Today’s Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes.

Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from late April. Full tables are here.

ComRes for BrexitExpress have voting intentions of CON 19%(-4), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 14%(+7), BREX 20%(+6), GRN 5%(+2), ChUK 7%(-2), UKIP 3%(-2). Fieldwork appears to be all on Thursday, and changes are since mid-April.

Both polls have Labour and the Conservatives rapidly shedding support, with support growing for the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party. I suspect we are seeing a combination of factors at work here, most obviously there is the continuing collapse in Conservative support over Brexit, a trend we’ve been seeing since the end of March, with support moving to parties with a clearer pro-Brexit policy. Originally that favoured UKIP too, now it is almost wholly going to the Brexit party.

Secondly there is the impact of the local elections and the Liberal Democrat successes there. For several years the Lib Dems seemed moribund and struggled to be noticed. The coverage of their gains at the local elections seems to have given them a solid boost in support, more so than the other anti-Brexit parties – for now at least, they seem to be very much alive & well again.

Third is the impact of the European elections. People are obviously more likely to vote for smaller parties in the European elections and in current circumstances obviously appear more willing to lend their vote to a different party in protest over Brexit. To some degree this will be influencing other voting intention figures as well, so I would treat Westminster voting intention figures with some scepticism in the run up to the European elections (and probably in the immediate aftermath as well, when those parties who do well will likely recieve a further boost in support).

In short, these are startling results – but we have seen startling results before (look at the polls at the height of SDP support, or just after the expenses scandal broke, or during Cleggmania). These are indeed very unusual results – the combined level of Con-Lab support in these polls are some of the very lowest we’ve seen, the Conservative share in the ComRes poll almost their lowest ever (I can find only a single Gallup poll with a lower figure, from back in 1995). What we cannot tell at the moment is whether this portends a serious readjustment of the parties, or whether things will return to more familar patterns once the European elections have passed, the Conservatives have a new leader and (assuming it ever happens) Brexit is in some way settled.

Both polls also had voting intention figures for the European Parliament elections

Opinium Euro VI – CON 11%, LAB 21%, LDEM 12%, BREX 34%, GRN 8%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 4%
ComRes Euro VI – CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, BREX 27%, GRN 8%, ChUK 6%, UKIP 3%

Both have the Brexit party ahead, though they are doing considerably better with Opinium than with ComRes. In both cases the Liberal Democrats have recieved a post-local election boost, putting them above the Conservatives in European voting intentions.


760 Responses to “New Opinium and ComRes polls”

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  1. At the risk of coming across as a ‘barely pubescent schoolboy who needs to get a life’ I will reply to Matts question above ”Keir Starmer says brexit deal only likely to pass with confirmatory vote so why the ambiguity from Labour.”

    Answer, technically Starmer is giving an opinion on HOC maths so still on side but in reality a hard-core around Corbyn is resisting.

    John McDonnell reached the same view as Stamer some months ago as have many others in the shadow cabinet including many sceptics like Raynor (even Gardner will acquiesce).
    Milne, Lavery and Burgon are the problems while Long-Bailey desperately wants to be the leader after Corbyn.
    McDonnell decided she was not up to the job and she fell out of favour only getting back in when Corbyn and McDonnell’s relationship became strained last summer. I reckon she thinks her best chance of being leader is to be seen as the biggest loyalist among the contenders but that bit is speculation on my part.

    In any event Labour will move to Ref 2 after the EP Election with timing determined by Tory Party and/or HMG actions.

  2. Pete B

    “In the meantime we’ll have agreed deals with USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many others.”

    It should be relatively easy to agree trade deals with other states, if you give them everything they want.

    It’s agreeing the details of a deal which is beneficial to both parties that does (and should) take a lot of time and hard negotiation.

    Where one side’s position is relatively weak, but they are politically desperate for a deal, then that state is doomed to get “a bad deal”.

    Of course, you may be suggesting that “USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many others” are all in that weak position, and the UK is uniquely strong……..

  3. @ DavWel

    For East of England, I got 3 BXP, 1 LAB, 1 CON, 1 LD and 1 CHUK. No GRN. I was using the table on page 72, with 13 Greens counted, and 16 CHUK. The errors on these numbers are huge of course. But it did afterwards occur to me that one CHUK in East is perhaps not so unlikely, since Cambridgeshire is a sort of home from home for Tiggers. There will certainly be many anti-Brexit votes available round there – whether Heidi Allen’s presence can persuade those votes to go to CHUK rather than the other options is something we’ll find out in two week’s time. I suspect one old friend of mine living in Cambridge (who was always a staunch Tory) may be tempted that way. He’s very angry at Brexit, and I don’t quite see him going LibDem or Green.

  4. [email protected] CHRISTIE: – “Thankfully in England we have a safety net such as the Brexit party and to an extent UKIP so disenfranchised people don’t fall into the grubby hands of the BNP, EDFL and others.”

    I think you might have missed or misunderstood what UKIP has become now.

    Be fair, he has a point. It is every bit as significant as saying that Hitler was a safety net which prevented Europe falling into the grip of Stalinism.

  5. TO

    Though Adolf didn’t have the good sense to register his “party” as a private limited company, with himself as “as a person with significant control” and leader – and no members.

    Had he done so, he could have avoided all that messy business of purges.

