The Times have released a new YouGov poll of party members – the report is here and the tables here.

Theresa May’s time is essentially up. Party members are normally the loyalist of the loyal, but even here there are few good words to be said. Only 20% of her own members think she is doing well and 79% think she should resign. Asked about her record, 25% of Tory party members think she has been a poor Prime Minister, 38% a terrible Prime Minister.

Let us therefore move swiftly onto her replacement. The obvious frontrunner with party members remains Boris Johnson. He is seen as a good leader by 64% to 31%, and is the first choice of 39% of party members, easily ahead of his rivals. He has the highest positive ratings on every measure YouGov asked about – 77% of party members think he has a likeable personality, 70% that he would be able to win a general election, 69% that he shares their outlook, 67% that he is up to the job, 69% that he would be a strong leader, 61% that he would be competent.

Johnson is very clearly in pole position – yet in past Conservative leadership elections the clear early frontrunner has not necessarily gone on to win (and indeed, there is no guarantee that Johnson will even reach the final round or get to be voted on by party members). One can recall the time when Michael Portillo was the obvious frontrunner to succeed William Hague, or David Davis the obvious frontrunner to succeed Michael Howard.

Looking at the rest of the field, Dominic Raab is in second place in first preferences on 13%. As the other candidate to have resigned from the cabinet – and likely to be see as a “true Brexiteer” by members – he comes closest to Johnson in the head-to-head match ups and beats ever other candidate in head-to-head figures. Considering he has a substantially lower profile than Johnson, it is a positive finding.

Of the Brexiteers in the cabinet, Michael Gove is the second best known candidate after Johnson, but polls badly on many counts. While most see him as competent and up to the job, he is not seen as capable of winning an election or having a likeable personality. Andrea Leadsom is seen as likeable, but not as an election winner. Penny Mordaunt receives high don’t know figures on most scores.

Looking at the candidates who backed Remain in the referendum, Sajid Javid seems best placed candidate from that wing of the party. In first preferences he is in joint third with Michael Gove, and in the head to head scores he would beat Hunt, Hancock, Mordaunt or Stewart (and tie with Leadsom). He scores well on being likeable, competent and up to the job, but his figures are more mixed on being seen as an election winner.

These are, of course, only the opinions of party members. While they will have the final say, they do not get a say on who makes the shortlist. That is down to MPs, and as things stand there is very scant information on who is doing well or badly among that electorate.


955 Responses to “YouGov polling of Tory party members”

1 2 3 4 20
  1. @Andrew Myers

    That depends on when the next GE is, who is leading the Conservatives into it, whether Brexit has happened, not happened yet, or been definitively cancelled, and if Farage can convert that support into a decent ground operation without it going all UKIP on him.

    I think Farage might offer it, but I’d be very surprised if the Conservatives accepted.

    @Dunham111

    Agreed that Green is a risky vote outside London and SE, but Lib Dem should be a fairly safe one for a “generic Remainer” [1] anywhere in England except the NE region

    [1] i.e. “I want to stay in the EU but I don’t care who runs it”. How many Remainers are of the generic sort, I don’t know if there’s been much polling on.

    @Alec

    I don’t believe there is a global trend to the right or the left. I think the last ten years have generally seen a global trend away from the people currently in charge – where those have been centrists, it’s been a matter of which of right or left have been able to get their act together better locally.

  2. Dunham111

    I agree entirely with your tactical voting analysis, I’d like to vote Green, but here in the East Midlands doing so in company with others could easily add another seat for Farage’s ltd co or the Tories rather than Labour,

    Having no confidence in the polling, or at least expecting it to continue to wander about all over the place in the next week doesn’t help.

  3. CIM
    And also whether Farage’s lot are prepared to unquestionably follow him into the hands of the Tories…

  4. @ cim

    “Agreed that Green is a risky vote outside London and SE, but Lib Dem should be a fairly safe one for a ‘generic Remainer’ anywhere in England except the NE region.”

