There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.


1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. I’ll be observing the count for Waverley borough, as one of 8 counting agents for team Gold. Wll be interesting to see how the stacks of ballots measure up against each other, giving an indication of how the votes are going – but that will be locally, only.

    Apart from the obvious interest in the EU result, I expect there will be further interest later, in attempting to divine the vote breakdown at constituency level How useful that might be, is another matter.

  2. Thanks for the new thread Anthony. It will be very interesting to see how things develop. Presumably we’ll start to get actual results in the early hours of Monday as I understand that counting doesn’t even start until 10pm.

    Of course if we had left on March 29th as was enshrined in UK law we wouldn’t be in this mess.

  3. Terence Weldon
    What’s team Gold?

  4. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the delayed Tendring District Council election in St Osyth, also tomorrow. It could make the difference between a minority led Conservative Administration or a Labour led ABC administration.

  5. The UK Polling Report website has broken for me.

    Clicking on ‘comments’ suddenly does not work.

    Instead of going to comments, it just takes me an inch or so further down the same page.

    Was working fine up until around 9pm.

    I hope it gets sorted soon.

    Using Windows 7 Home Premium, Firefox 52 Extended Support Release version.

  6. No results predictions from me, but I predict the end of at least one leadership (May is the obvious one, but she doesn’t seem in the mood). An awful lot of leaders have put too much into this to come away claiming a victory unless they get one.

    May (probably out soon-ish)

    Corbyn – Has to come ahead of the Tories to stay in business. Likely to survive. If Lab somehow drop below Con, despite Con dropping so far, it’s seen as an opportunity missed.

    Cable (retiring soon – he doesn’t count)

    Farage – Probably safe, but in a job with one objective, which is out of his hands to deliver. He can win all the EU seats and Westminster can say nope. If however, the Bxp adventure turns out less than ideal, he’s kind of in trouble. Of course, any Tory/Lab voters out there enabling his brand of politics can blame themselves if things go bad.

    Ruthie – Scot Con leader – has declared the election a vote on stopping Indyref 2, and there’s every chance that the Scottish Tories could have no seats. That sounds like abject failure.

    Leonard – (“Who?”, I hear you ask) – Scot Lab leader – Seems to be doing not an awful lot, but I don’t have my hand on the Holyrood pulse these days. Any change might be a good idea, given that he struggles to register with most people.

    Foster – If May goes, presumably the Con / Dup alliance goes too, until revisited. Foster was getting some flak after the funeral of the journalist, and if the three NI seats go from 2:1 Union advantage to disadvantage, she’ll have problems, methinks.

    Sturgeon – It’s not very likely, but 2 seats would be seen as a bit of damp squib, considering what the polls have been saying (the polling companies have to also take some blame if wrong). While Sturgeon wouldn’t be personally responsible, questions will be raised (no, not by opposition politicians, or servile Scottish unionist media types – they’ll do that anyway!).

    …all personal speculation, with no dog in the fight, beyond the usual political partisan stuff. I don’t gamble either, in case you’re thinking of that ‘cheeky bet’ that many others think of. I just think it’s time we had a reshuffle of leaders. :D

  7. I thought we should start with a baseline of support from 2014, before the votes are counted on Sunday, noting that I have created a category for 2014 called UKIP+ that includes ballots cast in 2014 for UKIP, BNP, English Democrats, No2EU, An Independence from Europe, We Demand a Referendum. As a result the baseline for UKIP and the Brexit Party is 38% and not the 31.5% that UKIP obtained in 2014 in the West Midlands. Thus, for example, 38% to 42% in the West Midlands is a much smaller growth than going from 31.5% to 42%.

    Scotland

    SNP 29%
    Labour 25.9+
    Conservative 17.2
    UKIP +* 12.7%
    Green 8.1%
    LD 7.1%

    *UKIP + Britain First, BNP and No2EU

    Northeast England

    Labour 36.5%
    UKIP+* 34.7%
    Conservative 17.7%
    LD 5.9%
    Green 5.2%

    *UKIP+An Independence from Europe, BNP and English Democrat

    Northwest England

    Labour 33.9%
    UKIP+* 32.3%
    Conservative 20.1%
    Green 7%
    Liberal Democrat 6.%
    Other . 8**

    *UKIP+ English Democrat, BNP No2EU and An Independence from Europe
    **Pirate and Socialist Equality. Question are the latter left Euro-sceptic?

