There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.


1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. Peter

    A good post [but expect some sneering…]

  2. @ Alec

    That’s also a fair reply as well. I don’t want anyone leaving the Labour Party including Campbell and I agree with the negative conseqences of the reaction but it is always a fine judgment that any “manager” has to make. For example in a different arena how much do you let it go with an employee before you decide they are a negative influence on the company and actively working against their interests. I think a lot of the problem I have had with certain high profile figures within Labour is not that they aren’t entitled to views or be in the Labour Party because of their views (broad church) or entitled to express them but the element who go screaming to the press every 5 minutes. Campbell would have been the first person to hammer anyone doing that.

    It’s noticeable for example how Blair has taken a much more statesmanlike approach to his public comments than others while people like Watson seems to want to create his own random policy.

    On the time span I think the simple truth is that it was an admitted “offence” whereas the anti semitism cases are more complex and presumably mostly disputed. I don’t know if any extreme tweeting could have been done in 24 hours if someone wants a hearing.

    I remember discussing this with Neil A from the time when I served on a jury and had a case that was at least 12 months old with pretty much evidence that could have been put together in a week. Presumably this was held up by lawyers and police getting their act together It was especially frustrating when it was an obvious not guilty even before the prosecution had finished their case. It’s one reason why I am genuinely looking forward to seeing the independent assessment to see how much Labour have got wrong and why rather than my personal uncertainty. Do you for instance have an example where a clearly anti semitic comment could have been dealt with that quickly?

  3. @ JOHN SMITH – LDEM won Eastbourne in GE’17 (Although their MP (S.Lloyd) promised to honour the ref so is now Ind). BXP “won” Eastbourne in the EPs (those oldies not keen on the EU!)

    Also just FYI: BXP “won” Lewes in the EPs. CON hold the seat with a 10%+ majority and in GE’17 Greens stood aside to give LDEM the better shot. LDEM have a very good chance if the Leave vote is split between CON and BXP and the Greens again lend them their votes.

    Richmond Park was briefly LDEM in the 2016 by-election and Goldsmith only won it back in GE’17 by a majority of 45. Near certainty LDEM will win it in next GE as it’s certainly within the geographic niche of “Rich-Remainia”

    Maybe not the best mix of seats to pick but for sure LDEM will make some gains (St.Albans is the one I tend to pick as it’s local to me and certainly fits their “niche”).

    Far more interesting IMHO are all the Midlands and North seats where LAB chasing LDEM votes is as bonkers as it sounds! Lisa Nandy “gets it” but the pressure on LAB to back a 2nd ref is going to hand a lot of seats to BXP in the next GE (IMHO of course).

    LDEM folks tend to talk specific seat targets where as BXP talk whole regions or in case of Wales a whole nation (minus the NW bit and Cardiff Central) ;)

  4. @ RosieandDaisy @ Peter

    Sorry, I’m tired of reading Hireton’s arrogant posts about uneducated, unprepared and unyielding Leavers. apparently we don’t seem to know our backsides from our elbows when it comes to the EU and how it operates. We do and it’s all been discussed ad nauseam for years.

    Anyway, got to get my unhinged brain back to some work. Just in the middle of organising another big shipment to China on WTO rules.

  5. I have been quite down about the political situation of late. However, whenever that happens I go back to something I read in my youth quoted in Michael Foot’s Biography of Aneurin Bevan:

    Ariel By Jose Enrique Rodo:

    Be ye conscious possessors of the blessed power you contain within yourselves. But do you never forget that this power is no more exempt than other virtuous impulses from weakening and disappearing if it be not carried into action.
    That which humanity needs to be saved from all pessimistic negation, is not so much a belief that all is well at present, as the faith that it is possible through life’s growth to arrive at a better state, hastened and discovered by the actions of men. Such faith in the future, belief in the efficacy of human energy, are the necessary condition of all strong action and all fecund thought.
    Try then to develop so far as possible not any single aspect, but the plenitude of your being—– Be attentive spectators where you may not be actors.
    Even in material servitude, there is a way to keep free one’s inner self, the self of reason and feeling. So never do you try to justify by your absorption in labour the enslaving of your soul.
    Believe me, an educated sense of what is beautiful is the most efficacious collaborator in the forming of a delicate sense of justice. No better instrument exists to dignify, to ennoble the mind.
    Care for one’s own independence, personality, judgment is a chief form of self respect.

