There were five GB voting intention polls in the Sunday papers (and the latest Panelbase poll appeared on Friday).

BMG/Independent – CON 41%(+4), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 18%(+2), BREX 3%(-6). Fieldwork Tuesday to Thursday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 42%(nc), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 16%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork Thursday and Friday, with changes from mid-week. (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 47%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 12%(-2), BREX 3%(-3). Fieldwork Wednesday to Friday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 43%(-2), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 16%(+5), BREX 3%(-3). Fieldwork Thursday and Friday, with changes from last week. (tabs)
SavantaComres/Sunday Express – CON 42%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 5%(nc). Fieldwork Wednesday and Thursday, with changes from midweek. (tabs)
Panelbase – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 14%(-1), BREX 3%(-2). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday, changes from last week.

Five of these were conducted wholly after the first leaders debate and two of them were conducted after the Labour manifesto had been released, so it is the first opportunity to see any impact from these events.

There does not appear to be any consistent trend or impact from the debate. The four point increase for the Conservatives in the BMG poll is likely the pact of starting to prompt by candidate names and, therefore, removing the Brexit party opinion for half of respondents (so far as I can tell, all polling companies apart from ComRes are now doing this). Setting BMG aide, the average change across the polls is no change for the Tories, less than a point change for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Neither of the two polls that were conducted wholly after the publication of the Labour manifesto (YouGov and Deltapoll) show any sign of a manifesto boost for Labour. Both the debate and the manifesto launch were events that could potentially have had an impact on the race… thus far, neither appears to have done so.

Moving on, there has been an almost complete absence of Scottish polling during the campaign so far. While ITV Wales have commissioned specific Welsh polling and Queen Mary University of London have done a specific London poll, Scottish polls have been completely absent. The Sunday Times today have a Scottish poll from Panelbase, with topline figures (which changes from the general election) of CON 28%(-1), LAB 20%(-7), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 40%(+3), BREX 1%(-4). On these figures the Conservatives would hold all but one of their current Scottish seats – rather a turnaround from assumptions at the start of the campaign that the Tories were set to lose many of their Scottish seats and would need to make up the deficit elsewhere.


1,690 Responses to “Sunday polls (and the first Scottish poll of the campaign)”

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  1. Noswaith Dda from the glorious Ynys Mon/Isle of Anglesey.

    This is a micro-cosm where its Parliamentary, Senedd, and local authority boundary are identical and where there are only 50,000 voters. It is (by tier) Labour, Plaid, Independent. The voters are very aware of who does what at which level and as a result have no qualms switching to who they perceive will do the best for the island (not Wales and certainly not the UK). They also do not tend to favour ‘outsider’ candidates nor candidates who do not speak Cymraeg. It voted to Leave in 2016.

    At parliamentary level labour – in the shape of Albert Owen (‘Our Albert’), have held the seat since 2001 when they took it from Plaid (long story, all to do with local issues) and Plaid have long since held ambition to re-take the seat.

    It was thought that the Plaid-Libdem-Green alliance would see this seat go to Plaid – but it isn’t turning out that way on the ground, here or elsewhere in Wales.

    Part of the ‘alliance’ was that each of the other two parties activists would help the one that was standing. That isn’t happening, probably because the local Lib dem and Green vote tends to be middle class English and pro-Union and is not particulalrlyminded to help a party that wants independence. Knowing a couple of the plaid councillors and some Plaid party activists(everyone knows everyone round here) I can say they are rapidly becoming very disillusioned, blaming their party leadership for ‘trusting’ two – what they view as – English parties and think – from believing they would get 8 seats a few weeks ago, toknow thinking they’ll be lucky if they have 4 andthat they have been royally set-up by the Lib Dems and have walked into an ambush withtheir eyes wide open.

    This seat – which at the start of this was touted as likely to go Plaid, is actually now a straight fight between Labour and the Tories with Plaid a distant third. The Labour Leave vote has gone Tory and there are tory posters in windows in areas that have never voted tory. Because they want Brexit and because the Labour administration in Cardiff is viewed as a disaster and they have a genuine fear that a Corbyn government willl be as inept as Mark Drakefords in Cardiff. The UKIP/brexit Party support has also gone Tory

    Labour locally appears to have taken the bulk of the Lib Dem & Green vote with plaid making little headway.

