There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.


1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. @Hal

    Nevertheless, first preferences alone are a pretty bad way to interpret a poll with 3 leave options and 1 remain one.

    In practice I think Jonesinbangor at 6.35pm is right on this one and most leavers will be happy with any arrangement that involves actually leaving, so long as the government doesn’t mess up the transition too badly … and there are enough remainers who don’t care that much and would rather it was just over to make it up to >50% support for most options other than “no deal”.

    Unfortunately I think more likely is that political pressures in Parliament will lead us into either “no deal”, an emergency revocation to avoid no deal, or a more long-winded way of getting to one of those endpoints. Both of those would extend the existing divisions indefinitely, I think, and lead to increasingly unstable governments.

  2. Joseph1832

    “Anyway, in five years today us Leavers will be saying, “How’s that ‘remain and reform’” getting on? Not seeing much of that reform. No sign of you guys actually trying to get any reform… Lets have another referendum…!!””

    You are probably correct.

    Of course, there won’t be nearly so many of you since interest will have moved onto other things.

    In any case, you would then need to persuade the government of the day that another referendum was for a widely agreed stance that could avoid the disaster that the current tabling of A50 has produced.

    Possible in England, I suppose (maybe even in Wales?) so you might want to start actively working for the dissolution of the UK before then.

  3. @ OLDNAT – Thanks for the info. There will certainly be several conflicting forces operating on Swinson’s seat in next GE (assuming she becomes GB wide LDEM leader).

    Parachuting her to a “safe” seat in SW London aread would also presents some “image” problems that I’m sure SNP would certainly focus on.

  4. Alec,

    “one of the great shames about the Brexit debate is the way it has driven each side into rigid mindsets that cannot tolerate any agreement across the divide.

    @Brxt’s line that there is nothing good about the EU outside the free trade issue is quite plainly completely stupid, but no more stupid than a hard core remainer being unable to accept that there are major flaws within the EU that deserve to be critiqued.

    Sadly, we end up with the spectacle of the same old ding dong, with each side defending every last point to the death, instead of sometimes accepting a shared concern from the other side.”

    ===

    Completely agree with this, excellently put. It is very tiresome to constantly rehash the same old arguments.

    However I disagree with the discussion below where you attempt to pin it all on hard Brexiters, as I think you risk falling into the same trap yourself! No-deal Brexit in particular is a comparatively recent innovation as a serious proposition, and it therefore doesn’t make sense to attribute all the ills of the debate to that.

    On the contrary, I would go back to 2016 and the immediate post referendum period. After the initial shock, the sheer *hatred* and intensity of the backlash from the hardline Remain camp was absolutely overwhelming. I fall right into the demographics of strong remain voters (20-something, well-educated), and Jesus Christ, you should have seen the level of bile washing over the likes of Facebook and newspaper comments pages, as these people both looked for someone to blame (mainly heaping abuse on stereotypes of Leave voters, but also the tedious conspiracy theories about Russian mind control rays), invented ways to dismiss the truth (like that nonsensical “only 37% of the electorate voted for it,” or suddenly deciding that the referendum was advisory and therefore didn’t happen), and overall adopted the hardline position that the vote must be ignored. On the political end, you had people like David Lammy already calling for the referendum to be ignored, Alastair Campbell founding the New European, Gina Miller launching her court case to get Parliament to vote Brexit down, and a sizeable minority in Parliament seeking to introduce numerous anti-Brexit wrecking amendments on absolutely everything.

    Obviously a lot of nastiness followed from the Leave side too (most notably the infamous Mail headlines directed against Miller and the judges) but I contend that it began with the hardline Remain group which flatly rejected the referendum, and the hardline Leave group primarily grew as a reaction against this. The common narrative that hardline Remainers only emerged as a result of patient people giving up on the government’s failure to command support for a Brexit plan, but this disregards the actual events at the time well before May started to run out of steam.

    In short, the no-deal extremists only found their public voice last year with first Rees-Mogg and now BXP; the Remain extremists got going before the votes were even counted.