  6. @imJam Answer, technically Starmer is giving an opinion on HOC maths so still on side but in reality a hard-core around Corbyn is resisting.

    thank you for this analysis. it is what it feels like from the outside.

  7. JJ

    re your comments on Long-Bailey:

    “I reckon she thinks her best chance of being leader is to be seen as the biggest loyalist among the contenders but that bit is speculation on my part.”

    Sounds like a very bad case of delusions of competence.

  8. @ADW
    Which proves my point of not hardly any

    Okay another prediction from your ‘sources’
    @ADW
    ‘Actually managed to speak to one of the three wastrels I know (as opposed to texting)

    Their belief is that it will play out this way on Tuesday.

    1. May’s deal scrapes through with ERG/DUP support, we leave no later than 30 June.

    2. If the Kyle-Wilson Amendment passes, May’s deal will fall by quite a large margin as the ERG & DUP will definately vote against it. At that point, it will cease to exist, thus scupperinmg the Kyle-Wilson because it will be an Amendment to something that doesn’t exist

    3. If it comes to a VoNC on Wednesday because of (2), a substantial chunk of the ERG will Abstain, forcing the ‘No Deal’ scenario.

    The EU. It is being briefed to them on their (Tory) side that the EU see things totally differently to how our Parliament does, and Parliament is living in a dream world if it thinks it is dictating anything. Should May’s deal pass, the EU will be sympathetic to a short extension, possibly as late as 30 June but certainly no longer. If May’s deal falls (and by implication May as well) then by Thursday if whoever is running the shop wishes an extension, then it has to be for something approved by Parliament with no if’s but’s or maybes. They will not allow May’s then dead deal to form any basis for any other proposal. They will not entertain any extension application at that point just to allow our Parliament to continue indulging itself – it must by thursday know exactly what it wants and it must be agreeable to the EU. They will allow a long extension for talks on a specific plan with a defined outcome. If the UK can’t or won’t produce that by Thursday then we leave on 29 March or we revoke. They are tired of us and tired of repeated ‘guarentees’ the government has given.

    And no they aren’t joking and yes they are prepared to push us out on March 29 if we can’t, by Thursday, produce either a pass for May’s deal or a comprehensive alternative agreeable to them that they know in advance has the support of Parliament.

    Next week is going to be fun and games – especially behind the scenes on Monday in preparation for tuesday.

    Their (the tory I spoke with) belief is Kyle-Wison will fail, May’s deal will then pass by the skin of it’s teeth and on Thursday the EU will grant the short extension.

    March 17th, 2019 at 12:22 pm’

    I suggest your ‘sources’ are not very reliable

  9. @ADW
    Which proves my point of not hardly any

    Okay another prediction from your ‘sources’

    @ADW
    ‘Swappeda few texts with the 3 MPs I know during the evening an late on. (it’s reached a stage where I’m embarrassed to admit I know MPs)

    Anyways. the 3 (2 Tory, 1 Labour) have absolutely no idea what is going on as it’s all taking place at very high level. They say anything is possible from accidental No Deal all the way through to Revokation and no matter what, there is going to be a s**t-storm both with the electorate and within the parties. They say that the big fear is that the EU won’t play ball over an extension or will not play ball the way May asks for it (ie if she asks for short, only offer long. If she asks for long, only offer short etc). All three believe however that the likeliest outcome is either going to be May’s deal passes sometime late next week or a General Election. A long extension is unpalatable to most MPs, especially if the EU insist on them working through the summer to sort this and cancelling recess.

    One mentioned UK lorry drivers threatening to block roads and ports all over the UK this weekend unless the government gets a grip and implements Brexit, on time deal or not and concerns this may spread into other sectors.

    March 19th, 2019 at 1:17 am’

  10. @ADW
    Which proves my point of not hardly any

    Another prediction from your ‘sources’

    @ADW
    OK, Its late in the day and one of the three belives he knows. It makes sense – which means he’s probably drunk.

    May submits her letter asking to extend Article 50, until Nune 30th, on condition she delivers the WA approved in full by Parliament, by midday 29 March and no more waiting for votes etc and if she doesn’t then we leave tat 2300 that night.

    The EU agree. And Re-iterate in writing that no more extensions after this, that the extra time is purely to implement not negotiate.

    May summons Parliament early next week ( at this point follow a calender) . Tells Parliament thats it, the game is up, they will be voting on the deal as it currently stands, on the Wednesday or Thursday and it either pasee complete by then and we leave onJune 30, or we leave with no deal a couple of days later without one.

    If Parliament tries to vet clever wwith things that cant be delivered before March 29 – such as Kyle-Wilson etc, tbe deadline cant be met and no deal it is.

    Remainers have to vote for it to prevent no deal, ERG ant have no deal and even the Speaker has to allow the vote be ause if he doesn’t he causes no deal.

    It actually sounds credible and is certainly achievable.

    March 19th, 2019 at 11:22 pm’

    How many more do I need to show before you agree that your characterisation that ‘hardly any’ of your sources predictions were wrong is in fact wrong

  11. Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    6h
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 24% (-5)
    LAB: 24% (-5)
    BXP: 18% (+3)
    LDM: 16% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (+2)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-9 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    6h
    European Election Voting Intention:

    BXP: 34% (+4)
    LAB: 16% (-5)
    LDM: 15% (+5)
    GRN: 11% (+2)
    CON: 10% (-3)
    CHUK: 5% (-4)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-9 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

  12. YouGov

    Polling at the same time as ComRes YG have come up with a very different Brexit/Lab result.

