Today’s Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes.

Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from late April. Full tables are here.

ComRes for BrexitExpress have voting intentions of CON 19%(-4), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 14%(+7), BREX 20%(+6), GRN 5%(+2), ChUK 7%(-2), UKIP 3%(-2). Fieldwork appears to be all on Thursday, and changes are since mid-April.

Both polls have Labour and the Conservatives rapidly shedding support, with support growing for the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party. I suspect we are seeing a combination of factors at work here, most obviously there is the continuing collapse in Conservative support over Brexit, a trend we’ve been seeing since the end of March, with support moving to parties with a clearer pro-Brexit policy. Originally that favoured UKIP too, now it is almost wholly going to the Brexit party.

Secondly there is the impact of the local elections and the Liberal Democrat successes there. For several years the Lib Dems seemed moribund and struggled to be noticed. The coverage of their gains at the local elections seems to have given them a solid boost in support, more so than the other anti-Brexit parties – for now at least, they seem to be very much alive & well again.

Third is the impact of the European elections. People are obviously more likely to vote for smaller parties in the European elections and in current circumstances obviously appear more willing to lend their vote to a different party in protest over Brexit. To some degree this will be influencing other voting intention figures as well, so I would treat Westminster voting intention figures with some scepticism in the run up to the European elections (and probably in the immediate aftermath as well, when those parties who do well will likely recieve a further boost in support).

In short, these are startling results – but we have seen startling results before (look at the polls at the height of SDP support, or just after the expenses scandal broke, or during Cleggmania). These are indeed very unusual results – the combined level of Con-Lab support in these polls are some of the very lowest we’ve seen, the Conservative share in the ComRes poll almost their lowest ever (I can find only a single Gallup poll with a lower figure, from back in 1995). What we cannot tell at the moment is whether this portends a serious readjustment of the parties, or whether things will return to more familar patterns once the European elections have passed, the Conservatives have a new leader and (assuming it ever happens) Brexit is in some way settled.

Both polls also had voting intention figures for the European Parliament elections

Opinium Euro VI – CON 11%, LAB 21%, LDEM 12%, BREX 34%, GRN 8%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 4%
ComRes Euro VI – CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, BREX 27%, GRN 8%, ChUK 6%, UKIP 3%

Both have the Brexit party ahead, though they are doing considerably better with Opinium than with ComRes. In both cases the Liberal Democrats have recieved a post-local election boost, putting them above the Conservatives in European voting intentions.


760 Responses to “New Opinium and ComRes polls”

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  1. Andrew111,

    “I hope everyone takes ADW’s 3 stooges and their convenient opinions with a big pinch of salt!”

    I thought he was you using a pseudonym!

    Peter.

  2. Slow News day on here…or maybe there’s football on!

    Peter.

  3. ANDREW111
    “An incompetent fiction writer might not have noticed though.”

    Yes I thought that was illuminating. Of course the three characters were always too preposterously cliched to be real, but I tended to the “official propaganda” view until today.

    Not sure any official source would ever be that badly informed though.

  4. IF ( big IF because it’s a crossbreaks) the Opinium numbers for Scotland for the Euros are accurate then it’s SNP 3 ( 1,2 & 6) and the other 3 BXT (3), Con (4), Lab (5) in that order.

    Peter.

  5. Peter Cairns

    I thought Willie Rennie was hopeful his party would secure one , north of the border?

  6. Profhoward,

    “I thought Willie Rennie was hopeful his party would secure one , north of the border?”

    Your talking about a man brought up in dodgy graph land.

    Opinium has them on 8% in Scotland and actually checking my figures they are SNP 40%, BXT 17%, Con 14%, Lab 11%, LibDem 8%, Green 5%, UKIP 4%!

    I think I took the SNP as first then halved then halved again when it should have been divide by 1 + seats won ie 1,2 & 3.

    So the third SNP score should have been 13 not 10! The SNP still get three but switch fifth for sixth with Labour getting the last seat.

    Still all just rough crossbreaks though!

    Peter.

  7. Peter

    I understand that a large fraction (over 50%) of the Scottish folks who don’t vote for independence parties in Scotland are pro-remain. So the Lib Dems seem an obvious choice for those people.

  8. Disappointing that Man City won the title; I was rather hoping Liverpool would prevail, particularly since it’s so long since they last did so. I find something rather dispiriting about Man City’s domination, even though they are a fine side.