    I don’t agree, except possibly in SW England, which has 7 seats and where the LD presence has historically been strong.

  5. @Shevii

    It’s not just YouGov that have results away from the pack, either, depending on which party you look at.

    BREX: YouGov and Opinium high, Comres and BMG low (9pt spread)
    Lab: Comres, Hanbury and Survation high, YouGov low (10pt spread)
    Con: Comres high, YouGov low (6pt spread)
    LD: BMG and YouGov high, Survation low (8pt spread)
    Green: YouGov high (4pt spread)

    Even without YouGov the polls are still all over the place – YouGov and Comres house effects are just more obvious because they’ve been commissioned for a lot more public polling recently.

    Whatever the result, I’d be surprised if more than 2 polling companies were able to claim to be within MoE … and probably only 1 will win. I guess this is where we find out if Survation just got really lucky in 2017, or are actually onto something.

  6. Dunham,

    Some voters will be more concerned with the vote share narrative than who becomes their MEP(s) which is respectable position even if it helps more BXP candidates get elected.

    Charles – your ”The question is whether there will be a message which the parties ‘ought to draw’’

    Agree 100% I am sure the big 2 (UK) but more so Labour as the ‘message’ if their is one will be harder to discern, will be checking votes and distribution carefully.

    The only 2 parties than can effect Brexit (or not) in the current HOC are Lab and Con (+DUP) and both have been constrained or dictated to by manifesto commitments, other red lines and conference resolutions. Politicians who have to deliver, rather than just positioning from the outside, want as few constraints as possible which is why the EP Election manifestos from the big 2 (UK) parties do not add any further constraints on either of them. The cost of some votes and seats at the EP Poll is in their view a price worth paying even if their is a risk of lent votes not returning.

    NB) Of course manifestos can give a mandate and will be specific in areas the parties want an apparent decisive endorsement; I am being Brexit specific above, although it could apply to other areas where the possible parties of government use vagueness to maintain flexibility.

  7. @ Aldo and others

    It’s already been covered well, but just to confirm that, as Statgeek says, the absence of SNP etc is typically due to these numbers coming from Britain Elects and similar, before full tables are released. I do occasionally remember to apologize for the absence with a ‘not my fault’ proviso, but forgot to do so on this occasion. The wiki page Richard mentioned is excellent, including all parties, and updated quickly in general, but still typically lags the twitter sound bites.

  8. Latest from your man on the spot in Sydney Harbour!

    Tony Abbott, former Liberal PM, set to lose his seat. 5% swing to Labor so far but some results are going against the head. An interesting night unfolding Down Under.

    As they say in the trade!

  9. CROSSBAT11

    Abbott now gone per NY Times & grauniad

  10. @Canada

    I understand from this side of the water that Trudeau has been seriously damaged by the SNC-Lavalin allegations, and particularly from his interfering with his Justice Minister’s handling of them and his removal of her from that post. That would constitute a special factor in the Canadian results.

    As someone with a closer view, can you comment?

  11. @ CIM

    You gave a better analysis than me as I hadn’t spotted the other discrepancies although more difficult to analyse individual polling companies with perhaps only one poll for most of them since the locals. Although given that even prior to the locals yougov was showing the same pattern it’s not necessarily wrong to compare all EU polling even if the locals did substantially change the mood.

    I know you mentioned Lib Dem being a safer bet than Green but again not guaranteed in all regions. In North West the Greens were substantially ahead in the one yougov poll that had crossbreaks (10% to 5%). This was prior to the locals and a sample size of only 600 so it doesn’t mean that things haven’t moved on substantially since then and it would be logical to believe that the Lib Dem vote increase in national polls might be reflected in changes in the North West.