    LDs and Greens will like the result though.

  13. @Jim jam you have consistently said that Labour will switch to a people’s vote after the EU elections. you have also, as generally acknowledged on this site, been consistently right on all things labour.

    What I can’t see is why, if Labour is going to switch, it is not in its interest to do so as early as possible. Is it that those who want the switch know that Labour is going to do very badly in these elections more or less come what may, and they want this to be part of the case for the switch and not an argument against it? Conversely do those against the switch feel that that the longer Labour remains on the fence the more difficult it will be to get off it? In other words, there isn’t really a case for not switching from the point of view of the party or the country but there is an advantage in terms of winning the argument? So both sides are settling for the status quo for the time being.

  14. @Pete B – “So what? In the meantime we’ll have agreed deals with USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many others. The EU will be the ones with the begging bowl.”

    I’m really somewhat surprised you posted this, given the evidence already before us.

    For a start, the EU already has a deal with Canada, but on the matter of real world events, I’m assuming you aren’t up to date on the state of play with the ‘roll over’ deals we are negotiating with the states already in deals with the EU?

    Rather than being simple photocopy jobs, which is what we were promised, many of these remain incomplete, and those that have been signed are not as good as the deals with the EU. This hasn’t been widely publicised, but the UK government’s presentation of the deals agreed skips the point that they are different deals to the ones we already have with these countries.

    This rather demonstrates the longstanding point many remainers made, that independent deals would most likely be inferior to the EU led deals, because their bargaining power is (roughly speaking) about 9 times greater than ours.

    Your last line about the EU getting out it’s begging bowl offers a fascinating insight into the misguided view of the relative influence of the UK and EU amongst Brexiters. Around the world we are being told that Brexit is diminishing UK’s influence in all kinds of areas, yet somehow the greatest damage will be inflicted on the EU.

    If this was a generally held view, I’m interested in how you view the fact the the EU has singularly failed to capitulate on any of the UK’s Brexit demands within the negotiations.

  15. Neil,

    MPs are expert of letting people think they agree with them.

    ‘What you are saying makes sense’

    ‘You seem on the ball’

    ‘You could well be right’

    So person spouts their theory which may or may not be credible but as long it is possible MP nods and gives impression said theory is on the money.

    ADW’s Labour MP is particularly ill-informed or good at letting ADW think their (ADWs) analysis which invariably reflect badly on Labour are accurate.

    Or their is another explanation.

  16. Allan Christie,
    “Thankfully in England we have a safety net such as the Brexit party and to an extent UKIP so disenfranchised people don’t fall into the grubby hands of the BNP, EDFL and others. ”

    Surely there is reasonable evidence that all these are one and the same, or the exact same people are strongly involved in them? Farage had to abandon UKIP and start again because it had been overrun, and I dont see why the same will not happen to the new party?

  17. TrigGuy @ 11.16 pm

    Many thanks for that prediction for the East of England constituency, with 1 seat LibDem and 1 seat CHUK, obtained from the ComRes data set.

    I was thinking that the “establishment Greens” working professionally in the area, and adding in those in the strong Plant Science departments at Cambridge and Leicester universities, might be wary of actually voting for the Green Party, as too extreme.

    I also have noticed LibDems doing well in the other polling news, so our family might be opting for them in Scotland.

    Hopefully these new MEPs will function for some years, and influence EU policy. Some sources of EU funding for the UK I see have had their deadlines of March 31st 2019 put back to October 2020, for new applications.

  18. Charles,

    A vote for BXP is essentially for leave at without a deal if necessary a vote for unequivocal remain parties is over 90% an endorsement of ref 2.

    If Labour have a clear position it boxes in as the aggregate votes on either side will be spun as a clear message. Labour being ambiguous prevents this happening.

    Many would have liked an earlier move but can live with after the EP Elections to allow time for more genuine sceptics to get round to reluctantly accepting

  19. Charles – I did caveat that the PM being forced out in early June may delay Labour jumping as they can reasonably say we want to see who is the new PM, see what their stance is and of course call for a GE.

  20. PETE B
    R Huckle
    “Do most people realise that the negotiations after the withdrawal stage, could take many years ?”

    So what? In the meantime we’ll have agreed deals with USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many others. The EU will be the ones with the begging bowl.

    May 12th, 2019 at 11:02 pm
    —————————————-
    Yeah, can’t wait for Trump to get his grubby hands on the NHS.

  21. Jeremy Hunt trying to spin it that if the UK is in a CU with the EU, a TTIP between the EU and US would open up the NHS to US private health providers; the Irony!

  22. @JimJam

    “John McDonnell reached the same view as Stamer some months ago as have many others in the shadow cabinet including many sceptics like Raynor (even Gardner will acquiesce).
    Milne, Lavery and Burgon are the problems while Long-Bailey desperately wants to be the leader after Corbyn.”

    Thanks for the informative update and while your ear to the ground doesn’t quite unearth the lurid and melodramatic titbits of ADW, I rather suspect they’re somewhat more reliable and fact-based!