    A question for JONESINBANGOR. I hear Hywel Williams (Plaid MP for neighbouring Arfon) is under intense pressure for the same reason – the LibDem/Green vtegoing Labour, hence why Plaid are sending Leanne wood there.

    As to my allegiances? I always vote Plaid at Senedd and council level, but Labour at UK level. This election I will be voting Tory.

  2. @Alec

    “In this scenario, the IFS calculates that the deficit and debt will be higher under Johnson than under Corbyn.

    So….if you are a fan of fiscal rectitude, you really are so much better off voting Labour this time around”…

    True enough. The conservatives apparent strengths are actually their weaknesses. According to Baroness Warsi, attacks on Muslim women went up by around 400 percent in the week following Johnson’s letterbox article. She said she did not think that he was Islamophobic but that he lived in a ‘cocoon of privilege’ where he thought that he could say anything with impunity. Muslims within the conservative party were afraid to speak out about this for fear of ending their political careers. So the anti-racist vote should be against him.

    People who want Brexit done should realise from the NHS papers that far from getting it done and dusted we are into endless negotiations arising from its sequelae.

    Those who want an end to austerity should realise that his proposals ‘bake in austerity.

    And paradoxically both those who want a hard Brexit and those who want a soft one should fear Boris, although at least one of these groups will end up being relieved. His strategy is to keep his hardline supporters on line by threatening no deal until the last moment and then give the EU everything it wants. We are basically up the creek without a paddle eiher way but at the moment we have no idea how it will go.

    And yet despite all this, people go on believing he is the man for them. Bring on Eddie Mair as someone said above.

  3. @Charles

    I am not sure you are wise to build your hopes on it though

    Don’t worry I’m not – I think the hill is too steep a climb in 14 days.

  4. Oldnat

    I think it’s almost impossible for parties of any political stripe to find candidates that have never said anything that could be considered anti semitic. It’s so deeply ingrained in our culture and we are only just beginning to be aware of it. It’s a bit like the Robertson gollywog, very few people were aware that it was racist until there was a campaign about it and then suddenly everyone could see it was racist. But it took time and at first people were very resistant.

    Of course I dont know the specifics of these cases and I guess that there will be various interpretations of the remarks, ie, taken out of context, misconstrued or misunderstood.

  5. Neil

    I know that youth turnout is going to break records, but if the other turnout is low will we see youth turnout higher than some other age groups? That would be revolutionary, but I doubt it will happen

  6. Redrich

    “I think the hill is too steep a climb in 14 days.”

    But is it?

    All the polls point to a large proportion, around 20%, of dont knows.

    Also, a lot of the marginals are on a knife edge. It wont take too many Labour lifelong voters to switch back at last minute to change these results.

    So three things at play:

    1. How will some of the don’t knows break in the final days – or even on the day?

    2. Small but significant proportion of Labour faithful bottling and coming back to the fold on the day.

    3. A further tightening of the polls by 2 or 3% – will be interesting to see how the YouGov MRP moves when recent polls are factored in that show smaller Tory leads

    Any one of these going Labour’s way puts the majority in doubt.

    Any two and its really in doubt.

    If all three happen then Johnson is toast as I dont think the Tories will tolerate him any longer than they need to if he doesn’t win a majority.

    All to play for with 2 weeks to go.

  7. @ PROFHOWARD
    “”BT SAYS…
    Ynys Mon has looked ripe for going Tory for some time.”

    BT SHARES made it go non-Tory for quite some time.”

    Very good!

  8. CHARLES ALEX
    What the IFS have said about the costs of Brexit will have no traction at all with leave supporters. They will just regard it as an extension of project fear. Remain Conservatives are the group who could be swayed if there was a credible alternative, ….but there isn’t.
    I’m taking my bat and ball home. Definitely not voting. If there was a credible remain party now, things might be different.