    Equally there has to be a doubt that with very little in the way of a base in the North West and people crosser up here with the coalition than in other areas of the country, that the Lib Dems might not have made progress. In Wigan they fielded candidates in less than half the seats and they finished bottom in every ward bar one- that one beating the Greens into last place by 4 votes! Equally of course they may have more joy in the cities but likely to be confined to small parts of Manchester and Liverpool again based on the locals results.

    Until we have a new crossbreak for North West I don’t think you could easily call it between Lib Dems and Green.

  12. The coalition predicted to just get over the line in Oz, Labor getting hammered in Queensland seems to be the main reason.

  13. A thought re multiple postings, from which we all suffer now and again….

    For a while I have been using Avast’s customised version of Chromium [not quite the same as Google Chrome but more resistant to malware].

    When posting with that browser, the text posted appears on a new page [in my previous post as http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10059/comment-page-2#comment-1226562%5D but NOT on the “plain” comment page until you refresh it, when your latest post DOES appear.

    I suspect a minor tweak in WordPress is the cause.

    BTW The free versions of Avast Antivirus work very well on both PCs & Androids, but as an Avast user for about 20 years I have never needed any of the unfree bells and whistles.

  14. @Dunham

    Electoral Calculus’ piece on tactical voting at the Euros is quite revealing:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pseph_dhondt20190515.html

    In South East (10 seats), London (8 seats) and North-West England, there is almost no effect from tactical voting until it is > 40%.

    The gains come in the smaller constituencies where voting for the leading Remain party is much more important as it is likely that there will be at most 1 Remain MEP. Labour is not counted in the Remain camp.

  15. @ OLDNAT (last thread) – ?!?

    “Yet again, you demonstrate your ignorance of Scottish politics, polling and the electoral system for Holyrood.

    If BxP win some seats on the List in 2021 (as they well might) those will be at the expense of other Unionist parties.”

    I do love it when folks chuck out the “ignorance” slur. It appears you might be “ignorant” – not that I’d use that kind of slur myself of course, I’m just a th!cko Leaver of course perhaps genes from my mum’s side of the family from NE Scotland which was a lot less “Remainy” than elsewhere in Scotland ;)

    Perhaps we should revisit the BES study and current Brexit stance by party in Scotland?

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/a-tale-of-two-referendums-the-2017-election-in-scotland/#.XN_MISMwgb0

    Which party is currently fishing for the Yes-Leave vote (most of which was just about still SNP in GE’17, SCON took a chunk of it but that was before Ruth+Mundell backed BrINO and sold that faction out)

    and the map of 2016 Holyrood:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_election

    So, as I said, then in a hung parliament BXP might be “Queen maker” for Holyrood (taking from both SNP and SCON) and “King blocker” in Westminster. If you want more devolved powers and Indy “not yet but maybe” then you might find BXP are a better partner than SLAB.

    I’m sure you think all SNP are Arch-Remain but if we actually look at actual polling then clearly that wasn’t the case and that I why I mentioned SNP’s origins were about “taking back control” of things like fishing!

    Control SNP want to give back to Brussels and something not every Indy voter would be happy about (please read the BES report).

  16. @Shevii

    “For a polling site it is interesting just how little comment there has been on the, perhaps unprecedented, discrepancy between yougov and the other polling companies.”

    ——

    Well it does get mentioned, but it’s hard to get a purchase on it. I know in the past I’ve had an exchange on here about whether Yougov might be using their new, alternative model that was quite successful recently, to help calibrate their conventional polling, and maybe that’s why the difference. Though I don’t recall the matter being settled…

  17. @leftieliberal

    Splitting the vote in the NW region between Green/LD/CHUK could well lead to no candidate from any of these 3 parties being elected. Experience from 2009 and 2014, together with current polling, suggests to me that Remain supporters should vote Labour in NW England. It is a Remain-inclined party, unlike Con/TBP.