    McDonnell is becoming an evermore interesting figure within Labour and the broader centre-left of politics. I don’t instinctively warm to him as a personality, but I’m slowly coming to respect him more and I think he may well be someone pretty near to the centre of power in Corbyn’s Labour Party, carrying more intellectual heft than people like Budgen, Lavery and Long Bailey and more political leverage than apparatchiks like Milne. He may be the go-to man in terms of discerning the party’s likely direction and I suspect he’s a bit of a party kingmaker and power-broker too.

    Like you, I get the sense that he arrived at the inevitability of a confirmatory referendum a while back and all his recent interviews suggest this to be the case. He’s still talking code, but it’s becoming more decipherable. His voice might be the one to listen to on this, maybe more than Corbyn’s. By the way, I’m intrigued by your comments about the growing distance between the two men. I’ve suspected that too. We need to keep any eye on how that dynamic develops.

    It’s also interesting to see how he’s now at the centre of a range of quite encouraging idea and policy generation initiatives on the British centre-left. Will Hutton, no instinctive McDonnellite he, wrote an interesting piece on this in yesterday’s Observer. This sort of stuff encourages me about the long-term future of centre-left politics. One of my problems with Corbyn up to now has been that I haven’t found him a very interesting politician. He doesn’t seem intellectually curious enough for me about the modern world and seems backward looking when it comes to solutions. Conservative with a small “c” if you like.

    McDonnell seems altogether a more interesting politician. He seems interested in power too. I know he horrifies Conservatives, but that’s no bad thing! :-)

    Hutton’s article:-

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/12/left-is-fizzing-with-ideas-for-smarter-economy-but-can-labour-profit-from-them

  23. CB – McDonnell is intellectually impressive and consistent even if one disagrees with him. A bit like John Biffen in the past or Gove perhaps now.

  24. @JimJam

    “CB – McDonnell is intellectually impressive and consistent even if one disagrees with him. A bit like John Biffen in the past or Gove perhaps now.”

    Interesting comparisons. What about a latter day Gordon Brown? Two very different personalities, with differing approaches to democratic socialism, but Brown gave New Labour its intellectual zip and maybe McDonnell is doing the same for Corbyn’s Labour. I’d agree with you about John Biffen from a centre right perspective, but Gove? Too journalistic for me and not someone I’d recognise as a deep thinker. Biffen au contraire. Used to like him. A latter day Rab Butler of British Toryism.

    Talking about the green shoots of a possible revival of social democratic/centre-left political parties in Europe, following Sanchez’s success in the recent Spanish elections, it’s fascinating to see what’s happening in Denmark. Mette Frederiksen, the leader of the Danish Social Democrats looks on course to win the forthcoming elections in that country. Her policy platform is intriguing; a hard line on immigration but quite radical and left wing economic and social policies. A winning policy prescription for the centre left? Let’s see, and Frederiksen is not without her critics, but is it much different from Corbyn’s Labour, I wonder? Corbyn seems dead against free movement in any sort of Lexit/soft Brexit he’s envisaging.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/denmark-election-matte-frederiksen-leftwing-immigration

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/denmark-election-matte-frederiksen-leftwing-immigration

  25. Quite a spread between the Opinium, Comres and Yougov polls for the EU elections:

    BRX: 34 / 27 / 34
    CON: 11 / 13 / 10
    LAB: 21 / 25 / 16
    LD : 12 / 14 / 15
    GRN: 8 / 8 / 11
    CHK: 3 / 6 / 5
    UKP: 4 / 3 / 3

    Mainly the spread is in the Brexit and Labour votes – the rest are all within margin-of-error. Nothing obvious in the tables as to where this spread is coming from – BREX picking up fewer 2016 Leavers, LAB picking up more 2016 Remainers in the Comres.

    It’ll make a pretty substantial difference to the results which of those (if any) is right, and it’ll be interesting to see if there’s any changes made to the polling models as a result for those who get it wrong.

  26. Another “Tactical Voting” website for Remain in EPs.

    https://www.remainvoter.com/

    You’ll have to wait until 18th of May for them to actually tell what to do though (fair enuf, polls will move around).

    Also a good link to explain some of the issues. Clearly shows that #seats in each constituency is important.

    “In the absence of any pact or coordination between pro-Remain parties, pro-Remain voters are facing a tricky task when looking for ways to vote tactically in order to maximise the seat share of pro-Remain parties. Importantly, they would be ill-advised to apply identical tactics across the board”

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/05/10/when-a-tactical-vote-may-not-work-the-complex-choice-facing-remainers-in-the-ep-elections/

    Pretty sure Arch-Remain will simply focus on summing up the %s and Starmer telling folks LAB are pro-PV puts LAB back in the mix there.

    Sum of Arch-Remain + LAB will likely beat Arch-Leave + CON in % terms so Remainers can say they “won”. Surely better to say LAB are Remain – non?

  27. CB – Gove was perhaps a stretch but I was trying to be non-partisan and include a current Tory. George Freeman maybe?

  28. This euro election is really getting a by-election feel about it.

    If the next set of Euro election polls were to put Lib Dem above Labour, I could see Lib Dem finishing well above 20%. Two horse race and all that. Of course at least 30% of the votes have already been cast, which will reduce the effect

    I listened to Tom Watson on R4 this morning. Labour policy seems to be “say enough contradictory things in the same interview and hope people only hear the things they want to hear”

    It did work in 2017 as far as Europe was concerned (and some other things like “sorting Graduate debt”), but then the two horse race was clearly Lab vs Con.

