There are three polls this weekend asking about voting intentions in the European Parliament election:

A YouGov poll conducted for Hope Not Hate has topline European election voting intentions of CON 13%(-4), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), BREX 28%(+5), UKIP 5%(-1), GRN 10%(nc), ChUK 10%(+2). Fieldwork was between Tuesday and Friday, and changes are from YouGov’s previous European election poll the week before. It suggests the Brexit party continue to grow in support, largely at the expense of the Tories. Tables are here.

Opinium have topline European voting intentions of CON 14%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 7%(-3), BREX 28%(+16), UKIP 3%(-10), GRN 6%(nc), ChUK 7%(+3). Fieldwork was Sunday to Tuesday, and changes are since the start of the month (notably, Opinium’s previous European poll was before the launch of the Brexit party, so repeats the massive transfer of support from UKIP to Brexit that we saw in YouGov’s previous poll conducted just after the Brexit party’s launch). Full tabs are here.

Finally Survation have topline figures of CON 16%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, BREX 27%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%, ChUK 4%. Fieldwork was between the 17th and 25th April. Full tables are here.

All three polls have the Conservatives doing extremely badly, down in the teens. All three have the Brexit party performing strongly in the high twenties, seemingly taking over the vast majority of UKIP’s previous support (it would be unlikely that UKIP would retain any seats on the levels of support suggested here). There is more of a contrast in Labour support – YouGov have them in the low twenties, six points behind the Brexit party. Survation & Opinium have them doing better, neck-and-neck with the Brexit party for first place. Finally, Survation have Change UK on just 4%, Opinium have them on 7%, YouGov on 10%. Part of that difference will likely be down to timing – YouGov’s poll was the only one of the three polls conducted wholly after Change UK’s launch, which may well have given them at least a temporary boost.

1,992 Responses to “European election polling”

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  1. Always knew I had Bill Cash wrong. Just the deepest cover agent of the remain conspiracy. His entire career about setting up a vote to give plausible deniability to some other Tories pretending to leave the EU. It’s all so clear now.

  2. The Trevors,
    “Perhaps follow DANNY’s advice and vote for CON – he keeps telling us CON are a Remain ”

    Please be careful what views you ascribe to others. My advice is to pick the party you feel best suits your version of remain. I dont think it matters very much what the outcome is in seat terms. What will matter is the vote share. So while I think the tiggers will do badly, I dont see voting for them as such a waste. This is much more a multiple choice referendum than an election where the MEPs really matter. yes, they would matter in representing the Uk to europe and a voice for brits, but it is far more important to choose based upon staying in at all.

    Labour is not a leave party. Just as the conservatives have been playing games, so have labour. Labour will switch wherever it is expedient in the end. They know just as certainly as the conservatives that brexit cannot be delivered as promised. In their case, their manifesto said they would not accept a brexit which harms the UK. May tried to sell ‘brexit at any price’ to the Uk in the election the conservatives called in 2017, but it failed.

    At the moment I suspect labour are applying brinkmanship to try to force the conservatives to either revoke or call a referendum, because it will harm conservatives more if they do it than if labour declares first.

  3. @ PETERW – From my 4:51pm. Note I’m not suggesting you are LDEM VI. I’m aware you are LAB VI.

    Please accept my apologies for implying you might be LDEM VI.

  4. TW
    As far as the Euros go I’d certainly vote LibDem if they came off the PV fence and actually advocated remain. Since neither they nor anyone else in the laughably misnamed remain camp has that level of courage of conviction I’m a probable not bothering.

  5. New Opinium Poll in process of being released.

    Shows Brexit Party storming the Euros with higher share than Labour and Tory combined, and Brexit Party moving into third place in Westminster elections 1% behind tories, with Labour falling to 28%.