    ===

    On your other points back to me, I can largely accept or agree to disagree with most, with the exception of the freedom-of-movement point:

    “EU citizens in similar circumstances can still be barred from the UK under FoM rules, if they are deemed to be a specific threat. So, for example, a Worboys character from the EU27, who having served the maximum available sentence in his own country, is then released. The UK could bar him entry, citing safety concerns. This would be allowable.

    However, a UK national Worboys, if he has served his maximum lawful sentence, cannot be controlled in such a a way.”

    ===

    Comparing EU citizens with UK citizens is not a relevant approach to discussing freedom-of-movement. Of course we can’t deport our own citizens! The correct comparison is between EU and non-EU citizens, since that is where freedom-of-movement applies: what rights does FOM confer/remove for those citizens compared to not being in the EU?

    And you could argue it both ways: either that FOM gives other EU countries an obligation to take their criminal citizens back (which is normally accomplished through multilateral agreement but not always) or that through weakening border checks FOM makes it easier for a criminal to cross intra-EU borders unnoticed, even if they are legally barred (this particularly applies to Schengen, which of course the UK is not in). One could also argue that the Citizenship Directive limits the ability to keep convicted criminals out of the country, since the government must actively show that the individual in question directly represents a public danger, given the presumption of freedom-of-movement.

  5. @Joseph1832

    “Why has the EU decided to go for a deal that cannot conceivably last due to being utterly one sided and systematically violating the basic norms of international relations? Because it expects the UK to throw in….”

    The current deal on offer is a transition arrangement (WA).

    The frustration for Leave supporters is that Remainers are determined to frustrate this first step to leaving the EU.

    Future Trading Arrangements going beyond the WA are still to be agreed. Were the UK to agree to full Customs Union alignment, the concerns about the the Republic and Northern Ireland border would not be such an issue.

  6. I’m impressed with the way that the BBC is using our licence money to help the Tories pick their best hope for a future leader.

    mid-June : a “debate” with all the candidates, to help Tory MPs to pick the two who perform best on TV (helped by the polling companies dutifully reporting the views of potential Tory voters).

    Then the last two get to debate each other on a special QT, and Andrew Neil gets to grill both separately.

    Once again, the pollsters will report back to the tiny electorate who have a vote, as to which hopeful is most attractive to potential Tory voters.

    Just imagine how much an exercise like that would cost if the Tories had to pay for it!

  7. LAB leakage to BXP

    It’s not so much the numbers, which are not massive, but:

    1/ Where it is happening (key marginal areas and also some traditional heartlands such as Wales, NE.Eng, etc)

    2/ The move to WNV (ie very low turnouts in EPs in places like Wigan – as Lisa Nandy has pointed out)

    3/ The move to LDEM/Green/PC from some LAB-Remainers that effectively lowers the FPTP hurdle in many seats.

    So you could well see LAB losing many seats via a combination of the above and an “insurgency” from a populist party that knows the kind of populist buttons to press in different seats. I’m no fan of populism for the sake of purely winning seats but to think it won’t happen is… well… I’ll leave George Clooney’s smug arrogance to explain:

    “George Clooney “Their Will Never Be A President Donald Trump”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBlt15IcNYk

    Oops!

    Just a reminder on US Presidential Election:

    Clinton: 65,853,514
    Trump: 62,984,828

    Clinton “won” the popular vote by 2,868,686

    Electoral Vote

    Trump 304
    Clinton 227

    So who is the current US president? Who understood the concept of marginal seats (in this case states) and which “populist” buttons to press in those states?

    Trump lost the popular vote by a massive margin in California (where Clinton did epic “vote stacking” in a super safe seat). Farage can afford to lose the popular vote by a massive margin in London, Scotland and the other pockets of “Remainia” (where other parties can fight it out and vote stack Remainer votes)

    So I have to chuckle when folks conclude:

    “There will never be a Prime Minister Nigel Farage”

    Yep, as Clooney might say, that is never gonna happen ;)

    Oops – it did!

  8. @CIM

    “Unfortunately I think more likely is that political pressures in Parliament will lead us into either “no deal”, an emergency revocation to avoid no deal, or a more long-winded way of getting to one of those endpoints. Both of those would extend the existing divisions indefinitely, I think, and lead to increasingly unstable governments.”