  29. @ANDREW111

    I listened to Tom Watson on R4 this morning. Labour policy seems to be “say enough contradictory things in the same interview and hope people only hear the things they want to hear”
    It did work in 2017 as far as Europe was concerned (and some other things like “sorting Graduate debt”), but then the two horse race was clearly Lab vs Con.

    I think they will come unstuck, I will vote lib dem for the first time since I started voting 40 years ago. Have always voted Labour but their wishy washy stance over Brexit has been a deal breaker for me. Listening to what Barry Gardiner had to say yesterday was the final straw for me

    I will probably return to Labour come a General Election but that is not certain. I suspect there are quite a few people like me thinking much the same

  30. @ IMPERIUM3 – “In discussing the Brexit party we should always cast our minds back to 1983, where the SDP scored 25% of the vote but only got 23 seats to show for it”

    AW mentioned this in the lead so lets look at 1983

    Seats (%)

    CON 397 (42.4%)
    LAB 209 (27.6%)
    LDEM/SDP 23 (25.4%)

    Some additional parties in the 3 nations of course largest of which at the time was

    UUP 11 (1.1% of UK vote)

    So GB wide we only had 3 parties – how many now?

    Anyway best to take a look at the map of votes:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_Kingdom_general_election.

    LAB were down to “core” heartland seats with CON keeping all their “core” seats and winning most marginal CON-LAB swing seats.

    LDEM/SDP helped CON out as they took just enough votes from LAB to ensure LAB lost loads of marginal seats but did little damage to CON.

    My “TIPPING POINT” post (see page 1) maybe missed of the first “tipping point” as we’ve already past that (CON’s “culmination point” as a party able to win a majority was when they let Farage back by enabling the 2nd extension that requires the EPs)

    As per 1983 example then at these kind of levels BXP are doing to CON what LDEM/SDP did to LAB. By splitting mostly the CON vote you’ll get numbers not dissimilar to 1983 but with different parties of course and a 4th player (see MATT126 numbers and my reply on page2).
    BXP, by splitting mostly the CON vote, will hand loads of marginal seats to LAB without getting many for themselves.

    ie on CURRENT polling LAB will easily win most seats and be pretty close to outright majority

    I was looking BEYOND current polling with a “plausible scenario” of LOW CURRENT PROBABILITY (8% in bookies) of happening.

    Leave are still polling 45%+ so IMHO it is certainly plausible a “single” Leave party could get to 25%+ across E+W which would be 35%+ in many areas (remember how many seats voted Leave in 2016 in E+W) and 10% or less in Remainia seats (i.e. most of London, most of Scotland, Bristol, Brighton, etc).

    I’m not saying it WILL happen but I’m shocked folks can’t even see it as a POSSIBILITY.

    However, 1983 is relevant in the “Centre” ground and we see this in current prediction models (eg Electoral Calculus). LDEM and ChUK are grabbing a few % from LAB (lowering the hurdle to beat LAB) – if that was to continue then they’d lower the hurdle further but in most cases be very unlikely to get to 30%+ themselves. (ie they simply make the task of winning the seat easier for someone else – as we saw with CON scooping up so many “marginals” in 1983)

    If you want to become a new party and “win” from the Centre you need to destroy the current contenders in the “Centre” (easy task for Macron in France as other parties were imploding – just as CON are now). ChUK tried that but it doesn’t seem to be working for them as LDEM are rebuilding (ChUK possibly 5yrs too late). LDEM might dream they can monopolise the “Centre” but not only must they destroy ChUK (quite likely) but they also need to grab a large chunk from one/both of the two “Broad Churches” (see previous posts where I’ve broken down the big 2 to see where their current VI are going – look at the %s “available”)

    Hence, it is far easier to win from a “wing” that has been vacated by all other parties who are left all fighting for the same vote. Corbyn would love to win from the “left-wing” of course but if the next GE is Remain v Leave then those might well be the defining “wings” from which to “park your tanks” (or ice cream van!)

    In the classic beach and ice-cream van example consider:

    200m long beach. Arch-Remain one end (0m), Arch-Leave the other (200m)

    At the moment (E+W) we have (crude illustration):

    0m – no one going all out Revoke in E+W
    30m – Greens selling Green lollies
    49.9m – LDEM selling Centre-ish lollies
    50.1m – ChUK selling Centre-ish lollies but low on stock
    80m – LAB selling LoC ice creams
    110m – CON selling RoC ice creams

    huge gap on the beach and in the “market”

    200m – UKIP selling toxic waste and out of stock

    So if BXP want to take most money (seats) with their van
    where should they park it and what should they sell?

    130m – BXP selling everything to everyone: LoC, RoC, lolllies, ice-cream, beer, cake, candy, whatever folks want as they have no manifesto (ie constructive ambiguity – you want it, they can sell it to you and on when they become HMG would they actually have to deliver it to you)

    However, I’ll shut up as my partisan bias means it is in my interest for folks not to see this as possible. So folks should go ahead and split the Remain vote across as many parties as they like (CON also Remain of course, BrINO is basically Remain for many Leavers).