  6. Not sure if these polls have been put on here yet

    European Parliament voting intention:

    BREX: 34% (+6)
    LAB: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 12% (+5)
    CON: 11% (-3)
    GRN: 8% (+2)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)
    CHUK: 3% (-4)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
    Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 28% (-5)
    CON: 22% (-5)
    BREX: 21% (+4)
    LDEM: 11% (+5)
    GRN: 6% (+2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
    Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

  7. Per Britain Elects

    42 minutes ago
    European Parliament voting intention:

    BREX: 34% (+6)
    LAB: 21% (-7)
    LDEM: 12% (+5)
    CON: 11% (-3)
    GRN: 8% (+2)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)
    CHUK: 3% (-4)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
    Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

    176 replies 580 retweets 832 likes
    Reply 176 Retweet 580 Like 832

    Britain Elects

    44 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 28% (-5)
    CON: 22% (-5)
    BREX: 21% (+4)
    LDEM: 11% (+5)
    GRN: 6% (+2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 08 May
    Chgs. w/ 23 Apr

  8. @ DANNY – Great to hear you’re voting for Special Agent Soubry’s party (SAS). Wise choice ;)

    She is an excellent field operative on a mission to ensure we Leave with “No Deal” and keep CON in power. Macron is frustrating her good work but 3rd time lucky come Halloween perhaps?

    Sadly she’s surrounded by incompetency (seems to be a virus going around). Rachel Johnson? What were they thinking ;)


    The 4 prison bars on the logo is apparently like a scratch card. Once we’ve left Soubs will reveal the secret message (in ITALICS with rest of the logo already known in Bold )



    ONCE AGAIN BECOME …. The Independent Group


    Free from the EU and its Customs Union, Single Market, ECJ…

    (final bit is written in invisible ink as the black marker ran out of ink after the 4 bars – but she had the full 007 kit so still managed to get it all on one sheet of paper)

    Folks will finally get why they called themselves Change UK yet seemingly don’t want to Change UK at all and why they call themselves The Independent Group despite apparently wanting us to stay shackled to the EU with no independence.

    Also, “Remain Alliance” was a spell check error. They meant to say

    Remain are all L!ars

    bl00dy spell check, always gets its wrung!!

    The 11 ChUK-TIGs will then all be made peers and can retire to the Lords

    Now THAT is a “cunning plan” – very few will have seen that coming, so soz for the spoiler!!

    PS Personally I’m just a th!cko Leaver and can’t keep up with all this complex stuff like voting Leave so that we’d Remain or voting CON so that we’d end up with Corbyn running the country why May sticks her head in the sand.

    Done with the lot ’em I tell you – time to

    Change Politics for Good

    and actually vote for Brexit this time (they even made it easy by calling themselves the Brexit Party – no confusion this time, does wot it sez on the tin!).

    :-) :-)

  9. Matt126,

    Do you think 703 gains all across England were achieved by Lib Dems sitting on the sofa? Lib dem seats are won by working harder than the others, so i can pretty much guarantee that the lib dems will hand deliver more than the others. However a lot of spending in the run up to the local elections (focus leaflets etc before the local election regulated period began) is being counted as Euroelection spending by the electoral commission. Hence the lib dems are not able to spend as much as they would like on things like Royal mail free delivery leaflets, a problem not faced by the Brexit Party or the Chukas

  10. Shevii

    Thanks for the info. I should have realised that.

  11. @NeilJ

    It’s the Westminster voting intention that should really worry the Tories with Brexit Party likely to take away their majority in a lot of marginal seats.

  12. Peter C
    “You mean out with the M25…..But there be Dragons!”

    You’ve met the wife then?
    Andrew 111
    Independents gained over 600 seats at the recent local elections, and I don’t suppose many of them had a lot of boots on the ground. The result for Libdems was just a protest vote, with even some Brexiteers voting for them where there was no Independent or Brexit alternative.

  13. Some interesting polls.
    – Labour losing to Lib Dems/ Greens
    -CON – losing to the brexit party, Seems only remain Tories left now. Perhaps they will be going LibDem soon too
    -LibDem seem to be seeing off the threat from CHUK

    So how the Tories see off the brexit party threat who are a one man personality cult. If the brexit party overtake the Tory party this will risk some MP’s defecting.
    They are left with 2 options. Either go for a 2nd referendum to try and close the argument either way or appoint a brexiteer and go for a General Election at some point with no HOC majority. It Seems to have gone past the point that a customers union fudge with Labour will do then any favours

  14. @CARFREW

    When you see how the media onslaught took Cameron’s party into polling in the twenties, with Miliband in the forties, and then reversed it in a couple of years

    Tad of an overstatement perhaps – from scanning the list on this site then whilst they did get some scores in the very high 20s I couldn’t see them averaging in the 20s, and were rarely averaging more than about 10-12 points behind Labour which is a rather less dramatic difference to reverse in a period of years.