    ADW – I see a horse called Gossip Column was withdrawn from the 3.15 race at Chester (The Boodles Diamond Handicap) last Friday. Was it being ridden by that Labour MP you know by any chance and, if so, what was he still doing at the meeting without a ride. I’m also presuming that your Tory MP friend was astride the horse Who Dares Wins which came in a close second in the big race at 3.35 (SportPesa Chester Cup Handicap). Going good to soft too, I see. No sign of your second Tory MP friend though. Was he nobbled?

    :-)

  9. The three characters playing MPs are so confused because they are waiting for Godot.

  10. @ CMJ (maybe JAMES B?) – I am finding a few “issues” with Electoral Calculus’s addition of the new parties.

    A good place to start is always to try to recreate the last GE and that shows a few issues.

    Beyond that though I’ll have to wait until I can strip out the data and generate an exception report as looking at isolated “weird” seats doesn’t seem to highlight any clear pattern.

    It does appear to:

    a/ understate LDEM gains (but I can’t see why it does this)
    b/ be hyper sensitive to BXP “trigger point” in the 23-26% zone (which seems OK – a huge number of seats turn marginal around that zone, especially with LAB dented as well)

    For sure b/ might meet some Tactical Vote (TV) type issues (but we have to make an assumption the start point data is “clean” of any previous TV anyway)

    I’m keen to discuss models with folks who know what they are talking about so if interested then please post any opinion on where you see EC being “wrong” (not the correct word but you’ll know what I mean).

    If anyone else wants to play around with EC’s model and are OK with excel then just throw in some numbers to their prediction function and then ask it to sort by majority. Copy the resulting data into excel and then rework it as you see fit (eg do a quick “max” function or “sort” and you’ll see a load of seats are won with 30-35% of the vote and the 2nd place is 1-2% behind)

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    Any model is only good as its assumptions of course but GE’s are about winning seats and hence seat prediction models are worth discussing.

    Done for today. Pleasant evening to all.

    PS It would be great if EC could add a “map” for their model showing the seats.

  11. @ADW
    HULAGU – so of all the things I’ve told you that the three I know think, that have since passed, which of them were wrong?
    Not hardly any is the answer. So if I make it up, I’m doing considerably better than professionals.

    Do you remember writing this
    @ADW
    Three MPs I know (two tories and one labour), all found this evening confusing.
    All three also believe that the ERG will support May’s deal in MV3 as the least worst alternative and it will pass.
    The two tories believe the trade-off to get the ERG on board will be May stepping down as leader at summer break.
    March 13th, 2019 at 10:06 pm

    I suggest if they are real they are not the most reliable of sources

  12. PETER W

    “Kind of my point. Lots of so called “stop Brexit” parties. None has yet openly and unambiguously adopted as preferred policy the one process that will do so.”

    In March, Holyrood – the Scottish parliament – voted to revoke Art 50

    Tweet from Nicola Sturgeon on 1 April.

    The most important motion [in Westminster] laid today is this one from @joannaccherry – it makes revoking Article 50, rather than a no deal Brexit, the default option if Parliament can’t agree a way forward. I hope all parties will support. #RevokeArt50

  13. Quickly expanding on point a/ in my 5:46pm

    Part of the issue for EC’s model is the possible LDEM tactical vote from 2017.

    In many seats LDEM dropped way down in votes for GE’17 – possibly due to ABC vote and backing LAB (I think so but aware it can’t be proved) – ie Tactical Voting (TV)

    Anyway, that messes things up as a start point.

    If you go back to 2015 (or better yet 2010 I suspect although times have changed since then for sure) then you don’t have the GE’17 TV issue and IMHO would have a better “start” point (I’m using 2015 as IMHO that is “cleaner” data than 2017)

    Of course TV might be even greater next time, might reverse, who knows.

    Point is if it existed in GE’17 then LDEM’s “surge” will mean EC’s model gives LDEM stonking majorities in seats they already hold but fails to capture seats they probably could take in next GE (SW England best place to see that although it was quite “Leavey” so even then I’m not sure).

    However, the SW England issue doesn’t appear to work elsewhere in the country (it works a bit in SE England but all over the place in Midlands and North).

    Anyway, thought I’d expand on that point as I’m aware of the high number of Remain folks on UKPR (possibly LAB’17 tactical voters who would consider LDEM, ChUK or Green next time)

  14. @ PETER (SNP) – Long reply appears to have gone into the sin bin, some new naughty word? Anyway..