  18. EP polling

    If you split poll numbers out thus:

    BXP 31 +/-
    CON 12 -/+
    UKIP 3

    sub-total 46

    LAB a
    LDEM b
    Green c
    NATS 4
    Chuk d

    sub-total 54

    then polls are coming in roughly the same and roughly in line with the “new ref” split of 46/54.

    the allocation on the Remain side being the key difference between polls (as RICHARD and some other folks have pointed out), so

    LAB+LDEM+Green+Chuk = 50 (ish)

    How that splits and how that is “spun” will be important in terms of seats and whether or not folks include LAB in the “Remain” total

    IMHO the split should be Arch-Leave v Arch-Remain in % terms with LAB and CON both BrINO. That will be close if Arch-Remain include the NATS and probably around:

    1/3 Arch-Leave (BXP+UKIP)
    1/3 BrINO (CON+LAB)
    1/3 Arch-Remain (LDEM+Green+ChUK+NATS)

    NB ignoring “others”, they might well sum to 3-5%ish but tricky to break them down by Brexit stance – some are very obvious but others are not.

  19. Wes

    “I’ve always assumed that Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Greens were combined in the polling figures, I[t’]s that wrong?”

    Since they are different (but allied) parties. It makes as much sense as combining the Labour and SDLP or Lib-Dems and Alliance votes.

    One can see some circumstances where that would make sense, but otherwise it’s just sloppy, irrational practice.

  20. @ TW

    There is no way, despite Keir Starmer’s maverick pronouncements, that Labour can be put in the Remain camp.

    If Labour want to “come out” and declare for full Remain (even if that’s hiding behind a rigged referendum), then their polling performance will be damaged.

  21. @ ANDREW MYERS – .”An electoral pact between the Tories and Brex must surely be odds on for the next GE?

    I would be interested to know the optimal format for such a deal and how many seats it might result in given current average polling.

    Anyone care to speculate?”

    I posted a comment on last thread about next GE being a case of the more disorganised side LOSING the GE not the other side WINNING it.

    Lunch over and back to the trenches to convince Leavers their vote still actually matters but there are lots of rumours about Spartans defecting, Farage offering “non-competes” to all those who vote down MV4, etc.

    I would expect that stays as “rumours” for now. CON MPs will want to distance themselves from May (and her deal) but they will also want to see what happens once new leader comes in and whether or not he gets the broom out and cleanses cabinet of Remainers (G.Clarke, Rudd, Gauke, Lidington and Hammond have to go IMHO if CON want any chance of being a “Proper” Leave party and having Leave voters give them a 2nd chance at Brexit)

    However, yes, clearly it would make sense in terms of winning more seats and ensuring Corbyn doesn’t get to #10 but there are some massive egos involved so it could end up being more AB-Corbyn tactical voting than “official”

  22. Polls wrong in Australia and unusually, I think, Exit polls wrong as well.

  23. @Shevii

    It depends which polls you go with – Comres, Survation and BMG do publish regional crossbreaks by the actual constituencies.

    I’ve been trying to merge them all into a model which might overcome the problems with small regional crossbreaks, but it’s tricky. At the moment I think Lib Dems national polling average is high enough that in most English constituencies (except London) they’re the only unambiguously remain party likely to take a seat, and they probably will in all of them except the North East.

    Greens on the other hand look to have their support too spread out to really take a seat – except in London where they’re doing a lot better, the South East because it has ten seats, and maybe the Scottish Greens can get one in Scotland if they’re lucky.

    But the YouGov polls are generally much better for Green than the other polls, so if you have reason to think those are the accurate ones, they could potentially win elsewhere too.

  24. Getting away from our local issues for the moment, Politico has some useful data on the predicted overall results for the EU Parliament elections:

    https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/

    Both EPP and S&D are heavy losers (46 seats and 40 seats respectively) and will need ALDE (+36 seats) for a majority. I hope ALDE will insist on ditching spitzenkandiaten and getting the best person to replace Juncker.

    Salvini’s EAPN (ex-ENF), will be the fourth-largest group on 72 seats, with 5*(+Brexit Party) [ex-EFDD] on 45 in eighth place. So it won’t matter how much Farage shouts, he won’t have any power.