    And while you attribute this change to difference in media coverage, I’d see it far more as the other way around. Cameron did a series of things that upset various sections of his support (gay marriage, the 2012 budget, vetoing the Eurozone rescue package just being off the top of my head) and so became relatively unpopular for a while. As an unpopular PM, the media profit from putting the boot in. Then as these effects fade, popularity gradually rises back to where it was before.

    while the focus on immigration took it from nowhere to be the number one issue, it does indicate how influential the media can be.

    Or as immigration becomes a bigger issue the more of it that happens, the media profits by extensively covering it. (this bit in particular is very chicken and egg, with the determination of certain politicians to make it a high profile issue muddying things further)

    (And Corbyn’s rise in the campaign period shows how much the power of the media is diminished when constrained).

    That could be a factor, but again I don’t think it’s anywhere near as conclusive as you seem to. I’d put all of these as more likely to be major factors in dramatic opinion shifts: people suddenly (and unexpectedly) having to focus on picking a government and a set of policies; Theresa May’s dreadful campaigning; the meanness of the Tory policies compared to Labour’s; and the ability of Labour to use its size and resources to roll up support from smaller LoC parties in a snap campaign.

    Circulations fall, but they still set the agenda for other media including the Beeb. (And hard copy circulations may fall, but they might read the website).

    True, tho there is a reverse effect too, with more conventional media outlets including the Beeb finding themselves led by social media, covering controversies and topics that are attracting attention on eg Twitter.

    I doubt that people all suddenly decided at once to make trips to areas of significant immigration!

    I’m visualising some very strange coach trips now :-)

    (However, it’s not unrealistic to suppose that those who had recently backed the Tories with headlines recommending last one to leave turn the lights out etc., might have wished to continue were it not made rather difficult by the ERM crisis).

    Where as I see it in much simpler terms – Blair was always going to win his elections and you’ll sell more papers backing the winner.

    Well admittedly, his campaigning might not be very effective when he doesn’t actually campaign. I was on about the occasions when he bothers.

    He’s been campaigning in the local elections each year – and usually losing seats. That makes the 2017 GE start to look like the anomaly, rather than the rule.

    “I do also wonder if 2017 was partly the result of it being a snap election – with the LibDems at a very low point in local government, did the unexpected campaign give the two major UK parties an unusual advantage in terms of having the resource and the manpower to reach people more directly, and thus both achieve more success than usual in rolling up the minor party votes on their sides of the spectrum? Snapping people out of a mid-term mindset and into a “it’s them or us, pick a government” mindset more effectively than when people know an election is coming and minor parties have more time to reach people directly and argue their case for an alternative approach?”

    I don’t doubt it was a factor, much as the fall in UKIP vote following the Ref. probably helped Tories and Labour too. But one has to note how Labour’s vote rose DURING the campaign too.

    That’s what I mean – how much of that was because they were much better placed than smaller LoC parties to directly reach out to a large number of people very quickly, within the timescale of an unexpected election campaign? It would also fit with their support increasing significantly in England but far less in Scotland where they enjoyed no such advantage against the SNP.

  15. Peter W

    “As far as the Euros go I’d certainly vote LibDem if they came off the PV fence and actually advocated remain.”

    In fact, they have very clearly “come off the fence” – as pithily highlighted in the slogan “BolloxtoBrexit”. Yes, they support the PV2 – but as a preliminary to getting there.

  16. Last week a few posters on here were castigating people who had made protest votes or otherwise in the local elections when it should have been about local services and had nothing to do with Brexit.

    I was just pondering the EU democratic deficit and how no-one seems similarly concerned about protest votes in the EU election. Compare and contrast to a General Election which is perhaps the only election where we truly do vote on what sort of society we want.