    Revocation won’t happen. Tories would be destroyed.

    If the EU offer a free trade deal, we’ll leave with that and if they don’t, it will be no deal.

  9. East Dunbartonshire contains the towns of Bearsden and Milngavie, which I have been told are two of the most expensive places to buy a house and settle down for professional couples.

    The constituency has had a chequered history and I would not wish to predict how Jo Swinson is regarded there.

    However, I suspect that Willie Rennie has a spring in his step at the thought of her becoming Westminster Leader of the Lib Dems.

  10. You may be interested to know that the count in Ireland South is still ongoing , having started on Sunday. They have just had their 17th count. There is talk of it entering its fifth day. Very exciting stuff – the green party election agent keeps us all up to date:

    https://twitter.com/davitter/with_replies

  11. Prof Howard

    The inclusion of “Westminster” in your last sentence is tautological.

  12. Oldnat,

    ““Anyway, in five years today us Leavers will be saying, “How’s that ‘remain and reform’” getting on? Not seeing much of that reform. No sign of you guys actually trying to get any reform… Lets have another referendum…!!””

    You are probably correct.

    Of course, there won’t be nearly so many of you since interest will have moved onto other things.”

    ===

    A bit of a surprising perspective for a Scottish nationalist! How many of your bunch have “moved onto other things” since losing the previous independence referendum? Not many, I expect.

  13. Imperium 3,
    “Remember again that this is quite a small part of the Tory vote from previous elections (less than a quarter of Tory voters from 2017 voted Tory in this Euro election – much less once turnout is considered) with the majority switching to BXP.”

    I argued above that the committed leavers and remainers all voted in this election. So those who might additionally turn out at more popular elections will be the ones not motivated by Brexit. Which would be most people eligible to vote.

    trigguy,
    “Timing of this is highly suspicious. If I were someone who believed in conspiracy theories, I’d be having a field day.”

    You are right! I expect Boris arranged it so as to knock himself out of the running.

    David carrod,
    ” and preserve what in my opinion is the finest legal system in the world.”

    Certainly a very expensive one.

    Hugo,
    “The vote was to leave – not to leave with a deal. ”

    i might as well assert, “the vote was to leave with a deal, not to leave without one”, with as much justification.

    Joseph1832,
    “But people didn’t vote to start a discussion and give up if the EU wouldn’t play nice.”

    I dont remember that being explained on the ballot paper either. If anything, I’d think that MPs would have the good senses to either abandon brexit or ask for further instructions, if what had originally been promised proved impossible. Thats what normal sensible people would do.

    imperium3,
    “In short, the no-deal extremists only found their public voice last year with first Rees-Mogg and now BXP;”

    Surely, it was a remain MP who was murdered by a leaver?

  14. @ OLD NAT
    I’m impressed with the way that the BBC is using our licence money to help the Tories pick their best hope for a future leader.

    Point taken, but s/he is going to be our leader as well, like it or not.

  15. @OLDNAT

    “Once again, the pollsters will report back to the tiny electorate who have a vote, as to which hopeful is most attractive to potential Tory voters”

    I hope they b****y well take note, because if they go for a renegotiate or no-deal headbanger, it’s either a General Election or no deal exit.

  16. Richard W

    “but s/he is going to be our leader as well”

    The length of time may well depend on the market research being conducted by the BBC for them.

    Surely much better if the Tories paid Sky the commercial costs of running such an operation?

    After all, isn’t a “small state” so much better, and state controlled organisations vastly inferior to private enterprise?

  17. Imperium3: Oldnat,

    ““Anyway, in five years today us Leavers will be saying, “How’s that ‘remain and reform’” getting on? Not seeing much of that reform. No sign of you guys actually trying to get any reform… Lets have another referendum…!!””

    NOT a quote you can attribute to Oldnat.

  18. @ DAVWEL – thanks for the correction on Gordon and the Aberdeen City issue.

    I certainly remember from EURef how difficult it was to split out the Scottish numbers back to exact Westminster seats.

    Way back in 2016 Moray was the closest to Leave winning at 49.9% (so close – just one area would have been nice!)