    It makes me feel better and allows me to regird my loins for the intellectual battle, hope others like it (whatever your views)

  6. @ R&D

    I agree with you on your comments. Sneering and metropolitan elite is not a rational argument and not accurate. There has been an element of sneering (“people with little education voted leave”) but mostly this is in btl comments and what does anyone expect from social media anyway. Those sorts of comments are not coming from politicians of any party and certainly not Labour.

    I do however think that there is an element in the centre ground that has different priorities though and I do feel that the former industrial areas have been neglected because it hasn’t been a priority to people in the centre. New Labour did try but it was from a middle class perspective because they saw academic/University education as the be all and end all and thought the jobs would turn up just because people had degrees. What it actually needed was more in the line of serious projects for regeneration and good jobs at the end of it.

    But anyway there are much better people writing articles worth consideration on the same sort of topic than what he produced.

  7. @TW I would also expect a fair amount of the SCON and SLAB vote to support her [Jo Swinson] as the clear AB-SNP candidate (Unionist and Remain)

    So I would expect the AB-SNP (anti-Indy) vote means she keeps the seat. However, the “old” AB-SNP alliances might not apply in next GE and Scottish seats are prone to huge swings so it’s certainly not super safe.

    I think this last sentence is really important; the AB-SNP approach was very strong in 2017; it may not be again and it also depends on how important SNP, Cons or Lab find it to “decapitate” the LD leader

  8. Peter W

    Obviously I haven’t seen a Welsh ballot paper (in either language), but I note from the Wiki page on the last Assembly elections that lots of GB parties add “Welsh” or “Wales” to their official English names –

    Welsh Conservative Party, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats, Wales Green Party, Welsh Christian Party, Welsh TUSC – as well as the uniquely Welsh parties.

    “Stop Fracking Now”, and similar, are registered descriptions, which lots of parties use, and are additional to party names.

    NB. I’m only commenting on this because it’s raining and I have to be inside, instead of in the garden!

  9. CON leadership contest

    Conservative Home’s latest “panel”[1] results are out. Not much change. Boris clear favourite if he gets to final 2.
    A variety of write-ups and panel results to peruse along with guesstimates of declared support for each candidate:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/author/paul-goodman

    [1] Fully aware some folks don’t like the “panel” approach. Treat with a pinch of salt for sure but the findings are in line with YGs recent poll.

    PS Huge fan of James Cleverly (JC4PM) and also happen to have a lot of money on him. I could see him being a “compromise” Brexiteer candidate squeaking to the final 2 on any Anyone But Boris blocking tactic (less baggage than other non-Boris Brexiteers).

  10. @bantams

    “By that I can only assume you want Leavers to see the EU through the rose tinted glasses that you obviously wear. The ultimate panacea? I think not.”

    No and there is no reasonable or logical basis on which to reach that conclusion. I want leavers preferably to know some basic facts about matters on which they choose to comment ( e.g. the EU single market in aviation and other transport services) and if they do not at the outset to take account of facts ( such as the existence of the EU single market in aviation services) when they have been made aware of them.

  11. @TW you wrote some interesting stuff about polls before the EU elections but you’re now getting carried away!

    The success of Bxt in the EU elections has no chance of being rolled over to the next GE. They have been lent a lot of votes and done well on a low turn out. They may well be a major force in the next election but we’re talking 15-20% which could have a seismic effect on the result but leave them with tiny numbers of seats given their vote distribution (I’d wager 3 maximum in Wales and I’d expect 0).

    There are opinion polls out now which have the Tories and Lab at historic lows of VI but still 1st and 2nd and that’s when they are at a very low ebb and hardly trying – though to be fair both parties seem to be trying to make things worse for themselves.

    We can reasonably assume that those who didn’t vote last week are to a large degree those for whom Brexit isn’t a key issue (plus lots of younger voters who will vote in at least slightly higher numbers in either a GE or referendum) which will increase Tory and Lab VI and reduce Brxt’s

  12. @ALEC

    “Also – before someone else mentions it – in you paean to ‘UK law’, your learning and research did cover the fact that there is no such thing as UK law? ”

    An over-simplification on my part, and yes there are three separate legal systems for E&W, Scotland, and NI.

    But, the ultimate appellate court for all of those systems is the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (UKSC), which will make the final ruling regardless of which country the case originated from. So you could say that this is effectively UK Law.

    My wife got me a T-shirt the other day, bearing the slogan “I’m not arguing, I’m just explaining why I’m right”.

