A very quick update on voting intention polls over the last few weeks. As usual August is a relatively quiet period – opinion pollsters have holidays too. The fact that we have a new Prime Minister hasn’t made much change to that. In August so far we’ve had five voting intention polls:

BMG/Independent (Dates TBC) – CON 31%, LAB 25%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN ?
ComRes/Telegraph (11th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 27%, LDEM 16%, BREX 16%, GRN 4% (tabs)
Survation (11th Aug) – CON 28%, LAB 24%, LDEM 21%, BREX 15%, GRN 3% (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (9th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 16%, GRN 5% (tabs)
YouGov/Times (6th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 22%, LDEM 21%, BREX 14%, GRN 7% (tabs)

Note that the BMG tables aren’t up yet, hence I don’t know the level of support for the Greens or their fieldwork dates. These polls continue to show the boost in Conservative party support following Boris Johnson’s accession filtering though. It is the first “Post-Johnson” poll for BMG and Survation, and they show the Conservatives up by 3 and 5 points respectively. We’re now at a point where the most recent polls from all the regular polling companies show the Conservatives back ahead, though the size of their lead differs given the variation in figures between pollsters.

Normally I would be speculating about how long the government’s honeymoon boost would last. It’s not really the case here given how many political events are going to be crammed into the next few months. Events will likely preempt its natural unwinding: whatever diplomatic negotiations or stand offs occur between the government and the EU (starting with the G7 meeting this week), whatever Parliamentary moves there may be against the government or against No Deal, the party conferences, whatever preparations or announcements there may be on No Deal and, of course, the actual outcome at the end of October. The current levels of party support seem rather irrelevant in the face of that – the Conservatives are probably happy to have a lead at the moment, but there are ten weeks ahead of us that are packed with events that can throw everything up in the air.


1,511 Responses to “Voting Intention Update”

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  1. @PeterW: ‘To follow precedent without demur.’

    There are, I suspect, very few precedents for a Privy Council meeting being held on anything other than a predictable schedule of dates; precisely zero precedents for the Privy Council recommending to Her Majesty a course of action whose lawfulness is widely known to be sub judice before one of Her Majesty’s courts; and not very many precedents for a Privy Council meeting to be held with none of the Privy Counsellors present having any qualifications in law, and in a location many hundreds of miles from the offices of the Palace’s own lawyers.

  2. STATGEEK

    “Like it or not, the monarchy is going to have less supporters after this. “A rather expensive tourist attraction”, I think someone described it as earlier.”

    Well, it’s an ill wind as they say ;-)

  3. Valerie

    “If our democracy is being debased and is in decline then, at some point, it must have been purer. When exactly was the pinnacle for our democracy institutions – how many years ago?”

    I’m with carfrew on this – 1997 to 2008 […]

  4. @hdan “Well – one could, at a pinch, argue that the Claim of Right, along with a handful of other Acts of the Old Scottish Parliament, was incorporated into English Law by section 2 of the Union with Scotland Act 1706. It would be clearer, one way or the other, if eighteenth-century draftspeople had known about commas.”

    The Claim of Right seems to be straight-forwardly considered standing legislation in its own right by parliament, see link.

  5. Just read the summary of Johnson’s tv interviews and, with regret, can see that it will all sound very convincing to those who wish to be convinced.

    Even more sadly, in Corbyn’s brief interview in Scotland, which I watched on TV, he came over as evasive, and totally lacking in clarity or persuasiveness, when asked a simple “what next/VONC etc?” question.

    Despite being with him on the principles I had no idea what he meant at the end and he actually just gave the impression that he wanted to scurry into the building asap.

    Whatever qualities he does have, thinking on his feet just doesn’t seem to be one of them.

  6. @SDA

    “It’s interesting to compare the performance of two current Parliamentary Petitions.
    The anti prorogue Parliament one, which could be said to be Remain Plus, is almost 1.6m and putting on about 6,000 an hour.
    The pro No Deal Brexit one, which could be said to be Leave Minus, has 0.3m signatories and is putting on 1,300 an hour.
    Is that a reflection of the strength of feeling in the country? I’m sure there will be some Leave voters outraged at the government’s tactics but I can also see that there’ll be Leave voters who don’t want No Deal.
    That’s 84% anti proroguing and 16% For No Deal. Surely no government can seriously go ahead with that sort of co-relation?”

