Here are the mid-week polls so far:

Kantar – CON 45%(+8), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 16%(-1), BREX 2%(-7)
YouGov/Times/Sky – CON 42%(-3), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc)
ICM/Reuters – CON 42%(+3), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(-3)
Survation/GMB – CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 5%

A few things to note. Kantar and ICM have now removed the Brexit party as an option in the seats where they are not standing, which will have contributed to the increase in Conservative support and decrease in Brexit party support (YouGov had already introduced this change last week).

The Survation poll is the first telephone poll that they’ve conducted in this election campaign (all their other recent polls have been conducted online), hence they’ve recommended against drawing direct comparisons with their previous poll. The fourteen point Tory lead in this poll is substantially larger than in Survation’s previous poll, which had a lead of only six points, but it’s impossible to tell whether that’s down to an increase in Conservative support or the different methodology. At the last election their two approaches produced similar results, with their final poll being conducted by phone.

Finally, Kantar’s polling has received some criticism on social media for their approach to turnout weighting, with “re-weighted” versions of their figures doing the rounds. The details of this criticism are wrong on almost every single measure. It’s very easy for people to retweet figures claiming they show the turnout figures from Kantar, but it takes rather longer to explain why the sums are wrong Matt Singh did a thread on it here, and RSS Statistical Ambassador, Anthony Masters, has done a lengthier post on it here.

In short, the claims confuse normal demographic weights (the ones Kantar use to ensure the proportion of young and old people in the samples matches the figures the ONS publish for the British population as a whole) with their turnout model. Secondly, they compare youth turnout to early estimates straight after the 2017 election, when there have been subsequent measures from the British Election Study that were actually checked against the marked electoral register, so are almost certainly more accurate. Compared to those figures, Kantar’s turnout levels look far more sensible. The figures do imply a small increase in turnout among older voters, a small drop amongst younger votes, but nowhere near the level that has been bandied about on social media.

However, if we leave aside the specific criticisms, it is true to say that turnout has different impacts on different pollsters. In the 2017 election many pollsters adopted elaborate turnout models based on demographic factors. These models largely backfired, so pollsters dropped them. Most polling companies are now using much simpler turnout models, that have much less of an impact, and which are based primarily on how likely respondents to the poll say they will vote.

Kantar is the exception – in 2017 they used a model that predicted people’s likelihood to vote based on both how likely they said they were to vote, but also their past voting and how old they are. Unlike many other companies this worked well for them and they were one of the more accurate polling companies, so they kept it. That does mean that Kantar now have a turnout model that makes more difference than most.

Looking at the polls at the top of this post, factoring in turnout made no difference to the lead in YouGov’s poll (it was a 12 point Tory lead before turnout weighting, a 12 point Tory lead afterwards). The same is true of Survation – their poll would have had a 14 point lead before turnout was factored in, and a 14 point lead afterwards. In ICM’s poll, without turnout the lead would have been 7 points, with turnout it grows to 10 points. With Kantar’s latest poll, the tables suggest that the turnout weighting increased the Tory lead from 10 points to 18 points.

Hence, while the specific claims about Kantar are nonsense, it is true to say their turnout model has more impact than that of some other companies. That does not, of course, mean it is wrong (turnout is obviously a significant factor in elections). However, before going off on one about how important turnout weighting is to the current polls, it’s rather important to note that for many companies it is contributing little or nothing to the size of the Tory lead.


1,091 Responses to “Latest voting intention and the impact of turnout”

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  1. Even assuming the ITV debate was s draw, it would be a victory for BJ since Corbyn needed a knockout to reverse the polls. And I am not even sure it was a draw since the polls say BJ came across as more “ prime ministerial” and also scored much higher in the topic that is dominating the GE campaign, which is Brexit.

  2. M Bruno

    “the topic that is dominating the GE campaign, which is Brexit.”

    Might be true where you are, but in Scotland the Better Together team are still concentrating on not allowing indyref2.