    I have no idea why.

  13. Re: Jo Swinson, maybe her being leader of a party at Westminster might encourage a bigger vote for her? I have read before that Labour did relatively well in Scotland in 2010 (swing to Labour in Scotland whereas in England and Wales it was a swing away from labour) due to Gordon Brown being PM/leader of Labour (not seen much evidence of this though other than people’s opinions….) . Any ideas behind whether this is true and whether she might receive a benefit from being leader? Could also encourage the SNP to go after her as part of a decapitation strategy, then again the Lib Dems would presumably be out in force to defend the constituency where their leader sits. Having said all that, Tim farron did nearly lose his seat last time.

    Have wondered whether Swinson being leader might help the Scottish Lib Dems more generally, but apart from Fife North East they have a lot of ground to make up to have a chance of taking more seats.

  14. @hugo

    “The vote was to leave – not to leave with a deal.”

    The official leave campaign said categorically in its referendum campaign document that, firstly, after Brexit the UK would be part of a european wide free trade area and, secondly, Article 50 would not be triggered until an agreement had been reached with the EU. There were also the campaign soundbites from leave such as the “easiest trae deal in history”.

    So actually the leave camaign was based on reaching a deal which was going to be easy and article 50 would not be triggered until it had been reached. Now all of that was, of course, utter bunkum but that was the prospectus offered to the voters. To suggest otherwise is to rewrite history.

  15. Lavery writes:

    “while some polling data suggests more people left Labour for the Greens and the Lib Dems, it is equally concerning to see leakage to the Brexit party. ”

    Is there polling evidence of a substantial recent “leakage to the Brexit party”? I’m not aware of any, and while there’s some anecdotal evidence of Lexiters doing an Alistair Campbell, it would be good to have some figures as to how significant this is to Labour’s VI.

    The raw figures of the EU results look as if the Labour “leakage” was overwhelmingly to Lib Dem and Green, but can be deceptive.

  16. @davidcarrod

    “But, the ultimate appellate court for all of those systems is the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (UKSC), which will make the final ruling regardless of which country the case originated from. So you could say that this is effectively UK Law.”

    Not correct again, I’m afraid, so far as Scotland is concerned. The UK Supreme Court is the ultimate appellate court for civil cases in Scotland but has an extremely narrow role in criminal cases related to specific human rights issues.

  17. Of anyone is interested.

    At lunchtime the estimates for number of seats in EP was updated.

    Compared to Tuesday evening’s estimate:

    The EPP is 179 (+2) – it is important as they can expel Fidesz and still remain the largest block.
    SD&S 153 (+4)
    ALDE: 105
    Greens: 69

  18. Hugo,

    Yes, the vote was to leave but not to leave with a specific deal nor to leave without a deal.

    That’s why any particular sort of brexit is problematic from a democratic point of view.

    For example, take the most popular at present, which is no deal. How is it democratic to take this course of action when it is the first preference of only 27% of voters?

  19. David Carrod

    “But, the ultimate appellate court for all of those systems is the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (UKSC), which will make the final ruling regardless of which country the case originated from.”

    Your wife got you the wrong T-shirt!

    The UK Supreme Court is only the final court of appeal in relation to cases from the Court of Session (civil cases). In criminal law, the High Court of Justiciary is the Scottish Supreme Court.

  20. BANTAMS

    Have a look at the chapter by Noah Carl-page 15.

    You might enjoy :-)

    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Public-opinion-2019.pdf

  21. Hal

    Many thanks! I missed that…

  22. As it’s still raining ………..

    East Dunbartonshire is one of a number of Scottish constituencies that I’d hesitate to be certain about.

    It is the least deprived (mainly) urban constituency in Scotland, and is the only one to have had MPs from all four main parties.

    Swinson won (then held) the seat when the main opposition was Labour, lost it to the SNP when SLab collapsed, and their vote went SNP.

    She won it back from the SNP in 2017, when Brexit had more salience than indy and the SLab votes revived a little, and the SCon vote rose by 6%.

    Last Thursday, the ED votes split SNP 37% : LD 27% : BxP 13% : Con 11% : SGP 9%.

    So, at next UK GE – will Brexit still be a thing? Will BxP be around to stand? Which constitutional issue will have greatest salience? etc etc.

  23. @Oldnat & @Hireton – thankyou. I had faith in The Scottish Brethren, and you delivered!

  24. Just to note:

    The 1831 Poor Law wasn’t based on common law, and the entire branch of laws related to the world of work is not based on common law.