  9. Princess

    I only know what I see on mainstream or social media (like everyone else).

    The allegation re Hanvey (according to BBC) is that he “shared a post on Facebook in 2016 which included an image of billionaire George Soros as a puppet master controlling world leaders”.

    My point is more that parties should know that anything said, liked, or shared on social media in the past by a candidate, will be found by those searching for any dirt they can find.

    Whether that is a good climate for politics is another matter, but it is the reality.

    Consequently, they need to trawl through every candidate’s social media prior to a nomination being submitted (as if they were a political opponent) : find anything that can be used against them : decide if it has any validity and, if not, contextualise it and get it into the public domain first.

    My fear is that the current process could result in the only candidates available in any party, could be those who have never said or done anything at all and have no views on anything!

  10. @NeilJ/Turk

    I too think, for many of the reasons you both allude to, that there will a poorish turnout on December 12th. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is about 65% or so although, in the context of elections for the last 25 years, that’s about par for the course. I’m always surprised that this trend goes unreported in the way that it does and we’re semi-sleepwalking into a position where it might be that almost half of the adult population of the country aren’t participating in elections. That’s crudely the figure if you add together the people who abstain and those not registered.

    We haven’t had a turnout of over 70% at a General Election since 1997. 2017 was, by recent standards high, but historically, pretty dismal. This one might be a slight reduction on what have now become consistently poor turnouts for about a quarter of a century.

  11. Tory complaint to Ofcom about the Channel 4 charade this evening reads in a pretty compelling fashion – key point being the necessity of channels to treat ‘parties’ fairly, rather than referring to leaders:

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/28/read-full-tories-channel-4-bias-complaint-ofcom/

    That said, I’m not sure what the remedy is – public apology perhaps…difficult to see what more they could do.

    The complaint is made stronger by the fact that the Tories offered up Gove. He splits opinion but is a good debater and quite witty – perhaps thats why C4 didnt want him?!? He also used to be Environment Sec too, so pretty relevant and would have added to the debate.

    C4’s decision not to accept him as a stand-in, given his previous role, looks flimsy at best and, whilst I’m a Con voter, I feel that this sheds C4 is a worse light that Con. Had the Tories not offered up Gove and just said they werent joining, then I think it would have reflected worse on them, but the fact they offered Gove and C4 said no, it feels like it makes C4 look like they’re trying to take sides in the election.

  12. The climate debate is quite good stuff actually.

  13. Thanks Jones in Bangor – glad someone got my joke!

  14. I was going to say that Corbyn was impressive on climate debate but actually they’re all good on this, its a decent discussion, with different points put forward.

  15. @Adam

    Come on, face it.

    Boris doesn’t like being interviewed or challenged. He doesn’t like meeting the public at large. He doesn’t like his record being forensically dissected.

    He attends events carefully choreographed with people present like party members and those who won’t ask anything demanding.

    It obvious that this campaign is about keeping him away from scrutiny.

  16. BJ’s apparent reluctance to be interviewed by Andrew Neil is surely a tactical mistake. He should have just turned up and faced the music.

    There are now only two outcomes: he ducks the interview and is roundly, and rightly accused of cowardice; or the interview goes ahead with BJ psychologically on the back foot, and everyone watching in anticipation of a bloodbath.

  17. Hanretty has started a list “Withdrawn or disowned candidates” on wiki:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Withdrawn_or_disowned_candidates

    One polity does seem to be somewhat over represented!

    7/11 are due “anti-semitism” although some of them managed to tick more than one box with Houghton xSCON scoring a hat trick :<

    However, in terms of proportional representation then the split is remarkably close to polling – no major party is without its "bad apples"

  18. @ ADAM

    It’s a leaders debate, in a GE. If he can’t be bothered to turn up, then nobody should be sent in his stead.