    Not like any seat has ever been won on 30% of vote or less is it?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election_records#Lowest_winning_share_of_the_vote

    Note where many of these examples are: places with multiple parties at the time (NI, Scotland, Wales). Only now we have 4+ parties in England as well (which without upsetting the NATS is still where the lions share of marginal seats exist)

    @ PETER (SNP) – Yeah, whatever. Never gonna happen. Whatever you say George ;)

  31. Yougov tabs are up:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/y6sb0oystc/TheTimes_190509_VI_w.pdf

    on those Scottish crossbreaks LDem would get a seat and the last one would be between Green, Lab, SNP and BXP with the latter .5% ahead.

    In London, it would be 2 for BXP, 2 for Lib Dem, and one each for Lab, Green, Chuk and Con. Lab get the d’Hondt wooden spoon. If votes continue to go from Lab and Chuk to LD, they will get 3.

    The regions elsewhere don’t correspond to constituencies, but Lib Dems are second to BXP in “rest of south”. If we assumed those % applied to SE England, BXP would get 5, LD 2, and one each for Lab, Con and Green.

    In recent years Yougov have been favourable to L Dem and bad for Labour of course. The current position is probably in the middle of the figures posted by CIM above. There is a very clear swing since the local elections of about 5% from Lab to Lib Dem in all the polls. (note there have been 1.5 Comres polls since the locals, so you have to go back to the April poll). What is not known is whether that effect is temporary (swing back to Lab) a one off (now more or less the position), or a trend (Lib Dems second to BXP by 23rd May)
    I think if Labour are going to stem the tide Corbyn will have to come out and say “we back a People’s vote in all circumstances”. Letting the minions say almost that will not do the trick. But trust in Corbyn has eroded a lot since 2017 amongst Remainers, IMO.

  32. “Interesting comparisons. What about a latter day Gordon Brown? Two very different personalities, with differing approaches to democratic socialism, but Brown gave New Labour its intellectual zip and maybe McDonnell is doing the same for Corbyn’s Labour.”

    ——

    There are definite similarities. Like Blair, Corbyn is more into the equality and social justice stuff, including in foreign affairs. Like Brown, McDonnell is more interested in the economics.

    Where new Labour struggled, was with alternative paradigms or structures of organisation. This became a problem for old Labour too.

    (In part, it’s a big area of difference with proper Liberals, who tend to prefer more decentralised structures).

    In the end, New Labour’s approach to structures either exhibited some old Labour-style problems, or introduced new problems.

    Thus, they set up NHS Direct, which had its virtues, but it’s not protected, so it’s easy for Tories to either sell it off or close it down.

    The alternative approach, things like PFI, saddles organisations with lots of debt.

    The solution for Labour, is possibly things like setting up things like trusts, more independent. There are other structures to explore, like the municipal socialism Syzygy brought up, but you can see the EU moving to stymie it.

    This is a major background of politics. What organisational structures not only work, but can survive the attentions of rival parties. It’s not clear to me where McDonnell stands on this. Maybe the Labour activists know.

  33. YG tabs are up. As I’m sure folks (eg Starmer!) have spotted they have a very low EP % for LAB but the averages of all the recent polls are similar for most other parties. Anyone care to do a summary?

    Anyway. YG article with link to tabs:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/13/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-34-lab-1

  34. If anyone from YouGov of other polling companies is reading then please, please, please split EP x-breaks by EP constituencies.

    For the 9 English constituencies then please use MRP due to the smaller samples (not appropriate to use that for Wales and Scotland due to the additional NAT party in both cases).

  35. Carfew agree 100% with

    ”There are definite similarities. Like Blair, Corbyn is more into the equality and social justice stuff, including in foreign affairs. Like Brown, McDonnell is more interested in the economics”

    Generally the Economics and Social justice drivers will align as addressing social justice more often than not requires economic levers.

  36. Agree that it’s annoying YouGov haven’t done a EP constituency cross-break. I haven’t read the whole Times article, but in the non-paywalled bit, there’s a nice piece of spin (ie a lie) on the results:

    “The poll indicates that Labour is also haemorrhaging support to Nigel Farage’s new party, with its vote share down five points to 16 per cent”

    The tables clearly show that 2017 Lab have mostly gone to LibDem and Green (21% and 15%), with only 13% going to BRX or UKIP. Also 5% to the Tiggers. So are the politicians taking notice of what journalists say, or do they actually read the numbers? I suspect I know the answer.

  37. Scotland’s CBs have changed. Start with Westminster:

    SNP 56
    Lib 3

    Con and Lab wiped out. 100% Pro-remain parties.

    Now Europe:

    SNP 1/38
    Bxt 2/21
    SNP 3/19
    SNP 4/12.6
    Lib 5/11
    Bxt 6/10.5

    Lab 0/10
    Con 0/6

    Con and Lab wiped out. 66.6% Remain to 33.3% Leave parties.

  38. Not sure anyone posted the link to ComRes yet:

    https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-voting-intention-may-2019/

    They do split out by EP constituencies but sample is small in most cases (shame they didn’t use MRP in the English ones)

    @ CIM – thanks for the summary, it wasn’t showing when I asked for a summary. With the choppiness of polling at the moment then IMHO all 3 are within MoE boundaries. The big polling “error” risk this time will be which party wins “turnout”.

    Hopefully AW will give us a run down of the different methodologies each party is using for EP polling numbers and some insight into the issue of “self-reported” Likelihood To Vote giving unrealistically high turnout estimate.

    I’ve previously commented on how folks can SUBJECTIVELY adjust polls if they think one/more party will get a higher Actual v VI turnout. Hopefully we’ll get some more objective opinion.

