There were five GB voting intention polls in the Sunday papers (and the latest Panelbase poll appeared on Friday).

BMG/Independent – CON 41%(+4), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 18%(+2), BREX 3%(-6). Fieldwork Tuesday to Thursday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 42%(nc), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 16%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork Thursday and Friday, with changes from mid-week. (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 47%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 12%(-2), BREX 3%(-3). Fieldwork Wednesday to Friday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 43%(-2), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 16%(+5), BREX 3%(-3). Fieldwork Thursday and Friday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
SavantaComres/Sunday Express – CON 42%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 5%(nc). Fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday, with changes from midweek. (tabs)
Panelbase – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 14%(-1), BREX 3%(-2). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes from last week.

Five of these were conducted wholly after the first leaders debate and two of them were conducted after the Labour manifesto had been released, so it is the first opportunity to see any impact from these events.

There does not appear to be any consistent trend or impact from the debate. The four point increase for the Conservatives in the BMG poll is likely the pact of starting to prompt by candidate names and, therefore, removing the Brexit party opinion for half of respondents (so far as I can tell, all polling companies apart from ComRes are now doing this). Setting BMG aide, the average change across the polls is no change for the Tories, less than a point change for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Neither of the two polls that were conducted wholly after the publication of the Labour manifesto (YouGov and Deltapoll) show any sign of a manifesto boost for Labour. Both the debate and the manifesto launch were events that could potentially have had an impact on the race… thus far, neither appears to have done so.

Moving on, there has been an almost complete absence of Scottish polling during the campaign so far. While ITV Wales have commissioned specific Welsh polling and Queen Mary University of London have done a specific London poll, Scottish polls have been completely absent. The Sunday Times today have a Scottish poll from Panelbase, with topline figures (which changes from the general election) of CON 28%(-1), LAB 20%(-7), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 40%(+3), BREX 1%(-4). On these figures the Conservatives would hold all but one of their current Scottish seats – rather a turnaround from assumptions at the start of the campaign that the Tories were set to lose many of their Scottish seats and would need to make up the deficit elsewhere.

1,690 Responses to “Sunday polls (and the first Scottish poll of the campaign)”

1 31 32 33 34
  1. Prof – Maybe you’re right. They never expected Gove would get a run. He was just the fig-leaf excuse. But I do sense that Boris has lost a lot of skin for not much gain. The undecideds out there might care about climate change.

  2. Usual Partisan opinions being expressed here about Johnson no shows and C4

    The fact is that the other leaders signed up on the basis that it was a debate of party leaders.

    Con signed up on that understanding.

    C4 asked the other leaders if they were happy to go ahead with Gove instead of Johnson and they said no, the debate was agreed as party leaders.

    Con should have fulfilled their contractual commitment and they didn’t.

    Questions are:

    1. If you agree to do something and others agree on the basis that you are taking part too. Is it OK to then back down on your promise.

    2. Were C4 right to go ahead with the programme after Johnson and Farage were no shows or should they have just shown the test card for 60 mins.

    3. Should Gove have been allowed to stand in as long as he issued a public apology for Johnson’s no show and explain what he had more important to do this evening than put forward his party’s stance on one of the most important issues of our time.

    Please supply your partisan opinions now…….

  3. Trev

    “So in summary. Everyone on UKPR that h8tes the Tories, still h8tes the Tories and everything to do (or in this case didn’t do)”

    Surely anyone with half an ounce of human decency would hate the Tories.


  4. @ Statgeek

    Don’t you think advertising revenue has something to do with this? Channel 4 probably got all their sponsors onboard with promises of a full house at the debate and ended up with egg on face.

    It sounds like the same old climate issues already being debated in this campaign have just been discussed again. What a waste of time.

  5. Bantams

    “What a waste of time”

    It wont be a waste of time when most of Tory little england is either a dustbowl or underwater.


    I’m not convinced you really believe any of what you have said with regard to this issue. But please yourself.

  7. R&D

    :-) Good point – though one might be forgiven for thinking that, in Westminster, only one year olds get elected!

  8. I suspect that Labour will be very happy with the timing of the anti-semitism accusations, almost three weeks before the polls. The Chief Rabbi really got a bit antsy. This is the sort of brick you throw through the window during the last week of a campaign. Quite amateurish, really. Labour should now have a fair bit of clear air, unless the Tories (and their press) have another brick in hiding.

  9. Adam,
    “C4’s decision not to accept him as a stand-in, given his previous role, looks flimsy at best and, whilst I’m a Con voter,”

    Ch4 stated at the end of the program the other party leaders refused to take part if anyone other than a party leader was included.

    Ch4 said they would still be happy for him to come on and answer questions on climate issues.