  19. As @ProfHoward says there are a number of factors making Ynys Mon an unlikely Tory win; the most obvious ones being the late selection of a candidate from some obscure far away hellhole and the other being the obvious disaster facing the Island from almost any form or trade friction. PC should be mild favourites to win but a Lab hold also possible. Would be genuinely surprised if the Tories win, remembering the Brexit party have a local candidate. In the Senedd of course this is a safe PC seat

  20. CatmanJeff

    I agree – he’s deliberately only going on a certain number of this shows as a defensive tactic But he’s leading in the polls – anyone sane would do the same. Why do something to put yourself at risk?

    It doesnt change the point though that the Tories offered up Gove and broadcasters responsibility is to be impartial to parties – no reference to the personalities. It does seem like a blatant breach by them.

    Adam

  21. PRINCESS RACHEL.
    Thank you for your post. I have been thinking about this issue a great deal; for the first time in my nearly sixty five years on this earth (as far as I know) I will not attend some of the Christian ‘ Holy Week’ liturgy due to the language used in many texts about Jewish people as a group.
    You may know that even Attlee used to make bad remarks about ‘the chosen people’ -according to Hugh Dalton’s diary.

    Comments on UKPR that anti Corbyn people may be using the issue to attack him and his policies have some validity, IMO, as his supporters tend to overlook them, and opponents of Corbyn may be looking for ways to attack him.
    It seems difficult to get people to accept that attacking Luciana Berger for her membership and activity in Labour Friends of Israel (which Foot, Bevam, Crossman and Wilson supported from the old Left) by references to pork and yellow stars and zionist paymasters is ‘out of order’. Ad hominem and ad muelierculam comments are very unhelpful.

  22. John33 – responsibility is to be impartial to parties. Con offered up the person who was until recently environment secretary. Its not like they offered up some kid! He would have been very relevant to the debate, added a lot given his likes that sort of debating platform and there is the precedent with Amber Rudd last time

  23. I accept your point about the precedent but I don’t think it should have been accepted. Johnson is ducking scrutiny and exposure to the public, as much as he can get away with. Denying the public appropriate access during a GE, as a way of controlling variables, is beneath contempt.

  24. @ OldNat

    They’re all having a mare when it comes to the consequences of people forensically searching through their social media history and finding stuff. I just don’t think the political parties have the time and resources to investigate all their candidates as thoroughly as they might wish to.

    Who’d be a politician.

  25. “Both Corbyn’s and Sturgeon’s team told by the BBC Johnson would also do an Andrew Neil interview. That is why they agreed to the ordeal.
    Not only did the BBC lie, they are now discussing with No.10 to “compensate” Johnson for “time balance” with his choice of interviewer.”

    Craig Murray tweet

  26. John33 –

    Whether it SHOULD be accepted or not is hypothetical – the rules today are that parties should be treated equally. Con offered up Gove – highly qualified for this evening – and C4 said no.

    My guess is that BJ will do say 4 or 5 of the 7-8 TV debates. And if one channel is rumoured to be left-leaning, the editor of that channel recently called you a liar and one of that Channel’s flagship reporters recently said ‘f*** the Tories’, then isnt that one which you’d avoid in his shoes?

    My guess is that C4 will be reprimanded by Ofcom and ultimately this will reflect more negatively on them. I’d imagine that <10% of the viewers of the programme this evening would ever contemplating voting Tory. Possibly < 5% or much lower.

    Adam

  27. @ John33

    Boris has just been interviewed on local television down here and whether it was in the manifesto or not he’s promised us a water rates discount for whole of the next term “if” he gets elected. Very nice considering we will still have the most expensive water in the country.

    Corbyn was also on and promised us a new railway line through Okehampton, a regular express train service to Paddington which was stopped because not enough people used it and some other goodies. MBNA are going to be calling him soon to ask if he wants to increase the limit on his plastic!

  28. Noswaith Dda from the glorious Ynys Mon/Isle of Anglesey.

    This is a micro-cosm where its Parliamentary, Senedd, and local authority boundary are identical and where there are only 50,000 voters. It is (by tier) Labour, Plaid, Independent. The voters are very aware of who does what at which level and as a result have no qualms switching to who they perceive will do the best for the island (not Wales and certainly not the UK). They also do not tend to favour ‘outsider’ candidates nor candidates who do not speak Cymraeg. It voted to Leave in 2016.

