Here are the mid-week polls so far:

Kantar – CON 45%(+8), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 16%(-1), BREX 2%(-7)
YouGov/Times/Sky – CON 42%(-3), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc)
ICM/Reuters – CON 42%(+3), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(-3)
Survation/GMB – CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 5%

A few things to note. Kantar and ICM have now removed the Brexit party as an option in the seats where they are not standing, which will have contributed to the increase in Conservative support and decrease in Brexit party support (YouGov had already introduced this change last week).

The Survation poll is the first telephone poll that they’ve conducted in this election campaign (all their other recent polls have been conducted online), hence they’ve recommended against drawing direct comparisons with their previous poll. The fourteen point Tory lead in this poll is substantially larger than in Survation’s previous poll, which had a lead of only six points, but it’s impossible to tell whether that’s down to an increase in Conservative support or the different methodology. At the last election their two approaches produced similar results, with their final poll being conducted by phone.

Finally, Kantar’s polling has received some criticism on social media for their approach to turnout weighting, with “re-weighted” versions of their figures doing the rounds. The details of this criticism are wrong on almost every single measure. It’s very easy for people to retweet figures claiming they show the turnout figures from Kantar, but it takes rather longer to explain why the sums are wrong Matt Singh did a thread on it here, and RSS Statistical Ambassador, Anthony Masters, has done a lengthier post on it here.

In short, the claims confuse normal demographic weights (the ones Kantar use to ensure the proportion of young and old people in the samples matches the figures the ONS publish for the British population as a whole) with their turnout model. Secondly, they compare youth turnout to early estimates straight after the 2017 election, when there have been subsequent measures from the British Election Study that were actually checked against the marked electoral register, so are almost certainly more accurate. Compared to those figures, Kantar’s turnout levels look far more sensible. The figures do imply a small increase in turnout among older voters, a small drop amongst younger votes, but nowhere near the level that has been bandied about on social media.

However, if we leave aside the specific criticisms, it is true to say that turnout has different impacts on different pollsters. In the 2017 election many pollsters adopted elaborate turnout models based on demographic factors. These models largely backfired, so pollsters dropped them. Most polling companies are now using much simpler turnout models, that have much less of an impact, and which are based primarily on how likely respondents to the poll say they will vote.

Kantar is the exception – in 2017 they used a model that predicted people’s likelihood to vote based on both how likely they said they were to vote, but also their past voting and how old they are. Unlike many other companies this worked well for them and they were one of the more accurate polling companies, so they kept it. That does mean that Kantar now have a turnout model that makes more difference than most.

Looking at the polls at the top of this post, factoring in turnout made no difference to the lead in YouGov’s poll (it was a 12 point Tory lead before turnout weighting, a 12 point Tory lead afterwards). The same is true of Survation – their poll would have had a 14 point lead before turnout was factored in, and a 14 point lead afterwards. In ICM’s poll, without turnout the lead would have been 7 points, with turnout it grows to 10 points. With Kantar’s latest poll, the tables suggest that the turnout weighting increased the Tory lead from 10 points to 18 points.

Hence, while the specific claims about Kantar are nonsense, it is true to say their turnout model has more impact than that of some other companies. That does not, of course, mean it is wrong (turnout is obviously a significant factor in elections). However, before going off on one about how important turnout weighting is to the current polls, it’s rather important to note that for many companies it is contributing little or nothing to the size of the Tory lead.


1,091 Responses to “Latest voting intention and the impact of turnout”

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  1. From Tim Shipman via Britain Elects:

    BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48

    Con 349
    Lab 213
    LD 14
    SNP 49
    Plaid 5
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)

  2. I’m not seeing that latest YG poll on their site. Anyone got a link?

  3. OldNat – caveat: what i say about YouGov sample size is second hand so may be wrong.

    Frosty: any other bits from that New Statesman article? I’ve hit my limit from the NS.

  4. @Oldnat – the %s for each party appeared earlier on their tracker pdf but not anywhere else as far as i know. Looking at the tracker pdf now it seems to have disappeared and there is no link i can see elsewhere yet?