    Aberdeenshire 45%
    Angus 44.7%

    Aberdeen City 38.9%

    Scotland overall 38%

    The EP results had quite a few similarities to EURef which IMHO is not surprising – Leavers don’t die off as quickly as some Remainers might wish and some of the reasons might be more than jusy an age demographic!

    However, as you rightly point out any “pact” seems unlikely and without one then the split vote in SCON’s current seats will likely hand most/all SCON seats back to SNP (even the one they kept in 2015!)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

  19. I know some of us have had a bit of fun at Ian Lavery’s expense, and I still think his argument was essentially incoherent, but I suppose we should engage with the gist of what I think he was trying to say. It’s a fascinating argument too because it has so much in common with Farage’s; something I wonder if Lavery is even aware of.

    I don’t want to parody Lavery, but he’s basically saying that an intellectual metropolitan elite is sneering at working class people who voted to leave the EU in 2016. They’re being belittled, ridiculed and ignored, as they’ve always been, so Lavery argues, since time immemorial. Brexit was a howl of rage from a disenfranchised white, working class poor. Downtrodden and on the receiving end of middle class snobbery. Lavery sees this as a class issue, essentially. But, and here’s the irony of it all, so does Fareage. Listen to him on the stump in the recent EU election campaign. It’s Lavery’s argument almost to the word. We’re coming after all these working class poor and ignored Leave voters that Labours elite have ignored for years. The poor, the ignored the sneered at the mocked. It’s all there, just like it is in Lavery’s article. Classic Farage and Lavery’s got the same songbook.

    But it’s poppycock, isn’t it? Look at Kellner’s polling analysis of the 2016 EU Referendum and the composition of the respective Leave and Remain votes.I quote from Kellner himself: –

    “So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum’s 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong.”

    There’s obviously much more, but the message is clear. The Leave howl of rage was loudest in leafy and affluent Tory shires. The idea that Farage and Lavery are championing the great unwashed is risible. Leave voters reacting to being ignored and sneered at for years? You’re having a laugh, aren’t you. Most of the Leave vote were the very people whose constantly aired perceived grievances have been championed, catered for, megaphoned and acted upon for decades. Lobbyists at local and nation level, movers and shakers in their local communities, magistrates, parish councillors, opinion formers; you name it. Pillars (ocks) of our communities in the main. The Daily Mail’s real Britain.

    The great ignored and the little man my a*se as Mr Royle might say. Lavery and Farage, the new Brothers in Arms.

  20. TO @ Imperium3

    I don’t think he was attributing that to me, but questioning why I thought that voters in England would have “moved onto other things” while Scots voters hadn’t.

    The response is that Scots have had a pro-indy Government in place for the last 12 years (largely because they are seen as competent), and the opposition parties keep hammering on with their obsession about “No indyref2”.

    I can’t see a similar scenario occurring in England – their electing a competent Government would be the first problem!

  21. EP results trivia quiz:

    Q: Where were the two LAs with the highest % for CON (and the only two where they achieved over 20%)?

    A: ?

    tip: Handy little map from our good friends at Britain Elects if you didn’t copy+paste their data from the google docs. Various shades of light grey on the white-black scale for CON %s but you should still spot the answer.

    http://britainelects.com/europarl19/

    PS map handy to see where the key areas of support for the other parties and in many cases you get a much broader range of shading!

  22. @Crossbat111

    The Leave vote was just as strong in former industrial areas. I see where you’re coming from, but I suspect entrenched No Deal Brexiteers aren’t so simple to pigeon hole

  23. @Imperium3 – rather like your 9.16pm post.

    You may be correct and perhaps I was a bit one dimensional and placed too much emphasis on the development of the no deal theme as the cause of the division. I’ve no doubt that you are correct in what you say about bile emerging from some remainers, but I have to say I’m not altogether sure that this was what caused the hardening of the divide.

    I think it’s important that we try to avoid categorizing everyone simply as leave or remain, but accept a wide range of views within both camps. This is where polling can help us. There were, I can agree, angry and unaccepting remainers, but overall, my impression was that polling suggested a surprisingly large group of remain voters accepted the need to leave the EU.