    Seems an odd position to take, if they think they would win. Opposing indy is a perfectly respectable stance, but their concentration is on denying Scots the right to take that decision.

    I suppose it’s some kind of British concept – that only in Westminster with its inbuilt huge majority of English/British MPs can true democracy be found (or funded).

  3. ON
    “Steve is going to even more distressed that actual voters couldn’t be arsed to watch tonight,”

    Who’s Steve?

  4. @Oldnat

    The laughable thing is that any of them thinks that the majority of any polity can’t exercise its rights, within its own borders.

    Maybe that’s the fear. Fear of a significant majority of Scots realising that no one can stop it if they go with it.

    I chuckled earlier, chatting to Mrs Statgeek about two Englishmen arguing over which of them would be better at stopping Scotland from managing itself.

  5. Jeremy did pretty well in the TV debate last night. However the Tory /Boria argument on Brexxt – ‘Let’s get it done.’ needs to be exploded, and understanding of the Labour position strengthened. In particular the damage which will be done by leaving the Single Market , which Labour will retain in either a Labour deal or in Remain – to retaining the tariff and barrier free trade with the EU, to jobs, to the Friday Agree,et, to access to skilled EU labour and to jobs in the EU, to scientific, educational, IP and security. I suggest that t Jeremy need to be saying that the Boris deal is like the drunk with toothache who staggers into the dentists and says ‘take the bl–dy lot out.’ We’ll end up on a diet of broth through a straw.

  6. Thought Corbyn just edged the debate, but agree with some others on here, he did not want to go for the jugular and let Johnson off the hook too often

    But this seems to be over shadowed this morning as the Conservative fake fact check account is getting a lot of airtime. It does play into the mind set already out there about the fact that Johnson and the Conservative Party under Cummings guidance cannot be trusted and there relationship with the truth is tenuous at best.
    This was best illustrated in the debate when Johnson was telling people he could be trusted and the ‘truth matters’, there followed a lot of spontaneous laughter

  7. I see McCluskey has helpfully advised Corbyn not to stand down straight away if he loses and also predicts protestant violence.

    He always says the wrong thing at the wrong time..

    Time to retire Lenny.

  8. “ut their concentration is on denying Scots the right to take that decision.”

    Scots have already taken that decision – that they remain a part of the UK as much as Yorkshire, Lancashire or any of the other prior counties and kingdoms (Elmet for example). The decision was taken in 2014 in case you forgot, and it is time you accepted it. Much as it is time the remaining Europhiles accepted we are leaving the EU

    The UK is able to fund decisions more than the parts because the UK owns the currency we use.

    Scotland is no more able to fund things differently than Texas is within the USA. And is no more likely to leave the UK than Texas is the USA.

    The state is the entity that controls the currency you use. And as we saw with Greece, not having control of the currency means your politicians are powerless if the central bank decides to play nasty.

  9. Statgeek,
    “If London had voted leave, the past three years would have been rolled into 3 months and we would have been out of the the EU.”

    I dont think its an issue of the primacy of London. But if London had been more leave, then likely everywhere else would have been more leave and there would have been a respectable majority to leave rather than the near tie we actually got.

    Glad to see though you agree that essentially the government have stalled over brexit for three years. Which I have argued with limited support, that they really dont want to leave. Quite happy to agree this is a pragmatic rather than ideological choice on their part.

    Pete B,
    “. One had seen a few minutes then come to the pub”

    Isnt that a self selecting sample of people not interested in watching the debate, otherwise they wouldnt have walked out to the pub while it was on?

    Oldnat,
    “just as many UKPR veterans didn’t.”

    It was a bit painfull to watch. Maybe give BJ a comedy script to deliver and might have been better, while JC could perhaps have presented a gardening program.

    As to incisive political critique, well. The compere getting them to shake hands? Ridiculous!

  10. Neil Wilson: Scots have already taken that decision – that they remain a part of the UK as much as Yorkshire, Lancashire or any of the other prior counties and kingdoms (Elmet for example). The decision was taken in 2014 in case you forgot, and it is time you accepted it.