    Ch4 were right to proceed without BJ: Johnson has been trying to game his TV appearance so as to obtain unfair advantage. Sending a stand-in does not allow the public to judge him.

    “broadcasters responsibility is to be impartial to parties”
    which they accomplish by preventing one leader trying to game the system by skipping out on events he finds challenging.

    “The climate debate is quite good stuff actually.”

    Its a lot better than Neil’s harangue.

    “From the expenses scandal to over 3yrs of procrastination over brexit, ”

    Note, it is the supposedly brexit supporting tories who have been procrastinating over brexit.

  10. Freddo

    “This is the sort of brick you throw through the window during the last week of a campaign. Quite amateurish, really.”

    Or very professional?

    We don’t know who unearthed all the allegations of anti-Semitism against candidates from a range of parties.

    It’s reasonable to ask “who benefits”?

  11. @ TonyBTG @John33

    I want to see climate issues debated furiously but by people who really know their brief but none of the mainstream party people present at the debate tonight have much knowledge of the subject.

  12. On Johnson’s no show on Channel 4 tonight, and likely avoidance of Andrew Neil, I’m going to surprise many of you here. Yes it’s deeply cynical, and maybe some deception and skullduggery has been involved too, but it’s very sensible politics from Team Johnson in terms of where he is in the election race and the proximity to polling day. He’s basically doing what any Leader/PM in the lead would do; he’s dialling down and negating all risk factors and I don’t blame him. He may well have hoodwinked Corbyn about the Neil debate, but politics, especially at election time, is a very dirty game. It’s obvious Team Johnson are running a much tighter Tory ship than May did in 2017. They’ve learned lessons.

    And here’s surprise number two, although it saddens me deeply. If this MRP model is right and the Tories win a 68 seat overall majority, their biggest for 32 years, then we can’t be churlish on the Left and deny that it won’t have been an enormous political triumph for both Johnson and the Tory Party. A quite extraordinary personal and political achievement.

    I think it will be a disaster for the country, but if he pulls it off, then we have to hand it to him.

    And accept too, it will have been yet another dismal Labour defeat. Some real introspection and soul searching on the Left. Yet again, but this time we need to get the analysis righ.

    Surprise number 3. I still haven’t given up; not by a long chalk. 14 days to Stop Brexit and Stop Johnson and I’ll be using every one of those to attempt to do so. I won’t be alone too.

  13. What can Andrew Neil use to no-show Johnson? Plank of wood, a kipper?

  14. Bantams

    I only watched a bit of the Climate debate, before I went for dinner, so I can’t really comment on the knowledge of the leaders tonight.

    However, I’m interested in your “none of the mainstream party people” comment.

    Which parties do you consider “mainstream”, as opposed to those sculling in the backwaters?

  15. @Batty

    I feel the same. A sense of dread, but not yet hopelessness. I’ll be out leafletting tomorrow and Sunday.


    The W
    Wizard of Oz’s Cowardly Lion, maybe? (though the Tin Man would serve just as well).

  16. @ John Smith

    Jon Culshaw?

  17. Bantams

    So do I. And I want the issue to be taken seriously. On this, I think we agree and that is good.

    But tonight’s no show sends the wrong type of signals on the issue and for that I think it was bad.

    @John smith

    Simple, a chicken.

  18. @ Old Nat

    Don’t worry, Nicola is very much mainstream in my eyes :)

    My view is party leaders can’t be expected to have deep knowledge of everything going on in the world, we have to cut them some slack especially at election time. They all look knackered already!

  19. Bantams

    That wasn’t my question. You may prefer Johnson to others, but there’s no need to copy his evasion technique! :-)

  20. @CROSSBAT11
    It’s no surprise that, yet again, when the public get to see Jeremy Corbyn for themselves and in their own words (or at least to a greater extent than usual) at a GE we see a rapid closing of personal ratings re. Johnson vs Corbyn. I cannot congratulate a party for “extraordinary success” when it has had the bulk of the country’s media throwing mud at its principal opponent for year after year, with only the odd shot back allowed in return. Mudslinging and lies works – it changes people’s minds. And it sets the parameters of debate right where they want them. That’s why the Times, Mail, Sun, Telegraph, etc do it and sadly this election the BBC have also seemingly become little more than an echo chamber for the news agenda of the aforementioned right wing news sources. Their will be nothing extraordinary about a Conservative win in this context. If Labour can prevent the formation of a majority Conservative government in these times, that will be extraordinary.

  21. Is Bantams really a Lib Demmer? I think not.

    Anyway what is happening with Johnson and his party is setting a precedent for future election campaigns.
    If Labour are ahead in the polls they will doubtless be able to cite Johnson and do as they so please. It’s a shame because this is going to impact upon meaningful debate going forward and goodness knows these politicians need to be scrutinised,

  22. Danny

    Whilst it’s true that some elements of the Tory party have delayed brexit it’s also true to say all the opposition parties aided by Bercow have also contributed to delaying brexit.
    It would be very naive to think the public don’t understand that.