    At parliamentary level Labour – in the shape of Albert Owen (‘Our Albert’), have held the seat since 2001 when they took it from Plaid (long story, all to do with local issues) and Plaid have long since held ambition to re-take the seat. Our Albert is standing-down.

    It was thought that the Plaid-LibDem-Green alliance would see this seat go to Plaid – but it isn’t turning out that way on the ground, here or elsewhere in Wales where Plaid is the Remain candidate.

    Part of the ‘alliance’ was that each of the other two parties activists would help the one that was standing. That isn’t happening, probably because the local Lib Dem and Green vote tends to be middle class English and pro-Union and is not particularly minded to help a party that wants independence. Knowing a couple of the plaid councillors and some Plaid party activists(everyone knows everyone round here) I can say they are rapidly becoming very disillusioned, blaming their party leadership for ‘trusting’ two – what they view as – English parties and think – from believing they would get 8 seats a few weeks ago, to now thinking they’ll be lucky if they have 4 and that they have been royally set-up by the Lib Dems and have walked into an ambush with their eyes wide open.

    This seat – which at the start of this was touted as likely to go Plaid, is actually now a straight fight between Labour and the Tories with Plaid a distant third. The Labour Leave vote has gone Tory and there are tory posters in windows in areas that have never voted tory. Because they want Brexit and because the Labour administration in Cardiff is viewed as a disaster and they have a genuine fear that a Corbyn government will be as inept as Mark Drakeford’s in Cardiff. The UKIP/Brexit Party support has also gone Tory.

    Labour locally appears to have taken the bulk of the Lib Dem & Green vote with Plaid making little headway.

    A question for JONESINBANGOR. I hear Hywel Williams (Plaid MP for neighbouring Arfon) is under intense pressure for the same reason – the LibDem/Green vote going Labour, hence why Plaid are sending Leanne wood there.

    As to my allegiances? I always vote Plaid at Senedd and council level, but Labour at UK level since 1975. This election I will be voting Tory.

  29. @ Redrich

    “when in the confines of their own conscience in the polling booth, a significant number of traditional Labour supporters won’t be able to vote Tory

    That’s the straw/hope I’m clutching on to.”

    It can be a very powerful force. In two recent GEs I have woken up on polling day morning with an unstoppable urge to vote with my heart over what I had been convinced for months was the right option in my head.

  30. Adam
    It’s a debate between leaders of UK political parties. Neither Gove nor Johnson’s Dad is a leader of a UK political party, so I’m not sure where your confusion lies. Just be grateful that tomorrow’s papers will not attack Johnson as they would Corbyn for missing a debate on arguably the most crucial issue of our time due to “reasons”.

  31. Interesting article in the Graun a about the Tories using doctored BBC news presenter footage:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/bbc-tells-tories-to-take-down-facebook-ad-featuring-its-presenters

    I particularly enjoyed the penultimate paragraph where the BBC claim it is damaging public perceptions of the BBC’s impartiality.

    LOL

  32. David – broadcasters responsibility is to treat parties equally. Not ‘treat parties equally provided that the leaders only are available to speak’ Its as simple as that. Anyway, lets see what Ofcom says. My guess is that they’ll back Con given the precedent of Rudd last time and responsibility relating to ‘parties’

  33. Dandelionwine,
    ” The Tories have virtually swept the board of Leavers according to the polls. That for me is by far the biggest shock of this campaign so far. An almighty miscalculation by Farage? or was UKIP/BXP always just a vehicle to push the country towards Brexit and then retire?”

    If you had studied what happened around the 2017 election, then the collapse of the BxP vote is not surprising. They are the extreme example of tactical voters, a one issue party. All their voters have moved to them over one issue, and I dont see it surprising if they would move somewhere else if that offers a better chance of providing what they want.

    But by that same token, if con fail to deliver, they will be back like a shot under BxP. And if brexit is accomplished they will not stay with the tories. Both failing and succeeding are electorally disastrous for the conservatives. Which has led to a 3 year policy of stalling.

