At the weekend we had a positive glut of national polls. In the last couple of days they’ve been joined by London and Wales polls from YouGov.

The Welsh poll for ITV Wales has Westminster voting intentions of CON 28%(-1), LAB 29%(+4), LDEM 12%(-4), BREX 15%(+1), Plaid 12%(nc). Changes are since mid-October, and show Labour retaking the lead over the Conservatives in Wales. While recent movement is in Labour’s favour, compared to the result at the 2017 general election these would be terrible figures for Labour. Compared to the shares of the vote in the 2017 general election in Wales the Conservatives are down six points, Labour are down twenty(!) points, the Liberal Democrats up seven, Plaid up two. So while the Tories are losing support, the slump in Labour support would likely result in many Labour seats falling to the Tories. As ever, Roger Awan-Scully has more in depth analysis here.

The YouGov London poll for Queen Mary University London shows similar dynamics in the capital. Current vote shares are CON 29%, LAB 39%, LDEM 19%, BREX 6%. Compared to the 2017 general election results in London that represents a drop of four points for the Conservatives, a drop of sixteen for Labour, an increase of ten for the Liberal Democrats. While the Conservatives are losing support, the large scale movement of voters from Labour to the Liberal Democrats may well win them a significant number of seats. It is a reminder that while people have been looking towards the more “leave-inclined” Labour seats in the North and Midlands for potential Tory gains, it is perfectly possible for them to win in more remain-inclined seats where they are losing support, so long as Labour are losing more support.

How it actually translates in terms of seats is difficult to know (especially in a city as politically diverse as London, where the dynamics of the race may be radically different in the inner-city seats, the leafy Lib Dem-Con marginals of South-West London and the more typical Con-Lab marginals in North London). Over the last few days we’ve also seen a drip-drip of constituency polls by Survation, primarily conducted for the Liberal Democrat party. So far they have published polls for South East Cambridgeshire (showing an 11 point Tory lead, a Con>LD swing of 11.5%), North East Somerset(a 16 point Tory lead, a Con>LD swing of 15%), Portsmouth South(a 3 point Lib Dem lead, a Lab>LD swing of 15%) and Cambridge (a 9 point Lib Dem lead, a Lab>LD swing of 16%). Obviously they all show the Lib Dems doing well, but I would urge some caution in their interpretation, as I would with any political party commissioned polls. It is impossible to know how many constituency opinion polls the Liberal Democrats have commissioned, so it’s perfectly possible that they have commissioned another ten, twenty, thirty constituency polls in seats where they weren’t doing quite so well, and choose never to publish them. We’re probably only seeing the constituency polls that the Lib Dems want us to see.

Finally, while I am not going to update with every individual national poll – the best way of looking at voting intention polls will always be to look at the broad trend – I’ll just update with those we’ve seen since my last post.

There is a new ICM poll for Reuters, the first of a regular series for the election campaign. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 15%, BREX 9%, GRN 3%. Fieldwork was over the weekend. It’s been almost a month since the last ICM poll (their regular voting intention polls seemed to peter out somewhat after Martin Boon left to set up Deltapoll), so changes since their last poll aren’t really relevant. This poll got some attention from the single digit Labour lead, though given the paucity of ICM polling in the last year we can’t really tell if that’s movement, or just ICM’s methodology.

Secondly there was a new YouGov poll for the Times. Topline figures were CON 38%(-1), LAB 25%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc), BREX 11%(+4), GRN 5%(+1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from last Thurs-Fri. The YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend had some sharp movements: a six point increase for Labour, a six point drop for the Brexit party. Today’s poll partially reverses those changes, suggesting it was probably something of an outlier… though that means Labour are still four points up on the YouGov/Times poll last week.


529 Responses to “London, Welsh and Constituency polling”

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  1. Interesting, well written, blog item, AW.

  2. London gets its own poll : Wales gets its own poll – I’m feeling left out!

  3. I hope Scots law can again protect Carla Ponsati against the efforts of Nationalist Spain to extradite her for sedition.

  4. Surely there must be enough people out there who know how many polls the LDs commisioned for it to leak or couldn’t some TV journalist just ask them and we can draw our own conclusions by the answer?

    Also if they are releasing selective polls I would personally regard that as an election expense rather than simply providing public information were they to publish all of them.

  5. Anthony.
    Thanks very much for all your work here.

  6. @Reggie (previous thread)

    “The blame for the tragedy lies squarely with the those responsible for managing the tower and the contractors.”