    Sorry, that’s a ridiculous assertion.

  7. VALERIE

    If you’re interested in listening to the 5 Sumption lectures, they’re available as MP3s at https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00729d9/episodes/downloads

  8. DANNY

    “If that is the case, then the monarch should not exist at all. The powers should be plainly and directly vested in the PM. If anyone sees a problem with that, so that they should be vested in someone else, then that other person has to have freedom to accept or refuse to act.”

    That’s the nail hit squarely on the head. Of course that should be the case. You’ll get no argument at all from me there. If one effect of this debacle is to persuade others of this it won’t be entirely wasted. But wishing don’t make it so.

  9. @Rand D

    “Even more sadly, in Corbyn’s brief interview in Scotland, which I watched on TV, he came over as evasive, and totally lacking in clarity or persuasiveness, when asked a simple “what next/VONC etc?” question.”

    I keep saying this, and the Labour Remainers do not like it…

    Labour should sit on their hands over Brexit and let the Tories get their deal. Just abstain. The Tories then own Brexit, they’ll hate the reality of compromise and Labour can then just present the Norway model as a viable long term solution.

    Win a VoNC? People vs Parliament = Tory Landslide. 5 years of austerity and regression.

  10. @Valerie: ‘If our democracy is being debased and is in decline then, at some point, it must have been purer. When exactly was the pinnacle for our democracy institutions – how many years ago?’

    After the coming into force of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010, before the coming into force of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?

    (The latter _should_, in its intent, have actually enhanced our democracy, but as we’re now discovering, it has ended up damaging our democracy due to its poor drafting.)

  11. On the sunset of democracy.

    (Without ideological bias) Gramsci’s concept of hegemony is rather appropriate to contextualize the rise of populism.

    The hegemony of the Western politics of 1945-75 got into crisis with the ineffectiveness of the Keynesian state intervention (staglation). From 1978 in the US (New Zealand a bit earlier, UK from 1979, France from 1986, Germany from 1995, etc) chose to preserve the hegemony through liberalisation. It remained quite strong in spite of issues such as diminishing rate of return, financialisation, increasing inequality and so on until the great recession which eliminated the means of state intervention of 1978-2008.

    Unlike the 1978 turn, this time the hegemony is undermined both from the right and the quasi-left, essentially using the same rhetoric and essentially using the same proposition for the same enemy (the hegemony of the 1978-2008). While there are echoes of the Weimar Republic, it is actually a false analogy as there is no left-wing populism today. Left-wing ideas are so so marginal, probably a couple of hundred thousand people in the developed countries (but we have a dawn even from one sun, so who knows) that makes it possible for the.centre to incorporate elements of populism.

    So, it is probably an incremental (quantitative) change. However, a lot depends on the next recession, and also on the short term effects of the technological revolution (watching our robotic hoover…)

  12. @Carfrew

    I now get your point over integration. No doubt some of the mutual incomprehension is tribal. However, the differences may also be to do with what integration might mean. I don’t want to integrate with the US because of fears about the NHS, food standards etc. I quite like being integrated in certain respects with the EU because their standards are partly designed to avoid a race to the bottom in terms of workers rights, welfare for animals etc.

    A different point is made by BRXT who seems to have taken something you wrote as mine. He is more fearful of integration with the EU because he sees it as 100 per cent certain if we stay in, whereas he sees the chance of our becoming a 51st state as 5%. Personally I think it all depends on what one means by integration. I would see the chance of becoming fully absorbed into a European or US state as effectively zero. For some purposes, however, we are integrated with US (for example, I doubt we could use our ‘independent’ deterrent without their agreement. In other respects we are more integrated with Europe. You pays your money and you takes your choice..

  13. Three contributors on WATO, across two separate discussions, have just made the same telling point. That the fundamental pillar of our system is that the PM acts with the confidence of the House.

    And there it is in a nutshell. The PM still has this. Because the House won’t take it away from him. Nor can it agree on making him do something else instead. Because of a perfect storm of competing circumstances the majority that probably wants to stop him simply won’t do so. It hasn’t yet. I’ve always believed it never will. I still do.