  25. @Trev

    “So, as I said, then in a hung parliament BXP might be “Queen maker” for Holyrood (taking from both SNP and SCON) and “King blocker” in Westminster. If you want more devolved powers and Indy “not yet but maybe” then you might find BXP are a better partner than SLAB.”

    SNP won’t work with Bxp (and would be amazed at Bxp working with SNP). Con and SNP won’t work with each other. Lab won’t work with SNP. Lib ‘probably’ won’t work with SNP, beyond C&S.

    Now that’s information that you perhaps did not possess up to now. In that sense you were ignorant, and made the statement above. Ignorance isn’t stupidity. It’s a lack of information. I am almost completely ignorant of London Mayoral politics, and you’ll find I all but ignore it as a topic of discussion, beyond the safe, obvious stuff, or the polling data.

    What those charts don’t show you is why individuals voted for leave. Consider the polls from Panelbase (commissioned by Wings Scotland, so feel free to attack the source):

    (Article title – “Summer Cleaning”) Aug 07, 2018 – Yes voters:

    UK should remain in EU – 66%
    UK should leave EU – 30%

    Then consider this poll, which isn’t about the UK, but Scotland:

    (Article Title – “Scotland’s first choices”) Apr 12, 2019 – All respondents:

    Indy Scotland in the EU – 32%
    Scotland in both UK and EU – 30%
    Scotland in UK and outside EU – 22%
    Indy Scotland outside of EU – 8%

    That last line is basically Yes folk that want to leave the EU. All things being fairly equal, 8% of 100%, equates to around 20% of the SNP vote, if they’re all SNP voters. Less if some are not.

    There’s actually an argument that some Yes voters wanted a Brexit to create ‘material change of circumstances’ to trigger Indyref2. It’s just supposition, and would suggest a lack of foresight, given that a successful Brexit would put Scotland’s Indy plans completely at the mercy of Westminster, as opposed to almost completely, with input from the EU.

    If you choose to go searching for those articles, I suggest “Wings over Scotland polls”, and it will take you to all his polls. I recommend the second poll to which I referred for additional info. He also lists all the 1st prefs by demographic, just to make things slightly more fun (they have little importance in real polling, but are interesting).

    His last sentence is a good Brexit idea – “Who’s up for just agreeing to toss a coin for it and then never talk about any of this ever again?”

    It can’t be any less troublesome that the past 3 years. :D

  26. Trevor,

    How it is spun will only be important in the media and for those lacking sophistication within the Tory and Lan parties.

    As I say above the lack of unequivocation from the main 2 UK parties allows them (esp Lab who have more wriggle room) to analyse the results properly.

  27. CIM

    Thanks for the Survation tables (where I note that they list SGP separately from the E&W Greens).

    With only 52 from Scotland, the sample is particularly small, but FWIW (very little!) the seats would be –

    Seat 1 : SNP
    Seat 2 : SNP
    Seat 3 : Lab
    Seat 4 : SNP
    Seat 5 : SNP
    Seat 6 : LD

  28. Shevii
    Any actual evidence that people are “more cross about the coalition” in the NW than in other places? Available evidence is that most people other than Labour members are not cross enough for it to affect their vote if they think the lib dems can beat the Tories.
    They did very well in the locals in areas of strength such as Stockport and Southport, and made a few gains from Labour in all the Mets where any wards were targeted. Wigan has never in my memory been a happy Lib Dem hunting ground

  29. @STATGEEK

    Ta for the detailed reply. I think the arguments about motivation have been covered but one thing I’d pick up on the maths;

    That’s the official, sensible reason. Not likely, if you consider this:

    GRN: 4% (-2)
    UKIP: 3% (-1)
    CHUK: 3% (-1)

    Notwithstanding the points others have made about combining the Green parties, I don’t think you can compare the SNP numbers to those cos 3% in a nationally weighted GB poll is surely quite different to 3% coming exclusively from one unweighted crossbreak?