    It was only as the process became mired in mediocrity and the emergence of no deal that many of these people started to get seriously concerned, so I’ve no doubt that no deal has to bear a hefty chunk of the blame for polarising a situation where a sensible compromise was possible, although no compromise was available to keep everyone happy.

  24. @Trevor Warne

    Imagine what would happen in those seats you mention if the Tories stood aside combined with BXP standing aside in Tory “Remainia”.

    With LDs going hardline Remain and Labour promising the mother of all deals followed by a second ref where they would presumably campaign against the deal they have just negotiated (!), the result would be interesting.

  25. I only just noticed there is another recall petition under way in Wales for a Tory MP this time.

    The result there last week was:

    European election results – Powys covering Brecon & Radnorshire
    @GoodwinMJ
    Brexit Party – 14,932 (35.3%)
    Lib Dems – 10,069 (23.8%)
    Plaid Cymru – 5,177 (12.2%)
    Conservative – 3,818 (9.0%)
    Labour – 3,119 (7.4%)
    Greens – 2,962 (7.0%)
    UKIP – 1,384 (3.4%)
    Change UK – 822 (1.9%)

    Setting this up nicely as a leave vs remain, Brexit Party vs Lib Dem battle. Cons seem sure to lose this seat.

    So I think I had 5 mp’s needing to switch in the next confidence vote at last count, this will take it down to 4.

    Then we have the no confidence vote in another conservative MP, Philip Lee in Bracknell on 1 June.

    Dominic Grieve already lost his no confidence vote but is remaining in place (for now)

    Its tipping…

  26. Alec

    “I’ve no doubt that no deal has to bear a hefty chunk of the blame for polarising a situation where a sensible compromise was possible, although no compromise was available to keep everyone happy.”

    I’d lay the “blame” more precisely on May’s attempts to “compromise” only within her own party and (to an extent) with her allies in the DUP. It was always about matters in the Westminster bubble and party grandstanding there.

    A compromise was available (and, of course, no one would be happy with it) that might well have been acceptable to sufficient.

    The Scottish Government proposals had sufficient in them to merit the serious examination that was denied them by May.

    When the backstop idea was created, that had sufficient elements that could have been enlarged to come close to the SG notion, that at least the Remain voting polities could effectively remain in a customs union and single market, but such was never pursued.

    While not quite the “reverse Greenland” scenario, there were elements of that that were possible.

    Would sufficient folk in England have really cared about the situation in NI and Scotland? Polling says not.

    Would sufficient folk in NI and Scotland have settled for “something like the UK” being in “something like the EU”? Probably.

    However, as Sajid has so ably demonstrated with his “I wouldn’t allow” comment, Westminster politicians from the largest GB party remain very centralist in their determination not to listen to other possible scenarios.

  27. @Crossbat11

    Thanks for your 10:16 pm post.

    Firstly, congratulations to Villa. As a Leeds fan, the season ended up very disappointing, but I tipped Villa to go up quite some time ago. They hit form right on time, when Leeds lost all of theirs.

    I do find Ian Lavery hard to listen to, a bit jarring to be honest. I can’t help but think surely some other person could speak more convincingly for the party.

    I live in Kirklees, and this was the EU Vote:

    Brexit Party – 34.0%
    Labour – 24.1%
    Lib Dem – 14.1%
    Green – 10.4%
    Conservative – 6.5%

    Some areas in Kirklees are very much the poor shadow of former industrially strong areas. I have really tried to understand logically how leaving the EU would improve the prospects for it’s poorer citizens, but can’t. Will it improve the education in the area, build better houses or create better jobs? I very much doubt it. All these issues are all down to action of the UK government alone. The EU is an easy target, but the wrong one, just like immigration.

    There is a huge amount of resentment, created by being left behind, but again I can’t see how the EU could materially have caused the base issues that has bred this. Maybe it’s clutch at a different sense of identity, or recapturing something from the past. It’s like moving back to an old town where you used to live, or going back to an old relationship. Going back doesn’t usually work.

    I just hope it works out well, but strongly suspect it won’t.

  28. Cleverly on Peston. Very impressive.

  29. JiB
    “I hope they b****y well take note, because if they go for a renegotiate or no-deal headbanger, it’s either a General Election or no deal exit.”