  39. CIM
    “Quite a spread between the Opinium, Comres and Yougov polls for the EU elections”

    As a dyed in the wool ABT/ABCoalition remainer with a personal red line of continued freedom of movement of people, I seem to find myself boxed firmly in between Greens and the turncoat Blairites and Cameroons who have so far been unable to decide on a name, submit an acceptable logo to the Electoral Commission for the Euros and couldn’t get their act together to even stand in Peterborough.

    The Greens stand no chance where I live, so once again my vote, if I even bother to cast it on this occasion, will be wasted.

    If even someone as engaged with politics as myself is just scratching my head in a mixture of bafflement and abject despair over this pickle, and cannot countenance supporting Labour until they stop playing silly parties over Brexit, (even though the rest of their policies generally reflect beliefs I’ve been waiting forty years to return to fashion), it’s hardly surprising that the polls are all over the place, and Farage is considered by a third of the electorate to be the voice of reason. It’s just complete madness..

    I’ve tried to convince myself that Labour are playing a clever game, I can’t see at the moment what on earth they are doing, other than crossing their fingers that the electorate don’t hammer them as hard as they’re going to hammer the Tories next week, which doesn’t seem much of an ambition.

  40. @ ANDREW111 – I’d much prefer it if polling companies could split the English regions out by EP constituency and use MRP to deal with the small samples but having taken a look in my s/s then it’s actually not too far off it you do the crude assumption:

    SW.Eng and SE.Eng both = Rest of South

    E.Eng, E.Mid, W.Mid = Midlands (and Wales [1])

    Y&H, NE.Eng, NW.Eng = North

    It’s certainly within MoE in most cases and it does mean we have more data to use.

    Obviously London and Scotland usually get their own x-break but with n=200ish then you’ll see higher MoEs (averaging across polls helps there but opens up other cans of worms along the way)

    LDEM are “winning” the Remain battle but your still losing many potential seats due to the split vote.

    1.5 weeks to go and yet to see if LAB or CON make a significant change from “can kicking” mode. LAB seem to be doing a great job of trying to breathe new life into “constructive ambiguity” but are folks getting a bit sick of that when it comes to Brexit?

    [1] PC have a 50/50ish chance of the 4th seat. Almost certain LAB and BXP get one each in the first two and one of them gets the 3rd. The one with the lowest % then fighting for the 4th on D’Hondt 1/2 share. It’s possible LDEM might be in contention for the 4th seat but iMHO more likely to mess it up for LAB or PC.

  41. meanwhile, back again at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party, Arlene Foster (representing the good people of Northern Ireland, who voted 56/44 in favour of remaining in the EU, lest we forget) says “democracy is at risk here if we do not respect the wishes of the people in the referendum”.

    So, is this a bigger, smaller or equivalent f1b than the one which represents voters at the locals rejecting leave candidates in favour of remainers delivering a resounding message that they want Brexit to be got on with?

  42. @JimJam

    “Generally the Economics and Social justice drivers will align as addressing social justice more often than not requires economic levers.”

    ——

    Yes, it is often the case. Of course, it can lead to some contention since there’s a debate over which things are, in practice, economically fairer.

    And to some extent we are at the mercy of politicians and the media as to which economic levers get an airing. TTIP has had a bit of an airing, but not enough for many to feel that comfortable talking about it. Something like municipal socialism is even less often discussed by politicians and the media.

  43. Alec
    “I’m interested in how you view the fact the the EU has singularly failed to capitulate on any of the UK’s Brexit demands within the negotiations.”

    Because our negotiators were inept and probably Remain sympathisers. As far as I can see they didn’t actually make any demands just weak requests. But I’m sure you have much greater inside knowledge of the process than I do.
    ————————
    Crossbat11
    “McDonnell is becoming an evermore interesting figure within Labour and the broader centre-left of politics.”

    If nationalising land is a centre-left policy what would you call hard left? Gulags for anyone who can read?
    ——————————–
    TED
    “I can’t see at the moment what on earth they [Labour] are doing, other than crossing their fingers that the electorate don’t hammer them as hard as they’re going to hammer the Tories next week, which doesn’t seem much of an ambition.”

    You’re not alone in that. Labour seem to be trying to sit on the fence but on an issue as divisive as this, they end up alienating both sides. I don’t think they’ll do as badly as the Tories simply because they weren’t responsible for the negotiations with the EU, but a lot of people are seriously disillusioned with both of them. We’ve had posters here saying that they were going to change voting habits of a lifetime.

  44. Another YG poll (or add-on), the article is only available behind Times paywall. Possibly be on their website later.

    Which parties are here to stay (adjusted for No Opinion)

    CON 90%
    LAB 90%
    Green 76%
    LDEM 64%

    UKIP 18%
    BXP17%
    ChUK 15%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1127861909842219008

    I’m pretty sure I can think of several readers who are going to love that poll. Clearly the bottom three have to find some reason to exist IF/WHEN a Clean Brexit happens.

    If it’s BrINO then that should be easy as whether you’re Arch-Remain or Arch-Leave May’s deal is worse than Remain or a Clean Brexit. FWIW PV lot had a poll showing only party to gain from an even worse deal (ie add a CU) would be BXP.