  30. Well, so much for Australian exit polls!

    :-), in

  31. @Pete B

    “They’ve probably softened the law since then though. I thought you might know.”
    ——
    Ah, well LeftieLib seems to have the scoop on that. One might expect Liberals might be up to speed on the centralising of Powers in the EU. Interesting that the law got softened. Glad you drew attention to it.

  32. @ CIM

    Actually I did the exercise on North West (but on very small crossbreaks between 171 and 241 people) and it is possible you are right.

    Hanrety Lab 4 BXP 3 Tory 1
    Survation Lab 4 BXP 2 Tory 1 LD 1
    Comres Lab 4 BXP 3 LD 1
    Opinium Lab 3 BXP 3 LD 1 Green 1
    Yougov (ancient history but with 600 sample); Lab 3 BXP 2 Green 1 and then any two seats to Tory, Lab, BXP, LD (all 4 on a D’Hondt 9%)

    So LD beats Green 3-2 and only if you include the yougov in one of those two for Greens (which is pre collapse of ChangeUK).

    Logic would run with LD beating Greens but all depends which poll you believe and how much weight you put on a 200 sample size, especially as we are waiting for a Yougov with constituency crossbreaks.

  33. TREVS

    A question for you from the tag-end of last thread:

    Why do you use “hyphens” unnecessarily for so many “words” in your posts?

    Daisie estimates that you could increase “productivity” by approximately 5% if you ceased doing so.

    Think how you’re “depriving” us…

    Paul

    [ps I am genuinely curious as language and its various manifestations intrigues me.]

  34. Statgeek
    “By its definition it will be a pointless party if Brexit happens or gets cancelled,…”

    I think if Brexit is cancelled, TBP will continue and probably swallow most remaining UKIP activists.
    ———————————-
    Shevii
    re Yougov.

    Weren’t they considered the most Tory-friendly pollster until recently? I wonder if they’ve tinkered with their methodology to correct a possible bias in that direction and overdone it a bit so that they now underestimate both Lab and Con?

  35. @Carfrew

    Of rather more importance, Scotland never had praemunire even though like England at the time they were a Roman Catholic country; it was abolished years before we joined what was then the EEC, and should probably been abolished in the 19th Century when the other restrictions on Roman Catholics were removed from the law (it always struck me as odd that the restriction on the monarch marrying a Roman Catholic was not either); and most importantly, Boris didn’t realise and thought it was still in force.

  36. Yes – looks like I jumped the gun on the Australia story, as exit polls are proving wrong. However, on the Austrian story, it’s another matter altogether.

    The far right Vice Chancellor in the coalition government has abruptly resigned, after video has emerged of him apparently offering a wealthy Russian access to contracts in exchange for a donation, and for that donation to be made in such a way as to evade legal scrutiny.

    It seems to be a case of basic corruption at it’s best, and commentators are now stating that this is probably the end of the centre and far right coalition government. It may well also have implications for the Euro results this week.

    There does appear to be a theme emerging of corruption and illegality amongst many of the new breed of far right parties, in Europe and elsewhere. Whether it is collusion with foreign interests, issues of campaign finance or misuse of data, these new groups seem to struggle with the concept of law and regulation, despite often standing on a platform of strong support for law and order and a patriotic fervour to defend their countries from the wealthy. foreign elites that they so like to take money off.

    Funny thing, that.

  37. @Pete B

    My theory is that the Yougov Conservative house effect was coming from some sampling differences – and those Con-Leave voters other polling companies weren’t picking up are now voting Brexit, which has moved their overall result from Con high/Lab low to Brex high/Lab low compared with the average.

    So no methodology change, just picking up the overall VI changes a bit differently.