    And whoever signed off on the safety inspections (including anyone in local government and/or the Fire Brigade, if applicable).

  7. Need to get active folks.

    It was a Welsh poll thread back in 2015 that recieved only 7 posts and remains (to my knowledge) the shortest ever thread on UKPR.

    A few more posts please, otherwise our Welsh friends will feel like they are unravelling.

    @Turk (fpt) – “He still continues with the lie of the Tories are about to sell of the NHS then he waffles on how it’s going to cost the tax payer 500 million a week for something the Tories and Trump have said are not on the table.”

    I’m tempted to ask whether you would be happier if they doctored a video of Johnson to make it look like he wanted to sell off the NHS?

    Perhaps worth noting that the £500m a week figure isn’t actually anything to do with ‘selling off’ the NHS. It’s a simple calculation of what the extra cost would be if the NHS paid the same as the US system for drugs. Using a straight multiplier, averaged out, the figure is accurate, in those circumstances.

    We know (because it is a stated aim of US government policy) that the US wants a US/UK trade deal to include measures to end lower price US drugs for the NHS, so such a figure isn’t perhaps as outlandish as you think. However, it is unlikely that price rises would apply to all drugs used by the NHS if ever such a deal was made.

    Perhaps, in the interests on non-partisanship, we could agree a compromise figure that would be fair to use?

    How abut £350m a week?

  8. While Rees Mogg just about gets away with his Grenfell comments, given his apology, Andrew Bridgen just helped to dig the Conservative hole ever deeper.

    His attempts to soothe on R4 were far more contemptible that the original comments, openly saying that because Smogg is clever he wouldn’t have died in the fire.

    Wow.

    I mean, just wow. These people…..

  9. “The YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend had some sharp movements: a six point increase for Labour, a six point drop for the Brexit party. Today’s poll partially reverses those changes, suggesting it was probably something of an outlier…”

    —————-

    Unless today’s poll is an outlier.

  10. York Outer LD leaflet

    https://twitter.com/quiscustodis/status/1191208206023962625/photo/1

    There would seem to be a danger for the LDs that this tactic simply makes them look ridiculous.

  11. Shevii

    Well, as for the LibDems’ quarter of a century presentation technique of voting patterns, intentions and reality…

    https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2329557203833789&id=100003385950509&set=a.231740103615520&source=48&ref=bookmarks

  12. Carfrew

    “Unless today’s poll is an outlier.”

    Some unkind soul (possibly me) is bound to point out that some of the LD “polls” are out-and-out-liers.

  13. In Wales, we’ve heard details of the Remain Alliance agreement, though opinions in Wales seem to vary as to its effects.

    Nothing (so far as I know) has been heard of any Leaver Alliance pact. Presumably, if any such deal was made, it would be made in London, and Wales simply informed of the decision.

  14. @Oldnat

    Still not heard what the Wales Alliance agreement is. I suspect the sticking point is Ceredigion.

    Personally, I’m not of the opinion that Plaid Cymru gain much from it and it will make no effective difference to their seat tally.

    It may just sneak Brecon and Radnorshire for the LDs, but I suspect their activists in Ceredigion have told them what’s what when it comes to Plaid!

  15. TURK

    You are wasting your breath here in the Labour Ministry of Truth.

    Wait till they are in power. Orwell will smile knowingly.

  16. JiB

    Is there any need for a “pact” in Ceredigion?

    Unless there is an unexpected rise in VI for one of the Leaver (including Labour) parties, then a Remainer MP will be elected.

  17. Trying to be objective and fair, as regards daily media performance/coverage in England, I think:
    Conservative poor. Very poor in London.
    Brexit reasonable.
    Labour much better than expected (and no infighting)
    Lib Dem have created a news event with the court case legal challenge to ITV.
    Big Jo may cut through but jury is still out.
    BTW Chukka looks in his element as a Lib Dem. Hard to believe he was ever anything else.
    Narrative not in place for either of the parties.
    If TV debates become multi-party, then Farage or Big Jo could land a big punch on the two market leaders.

    I will ask my postman tomorrow what is the truth about the postal dispute. Hot issue if rumours true.
    This December 12th election still smacks of Waterloo for someone. Who is Wellington? Who Napoleon?
    My instinct is a tightening of the polls and the non-postal voters making their minds up late in the campaign.
    All to play for.