  5. @Profhoward, I think the big yougov poll was done 12-20 November, eg in the link below

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e1hcjlt1lq/Internal_AgeGE_Nov19_v2.pdf

  6. Re: new statesman article, i don’t think there is much more to add really. The only specific seat they give as changing hands is Zac Goldsmith which i don’t think will surprise many people.

  7. Thanks Frosty.

  8. Frosty

    Ta. It will have included the data from the 3 previous constituency based polls (plus some others post 19 Nov).

  9. The prospect of unseating Raab, Duncan-Smith, and Johnson will make tactical voting very prevalent in those seats, but even with tactical voting, looks a long shot in each one.

  10. ah, yougov tables are here https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0r7hd5gxhg/TheSundayTimes_VI_Results_191122_w.pdf

    Quite a lot of supplemental questions on there, a lot of them regarding the monarchy.

  11. I see labour’s broadband policy is already having an effect, just saw a BT advert for full fibre broadband

  12. Tory majority of 48 doesn’t seem impossible to overturn, was worried it was more like 150

  13. This McDonnell offer on pensions is interesting. 3 million women born in the 1950s who missed out when the retirement and pension age was raised to be compensated if Labour came into power: –

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/labour-fifty-eight-billion-pound-pledge-women-pension-age-trap

  14. As part of my ongoing (and possibly entirely futile) analysis of YG’s Scots crossbreaks –

    YG Scots crossbreaks (in lieu of actual Scots polls)
    Average of Last 6 (N=845 : last 4 based on constituency VI : changes from Previous 15 in brackets)
    SNP 43.2% (1.3)
    SCon 25.5% (4.9)
    SLab 13.2% (1.0)
    SLD 11.8% (-1.3)
    BxP 3.5% (-3.0)
    Grn 3% (-1.5)

    Data increasingly includes the effects of SGP and BxP not standing candidates, but that little slide in SLD support may be interesting (or of no relevance at all!)

  15. MBRUNO
    “Which is why they [Regions] want instead to surrender ever increasing powers to a federal European Union, where decisions are taken by majority on a council of 28 highly divergent and culturally heterogeneous countries ?”

    Mercia for one would be a highly successful independent nation outside the EU. :)
    ——————————
    Trigguy (and others)
    “Agreed that this site has absolutely no influence on anything, except maybe the moods of a very small number of people who could probably very reasonably be described by your name.”

    We don’t know who just reads it though. Once or twice I’ve wondered after we’ve had a big discussion of some issue on here and there is then some statement by one party or another a day or two later which appears to echo our musings.
    ————————————
    TOBYTRONICSTEREOPHONIC
    I have voted for pretty well every party available (including Natural Law! – I thought their mattress bouncing made much more sense than the main parties’ policies at the time) since my first GE in 1974 (I think), though I haven’t kept detailed records. There has never been a major party that represents all of my views, but sometimes one comes along that represents some of them.
    ——————————-
    Valerie
    ” Pete B commented that there were often benefit claimants in the taxi queue when he went to his local supermarket.
    Myself and others asked how he knew they were claimants but he never responded.”

    Sorry, as I just look in here from time to time I missed that. For a start there isn’t a queue for taxis, there are just occasional people (who takes a taxi to the supermarket?). I happen to know one or two of them personally. Disability is one thing, but I don’t see why able-bodied jobless people should be subsidised in this way. I think it’s the council that does it, rather than central government, but not sure.

  16. CB
    Yes, on Friday Johnson had a mirror of May’s ‘no magic money tree’ moment, saying he couldn’t magic up money for the WASPI women. Very sharp move by McDonnell to push it tonight. The thing is, it’s as clever John says, a debt of honour.
    Trevs, you are reading my posts! Thanks for the gambling advice, will tell you when I have made my mind up.

  17. Oldnat

    Interesting. I do think the longitudinal change is informative.

  18. @ Crossbat

    Your pie lady story mirrors the two stock Chorley songs this season.

    The standard one is “you’re nothing special we lose every week” (you can find a West Ham version on youtube) but now and again and a rare win today in fact the alternate version is “how sh*t must you be we lose every week”.