    If we end up with a version of May’s deal or Remaining, the Tories will be absolutely destroyed in the next GE. If they manage to get us out on sensible terms (which might be WTO terms – the so-called No Deal), they will mop up most Brexit Party votes while the Remain faction will still be split. result – Tory win. It’s blindingly obvious to me, but not apparently to half the Tory MPs.

    Perhaps being university-educated doesn’t inculcate common sense.

  30. @PeterCairns


    “Thus;
    Questioning = Sneering!
    Challenging = Dismissing!
    Educated = Elite!
    Thoughtful = Intellectual!”

    Add to that:

    In-depth, quantifiable analysis = smugness

    :D

  31. Kier Stamer, Lisa Nandy and plenty of others have talked about left behind towns and small Cities; in fact many Labour Folk identifies these places as the battleground for the next GE soon after the last one.

    Ref 2 (Remain option) has to have a plus element with genuine policies for these areas, not just as it make electoral sense but imo as it is the right thing to do.

  32. “London, Scotland and isolated other small pockets of Remainia (cosmo-metro places) can be fought over by LAB, LDEM, Green and NATs leaving huge number of seats in rGB wide open to Leave party(ies).”

    It seems the rGB is in the bag. Bxp has won etc. etc. etc.

    All those posts (a.k.a. analysis) about the EU elections and low turnout being nothing like UK GEs were wasted on you Trev. You don’t ID analysis, or you ignore it, if it doesn’t suit your political outlook.

    All these dreams of AB-voting don’t take into account of AB-Leave voters, AB-Tory voters, AB-Bxp voters and the like. Nor do they take into account the added 14 million voters likely to turnout in a GE.

    Nor do they allow for frit voters in marginals, who will vote for Con or Lab to prevent the other getting in.

  33. On WTO terms (which would still have to be negotiated as it is not automatic).

    The UK is a component manufacturer and an assembler. Such a solution would largely kill off the manufacturing industry. It could be for the better, but it is certainly not the message (I don’t know enough about the other sectors – well, I do about professional services, but it would take a lot of caveats).

    ——-

    On the working classes of former industrial towns – they actually could be revitalised by combining government economic policies (not of producing scissors again, but software, techniques of reducing waste and quality problems, and alike) and being in the EU. Well, becoming a diversified supplier – it can be done in the the free market as long as some slaves could be imported (at the moment, because of the shock to global supply chains cost is primary to any consideration – we saw this on 1992-94. So …)

    ——

    In general, the future action of a social democratic party is not the following the public opinion, but engaging with it (including criticism). Unfortunately hunger for power can overcome this. Lavery’s piece is a classic example of it. The problem is as defined in a 1848 pamphlet:: “fight for the attainment of the immediate aims, for the enforcement of the momentary interests of the working class; but in the movement of the present, they also represent and take care of the future of that movement. “

  34. @JIM JAM

    Kier Stamer, Lisa Nandy and plenty of others have talked about left behind towns and small Cities; in fact many Labour Folk identifies these places as the battleground for the next GE soon after the last one.

    Ref 2 (Remain option) has to have a plus element with genuine policies for these areas, not just as it make electoral sense but imo as it is the right thing to do.

    Personally I really appreciate the simultaneous translation you offer from Labour to the real world @JIM JAM, but this post really does sum up why Labour just got 14% in an election against the most inept government we’ve ever had.

  35. @Brxt

    A Conservative government will never voluntarily revoke, agreed. However, the numbers in the current Parliament are sufficient – counting the few Conservative remainers like Grieve – to potentially overrule it and revoke anyway, in certain circumstances.

    @Pete B

    I think even May’s deal would be electorally fine for the Conservatives, based on the polls. The details of it might not be great, but it would certainly mean Britain ceased to be an EU member. The Conservative VI didn’t start slipping off back to UKIP (and then to Brex) when May’s deal was being put together, discussed, criticised up and down the press, failing votes in Parliament, etc. … but when May went to the EU for extensions and Brexit didn’t happen at all.

    Sure, there’d be some “any sort of deal isn’t a real Brexit” voters on the fringes – UKIP got a consistent 2-3% VI between the referendum and 31 March – but not enough to worry the Conservative party.