    Try looking at France. R3M didn’t exist 15mths before the 2017 election but they won 61% of the seats on 32% of the 1st round vote.

  15. @ANDREW111

    I dont believe that any MP of any Party would not know that nominations for the Peterborough by-election closed several days ago without any “united Remain” candidate

    That seems a bit of a stretch. Getting colleagues to absorb information when it’s emailed to them with a subject line of direct self-interest is enough of a challenge in many workplaces! And a very cursory Google suggests the nominations list was only announced on Friday, the day ADW said in advance he was meeting this guy.

  16. “And a very cursory Google suggests the nominations list was only announced on Friday, the day ADW said in advance he was meeting this guy.”

    No, the list of candidates was announced on Thursday – see this from 9 May.

    https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-by-election-final-list-of-15-candidates-revealed-1-8922013
    May 1

  17. @DANNY

    Funnily enough, I think the conservative plan was to revoke, after the EU refused to extend the deadline. The EU refused to play that game.

    The EU refused to play that game because…they secretly want us to leave? This is getting a tad confusing…

  18. Good evening all from what has been a very warm and sunny Winchester.

    I have to mention the football….Hard luck to Liverpool but we are still into the Champions league final and I can smell a big cup. YNWA.

    Ok onto polling….What about Farage and his Brexit party? Woooooff..

    The Tories and Labour are going to take a pasting in the Euro elections and anyone who thought the Euro elections were going to set scene for a second referendum must be on cloud nine.

    The Brexit party are going to storm the Euro elections in England and possibly Wales. When we have a parliament that can’t deliver a simple mandate and is increasingly liberal in nature, ie wanting trannies to share toilets with normal kids, then I’m not at all surprised people are turning away from the two main parties.

    I will lend my vote to the Brexit party for the European elections but remain undecided who I will vote for at a Westminster election.

    One I thing I really would urge Brexit supporters to do and that is to actually go out and vote even though we never wanted they damn euro elections because if we don’t then it will give the remain lot a better chance to wail about a second eu referendum.

  19. @JAMES E

    Yes, thanks for the correction – I was seeing “2 days ago” on the stories when I looked earlier, presumably because they were posted after an EOB deadline on Thursday and were thus still less than 72 hours old when I searched. A slightly too cursory search in this case then! :-)

    Either way though, we’re still only talking about an MP’s info being a day or so out of date, which I don’t find remotely implausible given the kinds of ignorant and ill-informed statements we regularly complain about MPs making!

  20. Britain elects have kindly completed compiling all the data for the local elections

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1127632230904418304

    Have fun…

  21. In discussing the Brexit party we should always cast our minds back to 1983, where the SDP scored 25% of the vote but only got 23 seats to show for it.

    Granted, Tory/Labour voter loyalty is far lower than it was back then, but I struggle to see BXP doing significantly better than the above even with a massive surge, and Farage becoming PM doesn’t seem plausible at all, at least not at the head of a majority.

    The more interesting prospect is the potential collapse of the Tories, who have surely never been in a position as dangerous as this one. Even under Major they hardly ever polled as badly as this. Perhaps the worst sign is the fact that the party seems to have largely gone AWOL at this critical period… where are the election messages? where are the campaigners?

  22. One of the puzzling thing in the EP election campaign (here in South Liverpool only the LDs made a half-hearted attempt so far) is the complete lack of attack on Farage. It would be an easy job, unless the mainstream English parties think that the majority of the English (and probably Welsh) population would vote for the exposed extreme right wing politician.

    Maybe it is just a learning from Labour in 2017 (they refused to engage with the Tories) – but it could be the wrong learning.

  23. Laszlo: One of the puzzling thing in the EP election campaign (here in South Liverpool only the LDs made a half-hearted attempt so far) is the complete lack of attack on Farage.

    Farage is like marmite. Everyone has made up their mind about him one way or the other and no one is likely to change their mind. So no point in attacking him, you just make more of a hero of him to those who revere him.

  24. Bit of stuff from one of the Blue team. Forget any halfwit notion of a vote on May’s deal succeeding anymore The Tory parliamentary party now just want shot of her as quickly as possible- even her loyalists. The next time her deal comes to the House in the next couple of weeks, even Tories who have supported it for three votes and supported her in the vote of no confidence are going to vote it down. Not because they no longer support it, but because the deal is no longer relevant – within the tories it has become a vote about her and her alone, the deal is irrelevant. When she goes, the deal goes with her. Her replacement will not run with it.