    While most of the commercial laws were based on common law in England (hence the distinct characteristic of the London Stock Exchange), with the gradual introduction of regulatory bodies even these ceased to be rooted in common law (as the regulators are statutory instruments).

    Oddly, the ECJ operates on the basis of common law – but Brexiters don’t want it. Strange.

  25. @OLDNAT

    “The UK Supreme Court is only the final court of appeal in relation to cases from the Court of Session (civil cases). In criminal law, the High Court of Justiciary is the Scottish Supreme Court.”

    Yes, that is correct. However, according to the stats published by the UKSC for 2017/2018, out of 200 applications for permission to appeal received, only 14 related to criminal matters (all jurisdictions), and only 7 of those were granted leave to appeal.

    So almost all the work of the UKSC is concerned with civil matters, and 21 of the 200 cases were from Scotland.

  26. David Carrod

    But the only cases from the Scottish criminal law system were all denial of human rights claims – which is a civil, not a criminal matter.

    You were still wrong, you know!

  27. Here we go again, the BBC putting out spin from an England pressure group on an apparent discrepancy in care spending between the four UK nations.

    There is no effort to explain, but just an attempt to persuade people in England that they are being short-changed.

    The basic calculations of the Health Foundation are based on total population, not those needing care, as far as I can tell:

    https://www.health.org.uk/sites/default/files/upload/publications/2018/Taking%20our%20health%20for%20granted_for%20web.pdf

    If anyone can show otherwise, I will retract.

    But being there are substantially more people with ill health or prematurely decrepit in Scotland than England, this ought to be allowed for in any comparisons between the nations. This may not explain the whole difference between nations, and I certainly don`t want in any way to diminish care spending in England.

    Surely we ought to have knowledgeable people from Scotalnd and Wales, giving explanations for the discrepancy.

    But Alison Holt`s biased report has just been broadcast again on he R4 6 pm programme, without any corrections.

    It seems the R4 current affairs producers merely want to stir up envy and ill-feeling between England and Scoland.

  28. @ CHRIS IN CARDIFF – Valid points on Swinson. Parachute to Twickers would be the wise move. I expect Boris might have a parachute ready to take him to Beaconsfield (currently Grieve’s seat but he is DMW)

    Whatever on BXP – just ignore the EPs, polling trends, ongoing chaos in both CON and LAB if you like. Corbyn gained 20pts with a “populist” manifesto for GE’17 and I know Farage loves a bit of “populist” stuff himself – different flavour cake for sure but folks love cake ;)

    It suits me folks write them off. Especially keen on the metro-LAB folks ignoring likes of Nandy, Flint, etc as well.

    London, Scotland and isolated other small pockets of Remainia (cosmo-metro places) can be fought over by LAB, LDEM, Green and NATs leaving huge number of seats in rGB wide open to Leave party(ies).

  29. David Carrod

    Additionally, since you have the data handy, how many of these cases referred from the Court of Session were on matters relating to EU Law (only “UK” in the sense that UK legislation gives primacy to EU law on relevant matters)?

    Two high profile cases are the unsuccessful attempt by the UK Government to block the Wightman et al petition going to the ECJ, and the unsuccessful attempt by the Scotch Whisky Association to block minimum alcohol pricing.

    In such cases (as the Brexiteers will whine) the UK Supreme Court is just acting as a local agency for the ECJ.

  30. @Hireton

    “So actually the leave camaign was based on reaching a deal which was going to be easy and article 50 would not be triggered until it had been reached. Now all of that was, of course, utter bunkum but that was the prospectus offered to the voters. To suggest otherwise is to rewrite history.”

    We do actually have a deal on offer, and it would be overly simplistic to describe the Brexit Party support as being for” no deal Brexit “.

    A lot of the Brexit vote was a” get on with it” message – a free hit in an apparently meaningless election. If Brexit gets done in whatever form, most sensible people will interpret that as the will of the people being delivered and return to. Ormal voting patterns. It does seem to me though that the Lib Dems are back in, and the Greens with them, in the “big time”.

    Not delivering Brexit will just magnify anti establishment grievances and all bets are off what the consequences for the Tories and Labour is.

  31. @Hireton

    “So actually the leave camaign was based on reaching a deal which was going to be easy and article 50 would not be triggered until it had been reached. Now all of that was, of course, utter bunkum but that was the prospectus offered to the voters. To suggest otherwise is to rewrite history.”