    I appreciate that some will see this election as a leave/remain referendum but in all honesty I think EU elections have always been this way in terms of the national situation. I think it is not entirely fair to say there in no democracy in the running of the EU but that a series of firewalls have been set up to protect national interests and in doing so there is no similar “will of the European people” that would inspire a debate about what sort of EU we want in the future and get the results actioned.

    How much more enthusiasm would we see if we could specifically be electing MEPs and a President with a mandate and manifesto that they were literally going to implement over the next 5 years? Personally I would love to see an election fought on Protectionism v Free trade, Carbon neutral by 2030 v carbon neutral never, more refugees v less refugees, specific policy on tax avoidance, policies on standardised Corporation tax/Income Tax/VAT rates v leave it to each country.

    The only reason anyone seems to be caring about this election is to make Brexit happen or to stop Brexit. Neither of these things happen as a result of this vote other than the affect those voting numbers might have on MPs in the commons.

    The Brexit Party does not have to come up with any policies other than leave and yet it is quite possible they will have many MEPs sitting the full 5 years voting for things that many of their voters may not agree with their stance. Same goes for the pure remain parties where many are working out the best tactical vote rather than anything to do with which remain party has the best policies for the EU parliament or which group they will be allied with. What real power do those MEPs have on the big issues anyway?

    If we want more speed towards carbon neutral or if we didn’t want free trade deals with Canada or Japan or if we want a free trade deal with China/America does it actually matter who we vote for in the EU parliament? The answer I think is no and probably decided among national governments. To make EU elections relevant I think this needs to change, so rather than being decided by our Prime Minister (who was voted in for other reasons) and other heads of state, it’s actually voted on by European voters aware of what an individual or party aims to do.

  17. 2nd referendum doesn’t solve anything for the Tories, will just feed the fire and heat up the frying pan up more.

    If the vote is Remain, then they will be seen as having facilitated that outcome, and will lose both MPs and a lot of their support.

    If the vote is Leave, they are where they are now.

    Referendum is lose, lose for them.

    Better off getting a new Leader with at least some consensus building skills to help get them out of the big, big hole they’ve fug for themselves.

  18. @eor

    “In the context of QT (which was where this started), the approach is to go around the UK and have politicians from the regionally prominent parties on. It doesn’t seem outrageous that most of the shows are therefore from regions of England and featuring politicians from English parties.”

    Not outrageous if you are a British nationalist who sees the nations of the UK as “regions” equivalent to a county or two in England. However, t hat is not a view shared by significant and increasing numbers of people in Scotland, Wales and NI. So British nationalists have a choice: either to accept and adjust to a different understanding of the union or to assert as you and the current UK Government are a more strident, pure British nationalism and see if that strengthens or weakens the union.

    Incidentally, the BBC charter also says:

    “…the BBC should provide duly accurate and
    impartial news, current affairs and factual programming to build people’s
    understanding of all parts of the United Kingdom…”

  19. Brexit on 11% in Scotland in Opinium for both Euro and Westminster although they really are the worst tables to read.

    Although it’s just a subsample it does suggest that the narrative of the Brexit Party hurting the SNP least seems to be holding.

    I not getting over excited about these figures because even if accurate now there is just too much flux at the moment to make any kind of predictions.

    I’ll leave it to others to work out what the Scottish figures would mean north of the border in the Euros or Westminster in terms of seats but on this trend the convergence between Brexit and Indyref 2 is starting to feel like it could be a collision!


  20. Shevii

    “does it actually matter who we vote for in the EU parliament? The answer I think is no and probably decided among national governments.”

    That, I think, is a critical factor. In the structure of the EU, there is a strong element of indirect democracy. States (by which ever voting system they choose) elect the state governments who, in turn, select the Commissioners, and ultimately decide EU policy through the Council of Ministers (whether by QMV or not).

    This Danish study suggests that small states can increase their influence in the decision making process, by the number and quality of the officials in their permanent representation.

    However, the quality and commitment of MEPs still matters (and more important than which domestic party they represent.

    Some are hard-working and play a full part in scrutinising and amending the legislation that passes through the Parliament – while some are lazy, ignorant, pompous, posturing bigots.