    That is entirely a matter for Scots to decide

    Much as it is time the remaining Europhiles accepted we are leaving the EU
    And that is a matter for the British to decide or for Scotland and the rest of the UK to decide if the Scots decide for Independence.

    None of this goes according to lazy assumptions as a default. It is doing that which has brought about the present situation. You can’t fix it with more of the same.

  11. @Neil Wilson

    Much as it is time the remaining Europhiles accepted we are leaving the EU

    Why should I?

  12. Statgeek,
    “If London had voted leave, the past three years would have been rolled into 3 months and we would have been out of the the EU.”

    Totally agree it’s the Westminster Bubble / Planet London effect

  13. Corbyn not attacking Johnson on integrity/mendacity etc must have been a clear tactic decided by Labour.

    Either focus groups said that they did not like it or there was a worry that Corbyn’s own baggage from the past would be dragged centre stage.

    My guess is that Labour’s belief is that attacks on Johnsons Integrity, which are likely to have some traction whatever views we personally have, are better coming from the public and or the media.

    The calculation being that once someone has an encounter which raises his past lying and other issues to such an extent it leads the news the herd like media will jump on it.

    Corbyn is vulnerable here as well but possibly that is already factored in to a greater extent?

  14. @ NEILJ (last thread) – So you want to hit pensioners with higher tax (via NI) and your ranting has nothing to do with workers.

    Why didn’t you just state that straight away?

    I’d actually be in favour of that but did you miss GE’17 and the “triple punch to pensioners” line that your team landed on the no show Mayb0t?

    Sadly, you can forget any party “punching” pensioners in this GE (or probably any future GE either).

  15. @ Neil Wilson

    not Scottish nor a nationalist, generally a unionist. However, with a post like yours indicating a colonial attitude I can understand a negative reaction and an encouragement of independence!

  16. Jim Jam

    I agree. It is daft to suggest, as some have, that Corbyn ‘ missed an own goal’ by not going for the jugular. He simply assessed that it wasn’t the right strategy, for the reasons you outlined. The debate format was appalling and when the audience weren’t incessantly clapping like drunken seals, they were jeering and heckling. No real time for either to answer questions in any detail, which is crucial for informing the viewer and to give a chance for debate to flow properly. I am sick if this infantilising of politics in this country – if Ant & Dec weren’t in the jungle, I suspect they would have been hosting.

  17. Statgeek

    “If London had voted leave, the past three years would have been rolled into 3 months and we would have been out of the the EU.”

    This seems to me to ignore all the obvious practical issues involved in Leaving the EU for the sake of a dig at London’s voters.

  18. Excellent comments from AW as always.

    Without going back over the “youthquake” (or not) again I’ll repost the Guardian link that showed the % changes in actual voting by age break (2015 to 2017)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/ng-interactive/2017/jun/20/young-voters-class-and-turnout-how-britain-voted-in-2017

    1/ With an excel spreadsheet and bit of maths you can work out the “implied” turnouts by age breaks from various pollsters.

    2/ You can also take the VI % by age break from any polling company

    3/ You can compare different “plausible scenarios” to see how much effect a higher/lower turnout by age group would have on %s

    4/ If you have a snazzy model with the age demographics at the seat level you can even see the impact at seat level (and GE’s are won by #seats not %s)

    So the question is what is the demographic profile of the “marginal” seats”?