    We do actually have a deal on offer, and it would be overly simplistic to describe the Brexit Party support as being for” no deal Brexit “.

    A lot of the Brexit vote was a” get on with it” message – a free hit in an apparently meaningless election. If Brexit gets done in whatever form, most sensible people will interpret that as the will of the people being delivered and return to normal voting patterns. It does seem to me though that the Lib Dems are back in, and the Greens with them, in the “big time”.

    Not delivering Brexit will just magnify anti establishment grievances and all bets are off what the consequences for the Tories and Labour is.

  32. @ FROSTY – Good points on SLIB.

    @ OLDNAT – Away from the info now but is Swinson’s LA the same as the Westminster seat? IIRC it’s another one that splits across different seats for LA v Westminster so tricky to split out the EP result.

  33. OldNat

    True and agreed. It wasn’t an anti Green point just one from my own memory to illustrate the extreme flexibility parties have on this. And the fact that they all do it. Although the Greens, probably along with the LibDems, are the most creative.

    It’s also interesting that parties with no real cause to exhibit a distinct identity in the polity pretend to one in Scotland, and Wales, while one with cause to show it hides it in England.

    Curiously it probably says something slightly negative about the electorates in all three that there’s a perceived benefit to doing so.

  34. BRXT

    UNIVERSITIES:
    Currently, any British student can study at a university in any EU or EEA country (Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein), provided he or she fulfils the entry requirements of that institution.

    If the home students do not pay any fees, the UK students are also entitled to study for free.

    In total, 10 EU countries, as well as Norway, do not charge undergraduate students tuition fees.

    I take your point that UK universities are better, obviously, that’s why British students all graduate speaking three languages and go on to build bmw’s and high speed trains and know about good wine. Some can even make their own pasta, while on ‘The Continent’ they graduate in debt and overweight, crooked toothed, eating kebabs and r*ping everything that moves.

    I was going to be polite – like I was when I answered your first fishing expedition of a post – but you would have just mistaken good manners for weakness.

  35. Trevors

    East Dunbartonshire constituency is largely the same as the LA. Only a small part in the north east of the LA is outwith the constituency.

    btw I misquoted last Thursday’s figures – should have been

    SNP 35% : LD 25% : BxP 12% : Con 10% : SGP 8% : Lab 7% : ChUK 2% : UKIP 1%

  36. @turk

    A rather disappointingly predictable comment from you and not engaging with the substance.

    To recap recent posts, @lee moore asked about matters on which the UK and EU would need to reach agreement notwithstanding a no deal outcome to Brexit. I provided a number of basic examples which he misrepresented as my saying we would be begging the EU over them or simply misrepresenting the point I made. He did not have the courtesy to reply directly to me or to engage with the substance ( not surprisingly as the matters were ones which advocates of the so called “managed no deal” have flagged up as requiring resolution).

    @brxt in replying to another poster replying to his/her question about the benefits of EU membership said in response to a point about the EU open skies agreeements “is this a joke”. It would have taken about a minute to google andcget basic information about the EU’s single market in aviation services.

    This is part of a pattern of misrepresentation of other posters and an unwillingness or inability to engage with basic facts.

    The arrogance of ignorance encapsulates that approach.

  37. BRXT

    Space:

    ESA’s space flight programme includes human spaceflight (mainly through participation in the International Space Station program); the launch and operation of unmanned exploration missions to other planets and the Moon; Earth observation, science and telecommunication; designing launch vehicles; and maintaining a major spaceport, the Guiana Space Centre at Kourou, French Guiana. The main European launch vehicle Ariane 5 is operated through Arianespace with ESA sharing in the costs of launching and further developing this launch vehicle. The agency is also working with NASA to manufacture the Orion Spacecraft service module, that will fly on the Space Launch System.

    I don’t know whether you remember the fracas last year over whether the UK should fight to keep hold of access to the Galileo satellite system or build a separate one?

  38. LeftieLiberal
    “Corbyn is being hypocritical in supporting Arsenal; he should be a Spurs supporter in recognition of the injustice done to them by the Tories.”

    Very droll. I believe Spurs are supposed to have strong Jewish connections?
    ——————————-
    Hal
    “For example, take the most popular at present, which is no deal. How is it democratic to take this course of action when it is the first preference of only 27% of voters?”

    For the same reason that no single-party government since 1997 (coalition was an exception) has had more than 30% of the electorate, but they still became the government.