  38. Looks like a big fail for polling in Australia. It has been noted upthread that even the exit poll was well out, unusually, although there has also been some comment that it wasn’t as bad as it looked, as there was a swing to Labor in both safe Labor and safe Liberal seats, while a swing the other way in marginals, superimposed on the usual Aussie pattern of differences from state to state. A good hard look at Queensland is required, as this is where the Liberal-Nationals won the election, against all expectations.

  39. OLDNAT – “One can see some circumstances where that would make sense, but otherwise it’s just sloppy, irrational practice.”

    Well alright, but do they do it or not?

  40. JONESINBANGOR

    Have you seen Labour’s polling? They are losing huge numbers of Remain voters like me to the Lib Dem’s or Greens. If they come out fully for Remain their polling will significantly improve.

  41. Why are the BBC misreporting Starmer’s
    ” they could seek to break the impasse by putting a confirmatory vote on the face of a bill” (They being HMG).

    They are saying he says there should be.

    Not biased just crap lazy journalism

  42. R & D:

    You obviously haven`t seen my answer on the last thread.

    And the Trevors know the difference between hyphens and dashes, as their message at 12.43 above shows.

  43. Shevii

    I admire your efforts at exploring tactical voting for the NW constituency and working from the dodgy data sets provided by different polling firms.

    I haven`t responded to your (? not-serious) request for predictions of what parties will take the last seats in all the EP constituencies. I don`t even think a full-time polllng expert would attempt that, so there`s no way an ecologist who spends less than 5% on UKPR has a hope of providing sensible answers.

    Also, I shy away from making comments about regions about which I have little knowledge, which rules out the Midlands and SW England for me. Whereas from growing up in Lancashire, family there, regular visits, following the sports results, I feel I can put out useful messages.

    And for your 8 seats, I still feel 1 LDem, 1 Green is more likely than 2 LDems.

  44. Jonathan Stuart-Brown,

    I’d like to disagree on two things:

    1. Potential for BXP “imploding like UKIP.” It is important to remember the reason UKIP disintegrated, which was the Leave success in the Brexit vote. Much like BXP, UKIP was only ever a single-issue party campaigning to leave the EU. After the referendum therefore, most of its voters couldn’t see the point in continuing to vote for it when it had won on its single issue. Subsequently its remaining leaders cemented this outsider status by deciding to go for the fringe fascist/nationalist vote in order to at least get enough votes to continue to exist, which (together with the lack of Farage) left them unable to capitalise on the return of the Brexit issue.

    The lesson we can take from that is that BXP’s fate is tied to the UK’s EU membership. If we leave, it will likely fade away very quickly (again – it would be a single-issue party without its single-issue); but if we do not leave then they will likely be a force in opposition for a good few years, as the sole unequivocal voice of pro-Leave voters.

    2. Farage gaining reflected popularity from association with Trump. I find this extremely unlikely and would rather say that he risks damaging himself by association. Trump is deeply, deeply unpopular in the UK, including among voters for right-wing parties. According to YouGov’s polling tracker for example, even among baby boomers (the prime Leave demographic) only 17% have a positive opinion of him (1). I think it’s fair to say that Trump – loud, fat, arrogant, deceitful, extravagant and belligerent – represents a combination of all the negative stereotypes of Americans in Britain. There is little that Farage can gain by being seen to associate with him, and a lot to lose.

    (1) – https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Donald_Trump

  45. @ JIB – I agree, however, I would expect Remain will try to “spin” the results as best they can and only by adding in LAB does it seem likely they will beat BXP (+CON+UKIP)

    @ STATGEEK – A stup!d person would reply to a post without reading it, or perhaps just too ignorant to understand it?

    I’ll quote this part of my 12:13pm

    “Which party is CURRENTLY fishing for the Yes-Leave vote (most of which was just about still SNP in GE’17, SCON took a chunk of it but that was before Ruth+Mundell backed BrINO and sold that faction out)”

    adding emphasis to the key word that you maybe missed?