    Worse than that, if con go through with brexit and it proves disastrous, then BxP will blame them for incompetent delivery. Farage has a party whose support goes up and down like a yoyo, but if his aim is to get into parliament ahead of a party, then all he has to do is wait for the conservatives to fail, one way or the other.

    There is only one way con could win, which is to deliver a successful brexit. If they thought it possible, negotiations would have been completed in one year and by now it would all be over. And we would be cheering May. But it makes no difference who is leading, it still cannot be done.

    Hence my contention, the only way out of this mess for con is if they lose power and someone else sorts out brexit such that it is no longer an issue. Wouldnt leave con in great shape, but their best hope is for there to be no brexit and for them to keep hold of voters wanting brexit, which however never proves to be possible.

    Farage and Bxps hope of becoming a parliamentary force depends on conservative failure. This is just about inevitable unless they can get labour to take over. So Farage just has to wait.

  34. These no-shows by Mr Johnson – and the behaviour of the BBC look very bad.

    Channel 4 just said that the party leaders who DID take part did so only on the basis that it would be a debate of party leaders. I think that’s pretty standard – quite conventional for people to want the same “level” of person to debate against.

    I thought the climate debate was very good because it allowed more depth on a given topic. But I think there should have been other debates specialising on other topics like the economy, brexit, NHS etc . Debates are usually too superficial (IMO)

  35. Adam

    “Its as simple as that”

    On that basis, it would be perfectly valid for a broadcaster to create a “debate” between a major party leader from one party, and 16 year old members of all the other parties.

  36. Channel Four were absolutely right to refuse Gove as a substitute for Johnson.On such a crucial issue Johnson is missing..
    As for the attempt to wriggle out of an interview with Neil what sort of leadership is this?

    Given concerns surrounding BBC impartially in regard to their editing ‘mistakes” they must not back down and agree to Johnson being interviewed by Marr. It will set a precedent for future elections, it will also raise questions at just how impartial the BBC really is.

  37. Oldnat

    I dont think thats right as they wouldnt be treating ‘parties’ remotely evenly.

    Again, I’m not really surely that there will be any meaningful penalty here, or that it will impact anything, but it makes C4 look pathetic in turning down Gove

  38. @ Adam

    Do you think ducking these events and interviews helps Johnson? I think it looks really bad. Is the idea behind it that most people aren’t engaged enough to notice?

  39. @ YNYS MON – Fully agree with the comments on a London CON candidate with some family links to S.Wales being v.unlikely to win the seat. Seems like a nice enough lady, maths teacher, etc but bit of a long shot.

    What is weird is why YG MRP shows CON as winning that seat?

    It’s a new LAB candidate so no “incumbency” mini-boost for LAB (something that does help them elsewhere) but BXP standing (and being shown at 9%) will surely draw more potential CON votes??

    It was 51% Leave in EURef (close to Welsh average) but does have a slightly older population (which would help CON but similar age demographic seats don’t have such a increase in CON %).

    I can’t see how the ‘Unite to Remain’ will be big boost for PC as LDEM didn’t really have a presence there anyway. I can’t see any evidence in the data file that suggests YG MRP Is picking up the “pact” as being good/bad for “pact” candidate anywhere (probably coz it won’t make any difference beyond maybe Exeter (safe LAB) and Stroud (lean CON) where it ironically helps LAB)

    My main interest is to try and “reverse engineer” YG MRP model to see if it is flagging a demographic or other variable that my/other “top-down” models are missing. It’s quite long way from the “model” for no reason that would fit with other difference – weird??

    It then flagged as a seat to look at with bookies as Paddy Power seem to have taken YG MRP as “gospel”. Implied likelihood to win (readjusted to 100%)

    CON: 37%
    LAB: 34%
    PC: 29%

    You can’t easily bet against CON in regular bookies and wide prices and low liquidity on betfair.

    Summary: put it down to some weird YG MRP issue that is probably “wrong”?

  40. This debate tonight should have been represented by experts from each party, you can’t expect the leaders to know this subject intimately which is why we have Government departments delegated to do this. I want to listen to people who really know what they are talking about.