    Thanks to B&B for the folly information- I was well and truly follied as I had the impression this was some sort of hundreds of years old ancient building.

    Yes polls grim reading for Labour (and Lib Dems and remain) although there is still a way to go and firming up of Labour don’t knows and a clawback from Lib Dems seems on the cards at the last minute at least in their target areas. I don’t think this is going to be enough to overcome the number of voters in key marginals willing to vote Conservative to get Brexit done.

    With Lib Dems the constituency polling isn’t good enough. It seemed early on they had possible squeeze seats vs Tories but when you look at the figures they just aren’t close enough.

  19. Those who support more Labour type of politics will find it depressing that Scots – once a source of solidarity – are now *flocking* to Boris Johnson’s Tory Party.

  20. Shevii

    It looks like, in a lot of Greater London seats, the rise of the Lib Dems will let Tories in through the middle.

  21. @ProfHoward

    “The prospect of unseating Raab, Duncan-Smith, and Johnson will make tactical voting very prevalent in those seats, but even with tactical voting, looks a long shot in each one.”

    Labour straw-clutcher here! I wonder if these polls suggesting a Tory landslide, as most appear to do now, with a lead ballooning to 19% in one of them, might just stiffen up the ABT section of the electorate, united in their fear of a Johnson Tory government.

    And, if so, could that galvanise and precipitate serious tactical voting on a par with 1992 when Major couldn’t convert his 42% popular vote into anything more than a 21 seat overall majority?

    Of course, this will require Labour, LD, Green, PC, Independent inclined voters in a host of constituencies ganging up on the Tory incumbent or challenger. We have to accept now that Johnson has united the Leave vote and they are going to come out in very large numbers on December 12th. There’s not much that can be done about that now, beyond trying to mobilise an anti vote that in size is as near as possible to it and to optimise that vote’s deployment in ballot boxes all over the country.

    Swinson and Corbyn can’t be relied upon to lead this, In fact Swinson still appears, incredibly, to have Corbyn in her cross hairs, so the voters will have to do it.

  22. Crossbat11

    Yes the voters will have to do it but I think there is a need some kind of non-partisan way to tell people who to vote for in each constituency — i.e. a trusted person who is not Labour or Lib Dem just forming an unbiased judgement in each seat. We have Gina Miller but perhaps she is too close to the Lib Dems.

  23. Someone was asking about the politics of the posters and if the discussions here influenced politics

    I’ve only voted twice 97 and 17 and of course I’m voting this year as I finally have something to vote for

    I believe that AW once mentioned that there was a senior govt figure who looked into these discussions from time to time, not sure if that influenced anything ;p

  24. Putting these figures into electoral calculus gives a result very close to that MRP model:
    Con 43
    LAB 31
    LIB 14
    Scots as crossbreak posted above.

    Seems to verify their model very well indeed, which is nice for us.

  25. Prof Howard @ CB11

    “I think there is a need some kind of non-partisan way to tell people who to vote for in each constituency”

    In the Scottish polity, things are a little different.

    As I’ve pointed out before, the arguments about union/alliance with England or Europe are centuries old. Being based on geopolitical realities, the core arguments hasn’t changed – just the particular circumstances in which it is conducted.

    The UK Unionist position is essentially predicated on a belief that no matter how bad a Westminster government would be, it is always preferable to Scotland governing itself.

    It is little wonder, therefore, that UK Unionists “flock” to the Tories, as they once “flocked” to Labour.

    In constituencies where SCon held, or might take, a seat, an SLD or SLab vote will not reduce the chance of an overall Tory majority, and may increase that likelihood.

    Those who exercise their democratic right to prefer the UK Union (within or outwith the European Union) over other constitutional arrangements should not whine about the inevitable consequences (as they undoubtedly will).

  26. Here’s an interesting one

    DELTAPOLL NET APPROVAL:

    BORIS JOHNSON: -10 (-14)
    JEREMY CORBYN -34 (+9)

    (fieldwork 21st to 22nd Nov, chgs with 14th Nov)

    Quite a change in approval ratings in the last week.

  27. Crossbat11,

    Re your enjoyment of your trip to Matlock:

    You’re welcome, though I was oop north in Bakewell this afternoon. Its a small world.