  39. BRXT

    Roaming:

    A European Union (EU) law to abolish roaming charges for people using mobile phones abroad comes into force today. … Until now roaming, or connection, charges have been added to the cost of calls, texts and internet browsing when consumers from one EU country travelled to another and connected to a mobile network there.Jun 15, 2017

  40. Peter W

    The reason that it happens in Scotland & Wales is because politicians from the GB parties made the rule that they could just add the geographic bit to their actual name.

    Perhaps, now that it might suit them to do the same in England, they might allow that now!

    I found “Welsh TUSC” an interesting one. As a (usually temporary) alliance of left wing splinter parties, they don’t use “Scottish TUSC” here – just TUSC.

    I’d guess that’s because it would be a huge barrier to co-operation between the pro-indy and pro-British factions.

  41. There are plenty more Lib Dem targets apart from the handful mentioned if they can get higher national VI. Some others are in Oxfordshire Hampshire , Cambs bucks and Sussex particularly if they can get some of the Green Vote. Also some Cities /Larger towns like Milton Keynes/ Bedford Stratford could become 3/4 way if CON/BP vote splits and Labour vote seems really weak in Midlands

  42. Matt126

    “There are plenty more Lib Dem targets apart from the handful mentioned if they can get higher national VI”

    Maybe. Experience of 5 party politics here suggests that winning seats (especially under FPTP) only happens if one party has a very large national VI, if it is evenly spread.

    Otherwise, it’s more vital to have a strong regional base.

    Under PR, it’s a bit different, but there are no signs that I can see that the English polity is ready to move forward on that.

  43. Pete B,

    The problem with your Westminster analogy is that currently Remain (46%) is way more popular than No Deal (27%) according to Ashcroft.

    It would be like declaring the Labour the winner of the last general election.

  44. @ Hal

    I think its on here somewhere that Ashcroft calculated a 3 or 4 point lead for Leave in a straight in or out referendum.

  45. @ Old Nat

    It’s been raining down here overnight and boy did we need some |):

  46. @ Bantams

    “I think its on here somewhere that Ashcroft calculated a 3 or 4 point lead for Leave in a straight in or out referendum.”

    Thanks for illustrating exactly why I said the Ashcroft write-up was misleading. The write-up sort of implied that, and that’s how you’ve then understood and repeated it, but it is definitely NOT what the poll asked. If you’d read some of the above posts, or looked at the data, you’d have known that.

  47. @ Bantams

    HAL’s post at 1:59pm covers this well by the way.

    The other point I have made already too often, but just in case you missed it is this:

    Asking what is the best outcome is NOT the same as asking what you want. If Ashcroft had asked ‘how would you vote in a straight in/out referendum, there’s absolutetly no guarantee that you’d get the same 50/46 split (or rather 27/15/8/46 split).

  48. @Hireton:

    People voted to leave, and Leavers were confident that a good deal would be done because it is in the EU’s interests to secure free movement of goods.

    But people didn’t vote to start a discussion and give up if the EU wouldn’t play nice.

    Because that would lead inevitably to the EU not playing nice.

    Why has the EU decided to go for a deal that cannot conceivably last due to being utterly one sided and systematically violating the basic norms of international relations? Because it expects the UK to throw in its hand.

    Why does it expect the UK to do so? Because it can do the Parliamentary arithmetic. Even before the election, it was favourable to the UK giving up under pressure.

    Anyway, in five years today us Leavers will be saying, “How’s that ‘remain and reform'” getting on? Not seeing much of that reform. No sign of you guys actually trying to get any reform… Lets have another referendum…!!”

  49. Trevors @ 3.18 pm

    Sorry for the delay in replying – I`ve been out plant recording, being that we`ve actually had a day with some sunshine after an awful run of wet days – May will perhaps be a record here for days with rain, though not total precipitation.

    Anyway you are almost correct on assigning the 6 NE Scotland UK constituencies to the 3 local council areas:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    But the Gordon constituency extends into the North end of the Aberdeen City council area. These 6 wards may contribute about a third of the Gordon population (I haven`t checked).

    They contain much new housing, not much of it in the pricy class, and some older communities, former ribbon development along main roads. There`s also a paper mill, whose 500 workers have been fearing closure, but perhaps new owners are in sight.

    I don`t believe there is any chance of co-operation here between Tory leaders and Brexit Party – only one of our MPs and MSPs could possibly favour that, and most Tories that I know would be horrified.

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