    Note: English Democrat, Tommy Sheridan, UK European Union and Independent Mohammad Islam are all running in 2019

    East Midlands

    UKIP+* 37.5%
    Conservative 26%
    Labour 24.9%
    Green 6%
    LD 5.4%
    Other .2%

    *UKIP+An Independence from Europe, BNP and English Democrat
    **Harmony Party

    Note: Independent Network and Independent running in 2019

    West Midlands

    UKIP+* 38%
    Labour 26.7%
    Conservative 24.3%
    LD 5.6%
    Green 5.3%
    Other*8 .1%

    UKIP+An Independence from Europe, We Demand a Referendum, BNP, English Democrat and No2EU
    **Harmony Party

    East of England

    UKIP+* 39.1%
    Conservative 28.4%
    Labour 17.3%
    Green 8.5%
    Liberal Democrat 6.9%

    *UKIP+An Independence from Europe, English Democrat, BNP, Christian Peoples, No2EU

    Wales

    UKIP+ 29.9%
    Labour 28.2%
    Conservative 17.4%
    Plaid Cymru 5.3%
    Green 4.5%
    LD 4%
    Other** .8%

    *UKIP+BNP, Britain First and No2EU
    **Socialist Labour and Socialist (GB)

    Thus you can see that with rare exception where there were up to six Brexit parties in an EU constituency in 2014 there are now only two. Conclusion anyone who believes the Brexit party was only formed a few weeks ago is extremely politically naive, in that I belive a good journalist could dig out that plans for a Brexit Party and the bringing together of the “family of parties” began in earnest shortly after Farage met Trump and Steve Bannon. Bannon has links to European Union parties of similar ilk to Brexit, including France’s National Front,[28] Hungary’s Fidesz,[29] the Italian League,[30] the Five Star Movement,[31] the Brothers of Italy,[32] Alternative for Germany,[33] the Polish Law and Justice,[34] the Sweden Democrats,[35] the Dutch Party for Freedom,[36] the Freedom Party of Austria,[37] the Swiss People’s Party,[38] the UK Independence Party,[39] the Flemish Vlaams Belang,[40] the Belgian People’s Party,[40] Spain’s Vox,[ and much like the last free election of the Weimar Republic one of the tactics used was to persuade as many of the “alt-right” parties to come in under the umbrella of the Nazi Party for maximum voter effect.

    Bannon believes that the aforementioned movements – along with Japan’s Shinzo Abe, India’s Narendra Modi, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad bin Salman, China’s Xi Jinping, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and America’s Donald Trump, as well as similar leaders in Egypt, the Philippines, Poland, and South Korea – are part of a global shift towards nationalism.[46][47][48]

  8. PeteB
    Counting in Kirklees starts at 2.30pm on Sunday. The district elections were all done inside 3 hours. However they are using a much smaller room, so possibly less counting agents, and the ballot papers are a lot longer. If turnout is higher than tge locals they may struggle to finish by 10pm, but i am sure results will start to appear soon after that from some council areas

  9. Here on the west end of Canada I cannot get BBC live either on the internet or youtube, as it is blocked. Watched the English local government elections live on Sky News for a time May 2nd our time, May 3rd yours.

    Any suggestions for live coverage and starting at what time GMT.

  10. Didn’t I read somewhere that there are no plans for live overnight results TV programmes because the count isn’t ’til Sunday. And that raises the question ‘why do we do elections on Thursday and not at a weekend’s?

  11. “For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.”

    Out of interest, does anyone know which countries those are? I can’t think of any EU country that’s really big enough to justify taking four days to hold an election.

  12. I note that predictions for Conservative, Liberal, Green, ChUK are much the same for all polling companies, although the balance between Labour and Brexit varies.

    YouGov however are way out on a limb here, with completely different predictions. This is therefore a real test for them. If the other polling companies are right, and YouGov wrong there’s going to be the need for a lot of analysis and mea culpas from Anthony here. Hopefully he won’t simply give up and close the site down.