    A good MEP can work with colleagues in the EP group, their own permanent representation,,and domestic governments to increase advantage, and decrease disadvantage to their constituency.

    On the major strategic issues, however, you are correct. These are decided through compromise and negotiation between national governments.

  21. Does anyone have a link to the Opinium tables?

  22. Pete B
    Of course the Independents had boots on the ground. But you dont need many boots on the ground to win a small district council ward, just be prepared to spend a month or two working hard at getting elected. It is why there are realtively few Independents in the Mets, where you need a lot of organisation to win a seat if you are not one of tge big two.

  23. Jones

    ” a new Leader with at least some consensus building skills”

    Excellent idea.

    Who, exactly?

  24. Still not got the hang of this phone!


    “Better off getting a new Leader with at least some consensus building skills to help get them out of the big, big hole they’ve fug for themselves.”

    More like a grave. That 22% Westminster VI, if its not an outlier, puts the Cons in a way worse position that even the depths of the early 90’s. Perhaps what we’re witnessing is the very last Conservative government, ever.

  26. @pete b

    “Andrew 111
    Independents gained over 600 seats at the recent local elections, and I don’t suppose many of them had a lot of boots on the ground. The result for Libdems was just a protest vote, with even some Brexiteers voting for them where there was no Independent or Brexit alternative.”

    I think that rather underestimates both the importance of local matters to the 30% that actually bother to turn out for these as well as the effort some independents put in. And note that at ward level you don’t necessarily need huge numbers of boots on ground, just the time and will to go round the neighbourhood.

    Do you have any evidence that leave supporters were voting ld as a protest? That would seem a rather daft thing to do. Ld gaining votes in ‘leave’ areas tends to miss that such areas still usually have around 40% remain support (likely more now).

    Regardless to badge the locals as ‘just a protest vote’ is likely as erroneous as to say it wasn’t a protest at all and entirely down to local issues and work. The reality, as always, is going to be far more nuanced.

  27. @Crossbat

    “I can’t believe that Dianne Abbott isn’t in that Top Ten list of the most appearances on Question Time. Maybe it’s just a recurring nightmare of mine and I’m imagining it!”


    Diane Abbot: Appearances on QT, rough count going through the list posted by Laszlo, soz if I missed any.

    It seems to have gone up again lately since Corbyn. (On the plus side, you don’t see Andrew Neil too often on QT).

    2019 1 so far…
    2018 3
    2017 3
    2016 2
    2015 2
    2014 1
    2013 2
    2012 1
    2011 3
    2010 2
    2009 0
    2008 0
    2007 0
    2006 0

    Didn’t bother counting for the years before 2006…
    (Couldn’t help noticing Thornberry seems to crop up quite a bit lately. And James Cleverly…)

  28. Pete B
    Where i am roughly 50% of thr local vote for the lib Dems is Leave voters. I would not call them “Brexiteers” though, but people for whom Brexit was not the main issue. Nor was the lib dem success in the local elections a protest vote.

    The protest vote was in fact in the referendum, where many people who do not feel strongly about Europe voted Leave because successive goverments had ignored them and times had been hard for years. Lib Dems listen to people at local level and get their votes for positive reasons

  29. Peter
    That link is to Opinium with 23rd April fieldwork

  30. Peter @ 8.03pm

    It looks like Brexit Party are only on 6% in Scotland in those difficult-to-read tables.

    And are only on 13% GB, but note the date – 23 April.

    SNP seem to be 35% if I am tracking the right line.

  31. Peter

    Those were from the previous Opinium poll. I presume we’ll have to wait for Monday for the new tables.

  32. Andrew111

    Snap! I hadn’t spotted your comment.