    If we do end up Remaining then that might wipe ChUK out but clearly BXP and UKIP will still have a raison d’être. Either fulfil the 1st ref and retrigger A50 (should MPs revoke rather than face “No WA”) or a best of 3 refs, if Remain pull one back and it’s 1-1 (best of 5, 7, whatever)

    Next scheduled GE is 2022 and I can’t see May’s deal passing anyway but even if it did then I can’t see the backstop being “solved” by then.

    Hence the next GE will almost certainly have “all of the above” parties. Which are still there in 10years time though?? Well that will depend on “Events” of course ;)

    1980s music fans should listen to the lyrics in:
    “”Karma Chameleon” by Culture Club”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcA9LIIXWw

  45. Probably posted already but not showing yet.

    Election Maps UK
    ?

    @ElectionMapsUK
    1h
    1 hour ago

    More
    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 35% (-14)
    CON: 23% (-10)
    LDM: 21% (+10)
    BXP: 10% (+10)
    GRN: 7% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 7-10 May.
    EU Changes w/ 2014.
    WM Changes w/ Dec 2018.
    6 replies .
    41 retweets
    95 likes

    Reply
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    Election Maps UK
    ?

    @ElectionMapsUK
    1h
    1 hour ago

    More
    EU Parliament Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 24% (-12)
    BXP: 20% (+20)
    LDM: 17% (+10)
    GRN: 14% (+5)
    CON: 10% (-12)

    Implied Seats:

    LAB: 2 (-2)
    BXP: 2 (+2)
    LDM: 2 (+2)
    GRN: 1 (=)
    CON: 1 (-1)
    UKIP: 0 (-1)

  46. Just heard Stephen Kinnock on R4. Flatly contradict Tom Watson
    1) “Labour are a Remain and Reform Party” (followed by copious quantitities of lovely fudge
    2) “Labour will respect the referendum and Leave with a deal.” (follwed by “colleagues who want another referendum can vote for it in Parliament but it would be a really bad idea (paraphrased)”

    Having different opinions is one thing but speaking them as Labour Policy is surely an orchestrated campaign of obfuscation

  47. Andrew,

    Confusion is not good and Watson may have stretched the policy, maybe even gone beyond the limit, but he is at least an Elected DP. Kinnock has no Status beyond being a back bench MP, his comments are therefore opinions not policy pronouncements.
    Bit like JRM or Grieve having a different view to a cabinet member or, until he resigned the Whip, Steven Lloyd from Vince Cable and I think Norman Lamb has defied the whip to vote for soft Brexit in the HOC.
    Naughty partisan aside that the LDs have lost a higher %age of their MPs (8.25%) over Brexit than any other party.

  48. @ TRIGGUY – Agree a shocking write-up in the Times.

    The flip side is the “bright sparks” at CCHQ seem to be thinking they are going to lose seats to LDEM and BXP will be “gone” after the EPs?!?

    I’ll repost the link MATT126 posted on last thread as it seems they look at the direct seat changes in the “big 3” and totally miss the underlying reason. I’ve added change since 2017 to the “prediction” from that source and highlighted the bit they seem to be overly focussing on:

    https://www.flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=1935
    New Political map based on ComRes [1]

    Lab 330 (+68)
    Con 112 (-206)
    Lib Dem 79 (+67)

    below that they seem to think these other parties don’t exist or are “niche” or gone within next decade

    SNP53 (+18)
    BRX 51 (+51)
    PC 4 (uc)
    Green 2 (+1) not sure where the +1 comes from??

    Can’t be bothered to go through the 2stages of “Culmination Point” and “Tipping Point” that could mean CON are facing existential threat if they don’t act quickly and start reading the x-breaks in the polls to see where great chunks of their core is going.

    My source in CCHQ is a grunt way down the food chain but he knows a few of them see what is happening (e.g. Cleverly) but the top brass are “bunnies in the headlights” and/or looking in totally the wrong direction (e.g. Lewis)

    Their EP campaign literature clearly shows they are barking. Barking mad and barking totally up the wrong tree. If they come to Barking (or a bit further into Essex) the good locals will explain it to them – AGAIN!!

    [1] Note I don’t think their numbers are correct as they overstate LDEM (where as Electoral Calculus seem to understate LDEM).

  49. @ TW

    One issue for the regions on MRP or simply a cross break with reasonable sample size could be the wildcard candidates.

    I’m not sure whether Yorkshire Party or similar independents will have any clout but in the North West region we have an extremely high profile Tommy Robinson who seems to be visiting virtually every town (when he’s not on a court day), getting headlines in local papers, targeting council estates and causing mayhem in his wake. People are very aware of him and I guess that type of far right candidate is capable of 5% of the vote as well as perhaps encouraging others to turn out to vote by opposing him. North West may also be unusual by the ballot running to two pages with every form of far/farish right and other independents as well- took me about 5 minutes to find his name when I had to prove to my wife he was standing!

    I was looking at crossbreaks and the big Yougov poll was done some time ago where a North West crossbreak would have had relevance but too early for a Robinson factor to show up and the later polls with combined North simply have very few “others”.

    I have no idea what Robinson would get- somewhere between 1% and 5% I would guess- big difference but on 5% he might well be eating into the BXP vote.

  50. @ 10.57 am

    “”Over 30% have already voted””

    How can that be?

    In our area the postal vote forms haven`t yet arrived, never mind being posted back.

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