    SCON = No-BriNO
    SNP=Yes-Arch-Remain (full EU not EFTA or an arrangement sans CFP)

    AW has warned about using polling info from campaign groups but happy to accept the Yes-Leave group has dropped from GE’17 to Apr’19 because no party has been fishing for that vote.

    This might because Remainers consider BrINO to be Brexit where as Leavers see it as still likely to be trapped in the “bad bits” (eg CFP) or as I said:

    “Ruth+Mundell backed BrINO and sold that faction out”

    For many Scottish Leavers then perhaps seeing May’s Brexit was unlikely to mean fully exiting CFP has been the reason Leave (and hence the sub-group Yes-Leave) has dropped. Why Leave if you haven’t actually left?

    Sturgeon has had an easy time mocking Ruth and Mundell for backing BrINO – full credit to her for being an excellent politician and knowing the point to press.

    Anyway, I’m keen to see a new and detailed Scotland only poll to explore the new x-breaks. BXP have gained a lot of ground since the WoS polls you mention and my guess is they’ve taken a piece of SNP’17.

    PS No leader who might win a majority is likely to say they will work with anyone – until the election results are in and they see the options in front of them. For parties being punished by FPTP then they should seek allegiances but too many egos and bad blood in most cases.

    I don’t know (or especially care) who Sturgeon seeks to work with if she needs to go beyond SG next time. We’ll have to wait and see.

    I’m sure OLDNAT can remind folks that Stedman-Bryce (#1 on BXP list for Scotland EPs) has plenty of Soc-Med pictures of himself mixing with SNP folks. Seems he has some contacts.

    PPS You might also care to read this. BXP weren’t campaigning back in Apr (when WoS commissioned the polls you mention).

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/17/nigel-farage-attacks-snps-claims-about-post-brexit-scotland

  46. Perhaps at least some of the YouGov differences are due to the likelihood to vote weighting.

    I noticed most LAB/CON voters are not really motivated to vote in these elections per their mega poll table. (what’s the point, we are leaving anyway, so they will never take their seats?/ or they are making such a hash of everything I’m going to sit this one out but I can’t bear to vote for someone else?)

    But the Brexiteers and Remainers are. (we need to send a message that we want a no deal Brexit/ second referendum?).

    You can definitely see that pattern in their tables, and anecdotally, that is what I am hearing, so I tend towards YouGov as being most accurate.

  47. @Mike Pearce – I think JiB is a Labour Leaver which somewhat colours his view of what the party should do

    @TW Your big picture summary that the country (not current Parliament) is split quite deeply between Remainers, No Dealers and Dealers (although you use different terms) has looked like a sensible analysis for a while and every new poll seems to reinforce that. It also means that for either of the big two parties to put all their eggs in one of those three baskets would in the long run be quite dangerous – which is why neither May nor Corbyn have. However your suggestion that a proper Tory Leaver PM should do that looks very risky – which maybe why Johnson is already talking about renegotiating May’s deal (a fool’s errand of course) rather than simply walking out

  48. @Leftieliberal

    “Of rather more importance, Scotland never had praemunire even though like England at the time they were a Roman Catholic country; it was abolished years before we joined what was then the EEC, and should probably been abolished in the 19th Century when the other restrictions on Roman Catholics were removed from the law (it always struck me as odd that the restriction on the monarch marrying a Roman Catholic was not either); and most importantly, Boris didn’t realise and thought it was still in force.”

    ——

    It’s possible they didn’t know we were going to join the EEC in the 19th century, though. Or that we might leave. It could have saved all the bother! (If we leave, we might have to reimplement Praemuniwotsit).

  49. @ Davwell- it was just banter in your response to your belief that you could easily work out where the best tactical vote was, although I would have loved to see how right you were and on a site which is meant to be full of polling experts it would have been a good competition.

    I know I have failed in the past guessing D’Hondt for my region on a tactical vote to keep out BNP (obviously I’d have failed on 1 vote but picked the wrong option anyway for closest).

1 2 3 4 20