    HULAGU – check the names at the next vote and how they voted previously.

    NEILJ – Which proves my point of not hardly any.

  25. @Laszlo @TCO

    One of the puzzling thing in the EP election campaign (here in South Liverpool only the LDs made a half-hearted attempt so far) is the complete lack of attack on Farage. It would be an easy job, unless the mainstream English parties think that the majority of the English (and probably Welsh) population would vote for the exposed extreme right wing politician.

    Maybe it is just a learning from Labour in 2017 (they refused to engage with the Tories) – but it could be the wrong learning.

    In our recent local elections we had had two ‘Independent’ candidates, who took a clear line that anti-establishment, with plenty of classic right wing dog whistles in their campaigns. These campaigns were targeted at traditionally non-voters, and used plenty of the rhetoric that Trump and the Leave campaign used.

    Any attack on them by the established parties simply threw fuel on the fire, and motivated their supporters as proof of the establishment stitch up.

    Maybe this is going on here.

  26. As for the three MPs I know, can any of you show three MPs who have consistently got things right over Brexit in Parliament from party leaders downwards?

    NEIL J, look how the majority of MPs have been wrong-footed repeatedly since march. They aren’t playing games with the press, they literally are being caught on the hop on a daily basis. They sometimes vote the way they believe, sometimes vote against the way the believe, sometimes follow the whip, sometimes don’t. Sometimes vote a way you think they wouldn’t because they are trying to manipulate a situation. The ‘political establishment’ is disintegrating before our (and their) eyes and it isn’t a temporary blip. When I say they really do not know what is going on, believe me they don’t. They don’t even have that much of an idea what is going on in the talks between May and Corbyn – they literally rely on newspaper updates.

    You might not like that, but it’s how dystopian Parliament has become because of Brexit. Lobby fodder backbenchers (which is most MPs) are no longer relevant.

  27. It seems to me the Brexit Party campaign is based on focusing on the emotive and subjective themes of an anti-democratic establishment and identity.

    In the 2016 Referendum the Remain camp never got to grip[s with this, and I think the ‘establishment’ is trusted even less now.

    Dark and dangerous times in my view.

  28. TW,

    “Try looking at France. R3M didn’t exist 15mths before the 2017 election but they won 61% of the seats on 32% of the 1st round vote.”

    Already covered, Macron was a centrist who could attract from both sides and who had already won the Presidency, he was also an establishment figure, an ex economics minister no less.

    Farage is much more like Le Penn, clearly on one side of politics and anathema to much of the other.

    He is also trying the Trump poly of being the anti establishment change candidate. Problem is Trump did it from within uniting the right of centre vote by comendering the Republican Party not by challenging it and splitting the right of centre vote!

    A Fact on it’s Own is a Lonely Thing!

    Quoting the French result without context doesn’t prove your argument, it shows how weak it is!

    Peter.

  29. CATMANJEFF

    I’ve been saying it until the coos come home on this site. The establishment and huge sections of the liberal society in this country tend to brush peoples fears aside and hope they will go away and then what happens is that it leaves a vacuum in politics for other people to fill.

    It’s happening all across the EU and people are lurching to the right. That;s what happens when people are fed up with the wishy washy parasites who are paid a fortune to sit behind a desk and come up with political correct guff and pretend it’s the norm.

    Thankfully in England we have a safety net such as the Brexit party and to an extent UKIP so disenfranchised people don’t fall into the grubby hands of the BNP, EDFL and others.

    Across the EU voters are lurching to the far right because the liberal establishment is getting increasingly ugly in nature. The Yanks had enough of it and voted in Trump.

    They only have themselves to blame.

  30. @catmanjeff

    ‘In the 2016 Referendum the Remain camp never got to grip[s with this, and I think the ‘establishment’ is trusted even less now’

    To be fair to the millions of voters who are flocking to Farage, the ‘establishment’ only has itself to blame.

    From May’s obvious ineptness and deviance of long standing conventions and refusal to the decent thing, to Labour’s ambiguity and positioning its no wonder Farage’s simplistic populist message is resonating with many.

  31. ADW

    Personally I enjoy your posts , and don’t care whether your three MPs are fictitious or not. I disagree with you about almost everything but find your writing colourful and amusing.

    Keep it going!

  32. @AC @Redrich

    I know the mainstream of politics has got itself into a hole.