    LAB-CON are almost all “older” demographics (CON need to win these and LAB can’t afford to lose many of them – hence no one is going to “punch” and pensioners)

    CON-LDEM bit of a mixed bag[1]. I reckon LDEM have more chance in the “younger” ones in-near London and less in the “older” ones (especially the cov(old, rich) ones)

    SCON-SNP are all “older” demographics (and older Scots are also less likely to want Indy)

    So even if we get a much higher youth turnout (and GE’17 had a huge increase over GE’15) then it won’t have much impact on seat changes[2] – it will simply be LAB “vote stacking” in seats they already have (or where CON have no chance)

    However, if CON can get the grey vote out and turn a few more of them to CON then they win a lot more seats (and have better chance of keeping SCON and most LDEM marginals)

    [1] eg Cheltenham is “young” where as Cheadle is “old”. Most of “proper” SW is “old”

    [2] There are obviously a few exceptions in an n=632 sample. One is Boris’s own seat of course!!

  19. From what I have read it doesn’t seem that last night’s leaders’ debate will change many minds, apparently a draw, whatever that means in this context. I would have thought the Tories the most pleased but that is probably just my own bias.

    We will get the manifestoes over the next few days starting with the LibDems today. They may have more effect; they certainly did last time. I will be certainly reading and comparing the Tory and Labour manifestoes.

    Although football doesn’t mean much to me it was good to hear that Wales qualified last night.

  20. Weather Reports:

    A number of the 30 day models are now reporting, with these starting to cover election day in week 4.

    A general consensus appears to be emerging for a period of calmer weather throughout the first half of December, with the jet stream nudged slightly northwards and a high pressure system starting to build over the UK. The position of these systems is currently predicted to be such that we are anticipating relatively mild SW airflows across much of the country.

    This firming up of the forecasts suggests that election day, and the preceding period, is likely to be milder than average, with some rain but nothing too wet, with possibly fog and night frosts, depending on local conditions. The far north of Scotland may prove the exception, with the potential for stronger winds around the norther edge of the high pressure system.

    The big caveat is that from weeks 3 – 4, the models uncertainties dramatically increase. It is common to see the models ‘flip’ at these time ranges, so we aren’t yet ready to see any firm forecasts for Dec 12th.

  21. OLDNAT

    @”Of course I don’t worry about an anagram that is grammatically wrong.”

    I was responding to your advice to us all that you are ” not convinced that anyone should be offended by varying letter order.”

    You didn’t mention grammar.

  22. @ ON and other SNP supporters:

    Acts of Union (1706/07): Scotland sign up for it. Get over it.

    Battle of Culloden (1746): You lost. Get over it.

    Indyref (2014): Scotland voted by 55.3 to 44.7% to remain a part of the UK. Get over it.

    General Election (2015): The SNP went from 6 to 56 seats, most of the gains coming from seats formerly held by SLab, thus making it impossible for Lab to achieve an OM in the HoC, and thereby ensuring that Con would be the dominant ruling party for years to come. Get over it.

  23. PT Barnum vs Albert Steptoe

    Wilkins Micawber vs Arthur Schopenhauer

    What a choice.

  24. Age breaks from latest YG:

    CON lead over LAB (-ve = LAB lead)

    18-24: -34
    25-49: -6
    49-64: +23
    65+: +48

    LDEM VI are fairly smooth across the age demographics (mean=15%, range 14-16%)
    Best to use Scottish only poll or the YG regional polling to see SNP VI
    are skewed to the YOUNGNATS (aka “Bravehearts”)

    NB those age buckets are nowhere near equal, the % weights (from the weighted numbers) are

    18-24: 11%
    25-49: 42%
    49-64: 24%
    65+: 23%

    NB Different polling companies and the Electoral Commission use different age break buckets. IMO you do want to see 18-24 as it’s own bucket (as their are some seats where that group is hugely important – uni towns!) but putting 25-49 all in one bucket makes it trickier to see what is going on there.

  25. David Carrod,

    “History is written by those who hang heroes.”

    Robert the Bruce

    Peter.

  26. As said, any decision about Scottish Independence from the UK is a decision entirely for the Scots. Can you imagine the reaction if England wanted a vote on separating from the UK and the Scots refused to allow it to happen? It’s an ill thought through and unsustainable position.