  18. @Oldnat

    Imagine if the Lib Dems beat the Tories by a thousand in B&R, and Plaid lose Ceredigion by the same.

    There will be consequences if Plaid also have a bad night on Anglesey and maybe Labour surge in Arfon.

  19. J S-B

    “Who is Wellington? Who Napoleon?”

    Much more importantly – who is von Blücher?

  20. @Oldnat

    I am confused. Are you based in Scotland or Wales ?

  21. @JONATHAN STUART-BROWN

    What’s with the “Big Jo” thing? Is it a meme I’ve missed, or a soubriquet you’ve applied yourself?

  22. Compared to the last GE, these two polls seem OK for Tories/ Nats, quite good for the Lib Dems and utterly abysmal for Corbynite Labour. Just when is everybody expecting the #Jeremypollsurge to begin?

  23. Colin

    The Labour policy is straight from animal farm ,like the pigs said ,all animals are equal but some are more equal than others.

  24. JiB

    “Imagine if” – You sound like a Lib-Dem pollster?

    Nothing is ever certain, but parties embarking on deals with others need to work out what they consider the likely consequences to be.

    If the priority is to elect the maximum number of Remain MPs (as in SF’s strategy in NI) then MPs of parties you don’t much like (but which are less execrable than others) will be elected in some seats, but won’t be taking some possible seats from you in others.

    That can be done via actual pacts to stand down, or just fielding paper candidates (as Unionist parties in Scotland often do – being relatively unconcerned as to which party beats the SNP).

    Politics is always about priorities – and increasing your own party’s numbers is only one of those.

  25. J S-B

    I doubt it is news to anyone that you are confused.

  26. @Rob Sheffield.

    Labour were 10 points behind on wales at the beginning of the last election. Would need to check on London but it should come as no surprise. Given that parliament won’t be dissolved until midnight, it might be fair to wait a bit before seeing any surge in Labour VI, but I expect we will some movement. It actually took Labour a few weeks into the 2017 campaign before the dial started to move.

  27. It would be interesting if Labour are no longer dominant in Wales. It’s too late at night for me to bother looking it up, but I have the impression that they usually get the bulk of Welsh seats. UKIP still have some representatives in the Welsh Assembly I think (or ex-UKIP independents).

  28. Alec

    Nobody could ever accuse you of being non partisan that’s for sure.
    Have you applied for a job in the Labour Ministry of Truth I hear it’s going to be a huge (nationalised of course ) industry.

  29. @ Pete B

    I can’t see Labour recovering to their performance in Wales in 2017. Having said that, there are so many crazy permutations possible there that it is impossible to predict what impact there will be on seats.

  30. @OldNat

    I don’t know who Blucher is in this context, but if Corbyn is Wellington, then Blucher may well be Farage carrying out his flank attack.

    However, it does bring to mind one of my favourite folk songs (and the tune is magnificent, but I can’t transpose it on screen!). By the way, the history in the song isn’t all right: for a start, Ney did not betray Bonaparte, for gold or otherwise.

    The Grand conversation on Napoleon
    It was over that wild beaten track ’twas said a friend of Bonaparte’s
    Did pace the sands and the lofty rocks of St Helena’s shore,
    And the wind it blew a hurricane, the lightning fierce around did dart,
    The seagulls were a-shrieking and the waves around did roar.
    Ah hush, rude winds, the stranger cried, while I range the spot
    Where alas the gallant hero did his weary eyelids close.
    And though at peace his limbs do rest, his name will never be forgot.
    This grand conversation on Napoleon arose.

    Oh alas, he cried, why England did you persecute that hero bold?
    Much better had you slain him on the plains of Waterloo.
    For Napoleon he was a friend to heroes all, both young and old,
    He caused the money for to fly wherever he did go.
    When plans were forming night and day, the bold commander to betray,
    He said, I’ll go to Moscow and there I’ll ease my woes.
    And if fortune smiles on me that day, then all the world shall me obey,
    This grand conversation on Napoleon arose.

    Oh his men in thousands then did rise to conquer Moscow by surprise,
    He led his troops across the Alps oppressed by frost and snow,
    And being near the Russian land, he then began to open his eyes,
    For Moscow was a-blazing and the men drove to and fro.
    Napoleon dauntless viewed the plain and then in anguish at the same,
    He cried, Retreat me gallant men, for time so swiftly goes.
    Ah what thousands died in that retreat, some forced their horses for to eat.
    This grand conversation on Napoleon arose.