    I repeat my view that this is a political crisis of the HoC’s making. No one is stopping them but they themselves.

  14. @ SDA, Pete B, JiB

    Completely agree with Pete B and JiB that theses petitions are no way to measure anything, that’s why we have polling. So would be far more interested in your take on YouGov’s report that I already highlighted yesterday. Talking about polling is what this is meant to be about!

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/29/search-median-voter-brexit

    I think JiB should find this comforting at least, as one interpretation is that a ‘soft-Brexit’ (ie CU+SM) is the most acceptable solution. (I hesistate to say popular, nothing is really popular.) Of course it’s probably also the least likely to happen, as the article points out.

  15. Yes, yougov and other polling has shown several times that some sort of EEA style deal is the ‘least disliked’ outcome.

  16. I note that in the Yougov table all the options have a negative score. The public as a whole, like parliament, knows what it doesn’t want better than what it does want.

    Quite ironic considering that many individuals have very strong feelings either way.

  17. PETE B

    The real problem for Johnson is that a no deal departure will not be welcomed by most who were conned by leave campaign promises.

    Perhaps actually letting it happen would be best as it would kill both the Cons and the Brexit Party Limited stone dead.

    We also know that the Cons have provided no details of how to avoid a hard border, which will guarantee no US trade deal.

    Perhaps letting it happen is the only way to draw the venom of the gutter press, if the HoC deliver a no confidence vote a month or two into the disaster.

  18. @PeteB

    “I don’t know what I want, and I’m adamant on that. You’ll not shift me into knowing what I want.”

    Python-esc

  19. BARBAZENZERO

    “If the HoC deliver a no confidence vote a month or two into the disaster.”

    We’re speculating about 20 steps ahead now but if it happens the basis for any no confidence majority, such as it is, evaporates.

    Neither Con Remain MPs nor those elsewhere who dislike Corbyn have any reason to vote for one any more. And if it’s a disaster Cons have even less reason to.

  20. Pete W,

    Like you I have hitherto believed that insufficient Tory MPs would be willing to in effect end their political careers, at least in the Conservative Party.

    However, I think that this latest act may embolden some more and I expect significant actions next week obviating the need, for now at least, for a VONC to be called.

    Whether enough in the final analysis when the crunch comes? Maybe still not but more chance of it than before for sure.

  21. Good afternoon all from a warm sunny and bit cloudy Winchester.

    Came back yesterday from our holiday to Bermuda so I’ve been catching up on the political big news events today.

    Woooff…It’s all happening in Scotland…Wee Ruth doing a bolt from the Tory leadership. She hates BoJo so no matter how she dresses it up we all know it’s the BoJo that made her bolt and not only that, Ruth Davidson’s party faces wipe out in Scotland so she’s just jumping ship before the inevitable tartan rampage at the hands of the SNP.

    The council house Tories in Scotland might stick with her (depending on her Sevco do on Sunday against Celtic) but they big rosy cheek farmers and rural voters look like flocking back to the SNP.

    I also see the SNP gave the Lib/Dems a smashed face on Shetland. Again the Lib’Dems and the fake MSM in Scotland will dress this up as SNP failure but the truth is simple..The SNP have been in power for 10 years yet despite the Lib/Dems surging across the rest of the UK,a strong pro remain message and a new (Scottish born leader) their percentage of the vote share plummeted like a puffin with no wings falling off Sumburgh Head.

    The wee party has no momentum in Scotland and wee Willie must be confused as to why?

  22. PETERW

    Perhaps you are correct, but that relies on there being no honourable Con MPs.

    As an expat I have long been denied a vote and would never consider voting Con, but we have recently seen a few Cons who seem moderately honest.

  23. @TRIGUY

    “So would be far more interested in your take on YouGov’s report that I already highlighted yesterday. Talking about polling is what this is meant to be about!”
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/29/search-median-voter-brexit

    Interesting.

    I’d take issue with the way the analysis scores “acceptable compromise” as a zero.

    The net effect of the scoring system would be, at the absurd extremes, is to suggest that an option that 100% think is an acceptable compromise, which is a recipe for calm co-existance, is the same as one that 50% think is brilliant and 50% terrible, which is more like the recipe for civil war.

    We should see “acceptable” as a positve thing. That so many don’t, but merely want to win, is one reasone we are in our present predicament.