  23. So if Johnson is really refusing to talk to Brillo, should Swinson do the same? Difficult for Tories to attack her in that case.

  24. I don’t really understand the Johnson tactic anyway. It’s not like the environment is a burning issue for most Conservative voters. He just had to go on and bumble his way through a few soundbites as he usually does, make a couple of quips and bingo “Boris being Boris, isn’t he fun”. I find him an uninspired speaker and debater but I consider him competent enough not to say something stupid or inflammatory in a many sided, fairly technical debate. Surely far more harm to be seen hiding from the electorate with this and, seemingly, the Andrew Neil farce. Few watch the debates but many pick up the “takeaways” and Johnson hiding away from the electorate is certainly one of those takeaways now. His character is already a weak point for him and I think one of the factors that *could* see a very high turnout among leaning Labour voters.

  25. A few months ago on here there was a discussion about Labour in danger of becoming an “authoritarian” government.

    Tonight simply because Johnson refused an invite to a leaders debate and was empty chaired the Tories are threatening to review C4’s broadcasting remit.

    I wonder if @ Colin and @ Chris Lane among others would want to reconsider where the bigger danger comes from?

  26. Shevii – democratic leftist parties usually are far more supportive of political institutions than conservative parties. They realise that the institutions are the only protection they have. The conservatives, on the other hand, think the institutions are just there to serve their interests.

  27. “David – broadcasters responsibility is to treat parties equally. Not ‘treat parties equally provided that the leaders only are available to speak’ Its as simple as that. Anyway, lets see what Ofcom says. My guess is that they’ll back Con given the precedent of Rudd last time and responsibility relating to ‘parties’”


    Well it seems rather unfair to the other parties if whenever it gets tricky, Cons can just send someone other than the leader instead who is better able to answer the questions.

    On the other hand, if this takes off, it could be really quite useful. Like, if you fancy being the Chief Exec of a hospital for instance, but don’t happen to know much about the health service, just send someone who does know to do the interview in your place.

    If anyone complains, just say that you’re not being treated equally. That it surely doesn’t matter if you can’t answer the questions as long as someone can. In fact, it’s possible one could envisage having someone else stand in for Johnson in more and more scenarios. (And not necessarily just Johnson)…

  28. Bantams

    I found the debate interesting because it showed me that some of the leaders actually did know the topic quite well. I found one candidate a bit superficial and another surprised me in how much they knew. I think I got a good feel for how much they’re into climate change issues.

  29. SHEVII

    Its pathetic-I feared he would chicken out.

    Not a good look at all-if it costs him votes that is as it should be.

  30. To clarify my last sentence – many Conservatives love him, hence his very decent (if declining) overall popularity ratings. But outside of that core Conservative demographic there are A LOT of people who seriously dislike the man (ever been over on Mumsnet!? – he’s virtually public enemy number one there and negative posts outnumber positive about 10to1. I was surprised by the level of vitriol he gets from such a wide demographic). Hate, or at least strong personal dislike, is a strong motivating factor for many people and I suspect Labour turnout could again exceed pollsters expectations, but for different reason than last time.

  31. @CROSSBAT11

    Well, what a difference a week makes. In today’s IFS assessment of the three main party’s manifestos, whilst still sceptical about the ability of any of them to fund the spending

    I think that labour will not be able to meet their spending pledges even if they had a n OM and a full run at it to try and spend that much money will cause a huge level of waste in my view but I reckon they will be able to do say railways easily

    Public spending would be at a lower share of national income than Germany and many other European countries.

    What is scary is that we are so used to the sh1te we have been fed since 2010 people have basically forgotten what it was like not even 18 months ago.

    I personally believe we will go through more pain but it is good to see that whilst I think that labour manifesto does not actually solve the UK cost of living crisis it does attempt to solve what i would say is the spending crisis

    I think that in 3 year times when we are into a Tory administration people will be saying well Corbyn was barmy but actually that si what we need. I had one person I know who said in hindsight he would have voted for Milliband since he felt that looking back on it his policies were better and indeed there was elements of his ‘marxist’ policies in the tory abortion of a manifesto

  32. Dandelionwine –
    Well said.
    One possibility is that the focus group research on Boris shows that his popularity is going through the floor with the non-Tory masses. Sometimes, a comedian can stay on the stage for too long. I’m going to be fascinated to see if the damage control (Brexit or bust) strategy works. Will he flop over the line?
    I always resist the temptation, in these situations, to think that the political “professionals” really know what they’re doing.

  33. Shevii

    The Tories have already shackled the BBC through their changes to its Charter and governance. Why wouldn’t they do that to any other broadcaster that they saw as a potential threat?

