning MI PA and I forgot which other state by less than 80K votes

    @JONATHAN STUART-BROWN

    I thought a few weeks ago that Jo would be the fresh face who would get a 2010 Nick Clegg VI boost AND corner the hardcore Remain support.
    It seems the more Jo has been on TV, the more people have disliked her. The Lib Dems are tied to her.

    several people said that she would flop and in all fairness she was not really doing well and she strategically had to do what she did but it was kind of if you do that there is no way back

    Remain support seems to have taken November off. Maybe they were overdue a holiday after relentless intense campaigning since June 23rd 2016. If they have taken December off as well, then the Tories should do very well.

    In all fairness the difference is remain is split amongst three main parties in parliament and Leave is not so it looks bad but in truth it is as you were what has surprised me is that Getting Brexit Done has not really reasonated. As you have said there is a weariness

    If Labour get really thumped, then I hope that the decent Labour posters on this site can put it down to the anti-Semitic infiltrators. Hopefully they can expel them all and relaunch in the locals next year. And put up a really credible alternative government next time.
    Anti-Semitism can land anywhere at anytime. The Conservatives, Brexit and Lib Dem could be next. They should not feel smug nor superior. Prior to 2016 I could not think of Labour and anti-Semitism in the same sentence.

    It ha been pointed out by Baroess Wasari about the Tories problems with islamophobia as some said. whist one would argue that the words anti semitism would not have been thought to be uttered with Labour. You would not have said the same about racism and tories. A poll showed that the over half the membership would not want a muslim as PM as an example. It is never seen as a issue. There is no debate about it it is seen as normal.

    Corbyn could have won this. If he had two decent weeks, then he still could. At least the biggest party.

    That in my view was never on the cards, i think there are a majority of LoC votes, but I don’t think that translates into left of centre seats

    remember there are essentially 650 different elections going on. it is not one election not this time. I believe we will see wildly different results

    I am still of the view that Johnson has a 50% chanceof having a overal majority but I suspect the weirdness of this election is that whilst I expected the Tories to get just under May’s figures 41% I expect Labour not get to around 37% and LD to get around 12% I don’t think it gets enough seats for anyone but Tories to form a government. Bubt in my view that brexit is going to happen anyway

    @TURK

    everyone said they’d respect the referendum result, I would have thought that everyone who wanted to would have said we would implement the referendum result

    respecting the result does not mean you implementing it which is why I personally would have wanted it to legally binding. However if it was legally binding then we would have been in court over allegations of leave campaign and irregularities. The courts actually pointed to the fact that in legal terms the referendum had no weight since it was advisory.

    I know I do the whole legalese but respect and implement mean different things

    @PROFHOWARD

    The problem the Tories have is that they basically argued that we need austerity and now they say we don’t. The arguments are arbitrary in terms of what and why and that is why the argument about magic money trees now does not cut it.

    In many quarter you will get well we still won’t get our library or sure start centre back so say austerity is over is kind of taking the pi55 as I presume the nurse (or teacher or Local government accountant) will tell you

  45. Mosspoll: thanks for your description of the local trend in Watford. The problem with your analysis is the Tories are polling above 40 percent this means for labour to come near winning Watford they have to be behind less than one percent. According to national polls that has not happened so the conclusion is easy win for the Tories in Watford .

  46. Agreed the conservatives took 45.6 percent locally last time. However my concern with the polls is how accuratly can they track unique tactical voting and the impact of a higher than expected youth turnout.

  47. John33
    “But asking people for a five year mandate is quite different than the one to deliver Brexit. ”

    Not really in this case. The Tories are the only potential party of government who will at least try to deliver Brexit, and for many voters this is the overriding consideration.
    ————————————-
    Rosie and Daisie
    “Hard to believe that we are the nation of Shakespeare and Dickens.”

    We’re not any more. :(
    ——————————–
    PTRP
    “A poll showed that the over half the membership would not want a muslim as PM as an example. It is never seen as a issue. There is no debate about it it is seen as normal.”

    Doesn’t the PM have to advise HM about the appointment of The Archbishop of Canterbury? I can see why this might be difficult for a PM who was not of that church. I always supposed (perhaps erroneously) that that why Blair tried to conceal his Catholicism while in power.

    “I know I do the whole legalese but respect and implement mean different things”

    i.e. they used weasel words to deceive the electorate. Quelle surprise!

  48. @oldnat

    “It’s also the case that, in the UK, there are only 3 polities [1] in which the leaders can be quizzed on which climate emergency policies they have actually presided over.

    One was there, one represented by a block of ice – did Corbyn outline what the Welsh Government had done, and link it to his ideas on applying them to England?”

    ———-

    Well I haven’t seen the debate yet, I quite like to read reaction here first, so I’m not sure what Corbyn did or did that say, but he probably didn’t discuss whether a Thorium reactor should operate in the fast or the thermal spectrum, or whether we should be using hydrogen to store surplus energy from renewables, important stuff like that. Hopefully Nicola mentioned the potential for wave and tidal.

  49. @Pete B

    “I can see why this might be difficult for a PM who was not of that church.”

    So the PM has to be English now, or at the very least, convert to the Church of England (Boris was born Catholic and converted to CoE) ?

    Gordon brown was CoS, and the son of a Minister, and yet apparently kept his religion very private. Blair, as you said tried to keep his religion private.

    It sounds to me that religion in politics is, like the poppy thing every year, a badge of a clique, rather than a belief system, and can be weaponised as and when the clique see fit.

    Maybe there’s grounds to officially separate religion from the state, in the modern world. It can’t hurt either body to be apart from the other when muds starts flying.

  50. Just logged on to facebook and a few non political friends are complaining about dirty campaigning by libdems in cambridge, apparently chuka has sent out a letter saying labour is anti semitic and he left labour because of it. Tories apparently are somehow sending their ads out with the postal votes, I have no idea how they manage that. This is the dirtiest election campaign ever, but then the stakes are high so not surprising

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