    The same applies to not allowing a referendum on the eventual deal that is negotiated for leaving the EU. Under the current WA we have no way of knowing what that deal might eventually be, just that we’re leaving with an empty void ahead. A referendum on a deal would need a number of important issues settled and known before voting.

  27. Mr Bumble v Bob Cratchit

  28. Gradgrind v Ms Havisham

  29. Winston Smith v Big Brother.

  30. TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER

    Both have been decided, Scotland voted to stay in the UK and the UK voted to leave the EU.

  31. The Other [email protected]: Both have been decided, Scotland voted to stay in the UK and the UK voted to leave the EU.

    That’s settled then. Until people decide again.

  32. @ Statgeek

    “She would have wiped the floor with them”

    You’ve put a horrible image in my head now, JC & BJ each tied to a very large broom handle with Sturgeon laughing hysterically as she sweeps her kitchen floor with them. Perhaps she rides off on it later :|}

    No, she’d have them eating little ugly beasties by the dozen.

  33. Re: IndyRef2

    In 2014, Salmond used the “once in a generation” line to shake a few more votes from the undecideds i.e. it’s now or never. But if IndyRefs are every few years, and everyone knows that, then won’t voters think “why take the risk to go Indy in Ref2 when conditions may be better in Ref3 in the next Parliament”?

    Re: Leaders debate

    Very disappointing not being able to hear both men develop arguments. They were only allowed a few seconds each before being interrupted. I would prefer them to have had the leeway to either land proper punches, or, hang themselves. Otherwise what is the point of the debate?

    Re: GE19 – local factors

    I live in a constituency with a solid Lab majority who last Parliament had a well-liked non-partisan MP but who has been forced out and replaced by a Momentum activist. Maybe it will have no effect, but it will certainly be interesting to see whether hardline activist candidates keep (or even improve upon) their vote share or whether the centrist majority disapproves. Perhaps there are too many big issues this time around to worry about actual candidates.

  34. TOH

    ” I will be certainly reading and comparing the Tory and Labour manifestoes.”

    Why? What possible difference will that make to your decision of which party to vote for?

  35. Labour would be correct to support Indy Referendum after 3 years of Govt in any deals with the SNP. Another referendum and a Remain decision would be the only thing likely to change Vote Intentions in Scotland back to what they were before the first referendum. Without 40 odd MP’s in Scotland it is nearly impossible for Labour to get Westminster Majority.

  36. @JimJam/John33

    You may be right about the both the wisdom and calculation of Corbyn’s tactics in the debate last night, and whilst I thought that he could have been more assertive and combative, I did add the caveat that the non-aligned and undecided voters, those giving the election its first real look last night, might be attracted to his refusal to slug it out personally with Johnson. Only time will tell and maybe he will fine tune his style for the second debate. He does need to be more forensic though and it’s perfectly possible to be so whilst continuing to eschew personal attacks. Does he possess those debating skills, however?

    I’ve mentioned him before in my UKPR blogging career, but I have a farmer friend who is a politico too. He owns about 100 acres with his brothers and is a poultry, sheep and arable farmer. He’s very much of the left politically, certainly now having once dabbled with a Thatcher vote in 1979 and been ever remorseful since! He lives not far from me but just over the constituency border in Stratford. It’s a very safe Tory seat, although we used to laugh with each other when the old Tory MP Alan Howarth defected to Blair’s Labour in 1995 and the rural Tory masses in that part of North Warwickshire had to stomach a Labour MP for a couple of years! To give you an idea how safe it is for the Tories, John Maples won it with a majority of 14,000 in Blair’s landslide of 1997!
    Accordingly, my friend has a vote that doesn’t really count and normally casts it for the Lib Dem candidate in Stratford, more token gesture than anything else. He’s not a Corbyn fan and is very pro-Remain, despairing angrily of Corbyn’s strangulated Brexit policy. However, he fears a Johnson premiership more and another Tory government for five years. He doesn’t really know what to do.