  28. i.e. Johnson’s approval rating is down 14 percentage points, Corbin’s up 9 percentage points. Quite a narrowing. Statistically significant assuming a decent sample size.

  29. ITV news (Carl Dinnen) has tweeted the main things in the Conservative Manifesto:

    – no rise in income tax, NI or VAT
    – pensions triple lock
    – £1bn for childcare
    – £2bn for tackling potholes
    – Free hospital parking for some
    – energy price cap stays
    – ban on exporting plastic waste outside OECD

  30. Net approval ratings – last four weeks, getting more recent as you move right (Deltapoll)

    Johnson: +2, -5, +4, -10
    Corbyn: -43, -48, -43, -34

    Difference: 45, 43, 47, 24

    The difference (24) is much narrower in the last week than the 43-47 range in the previous three weeks.

  31. ban on exporting plastic waste outside OECD

    And where do they propose plastic recovered in the UK to be reprocessed?

  32. @ProfHoward/JimJam

    I think the contents of the Tory manifesto are a matter of almost total irrelevance in the context of this election. The voters they’ve acquired and regained won’t be interested in it beyond it’s commitment to getting Brexit done and I don’t suppose there will anything in it to woo waverers not already successfully wooed. I think they’ve locked down the size of vote they need and it will neither increase nor, sadly, decrease much between now and December 12th. The collapse of Farage’s party was the game-changer in this election. No other game-changer in sight, I fear.

    @Bedknobs and Broomsticks

    “You’re welcome, though I was oop north in Bakewell this afternoon. Its a small world.”

    Were you attending the Bakewell Christmas Market? I was originally intending to get to Matlock via the Derby Road (A6) but diverted via another route after a hold up on the A38 near Burton. It was fortunate I did because on the radio station I had on in the car it said that A6 in Bakewell was choked with traffic due to the Fair. I blithely sailed by on another road, avoiding the hold up, steered by my trusty 10 year old sat nav. although it did take me on an obscure road that plunged me into some low cloud up on the Derbyshire Dales near Ashbourne. Almost ran over a stray sheep!

    (Trouble with a 10 year old satnav is that it obviously doesn’t recognise road layout changes that have happened in the interim. I’ve had a few glitches accordingly, once being beckoned down a buses only lane in Sheffield that had a police enforcement camera operating. £60 fine for my trouble!)

  33. @ProfHoward

    It’s a broad church of ultra-unionist and ultra-brexit, plus the usual Con voters and some fearty LD voters that see Boris as a better bet than the end of the world (CCHQ’s take on JC).

    Basically the usual risk-adverse types, plus the Brexiteers.

  34. @ProfHoward

    Forgot to mention. Is a drop from 29% to 25% a flock? Seems more of a retreat to me.

  35. The Datapraxis MRP modelling predicts that 7 big beast Brexiteers are in danger of losing their seats. Boris Johnson looks just safe but Zac Goldsmith in mortal trouble, Raab, IDS and Redwood all vulnerable. Baker, Philip Davies theoretically in danger of tactical voting (Tim Shipman)

  36. Just a couple of points on those Tory pledges:

    – no rise in income tax, NI or VAT

    Or no rise in public services. So extra cash from…

    – pensions triple lock

    Means nothing. Pensions are never truly protected from a government that refuses to honour them.

    – £1bn for childcare

    Not needed. Parents more than capable of childcare. Seems like a glib statement.

    – £2bn for tackling potholes

    So potholes twice as important as childcare? Rename them to ‘ditches’, and watch as Tories fill them in frantically. :D

  37. Cross bat

    I do enjoy reading your tales of pounding the street canvassing and your passion for football, although I find watching a match less interesting than watching paint dry :-)

    I am gloomy about the general election. I fear we will be ruled by bunch of right-wing mediocrities who, as their ill-conceived Brexit wreaks havoc, come down hard on the poor, the disabled, the vulnerable and anyone who can’t fight back.

    My only crumb of comfort is that we, the self-appointed coalition, will be sitting there at 9.59pm on 12th December and as the exit poll is revealed, we’ll raise a glass or two to drown our sorrows and stick two fingers up at Andrew Neil!