    (Parties like the Lib Dems and campaign groups like Peoples Vote would also instantly be calling to rejoin, which would be further evidence to leavers that we’d left)

    @Richard

    Results of a confidence vote very much depend on what CHUK do, and they really don’t want a general election. If they support the government, or even abstain, there’s never going to be enough Conservative defectors to bring it down unless the DUP actively votes against them (highly unlikely at this stage).

  36. We have got a breathing space maybe, as after the Peterborough by-election next week but after that I do not think there are any scheduled elections for a while.

    People have strongs views about you-know-what, including me, and some could not care less. I was actually around before we joined the then European Common Market and life went on – bearable because we were young then. You can watch Life on Mars reruns to get the flavour of life then, or for a more well-heeled version watch Talking Pictures TV channel.

    Life will continue if and when we leave the EU. I hope those people who were expecting a return of mass manufacturing are not too disappointed. Who will they blame?

    The question of those left behind is a separate question, but personally I think seaside areas already have one obvious asset, and those with transport links and reasonable housing are about due for a rebirth I guess.

    Excuse all the speculation. The builders are in and the hammering has probably affected my brain.

  37. “Labour just got 14% in an election against the most inept government we’ve ever had.”

    I think the Major administration 1990-1997 was arguably worse than the current lot.

    They were in trouble once they booted Thatcher out, and yet somehow Kinnochio managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 1992.

    This led directly to the rise of Blair, and the re-branding as ‘New Labour’, sweeping away the Tory rabble in 1997. He then won two further elections, without having to do very much, as the Tories were seen as disorganised and unelectable.

    But the Marxist clique now running Labour like to disown all that for some reason, and have decided to install unelectable leaders of their own, first Miliband now Corbyn.

    Funny old game, politics.

  38. EP Results by Westminster Constituency

    Chris Hanretty has again sorted out the LA issue for us. GB seats:

    Brexit Party: 414
    LDEM: 76
    LAB: 67
    SNP: 54
    Green: 10
    PC: 10
    CON: 1

    Infographic from Peston:
    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1133864912713867265

    and the data with big list of caveats (yes this was not a GE and hence it exaggerates the protest parties, etc however his list of caveats covers the usual 2015 comparison when Cameron adopted Brexit ref so hardly comparable and since Brexit is not settled then the next GE might be about Brexit and very little else):

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/ep2019-results-mapped-onto-westminster-constituencies-8a2a6ed14146

  39. @ STATGEEK – Whatever you say George ;)

  40. CIM,

    Good analysis, perhaps change reaching a formal deal with the LDs may even joining them would make those MPs supporting more likely to back a VONC.

    NB) I think some of the Labour change MPs would have a problem with joining the LDs.

  41. “I think the Major administration 1990-1997 was arguably worse than the current lot.”

    Disagree strongly.

  42. CB11

    Very amusing-but of course Lavery didn’t say what you want him to have said.

    I quote:-

    “As someone who has opposed a so-called public vote, not least because parliament has no majority for it in principle and nobody has the faintest idea what we would actually put on the ballot, I have been doggedly attacked by certain sections of the party, as well as those on the outside. It does feel that a certain portion of “leftwing intellectuals” are sneering at ordinary people and piling on those trying to convey the feelings of hundreds of thousands of Labour voters.”

    So he didn’t say that most Brexit voters were Labour voters. He said there were “hundreds of thousands” of Labour Brexit voters. And the sneering he is complaining about is from “within” his own party.

    Then he says :-

    “We cannot win a general election by simply fighting for the biggest share of 48%”

    ie-If we focus on Labour supporting Remainers we ignore a chunk of our own voters .

    He may or may not be right about Ref2. I disagree with him-but that doesn’t make me right-its a judgement call.

    But he most certainly didn’t claim that most Brexit voters were traditional working class Labour voters. And the sneerers & the sneered at in his article are BOTH in the Labour Party.

  43. The Major government handled quite competently the process up to and after the IRA ceasefire. The Downing Street Declaration was a competent piece of work, which led on to the IRA ceasefire itself. Then the George Mitchell three-stranded framework was developed which was a key foundation stone that led to the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. This latter historic achievement was not just created in a year.