    At Waterloo they bravely fought, commanded by this Bonaparte,
    Field Marshall Ney did him betray, but he was bribed by gold.
    And when Blucher led the Prussians, it nearly broke Napoleon’s heart.
    He cried, my thirty thousand men are lost, and I am sold.
    He viewed the plain and cried, all’s lost, and then his favourite charger crossed,
    The plain was in confusion with blood and dying woes.
    And the bunch of roses did advance and boldly entered into France.
    This grand conversation on Napoleon arose.

    Oh, this Bonaparte was plann’d to be a prisoner across the sea,
    The rocks of St Helena, oh, it was his final spot.
    And as a prisoner there to be till death did end his misery.
    His son soon followed to the tomb: it was an awful plot.
    And long enough have they been dead, the blast of war around us spread,
    And may our shipping float again to face the daring foes.
    And now my boys when honour calls we’ll boldly mount those wooden walls.
    This grand conversation on Napoleon arose.

  31. Gee less than a week in and already we’re dropped the pretence of debating the issues and resorted to childish insults.

    I hope all you pseudo intellectuals are proud of yourselves.

    And a school night too!

    Peter.

  32. Gee less than a week in and already we’re dropped the pretence of debating the issues and resorted to childish insults.

    I hope all you pseudo intellectuals are proud of yourselves.

    And a school night too!

    Peter.

  33. “The Grand conversation on Napoleon” was meant to be underlined; it’s the song title.

  34. Well, well, well….he’s back at long last.

    The great Rob Sheffield. The man who reliably informed us in 2017 that had on the spot evidence that Nick Clegg was as safe as houses in Sheffield Hallam and, mark his very wise words, he saw no evidence of young people flocking to polling stations in that constituency.

    Then we heard no more of him. Gone, seemingly never to return but, thank the lord, he’s back and we can expect a whole raft of similar psephological gems between now and December 12th.

    I suspect he senses Corbyn blood in the water. The Robster Shark is on the rampage again and I have an ominous feeling that he and Big Col are going to form a formidable alliance. Big Col, the poor tortured political soul, is still thrashing away in that rather endearing way of his, searching for that ever elusive truth. He watched Corbyn this morning, dispassionately and objectively, but was obviously disappointed. He saw instead a Stasi-esque Labour Ministry of Truth. The search obviously goes on.

    Boy this is going to be fun. And there’s 5 more weeks to go.

    Bayonet fixed, I’m ready!

    :-)

  35. MOG

    Not quite rising to McGonigal’s heights of doggerel, but that does come close – but I’ll take your word that the tune transforms it into something worthy.

    In popular mythology, Wellington’s army is represented as “British” (and von Blücher’s Prussian army largely ignored), yet Wellington commanded a European army with units from Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Hanover, Brunswick and Nassau.

    So Corbyn as Wellington seems an unlikely metaphor.

  36. MOG

    I’ve also tried underlining – but usually get the HTML wrong, so it doesn’t appear. However, it was clear that that was the title.

  37. @oldnat

    “Some unkind soul (possibly me) is bound to point out that some of the LD “polls” are out-and-out-liers.”

    ———

    Well, click on Laszlo’s link immediately above your post if you need a little cheer about it all.

  38. Test

    If this works, I got it wrong last time. If it doesn’t, this site doesn’t accept the HTML tag for underline.

  39. On claims about US intentions regarding the NHS, this from todays NYT is interesting;

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/29/health/drug-shortages-generics.html?fallback=false&recId=334164506&locked=0&geoContinent=EU&geoRegion=HLD&recAlloc=control&geoCountry=GB&blockId=discovery-automated&imp_id=873936921&action=click&module=Science%20%20Technology&pgtype=Homepage

    It illustrates just how different the two systems are in function and political attitudes which without taking sides shows how difficult it could get.

    Peter.

  40. This site doesn’t accept the HTML tag for underline !

  41. @OldNat

    If you want to hear a snippet of the tune, you get 30 seconds for nothing on amazon: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B075H9GJNM/ref=dm_ws_sp_ps_dp

  42. MOG

    Thanks for testing the underline function.

    Also thanks for the link to the song. I only listened to one version of it, which unfortunately adopted the “nasal” sound – so common among folk singers last century!

    The history of the song is interesting though –

    http://www.folklorist.org/song/The_Grand_Conversation_on_Napoleon

    If that is accurate (which it may well not be) then references include the benefits to English commerce of fighting wars, and a touch of anti-Irish sentiment.