    Michael Gove was in the building waiting to go on and Channel 4 prevented it happening. Childish!

  41. I personally don’t blame Johnson for not attending the Channel debate especially after Channel 4 News boss Mac Taggart speech and presenter Snow’s Glastonbury comments re the Tory party.

    It’s difficult to see how C4 would have treated Johnson with even a modicum of fairness.
    Incidentally it’s also a indication of the general attitude prevalent within C4 that when the Tories put forward a representative C4 make the decision that the public shouldn’t hear that voice.

  42. Bantam , the Tories are being childish trying to hide the buffon Johnson away from debates.Anybody left , right or centre knows the Tories are trying dictate and hide Johnson away because his deal is not Brexit.

  43. A few comments on the Boris no-show:
    1. A truly spectacular own-goal. Makes him look dodgy and cowardly on the biggest issue for many voters;
    2. Consolidates a picture of a leader who can’t lead;
    3. Makes it pretty clear that Tory central office think he’s a dud. He won’t last a year if re-elected. Gove?

    I wonder what went on? It would have been better for Boris to turn up and drool in front of the cameras, rather than end up as a puddle. I suspect the Tories thought that the Gove switch would really work. Channel 4 would cave in. When that didn’t happen, the whole scam went over a cliff.. That’s why they’ve now lashed out.

    The Tories have obviously decided they don’t want a big mandate, they want to hang onto what they’ve got. There are NO more votes for them out there (their Brexit vote has peaked and nobody else will switch over). They’ve also worked out their candidate is a bit of a, well, dud in great swathes of the country. So they’re just going to play defensive and try to flop over the line. That’s a time honoured tactic, of course. But it has its dangers. It certainly may not be attractive to undecided voters.

  44. So in summary. Everyone on UKPR that h8tes the Tories, still h8tes the Tories and everything to do (or in this case didn’t do)

    zzz ZZZ

    night all ;)

  45. Freddo

    Another theory is that climate change denial and being a brexit supporter is correlated and this is a way to get labour leavers to support their man. Trump’s attitude to Paris accord the same phenomenon.

  46. The empty chair ice sculpture said “Conservative” not “Boris Johnson” this set me up with an expectation as I had tuned in halfway through. I was very surprised when I found out at the end that Gove had been rejected.

  47. @ Adam

    ” 2) On the contrary, Labour narrowly losing seats which it would have won before (London, midlands, north), will mean it has MORE wasted votes

    Again, this should more closely align lead and seats won, not widen it ”

    This one has been rattling round my head and I’m still not sure I quite grasp your point, but let’s approach it another way.

    The difference between 2017 and the current 2019 predictions is not that there’s a big swing between CON and LAB – in fact the CON percentage is fairly similar in both. The big difference is that there’s been a large swing from LAB to LIBD. OK, in detail, the actual movements are more complicated, but the overall effect is a reduction of the LAB vote while the CON vote is holding.

    The increase in LIBD vote has apparently almost no effect (according the the MRP) apart from making their votes even less efficient than last time.

    The CON vote is practically static, but they get more seats because LAB have fallen back (minus a few loses to SNP etc). So their vote becomes more efficient essentially.

    The LAB vote has fallen back, and at the same time they lose seats, by chance giving them a fairly similar strike rate per vote. There’s not so much stacking of votes in safe constituencies, I guess, because the vote has fallen off everywhere. So although it might seem like more ‘wasted’ votes, due to loses, the loses are roughly in proportion to the lost VI percentage.

    In the end, the overall effect is for the CON vote to become more efficient, and the LibDem less so.

    Does that make sense? Even if it doesn’t directly answer your questions.

  48. @Adam

    Ofcom backing the Tories doesn’t make it right. It was for the leaders, and that was the perception, and anything else is a cowardly move from the feathered one in No.10

  49. ON

    “On that basis, it would be perfectly valid for a broadcaster to create a “debate” between a major party leader from one party, and 16 year old members of all the other parties.”

    Leaving aside the fact there aren’t sixteen other parties I don’t think any of them have yet opened up membership to one year olds.

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