    I’m more worried about the effect and how we stop it getting worse. What’s done is done.

  33. @CATMANJEFF, @LASZLO, @TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER

    I agree with CMJ and TO – as things stand there’s not a lot that CON/LAB can say against Farage’s EP message that he can’t simply turn around and use to galvanise his supporters.

    – If they say he’s being too simplistic, he’ll just shout that leave means leave and what could be simpler?
    – If they try to argue policy specifics, he’ll just shout that they’ve all had three years to fuss about details and got nowhere – instead of talking forever we need to get on and actually do it
    – If they say he’s being irresponsible he’ll just shout that the politicians are trying to disregard the clear instruction from the electorate because they think they know better
    – If they say he’s a divisive, destructive dog-whistler, he’ll just shout that they’re saying everyone who voted for Brexit is a thick rac1st

    So maybe their best tactic is to just leave him alone, and wait for him to say or do something that will make the more moderate switchers think twice about giving him their vote.

  34. Farage should just extract the juicy bits from the EU documentary. It rather puts the lie to May’s claim to have negotiated a good deal; and that May’s deal was somehow inevitable as the EU have decently offered us the best terms possible.

    It won’t impress strong Remainers, for whom the EU’s negotiating and moral supremacy over the UK are fixed points of reference.

    But he is not in the market for their votes.

  35. catmanjeff: “One of the puzzling thing in the EP election campaign (here in South Liverpool only the LDs made a half-hearted attempt so far) is the complete lack of attack on Farage. It would be an easy job, unless the mainstream English parties think that the majority of the English (and probably Welsh) population would vote for the exposed extreme right wing politician.”

    Well the Guardian unleashed such an attack: Farage is anti-Semitic because he thinks Soros is a big businessman who tries to use his wealth to influence politics.

    Remain will need to do better than that.

  36. the Trevors told us earlier that the Remain parties were fighting hard against each other in Peterborough, but could the voting choices for the UK MP election influence the EU election, or vice versa.

    I think Peterborough is in the East of England EU constituency [I`ll soon be shot down if wrong]. This is important cf being in the East Midlands, since there are 7 seats, cf 5 in East Midlands. So there is a chance for either a LibDem or Green MEP to be elected, or just possibly both – oh for a constituency poll to guide voters.

    Now the Peterborough area has several hundred “greenish” permanent jobs, with the headquarters of Natural England and also the JNCC. And just down the road in Sandy there`s the RSPB headquarters with another few hundred employees.

    Natural England were briefly in the news two weeks ago when their new head revoked the general licence allowing individuals to shoot pest birds, this after pressure from ultra Greens. Then a few days later Michael Gove stepped in(from Defra) and ordered re-instatement, under pressure from farmers and game-shooting estates. Perhaps there`s been more debate in the area.

    The issue has gone out of the national news, but I wonder if it is a real difference in the Peterborough election fights between the LibDems, usually moderate in conservation and Green issues, and the Green Party, who have an anarchist element in their ranks. This latter was on display in the Climate-change protests and annoyed many London commuters.

    I hope in the 7-seat constituency both LibDems and Greens get elected, but fear it will be one or other. And any polling ranking these two parties could help our voting decisions elsewhere – for me in Scotland with 6 seats there`s a fair chance of one or other getting 6th place – but which to vote for???.

    =

  37. Whilst on the topic of populist appeal, I find it strange that an alleged Marxist-Leninist such as Corbyn should have forgotten ‘Peace, Land and Bread’. Although many have derided the LD’s for their slogan they are on the right track, as the only way to defeat/counter Farage is to beat him at his own game.

    I don’t think the two major parties can now afford to cross their fingers and hope he eventually goes away/implodes. The Tories seem to be waking up to the realisation that there is no law that states that they should remain as one of the two main parties. The current Labour coalition of support is relatively fragile and less loyal than in the past – and their voters do have other places they can go.

    The real risk for the big two in these Euros is that large sections of their ‘core’ support go elsewhere – which will weaken the bonds of loyalty with these voters more willing to vote for other parties in future elections.

  38. Has anyone posted the ComRes tables yet? If no, here they are:

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Brexit-Express-Tables-120519.pdf

    Haven’t looked much yet, but they do have the EP VI split by constituency. It’s around page 62. Probably some other goodies too.

  39. “Probably some other goodies too.”