  13. hulagu

    Personally I’ve long thought that YouGov’s polls have been politically motivated and provided cover for the Tories. Ever since they plumped for a wrong final poll in 2017 and ignored their massive constituency by constituency evidence.

    We’ll find out if they are accurate at least. Then we’ll find out if they are crooked afterwards if they carry on with their “methodology” if they are miles out.

  14. There was a steady stream in my polling station at 7.10.

  15. I hope this won’t depress the plethora of Remainers on UKPR too much, but I arrived at the local polling station at a couple of minutes before 7:00, expecting to be the only one there, and was surprised to find half a dozen others waiting to go in and vote.

    The general consensus amongst the group was, well we told them we wanted to leave 3 years ago, and the MPs have buggered it up. So we’re going to tell them again.

    Based on this highly scientific exit poll, I think that nice Mr Farage will do even better than the polls are predicting when the votes are counted.

  16. Imperium3 ” I can’t think of any EU country that’s really big enough to justify taking four days to hold an election.”

    I don’t have all the details – easily looked up – but I think it has been the tradition (and law) to hold elections on Sundays in certain countries. Generally these are for one day only.

    The count is a different matter. Others perhaps live in France and can tell us, but I think results from the so-called overseas departments can often come in later.

    On the other hand, like some others on here, I have no idea what is going to happen. The polls give us a clue about these EU elections, but as to the wider picture afterwards it seems almost anything could happen.

  17. Pete B,
    “Of course if we had left on March 29th as was enshrined in UK law we wouldn’t be in this mess.”

    Which mess? Just about to be a most interesting election.

    If we had left, wouldnt it just now be a different mess? This will tun for years and years!

  18. Lovely day for voting here in Cardiff – and I suspect across much of the UK.

    My daughter had her first vote today and rushed out just after 7 to cast it. To my surprise she says there is big interest in the election from her classmates who are old enough to vote; how many bother we will see. They are apparently all of one view which unsurprisingly from a group of young middle class urbanites isn’t Brexit

  19. SNP whitewashed from the results in the article despite polling higher than Change UK.

  20. well most countries in europe hold the elections on SUNDAY and only on sunday.

  21. Personally I will be looking at 2 things, the aggregate votes for hard Brexit and for unequivocal ref2/remain (not withstanding some PC/SNP and Green voters might be for leave).

    I think it will confirm that only around 6million people are so exercised by our not having left yet to register that outrage, as Farage would describe it; and only 4-5million people feel strongly enough about a second ref/revoke to register it. A lot of people on either side but hardly a clear message from the country (UK).

    The Labour vote will contain some people who are very keen on ref 2/remain as well of course.

    Of greater interest is what occurs in Northern Ireland and if the DUP get a clear message from the unionist electorate as that will inform their actions in striking a new C&S deal (or not) with the next PM.

  22. CANADA

    If you have an Android tablet or phone, you can run a free app called Mobdro, which gives you access to virtually all European and many US TV channels without needing a VPN. Current version is 2.1.38.

    News channels available include Sky News, the local and world versions of BBC news and Euronews, and there will likely be live coverage on at least one BBC and ITV entertainment channel.

    I can’t find details of TV coverage on Sunday evening yet, but live coverage is likely to begin around 22:00 UTC.

  23. Jim Jam,
    “I think it will confirm that only around 6million people are so exercised by our not having left yet to register that outrage, as Farage would describe it; and only 4-5million people feel strongly enough about a second ref/revoke to register it. A lot of people on either side but hardly a clear message from the country (UK).”

    In other words, there is nowhere near the support necessary to justify turning the Uk economy upside down. There never was.

    Parliament plainly believe there will be bad consequences to leaving the EU. Parliament refuses to just stand up and say so. David Davies exemplified this in his interview, going along with brexit because that is what people want, but also trying to mitigate the worst effects. Not willing to say the claimed benefits are wholly illusory. A total failure by politicians to say what they actually believe.

    And the result of that is? No one at all believes in the parties!

    But con and lab must now be standing on losing half their voters. Is that really small enough to ignore? If we get 6 million on one side facing off with 5 million on the other…isnt that a civil war?

  24. CANADA

    PS I should have added that you won’t find Mobdro in the play store.