  33. New POll
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 27% (-6)
    BREX: 20% (+6)
    CON: 19% (-4)
    LDEM: 14% (+7)
    CHUK: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-2)

    via @ComRes, 09 May
    Chgs. w/ 16 Apr
    Tories behind brexit party in westminster poll. At this rate they will be behind the Lib Dems soon too

  34. You folks seen this?

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 27% (-6)
    BREX: 20% (+6)
    CON: 19% (-4)
    LDEM: 14% (+7)
    CHUK: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-2)

    via @ComRes, 09 May
    Chgs. w/ 16 Apr

  35. How people would vote in a General Election – Dail

    IT/Ipsos MRBI POLL:

    FG: 29(-1)
    FF: 26(+2)
    SF: 16(-5)
    Lab: 7(+1)
    Greens: 4(+2)
    S-PBP: 2(-)
    SDs: 2(+1)
    I4C: 2(-)
    Ind/Others: 12(-)

    (+/-) since March 2019
    Sample size: 1,500
    Dates: 07/05/19-09/05/19
    #EP19 #EP2019 #LE19

    Comment: good poll for FF and Labour. SF still ahead of last GE.

  36. if people voted as in the @ComRes 09 May then Lib Dems could pick up a lot of seats.

  37. Good Evening All from a Tory Seat here in Bournemouth East with Tobias as my MP. Lovely day here in the new Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Authority.

    It is an amazing time (that word is over used, I agree) in British Politics; the only parallel I can think of is the effects of Irish Home Rule on the Gladstonian Liberal Party, which split over the Orange Card question, with tragic long term consequences; prophesied by Gladstone in his 1886 Home Rule speech.

  38. @Danny

    “But it was only 30,000 votes more than remain achieved in 1975. Nothing stunning about it, thats 3/1740 or 0.2% more than the record set by remain. Tiny increase.”

    The Leave vote in 2016 was 37% of those eligible to vote. The turnout of 72% was a bit better than recent GEs, but not particularly impressive in historical terms. Something like 13 million voters sat it out.

    Then of course you’ve got to factor in the scandalously high numbers of people who are not registered to vote and don’t appear on the electoral role. That’s conservatively estimated to be about 6 million people at every election, maybe more according to some sources.

    So, about 19 million people didn’t participate in the 2016 EU Referendum, meaning the will of the people and the biggest mandate in British political history looked like this:-

    Winner: 19 million people who couldn’t be ar*ed to register and/or vote.

    Second: 17 million people who wanted to leave the EU.

    Third: 16 million people who voted to remain the EU.

    Utterly overwhelming win for Leave, then. This was 3 years ago, by the way, just in case anyone had forgotten.

  39. Prof Howard

    It’s quite fascinating watching the disintegration of an assumed political norm in another polity.

    While ostriches in their main parties will choose not to notice, I wonder how long FPTP can be maintained there.

  40. Oldnat

    Hard to say. I think those parties will look first to change their leaders.

  41. Alarm bells will be ringing in Tory HQ about thee polls and to some extent Labour too. Perhaps Jo Swinson or Nigel Farage could be PM

  42. Labour voting intention plummeting along with the Tories..

    I wonder if the Lib Dems could come second in the Euros??

  43. European Parliament voting intention: COM Res did a EP poll too, Labour will be a little happier about this one. Interesting that Labour /Lib Dem VI not much different to the westminster poll, Brexit Party polling a lot lower than opinium,
    BREX: 27% (-1)
    LAB: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 14% (+3)
    CON: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (+2)
    CHUK: 6% (-2)
    UKIP: 3% (+1)

    via @ComRes, 09 May
    Chgs. w/ 07 May

    19 replies 128 retweets 196 likes
    Reply 19

  44. Peter Cairns

    Dunno how good “Flavible Politics” seat projection is, but their projection for Scotland looks like 53 SNP : 5 SLD : and Ian Murray, yet again the sole SLab survivor.

  45. That last post referred to their projection from the Opinium May poll.

  46. Prof Howard

    “I think those parties will look first to change their leaders.”

    I’m sure you are correct. I think they will go through that process several times, before they consider that if they don’t hang together to push through PR, they will surely hang separately.

  47. Oldnat the system may change if Lib Dems had a leader with a bit more strength than Nick Clegg – who settled for something very short last time. He should have taken up Gordon Browns offer of PR without a referendum.

  48. Interesting that the Sunday Mail (sister paper to the Daily Record, and bastion of SLab) has chosen to advocate that its readers vote for the Scottish Green Party in the EU elections.

    Whether that’s genuine support, or not is a matter for speculation.

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