    Some might be interested in page 78 on acceptable/non-acceptable Brexit outcomes. It’s a close run thing, certainly within MoE, but the answer is that “Revoke” is the most acceptable. Just favoured, but very polarising of course.

  40. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/12/keir-starmer-brexit-deal-unlikely-pass-without-confirmatory-referendum-interview?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
    Keir Starmer says brexit deal only likely to pass with confirmatory vote so why the ambiguity from Labour. Maybe they want the Tories to be perceived involved in referendum and still playing waiting game.

  41. I’ve made a quick estimate of MEPs based on the ComRes cross-breaks. Tiny numbers of course, huge margin of error. It should also be noted that the ComRes numbers are not hugely different to previous polls, it’s the Opinium version that shows a more dramatic shift to BXP, but they haven’t nicely split their numbers by EP constituency. So these MEP estimates really aren’t much different to what we’ve seen before:

    BXP: 25
    LAB: 22
    CON: 8
    LD: 8
    GRN: 3
    CHUK: 2
    SNP: 2

    The only real shift is from CON to LibDem. The Tiggers still manage to scrape a couple of MEPs, one in the South East (with lots of MEPs) and one in East – surely some mistake! (Well, not mistake, terrible stats.)

  42. SAM
    Sure. That was a key vote. Which shows that it has almost 200 support in the Commons. In addition to 7000000+ on the petition.

    But is it, without qualification, SNP policy in this election? No. Nor anyone else’s.

  43. @Redrich

    “The real risk for the big two in these Euros is that large sections of their ‘core’ support go elsewhere – which will weaken the bonds of loyalty with these voters more willing to vote for other parties in future elections”

    Indeed. My understanding is that Labour took the Scottish seats for granted, and when they came under pressure from the SNP, there was nothing there to resist. I suspect the Tory party will similarly just roll over if they come under squeeze from Brexit Party in the shires.

    Interesting times, but the Tories brought this upon themselves.

  44. Article in the Guardian with details of a warning from a former top Civil Servant, that even if May did get her withdrawal deal through, the next stage of Brexit will be far more difficult.

    Do most people realise that the negotiations after the withdrawal stage, could take many years ?

    Brexit is a disaster for the Tories and if they think that Labour is going to come to the rescue, without requiring either a confirmatory referendum or General Election, then i think they are mistaken. Labour will either want the public to decide on Mays Brexit or have the opportunity after winning an election to negotiate their own version of Brexit.

  45. TrigGuy,

    For your totalling, did the East of England give both a LibDem and a Green in the 7 seats available?

    The total polled in EoE was only 217, so it`s a pretty poor test, but I see 19 LibDem voters so giving 10% of the weighted sample. In the constituency breakdown, Greens don`t feature.

  46. ADW
    “As for the three MPs I know, can any of you show three MPs who have consistently got things right over Brexit in Parliament from party leaders downwards?”

    Well, I reckon my Garden wall beats your fictional Labour mate. After all, it doesn’t think there’s a joint Green/ LibDem/ ChUK candidate in Peterboroiugh.

    I’m sure people of a more Con persuasion could find your fantasy Conservatives equally iffy.

    I for my sins tend to follow football sites as well as political ones. They are full of in the know pretences. From barely pubescent schoolboys who need to get a life.

    Get a life.

  47. Allan Christie
    “Thankfully in England we have a safety net such as the Brexit party and to an extent UKIP so disenfranchised people don’t fall into the grubby hands of the BNP, EDFL and others.”

    Bang on. That role used to be filled by the Tories but with honourable exceptions they have drifted leftwards ever since Maggie, thus leaving a massive hole on the centre-right – i.e. socially conservative but not in favour of state control.

  48. @ALLAN CHRISTIE – “Thankfully in England we have a safety net such as the Brexit party and to an extent UKIP so disenfranchised people don’t fall into the grubby hands of the BNP, EDFL and others.”

    I think you might have missed or misunderstood what UKIP has become now.

  49. @PETERW

    A couple of months ago we were all trying to come to terms with an MP getting promoted to the Cabinet without having realised that voting in Northern Ireland has a sectarian element to it.

    Why are you so confident now that an MP who’s jollying in the homeland rather than at Westminster being a day or so behind on what other parties are trying to do in a by-election is fantastical?

  50. R Huckle
    “Do most people realise that the negotiations after the withdrawal stage, could take many years ?”

    So what? In the meantime we’ll have agreed deals with USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and many others. The EU will be the ones with the begging bowl.

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