    One the economic side monetary policy was switched around from exchange rate matching (ERM) to central bank independence. Ken Clarke managed the economy in a way that also put the country into good macro health by 1997.

    On Europe, John Major successfully negotiated the Maastrict Treaty with opt outs that meant he got it past parliament, in a very narrow vote with support from the Ulster Unionist Party.

    He also got rid of the Poll Tax and replaced it with an alternative system for local taxation, not an easy thing to do. The new system which may be criticised, but at least it was competently done.

    Many of these achievements have either been reversed or set back by the current lot most seriously the peace process but also the economy.

  44. PS I should really say “One the economic side monetary policy was switched around from exchange rate matching (ERM) to inflation targeting”. There was a move towards central bank independence, because the minutes of the Ken-Eddie meetings were published, but independence proper was not achieved until 1997 and the new Labour government. Still, the changes to monetary policy under Ken Clarke paved the way for this change and were competently administered.

  45. Alec,

    Good points there – it perhaps doesn’t need saying that I am at risk of the same cognitive bias in terms of preferring to blame things on Remain supporters.

    Perhaps we have two different processes in mind. Step 1 (2016-18) was the radicalisation of the Brexit debate, with those involved in the conversation taking up increasingly hardline position, but most of the general public disengaged after the referendum (and perhaps this disengagement sped the aforementioned radicalisation, since the remaining people still talking about it were the angriest). Step 2 (2018-present) sees more people re-enter the debate as the Brexit issue drags on and the uncertainty starts to have more of a damaging impact on people’s lives. The trouble being that these people are largely just picking up the simplistic, radicalised positions that the debate reached in their absence.

  46. @ALISTER1948
    We have got a breathing space maybe, as after the Peterborough by-election next week but after that I do not think there are any scheduled elections for a while.

    Possibly one in Brecon and Radnorshire if the recall petition is successful.

    It would be an interesting election as it should be a safe Conservative seat with the sitting MP getting an 8,000 majority last time with the lib dems in second
    I would not be surprised though if there was an upset

  47. I apologise for my last two posts, on the 1990-1997 government, which I realise are in violation of the comments policy.

    Not that they are partisan, that is not their motivation, more that this site is not supposed to discuss whether a government is good or bad.

    I do think it worth noting and acknowledging however that Major’s government, and Tony Blair’s too, put a lot of time on the Northern Ireland issue despite the fact it was not likely to be a vote winner.

  48. Jonesinbangor,
    “The Leave vote was just as strong in former industrial areas.”

    Maybe the clue is in the name? ‘former’. Former labour areas, no longer theirs to claim – like scotland. Nothing to do with brexit.

    “– Leavers don’t die off as quickly as some Remainers might wish ”

    Are you basing that conclusion on the recent elections, where only half as many people voted for leave as in the referendum? How quick are you claiming remain think leavers are dying off, if you think it is faster than the 50% leave drop shown in the election?

    Alec,
    ” I’ve no doubt that no deal has to bear a hefty chunk of the blame for polarising a situation where a sensible compromise was possible,”

    I’m afraid I dont believe a’ sensible compromise’ was ever possible. In the frist place what the essential ingredients of leave are was never defined. In the second, whatever they are, there doesnt seem to be any combination of them which can be satisfied by an actual possible leave outcome.

    How can there be a sensible compromise, when there isnt an actual agreeable leave position against which to compromise?

    There could be a political fudge which pretends to satisfy everyone, but never one which did. If the parties refuse to avert their eyes and stare at the emperor, the lack of clothing becomes obvious.

  49. The Irish Times is reporting that Jeremy said yesterday that any public vote would be on the terms negotiated and “would not be a re-run of the 2016 referendum”.
    Baroness Chakrabati refused to confirm this morning that Remain would be on the ballot paper.
    Something I have always said – if another vote, it’s no deal or “the “deal – remain has been already defeated.
    THat could be a winning position for Labour – it seperates the anti democrats from the party position.

  50. ….and would hopefully convince Starmer, Thornberry, Watson, Adonis et al that the Liberals is their party.

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