    However, you can find it easily via the browser and download from there. If you use Avast antivirus, open the apk with that first (to make sure you have a safe version of the app) and it will guide you through the install process.

  25. Turnout seemed pretty high from the small sample of time I spent today in the polling station (i.e. the time to vote) in a very remainy part of bristol.

  26. @Canada

    I’m not sure you can deduce anything from the really minor parties except for how many people have a big enough ego to believe that they’ll succeed in politics or achieve something despite no-one having heard of them, minimal membership, no campaign infrastructure, and no relevant experience [1].

    Counting only parties with a percentage of the vote that won’t be lost in rounding errors:
    2019: Brexit, UKIP
    2014: UKIP, BNP, English Democrats if you’re generous with the line
    2009: UKIP, BNP, English Democrats
    2004: UKIP, BNP, English Democrats
    1999: UKIP, BNP

    All that’s happened since 2014 is that the BNP has basically collapsed entirely, UKIP have drifted over into that space (and mostly collapsed as well), and Farage has started over with a new name.

    Certainly Farage has probably been planning for this since it became clear that the EU elections were on, and that there was an obvious gap that neither Conservatives nor UKIP nor Bob’s Ego’s Pro-Brexit Party were filling – but on the other hand, he’s an experienced campaigner, with a simple popular idea and message, plenty of money, and running a non-membership-based party. Whether he’s been planning it for three months or six or even twelve, doesn’t really matter.

    [1] This time most of these minor parties are on the Remain side. But the principle is the same.

  27. If May goes on Friday or Monday, can anyone tell me why no-one seems to have mentioned the possibility of Labour putting down a motion of no confidence on Tuesday or Wednesday before the parliamentary recess? It seems like a no-brainer.

  28. Pete B and all

    EU tentative timetable for estimates and provisional results on (final) polling day:

    https://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20190521RES52073/20190521RES52073.pdf

  29. @canada

    Have you tried using Unotelly?

  30. @ ciderman

    Tories and DUP would have no reason not to vote with the Government and every reason to do so to stave off a GE until the new Tory leader is elected.

  31. With enforced election day purdah limiting what the broadcasters may cover, May has bought herself another 24 hours, holed up in Chequers I expect; sofa at the door as IDS observed, rather pithily for him.

    Sometimes, political events move so quickly, taking the breath away as they do, that it’s often the case that we miss the chance to reflect on the utter magnitude of events and circumstances as they unfold. We become almost blase and punch drunk, but let’s reflect for a minute. We have a Prime Minister cowering from meeting her Cabinet ministers through fear of what they may say, utterly without power, authority and the ability to govern and lead, a governing party in disarray, EU elections taking place two months after the Government pledged to have engineered our leaving, a far Right demagogue on the verge of winning a national election and, as far as I can see, a nation divided, leaderless and on the brink of chaos. The old order seems crumbling and the country is in political and constitutional crisis.

    On that basis, may I register my congratulations to the British Conservative Party; the regular visitors of national calamities.

    You’ve gone and done it again.Shame on you for what you’re doing to our country.

  32. @Crossbat11

    On that basis, may I register my congratulations to the British Conservative Party; the regular visitors of national calamities.

    You’ve gone and done it again.Shame on you for what you’re doing to our country.

    As Rees-Mogg would say “Hear him, hear him”

  33. CB- the contrast with Thatcher, who had each cabinet member look in her eye and respected Ken Clarke who told her it was time to go, is palpable.

  34. @Ciderman

    “If May goes on Friday or Monday, can anyone tell me why no-one seems to have mentioned the possibility of Labour putting down a motion of no confidence on Tuesday or Wednesday before the parliamentary recess? It seems like a no-brainer.”

    I’m sure I’ve seen it mentioned somewhere, and it may well be that Corbyn will feel obliged to table such a motion.

    However …

    There are a chunk of Chukkas who know that their services will no longer be required after the next general election – polls suggest they won’t even attract a significant protest vote in the euros. They want this parliament to last as long as possible.

    Several Labour MPs may feel under threat either of parliamentary ejection by leave leaning constituents or deselection by momentum leaning associations – it is not only governments that have problems when they are divided.