    Yet even with that flaw (as I see it) in the scoring, soft Brexit still comes joint top. It was always the right answer once the question had been asked (I would never have asked the question, but we are where we are). It’s a pity the extremists on both sides have largely taken it off the table.

  24. So … the odious Gina Miller has instructed her legal team to seek an urgent Judicial Review to challenge the Government’s decision to prorogue Parliament. This will be the subject of a preliminary hearing at the High Court next Thursday.

    In the (extremely) unlikely event that this goes anywhere and isn’t a complete waste of Court time, what is she hoping to achieve? That Parliament is able to sit for a few more days?

    Parliament has had 3 years of sitting time to implement the Brexit that the vast majority of MPs voted for when voting to invoke Article 50. All they have managed to do since then, is decide what they don’t want. What difference is a few extra days going to make?

    No doubt she’ll be crying into her soya skinny decaf latte when she receives the bill from Mishcon de Reya LLP arrives, and she has to pay the Treasury Solicitor’s costs on top of that. Not much change from £30k, I would imagine.

  25. BARBAZENZERO
    PETE B

    The real problem for Johnson is that a no deal departure will not be welcomed by most who were conned by leave campaign promises.
    _________________

    When I put my X next to leave I was under the impression that we would leave the EU with a deal. At no point do I think I was conned by the leave campaign because my vote was against the EU for interfering in the democratic process in Scotland during the independence referendum and their blatant disregard towards the Greek people and this uncontrollable free movement of people.

    I feel conned by the remain lot because it is them who have put us in the real situation of leaving without of deal. Parliament is pro remain so we are where we are as a result of that.

  26. Another new Yougov poll

    CON: 33% (-1)
    LAB; 22% (-)
    LDEM: 21% (+4)
    BREX: 12% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 28 – 29 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 28 Aug

  27. DAVID CARROD

    Totally agree with your post and on Gina Miller….

    ” No doubt she’ll be crying into her soya skinny decaf latte when she receives the bill from Mishcon de Reya LLP arrives, and she has to pay the Treasury Solicitor’s costs on top of that. Not much change from £30k, I would imagine”
    ___________

    Hahahaha love it.,.. :-)

  28. @AC
    I feel conned by the remain lot because it is them who have put us in the real situation of leaving without of deal. Parliament is pro remain so we are where we are as a result of that.

    ERG voted against May’s deal (or do you included them in “remain lot”).

    This new narrative of remain MPs blocked deal is really beginning to grind my gears.

    And for some light relief, my son Whatsapped me yesterday

    I liked it when prorogue was just what Scooby Doo called the introductory section of a book

  29. EOTW

    ERG voted against May’s deal (or do you included them in “remain lot”).

    This new narrative of remain MPs blocked deal is really beginning to grind my gears.

    And for some light relief, my son Whatsapped me yesterday

    I liked it when prorogue was just what Scooby Doo called the introductory section of a book
    __________

    Maybe there were some secret remain agent provocateur’s in the ERG. May’s deal was full of flaws and was only a halfhearted attempt at Brexit. They were right to boot May’s deal out which was heavily influenced by re moaners.

    Okay I do concede the ERG could have put May’s deal through and they are in part at fault if we leave without a deal but the fact remains, leaving the EU under any guise was always going to be problematic when parliament is full of Gina Miller chair leaders.

    My son is 8 months old…He Whatsapped me a picture of his nappy so I think you got off lightly. ;-)

  30. @ PeterW

    “We should see “acceptable” as a positve thing.”

    Well said. Difficult to build into a scoring system, but more importantly, the value of coming to an acceptable compromise seems to have been forgotten. I won’t try to pin the blame for that on either side or any person, because doing so, in itself, is another symptom of the polarisation. But the seemingly unbridgeable gulf in opinion is now there, and seems unlikely to be resolved any time soon.