    I will also be guilty of some schadenfreude, in the months, nay years to come, as the Brexit negotiations stutter and splutter, sap the will and addle the brains of all those ultras who did this to our country.

  38. New Scottish Westminster poll,
    Panelbase 20-22 Nov (changes vs 9-11 Oct);

    SNP – 40% (+1)
    Con – 28% (+7)
    Lab – 20% (+1)
    LD – 11% (-2)
    Brex – <1% (-4 to 5ish)
    Green, UKIP and exact Brexit figure TBC.

  39. I’m a little unconvinced by the Datapraxit report, having looked at the site, which seems very much about self-publicity.

    Still, there remains a theoretical possibility that 3 of the 4 main party leaders at Westminster could be looking for a new job on 13 Dec.

    Johnson losing to tactical votes for Labour
    Blackford losing to tactical votes for Lib Dem
    Swinson losing to tactical votes for SNP

    Add in Corbyn losing Labour leadership to Blairites, and there could be a clean sweep!

  40. These polling results from Scotland will be concerning for those seeking to avoid a Boris Johnson hard Brexit. They suggest Tories could hold on to many of their seats.

  41. Scottish people swinging behind Mr Johnson’s Tory Party, and potentially giving the UK the hardest of hard Brexits. Ruth Davidson’s legacy. Our future.

  42. Prof Howard

    Other than the Tories collecting the previous BxP vote, that’s pretty much a no change from the Panelbase October poll.

    SNP +1 : SLab +1 : SLD -2 : SCon +7 : BxP -5 (ish)

  43. Oldnat. Fair enough.

    I’d not heard of Data praxis before by the way. Are they new to this?

  44. Oldnat

    Corbyn could be forced to resign but I’m not sure of the timescale given that we will also be without a deputy leader following the election. Chances of the next labour leader being a blairite are extremely low. High probability that the next leader will be female. Anyone who resigned from the shadow cabinet in 2016 doesn’t have a chance, Angela Raynor, long bailey, pocock and dawn butler are the front runners keir has a chance but cheerleading from the remaining blairites will hurt him. Fully expect Phillips to be the standard bearer for the right of the party, that wont end well

  45. Princess

    Forgot to welcome you back when you started commenting again. It’s good to see you back.

    My post on the fall of party leaders was in jest, all seem rather unlikely, though ELab will probably want to reconsider their leadership, since only a Tory-lite leader seems to be a potential electoral success in England.

  46. I’ve updated my model with the YG Sunday Times poll.

    Seats

    Con 356 (+38)
    Lab 200 (-62)
    SNP 46 (+11)
    LD 25 (+13)
    PC 3 (-1)

    Conservative majority 62

    Vote Share

    Con 40%
    Lab 28%
    LD 16%

  47. Electoral Calculus, using the Panelbase numbers, predicts that the Tories would lose only one seat in Scotland whereas Labour would lose 6 and the LibDems would gain one. All 6 lost Labour seats and the lost Tory seat would be gained by the SNP, but the SNP would also lose one seat to the LibDems.

  48. @ProfHoward

    Shevii

    It looks like, in a lot of Greater London seats, the rise of the Lib Dems will let Tories in through the middle.

    These are the London seats changes on my model as it stands now:

    Battersea – Change from Lab to Con
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Change from Lab to LD
    Croydon Central – Change from Lab to Con
    Dagenham and Rainham – Change from Lab to Con
    Enfield, Southgate – Change from Lab to Con
    Kensington – Change from Lab to Con
    Richmond Park – Change from Con to LD

  49. Comparing that Panelbase poll with the 2017 GE, changes in vote share would be –

    SNP + 3 : SCon -1 : SLab -7 : SLD +4 : Others -1

    Other than SLab sliding further doon the stank, with their net support trending a little to SNP and SLD, little seems to have changed in the last couple of years.

  50. @OldNat

    Considering that the SCon had fallen to 20/21 % since the 2017 GE, they are now trending up (and back to the vote share they had two years ago). IF the trend continues, they may actually hold on to all of their current Scottish seats , or even gain an additional one.

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