    Last night, he wrote me this e.mail shortly after the TV debate: –

    “…..Jacob Rees Mogg etc etc etc . Just watched the awful debate where Corbyn failed to pull the trigger as usual. He is too nice and it is not working. What also a price he is paying for not having a Remain policy on Europe. I fear all is lost, I shall have to learn to become more selfish, greedy and obsessed with money. Other wise I might end up as a member of the deserving poor.”

    Emotional, visceral even, but it touches on the desperation people feel about the nations prospects and the inadequacy of our current political leadership. My friend, a wealthy man materially, is politically homeless and, under FPTP, just about powerless too.

  37. Back to the Future GE?

    Set the dial and pick your team:

    LDEM back to 2010
    LAB back to 1970
    CON back to 1870
    SNP back to 1670
    Green back to 10,000 BC

    ;)

  38. @Pete B
    J S-B
    “Fifth day in a row that politicians fail to get the front page with two giant newspapers.”
    Does anyone read newspapers any more?
    …………..………………………………
    Radio and TV producers who set the news agenda.
    People see the front and back pages others are reading. Multiplies power of front page.
    Petrol stations all seem to have front pages prominent.

  39. Jo’s plan:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/plan

    BIG new policy announcment is that they will replace Ofsted with an Office for Standards in Education ;)

    Waiting for the the fine detail but I doubt they’ll have anything worth poaching as they’ve gone for LAB-lite, Green-lite and CON 2010. Basically a single issue party with an attempt to not alienate anyone.

    zzz ZZZ

    @ TOH – Green’s launched their manifesto y’day. A few good bits in there (see comments on last thread) but 90% bonkers unilateral stuff that would crash the economy and hence never actually be implemented. They even seem to have dropped the broad 3% VAT hike that would have partially paid for some of the better ideas.

  40. PeteB
    Fewer people read newspapers than 2017, and 2015. Far fewer than 1992.
    But they still pack a punch on the front pages in setting the TV and radio news bulletin agenda.
    Online newspaper stories drive social media.
    If politicians are not getting 90% in a GE campaign of top few stories, then public not being 90% conditioned drip-drip-drip.
    Opinion polls used to be the front pages.
    If politics is not on the front because of other stories, then any political cut through for any policy, gaffe or narrative is muted.
    No one is inspiring.
    No one has any new policies to game change from 2017 (yet) and if they do, no one outside the most engaged will hear them.
    Public groaning.
    Royals demanding news coverage during GE. And then came the man who eats up news coverage Jose! Front and back page news coverage. He normally dominates it the first weekends back in the English game.
    Now if he were Lib Dem leader, then the VI would shift in 24 hours.

  41. @ davidcarrod

    “Battle of Culloden (1746): You lost. Get over it.”

    The Jacobites in Great Britain lost as 1745 was an attempt to restore the Stuart monarchy to the British throne.

  42. Tabs for YG’s “leader’s debate” poll are up and show the partisan bias:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8f9hdjddcr/Internal_Debate_191119_w.pdf

    (note by 2:1 folks preferred the 2-way debate to “more leaders”, that differs to pre-debate polling – partially due the wording of the question but possibly as if it is “frustrating” with 2 then what would it be like with 7?)

    PB have a decent write-up about the “non-event”

    http://www.politicalbetting.com/

  43. David Carrod
    JSB ‘Have the wider public in the key marginals?’
    Unlikely. Lots of chatter in the pub tonight about programmes people were recording, or intending to get on catch up, including I’m a Celeb, Gold Digger, and the football.
    Not one person mentioned the leaders’ debate.
    …………………………………
    Spot on. You nailed it.