    The new YouGov has a few different questions to yesterday, plenty to ponder. The fieldwork dates actually overlap a little, someone must have money to burn. Hopefully we’ll see some others coming out soon now.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/unhyjkudnd/InternalResults_190829_VI_w.pdf

  31. An interesting tidbit from the March 2008 White Paper “The Governance of Britain: Constitutional Renewal”

    ‘the full extent of the prerogative executive powers, which are devolved from the Monarch to Her Ministers, is uncertain and the conventions that govern the exercise of these powers remain conventions, and thus uncodified.The Government is conducting an internal scoping exercise of the executive prerogative powers’

    I guess that, somewhere in Whitehall, there is some sort of final report from that internal scoping exercise. I idly wonder whether the courts currently hearing, or about to hear, cases relating to the prorogation of Parliament, will have access to a copy of that final report.

  32. Danny: Sweden is the only European monarchy as far as I know that has removed the King completely from the machinery of government , including the appointment of a new PM and sanctioning of bills passed by Parliament. The Instrument of Government of 1974 reduces the King of Sweden in practice to a purely ceremonial role, but keeps him as Head of State and maintains the hereditary succession to the Criown. The King also maintains the prerogative of being regularly informed by the ministers about state affairs even though he no longer takes part in state decisions .

    In most other continental monarchies (Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, etc.), the King still retains ample powers, by all acts of the King must be countersigned by the ministers and the ministers, not the King, take legal ( and also political) responsibility for those acts.

  33. Another new Yougov poll

    CON: 33% (-1)
    LAB; 22% (-)
    LDEM: 21% (+4)
    BREX: 12% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (-1)

    On the UKPR basic swingometer, those numbers give an overall CON majority of 18 seats.

    I suspect if Bojo was offered that right now, he’d take it.

  34. CambridgeCol
    That Yougov poll doesn’t look good for Labour, with the LibDems snapping at their heels. Obviously things can change very quickly, but if those two stay close in the polls, we could end up with a GE result similar to 1983 when Lab got 209 seats on 27.6% of the vote and SDP/Lib got 23 seats on 25.4%.

    It’s very difficult to predict seats in a FPTP election when national parties are so close together, and there’s the tartan army to consider as well.

  35. @trigguy

    Interestingly, from the extra questions, at least 3% of current Brex voters:
    – believe that MPs supporting a no-deal Brexit are acting undemocratically
    – believe that MPs opposing a no-deal Brexit are acting undemocratically

    They might just not like MPs, which is consistent with previous polling.

  36. @Valerie

    “If our democracy is being debased and is in decline then, at some point, it must have been purer. When exactly was the pinnacle for our democracy institutions – how many years ago?”

    Like most things in life, there probably never was a golden age of democracy, although it must have been particularly exciting and exhilarating in the days when the pioneers were pushing back the frontiers and we moved from the patrician ways of the Victorian era to a 20th century modern democracy. The 1918 Representation of the People Act, extending the franchise, amongst many other things too, was one such momentous milestone on that journey.

    I think there are five key planks to a functioning democracy. Firstly, the electoral system that determines how we elect our representatives and ultimately our government. Secondly, the assembly or legislature and how that body scrutinises the executive/government. Thirdly, our political parties and how they represent and enact a wide range of competing political views. Fourthly, an independent judiciary and, fifthly, a free and independent press. Of course, there are other important components, including local government and devolved powers, but I’d say the five I’ve listed are the “canaries” that signal whether a democracy is functioning properly.

    So, coming back to your question, there probably has never been a time when all five of these processes have been performing at the peaks of their powers, certainly not simultaneously, but then again, I can’t recall a time like now when they’ve all been in such a parlous state. We’re not living in a autocracy, clearly, and we can still comfort ourselves that there are many other countries who would give anything to have what we still enjoy in terms of personal freedoms and democratic institutions, but I think things have deteriorated so quickly, and to such an extent, that we need to shake ourselves from some of the smugness and complacency that I still hear and see.

    Back to Sumption’s main point, and Gross’s too. These planks of democracy can weaken, and maybe even disappear, imperceptibly. Personally, I’d love a centre-left government, including the Greens and Lib Dems as well as Labour, to come into power and launch an Independent Royal Commission that looked at an almost root and branch reform of our political institutions, pledging to implement its findings too.. It could be called “Renewal of our Democracy”, and I’d hope to see radical electoral reform, a written constitution, a new and representative voting system, a reform of party funding, an investigation into the ownership of our press and local government reforms.

    And that would be just for starters!