    Gleichschaltung is not a concept unique to one regime in one state.

    Nixon threatened to withdraw the broadcast licences of the Washington Post, and there are many other examples.

  34. @ Mike Pearce

    I’m not a big fan of Boris but he’s my ticket to Brexit. While I’m not defending either of his absences (so far), as Crossbat11 says, I understand why it’s been done.

    You’re right about future understandings on scrutinisation of politicians, it’s vital. Getting a consensus is the problem, the Tories hate Channel 4 and Labour hate the BBC.

  35. bantams,
    ” you can’t expect the leaders to know this subject intimately”

    why not? This isnt really an in depth debate.

    “which is why we have Government departments delegated to do this”

    So lets get the civil servants along , shall we, to tell us what they think about Brexit?

    “The Tories have obviously decided they don’t want a big mandate,”

    I keep saying that. Infact i keep saying they dont want any mandae at all, and this is the seconf time they have tried to get out of power. The only people who have stopped brexit happening are tory MPs.

    “So in summary….”
    look..Boris is afraid to appear because he thinks his standing will be worse if he does than if he doesnt. he believes he will look inferior to the other leaders, which in view of how he descibes JC is quite saying something.


    I think Johnson does poorly with women voters and those who are educated past GCSE.

  37. @ Old Nat

    I don’t consider PC or the Greens to be in my interpretation of mainstream but I would have done this debate very differently.

  38. @Bantams
    Labour hate the BBC and yet Corbyn was there on the BBC, while the Tories are still trying to wriggle out of it. The problem, put simply, is the Conservatives being so used to a daily feed of positive stories from a heavily leaning right wing TV/Print media that they find the prospect of unedited ‘straight from the horses-mouths’ debates very unappealing. The problem isn’t consensus vs party political interests, it’s democratic openness/transparency vs the Tory Party.

  39. “Tonight simply because Johnson refused an invite to a leaders debate and was empty chaired the Tories are threatening to review C4’s broadcasting remit.”


    Well it might not be that bad if the Tories decline to do it themselves and they send one of the other parties to review it instead. (Or maybe outsource it to the Ruskies)

  40. @adam

    “It doesnt change the point though that the Tories offered up Gove and broadcasters responsibility is to be impartial to parties – no reference to the personalities. It does seem like a blatant breach by them.”

    So you will agree that the Johnson/Corbyn head to head debate was irresponsibly partial?

  41. @ Colin

    Thanks although my key point was about threatening broadcasters rather than right/wrong to turn up. I totally understand Crossbat’s assertion that take the flack from not appearing is the better option than actually appearing and being savaged but it is the threatening in order to get your own way that is concerning.

    I watched a fair bit of it and thought the debate was well mannered and not what I was fearing- that it would be political point scoring. It was an opportunity to highlight Green issues and I think they all managed that, although I thought the Plaid leader was less than convincing because of the farming interests. On Green issues at least I think a “progressive alliance” is possible.

  42. @ Danny

    Because they’re all on the go from dawn until late, this is far too important a subject for just an hour’s general discussion.

  43. Bantams

    “Labour hate the BBC”

    A significant oversimplification, to say the least.

    In Scotland, SLab used to love the BBC – partly because the former news bosses consulted them directly about the treatment of news output. When the Tory controlled corporation replaced the senior team in Glasgow, is when they fell out of love with it.

    The SNP disliked both the former and current versions of the politically controlled BBC – though, they might be less concerned about an SBC that they controlled!

    ‘Twas ever thus, and the real challenge is how to stop the bastards in power from controlling the mechanisms of power that keep the bastards in control!

  44. The arrogance and entitlement of the Conservative Party astounds me sometimes. If they dropped that arrogance and entitlement they’d probably have another million or so “potential” voters – but I suspect that’s a bit like asking Father Christmas to consider shaving off his beard!

  45. Boy, Bantam, you’re investing a hell of a lot in a man who is just your ticket to Brexit.

  46. Everybody on UKPR is heavily invested in somebody in this election, not always somebody they would want to necessarily share a pint or glass of wine with!

  47. One problem with Mr Johnson is the lack of credibility in terms of what he says, and the transparent way in which he tries to deflect.

    See for example this interview with a junior BBC interviewer who seems very brave. Listen to the quality of Mr Johnson’s answers in terms of evasiveness.

  48. Just watching the climate debate now from recording.

    They all seem on top of the detail.

    I can see why Boris the Bottler bottled.

    He doesn’t do detail and he would have been useless at this.

    The melting sculpture made more sense than he would.

  49. test: I think my posts on here are being vetted as there seems to be a long delay or them not appearing at all…! I havent said any offence before, and far less partisan that some on here!!!

1 31 32 33 34