    Plus Jose back in town. Maybe Mauricio to Arsenal or Man United. Sack race arriving late this year but gets lead item on news for 24 hours when big names get axed.
    TV shows are steamrollers now unlike May/June.
    Now add Slade, Roy Wood to the pubs and the Christmas mood.
    Plus Meghan Markle dominated news coverage late November and early December at Christmas charity events and parties. Watch for the dresses made by that designer whose first name is Oscar.
    The politicians may be being squeezed out.
    Will it affect VI and turnout?
    Will the weather?
    Is Stephen Bush right. Leave will prioritise Leave. Remain will not prioritise Remain.
    Hence Conservative lead. Lib Dem poor show. Labour not yet squeezing the Lib Dem pips. Brexit may divide Leave vote in North-East but may take out big Labour leads.
    BTW Corbyn has two big cards.
    1. Resign and put up a clean face. Moves VI.
    2. Admit he is going early next year even if he wins. He will not be PM so his character and baggage are irrelevant. Vote Labour not vote Corbyn.
    In fact his so-so debate performance will mean he does not play either card. So the debate reception may finish Labour where a humiliating thumping could have given them the chance to play either of the big cards.
    Learn from football.
    Mauricio out ruthlessly. Jose in. Spurs fans mood transformed.

  44. Debate polling tables are out. Interesting perhaps that although Johnson ‘won’ 51-49, the people who are waiting until closer to the time before deciding who to vote for gave Corbyn the win 59-41. Whether this translates through into polling remains to be seen – FWIW, this group is about 25% the size of the people who are definitely voting for a certain party. Corbyn had big wins amongst the ‘waiting closer to the time’ for being in touch with ordinary people (69-18), the NHS (66-25) and being trustworthy (54-25) but still lost on prime ministerial (48-27) and brexit (58-28). Which ones matter the most though? Looking more widely, Corbyn’s loss on Brexit was down to remainers only giving him the win on that topic 45-39 while Johnson won amongst the leavers by 87-9. Perhaps not surprising given Corbyns non-committal answer.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8f9hdjddcr/Internal_Debate_191119_w.pdf

  45. This FactCheck thing seems to come from the same school of brilliance as the Boris Bus. A good way to generate negative headlines and look deceitful.

    Hardly anyone would have seen it. But lots of people will be thinking, “That’s just wrong.”

    It is not as if any sensible person believes in independent fact checking anyway. Anything that isn’t utterly black and white is affected by bias.

    If the Tories had bothered to notice, Labour has been going all out on trust issues. So doing this is like bowling full toss to Ben Stokes.

  46. Interesting comments from Iain Gray about the idea of a Scottish referendum on Independence in 2021.

  47. The Indyref was lost on the petard of lack of agreed detail, enabling remain to muddy the waters of what might, or might not happen in the event of independence. Strategically the UK government didn’t want to negotiate in advance as that lends credence to leave.
    The same occurred with the EUref where nobody wanted to ‘waste’ time in advance setting up a deal that might never be used. That allowed the lack of certainty and definition to be exploited by leave and led to the ongoing search for a definioption

  48. @JSB

    Mauricio out ruthlessly. Jose in. Spurs fans mood transformed.

    As a Spurs fan, cannot say bring Jose in has improved my mood.

    Never liked the way his teams played.
    His recent stint at Man U shows he is yesterday’s man.
    Always enjoyed his post match interviews but only to laugh at him.

  49. TO

    “That’s settled then. Until people decide again.”

    Glad we can agree, no doubt Scotland will vote again at some time in the future, and once we have left the EU there may be a strong desire to rejoin at some time in the future (although personally I doubt that), and new referendums will be held.

  50. @DAVID CARROD

    “The concept of a ‘more equal’ society, as set out in The Sprit Level, and by many posters on UKPR as well as various political parties in all polities, is an admirable sentiment, but one which just won’t work in practice.”

    David – are you sure you have actually read this book? It’s not a utopian vision book. 95% of it is comparing different countries in terms of how equal/unequal they are. It turns out that the UK is very unequal compared with other developed countries, except the USA.

    It also points out that inequality in these countries is correlated with: high prison populations, high levels of mental bad health, high teenage pregnancies, high crime, low social mobility, bad health/obesity etc.

    Other developed countries are much more equal than the UK and suffer less from the social problems mentioned above. Just facts.

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