  37. That YG poll is a net swing of 5% to the Remain side. A good week’s work Mr Johnson?

  38. PeteB

    I think Yougov underestimates Labour slightly,and overestimates green, but yes remain are split at the moment while leave (for now) are moving from Bxt to Con. I suspect a lot of below the surface movement in those basic numbers however. I think Johnsons latest move will push moderate tories to the LDs. Will be interesting to see if we get any other polls post prorogation statement tonight.

  39. @EOTW

    Zoinks! LoL!

  40. @David Carrod

    I don’t want to pose as a self-appoined moderator on here, or muscle in on Prof Howard’s role, but that was a rather unpleasant post about Gina Miller, wasn’t it? It sounded very angry too.

  41. Jim jam

    I think you are right and there are likely to be enough Tory MPs to block no- deal. Some, at least, are worthy of the term ‘Honourable’.

  42. Just had a look at the Shetland by-election result in full.

    Shetland parliamentary by-election result (29th August 2019):

    Liberal Democrats 47.9% (-19.5)
    SNP 32.3% (+9.3)
    Independent – Thomson 10.9% (n/a)
    Conservatives 3.7% (-0.1)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Labour 1.3% (-4.6)
    Independent – Stout 1.1% (n/a)
    Independent – Scott 0.6% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.5% (n/a)
    Independent – Tait 0.3% (n/a)

    The Scottish bit of Labour came in 6th? and won 1.3%? This must be a new low for the Scottish bit of Labour. I know Shetland is not fertile ground for them but surely their Scottish leader must be hanging his head in shame.

    Looks to me if the Labour vote has been squeezed by the Greens and a Muckle Roe pig farmer.

  43. DAVID CARROD

    Please take your nasty comments elsewhere. They are not welcome here.

    Allan Christie

    I thought becoming a father might mean you’d grow up a bit. Fat chance.

  44. Hal – this is reversion to mean as Con+BXP has been within MOE of 45% for several weeks now; and Lab+LD+Green close to 50% for a similar length of time.

  45. HDA: the courts in the UK cannot declare that the PM , or much less the Queen, acted “ unconstitutionally”. The UK is not like the US, or even Canada or Australia in that respect.

    What the courts can do in the UK is to declare that someone acted “unlawfully”, but, personally, I don’t see any law that would prevent the PM from advising the Queen to prorogue Parliament.

    It is worth stressing that , although royal prerogatives are not subject to judicial review, Parliament can limit or even take away royal prerogatives by primary legislation. In fact , Parliament recently stripped the Queen of her prerogative to dissolve Parliament when it passed the FTPA. If MPs don’t want the Queen in the future to prorogue Parliament on the PM’s advice, it suffices to pass legislation taking away her prorogation powers.

  46. VALERIE
    Allan Christie

    “I thought becoming a father might mean you’d grow up a bit. Fat chance”
    ________

    My other half would certainly agree with you. I get it in the ear all the time!!

  47. Thanks to everyone who’s responded to my question about the nature of our democracy . Plenty to think about and I will do some reading.

    At its best, UK PR is a place where one debate and learn about different topics .

    At its worst? See above.

  48. “DAVID CARROD
    Another new Yougov poll”

    If you actually bothered to read previous posts, instead of writing malevolent ones of your own, you would have realised that that “new” poll has been posted about six times already.

    Valerie.

    I think we would get more mature posts from AC’s infant.

  49. ALLAN CHRISTIE: When I put my X next to leave I was under the impression that we would leave the EU with a deal. At no point do I think I was conned by the leave campaign because my vote was against the EU for interfering in the democratic process in Scotland during the independence referendum and their blatant disregard towards the Greek people and this uncontrollable free movement of people.

    I feel conned by the remain lot because it is them who have put us in the real situation of leaving without of deal. Parliament is pro remain so we are where we are as a result of that.

    You voted leave, at the moment it looks like that is what you get. If the ERG had voted for May’s Deal, that is what you would have got. But really, you should have worked out before you voted that there was no definition of brexit, so you couldn’t reasonably have had any expectation of anything except the wrong kind of leaves.

  50. JimJam

    “… this is reversion to mean as Con+BXP has been within MOE of 45% for several weeks now; and Lab+LD+Green close to 50% for a similar length of time.”

    If you add in UKIP with ‘Con + BXP’, it’s been much like that for the past 2 years

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

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