    DUP are in the strange position that if the euro election results can be interpreted as support for their position, they won’t want to collapse the government for political reasons, whilst if the vote isn’t supportive they won’t want to collapse the government for personal survival reasons.

    There may of course be some remain conservatives willing to support a vote of no confidence as a pre-emptive strike against the election of a brexiteer tory leader. Whether there would be more tory supporters of a VoNC if May didn’t stand down and with Brady obstructing any 1922 committee attempts to oust her is unknown.

    Lib Dem, Green and Nationalist support in a VoNC should be assured. However for a the vote to pass it seems to need more turkeys voting for christmas than is credible. Besides how confident could Corbyn be of winning an election in the near future? First past the post may neuter the brexit part’s chances, though even that is uncertain if the conservatives collapse completely, but with Lib Dems increasingly looking a serious option rather than a depository for protest votes, a labour majority is far from certain. Securing the keys to Downing Street for that nice Mr Cable is presumably not the plan.

  35. Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.

    About time too!

  36. changing my vote back to labour as it doesn’t look like greens can win in yorkshire and need to keep the far right out. Sorry magic magid!

  37. “However for a the vote to pass it seems to need more turkeys voting for christmas than is credible.”

    Indeed. Essentially parliament does not have the confidence in itself to declare no confidence in the present government…

  38. If the tiggers (or any sitting Labour MPs) don’t vote against the Government in a VoC then they are toast, either at the ballot box or through deselection.

    They can’t really complain either, can they?

  39. All Labour MPs would support a VONC but Labour wont call one any time soon. The last one only became an issue as it was a necessary step to moving the conference policy steps forward and some ref 2 supporters pushed for it.

  40. Sarissa

    Thanks.

  41. @nickp

    Certainly no Labour MP is going to vote to back the government.

    The problem for TIG is that backing the government – especially right now – is unlikely to win them the support they need for a future election, with anyone who might be looking for their sort of party (though they are of course at no risk of deselection now). On the other hand, if they don’t back the government, there might be an immediate general election, which they would almost certainly also lose in their current seats … and that would be the end of that.

    Keeping the government up means they have longer – maybe even three years – for some political events to happen that mean they look like an electable option.

  42. CIM/Nick P,

    I never thought of that re Tiggers, Lab might call a VONC to flush them out. I guess if a new Harder Brexit PM, they could justify voting with the opposition?

  43. @All
    Voting dates for EU Parliament

    Thursday 23rd: The Netherlands, United Kingdom
    Friday 24th: Czech Republic (day 1 of 2) Ireland
    Saturday 25th: Czech Republic (day 2 of 2), Latvia, Malta, Slovakia
    Sunday 26th: remainder of EU states.

    data from Wikipedia

  44. Prof. Howard,

    “There was a steady stream in my polling station at 7.10.”

    Do you think they’ll be able to call in a plumber during the election?

  45. crossbat11,
    “We have a Prime Minister cowering from meeting her Cabinet ministers through fear of what they may say, ”

    Another interpretation was she told them to get lost. And they went.

    Once the election is done, it would not surprise me if a tory truce breaks out.

  46. Withdrawal bill has been pulled. Another non-story about a bill that never was bites the dust. Did allpw conservative MPs to protest their leave credentials though. Lucky timing for the party, what with elections today!

  47. I expect Sir Graham Brady to tell May on Friday, that either she stands down as Tory party leader there and then or the 1922 Committee will change its rules to allow an immediate leadership challenge.

    May will still be PM for Trump’s State visit, but not party leader.

    Once the week’s recess is over, I expect a VoNC taking advantage of the Tories not having a leader.

  48. @CANADA – Try using the TOR browser. That can usually get past regional or ISP blocks.

  49. Andreas,

    “well most countries in europe hold the elections on SUNDAY and only on sunday!”

    Bloody Foreigners… holding elections when it’s convenient for their citizens!!!!

    Peter.

  50. “Bill Patrick
    Prof. Howard,

    “There was a steady stream in my polling station at 7.10.”

    Do you think they’ll be able to call in a plumber during the election?”

    Now if Peter Cairns [SNP] had made that small joke he would have ruined it with multiple exclamation marks as though it was a bleedin’ enormous and utterly hilarious one.

    [Appropriately I see that he has just done that very thing…]

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