    I doubt you would approve of either!

  43. @OldNat

    As you surmise, I’m neither a militarist nor a racist (as a Jew, albeit lapsed, I’d be a hypocrite if I were).

    Thanks for the article, though I have a read it before: I’m a bit of a folksong freak! And I fully agree that the majority of recorded versions of the song do rather mangle a wonderful tune. The Dransfield version, though, is truly outstanding, and fully worth the 99p to download from Amazon.

  44. MOG

    Free on Amazon Prime (which I only pay through the nose for so that I can order certain desirable alcoholic beverages for Mrs Nat).

    Having been brought up on a mixture of songs sung round the piano at family gatherings, I was wholly unable to distinguish between “actual” Scots folk songs, Burns songs, and schmaltzy Scots music hall songs, until I started going to folk clubs as a student.

    Pentangle were my introduction to “English” folk music – though how genuine they were, I don’t know.

    It’s all a lot more interesting than this election though! :-)

  45. Since everyone seems to be delighted to talk of war (Napoleon, bayonets etc.), I thought I’d share some recent thoughts.

    I’ve been listening to the audio book of the Second World War by Anthony Beevor. At around 40 hours, it’s a great companion when doing something non-cerebral, and want some background noise.

    Beevor mentioned that in the period between the Spanish Civil War and 1939, and especially around Munich, politicians such as Churchill were labelled war mongers for warning of the rise of confidence in the fascist states (Germany, Italy and Spain in case you had forgotten; yes let’s use that collective term for all of them for now).

    It got me to thinking of how politicians, like voters, see what they want to see, and politicians who are liberal with the truth suddenly expect to be believed when it really matters, and are not. And there’s always a willing politician there to call a truth the opposite.

    So then I thought of which current political leader I would believe if they told me the country had to go to war. Frankly, I’d struggle to believe any of the three main parties of England, given past excuses for wars and other misdemeanours, and the current lack of truth.

    Thatcher had a handy war (politically) at just the right time. I can’t imagine the current population swallowing any war from the current lot (other than the gung-ho types, who always enjoy someone else fighting their wars).

    Do I worry that we’re moving to more right-wing nations with two CVs available for power projection? Against who? And will Boris be responsible with them? I doubt it.

    #JustSharingThoughts

  46. @Mog

    Testing:

    Underline: underline
    Bold: bold
    Strike: strike
    Italics: italics
    Small: Small

    List:
    list item 1
    list item 2

    Horizontal line (doubt it):

    I was going to try tables, but why bother. It’s a forum, not a techsite. Now let’s see what works…

  47. Ok, so bold, italics and strike. The rest, nope.

  48. Anthony. A quick question. How do pollsters deal with Don’t Know answers? Do they dig a bit to see if DKS are DK between for example Con/Brexit or LD/Lab wavers. In that sense an answer DK is not an across the board unknown but a hesitation on one side of the divide. I suspect Lab and LD are particularly depressed in the top line figures as I suspect many on the Remain side are waiting to see if Lab or the LDS have the best chance of winning their particular constituency campaign?

  49. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “Gee less than a week in and already we’re dropped the pretence of debating the issues and resorted to childish insults.”

    Didn’t you spit your dummy out and throw insults at me when I (continually) rang rings around you?

  50. @DANNY (from previous thread)

    DANNY

    The cladding that was used on Grenfell tower was not used in accordance with the manufacturer’s guidelines: that it is not suitable for use above heights of 10 to 15 metres because of the fire risk.

    “What the regulations say
    Building Regulation part B in England requires that all insulation and filler materials – a term that is not defined – in the wall of a high-rise building are of limited combustibility. The ACM panels do not fulfil the role of insulation and have no particular insulative properties. It is commonly argued, then, that they are not fillers. This confusion and the resulting loophole in the regulations mean that polyethylene core ACMs have been used on high-rise buildings ostensibly in compliance with Building Regulation B, as is the case at Grenfell Tower.

    Approved Document 7 of the Building Regulations requires that: “Materials are of a suitable nature and quality in relation to the purposes and conditions of their use.” This fitness-for-purpose is not well defined in the regulations. However, the manufacturers of ACM state that the PE version is not suitable for use above ten to 15 metres on a building because of its fire risk and also make mineral core alternatives that are suitable.”

    https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-the-type-of-cladding-used-on-grenfell-tower-actually-banned-in-britain-79803

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